Author

Emma Lawson

“Emma also makes regular comments to print, radio and TV media on currencies and global financial markets. ”

Emma is a Senior Currency Strategist and works with the global currency strategy team. Emma advises the Bank’s dealing rooms and clients on the Australian dollar and global currencies more generally.

Emma also makes regular comments to print, radio and TV media on currencies and global financial markets.

Emma has a Masters degree in Economics from the University of Adelaide.

Emma has been at the NAB since 2011 and previously has thirteen years experience working for global investment banks, as an economist and currency strategist, in Sydney, London and more recently in Hong Kong.

Recently Published Articles

Markets Today: Uneasy calm

Markets Today: Uneasy calm

30 September 2015

A quieter night overnight, with no large moves, but no strong reversals either. US equities eeked out fractional gains, while Europe was still weak. Yields were a little lower and currencies in G10 for the most part flat. Oil did rise and Glencore, yesterday’s prophet of doom, bounced 17%.

Markets Today: Uneasy calm
Markets Today: A big week

Markets Today: A big week

28 September 2015

Friday’s tone was set by Fed Chair Yellen, early in the Sydney session. In this, she backed up the Fed speakers post the FOMC, which have reiterated that the Fed are looking to raise interest rates this year.

Markets Today: A big week
Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses

Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses

23 September 2015

It’s a bit of pick and mix for explanations regarding market moves in the last 24 hours. There has been no top tier economic data, no new speeches, or surprises.

Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses
Markets Today: Scaring the Horses

Markets Today: Scaring the Horses

21 September 2015

Not sure this was the reaction the Fed were looking for when they decided to pause and give a shout out to the struggling EM economies and global economic risks.

Markets Today: Scaring the Horses
Markets Today:  Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled

Markets Today: Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled

18 September 2015

The time arrived but the Fed couldn’t bring itself to raise rates for the first time since the Financial Crisis. In a hugely anticipated FOMC meeting, the market had priced just over a quarter percent chance of a hike, and just under 50% of economists expected a move, but they remained on hold.

Markets Today:  Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled
Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…

Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…

17 September 2015

Another relatively calm and comfortable session heading into the FOMC meeting. With markets and economists split on the outcome, something will move if the Fed does, or it doesn’t. So enjoy the quiet day today, ahead of tomorrow.

Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…
Markets Today: Do It Already

Markets Today: Do It Already

16 September 2015

Do It Already is the headline of a Bloomberg article today, but mirrors the sentiment in articles across the press and the discussions on our own floor. Markets are like rabbits in spotlights, uncertain as to which way to shift, just in case there is a move by the Fed.

Markets Today: Do It Already
Markets Today: Where is everybody?

Markets Today: Where is everybody?

15 September 2015

There is a flurry of opinions, newsflow, chatter and speculation about the Fed this week, but at the end of the day, there isn’t much that is new to report for markets. Still waiting for the FOMC.

Markets Today: Where is everybody?
Markets Today: More Waiting

Markets Today: More Waiting

14 September 2015

It’s been relatively quiet from Friday and likely to stay that way for a few more days yet. The news flow has been limited and what there has been, has been clouded by one-offs.

Markets Today: More Waiting
Markets Today: Spring has sprung

Markets Today: Spring has sprung

9 September 2015

The global financial markets are breathing a sigh of relief and enjoying the advent of Spring here in the Southern Hemisphere. Happy days: the Fed may wait a little while before raising rates and China seems to have everything sorted.

Markets Today: Spring has sprung
Markets Today: Draining reserve pools

Markets Today: Draining reserve pools

8 September 2015

With the US out for Labour Day and not a lot of economic data elsewhere, it was a relatively quiet night. Market moves were somewhat restrained, awaiting guidance from the upcoming FOMC meeting (next week) and how China’s economy deals with the current uncertainty.

Markets Today: Draining reserve pools
Markets Today: The Merry Go Around

Markets Today: The Merry Go Around

2 September 2015

Things aren’t really getting better. The circular theme of markets continues, with equities weakening, weighing on broader risk, weighing on currencies, weighing on equities. And so it goes. While the Fed waits to decide to raise rates, this is not helping the global markets.

Markets Today: The Merry Go Around
Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)

Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)

28 August 2015

In the immortal words of Johnny Cash (singing) “I ‘m going to Jackson…” Nope, can’t do it justice, although Ray (MT’s co-author) is definitely having an influence on me. But we do see the central bankers heading to Jackson Hole (JH)

Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)
Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty

Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty

27 August 2015

Difficult huh? You thought you knew which direction this was all going? After big moves there can often be big reversals. It doesn’t mean that the underlying issue is resolved but rather is often a factor of positioning, liquidity and uncertainty. We have a jumble of all three going on.

Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty
Markets Today: Renminbi Me

Markets Today: Renminbi Me

13 August 2015

It’s getting interesting. And it is likely to remain that way for a little while yet. China’s move to a more market orientated currency is causing volatility and uncertainty and it might take a while until there is clarity.

Markets Today: Renminbi Me
Markets Today: Restorative or War?

Markets Today: Restorative or War?

12 August 2015

Markets are a little wary of the implications of China’s devaluation yesterday, combine that with uncertainty around the Fed’s upcoming interest rate hike and mix in Northern Hemisphere summer liquidity and you have a slightly uneasy, conflicting set of market moves overnight.

Markets Today: Restorative or War?
Markets Today: Not yet, but soon

Markets Today: Not yet, but soon

29 July 2015

Sitting, waiting for the Fed, in summer markets. That pretty much characterises the last day, which was surprising after the angst of the prior period.

Markets Today: Not yet, but soon
Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking

Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking

15 July 2015

Back to our day jobs, with a reprieve on being political or equity analysts, we can return to the global economy. Markets also chose to ignore the after-party cleaning up in Greece, to focus on central bank speak – both actual and what is to come.

Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking
Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC

Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC

9 July 2015

While being glued to the long running soap opera of the Greek debt situation, there is another, more mini-series like, show going on in the East. And like Netflix versus NBC (who shows Days of our Lives) it has crept up and has captured everyone’s attention.

Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC
Markets Today: More homework needed

Markets Today: More homework needed

8 July 2015

Markets were disappointed by the lack of progress in Greece overnight; albeit they should be used to that by now. It did lead to a big drop in European yields and equity market, EUR also underperformed for much of the day.

Markets Today: More homework needed
Markets Today: The Real Thing

Markets Today: The Real Thing

29 June 2015

Well, we didn’t see that coming, neither did the Institutions (nee Troika), nor the markets. Greece has pulled the negotiations plug at the last minute and put the deal to a national referendum (5 July) AFTER the deadline for payment (1 July).

Markets Today: The Real Thing
Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed

Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed

24 June 2015

All is well, solved, sorted; just not signed. Markets are pretty content with the idea that Greece and its creditors will do a deal before the June 30 deadline. And the Fed will hike in September, and China can avoid an equity market accident.

Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed
Markets Today: Waiting for Godot

Markets Today: Waiting for Godot

23 June 2015

Except he never came. We wait, there is a vast amount of commentary and expectation, and even a fair degree of optimism. And nothing might happen for a few days at least. But in this case, there will be an endpoint.

Markets Today: Waiting for Godot
Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself

Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself

18 June 2015

The FOMC meeting was a bit of a mark-to-reality exercise for markets, after perhaps getting a little ahead of itself. This applies both to the intra-day moves and the direction over recent weeks.

Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself
Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation

Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation

17 June 2015

There is a nervous tinge to the commentary overnight, but market moves have been relatively light, and the same is expected for today. Equities are modestly higher in the US and Europe, yields are lower generally, while the USD outperformed.

Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation
Markets Today: All about the yields

Markets Today: All about the yields

10 June 2015

You’d think it was a quiet night overnight: US equities were flat, European stocks a little down and currencies traded in a very tight range.

Markets Today: All about the yields
Markets Today: Got To Expect it

Markets Today: Got To Expect it

4 June 2015

Well if Mr Draghi says it is so, we’d better get used to it. Bond yields, particularly in Germany, continued their rise yesterday; despite the ECB’s Draghi telling us that they are committed to their QE program.

Markets Today: Got To Expect it
Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields

Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields

3 June 2015

Big moves overnight, not all of them consistent, but they may have caught out investors positioning for a rise in risk aversion. As news of a possible deal between Greece and its creditors came in, bond yields – led by Germany, rose sharply.

Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields
Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs

Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs

27 May 2015

Seemingly there were many “light bulb” moments overnight, when competing ideas, that have been around awhile, suddenly gain traction and markets run with them.

Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs
Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock

Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock

26 May 2015

Tick tock, tick tock – that’s both the sound of time passing on one of the quietest days in the markets but also that of the countdown to Greece needing to come to an agreement with its creditors.

Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock
Market Today: and relax

Market Today: and relax

15 May 2015

After Wednesday night’s excitement, there was a collective deep breath overnight, with some of the preceding moves reversed. There was little newsflow but what there was allowed for some relaxation of the prior day’s anxiety.

Market Today: and relax
Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band

Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band

8 May 2015

If you pull an elastic band hard enough, it will snap back and might hurt. It seems we are getting that in yields, but we know that the band runs out of energy at some point.

Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band
Markets Today: What a tangled web

Markets Today: What a tangled web

7 May 2015

We are likely in for an interesting debate ahead: Central banks lower policy accommodation to astonishing levels and then suggest that markets might be a touch expensive.

Markets Today: What a tangled web
Markets Today: May Day

Markets Today: May Day

1 May 2015

Today is a holiday in much of Asia and Europe (Happy May Day) but that doesn’t stop the dataflow.

Markets Today: May Day
End of Summer complete with snooze

End of Summer complete with snooze

2 September 2014

It was particularly quiet overnight, with the US on holidays. The poor European and UK data didn’t worry markets much, which, in the main, were taking a little nap

End of Summer complete with snooze