NAB Group Economics

NAB Group Economics

“A leading team of economists who provide updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends”

NAB’s Group Economics consists of a leading team of economists who provide accurate, timely and relevant updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends.

Headed up by the Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, the team is comprised of three distinct departments:

- Australian economics and commodities
- International economics
- Industry economics

The team publish a wealth of content including reports, surveys, forecasts and indexes.


Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) fell 9 points to a 2-year low +8 in Q3, but is still well above long-term average levels (+3).

The business conditions index decreased 2pts to +13 in 2018 Q3, but remains well above its long-run average. Business confidence also fell, declining 4pts to +3 index points, a little below its historical average.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.2% in September on a month-on-month basis, its weakest result since April this year. Five out of six major categories grew in the month; while other retailing contracted.

The lure of cash remains, even as younger Australians embrace cashless payments.

In US dollar terms, the NAB non-rural commodity price index rose marginally in Q3 2018 – increasing by 0.4% qoq. The strong upturn in the first quarter of this year contributed to a much more significant increase in year-on-year terms – up by 8.2%.

The bigger picture – a global and Australian economic perspective.

The Australian housing market continued to weaken over the month, with national dwelling values falling 0.5% in September, marking twelve months of consistently falling values across CoreLogic’s national hedonic home value index.

Solid headline growth masks divergent trends.

A strong first half and continuing near term momentum but slowing into the medium term.

Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.

The NAB Residential Property Index fell sharply for the second straight quarter in Q3 2018, down 15 to a 7-year low -9 points, and its first negative read since mid-2012.

Our wellbeing is up, but Australia lags behind the UK and we’re still time poor with some of us willing to pay up to $131 for an extra hour in our day.

Recent tariff announcements are a modest negative for growth in US and China although Chinese policy will look to offset the impact.

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