NAB Group Economics

NAB Group Economics

“A leading team of economists who provide updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends”

NAB’s Group Economics consists of a leading team of economists who provide accurate, timely and relevant updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends.

Headed up by the Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, the team is comprised of three distinct departments:

- Australian economics and commodities
- International economics
- Industry economics

The team publish a wealth of content including reports, surveys, forecasts and indexes.


Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.

Amid conflicting trade signals, signs growth is stabilising

Private demand still “running on empty”. Broadly unchanged forecasts but concerns to the downside. Fiscal policy help unlikely.

The housing market recovery has continued to gather some pace through with our national index up 1.7% last month.

Business conditions tracked sideways in the month, and appear to have stabilised at low levels, after declining significantly between mid-2018 and 2019.

Agribusiness conditions flat despite strength of lamb and mutton.

Little support from fiscal policy to see further cuts in February and June, with a move to QE in the second half of 2020 a real prospect.

Consumer growth slows further.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that after two solid months of growth in August and September, online retail sales weakened in October.

Consumption growth remains weak.

The waiting game – what’s next for US-China “Phase One” trade deal?

Our forecast points to a moderate improvement for retail in October, although this may be partly due to higher retail prices – as measured in our monthly business survey.

Hopes of a US-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement have lifted financial markets. While in Australia we’ve lowered our near-term forecast for growth.

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