NAB Group Economics

NAB Group Economics

“A leading team of economists who provide updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends”

NAB’s Group Economics consists of a leading team of economists who provide accurate, timely and relevant updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends.

Headed up by the Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, the team is comprised of three distinct departments:

- Australian economics and commodities
- International economics
- Industry economics

The team publish a wealth of content including reports, surveys, forecasts and indexes.


Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

Growth remains above trend, but risks a concern.

Last month we saw our national index move through the tenth straight month of falling home values.

An unchanged economic outlook, but downside risks building.

The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.

The US economy grew strongly in Q2 2018, driven by a rebound in consumption and further solid business investment growth.

In seasonally adjusted terms, at 1.2%, online retail sales slowed in June. The 12 months to growth rate is also a bit lower.

Business conditions ease slightly.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated in Q2. The Index fell 4 points to +17 but remains well above its long-term average (+3).

Favourable business conditions persist.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.5% in June on a month-on-month basis, following gain of 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%).

The global economy remains in reasonable shape right now despite some pressures on Emerging Market economies.

CoreLogic’s national housing market index showed a remarkable reversal in housing market conditions over the past year.

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