Business Research & Insights

A quieter night overnight, with no large moves, but no strong reversals either. US equities eeked out fractional gains, while Europe was still weak. Yields were a little lower and currencies in G10 for the most part flat. Oil did rise and Glencore, yesterday’s prophet of doom, bounced 17%.

Friday’s tone was set by Fed Chair Yellen, early in the Sydney session. In this, she backed up the Fed speakers post the FOMC, which have reiterated that the Fed are looking to raise interest rates this year.

It’s a bit of pick and mix for explanations regarding market moves in the last 24 hours. There has been no top tier economic data, no new speeches, or surprises.

Not sure this was the reaction the Fed were looking for when they decided to pause and give a shout out to the struggling EM economies and global economic risks.

The time arrived but the Fed couldn’t bring itself to raise rates for the first time since the Financial Crisis. In a hugely anticipated FOMC meeting, the market had priced just over a quarter percent chance of a hike, and just under 50% of economists expected a move, but they remained on hold.

Another relatively calm and comfortable session heading into the FOMC meeting. With markets and economists split on the outcome, something will move if the Fed does, or it doesn’t. So enjoy the quiet day today, ahead of tomorrow.

Do It Already is the headline of a Bloomberg article today, but mirrors the sentiment in articles across the press and the discussions on our own floor. Markets are like rabbits in spotlights, uncertain as to which way to shift, just in case there is a move by the Fed.

There is a flurry of opinions, newsflow, chatter and speculation about the Fed this week, but at the end of the day, there isn’t much that is new to report for markets. Still waiting for the FOMC.

It’s been relatively quiet from Friday and likely to stay that way for a few more days yet. The news flow has been limited and what there has been, has been clouded by one-offs.

The global financial markets are breathing a sigh of relief and enjoying the advent of Spring here in the Southern Hemisphere. Happy days: the Fed may wait a little while before raising rates and China seems to have everything sorted.

With the US out for Labour Day and not a lot of economic data elsewhere, it was a relatively quiet night. Market moves were somewhat restrained, awaiting guidance from the upcoming FOMC meeting (next week) and how China’s economy deals with the current uncertainty.

Things aren’t really getting better. The circular theme of markets continues, with equities weakening, weighing on broader risk, weighing on currencies, weighing on equities. And so it goes. While the Fed waits to decide to raise rates, this is not helping the global markets.