NAB Group Economics

NAB Group Economics

“A leading team of economists who provide updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends”

NAB’s Group Economics consists of a leading team of economists who provide accurate, timely and relevant updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends.

Headed up by the Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, the team is comprised of three distinct departments:

- Australian economics and commodities
- International economics
- Industry economics

The team publish a wealth of content including reports, surveys, forecasts and indexes.


Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.

Conditions continue to ease and confidence turns negative

The strong ABS print in February exceeded our expectations and indeed those of the market. It’s fair to say that we are sceptical whether such strong growth will continue.

NAB’s view is that prices will decline further over the next year or so – led by further declines in Sydney and Melbourne. We also see the adjustment continuing in an orderly manner, with prices remaining well up on 5 years ago.

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 1.9% qoq in Q2 2019.

While the pace of falls has slowed in March, the scope of the downturn has become more geographically widespread.

Personal income tax cuts were the headline of the 2019 Federal Budget – along with a change to super contributions and a new work test age.

Small business won tax cuts, an increase to the instant asset write-off, increased infrastructure spending and investment in apprenticeships.

Big spending for drought and flood relief were a feature of this year’s Federal Budget, along with a Future Drought Fund and an Emergency Response Fund.

Mental health, aged care and frontline and primary care were key initiatives for the health sector this year.

Pre and post-secondary schools received a funding boost, with non-government schools receiving 60% of school funding for 2019-20.

The budget announces $100b of infrastructure spending over the next 10 years.

Conditions rise while confidence continues a below average run.

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