Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.
Conditions continue to ease and confidence turns negative
The strong ABS print in February exceeded our expectations and indeed those of the market. It’s fair to say that we are sceptical whether such strong growth will continue.
NAB’s view is that prices will decline further over the next year or so – led by further declines in Sydney and Melbourne. We also see the adjustment continuing in an orderly manner, with prices remaining well up on 5 years ago.