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NAB Group Economics

NAB Group Economics

“A leading team of economists who provide updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends”

NAB’s Group Economics consists of a leading team of economists who provide accurate, timely and relevant updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends.

Headed up by the Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, the team is comprised of three distinct departments:

- Australian economics and commodities
- International economics
- Industry economics

The team publish a wealth of content including reports, surveys, forecasts and indexes.

RECENTLY PUBLISHED ARTICLES

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war has reverberated through financial markets. The policy response will be important – we now expect two further 25bp cuts in the fed funds rate this year. China is also likely to use policy measures to offset any tariff impact, including allowing further depreciation of its currency.

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war – with the US imposing a 10% tariff on most remaining China imports – has reverberated through financial markets.

Below-trend growth and low inflation – another rate cut ahead.

We’re seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month – business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don’t point to an improvement in the near term.

Have dwelling values finally found a floor in July?

Overall market sentiment lifted 9 points to +7 in Q2. It rose in all states (bar SA/NT), and was highest in VIC & NSW.

US economic growth slowed in Q2 2019 – will this trend continue? One implication is that the Fed will cut rates.

Despite an up-tick in confidence, conditions deteriorate.

Conditions ease further, while confidence increases.

Growth eased across all states and territories last year and early 2019, but the last few months have seen some improvement.

Current market sentiment among property professionals still negative but lifted in Q2 post the Federal election. Future expectations also improved sharply, reflecting a stronger outlook for prices and rents.

Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.

Our sense of life worth improved and we ‘felt’ less worried about our finances in Q2.

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