Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the economy
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NAB’s Group Economics consists of a leading team of economists who provide accurate, timely and relevant updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends.
Headed up by the Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, the team is comprised of three distinct departments:
– Australian economics and commodities
– International economics
– Industry economics
The team publish a wealth of content including reports, surveys, forecasts and indexes.
Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the economy
Webinar
Growth subdued but will improve in late 2024
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China confirms an unchanged growth target for 2024 but headwinds will make it much harder to reach
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4 in 10 SMEs think AI will make their business more profitable.
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Our monthly transaction data suggest spending was more subdued in February
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Conditions rise but confidence, orders remain low
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Achieving gender equity through economic empowerment.
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Inflation – two steps forward, one step back
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Welcome to CoreLogic’s housing market update for March 2024.
Article
NAB specialists help brokers support business customers to mitigate market risk and grow. Originally published on Australian Broker on 05 Feb 2024.
Article
Growth slows in line with NAB’s forecast
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is expected to ease in Q1 2024
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Reports of US supply chain realignment from China to Mexico are overblown
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A slow end to 2023
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Growth rebounded in January from a significant drop in December
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The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell in the final quarter of 2023.
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NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides his thoughts on the Australian and Global economy.
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Commercial property sentiment improved in Q4 but remained weak and below average
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Labour mobility has slowed as concerns around job security rise.
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Rate cuts expected in 2024 but inflation path remains uncertain
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RBA on hold with inflation & labour market easing
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Our monthly transaction data showed rise in spending in January in seasonally adjusted terms, driven by a rebound in retail spending after the fall seen in December.
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Conditions dip below average, price growth ticks up
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Tougher target: China faces a more challenging outlook in 2024
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Welcome to CoreLogic’s housing market update for February 2024.
Article
SME confidence negative as conditions soften
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A tailored trade and working capital solution developed by NAB in collaboration with broker Max Wang has given pet care company Australia Talentail the confidence to expand into Asia Pacific markets.
Article
Weaker global growth in 2024 to drive modest commodity demand
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Good news on growth and inflation – rate cut expectations brought forward
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In Q4 the NAB Residential Property Index continued its recent upward trajectory
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Effects of monetary policy increasingly evident
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We observed a contraction in online sales growth in December, following strong October and November results.
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This month NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides his thoughts on the Australian and Global economy.
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Our Forward View this month covers both the Australian and Global economies.
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Our monthly transaction data showed a fall in spending in December.
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Business conditions cool as retail price growth slows
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The NAB Consumer Stress Index rose for the fifth straight quarter, the highest since Q1 2020 and above the survey average for the first time in almost 4 years.
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China beat its modest growth target in 2023, but this will be harder to achieve in 2024
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NAB now expects an unchanged cash rate until late 2024
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There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.
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Weaker inflation boosts rate cut hopes
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Slow growth to persist in Q4 and into 2024
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China likely to hit its growth target this year, but next year looks more challenging
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Our monthly transaction data showed a pickup in spending in November, particularly in retail.
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Confidence slides but conditions still above average
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Welcome to CoreLogic’s housing market update for December 2023.
Article
Growth, inflation and labour market all easing
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A further slowing in growth
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Below trend growth to continue
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Commercial broking is as much a business strategy as it is a skill set, writes Chris Thomas, executive commercial broker and equipment finance sales at NAB. Article originally published in Australian Broker on 14/11/23.
Article
Financial hardship rises for the 6th consecutive quarter
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Online retail sales grew strongly in October, following on from a rebound in September.
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Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.
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Global growth resilient in Q3 but set to slow going into 2024
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Growth outlook upgraded but 4.6% rate peak ahead
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Bond-fuelled lending to support near-term growth but challenges remain unaddressed
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Our monthly transaction data showed a fall in spending in October across a number of categories including retail as well as a range of services sectors.
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Confidence remains low despite healthy conditions
Welcome to CoreLogic’s housing market update for November 2023.
Article
Growth holding up but subdued year ahead
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NAB expects follow up hike in February 2024
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Q3 GDP growth very strong but not sustainable
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Searching for some signal in the noise – digging deeper into China’s Q3 GDP data
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Challenging conditions (particularly in Office and Retail markets) weighed further on commercial property market sentiment in Q3…
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How do young people really feel about life beyond school including their career goals, potential barriers and optimism about the future? Find out more in the latest NAB Education Insights Special Report (Part 3) available for download.
Report
There was a broad-based rebound in online retail sales in September
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Household financial stress eases after rising for the past 6 quarters as Australians grow more accustomed to a number of ongoing pressures, but financial concerns are still climbing among lower income earners.
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SME conditions improve but smallest firms still negative
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The NAB Residential Property Index maintained its upward momentum in Q3.
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Cost of living stress eases after rising for 7 consecutive quarters
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Labour costs rise as price inflation remains elevated
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Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.
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China’s third quarter growth beat expectations; 2023 forecast edges back above target
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Inflation yet to be defeated – policy rates could stay high for longer
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Growth to remain subdued, but avoid a major downturn
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Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the slowing down of the economy.
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Job switching & intentions, employee satisfaction, working from home & perceptions of collaboration & productivity.
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Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with growth in September following on from fairly strong nominal growth in prior months.
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CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index recorded a 0.8% rise in September as the recovery trend moved through an eighth consecutive month of growth.
Article
Revising up short-term growth; Fed cuts delayed
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Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity
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On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, growth contracted in August
Report
Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.
Article
Central banks may be at their peaks, but energy prices pose a risk to disinflation trend
Rural businesses are looking for equipment funding solutions that meet their needs in an evolving environment. Article originally published in The Advisor on 20/09/23
Article
Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience
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The national Home Value Index rose 0.8% in August marking a sixth consecutive month in this growth phase.
Article
Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with July and August both showing fairly strong growth in consumer spending overall.
Article
Employment index rises as resilience continues
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Scams: Education, training & slower payment processing to minimise scams and cybersecurity risks.
Report
Growth remained subdued in Q2.
Report
Are authorities unable or unwilling to address the real problem in China’s economy?
Report
Q3 off to a strong start even as inflation eases
Report
NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in July.
Report
NAB sees a +0.5% q/q (1.9% y/y) GDP print for Q2 2023 which will confirm the slowing in domestic demand we have seen across other indicators. Both ABS retail sales data and our own transactions data points to a flat outcome for consumption following 0.2% growth in Q1.
An exclusive webinar on the Commercial Property Development Market. Watch now.
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Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.
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The impact on SMEs
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How big is the issue for SMEs?
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Soft landing hopes rise but headwinds remain
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Soft start to Q3 signals a growing chance that China could miss its annual growth target
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Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left
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Our monthly transaction data showed a surprisingly positive result for July, with spending still holding up.
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The national Home Value Index rose 0.7% in July marking a fifth consecutive month in the recovery trend to-date. Since finding a floor in February, the national index is up 4.1%, following a -9.1% decline from record highs in April 2022.
Conditions still above average despite warning signs.
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Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24
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RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely
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SMEs see conditions weaken in Q2 as economy slows
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in June.
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Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives
Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?
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Commercial property market sentiment and confidence moderates in Q2 amid growing economic uncertainty…
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The NAB Residential Property Index bounced sharply in Q2.
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Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.
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Supply issues easing but labour still hard to find
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China’s weak Q2 growth presages weaker global growth
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A slow second half, but persistent inflation
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China’s recovery lost momentum in Q2 and the outlook for the second half remains cloudy
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Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the challenging times ahead.
Webinar
Any significant change to global supply chains will take time
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Our monthly transaction data showed a broadly flat result for June, with a lift in hospitality spending but a fall in retail.
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Australian housing values have moved through a fourth month of recovery with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index rising 1.1% in June, decelerating slightly from the 1.2% gain recorded in May.
Conditions still above average despite warning signs
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Concern over cost of living climbs again as ‘considered consumers’ focus on the things they value most.
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Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew rapidly this month, following on from very subdued growth over the past two months.
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After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.
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Global growth set to slow as monetary policy bites
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4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather
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Fed pauses in June, but another hike is likely
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Weakness in domestic demand led to underperformance in May
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Is China finding new markets for its exports?
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Our monthly transaction data showed a small rise in spending in May (in seasonally adjusted terms), driven by discretionary spending.
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Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks
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Worrying signs of a slowing in activity
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The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.
Report
A soft start to 2023
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A slow start for growth in 2023
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Activity – and inflation – resilience continues
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How do young people really feel about school? Find out more in the latest NAB Education Insights Special Report (Part 2) available for download.
Report
NAB Online Retail Sales Index was flat in month-on-month in April, after a mild contraction in March.
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Reports of a property rebound appear premature
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How big is the issue for SMEs?
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The impact on SMEs
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.
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Global growth set to slow from robust Q1 results
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Base effects inflate growth in April; still waiting on demand to recover
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Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response
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Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months
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It’s looking increasingly likely that Australian housing values have bottomed out, with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index having posted a second consecutive monthly rise. April’s half a percent increase, follows a 0.6% lift in March, leaving the Home Value Index 1.0% higher over the past three months.
Report
Our economists stayed up all night so they could break down the Federal Budget for Australian businesses. Watch their take.
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Business owners can look forward to energy bill relief, cash flow support and an extension of the instant asset write-off as part of this year's Federal Budget measures.
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It was a big Budget for health, with significant support for bulk billing GPs, a focus on prescription costs and salary increases to attract more aged care workers.
Report
Biosecurity was a big focus for this year's Federal Budget, with agribusinesses also set to benefit from energy bill relief and the instant asset write-off.
Report
The 2023 Federal Budget signalled increased overall spending for unis, TAFE and vocational training post the reviews of the uni sector and the National Skills Agreement.
Report
Our monthly transaction data showed another small fall in spending in April (in seasonally adjusted terms), largely driven by discretionary services categories.
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Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.
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The NAB Commercial Property Index improved a little further in Q1 but economic uncertainty seems to be weighing on confidence.
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The Federal Government is signalling its budget will address cost-of-living pressures. But it’s also clear it wants to avoid spending up big. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster shares key insights into what that might mean for Australian businesses, families and individuals.
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth contracted in March, following the strong February result.
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Q1 GDP slowdown driven by inventories
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How prevalent are attacks & scams & how are businesses & consumers responding?
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Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.
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Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?
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Little improvement in cost pressures for SMEs in Q1
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Constraints still tight but prices past their peak
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We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.
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Bounce in global growth in Q1 won’t last
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Services sector supports growth rebound in Q1, as base effects boost consumption
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Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge
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Australian agricultural commodity prices took another downward turn last month. The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 3.6% month-on-month on lower beef, lamb, canola, dairy and wool prices. The index is now 19.7% below year-ago levels.
Report
Consumers continue to balance cost of living against job security
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The NAB Residential Property Index recovered slightly, but is still well below the survey average and down sharply from the same time last year.
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After a six-month period where the downwards trend in housing values consistently lost steam, CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index posted the first month-on-month rise since April 2022, up 0.6% in March. Dwelling values were higher across the four largest capital cities and most of the broad ‘rest-of-state’ regions, led by a 1.4% gain in Sydney.
Report
Our monthly transaction data suggests spending turned a corner in March with total spending declining, after holding up through more than a year of high inflation and rising interest rates.
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Conditions hold up, price pressures ease
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Tentative recovery: Chinese outbound tourism continues to face constraints
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The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain
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Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms
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Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth accelerated in February, after returning to growth in January.
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The growing importance of sustainability as a consumer issue. Are SMEs ready?
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Our global forecasts are little changed this month. Also, our outlook for the Australian economy is broadly unchanged.
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Bounce in Q1 2023; but bank stress highlights weaker outlook
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Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the challenging times ahead.
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Australia passing through a possible turning point
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Fed caught between strong data & bank panic
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Modest reopening rebound in early 2023 with consumers yet to re-emerge
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Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending was broadly flat in February.
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Confidence volatile but conditions still strong
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A subtle 0.3% rise in Sydney dwelling values was the most significant driver of the national deceleration, however, the loss of downwards momentum was broad-based.
Report
Step down: China’s cut its growth target to a multi-decade low
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?
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The NAB Commercial Property Index improved in Q4, but is still negative overall and trending well below the survey average.
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How do young people really feel about their lives? Find out more in the latest NAB Education Insights Special Report (Part 1) available for download.
Report
Growth slows as consumption softens
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In month-on-month terms, growth returned to the NAB Online Retail Sales Index, following on from a weak December result.
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A solid outcome to round out 2022
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A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.
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Inflation is slowing but is still yet to be tamed
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Rising rates to see slower growth ahead
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Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.
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Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending picked back up in January after a small fall in December, with strength across most spending categories.
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Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%
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New-year confidence boost as resilience continues
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January data surprise = higher fed funds rate
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COVID’s rapid spread may allow a faster economic rebound in 2023
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Conditions eased for SMEs in late 2022.
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The housing market started the year where it left off in 2022, chalking up the ninth consecutive monthly drop in Australian home values. The national Home Value Index was down -1% over the first month of the year following a larger -1.1% fall in December.
Report
Consumer stress rises as cost-of-living pressures continue to bite.
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How big is the issue for SMEs & what are they doing to overcome these challenges?
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The impact on SMEs & how business is responding.
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The NAB Residential Property Index fell for the third straight quarter as the downturn in national housing prices deepened
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Confidence down with constraints remaining tight
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December after two months of growth in October and November.
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Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending softened in December after a solid rise in November.
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Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed
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Q4 GDP looks solid but weakness emerging
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Transition away from zero-COVID could boost growth in 2023, however needs to rebalance towards consumption
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.
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Australian agricultural commodity prices retreated on average last month, with the NAB Rural Commodities Index down 2.6% m/m in November.
Report
Latest COVID-19 wave impacting activity in Q4; COVID policy pivot could provide boost in 2023 (after transition period).
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With inflation still high, policy rate hikes to slow growth in ‘23
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Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the challenging times ahead.
Webinar
Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.
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Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3
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Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.
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Domestic demand solid early in Q4
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Post-COVID normalisation continues.
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CoreLogic's national Home Value Index moved through a seventh month of decline last month with values dropping -1.0%, bringing values approximately -$53,400 below April's peak.
Report
US chips controls could constrain China’s tech development goals
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Convenient access to equipment finance through NAB helped bulk material supplier and transport company EMM Group jump at an opportunity. In equipment-intensive businesses, having fast and convenient access to finance provides flexibility that can improve business results. It’s a fact that Andrew Halloran, owner of EMM Group, which supplies quarry, soil, garden and construction materials, […]
Slowing growth as consumption, trade normalise
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Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index is back in positive territory.
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Financial hardship in Australia rose for the second straight quarter in Q3.
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China refines, not abandons, zero-COVID and remains without an exit strategy
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The impacts on business & supporting local manufacturing to address them
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Australian agricultural commodity prices have posted a slight uptick in the last two months, as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index.
Report
We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.
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NAB’s Commercial Property Index shifted back into negative territory in Q3.
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Further monetary tightening to significantly slow growth in 2023.
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Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.
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Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.
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CoreLogic’s national home value index moved through its sixth month of decline last month, with values down a further 1.2%, taking the cumulative drop from the market peak to 6.0%.
Report
Conditions still strong but confidence weaker
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Q3 GDP – economy growing again (for now).
Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.
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Could Xi Jinping extend his leadership beyond his third term?
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Market sentiment: is it a good time to buy, sell, renovate & other property intentions
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index returns to growth in September
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Easing conditions for small firms, despite strong demand
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Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%
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Growth rebounded in Q3, but base effects flattered the results
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Conditions holding up as constraints tighten
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Consumer stress has fallen despite rising concerns over the cost of living as job pressures ease further
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COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere
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Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.
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Central banks inflation priority leads to weak growth outlook
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Our new monthly consumer spending analysis shows spending has remained strong over recent months, supported by rebounding hospitality spending and discretionary spending on travel and other activities.
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Near term resilience but a slowing ahead
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National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.
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CoreLogic reported a further fall in housing values through the first month of spring, with our national Home Value Index recording a -1.4% decline. Although values are still falling quite rapidly, the rate of decline eased from a -1.6% fall in August.
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Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing
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Recession risk – Q3 breather likely temporary
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Vicious cycle: falling land sales hitting local government revenues
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In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index has contracted for a seventh straight month.
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Buyers fight back: Mortgage strike points to property sector’s weak underpinnings
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Base effects flatter August’s growth rates, as a fresh COVID-19 wave threatens outlook
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50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22
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We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.
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NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data to 10 September shows unexpected strength over the last two weeks.
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Economic outlook weakens as central banks continue to tighten.
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Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.
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Our data mapping points to a slight drop in retail sales in August.
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No signs of slow down yet as strong conditions roll on.
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Australian agricultural commodity prices have continued to unwind, posting a second month of lower prices as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index. This comes against a backdrop of continued excellent seasonal conditions, but elevated input costs and rapidly rising interest rates to control global inflation.
Report
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
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The housing downturn accelerated through August, as falling values became more widespread, taking CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index into a fourth consecutive month of decline. The national index was down -1.6% over the month, which was the largest month-on-month decline since 1983.
Report
A solid result ahead of a slower H2 2022
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
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A solid outcome ahead of a slower H2 2022.
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NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the weakening trend of the past few months continues, albeit from a very high base.
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Labour market still very tight despite GDP fall
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NAB's Online Retail Sales Index continued to contract in July.
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This report builds on our existing fortnightly Data Insights series and includes more detail on NAB business customer inflow data across various agricultural industries and states.
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How common is switching schools in the private system and why does it occur?
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The “Great Resignation”, Working from Home & Returning to the Office
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NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the moderation in spending growth continues post-EOFY peak, albeit from elevated levels.
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Reopening rebound limited by weakness in domestic demand and credit appetite
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Who is struggling, what are the key drivers and what types of debt are being used?
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We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.
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Weaker growth prospects, persistent inflation & geopolitical risk
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Australian dwelling values fell by -1.3% last month, marking the third month in a row where our national Home Value Index has fallen.
Report
Our data mapping points to moderate growth in retail sales in July.
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Rebound set to fade as consumption slows in H2 2022
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Confidence & conditions rally as economy strains capacity limits
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While consumption has outperformed in the pandemic era – notwithstanding significant differences between sectors – gravity now appears to be catching up.
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NAB's Commercial Property Index eased to +1 pt in Q2 (+11 in Q1) amid reports market is starting to respond to higher inflation and interest rates.
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Walking away? China’s ambitious growth target has moved too far out of reach.
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GDP falls again in Q2
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Confidence falls despite strong post-Omicron conditions.
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In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in June.
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An exclusive webinar on NAB Commercial Property - Impacts of Global Supply Challenges on the Industrial Property Market. Watch now.
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NAB now expects rates to reach 2.85% by year-end.
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While the new financial year has seen lower spending, the trend shows a very moderate decline.
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Strong conditions as inflationary pressure builds.
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The impact on business, and how SMEs believe supply chain issues can best be solved.
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How big an issue are they for SMEs, what are their expectations & how does business think they can be resolved?
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Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.
Insight
COVID-19 measures hit China’s economy harder than expected in Q2, and present downside risk to the outlook.
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Globally, major central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to the highest inflation in decades, thereby straining household finances and leading to falls in asset prices. For Australia, we have not changed our view on the underlying trajectory for the economy but see greater risk for household consumption on the back of higher rates and inflation.
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Tightening monetary policy puts the brakes on growth prospects
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Interest rates & inflation to weigh on the consumer.
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Overall retail spending looks to be coming under increasing pressure.
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NAB now expects rates to reach 2.35% by year-end.
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Business confidence falls further while conditions hold up.
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Our national Home Value Index recorded a second consecutive month of decline in June, down -0.6%, to be -0.2% lower over the June quarter.
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Consumers spending big on EOFY sales.
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How will the US respond to China’s failure to meet its trade commitments?
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An exclusive webinar on Commercial Property. Watch now.
National housing market sentiment fell sharply in Q2 as house prices weakened, but still positive supported by strong rents.
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Our latest weekly consumer tracking data shows something of a mixed picture.
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In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in May.
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Consumer stress up again due to cost of living, but job pressures hit a 4-year low. Purchasing expectations fall sharply, particularly for travel.
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Australians are making big changes due to the rising cost of living
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Do Australians plan ahead for private school fees, how are they funded & usage of private tutors?
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Alan Oster, NAB’s Group Chief Economist, shares his view on the outlook of the Australian economy.
The Fed tightens the screws.
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Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.
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Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 11 June shows ongoing signs of deterioration, albeit from elevated levels earlier this year.
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Global growth prospects continue to weaken.
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COVID-19 uncertainty continues to cloud China’s economic outlook.
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Our data show a drop in retail sales in May, albeit from generally strong levels seen earlier in the year.
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Higher inflation, higher rates & slower growth ahead.
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Confidence eases but conditions and outlook remain strong.
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RBA rushing to neutral, rates to reach 2.10% by year-end.
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Housing markets lost more steam in May as a combination of higher interest rates, rising inventory levels and lower sentiment dampened conditions. CoreLogic’s Home Value Index showed Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values continued to record the most significant month-on-month falls, while Canberra recorded its first monthly decline since July 2019.
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Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 28 May was broadly solid, although there are signs of softening from highs earlier this year.
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A solid result despite virus disruptions early in the year.
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Low cost outlier: China’s consumer price growth has remained weaker than most international peers.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
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Imports to weigh on growth despite strong consumption.
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In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a third consecutive month in April.
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Revising down US growth forecasts.
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An exclusive webinar on Perth’s property market and rent roll insights for real estate agents. Watch now.
Webinar
Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 14 May was broadly quite encouraging.
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NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose to +11 pts in Q1, building on the gains seen in the last quarter when the index moved back into positive territory for the first time in 2 years.
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Consumer stress rises as concerns over cost of living hit a 2-year high. But, ahead of the federal election & with very low unemployment, stress relating to government policy & job security eased.
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Australia’s wellbeing falls, but the gap by income now at its narrowest in almost 3 years. Wellbeing diverging across the country, highest in TAS & lowest in WA. Home ownership a significant differentiator. Household financial stress up slightly but falling for low income earners & rising sharply for those on higher incomes. The share of Australians experiencing some form of financial hardship now at a survey low.
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COVID lockdowns point to weaker growth and greater uncertainty in the near term.
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We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.
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Growth set to slow to below its long-run average
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Rates to rise further as strong growth continues
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We see retail sales continuing to grow in April, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previous months.
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Housing values are still rising at the national level, however, with a rise of just 0.6% over the month, April’s growth rate was the lowest reading since October 2020.
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Conditions rise further on Recreation & Personal Services recovery.
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Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 30 April suggests that consumption growth may have peaked, albeit at a high level.
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In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a second consecutive month in March.
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Even with GDP falling in Q1, the Fed is set to move faster.
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The COVID-19 pandemic could accelerate China’s long term demographic pressures
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Strong CPI to bring forward first rate increase to May.
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Commodity prices remain generally very elevated, although some (particularly dairy, cattle and sheep) have eased somewhat recently, albeit from record or near-record levels.
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Follow the money: The strength of China’s outward foreign investment during pandemic raises questions.
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Housing market sentiment buoyed by growing rents as prices slow, but confidence slips as expectations for price growth scaled back.
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Omicron weighed on SME conditions and confidence in Q1.
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COVID outbreaks dampened growth in March, and cloud near-term outlook.
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Working from home, hybrid working, our Wellbeing Index and the Economy.
Webinar
The global economic outlook remains clouded by numerous factors, however, we expect that the global economy will grow by 3.7% in 2022 and then slow to a trend- like 3.5% in 2023. For Australia, GDP is expected to grow by a strong 3.4% this year – supported by healthy growth in consumption and ongoing gains in business investment.
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COVID and conflict continue to cloud near term outlook.
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March has seen smoother retail prospects when compared to the very choppy conditions across January and February, with our forecast pointing to moderate growth in the month.
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Rate rises set for June as strong growth continues.
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Conditions surge higher as costs, prices hit records.
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Nationally, housing values were up 0.7% in March, a subtle increase on the 0.6% lift recorded in February.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
The changing workplace - attitudes to jobs, working from home & barriers to returning to the office.
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RBA to hike rates in June, July, August and November, followed by a more gradual path through 2023 and 2024.
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An exclusive webinar on Melbourne’s property market and rent roll insights for real estate agents. Watch now.
Webinar
An exclusive webinar on Brisbane’s property market and rent roll insights for real estate agents. Watch now.
Webinar
Data softer than previous week, although up from early March.
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Confidence and conditions pull back but remain resilient.
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In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in February.
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The NAB Rural Commodities Index ticked up another 0.9% on a monthly basis in February - its eleventh consecutive gain to another record high.
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Fed lifts rates – more to come.
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COVID disruptions have continued but State economies have been resilient and labour markets are strong.
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An exclusive webinar on Sydney’s property market and rent roll insights for real estate agents. Watch now.
Webinar
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
Overall, 2022 continues to outperform 2021 and even pre-pandemic 2019.
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COVID and energy prices present sizeable risk to China’s ambitious growth target.
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CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index posted a 0.6% gain last month, taking Australia’s housing market into the 17th consecutive month of increasing values.
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The strong seasonal conditions since 2020 have replenished storages and allowed a strong recovery in cotton production.
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Globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a significant spike in energy prices – reflecting the importance of Russia in the production and export of oil, natural gas and coal, in combination with limited additional supply elsewhere. Locally, the war in Europe poses risks on both the activity and nominal sides of the economy, uncertainty is now highly elevated – but the central-case for Australia’s economy largely remains strong.
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Russian invasion triggers uncertainty & volatility in global markets.
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2022 started slowly on account of the Omicron wave but is now really picking up, notably in areas like hospitality and clothing and footwear.
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Unemployment to fall below 4%; inflation risks build.
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Activity, employment strengthen as prices push higher.
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NAB now sees the first rate hike coming in August; Gradual normalisation to follow through in 2023 and 2024.
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Overall, February saw strong gains for hospitality, with surging spending on bars, restaurants, pubs and accommodation, despite ongoing COVID circulation.
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Our Q4 survey saw commercial property market sentiment move into positive territory for the first time in 2 years, with the NAB Commercial Property Index at +3 pts.
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Wellbeing rose in Q4 to levels last seen before the pandemic & household financial stress remains well below the survey average.
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A strong rebound in activity as lockdowns end.
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China’s outsized property sector presents a major drag for growth in 2022.
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Key intergenerational differences emerge in what is valued most in a private education. Children have a growing voice, with over 1 in 2 very involved in the final school selection.
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NAB's Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in January.
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Rebound sets the stage for a strong 2022.
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Dean Pearson, NAB's Head of Behavioural and Industry Economics shares his views on the economy, including the impacts of labour shortages on Australian businesses across a broad range of industries and insights from NAB’s latest business survey.
Webinar
Solid start to Q1 activity data; Fed to start lifting rates in March.
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The NAB Consumer Stress Index fell for the second straight quarter in Q4 2021.
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Despite everything the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown at the small business community the spirit of entrepreneurship is alive and well in Australia.
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SME businesses shared in post-Delta rebound
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Our latest weekly data to 12 February shows a strong recovery in spending since January.
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Globally the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has spread rapidly; the sheer number of cases is disrupting economic activity as infected workers are forced to isolate. In Australia, we have revised up the expected rebound in Q4 GDP, but pulled down Q1 2022 as the spread of omicron weighs on the economy through both consumer caution as well as disruption to business.
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Latest COVID-19 wave has led to a soft start to 2022
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CoreLogic’s national measure of housing values rose by 1.1% in January, up 10 basis points from the December result.
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Over 1 in 5 Australians have changed jobs in the past year. Almost 1 in 4 are considering it, with many planning to move to a new role in a new industry or take a career break.
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Consumers started 2022 in an understated fashion, following some big swings in late 2021.
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Strong rebound slowed by Omicron as inflation builds.
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Conditions deteriorate as Omicron peaks.
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As agriculture’s record run continues, what’s ahead for 2022.
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Housing market sentiment and confidence continues to moderate as pace of monthly house price growth slows.
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While the past two weeks’ data is a little less encouraging than our previous release, there does not appear to be a major deterioration.
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Pre-Omicron economy was confident but facing constraints.
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Dynamic clearing – shifting the message rather than broad policy towards COVID-19.
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In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in December.
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RBA to hike in November, QE to end in February as expected.
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While spending has softened, it is nowhere near as bad as some have reported and we had feared.
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Fed policy tightening brought forward.
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China enters 2022 with relatively weak momentum and considerable uncertainty.
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Omicron dampens confidence, price pressures continue.
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As we enter the Year of the Tiger, NAB’s Gerard Burg reminds us why Asia will continue to be the region of opportunities post-COVID.
Article
The return of wealthy expats and pent-up demand has fuelled record-breaking prestige sales, making for a year unlike any other.
Article
Labour shortages through the eyes of Australian Business: How prevalent is it, expectations & how might it be resolved?
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For Australia the Q3 national accounts showed a smaller hit to activity than we had expected but we continue to see a very strong snap back in activity in Q4. Globally, advanced economy growth was robust in Q3, and a similar outcome is expected in Q4 albeit with a shift in the source of growth away from Europe towards the US and Japan.
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Our latest data for the fortnight to 11 November shows retail pulling back somewhat, following what looks to be a Black Friday - Cyber Monday surge two weeks ago.
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Global recovery continues but inflation is high and Omicron a concern.
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Australia's wellbeing levels fall sharply as lockdowns bite in several states. But financial stress has eased & fewer Australians are experiencing financial hardship.
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November data show little underlying improvement from October’s weakness.
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Activity snaps back in Q4, pre-Delta GDP within reach
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Consumers continue to power ahead across the country, with post-lockdown spending gains consolidated in our November data.
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Conditions stabilise as reopening progresses
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Q4 GDP looking strong; Fed turning more hawkish
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Housing values continued to rise last month, but conditions are diversifying as stock levels rise and affordability pressures mount.
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Spreading the wealth: Common Prosperity may start to address inequality in China.
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The NAB Consumer Stress Index fell to 55.5 pts in Q3 2021, as concerns eased, particularly those around funding retirement and health.
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Our latest data shows consumers continuing to power ahead across Australia.
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GDP Q3 2021 – A short and sharp fall, now firmly in the rear view mirror.
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Large fall sets up “W-shaped” recovery.
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in October, following on from lockdown enhanced strong growth in recent months.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Fed Monetary Policy Update.
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One in 10 Australians has moved during the pandemic, with many leaving capital cities for greener pastures. Here, the behavioural economist Dean Pearson explains what this means for house prices in 2022.
Article
Consumer spending continues to trend higher in NSW, Victoria and the ACT well after lockdowns ease.
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La Nina is now officially underway, with the Bureau of Meteorology declaring the event on 23 November. Current modelling suggests the event will persist until late summer or early autumn 2022.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Partials point to a weak start to Q4, with production and retail soft and investment contracting.
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We have trimmed our global economic forecasts this month to 5.7% for 2021, however should this occur, it would still be the strongest rate of growth since 1973. For Australia, our internal data and NAB Monthly Business Survey indicate the economy is again rebounding strongly as NSW and Vic reopen following the extended lockdowns through mid-2021.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Supply side continues to constrain activity, driving inflation higher.
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Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, but with reopening here, consumers are bouncing back and spending has returned.
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Rates lift-off brought forward as rebound begins.
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To the market: China’s power crunch is forcing much needed energy reform.
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Conditions and confidence rise out of lockdown.
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Australian housing values rose 1.5% last month, a similar result to August and September. However, the trend shows the market is continuing to slowly lose momentum since moving through a peak monthly rate of growth in March 2021, when values were up 2.8%.
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The Q3 NAB Commercial Property Survey shows sentiment has declined, reflecting a fall in business confidence and conditions following the extended lockdowns in VIC and NSW.
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Growth slows in Q3 but inflation still elevated.
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NAB brings forward rate rise timing to mid-2023; YCC to end in November given the RBA's lack of commitment; QE to end in February.
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1 in 5 Australians believe lockdowns have a very negative impact on mental health, and over 7 in 10 support vaccinated people having more freedoms.
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The NAB Online Retail Sales Index continues to exhibit considerable strength.
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SME conditions fall under lockdowns.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call and expects economic activity to rebound strongly as restrictions are eased.
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Restaurants, haircuts and shops are the top priorities for Victorians post lockdown. In addition 2 in 3 are planning to “splurge” once lockdown ends.
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The good news just keeps rolling on for Australian agriculture, with already very good seasonal conditions boosted by the increasing possibility of a La Nina event, combined with ongoing commodity price strength.
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Conditions and confidence hit by lockdowns in Q3.
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The first full week of Sydney reopening and NSW jumped (up around 15% in the week – reflecting hospitality and personal services (e.g. hairdressers) reopening, but other states showed weakness.
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Market data shows house prices slowing, sales easing, and building approvals falling, the survey is also pointing to a market that has passed its peak.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
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A series of crises stalled Q3 growth and present downside risk to the outlook.
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We have revised our global economic forecasts lower – to 5.9% for 2021. For Australia, a very sharp fall in activity in Q3 is locked in however we continue to expect a solid rebound in Q4 , and strong growth continuing into early 2022.
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Energy woes add to persistent supply bottlenecks in slowing global recovery.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Reopening in NSW, soon to be followed by the ACT and Victoria, should give retail spending a good kick along in October and November.
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Waiting for the rebound after Q3 lockdowns.
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Confidence rebounds on the back of roadmaps, vaccination.
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Australian housing values rose 17.6% higher over the first nine months of the year and 20.3% higher over the past 12 months. The annual growth rate is now tracking at the fastest pace since the year ending June 1989.
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Encouraging news on the data front this week.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
The Fed is set to taper – but rate hikes are still a way off
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Debt bomb – managing the fallout from Evergrande will be a key challenge for Chinese authorities.
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index continued to grow in August, driven by department store sales and three key sales states, NSW, VIC, and QLD.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his view on the different impacts COVID-19 has had on industries and provide a broader macroeconomic outlook on the Australian economy.
Webinar
COVID 19 continues to be the main driver of growth both in the recovery phase and as the Delta variant spreads. With vaccines looking promising 2021 looks like being a bounce back year.
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A rebound in Australia’s cotton industry has seen business cash inflows of NAB Agribusiness cotton grower customers surge since early 2021 on the back of booming production.
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COVID 19 remains the main risk to the global economic outlook, while in Australia the key risks to our forecasts remain the timing and pace of the easing in restrictions, and further out, the underlying pace of growth as the impact of policy measures fades.
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Strong economic growth in Q2 is set to falter in Q3.
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COVID restrictions hit retail in August, building on existing imbalances in China’s economy.
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A near term hit to GDP before the recovery continues.
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Our data mapping points to another retail sales fall in August.
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Confidence and conditions tick up.
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This week's consumption data results give us some cautious optimism for Q4.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Despite many parts of the country remaining in some level of lockdown, the housing boom continued to roll on, with national home values rising another 1.5% last month.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
GDP surprises, rising 0.7% q/q.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
A soft outcome ahead of a Q3 fall.
Insight
In our latest report, we look at what small business needs to succeed.
Covid-19 has accelerated digital transformation & consumer preferences. The lines between physical and digital are dissolving.
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Lockdown passion projects spur online sales.
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NAB Rural Commodities Index hits a record high sitting 12.6% above August 2020 levels.
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While Sydney and Melbourne remain a key risk to the outlook, NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call.
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Household financial stress up on rising concerns over monthly household expenses. There's also a growing economic divide between low & high-income earners, jobless & employed, and fewer Australians believe now is a good time to buy a home.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Q2 NAB Commercial Property Survey shows confidence edged higher, but recovery will remain slow.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
China’s Delta outbreak likely to slow growth in the near term
Insight
Due to lockdowns, we expect to see a large hit to activity in Australia in Q3. Our global growth forecast for 2021 is marginally weaker this month, 6.2% compared with 6.3% previously.
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Consumption is now down around 3%, compared to the start of 2021.
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Differing vaccination rates are driving a divide between economic groups.
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GDP to fall but recovery will resume as lockdowns end.
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NABs data mapping points to retail sales falling substantially in July.
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Although the pace of housing growth has slowed, values continue to rise at a rate that is well above average across most areas of the country.
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Confidence and conditions fall further with ongoing lockdowns.
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index accelerated in June, following the May rebound.
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Approaching the peak: China’s long-term coal consumption looks set to decline.
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Q2 GDP growth below expectations but still strong.
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Very strong SME business conditions in Q2.
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Consumption is down almost 7% compared to the start of 2021.
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Lower currency continues to buoy Australian agriculture.
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Wellbeing up & now at its highest level since 2019. Resilience is building, but wellbeing is falling for the unemployed & low income earners. NSW lockdown a key risk.
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Housing market sentiment lifts to a new high and dwelling prices now expected to grow around 19% in 2021 and 4% in 2022.
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Conditions at a record high in Q2.
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Consumer stress rising again, but vaccination intentions more positive.
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COVID-19 remains the most significant risk for our global outlook. While in Australia, the current virus outbreak in NSW and associated lockdowns/border closures highlights the uncertainty around economic forecasting at present.
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China’s economy grew largely as expected in Q2, but imbalance between production and consumption persists.
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Compared to the start of 2021, consumption is now down around 0.7%.
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Advanced economies open up again; can vaccines ensure it’s for the last time?
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Recent lockdowns look to have dented retail spending in areas hard-hit in 2020, notably hospitality and clothing and footwear.
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Lockdown disruptions but expect recovery to continue.
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Re-Affirming our rate view and an update on the outlook for QE.
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One, two, three: Can China counter its demographic drag by raising its birth rate?
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Wages growth and expectations.
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Confidence falls on virus fears.
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Housing market ended the financial year on a high note. Despite another month of strong gains, there are signs that some heat is coming out of the market
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew in May, after a contraction in April.
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Victorian spending has bounced back to above the national average.
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A new phase of growth emerges across the states following a fast rebound.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Fed – Still dovish but less than previously thought.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his view on the improved outlook of the Australian economy.
Webinar
Agricultural commodity prices continue to perform generally very well, rounding out a generally strong period for many agricultural producers.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
Buyers beware: China’s consumers have remained subdued during the COVID-19 recovery.
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Growth slowing as base effects wash away; consumers continue to lag industry.
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The weakness in consumption spending continued last week.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Bumper winter crop predicted to put Australian agriculture on top.
Article
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Advanced economies continue recovery, as Emerging markets face further COVID-19 struggle.
Insight
We look at the rapid rise of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) sector.
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Retail trends continue to point to the COVID-induced consumer boom having largely run its course.
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A healthy outlook for the economy beyond the rebound.
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Business conditions continue to boom.
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CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index up 2.2% in May - a stronger result compared with the 1.8% lift in April.
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The slowdown in consumption continues.
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YCC to end at Apr-24 and QE to be tapered to $75bn.
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GDP Recovers Pre-COVID Levels
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in April, after a revised contraction in March.
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Q2 growth still looking strong; April inflation surprise.
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Q1 2021 - GDP continues to recover.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Retail spending is down around 5% compared to the start of the year.
Insight
With life in Australia currently very close to pre-pandemic “normal”, the boom in household goods and department stores has largely subsided.
Insight
Smaller base effects meant smaller growth rates in April but retail sales are still lagging.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Business confidence and conditions hit new highs.
Insight
Housing values are still rising at a rapid pace, up 6.8% over the past three months to be 10.2% higher than the COVID low in September last year.
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Encouraging headline results for the week ending 1 May, further underline our view that the Australian economy is recovering well from the pandemic.
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NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in March, after a revised slight contraction in February.
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Insights into consumer stress, attitudes, spending patterns and behaviours.
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Buy, buy, bye: political tensions could impact Australia’s trade relationship with China.
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Commodity prices stay strong amid rising Australian Dollar.
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Working from home can significantly improve work life balance, however, can also bring on other health concerns, particularly for mental health and feelings of isolation.
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GDP growth off to a good start in early 2021 and set to accelerate.
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Confidence pulls back from record high, but conditions lift.
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The NAB Commercial Property Index lifted for the third straight quarter, but remained negative and well below average.
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Australia is one of the most urbanised countries in the world with central business districts (CBDs) at the heart of economic, political, recreational, cultural and innovation activity. We explore the extent to which consumers have changed visitation to CBDs, why that is, and what would encourage them to return.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Momentum builds.
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Retail a little better (but still soft) and hospitality is showing strong performance after a very tough 2020.
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NAB has upgraded its forecasts for dwelling prices, which are now expected to rise 14% in 2021 and 6% in 2022.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Quarterly data point to weak start to 2021, but signs of consumers returning is positive.
Insight
High frequency indicators continue to point to a recovery in the global economy in early 2021. In Australia, the economic recovery continues at a brisk pace with forward indicators pointing toward ongoing strength in activity and the labour market, even as some fiscal support is wound back.
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How has COVID-19 changed the perceptions of what is important to Australian Home buyers?
Insight
Uneven recovery set to continue into 2022, as EMs wait for vaccines.
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2021 is already showing signs that the retail sector is returning to something resembling “normal”, which is likely to see lower retail spending in areas like household goods, electronics and similar sectors.
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Healthy momentum leading into the JobKeeper wind-up.
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Business conditions reach a record high.
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The national home value index recorded a 2.8% rise, the fastest rate of appreciation since October 1988.
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Innovation on the rise as Australian businesses double-down.
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NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Don’t forget about me: lower skilled workers could be left behind by manufacturing’s evolution
Insight
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index slowed (40.7% y/y).
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
One year on from the onset of the first Australian coronavirus lockdowns.
Insight
Autumn rain lifts EYCI outlook in the short-term.
Insight
2021 should be a year of strong growth
Insight
Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his view on the improved outlook of the Australian economy.
Webinar
Rising commodity prices underpin positive outlook.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Don’t be fooled by surging annual growth rates – momentum is set to slow across 2021.
Insight
Rising restrictions to combat a resurgence in the spread of COVID-19 towards the end of 2020 slowed the global recovery but did not derail it. In Australia, the economy continues to recover at a rapid pace.
Insight
US fiscal stimulus to add further impetus to global economic recovery.
Insight
With many CBD office workers still working from home, this week we consider the impact of the pandemic on key CBD sectors.
Insight
GDP fully recovered by Q1, but spare capacity remains.
Insight
How will consumers respond as 2021 rolls on and the prospect of some kind of post-pandemic normality comes into view via vaccination?
Insight
COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.
Insight
Despite a very strong start to the recovery, the economy is likely to have spare capacity for some time.
Insight
Business conditions bounce, confidence rises further.
Insight
Momentum continued to build across Australian housing markets last month, as values rise at the fastest rate in seventeen years.
Insight
Insights into financial anxiety & the role our household finances play in our wellbeing.
Insight
We all value our time, but some of us feel we are under more time pressure than others.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
While last year was one of the most challenging for schools in Australia’s history, schools will adapt post-COVID.
Rebound continues as Victoria ends lockdown.
Insight
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in January, after a short sharp contraction in December.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Digital divorce: forces are pushing for a technology split from China.
Insight
The rebound continues.
Insight
Global pandemic boosts feeling of Australia as the lucky country.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Consumption growth continues to moderate in the latest NAB Data Insights release for the week-ended 20 February 2021.
Insight
2021 set to be a year of very strong growth.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
While NAB’s Commercial Property Index lifted for the second straight quarter, it was still weak and well below average.
Insight
New NAB research reveals over 4 in 10 Australians felt they needed help for their mental health
Insight
Businesses are having to adjust to a new kind of consumer, but it remains unclear which behaviours and sentiments will stick.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. Whereas in Australia, economic activity continues to rebound strongly.
Insight
SME confidence hits a record high as conditions rebound
Insight
Beyond near-term weakness outlook brightens on vaccine roll-out and fiscal support.
Insight
Consumption growth continues to moderate in the new year, but remains positive overall.
Insight
Housing values continued to rise through the first month of 2021
Insight
GDP growth and the labour market continue to surprise.
Insight
A range of key commodity prices rose in January.
Insight
January’s cashless retail result represents respectable growth, following significant volatility late last year.
Insight
Business confidence rises, while conditions pull back.
Insight
Australian agriculture set for solid year.
Insight
Despite ongoing economic challenges, the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points.
Insight
The recovery continues.
Insight
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December, after moderate growth in November.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Meet the new boss: a Biden Administration doesn’t mean a return to Obama-era China policy.
Insight
Recovery lost momentum at end of 2020; hope for a better 2021
Insight
Overall spending growth slowing, but still positive in year-on-year terms
Insight
Business conditions improve to multi-year highs.
Insight
Recovery from COVID-19 continues across Australia
Insight
QE to continue, RBA to grapple with ending YCC.
Insight
China’s economy enters 2021 with momentum, but expected to slow across the year.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Consumption spending growth resumed in the week ending 9 January, up 4.1% on the same week last year.
Article
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
What do alternative indicators suggest about China’s COVID-19 downturn and recovery?
Insight
China’s consumers finally remerging
Insight
Signs of slowing, but vaccine a positive
Insight
Globally GDP rebounded strongly across all the major advanced economies in Q3, however the spread of COVID-19 remains a key risk to the outlook. In Australia our outlook now resembles the best-case scenario we outlined at the start of the pandemic, although large uncertainties remain, even with a vaccine seemingly close to being rolled out.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Widespread rebound in Q3 GDP, but COVID continues to disrupt global economy.
Insight
We take a closer look at how selected retail and hospitality spending in the CBDs of Melbourne and Sydney have fared this year.
Podcast
Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.
Insight
Stronger near-term recovery in activity and a lower peak in unemployment.
Insight
Victorian retail sales are now tracking just behind New South Wales and Queensland on a year ended basis. Western Australia remains the strongest performer, but other states are catching up.
Insight
Australia's housing market continued to recover, with dwelling values up 0.8% over the month.
Insight
Further gains as the economy continues to open up
Insight
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in October, after four strong months of growth.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
A strong rebound as the recovery begins. GDP rose by a large 3.3% in Q3, following the sharp 7% fall in Q2.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Large rebound from COVID impacted Q2.
Insight
Financial anxiety falls to its lowest level in 2 years. But concerns are much higher for Australians who have lost their income due to COVID-19.
Insight
How high can Australian cattle prices go?
Insight
NAB’s latest Data Insights saw consumption spending growth slow to 2.2% % y/y in the week ending 21 November (4.9% last week).
Insight
The COVID-led economic downturn continued to weigh heavily on commercial property market sentiment in Q3.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Housing market sentiment bounced back in Q3, but still weak as VIC continues to weigh heavily.
Stronger activity and a smaller hit to unemployment in the near term.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Insight
Office demand hit by increased work from home.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Q3 bounce; but COVID-19 risks remain
Insight
Consumers gradually returning to the market, with China still reliant on industry.
Insight
2020-21 on track to deliver above average winter crop.
Insight
COVID-19 remains a major factor influencing the global economy. While in Australia the RBA has lowered rates to a record low of 0.1% and announced a QE program.
Podcast
After two steps forward, European lockdowns are a step back for the recovery.
Podcast
Overall spending increased 7.0% in Victoria (first positive result since the first week of August), second only to WA (8.3%).
Insight
Our November note updates our analysis for the September quarter, but also takes a closer look at how consumers who withdrew their superannuation funds early have used their retirement funds.
Regional housing markets continued to outperform the capital cities in October.
Insight
NAB Forecasts fundamentally unchanged – but large uncertainties remain.
Insight
October was another mixed month in commodity markets.
Insight
The retail sector has proven to be very resilient this year, although many consumers have changed their spending behaviour, leading to a boom for some retailers and bust for others.
Insight
Business confidence rose to its highest level since mid-2019, led by a large gain in Victoria.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
With COVID-19 restrictions easing across much of the country, consumer anxiety has continued to moderate and spending behaviours are shifting.
Insight
RBA cuts rates to 0.1% and announces $100bn worth of QE.
Insight
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index continued to grow, albeit slowing in September.
Insight
China looking inward as the external environment has deteriorated.
Australians are expecting lasting changes in their post COVID behaviours, but a growing number of us are yearning to return to our “old lives”.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
An improvement across the Survey – but some way to go.
Insight
SME Conditions & Confidence better in Q3, but still weak.
Insight
Consumer spending fell for the first time in 6 weeks.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Wellbeing diverging markedly across the country.
Insight
NAB launches a new measure of business wellbeing.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Sustained large budget deficits likely regardless of the victor, with Biden the frontrunner.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
China’s recovery remains industrial led, but consumers are finally emerging.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
We've seen a small (0.2%) increase in overall consumption spending, for the week ended October 10.
Insight
Trends in global commodity prices remain mixed.
Insight
COVID-19 put the brakes on already stalling foreign investment.
Insight
Listen to the full podcast now. If listening on a mobile device, click listen in browse.
Podcast
Consumer confidence increased, new listings rose, and six of the eight capital cities recorded a rise in home values over the month.
Insight
Overall, the survey saw a modest improvement in September.
Podcast
While still contracting, Vic (-7.4%) spending falls have moderated, with an improvement in non-lockdown areas.
Insight
Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index slowed a little from the record set in July.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Recovery continues, but risks remain.
Insight
The RBA continues to signal further monetary easing is likely.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
For the week ended September 12, NAB data showed a -2.5% year-on-year fall in overall consumption spending.
Insight
Will Chinese manufacturers lose in the post-COVID world?
Insight
In our new Consumer Cashlflow Analysis report, we explore the stresses in household balance sheets and hence macroeconomic impacts on consumers spending behaviours.
Insight
China’s industrial sector still driving the recovery, with consumers lagging.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Globally, after massive falls in GDP in Q2 across the advanced economies, the latest indicators are pointing to a substantial, but incomplete, Q3 rebound. In Australia, GDP fell by 7% in Q2 – the largest fall in the history of the quarterly national accounts.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Economic rebound in Q3, but signs that growth momentum is slowing.
Podcast
Australian home values moved through a fourth month of COVID-induced falls.
Article
VIC virus & reduced Government support means flat H2 2020. Larger falls through 2020 mean better 2021. But recovery still tough & long.
Insight
Retail sales have been resilient recently, given restrictions on consumer activity and the large hit to the Australian economy.
Podcast
At a high level, commodity prices broadly strengthened in August (with coal and gold the notable exceptions).
Conditions soften, while Confidence is still weak.
Podcast
For the week ended August 29, NAB data shows a -2.5% year-on-year fall in overall consumption spending - the first negative read since very early-May.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Record year on year growth, boosted by Victoria.
Insight
Q2 GDP fell by a massive 7% (-6.3% y/y), confirming the large hit to economic activity as a result of the shutdown to limit the COVID-19 pandemic.
Insight
Gary Hester, Specialised Business Executive and Daniel Norman, Associate Director NAB Markets provide an overview of the COVID-related customer support and outline its Trade and Working Capital Banking capabilities.
Webinar
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Growth is set to bounce back in Q3, but the recovery lost momentum through July/August.
Insight
GDP is expected to decline by 5.8% (-5.1% y/y) in Q2 – the largest quarterly fall on record.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Latest restrictions will hit Victoria’s economy hard, but COVID-19 has impacted all states.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
For the week ended August 15, NAB data shows a -1.5% year-on-year decline in overall consumption spending.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The global economy continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. However, there is still a long way back with progress. In Australia, we have downgraded our forecasts due to the containment measures in Victoria.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Global recovery continues but it is uneven and still a long way back to ‘normal’.
Insight
Our internal data point to a moderate decline in July, having stabilised at a surprisingly buoyant level after the rollercoaster earlier this year.
Podcast
Commodity markets have continued to display differing trends.
Insight
Conditions continue to recover, but confidence remains fragile.
Insight
Martin Ross, Head of Transactional Banking at NAB, discusses the enhanced functionality of e-Payables with VISA industry experts.
Webinar
Martin Ross, Head of Transactional Banking at NAB, discusses the enhanced functionality of e-Payables with VISA industry experts.
Webinar
Record low interest rates, government support and loan repayment holidays for distressed borrowers have helped to insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB data for the week ended August 1 suggests the trend decline in consumption spending seen in recent weeks has continued.
Insight
VIC virus shutdown makes the outlook significantly worse with no quick bounce back, with unemployment and poor confidence big issues.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data returned to more moderate growth in June.
Insight
Massive fall in Q2 GDP.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The SME sector sees a large COVID hit.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
A large deterioration in the budget position and a pessimistic economic outlook. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB’s latest Data Insights highlight a slowdown in consumption spending in recent weeks.
Insight
The impact of COVID-19 sees a large deterioration in conditions.
Insight
The COVID-19 led economic slowdown had a major impact on commercial market sentiment in Q2.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The global economy is forecast to contract by 3.5% in 2020, before increasing by 6.0% in 2021, and 3.9% in 2022.
Podcast
China’s old economy drives growth to unexpected high in Q2.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Global recovery continues but virus outbreaks a major risk.
Insight
A number of commodity markets saw stronger prices in June –particularly base metals, gold and oil.
Insight
Extent of the fall in Q2 GDP revised sharply down – as is 2020. But pain still large and long lasting. With new virus uncertainties.
Insight
Our data mapping points to a moderate fall in June, following massive swings in March, April and May suggesting there has been some stabilisation in retail sales.
Podcast
Both business conditions and confidence continued to rebound in June – though it is important to note they are still weak in level terms.
Insight
The impact of COVID-19 on the economy has caused sentiment in housing markets to collapse in Q2, with confidence also falling to record lows.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB’s latest Data Insights report shows quite strong consumption spending leading into the Victoria shut down.
Insight
Despite values being down in June, estimates of market activity showed a further improvement from the April low.
Insight
Financial Anxiety falls to below survey average levels in Q2 2020.
Insight
NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts NAB Chief Econonist Alan Oster, sharing his thoughts on the current state of the Australian economy and the road to recovery.
Webinar
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Wellbeing up as restrictions ease, but inequality remains. Young men the loneliest in Australia.
Insight
May rebound, but virus spread a risk.
Insight
NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts Charter Keck & Cramer Chairman Scott Keck and NAB Valuations Manager Alex Dimou to discuss the Melbourne residential property landscape and share their positive outlook for the market.
Webinar
NAB’s consumption spending index points to a levelling off in spending.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Customer Executive GEC Biljana Nikolova explores the impact of COVID-19 on Australia’s NFP sector with Head of Economics Research Dean Pearson and CEO of Batyr Nic Brown.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Consumer anxiety fell in the June quarter despite very weak levels of economic and employment activity.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
How Australians are changing their behaviours, their biggest fears, and what of the “new normal”.
Podcast
Extremely large falls in Q2 GDP for many advanced and emerging economies are likely, while in Australia we expect a large fall of around 8.5% in Q2, following the 0.3% decline in Q1.
Despite the loss of momentum in housing value growth, buyer numbers have shown a solid rise in May.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The trend improvement in consumption-based spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it may be levelling off and even slowing a little.
Insight
Long climb back to ‘normal’ levels of global activity has started.
Insight
Trends across commodity markets were mixed in May.
Insight
The Australian retail sector is facing extreme volatility amid a cycle of panic-buying, shutdown and now staged reopening.
Podcast
A small fall in GDP in Q1 expected to be followed by a very large fall in Q2 – followed by an extended period of recovery.
Podcast
Business conditions saw a broad-based improvement in the month but remain deeply negative – at a level last seen coming out of the GFC.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
GDP declines on early COVID-19 impacts.
Insight
Julie Patterson, Customer Executive, Specialised Solutions explores Merchant Risk with VISA experts & Allan Goldring, NAB Head of Merchant Solutions
Webinar
In this webinar, NAB leaders share economic insights for the ACT & Southern Region.
Webinar
Part 1 and 2: The Coronavirus and other key business concerns now and in the future.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The calm before the storm.
The overall trend in consumption spending continues to improve, but in 4-week moving average terms is down 7.8% over the same time last year and 5.8% since the start of 2020.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster unpacks the latest consumption data and the results are encouraging.
Podcast
April crash, tentative recovery in May.
Biljana Nikolova, Customer Executive GEC explores the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australia’s Education sector with Dean Pearson, Head of Economics Research and discusses with Jack Stevens (CEO, Edstart) how NAB and Edstart are supporting schools and parents during this challenging time.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
We have revised down our forecasts for global GDP and now expect -3.8% in 2020, while we expect Australian GDP to fall by 8.5%.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Large falls in consumption-based spending although the pace of decline looks to have stabilised. However business payment inflows have weakened further.
Insight
A massive contraction in global activity has occurred due to COVID-19.
Our forecasts are broadly unchanged – we still expect a fall of 8.5% in GDP in H1 2020 before a rebound in growth in Q4.
Our data mapping suggests that the ABS retail trade measure will fall 5.3% in April.
Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and LNG markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.
Market activity dropped sharply from the second half of March and through April.
Business confidence remains very weak despite a rebound in the month.
Insight
Uncovering the business impact of the bushfires through the eyes of over 500 Australian SMEs.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Residential Property Index rises to survey high in Q1, but confidence shaken by Coronavirus impact on economy.
The NAB Commercial Property Index fell 8 points to a below average 0 in the March quarter.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Q1 GDP falls as US goes into recession
Impacts of Coronavirus on consumption based spending and business payment inflows.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Co-hosted by Biljana Nikolova - Customer Executive, Government, Education and Community and Shamal Dass - Head of Philanthropic Services, JBWere, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy; and Daniel Farrell - Associate Director, Rates, Global Markets shares his view on interest rate risk management.
Webinar
No state or territory will be spared from COVID-19 economic fall-out.
Financial anxiety rises again in Q1 2020 and 4 in 10 Australians experience some form of financial stress or hardship.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB cashless retail sales data for March shows wild swings across industries in response to the Coronavirus crisis.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about China's latest GDP, and the medium to long term impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Hosted by Greg Morris - Customer Executive, NAB Private, and Kate Galvin - Customer Executive, NAB Health, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy.
Webinar
The global economy is in a deep recession due to the rapid and widespread escalation in Covid-19 containment measures since mid-March. While the domestic economy is now expected to see a contraction of an unprecedented speed and magnitude.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest labour force figures, inflation, and the impact of Coronavirus on net migration. Listen now.
Podcast
Global economy in its worst post-WW2 recession, recovery timing uncertain.
Unprecedented sharp recession coming as a result of COVID-19. Sharp deterioration in employment and prolonged high unemployment.
Insight
Business confidence saw its largest decline on record and is now at its weakest level in the history of the NAB Monthly Business Survey.
Article
March was the lowest monthly gain in national housing values and likely sets the tone for housing conditions over the coming months.
SME confidence declines ahead of the COVID-19 disruption.
Webinar
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the JobKeeper package passed yesterday, unemployment forcasts and how industries are faring. Listen now.
Podcast
Australian wellbeing levels have fallen to survey low levels as anxiety climbs in response to rapid daily life changes due to Coronavirus.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about our future GDP and the impact on different industries Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the JobKeeper package and unemployment forecasts. Listen now.
Podcast
Confidence deteriorates on the early impact of Covid-19.
Insight
Consumer anxiety and spending behaviours are changing rapidly in response to coronavirus fears and self-isolation.
Insight
Unemployment to rise sharply in the near term with the economy crunched by containment.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the short and longer term impacts of Coronavirus on the economy. Listen now.
Podcast
How Australians are changing their behaviours and their biggest fears in response to the Coronavirus.
Insight
The US economy is undergoing a severe contraction.
Our forecast points to a substantial rise in the ABS retail sales measure in February (+0.6% m/m), but there is very little to celebrate.
We've significantly lowered our global growth forecasts, and in Australia growth slowed confirming a below-trend pace of growth prior to any virus impact.
Housing values surged by 1.1% with 5 capital cities reaching new record-highs last month.
Fiscal stimulus to support near-term growth, with more likely to come in the May Federal Budget.
World growth to be hit hard in H1 2020 – at least – due to Coronavirus.
Soft Economy likely to be hard hit by COVID-19. Outlook heavily dependent on severity and how long disruption effects of the virus last.
Confidence heads lower and Conditions now neutral.
RBA to soon undertake yield curve control, reinforcing fiscal stimulus.
A moderate outcome pre COVID-19.
Fed to further cut rates at its March and April meetings.
RBA to cut in March and again in April.
Uncovering the business impact of the bushfires through the eyes of over 500 Australian SMEs.
A weak result ahead of the Coronavirus outbreak.
US economy travelling well but Coronavirus clouds the outlook.
Our forecast points to a moderate rise in the ABS retail sales measure in January (+0.2% m/m), following an underwhelming end to 2019.
Wellbeing declined in the final months of 2019, after rising throughout the first 3 quarters of last year.
Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.
We have revised down our forecasts for global growth in 2020 to 3.0%. While in Australia we now expect a small negative for Q1 2020 growth.
The NAB Commercial Property Index increased 5 points to an above average +8 in Q4.
SME conditions and confidence edge lower.
Coronavirus to deliver a shock to global growth.
We have adjusted down 2020 GDP by 0.5% due to bushfires & Coronavirus impacts, but boosted for 2021. RBA forecasts a big stretch.
Housing market update shows the rebound in Australian housing values has continued into 2020.
More of the same in early 2020.
Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.
NAB Residential Property Index rises to a near 6-year high and is now positive in all states.
RBA likely to stay on hold in February – with labour market conditions buying time. But cuts are still coming.
The final monthly business survey of 2019 provides further evidence that activity stabilised in Q4.
The cost of living remains the single biggest driver of consumer anxiety, despite low levels of economy-wide inflation. To understand why, we asked Australians to tell us which costs are adding most to their living expenses.
Growth likely slowed in Q4.
Our forecast points to a negative (-0.1% m/m) print for December, in line with our view that the strong November ABS print largely represented Christmas spending brought forward by expanded Black Friday sales.
NAB’s annual pulse check of life in Australia confirms it is, with Australians in strong agreement that our country remains a great place to live.
Business innovation falters in Australia as the economy slows.
US-China deal reduces downside risks.
Our forecast points to a solid ABS retail headline figure for November – the strongest result since February this year if it transpires.
Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.
Amid conflicting trade signals, signs growth is stabilising
Private demand still “running on empty”. Broadly unchanged forecasts but concerns to the downside. Fiscal policy help unlikely.
The housing market recovery has continued to gather some pace through with our national index up 1.7% last month.
Business conditions tracked sideways in the month, and appear to have stabilised at low levels, after declining significantly between mid-2018 and 2019.
Agribusiness conditions flat despite strength of lamb and mutton.
Little support from fiscal policy to see further cuts in February and June, with a move to QE in the second half of 2020 a real prospect.
Consumer growth slows further.
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that after two solid months of growth in August and September, online retail sales weakened in October.
Consumption growth remains weak.
The waiting game - what's next for US-China “Phase One” trade deal?
Our forecast points to a moderate improvement for retail in October, although this may be partly due to higher retail prices – as measured in our monthly business survey.
Hopes of a US-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement have lifted financial markets. While in Australia we've lowered our near-term forecast for growth.
Near term growth prospects still weak, but potential trade deal offers some upside.
Next RBA cut delayed to February 2020, with the risk of further cuts and QE by mid-2020 without fiscal stimulus.
Private demand still stalled. Broadly unchanged forecasts but slightly lower growth in the near term. Policy help delayed.
Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.
Anxiety on the rise despite wellbeing hitting near record high.
Latest report shows a 1.2% rise in national dwelling values, delivering the fourth straight month of rising values.
US growth has slowed, but remains solid.
The NAB Commercial Property Index fell 4 points to +3 in Q3 2019, in line with its long-term average (+3).
Student wellbeing on the agenda for schools.
NAB Residential Property Index moves back into positive territory for first time since mid-2018.
Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.
This month’s result points to a further improvement in retail sales, albeit from a low base.
Consumer anxiety rises as concerns over the economy grow.
With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.
Housing market made further progress towards a recovery in September, recording the third consecutive month of gains.
US opens new fronts in the trade war.
Unchanged forecasts with low rates expected to persist.
Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.
The Australian economy grew by 1.4% over the year to the June 2019, its weakest growth since 2009.
Economy tracking OK but trade & other headwinds will take their toll.
RBA to cut in October and again in December, taking the cash rate to 0.5% by year's end.
This result points to a modest improvement in retail sales, albeit from a poor result last month.
Global economic growth slowed further in Q2 2019. Major advanced economy (AE) GDP growth declined to its slowest pace since mid-2016.
Recovery in housing values accelerated in August.
Global growth slows further as trade disputes escalate…again.
Cash Rate to 0.5% by February; more stimulus by mid 2020 unless the Government steps in.
Below-trend growth and low inflation still expected as downside risks build. We have inserted another rate cut(s) in early 2020.
Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point – well below long-run averages.
Our third Agribusiness Banker Survey brings a somewhat more encouraging headline figure for agribusiness conditions, although conditions in NSW and to a lesser extent Queensland remain challenging. Spring rain is sorely needed to see an improvement.
Private sector stalls.
Private sector weakness continues.
More Fed cuts likely as trade headwinds strengthen.
We continue to see considerable disparities between retail sub-sectors. On a yearly basis, our data shows department stores, clothing and footwear going backwards, while household goods is barely in positive territory. Cafes, restaurants & takeaways are outperforming.
The latest escalation in the US-China trade war has reverberated through financial markets. The policy response will be important - we now expect two further 25bp cuts in the fed funds rate this year. China is also likely to use policy measures to offset any tariff impact, including allowing further depreciation of its currency.
The latest escalation in the US-China trade war – with the US imposing a 10% tariff on most remaining China imports – has reverberated through financial markets.
Below-trend growth and low inflation – another rate cut ahead.
We're seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month - business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don't point to an improvement in the near term.
Have dwelling values finally found a floor in July?
Overall market sentiment lifted 9 points to +7 in Q2. It rose in all states (bar SA/NT), and was highest in VIC & NSW.
US economic growth slowed in Q2 2019 – will this trend continue? One implication is that the Fed will cut rates.
Despite an up-tick in confidence, conditions deteriorate.
Conditions ease further, while confidence increases.
Growth eased across all states and territories last year and early 2019, but the last few months have seen some improvement.
Current market sentiment among property professionals still negative but lifted in Q2 post the Federal election. Future expectations also improved sharply, reflecting a stronger outlook for prices and rents.
Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.
Our sense of life worth improved and we ‘felt’ less worried about our finances in Q2.
Global growth remains under pressure even with US-China trade dispute pause.
Forecasts unchanged – including key drivers of growth. Rate cuts to help but mainly in 2020. Fiscal stimulus impact small.
Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.
Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates a return to sales growth in May 2019, after considerable weakness in April.
Lower mortgage rates and improved sentiment could already having a flow-on effect for housing market conditions.
Consumer anxiety fell for the second straight quarter in Q2 2019, led by a post-election fall in anxiety arising from government policy.
The Fed is close to cutting rates.
NAB fine-tunes timing of rate call: RBA to cut in July to 1%
The ABS retail trade measure will see a modest (0.2% m/m) return to positive territory in May, indicating little or no bounce back from April’s disappointing result.
Although dwelling values fell in May, the pace of decline continued to ease; a trend that has been evident since the beginning of 2019.
The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – May 2019.
RBA to cut to 0.75% in November.
Trade policy turbulence continues to unsettle the global economy.
Weakness in private demand to continue. Policy stimulus needed – fiscal, structural and monetary.
Confidence saw a post-election spike in May but conditions decline further with the private sector continuing to lose momentum.
Household weakness persists.
Trade risks realised.
Prospects of another soft quarter.
US-China trade dispute a headwind to growth.
Contrary to our forecast for the ABS print, our cashless retail sales index improved in April, gaining 1.2% compared to a 0.5% fall in March on a month on month basis.
RBA to cut in June with a risk it eventually cuts below 1%.
The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – May 2019.
Trade worries overshadow tentative signs of activity stabilising.
While our sense of life worth, life satisfaction and happiness have all improved, we're feeling more anxious.
With a weaker inflation outlook, rate cuts ahead.
Reflecting the sustained strength in iron ore prices, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 0.4% qoq.
Surprise jump in conditions last month was unwound this month – with business conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average.
Australian dwelling values fell half a percent last month as the pace of home value declines continued to ease.
Consumer anxiety moderated in Q1 2019 but remains above year earlier levels.
Overall market sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) fell 11 points to -2 in Q1 2019 - its first negative read in over 4 years.
Q1 GDP – headline growth overstates strength, but still a good result.
Conditions ease further, confidence turns negative
Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.
Conditions continue to ease and confidence turns negative
The strong ABS print in February exceeded our expectations and indeed those of the market. It’s fair to say that we are sceptical whether such strong growth will continue.
NAB’s view is that prices will decline further over the next year or so - led by further declines in Sydney and Melbourne. We also see the adjustment continuing in an orderly manner, with prices remaining well up on 5 years ago.
In USD terms, NAB's Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 1.9% qoq in Q2 2019.
While the pace of falls has slowed in March, the scope of the downturn has become more geographically widespread.
Conditions rise while confidence continues a below average run.
NAB launches new measure of agribusiness and regional performance in Australia
Still expecting a growth slowdown but no recession.
We forecast that ABS retail trade for February will grow for a second consecutive month, following a weak Christmas period and a subdued January ABS print.
The bigger picture – A global and Australian economic perspective.
Growth slowdown continues; risks still to the downside
Slowing growth with rate cuts ahead.
In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 3.1% qoq in Q1 2019.
National dwelling values have returned to levels last seen in September 2016, and values have fallen over fourteen of the last sixteen months.
Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.
Two cuts in 2019
Household income and construction drag.
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index recorded -0.5% month-on-month contraction in January, following on from a -1.9% contraction in December.
Household sector weakness to persist.
New NAB data reveals key factors for the wellbeing of small business owners.
The US economy appears to have slowed in the final quarter of 2018, and is expected to continue throughout much of 2019.
We forecast that ABS retail trade will return to growth – albeit modestly – in January 2019.
The bigger picture – A global and Australian economic perspective.
Global slowdown continues into early 2019
Confidence and conditions continue to ease
Growth still reasonable but to move below trend – with rates now unlikely to rise. Indeed a significant & growing risk of a cut.
In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% this quarter – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was up 0.5% in December but down 1.1% in January.
National dwelling values were down 1.0% over the month, which was the thirteenth monthly fall over the past fifteen months.
Business conditions saw a moderate rebound in January after falling sharply in December.
No increase for the foreseeable future - increased risk of cut.
Overall sentiment among property professionals increased marginally in the final quarter of 2018.
Business conditions continued to ease in Q4 and while they remain above average, forward looking indicators point to potential further weakness.
Consumer anxiety reaches its highest level in over 3 years as slow income growth, high debt levels and weaker growth in household wealth weighed on households and their spending.
New research shows what Australians fear most for our nation’s future.
Conditions end the year on a concerning low.
Australian housing market sentiment ends the year on a very weak note falling to new Survey lows, according to property professionals. Confidence levels (expectations) also drop to below average levels suggesting market momentum will probably fall further.
New research reveals how Australians are weighing up the housing market.
This month we continue our podcast series to accompany the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index. It’s a short, 10 minute podcast, designed to give you a quick summary of the major drivers of the index this month. To listen, just click the link below.
Market turbulence to weigh on growth in 2019
Economic growth is likely to equal its post-GFC high in 2018.
Turning 40: Charting the rise of China since reform and opening up
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index rose 0.6% in November on a month-on-month basis, repeating its 0.6% (revised) increase in October.
The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – December 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 2.0% on a month on month basis in November, mirroring a 2.0% gain in October.
National dwelling values slipped 0.7% lower over the month, led by larger falls in Sydney and Melbourne where the pace of decline has accelerated. Nationally, dwelling values are down 4.2% since peaking in October last year, reducing back to levels last seen in December 2016.
Slowing growth paired with greater uncertainty going forward.
First 25 basis point increase now expected in the second half of 2020.
Growth to slow – with rates now unlikely to change until the second half of 2020. See our special note on this.
Both business conditions and confidence continued their downward trend in November.
We ask respondents to give their views on business conditions.
What do students really think about their lives now & in the future?
Consumer worries still loom large
Healthy momentum continues
Total NAB customer spending grew 7.0% y/y in Q3 2018 - up from 5.6% in the previous quarter and 3.0% in the same quarter a year ago.
Initial indicators for Q4 suggest the economy continues to perform strongly towards the end of 2018.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in October on a month-on-month basis, rebounding from a much weaker 0.2% in September.
The bigger picture, a global and Australian economic perspective.
New research shows anxiety is on the rise
Global growth is above average but slowing.
On a rolling quarterly basis, dwelling values are now trending lower across both the combined capital city regions, where they were 1.6% lower, as well as across the combined regional areas of Australia where values were almost 1% lower.
A healthy growth outlook but some concerns about the consumer.
Confidence and conditions ease.
US economy continued to grow strongly in Q3.
Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.
Anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns and how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.
Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) fell 9 points to a 2-year low +8 in Q3, but is still well above long-term average levels (+3).
The business conditions index decreased 2pts to +13 in 2018 Q3, but remains well above its long-run average. Business confidence also fell, declining 4pts to +3 index points, a little below its historical average.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.2% in September on a month-on-month basis, its weakest result since April this year. Five out of six major categories grew in the month; while other retailing contracted.
The lure of cash remains, even as younger Australians embrace cashless payments.
In US dollar terms, the NAB non-rural commodity price index rose marginally in Q3 2018 – increasing by 0.4% qoq. The strong upturn in the first quarter of this year contributed to a much more significant increase in year-on-year terms – up by 8.2%.
The bigger picture – a global and Australian economic perspective.
The Australian housing market continued to weaken over the month, with national dwelling values falling 0.5% in September, marking twelve months of consistently falling values across CoreLogic’s national hedonic home value index.
Solid headline growth masks divergent trends.
A strong first half and continuing near term momentum but slowing into the medium term.
Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.
The NAB Residential Property Index fell sharply for the second straight quarter in Q3 2018, down 15 to a 7-year low -9 points, and its first negative read since mid-2012.
Our wellbeing is up, but Australia lags behind the UK and we're still time poor with some of us willing to pay up to $131 for an extra hour in our day.
Recent tariff announcements are a modest negative for growth in US and China although Chinese policy will look to offset the impact.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 1.1% in August on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.7% (revised) in July.
The bigger picture - a global and Australian economic perspective.
Growth at a multi-year high but set to slow as risks build.
A strong first half and easing downside risks.
The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.
Another decent outcome.
The last month of winter saw the housing market correction deepen, with dwelling values falling across five of Australia’s eight capital cities. CoreLogic’s national index was down three tenths of a percent over the month taking the cumulative decline since values peaked in September last year to 2.2%.
US economy still strong, but trade concerns won’t go away.
Reasonable growth.
Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.
Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.
Consumer anxiety up steeply in Q2. Overall spending tightens as concerns about the economy and our household financial positions grow. Spending on utilities a key expense, and growing.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.9% in July on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.5% in June.
Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.
Growth remains above trend, but risks a concern.
Last month we saw our national index move through the tenth straight month of falling home values.
An unchanged economic outlook, but downside risks building.
The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.
The US economy grew strongly in Q2 2018, driven by a rebound in consumption and further solid business investment growth.
Business conditions ease slightly.
Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated in Q2. The Index fell 4 points to +17 but remains well above its long-term average (+3).
Favourable business conditions persist.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.5% in June on a month-on-month basis, following gain of 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%).
The global economy remains in reasonable shape right now despite some pressures on Emerging Market economies.
CoreLogic’s national housing market index showed a remarkable reversal in housing market conditions over the past year.
Trade risks to the fore.
The NAB Residential Property Index fell sharply in the June quarter 2018, down 17 points to +6 to sit at its lowest level since mid-2016 and well below its long-term average (+14).
Forecasts broadly unchanged but new risks to watch.
The business conditions index ticked up by 1pt to +15 index points in June, after easing in the previous month. The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.
Risk to world growth from trade tensions escalating.
NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.
New research released today by NAB shows electricity and roads have the biggest impact on our daily lives - affecting almost 1 in 2 people (either positively or negatively).
Business innovation levels rebound; leadership pivotal to growth.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in May on a month-on-month basis, following a flat read in April (revised from -0.6%).
Real GDP figures showed a pick-up in growth to 1.0% in Q1 (from 0.5% in Q4) lifting growth to 3.1% over the year.
Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.
Cracks starting to show in the upward global growth momentum.
Economy off to a strong start early in 2018
The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.
GDP Growth rebounded in Q1, supported by the household and government sectors and export growth.
Home ownership is a key to wellbeing according to new research from NAB
Solid start to the year.
Total NAB customer spending grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 2018, up from 5.0% in the previous quarter and 2.0% compared to the same quarter a year ago.
First 25bp increase now expected mid-2019.
Australians rate restaurants, movies and travel as the most positive experiences their money can buy, according to new research from NAB.
Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index was weaker in April, down 0.6% on a month on month basis in March.
Business conditions at record levels.
Total NAB customer spending accelerated to 5.0% y/y in Q4 2017, from 3.0% y/y in the previous quarter with spending growth up across all metropolitan and regional areas.
Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns & how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.
Business conditions strong and businesses have their say on tax.
Australians remain positive about their lives today but fear the future.
Business conditions strong and businesses have their say on tax.
Based on responses from the March 2018 Quarterly Business Survey.
Overall sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) rose 4 points to +21 in Q1.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index grew 1.2% on a month on month basis in March – slower than January or February.
Australian dwelling values held firm in March, with the combined capitals continuing a softening trend, recording a 0.2% fall, while regional markets saw a 0.4% rise in values over the month.
After a somewhat disappointing 2017 we continue to expect growth to gain more momentum during 2018 – with GDP increasing by around 3% through the year or 2.8% in year average terms.
First shots fired in the US-China trade war.
Still see growth momentum improving.
Business conditions come off the boil, but still hot.
More Aussies are opening their wallets to charity, says NAB report.
The NAB Residential Property Index rose 3 points to +23 in the March quarter 2018 and remains well above its long-term average (+14).
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index continued to improve into February, a welcome trend after the weak sales experienced at the end of 2018.
Financial market volatility has eased since the US equity market correction in late January but a range of geo-political and market events could trigger another bout of uncertainty.
Sabre rattling ahead of a potential trade war?
Gradually improving profile intact, despite a weak 2017
The business conditions index moved 3pts higher to +21 index points. This is a record high since the monthly survey commenced in March 1997, although the same measure in NAB’s quarterly survey reached this level in 1994.
Nationally, dwelling values recorded their fifth consecutive monthly decline in February, taking the value of housing 0.8% lower since the market peaked in September last year.
New research challenges old adage – can money buy happiness?
Australia recorded subdued economic growth in Q4, with the detail painting a mixed picture.
The economy looks to have performed solidly in Q4, despite a large subtraction from net exports.
NAB economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp increase in late 2018.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows improvement in January following a weak December.
Stability in financial markets over 2017 and early 2018 came to abrupt end in recent weeks, with a surge in market volatility and big falls in equity markets and prices for many commodities.
The calm in financial markets for much of 2017 and into early 2018 recently came to an abrupt end with a surge in market volatility and big falls in share prices.
Strong improvement in SME business conditions in Q4 2017, while confidence retreated a touch.
Global upturn to continue despite market turbulence.
CoreLogic reported further slippage in dwelling values over the first month of 2018, with national dwelling values recording their second consecutive month on month decline. After dwelling values held firm in October and November, they slipped by a third of a percent in both December and January to be down 0.7% from their peak.
Cautious optimism, but much depends on wages and the consumer.
Elevated business conditions & confidence point to a robust business sector in Australia at present.
The quarterly NAB Business Survey gives a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.
NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index* was basically unchanged in Q4 2017 at near survey lows with job security causing Australians the least stress, consistent with a strongly improving labour market.
Sentiment towards Australian housing market positive in Q4, but confidence wanes. NAB’s view for 2018 largely unchanged, but degree of moderation ramped up.
Confidence lifted to narrow the divide with business conditions, indicating a strong business sector in Australia at present.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows a slowdown in December following a strong November.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows strong growth in the month of November (1.6% mom).
Nationally, dwelling values were unchanged in November 2017 according to the CoreLogic home value index.
Aussies’ wellbeing at its highest since 2013, but high anxiety still impacting one in four
Last month’s spike in business conditions was completely unwound in the November NAB Monthly Business Survey, although the index remains at very elevated levels. Business confidence has been less volatile, but appears to be showing a modest downward trend.
A good year for the world economy as growth rises above trend.
The year in review and the year ahead.
Last month’s surprise spike in business conditions was more than unwound in November, although that was partly expected.
Last month’s surprise spike in business conditions was more than unwound in November, although that was partly expected.
Business and government led growth
Spending growth slows but “experiences” continue to out-perform.
The economy is likely to have grown at a solid clip in Q3. While some pieces of the growth puzzle are falling into place, the stark divergence between business and consumer spending remains despite jobs growth. Non-mining and infrastructure investment will be encouraging for the RBA, but higher wages growth is required.
NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales reveals a continuation of very slow growth in recent months.
The read on business conditions was extremely strong in the October NAB Monthly Business Survey, with manufacturing posting a strong result despite the recent closure of auto manufacturing plants. The conditions index jumped to a record high, and while confidence is not quite as buoyant, it is holding above long-run average levels.
Advanced economies to drive lift to above trend global growth.
Watching the labour market and wages.
Business conditions hit an all new high in October.
CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index held steady in October, confirming a cooling trend in housing market conditions.
There were very few consistent themes across the commodity complex this quarter.
Insights into the donating behaviours of Australian consumers
SME business conditions and confidence both improved in Q3.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a continuation of the very upbeat conditions for firms into the September quarter.
Overall sentiment in commercial property markets moderated for the second straight quarter, with NAB’s Commercial Property Index down 5 points to +18 in Q3, but still well above long-term average levels (+2).
NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales, the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index, reveals a rebound in spending in the month of September.
Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.
Australian housing market sentiment lifted over the third quarter of 2017, supported mainly by a large increase in the number of property experts reporting positive rental growth in the quarter and continued house price growth in most states.
For Australia, outcomes in the September NAB Monthly Business Survey were generally upbeat. Business conditions remain rock steady at levels close to their multi-year highs, but business confidence rose only modestly after a big fall last month.
Global growth rising toward trend pace as advanced economies lift.
Overall we are expecting that growth rates will continue to moderate across the combined capital cities.
Balancing multiple objectives, as business remains strong and consumers cautious.
Business conditions are strong, but retail is still a significant concern.
Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – their anxieties around future spending and savings plans, what drives these concerns and how they are impacting actual spending behaviours and financial hardship.
Consumers spending their disposable dollars on experiences
NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales, the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index, reveals a sharp decline in spending in the month of August.
Australia’s next phase of growth must be defined by ideas, creativity and execution. Our future lies in our ability to foster a culture of innovation. But how do we measure innovation across all sizes and types of business?
In Australia, the August NAB Monthly Business Survey showed some mixed results, but is still encouraging overall.
Global growth lifts in mid-2017, heading back towards trend rate as pace of advanced economy output expansion picks up.
The latest housing market results showed dwelling values held firm nationally.
RBA to remove some emergency accommodation in 2018.
Business conditions are strong. Confidence takes a hit. Some signs of inflation pressure.
Waiting to see if goals on tax and trade can make up for failure on health reform
Q2 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 6 September at 11:30am AEST. Additional partials will be available tomorrow and may alter our forecast.
Student mental health on the agenda for schools.
Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index is a new product which provides timely proprietary data on a major part of retail spending in Australia.
The July NAB Monthly Business Survey showed a continuation of the strong run enjoyed by the business sector. Business conditions rose to their highest level since early 2008, while confidence also strengthened.
Global growth heading back toward trend after soft first quarter.
No imminent return to “neutral”
Conditions continue their strong run, bolstering business confidence.
An improving demand outlook and USD weakness are lending support to much of the commodity complex.
SME business conditions eased in Q2 while leading indicators remained mixed.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster says that commercial property sentiment continues to vary widely by sector.
The business sector continues to look upbeat, both with respect to current business activity – also evident in the NAB Monthly Business Survey – and importantly, the near-term outlook.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index is a new product which provides timely proprietary data on a major part of retail spending in Australia.
Revisions to real GDP growth forecasts this month largely reflect a stronger than expected rebound in coal exports following disruptions from Cyclone Debbie in Q1. Further out, we have not fundamentally changed the tone of our outlook.
Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.
Global upturn remains in place despite the risks.
Australian housing market sentiment (measured by NAB’s Residential Property Index) fell noticeably in the June quarter after climbing to a 3-year high in March.
Encouraging signs emerging, but long-term headwinds keep RBA on the sideline.
Business conditions hit another multi-year high, with most industries performing well. Stronger trading conditions (sales) and profitability drove the improvement, while employment conditions were steady.
Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.
Australians reported a further improvement in the quality of their lives in the March quarter.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey was a little softer in May, but still points to a healthy business sector. Business conditions are elevated and confidence is holding up above long-run average levels.
Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.
Global upturn remains in place although momentum stalled in early 2017
Financial anxiety eases but 4 in 10 consumers still experienced some form of financial hardship in the last 3 months. Financial anxiety continues to be a bigger issue for young people (particularly women) and low income earners.
Business versus households – how will the situation resolve itself?
Australian economy ekes out modest growth in Q1
Business conditions remain elevated, but confidence pulled-back from multi-year highs.
New data released by NAB today shows that spending on consumption-based goods and services by NAB customers slowed to 2.0% over the year to Q1 2017, from 3.1% over the year to Q4 2016.
OPEC deal was extended a further nine months despite low prices.
NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index - which measures concerns about future spending and savings arising from job security, health, retirement, cost of living and government polices - fell to a survey low 55.9 points in Q1 2017 (58.7 in Q4 2016).
Now in its 6th year, the index highlights trends in giving and helps inform charities’ fundraising strategies.
Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.
Economy regained its footing over 2016 GDP. It grew in each quarter in 2016… the first year this has occurred in since 2005.
Conditions were again strong in essential services including health, property, finance, transport and business services.
Sentiment in commercial property markets continues to vary widely across states.
Australians remain highly anxious. While having more money might solve some of our concerns, it would do little to solve some of the biggest detractors of wellbeing. But, it could help close the “wellbeing gap” between high and low income earners.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey generally paints an encouraging picture of both current business activity and the outlook.
In March, the NAB Monthly Business Survey results pointed to an overall healthy economy that is gaining momentum, at least in the near-term.
Modest growth as far as the eye can see.
Results from the March NAB Monthly Business Survey point to an overall healthy economy that is gaining momentum, at least in the near-term.
Australian housing market sentiment jumped to a 3-year high in the first quarter of 2017.
In February, the NAB Monthly Business Survey moderated from the surprising strength seen in January, but remained consistent with a relatively robust view of business activity and investment behaviour in the near-term.
Global reflation continues, political risks to navigate
Financial stability considerations to keep RBA at bay
Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.
Foreign multinationals suggest quite good expectations for capital investment in the next 12 months
Business survey suggests solid near-term activity, despite easing from multi-year high.
Growth will remain solid across the large south-eastern states, while there are signs of stabilisation in mining states as the end of the downswing in resource-related investment approaches.
Likely outcome is that the Euro-zone survives.
Recession fears overblown as GDP rebounds; income surges despite weak labour income.
New data released by NAB today indicates that spending on consumption-based goods and services by NAB customers grew 3.1% over the year to Q4 2016.
Australians and businesses overwhelmingly think our country is a great place to live and have a business. However, Australian consumers and businesses are anxious about what the future holds.
Commercial property market sentiment has continued to build on the positive gains seen in our last survey. NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose 5 points to +21 in Q4 - its highest level since the Survey began in early-2010.
Business surveys and measures tracking the volume of activity suggest that the global economic upturn lifted a notch toward the end of last year and that trend seems to have continued into early 2017.
Low-tier SMEs’ business conditions now comparable to that of their mid-tier and high-tier counterparts
Brighter signs suggest moderate global reflation continues
NAB Economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp cut in late 2017.
Stronger near-term momentum will keep RBA on hold, but 2018 still a worry.
Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.
The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.
The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.
Business confidence was down slightly, but has been remarkably steady for a long period given the context of global and political uncertainty.
Prices across the base metals complex have generally been stronger than expected in recent months, prompting some upward revisions to our price forecasts
Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.
By state, confidence has improved in VIC and QLD relative to the last survey, but this was offset by much weaker confidence in SA/NT and a small fall in NSW
Overall consumer anxiety eases a little more in Q4, but our spending behaviours are still yet to respond.
We are becoming increasingly concerned about the underlying momentum in the economy as evidence mounts that the non-mining economy is losing steam.
Global economic growth remains moderate with a sub-trend pace of GDP expansion set to continue.
No technical recession, but outlook for domestic demand uninspiring
Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth, they have been improving in the months leading up to November.
Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.
Contraction in Q3 GDP raises questions about non-mining recovery
The income measure of GDP is likely to be mixed, but stronger than the expenditure measure
Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.
Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth – and they have been improving in the months leading up to October.
The impact of the win in the U.S. Presidential election by Mr Trump is at this stage highly uncertain
Despite a slight moderation in NAB’s Business Survey conditions in the September quarter, NAB’s commercial property index rose 11 points to +16, with sentiment higher in all sectors.
US election highlights social and economic tensions
Business confidence has proven to be relatively resilient this year, but did moderate in October – falling 2 points to +4 index points (below the long-run average of +6).
Australian housing market sentiment improved in the third quarter of 2016, supported by more positive expectations for house price growth.
Economic stress provides the backdrop to an acrimonious campaign.
The NAB SME Survey is the leading business survey of small businesses in Australia, and complements the comprehensive Quarterly NAB Business Survey.
The quarterly iteration of the NAB Business Survey provides additional valuable insight into Australian business than the regular NAB Monthly Business Survey. This publication offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business.
The rate of charitable giving in Australia fell in the 12 months to August 2016, following a spike in the previous year, coinciding with the Nepalese Earthquake, and a still cautious consumer, according to new research released by NAB today.
The bigger picture – A Global and Australian economic perspective.
The outlook for the labour market is key. While we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain in its recent range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.
Global economic growth remains soft with a sub-trend pace of expansion set to continue and few signs of an upturn.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey still suggest solid levels of activity in the non-mining economy, but points to relatively patchy conditions at the industry level.
The more favourable USD has been a source of support for most commodity markets in the first half of 2016, but heightened uncertainty has seen additional volatility across financial markets, including commodity markets, more recently.
In this video, Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster discusses insights about what are businesses telling us about current conditions.
The bigger picture – A Global and Australian economic perspective
How one assesses Australia’s economic performance at present depends in large part on which industry / geography one looks at and whether the benchmark is in real or nominal terms.
Consumer anxiety eases as concerns over jobs, the cost of living and government policy continue to moderate.
Global growth still not lifting off.
No surprises in the latest data, weaker real estate sector leads to a softening in the growth profile
The results from this month’s survey remain broadly consistent with our prior view of the economy and the near-term outlook. It points to a patchy, but sustained, improvement in the non-mining economy, with the major services sectors and construction leading the way.
Expenditure components show a lift in domestic demand, supported by public spend.
Q2 GDP growth expected to ease to 0.3% in the quarter (down from 1.1%)
The Housing Market Report is your guide to the current home value trends in Australia. You’ll find information about what’s happened over the last 12 months, as well as NAB’s expectations of where prices are headed in the near future.
Through our research on wellbeing Australians have told us that they believe it is important for them to feel “connected” with their local community. But how connected do they really feel and what would they change within their communities to improve their sense of personal wellbeing?
Big cuts in corporate and individual taxation are key to Mr Trump’s election platform, aiming to boost the business sector and deliver increased spending power across the income spectrum.
Sentiment in the retail commercial property market has risen to its highest level in over six years. However, strong retail market confidence was not enough to offset the lower sentiment recorded across the office, industrial and CBD hotels sectors. Overall, the NAB Commercial Property Index fell 7 points to +5 in the second quarter of this year.
Global financial markets have digested the latest shock – the UK’s “Brexit” vote – quite well. In Australia, business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey
At its August meeting, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 1.5% (against our expectations) following a similarly-sized 25bp cut in May. Major banks have since passed on some, but not all, of the easing through to lending rates.
Brexit has had less impact on the global economy than many feared.
Business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey, with firms choosing to remain focussed on the positive trends within their own business.
Australia’s next phase of growth must be defined by ideas, creativity and execution. By people and businesses that are adaptive, agile, thought leaders and doers.
The NAB SME Survey revealed very strong results across a wide range of indicators in Q2, suggesting that the non-mining recovery is broadening to include smaller businesses.
Mr Trump’s economic platform is radical in many respects, calling for big tax cuts, alongside continued support for health and welfare spending.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides valuable insight into Australian business, and offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.
Solid growth across the large south-eastern states has become increasingly entrenched over the past year, while difficult conditions in the mining sector are having a more pervasive impact across Western Australia, the Northern Territory and parts of Queensland.
This NAB special report provides a unique insight into Australia’s start up culture. It explores the latent desire of many budding entrepreneurs (both younger and older) to start their own business.
Housing sentiment softens but still positive. Victoria and Queensland expected to provide the best capital returns in the next 1-2 years as prices continue falling in WA. Overall demand from foreign buyers continues to shrink as buyers retreat from Queensland and re-focus towards Victoria.
The Brexit decision has provided yet another shock to global financial markets.
In our latest global forecast update we revised down our United Kingdom (UK) year-average GDP growth forecasts in the wake of the UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) – so called Brexit.
Brexit, the latest in a series of shocks to global financial markets, leads up to shave our global growth forecasts by 10 to 20 bps in 2016 and 2017.
The overall narrative of the Survey has not changed this month, even in light of recent disruptions to financial market sentiment.
Uncertainty around the outlook for commodity prices has ramped up further in the wake of the recent Brexit decision.
Consumer anxiety has now fallen for each quarter over the past year, as Australians respond to sustained improvements in the labour market and recovery in the non-mining economy.
The personal ties remain strong between Australia and the UK. Around 1.2 million people living in Australia in 2015 were born in the UK, one in 20 of the population.
Equity markets have recovered much of the losses from earlier in the year but remain below last year’s peaks.
This month’s NAB Business Survey remains true to theme of ongoing recovery in the non-mining economy, building on the already solid growth seen in the recent National Accounts.
While global financial markets slumped and then recovered in the early months of the year, global growth has continued to remain disappointing and sub-trend.
The winding down of the mining investment boom has largely unfolded as many had predicted.
The Indian economy expanded by 7.9% in the final (March 2016) quarter of the 2015-16 financial year; India is now the fastest-growing major economy.
Expenditure components show exports driving growth, but rebalancing still evident.
A preview of the Q1 GDP data which will be released on Wednesday 1 June at 11:30 AEDT.
The release of Australia’s National Accounts next week is likely to reveal a solid rate of economic growth in Q1 2015.
Australia and Singapore have further strengthened their already very close economic relationship with the May 2016 announcement of reforms to their main bilateral economic relationship
Firms continue to see a favourable business environment, despite pairing back some of the strong gains seen last month.
NAB surveyed Australian business integration with East Asia in September 2014 and China in December 2015. Recent headline trade data indicate a reversal in the decades-long process of growing integration with our region as exports have declined.
Business conditions unchanged at +3, slightly below the long-run average. Business confidence eased to the neutral mark in the March quarter.
Australian consumers spent an estimated $19.3 billion online in the past year, primarily on homewares, groceries, media and fashion. According to National Australia Bank’s (NAB) latest Online Retail Sales Index in-depth report, online spending increased 12.4% over the last year.
Today’s CPI produced the lowest quarterly and annual rates of core inflation recorded since the RBA commenced inflation targeting - and rates that are starting to diverge below the lower end of the Bank’s target band.
A resilient economy, solid employment growth, strong household consumption and lower levels of consumer anxiety helped support the charity sector and the ongoing generosity of Australians.
The March quarter NAB Business Survey shows both a resilient non-mining recovery and an outlook that has continued to improve. Both business conditions and confidence remained at levels similar to that seen in the previous quarter.
The NAB Residential Property Index rose to +6 in Q1’16 (+1 in Q4’15), but is still sitting below its long-term survey average (+13).
The sharing economy is growing at a rapid rate, as new business models based on ‘access to’ rather than ‘ownership of’ physical and human assets like skills, time and space, continue to emerge.
There was an improved tone in global markets this month.
The forces shaping the economic outlook are broadly unchanged.
NAB Business Survey suggests non-mining recovery is broadening, and bolstering confidence despite global uncertainties.
Consumer anxiety has now fallen for its third quarter in a row as recovery in the non-mining economy supports the labour market.
Overall the picture is of an economy struggling to generate any momentum.
Latest ECB move highlights negative interest debate.
The Housing Market Report is your guide to the current home value trends in Australia. You’ll find information about what’s happened over the last 12 months, as well as NAB’s expectations of where prices are headed in the near future.
Global: We are not expecting any acceleration in global growth in 2016. Australia: The recovery across the non-mining economy remains on track.
We are not expecting any acceleration in global growth in 2016.
Improvement in business conditions adding to evidence of a buoyant non-mining recovery. Business confidence also resilient despite global uncertainty
The focus remains very much on the impact rising supply is having on some commodities.
The Australian economy remains resilient amidst an uncertain global backdrop.
The major themes driving the expenditure measure of GDP are unlikely to surprise.
In our second annual survey, we take another look at what makes this country such a special place to live.
Business conditions eased slightly to +3, slightly below the long-run average. Business confidence picked up to +3 in the December quarter.
Business confidence is sub-trend, but holding up reasonably well in the face of financial turmoil. Business conditions eased, but still consistent with non-mining recovery
Business outlook remains positive despite some pull back in the final quarter of 2015. Suggests global uncertainties continue to be the greatest risk.
The NAB Residential Property Index fell to +1 in Q4 (+10 in Q3) and now sits well below its long-term average (+13).
2016 got off to a bad start in global equity and commodity markets and in light of recent financial market turmoil in Australia, the NAB Monthly Business Survey provides a timely indication of how market movements have so far affected business sentiment.
We have lowered our 2016 global forecasts to 3.0% (from a revised down 2.9% in 2015)
Business confidence resilient to financial market turmoil (for now). Business conditions suggest non-mining recovery remains on track
The rotation in economic activity towards the non-mining states is continuing, while conditions in mining states have become more challenging as commodity prices have fallen further.
The NAB Quarterly Australian Behaviour Survey (formerly NAB Consumer Anxiety Report) shows consumer anxiety falling again (and to its lowest level since Q4 2014), amid more signs of improvement in the labour market and non-mining segments of the economy.
The NAB Group Economics team identify 10 global and domestic themes which will have bearing on the economic and financial market outlook for 2016.
In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.
Variable economic growth outcomes continued into Q3, with real GDP picking up strongly to 0.9% q/q, following a revised weak 0.3% outcome in Q2 and a strong 0.9% increase in Q1. Year-ended growth picked up moderately to 2.5% y/y, but remained below trend.
In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.
Consistently above average business conditions are an encouraging sign that the apparent non-mining sector recovery continues to gain traction, despite relatively muted levels of business confidence.
Commodity markets remain under pressure, reflecting concerns over emerging market demand (especially from China), at a time when the supply of many commodities is on the incline. Anticipated policy tightening by the US Fed is also having an impact.
Economic partials for Q3 have been mixed, but point to stronger real GDP growth of 0.8% in the quarter (up from 0.2% in Q2), as a series of one-offs that weighed on Q2 growth recede.
Labour market conditions remain tight with the unemployment rate at 3.4%; wage growth though remains restrained.
There is still solid underlying momentum in the economy despite the slowdown in U.S. GDP growth in the September quarter.
China’s service sector has been the main contributor to economic growth in recent times – particularly as trends in the industrial sector continue to weaken. In Q3, the services industry (led by finance) maintained fairly stable growth.
Global growth remains sub-trend and there is little sign of an imminent acceleration in the pace of expansion while in Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction.
In Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction. Recent outcomes from the business survey support this contention with business conditions holding up at a high level in October, and the unemployment rate holding steady.
Business conditions remain encouragingly robust, maintaining the solid gains obtained over the past year despite less than impressive levels of business confidence.
Australian residential property price growth has continued to surpass expectations in recent quarters, suggesting more limited scope for further gains.
Based on incoming information, we have modestly reviewed our GDP forecasts to 2.6% in 2015/16 and 3.0% in 2016/17 (annual average). Overall, NAB Economics remain of the view that the recovery in the non-mining sector is slowly becoming more well entrenched.
Business conditions among Australia’s ASX 300 firms rose to a new survey high of +20 points (up +12 from +8 points in the previous quarter). The gap between very big and small business is now at its widest margin since this survey began.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides a rich source of information about Australian business, their behaviours and the environment in which they operate. In addition to questions around sales, profitability, employment and the like, one focus of the Survey revolves around currency markets.
At 1.1% the latest seasonally adjusted NAB online retail sales index shows sales accelerated in September (possibly iphone 6S related), an improvement on the 0.6% recorded in August, and a rebound on the July contraction (-1.4).
In the quarter, SME business conditions stayed unchanged at +4 index points. Within the components of business conditions, trading conditions were particularly strong, which flowed into modestly better profitability conditions. However, employment conditions remained subdued.
Housing market sentiment softens as expectations for future price growth and rents are scaled back in most states. Queensland is the exception, replacing NSW as the most optimistic state for residential property and tipped to lead the country for price and rental growth over the next 1-2 years.
Charitable giving in Australia grew in the year to August, with people continuing to give more to charity despite persistent doubt about the economy. Overall giving to charity grew by 4.9 per cent in the 12 months to August 2015. However, this is down from growth of 7.8 per cent the previous year.
Leading indicators were generally more positive in Q3 2015. Forward orders jumped to their highest level since late 2009, while expectations for conditions in 3 and 12 months time both improved.
We are still forecasting little to no pick up in the pace of global growth and our domestic forecasts are unchanged this month, with real GDP expected to expand by 2.4% in 2015/16 and 3.1% in 2016/17.
Global growth remains sluggish and below trend however in Australia, the ongoing high level of business conditions and trend improvement in key leading indicators.
There was a partial recovery in business confidence in September as the Government’s leadership uncertainties were resolved, while financial market volatility and emerging market concerns have moderated from the heights of the previous month – although market concerns remain elevated.
Measured employment growth has been softer in last two months. But the data are noisy and other indicators do not show any labour market softening.
Earlier this week, Australia agreed to become part of a historic trade agreement, including countries that account for nearly 36% of global GDP and one quarter of global trade. This document provides a summary of the key measures, reported benefits and what we know so far about contentious issues.
The latest NAB online retail sales index figures show sales grew in August. In dollar terms, its estimated Australians spent $17.5 billion on online retail in the last year. Growth accelerated for electronic games and toys which leads growth, along with media and fashion.
Innovation is a key driver of business success and a differentiator of high growth-potential segments of the economy. This special report explores business attitudes towards innovation and opportunities.
The Fed is still likely to start lifting rates this year, but we now expect this to be in December rather than September. The US economy is expected to continue growing at an above trend rate. We now expect growth in both 2015 & 2016 to be 2.5%.
Economic activity is shifting back to the eastern seaboard as the economy transitions towards non-mining sources of growth with domestic demand will be strongest in New South Wales and Victoria.
The pace of growth in the big advanced economies has picked up, mainly reflecting a US recovery from weak first quarter growth. In contrast, Japan and the Euro-zone are not growing strongly and Canada is in recession.
There is increasing evidence that growth momentum is broadening across the the non-mining Australian economy – not limited to the dwelling sector – in response to the lower AUD and interest rates, with improvement particularly evident in services sectors.
Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009.
NAB’s non-rural commodity price index is expected to fall a further 8% in the September quarter (in US dollar terms) – following an anticipated 7% decline in June.
Variability in Australia’s growth outcomes by quarter indicates an economy undergoing significant structural change as it attempts to transition away from mining-investment led growth.
We estimate Australians spent $17.4 billion on online retail in the 12 months to July 2015 which level is equivalent to 7.1% of spending at traditional bricks & mortar retailers excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food.
Business confidence rose sharply for ASX 300 firms in the June quarter (back to levels seen elsewhere in the economy) although conditions were broadly unchanged.
Our forecasts for global growth to stay around the 3¼% yoy and locally, our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month – 2.4% in 2014/15, 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.
Global growth is running below trend limiting the pace of expansion in commodity demand. Output has been growing faster recently in some of the big advanced economies (notably the US and UK) and the Greek crisis has had little impact on activity across the rest of the Euro-zone.
The business confidence index remains positive, both trading conditions and profitability remain relatively elevated and the trend has held up around average levels. Our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month, with growth of 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.
In the June quarter, SME quarterly business conditions and confidence rose rising by 2 points to +4 and +5 index points respectively. SME business conditions were superior in property, finance, business services, wholesale, manufacturing and transport sectors.
The economy expanded by 2.2% in 2Q vs 2.5% in 1Q. High frequency indicators point to modest outcomes, particularly in the near term.
The June quarter NAB Business Survey confirms the trend of gradually improving near-term indicators, but with a somewhat patchy longer term outlook. Business confidence strengthened in Q2 to +4 index points (from 0 points), which is its highest level since Q3 2014…
NAB Residential Property Index (of prices and rents) fell slightly in Q2, dragged down by rents. VIC rebounds, but NSW to lead price and rental growth in next 1-2 years with WA lagging.
How Greece and other Euro periphery economies got into trouble and how Greece failed to get out of it.
US GDP slowed in the March quarter - extreme winter weather, plunging oil prices, strong $US appreciation and port disruptions all likely factors of influence.
Family relationships and safe communities critical to Aussies’ wellbeing. In an effort to better understand why Australians feel the way they do, NAB has been tracking Australia’s wellbeing (as measured by anxiety, life-satisfaction, happiness, and life-worth) since early-2013.
We have not changed our forecast for global growth this year (3.2%), but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.
Financial market volatility and the downside risks to global growth have been driven by the Chinese share market correction and the issues in Greece. Locally, lower interest rates and the AUD, strong housing prices and a post Budget kick in confidence appears to have driven better business outcomes.
Business confidence lifted again in the month of June – the highest level since September 2013. Confidence is now positive in all industries except mining and business conditions improved even more, in June – the highest level since last October.
There were no signs of global growth accelerating in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and commodity prices have been mixed, partly in response to USD movements.
Consumer anxiety rose despite falling concerns over government policy post the federal budget. More consumers are paying off debt and spending more on “essentials” however, fewer consumers cut back their spending on “non-essentials”.
NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, followed by a modest upturn in 2016 (largely driven by the US). And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.
There was no evidence of an acceleration in the pace of global growth in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and similarly mixed trends among the big emerging economies saw China slowing, India picking up and Brazil still very weak.
The recent Federal Budget and interest rate cut appears to have had a positive impact on business confidence – which moved up significantly in May - from +3 to +7 index points. This is the highest level of confidence since August 2014 and has helped to turn the trend more positive.
Giving to charity grew by 2% over the year to February 2015. Growth slowed in most age groups and in all regions. Despite these challenges, the average donation size for all charities increased by $2 over the past year to $336 per donor.
Business confidence was unchanged in April. Until confidence lifts significantly it is difficult to see a sustained economic recovery developing – to date rate cuts have not appeared to do much and it will be interesting to see what this week’s Federal Budget will do.
ASX 300 business confidence fell further in Q1 2015 to remain well below the general economy. Sentiment is particularly weak among very large construction firms. Business conditions while still positive also fell, with trading, profitability and employment all lower.
U.S. GDP growth slowed to a crawl in the March quarter. Details were weak, with the major support for growth coming from inventories. We expect the slowdown will be temporary and above trend growth to resume.
SMEs’ quarterly business conditions remained largely stable in the first quarter of 2015, with firms from all tiers showing broadly similar conditions from the previous quarter. SME trading and profitability conditions have deteriorated, offset by improved employment conditions overall.
Business confidence dropped back again in the first quarter of 2015, falling even further below the long run average level. This is consistent with a pull back in confidence in the February monthly survey, although this was completely unwound in March.
Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. We have fine tuned but not fundamentally changed our forecasts– 2014/15 2.3% and 3.0% in 2015/16. The non mining sector is still struggling to offset the impact on domestic demand.
Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. While the Euro-zone and Japan are experiencing upturns, recent US data has disappointed. We have delayed the Fed starting till September (or later) and reduced US GDP in 2015 to 2.7%.
There were some tentative signs of improvement in the NAB Monthly Business Survey for March – with the post RBA cut fall in confidence reversed in March. Surprisingly, the lift was particularly pronounced in mining, although confidence is still lowest for this industry.
The divergence between mining and non-mining state economies continues, although with mining investment now winding down it is the major non-mining economies that are starting to outperform. Budget positions improving but focus remains on reducing expenditure.
Consumer anxiety rises again in Q1’15 after a short-lived improvement in the previous quarter, as concern over government policy overtakes cost of living as the single biggest cause of consumer stress. With overall anxiety increasing, consumers are cutting back on many “non-essentials”.
Global growth remains around 3%. Weaker prices for oil and other commodities will benefit spending power in most big advanced economies as well as in China. The domestic economy, in early 2015, has not gained momentum with another rate cut expected in the coming months.
Global growth remains around 3% and, although the business surveys show a lift in sentiment in key advanced economies, there is still no clear evidence that the expected upturn in global growth to 3½% by the end of the year has commenced. Locally, we have not changed near term forecasts
The RBA’s 25bp cut to interest rates in February did not appear to have the desired effect on firms ‘animal spirits’, with confidence actually deteriorating in the month. The index is now at its lowest level since before the Federal election in 2013 and is well below the long run average.
After reaching the highest levels since 2009 in the September quarter, SMEs’ quarterly business conditions fell in the December quarter for the first time since Q4 2013. Firms from all tiers: low/micro, mid and high, showed consistent declines in their overall business conditions.
Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. This has been reflected in lower prices for a number of industrial commodities. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.
The latest survey shows that business confidence edged up a little, but it's still below long run averages. Confidence remains very weak in mining, consistent with lower commodity prices, but multi-year lows for the AUD likely contributed to a considerable improvement from last month.
Business confidence eased back in Q4, dropping below the long run average level. Sentiment and business conditions are generally consistent with a ‘patchwork’ economy. Outside of construction and services, conditions remain soft in all other industries.
NAB has released its first annual pulse check on the big issues facing Australia today. Important concerns include cost of living, access to healthcare, employment, the economy and terrorism/security concerns, while indigenous issues, infrastructure and transport and taxation are lowest.
The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell slightly to 63 points in Q4 2014 (63.8 in Q3). Wellbeing was rated lower for all questions, especially “not anxious yesterday” which fell to its lowest level since the survey started. Wellbeing rated highest in Queensland and lowest in Victoria.
Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions (expansion in US, UK, India and China, weakness in Euro-zone, Japan, Latin America). Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.
Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries. Unemployment to continue to deteriorate but peak lower (6.6%) and later (Q4 2015).
The survey again shows a patchwork economy with little-to-no momentum building. In December, conditions eased for the second successive month after October’s surprisingly strong result so they're now a touch below the long run average.
The Index fell for the second straight quarter, with lower levels of concern reported across all categories. According to NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster, the cost of living and government policy continue to be the single biggest causes of anxiety for Australians.
Global growth remained around 3% yoy in Q3, sightly below trend but it is expected to pick-up to 3½% in 2015 and 2016. Major differences in the strength of economic activity persist between regions with the US, India and China accounting for almost 2 ppts of forecast global growth.
Last months spike in business conditions was again short-lived, pulling back towards long run average levels in November. Despite the drop, the overall trend is still looking much better than 12-18 months prior, while levels of capacity utilisation have continued to improve.
Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies underpin faster growth of 3½% in 2015 and 2016.
The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) offers considerable potential for Australian agricultural and services firms as a result of their improved market access. Dairy, meat and horticulture stand to gain significantly while most resource exports will end up having duty free access.
Divergent economic conditions around the world are having a net negative impact on commodity prices. Chinese GDP growth slowed to its lowest pace since early 2009, while parts of the economy that are key to industrial commodities remain comparatively weak.
Global growth remains moderate and sub-trend with big variations between key economies. China and North America represent around one-third of global GDP but they currently account for around half of global growth.
Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between the major economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies should underpin.
Clearly the most surprising feature of the Survey was the sharp jump in business conditions in October (the largest monthly increase in the history of the survey). The improvement driven by sales and profits was relatively broad based –unlike the (short-lived) jump in July.
Australians are giving more to charity than ever before, with the average annual donation size for all charities increasing by 3.6 per cent ($11) to $315 per donor. Overall charitable giving growth also continues an upward trend, increasing by 6.4 per cent in the 12 months to August 2014.
SME business confidence eased slightly, continuing the trend decline from the peaks seen around last year’s Federal election. While this result is consistent with the ongoing sluggishness of demand in the domestic economy (excluding exports)…
Business confidence was unchanged in Q3, remaining close to the long run average levels. However, our monthly survey shows that the momentum has turned, with confidence easing steadily over the quarter.
Recreation & personal services and finance/ property/ business services reported the most positive business conditions. Interest rate sensitive sectors performing well.
Global growth was around 3% in the first half of 2014, below trend and with marked variations in performance between major economies. North America continues to perform strongly with solid growth in both the US and Canada.
Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with GDP expanding by a sub-trend 3% yoy and concern over weakness in Japan and the Euro-zone offsetting solid growth in the US and UK. Chinese forecasts unchanged.
Business confidence lost ground in September –lowest level since pre election - in the face of a persistently soft operating environment for many firms. Forward orders remained soft, prompting de-stocking and competitive pricing which appears to have weighed on profitability.
Recent global economic data and less favourable supply fundamentals have put downward pressure on many commodity prices. China, Europe and Japan were softer, while the U.S recovery appears to be gaining traction (US GDP grew at its fastest pace since 2011)…
“The index shows that Australia’s engagement with Asia is dominated by product imports and not surprisingly, our engagement is clearly strongest with China across all sizes of business. But, it is higher for SMEs than the ASX 300” said Alan Oster.
Global economic data sent divergent signals to commodity markets in August. China’s outlook gave less comfort in comparison to the better US data. There was more movement in financial markets during the month. Meanwhile further sanctions on Russia were put on hold.
Weakness in Japan, stagnation in the Euro-zone and a hard landing in Latin America have resulted in a slowdown in the pace of global growth through the first half of 2014. World GDP growth reached 3.4% yoy in late 2013, it slowed to 3.1% yoy in March qtr 2014 and 2.9% yoy in June qtr.
Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with stagnation in the Euro-zone sparking deflationary concern and ECB action while Japanese demand is still struggling to recover from April’s tax rise.
Business confidence remains resilient despite easing a little in August, supported by positive forward orders, subdued cost pressures and more stable consumer confidence. Positive business conditions are also helping despite falling back in the month.
The European Central Bank has cut its key policy lending rate to only 5 bps, it's progressing its planned schemes for asset purchases and targeted lending to banks and has hinted that it could increase its balance sheet by around €1 Trillion, taking it back to its early 2012 size.
The inaugural NAB Australian Business Diversity Index is a new addition to NAB’s Quarterly Business Survey, and it aims to help Australian industries and businesses better understand diversity performance, in an effort to drive change.
Australia’s Federal system of Government makes State Governments a critical part of the overall fiscal and economic performance of Australia. This handbook is intended to provide a comprehensive update and reference tool on both the economies and fiscal finances for each State.
Weak retail trade and net exports point to soft GDP growth in Q2. Headwinds remain, but business conditions jumped to four year high, while, business confidence, orders and capacity utilisation all looking better. We have trimmed our global forecasts.
Global growth remains moderate but monthly trade and industrial growth continues to slow. Economic conditions mixed between regions with solid upturns in the UK and US, weakness in Japan and signs of slowing in the Euro-zone. Emerging market economies still driving most global growth
Business confidence again surprised on the upside, supported by better business conditions (largely reflecting sales and profits) and a surge in retailer confidence. Firms still unfazed about the Budget (for now). Conditions jumped to a four year high
Commodity prices remained divergent in July, reflecting broadly positive but somewhat mixed economic data as well as flaring geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Crude prices fell in early July as concerns about a disruption to Iraqi oil supplies dissipated.
SME business confidence eased again in the June quarter, but is holding up against heightened consumer anxiety with the support of positive sentiment in property and construction. Conditions rose slightly, but are still at levels suggesting sub-trend growth.
Business confidence eased a touch, but remains at relatively resilient levels post-budget. Business conditions improved marginally as underperforming industries improve. Forward indicators point to further modest improvement over coming months.
After rising through 2013, the main business surveys have gone sideways in 2014 and the pace of global growth has slipped slightly. We have lowered our global GDP forecasts for 2014 from 3.4% to 3.2%.
Moderate global growth continues after early 2014’s slowing, resulting in slightly lower growth forecasts in 2014 but nearer trend in out years. Mixed picture among advanced economies as US & Euro-zone growth disappoints expectations but UK expansion stays solid...
Business confidence recorded an unexpected increase in the month, with firms apparently shrugging off the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence that followed May’s Federal budget. Firms are sticking to their expectation for stronger activity despite business conditions remaining
The relative price stability that characterised oil, in particular Brent, in the first half of 2014 has been shaken of late by unexpectedly severe sectarian turmoil in Iraq. However, with Iraqi exports largely unaffected, prices have now eased somewhat.
Bulk commodity markets recorded another relatively weak month –with iron ore prices continuing to ease (falling below US$100 a tonne), thermal coal prices remaining weak, while metallurgical coal eased higher –away from particularly low levels.
The generally upward trend in advanced economy purchasing manager surveys began to fade through late 2013 and 2014 and that has been followed by a levelling out in the rate of growth in world trade and industrial output.
Global growth levelled off through late 2013 and early 2014, partly due to bad weather hitting North America. Advanced economy upturn looks set to continue as interest rates stay low and as the peak in fiscal consolidation has passed
Business confidence survived the government’s ‘tough budget’ intact, but business conditions eased again (reflecting sales). Employment and profits were steady at soft levels. Conditions are mixed across industries, but are generally negative outside of services
Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey handed down the 2014 Federal Budget last night and there’s plenty to talk about. Our team of economists have analysed what it means for you, your business and a variety of key industries with our summary fact sheets.
The infrastructure sector was one of the big winners in the Federal Budget, with the share of infrastructure spending rising in both dollar terms and as a share of government spending. This should go some way in helping to fill the void left by retreating mining investment.
Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian small business. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.
Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian business. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.
The key focus related to health in this year’s Budget is savings. The introduction of GP co-payments, changes to PBS provisions, Medicare safety nets and indexation arrangements will contribute significant savings. We assess the key initiatives impacting Australia’s health sector.
Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian agribusinesses. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.
Business conditions more subdued in April but confidence up marginally – shrugging off ‘tough budget’ rhetoric. Sales eased slightly, employment slightly better but still soft, profits weaker. Conditions remain volatile and mixed across industries…
Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.
Charitable giving grew by more than 8% in the year to February 2014, which is a substantial improvement on the 3.3% rate of growth seen in the previous year. Overall, charitable giving has grown by almost 19% since December 2010.
Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.
SME business confidence eased for the first time in over a year – consistent with persistently soft conditions and trends seen by larger firms. Nevertheless, business activity has improved with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2010 – although still sub-trend.
Business confidence eased from its recent high but remained elevated in the March quarter. Business conditions were soft, but are now much better than 6-months earlier. Forward indicators point to further modest improvements over coming months.
The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Some of this reflected the disruptive impact of bad weather on supply chains but the March business survey results suggest a levelling out in the pace of growth
Business conditions lifted slightly in March, but remained at relatively subdued levels, weighing on business optimism. Confidence still positive but softened to its lowest post-election level to be below long-run trend.
Global economy growing around trend but signs in early 2014 that accelerating growth phase has ended. Mixed conditions across regions with advanced economies providing more of global output expansion as Chinese growth rate trends down.
Economic data was mixed over the past month, but the impact from severe weather on advanced economies appears to be abating. Partial indicators suggest China’s economy has continued to slow. US tapered QE again and markets remain volatile as they try to discern Fed direction.
The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Nevertheless, this softer note probably reflects bad weather disrupting supply chains.
Recent recovery short lived? Business conditions back-pedalled sharply in February reversing around half post election gains. Confidence softened but still remains marginally above trend. Sales and employment fell markedly during the month, with the latter pointing to very weak labour
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.
Global upturn hampered by severe winter weather conditions in the northern hemisphere. Emerging markets (including China) showing signs of a slowdown, although Chinese trade and credit data have been robust.
The Manufacturing Activity Index continued with its slow improvement in Q4, supported by strong business confidence and falling labour costs. The index implies activity in the manufacturing industry expanded by 0.5% in Q4.
SME business confidence up for a fourth quarter – consistent with increases seen by larger firms. Confidence is finally gaining traction to support business activity, with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2011 – but remain soft.
Toyota has announced it would terminate automotive manufacturing operations in Australia by the end of 2017. Ford and General Motors (Holden) previously announced they would close their operations in 2016. The strength of the AUD has weighed heavily on an already struggling industry
Business conditions maintained last months momentum and is approaching 3 year highs while confidence was up for the first time in 4 months – both near or above trend levels. Employment index much better, but still suggests soft labour market conditions.
Business confidence in the December quarter was at its highest in more than 2½ years. Business conditions lifted to their highest level in more than 12 months suggesting activity is starting to catch up - albeit still below trend.
Business surveys and partial data on trade and industrial output show moderate global economic growth continuing through to the end of 2013. There are mixed trends across Emerging markets, with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.
Are we at a turning point? Business conditions jump to more than 2½ year high, while confidence broadly unchanged – both now near trend levels. Sales and profits up sharply – especially in wholesale, transport and services – reducing excess capacity slightly.
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.
We expect Q4 underlying inflation to print at 0.6% (2.3% through the year) on Wednesday. This would be the fifth successive outcome in the bottom half of the RBA target range. Subdued wages growth and weak domestic demand continue to keep core inflation well under control.
The limp performance of metals and bulk commodities over the past couple of years has resembled a unicycle rather than the superbike of previous years. According to Simon Wright of The Economist, the 2014 outlook for demand is rosier and commodity prices should start climbing once again.
Global upturn continues with advanced economies seeing faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.
September industrial output and broader measures of quarterly GDP are finally showing economic growth starting to lift in line with both the business surveys and our forecast for a global upturn in 2014 (growth at 3½% unchanged).
Business conditions and confidence broadly unchanged - with confidence still much higher than conditions. While still weak, business conditions appear to be trending higher. Trading conditions up - especially mining and manufacturing - with capacity utilisation off its recent lows.
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies see faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.
November’s Third Plenum unveiled a wide ranging reform agenda from China’s Government. Proposed deregulation would increase free market influence and could support a stronger medium term growth profile for the economy.
Global growth rose from 2.4% to 2.8% between March and June quarters and we are expecting 2.9% for 2013 overall, increasing to 3.5% next year. The national accounts and business surveys show a quickening pace of growth in the big advanced economies with the UK and Japan the standout.
Firms reassess their confidence on the outlook as business conditions undershoot again. Capacity utilisation falls sharply - especially in manufacturing, construction, mining and retail - despite low interest rates and improved housing and equity markets.
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing faster recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Mixed trends across emerging markets with solid Chinese growth but disappointing outcomes in India.
In October, indicators of global economic activity were mixed, casting some doubt over signs of recovery in the advanced economies. The upturn is still under way, but the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.
Donations grew 2.5% (12-month average) in August with an average annual donation of $312 per donor. Giving grew fastest for “Other” (12.8%) and Health & Disability (9.1%) charities, but fell for Humanitarian Services (-3.2%) and Medical Research & Services (-2.4%) charities.
The average price of gold eased by around 2½% in October, though the daily spot price generally strengthened over the second half of the month and is currently trading at around $1,340 per ounce. Gold is set to record its first annual price decline since 2000.
SME business confidence broadly unchanged – with no sign of the political kick in confidence seen elsewhere in business. That may in part reflect a significant fall in business conditions in the quarter. SME performance in poor sectors of the economy were similar to larger firms.
Businesses become more confident in the September quarter. This fundamentally appears to be driven by political factors – albeit the lower AUD and rates, together with stronger asset markets would have helped.
In September, overall demand for commodities gained support from progress in the global economic recovery. Positive data from major economies is adding to confidence that the recovery in the big advanced economies is currently on track.
After a period where the data showed accelerating growth in the big advanced economies, the latest numbers have been more mixed. Although an upturn is still under way, the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.
Animal spirits lift again. Confidence surges to its highest level in 3½ years. Business conditions, however, still subdued - with employment poor. Signs of better conditions in finance/ business/ property and construction.
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed - but growth momentum has slowed a touch through mid-2013. Composition of global growth still shifting toward advanced economies with mixed trends in emerging markets.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a marginal deterioration in overall business conditions in the June quarter, with the level remaining close to four year lows. All states experienced difficult conditions in the quarter.
Recent business surveys show a solid and synchronised lift in business confidence across the advanced economies whose annualised 3-month industrial growth now exceeds that of the emerging economies.
Confidence rises everywhere and surges in mining, construction and finance/ business/ property. This appears to reflect expectations of political change & more certainty about future political frameworks. Against that, business conditions and capacity utilisation remained poor.
Recent data show a promising lift in business sentiment in big advanced economies but financial volatility hitting emerging market growth prospects (India, ASEAN, and Brazil). Little change in headline global growth forecast with advanced economy upturn set to drive faster world economy
More positive news on the major economies has provided a slight boost to most commodity prices in August, with the long awaited rotation of global growth towards the big advanced economies seemingly underway. Global manufacturing activity also appears to have gained momentum.
The price of gold fell by a notable 4.3% in July, but has stabilised more recently, recovering by a modest 2.8% over August to date. Spot gold is currently around $1,380 an ounce. The price of gold will certainly record its first annual decline since 2000.
Central bank statements reinforcing their guidance that interest rates should stay low for a long time yet across the big advanced economies, have supported financial markets. Recent business surveys and industrial data point to an upturn in growth in these advanced economies
Global growth unchanged as modest country forecast revisions cancel each other out. We see moderate acceleration in global growth to around trend in 2014. Recent data show promising signs in big advanced economies while conditions still softening in emerging market economies.
Business conditions remain at 4 year lows while confidence slumps to 8 month low - despite a falling AUD and lower interest rates. Conditions very poor in manufacturing, construction, mining, retail and wholesale; WA now the weakest state.
The government’s economic forecasts now recognise the softness of the domestic economy and the weaker outlook for commodity prices and incomes. In the near term the Budget now looks to be slightly adding to growth (rather than detracting as at Budget time).
We had already been forecasting a 25bps rate cut in August to 2½% and with the Governor giving the green light for lower interest rates this now looks a sure thing. We now also expect an additional 25bps cut to 2.25% before year end – most likely in November after the Q3 CPI.
SME confidence & conditions improve significantly with activity of smaller firms outperforming larger firms for the first time in almost four years. SME conditions strengthened across most industries.
Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.
Business conditions struggle in the June quarter and confidence falls back, driven by a pessimistic mining sector. Falling equities and offshore concerns likely to be weighing on sentiment. Little sign yet that lower interest rates and AUD are helping.
Equity and currency market volatility reflects uncertainties over the pace at which the Fed might alter US monetary policy, Chinese authorities might clamp down on shadow banking and the potential impact of the Bank of Japan’s move to greater monetary easing.
Business conditions and capacity utilisation slump to a four year low. Confidence a little better but still below trend. Conditions very bad in retail, mining and manufacturing, despite low interest rates and falling AUD, though signs a little better for exports.
Global growth forecasts unchanged. A few signs that activity is picking up in some advanced economies but India and Brazil still soft and growing concerns over pace of Chinese growth. Markets focussed on central bank policy driving greater volatility in equities and currencies.
The asymmetric (downside) risks we alluded to in our previous AUD forecast update have eventuated and we have now made further downward revisions. The Fed's return to the (early stages) of policy normalcy in itself justifies an AUD/USD in the low 0.80s.
Overall, the heightened volatility in global financial markets associated with central bank decisions in the US and China has weighed on commodity prices. The slowdown in the Chinese economy is also gaining traction in markets and further weakens demand prospects.
Expectations for the US Federal Reserve to begin tapering its $85 billion in monthly debt buying this year, a rising US dollar and a slowing Chinese economy have sent ripples through the gold market. The price of gold is now heading for its first annual decline since 2000.
In the final quarter of 2012-13, the Indian economy grew by 4.8%. This was broadly similar to the upwardly revised third quarter estimate of 4.7%. Somewhat softer growth in the last 2 quarters of the current fiscal year has pushed overall growth in 2012/2013 to 5%, the lowest in a decade.
In its mid quarter Monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark Repo rate at 7.25% and the Reverse Repo rate at 6.25%. The RBI expressed concern at the sudden, steep depreciation in the Rupee amid a high current account deficit.
The consensus view is that the pace of global growth should accelerate through the course of 2013 as recessions end in Western Europe, Abenomics lifts Japanese growth, the US continues its moderate expansion and solid growth continues in the big emerging economies.
Business conditions remain at low levels (marginally higher) with unchanged mediocre confidence levels. Conditions better in wholesale, manufacturing and construction, but mining worsens. Any confidence gained from falling dollar and May rate cut have been undermined by domestic weakness
Global growth forecasts little changed. Still waiting to see firm evidence that the expected acceleration in activity through 2013 is beginning. Australian economy now at a watershed as mining investment slows and domestic economy struggles.
We have been flagging likely downward revisions to our AUD forecast for a couple of weeks now, following first the somewhat unexpected May RBA rate cut then the range-break higher in US Treasury yields
Commodity markets have been mixed but overall sentiment remains bearish reflecting soft economic data in most regions. However, signs of improvement in the US economy could help to support commodity demand, but the effect on market expectations for Fed stimulus will create headwinds.
The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics’ (BREE) latest biannual update on the state of mining, infrastructure and processing facilities projects in Australia has provided further evidence that the peak in mining investment is quickly approaching.
Our panel of economists break down the impacts of the 2013 Federal Budget for education headlined by the increase in school funding as well as increased funding for early childhood development. Find out what all the key initiatives are.
Business conditions remain very difficult and confidence stumbles after showing signs of recovery earlier this year. Despite less negativity in retail & manufacturing, activity still very poor and labour market showing new signs of weakness.
The gold price fell by 6.6% over April. Recent gold demand appears to have fallen sharply on news of soft US inflation, slowing Chinese growth as well as fears that highly indebted European countries like Cyprus may resort to selling gold reserves.
ASX 300 show greater resilience than the broader economy in Q1, with conditions stable. Finance, Business & Property considerably stronger. Confidence rebounded but weaker forward orders & stocks point to potential softness in the next quarter.
SME confidence & conditions edge higher in March quarter but still near post-GFC lows; SMEs more pessimistic than larger firms and activity also more subdued. Capacity utilisation falls to lowest level in history, despite tick up in forward orders. Signs lower borrowing rates are helping…
With little indication of inflation pressures emerging in the early months of 2013, we expect the CPI release (due 24 April) to confirm that underlying inflation remained subdued in March quarter 2013. We see underlying inflation remaining within the RBA’s target over the medium to longer…
Business confidence lifts from late 2012 lows but still below average. That reflects better global confidence, stronger equity prices and lower borrowing rates at home. Conditions still subdued and with marked weakness in trade and consumer dependent sectors. Forward indicators …
Charitable giving slowed in the year to February 2013 as economic conditions and consumption weakened, and business and consumers became more cautious. The NAB Charitable Giving Index grew by 2.6% (12-month average) in February 2013 – down from 8.3% in the same period one year earlier.
Our global forecasts remain little changed at 3.3% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014. Renewed Euro-zone instability has taken a toll on global equity markets, which had strengthened quite markedly since late 2012, especially when compared to global economic activity and commodity markets.
Commodity markets have turned bearish again following softer than expected economic data outcomes and concerns over a government crack down on Chinese real estate. The Cyprus banking crisis has also dampened confidence, while the terms of the EU bailout, and subsequent rhetoric has …
Global growth forecasts unchanged. Activity still sluggish but set to accelerate in second half of 2013. Financial markets digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) and new Japanese monetary policy.
Business conditions fall to weakest level in almost four years but confidence steady. Previous surge in activity in consumer sectors retail & manufacturing unwinds, with signs lower interest rates need more time to fully work through economy.
The disparity between business conditions that became increasingly pronounced following the GFC has narrowed over recent quarters; however, the convergence of conditions readings largely reflects a weakening in previously stronger performing industries and regions, suggesting…
Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook has firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best.
Global economy still sluggish in late 2012 but equities strengthen on stronger risk appetite and expectations of sustained global recovery. Partial data suggest better start to 2013; we still see marginally better growth in major advanced economies this year, accelerating in 2014.
Business conditions & confidence both edge down in February. High AUD hurting manufacturing and lack of non-mining demand weighing on most sectors. Large falls in orders, poor capacity use, and weak capex plans (esp. mining) don’t augur well for near-term (weak) domestic demand.
Once again, movements in commodity prices have been dominated by events in China and growing speculation over the timed withdrawal of QE stimulus by the US Fed. With market participants on the sidelines throughout most of February due to many of the Asian economies celebrating the …
SME confidence & conditions weaken a touch in Q4 and poor relative to history; sentiment and activity of SMEs a touch weaker than their larger counterparts. Forward indicators remain subdued implying little upturn in near-term activity. Weakness in manufacturing, retail, wholesale and ….
Business confidence hangs on to gains made last month on reduced global fears. Business conditions improve a touch, but still poor. Signs that previously stronger industries are being dragged down by weakness elsewhere. Capacity utilisation now lowest since 2001 and forward orders remain …
Business conditions weaken to lowest level since June quarter 2009; weakness very apparent in construction, manufacturing and now mining. Forward indicators worsen. Confidence edges lower and very subdued – especially in mining. Medium-term expectations poor and capex lower again.
Financial and commodity markets have generally strengthened recently, following the last minute agreement to hold off the US fiscal cliff. Signs of strengthening in China’s manufacturing sector has also provided some confidence about the outlook for global growth.
Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best. Central bank action in the Euro-zone, US and Japan has boosted market hopes
Global economy sluggish in late 2012 but signs of an upturn, that gathers pace through next two years. Financial markets strengthen reflecting “risk on” as confidence in global outlook strengthens in wake of central bank action. Emerging market economies will still drive global growth.
Business confidence posts a sharp jump in December, but not so activity and forward indicators, which remain poor - particularly wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction. Better external sentiment (temporary avoidance of the US ‘fiscal cliff’), strengthening in Chinese data
We expect the December quarter CPI release (due 23 January) to confirm that inflationary pressures remained moderate in the final months of 2012. We expect a core inflation rate of 0.7% (2.4% through the year; including the impact of carbon), unchanged from the September quarter...
RBA now expected to cut by 75 points to 2¼% as economy struggles. With the economy continuing to weaken and unemployment set to rise noticeably through 2013 the RBA will need to cut significantly further than previously expected in 2013.
Although interest rates are historically low in the advanced economies and central banks have stepped up liquidity injections, their pace of economic growth remains very weak. The big emerging economies are driving global growth, and it looks as if their economies are stabilising.
Global growth still sluggish and expected to stay that way in 2013. US growth is moderate, Japan and Euro-zone weak, emerging economies now driving global expansion. Australian economy slowed in Q3 and may soften again in Q4.
The brakes have firmly tightened on activity in November; business conditions very weak in construction, retail, manufacturing and wholesale. Signs of trouble ahead with confidence slumping to lowest level since April 2009, with little hint of a pre-Christmas revival
Global growth still sluggish with major divergences between different regions. Below trend growth expected to continue into 2013 as world economy averts major risks in US and Euro-zone. Australian economy stumbles into Q4, with growth clearly below trend.
Business conditions stumble to weakest level in more than three years, with wholesale and manufacturing conditions especially subdued. Confidence also edges lower. Activity forecasts unchanged but 25bp February rate cut on the cards, providing modest Q4 CPI.
The gold price rose by a spectacular 7 per cent over September. Some of the strength has subsequently been unwound, with the gold price easing to around US$1,710 per ounce in early November. We have lifted our forecasts a little
Australian online retail sales up 23 percent yoy in September, but the level is still modest compared to traditional sales. Domestic online retailers continue to innovate – in an effort to develop or maintain a competitive advantage.
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. It aims to share business insights and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter.
SME confidence and conditions better in Q3 but still below average; sentiment of SMEs now in line with their larger counterparts but activity, capacity utilisation and new orders continue to under perform. Strength in recreation & personal services and transport a consistent theme
Business conditions improve in the quarter but still soft. However, Monthly survey results suggest conditions weakened towards the end of the quarter. Forward indicators remain very weak. Confidence up a touch but still at downbeat levels – especially mining
Economic conditions in NSW are likely to improve only marginally over the coming year with conditions within the state likely to vary wildly. By all measures, the Victorian economy continues to under perform the national average, with SFD growth slowing to 2.1 per cent in 2011-12
Conditions recover and businesses take comfort from better sales, a lower AUD and talk of interest rate cuts. Global uncertainty still weighing on near-term activity indicators. Business conditions improved in September, after edging down over the previous two months, with the outcome suggesting that the Australian economy may be stabilising. However, there are still signs […]
Over September, minerals and energy prices have been assisted higher by central bank monetary easing and various other stimulus measures taken by policy makers around the world. Bad news has become good, and good news has become ‘bad’ for markets.
The latest business surveys suggest that conditions in the big advanced economies have stabilised after the softening in growth that took place since late 2011. Monthly trade and industrial indicators still point to a broad-based slowing across the emerging economie
Business confidence recovers modestly but still down beat – especially mining. Business conditions disappoint – with struggling retail and wholesale falling significantly. Forward orders noticeably weaker and capacity utilisation trending down - indicative of weakening demand.
Global economy slowing but recent advanced economy surveys show stabilisation. Broad-based slowing under way across emerging economies. Global forecasts a touch lower in 2013 but risks remain (US “fiscal cliff”). Australian economy softening to below trend amid restructuring stresses.
Growth in online spending remains strong - relative to the past year - with spending increasing by around +22% year-on-year in August. This level is slightly softer than in July. In the year to August 2012, Australians spent a total of $11.9 billion in online retail sales. This figure is equivalent to 5.4% of traditional bricks & mortar retail spending (excluding cafes, restaurants and takeaway food) for the year ended July 2012.
A monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. The Bigger Picture – A Global & Australian Economic Perspective Global: The global economy is experiencing a broad-based slowdown with both the advanced and emerging economies reporting a softening in growth. Conditions vary between regions with recession in Western Europe, slowdowns in China, India and […]
We have changed our forecast and now see the RBA moving to cut the cash rate again in the coming months, probably by a cumulative 50 basis points; What has changed is that in recent weeks the RBA has signalled concern about the mix of the sustained drop in commodity and ongoing high AUD; Other […]
The IMF has revised down its forecasts of world growth, particularly for advanced economies. Its Australian forecasts have also been downgraded, to 1.8% in 2011 (from 3.0% in April – catch up after weaker than expected GDP in H1) and 3.3% in 2012 (from 3.5%). For 2011 NABs forecast is 1.9%, not materially different from […]
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales growth recorded […]
NAB’s Global and Australian Forecast provides a monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. Global economy still slowing with softening across advanced and emerging economies. Growth set to pick-up in 2013 as worst economic risks averted. Australian economy still drifting through soft patch with falling commodity prices now weighing on mining. But investment […]
Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions improve on the back of strengthening trading and profitability – especially in interest sensitive sectors. But confidence falls […]
Global economy slows with softening evident across advanced and emerging economies. Worst risks should be averted and global growth to pick-up slightly in 2013. Australian economy at trend but softening, while confidence helped by Euro-zone comments and lower interest rates. Labour market and orders still soft but activity to hold up sufficiently to circumvent need […]
Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions worsen in the face of poor trading and profits, with weakness particularly evident in retail and wholesale – […]
London 2012 Olympics upon us but the boost to gold demand from Australian athletes still quite limited. The gold price eased by 0.4 per cent over July, and following a rally late last week, has fallen back to around US$1,590 per ounce. It is difficult to know what direction the gold price will take in […]
Business conditions improve slightly but overall activity remains soft; forward orders and employment conditions imply weak near-term demand. Confidence falls marginally, implying little relief from RBA rate cuts; European uncertainty and new taxes may be weighing on sentiment. Government handouts provide some respite to consumer dependant sectors but benefits may be short-lived – time will […]
Retail drives ASX 300 business conditions lower in Q2, with a weaker trend tipped for Q3. Business conditions deteriorated across the economy in the second quarter of 2012, with declines recorded among firms in both the ASX 300 survey and the broader Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). ASX 300 firms recorded a net balance of 0 […]
The NAB Manufacturing Activity Index provides detailed analysis of activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector and has been constructed to replicate quarterly movements in activity within the sector. The Manufacturing Activity Index* eased further in Q2, remaining in negative territory – despite some divergent trends in individual sub-sectors. The index implies declines in quarter-on-quarter growth in […]
NAB takes a closer look at the growing economic integration of the Australian economy to growth in the Chinese economy. Australia’s growth is becoming increasingly sensitive to the strength of the Chinese economy China’s growth looks to be heading towards a soft landing But what would happen if growth is de-railed? It seems likely that […]
The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence & conditions deteriorate further. Weakness in small firms increasingly pronounced compared to their larger counterparts – weakness in manufacturing, retail and construction a persistent theme across all small firm […]
Commentary and forecasts on key non rural commodities - minerals and energy.
Business conditions weaken; forward orders and other indicators of near-term demand still soft. Confidence slips further, with heightened European uncertainty seemingly outweighing relief provided from RBA rate cuts – new taxes may also be weighing on sentiment. Business conditions weakened in the June quarter, following modestly better activity over recent quarters. Official ABS data suggest […]
Business conditions now the weakest in three years: mining and construction down sharply. Confidence falters on global Greek exit fears, weak orders and negative reaction to the May Budget. Indicators of demand imply softer near-term activity and more jobs shedding in weak sectors. RBA to cut again in coming months. Business confidence deteriorated sharply in […]
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales growth continued […]
Businesses remain confident of better near-term activity but actual conditions weaken in April – with multi-speed element widening again. Forward indicators remain lacklustre, with a material decline in capacity utilisation signalling increased slack in the economy – and further weakness in the labour market ahead. More rate action to come, although how much depends on […]
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. The value of the […]
The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions edge higher but lack of jobs growth likely to keep near-term activity fairly soft. Confidence slips back and remains below trend. Forward […]
Confidence and conditions grind higher but with little jobs growth. Forward indicators marginally improve but remain subdued. Multi speed economy still to the fore – with non mining edging up a touch. Domestic forecasts edge lower with unemployment up. Rates view unchanged. Businesses appeared slightly more confident about near-term activity in March than in February, […]
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Growth in online sales […]
The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Seasonal adjustment of SME survey results SME survey data reported in the March 2012 NAB Quarterly SME Business Survey have been seasonally adjusted for the first time in the history of […]
Australian economic commentary on a state by state basis. NSW Following a relatively sluggish year, the growth momentum in NSW appears to be lifting, with SFD increasing by 0.8 per cent in the December quarter. Importantly, NSW appears to have an investment driver with business investment lifting in the December quarter, buoyed by a solid […]
Confidence retreats while conditions edge higher. Forward indicators remain weak. Retail, manufacturing and construction still struggling while services, transport and mining strong. Growth lowered locally. Businesses appeared less confident about near-term activity in February than in January. While overall confidence remained positive, uncertainty emanating from the euro-zone and financial markets, the persistent strength in the […]
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales strengthen in […]
Confidence and conditions a touch better but economy still marking time. Sectors remain wide apart. Inflation weakening as retailers increase discounts and one more rate cut possible. Overall business confidence was relatively firm in the month, with businesses seemingly still taking relief from the recent RBA rate cuts as well some abatement of concerns about […]
The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Despite better business conditions and improved confidence, survey still only suggestive of an economy growing at around trend. Forward indicators slightly better, implying a […]
Confidence up a touch in December, despite global economic worries. Conditions consistent with an economy going sideways – but multi- speed. GDP forecasts lowered & two rate cuts now expected in 2012. Business confidence strengthened a little in December, although it remained below the series long-run average. Business sentiment over recent months has been seemingly […]
New World Bank projections show 2012 global growth slowing to only 2½%, well below NAB’s 3¼% forecast. The difference is largely illusory and reflects how forecasts are compiled. On a comparable basis NAB forecasts are slightly lower than the World Bank’s. For further analysis download the full report. Difference over global outlook more apparent than […]
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Strong rebound in business confidence for ASX300 firms – exceeding the broader economy; business conditions record […]
The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence and conditions rebound but still below levels of their larger counterparts. Low tier (smallest) SMEs struggle. SME firms reported improved confidence in the December quarter – especially compared to […]
Conditions improve slightly in November and are consistent with an economy growing around trend. Services sectors (ex. finance) and retail doing better. Confidence overall relatively stable – despite European concerns. GDP revised up on mining & consumer strength. Business conditions edged higher in November, after softening a little in the previous month, and are consistent […]
Conditions soften in October, suggesting growth in the economy is treading water. But, for the second month in a row, confidence has improved. Also tentative signs of Qld re-construction kicking in. Business conditions softened in October, partly unwinding an improvement in conditions in the previous month, with trend conditions suggestive of an economy that is […]
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey is the most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions slump and confidence falters mid-quarter, but monthly profile points to subsequent improving trend. Hours worked strengthens […]
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Business conditions for ASX300 declined further in Q3 – driven by manufacturing – narrowing the gap […]
The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Subdued SME conditions persist and confidence falls further. Business confidence of SMEs fell heavily in the September quarter, consolidating a sharp decline in the June quarter and consistent with the deterioration […]
Global jitters jolt confidence. But could have been worse given global turmoil. Business conditions only a touch weaker – but with further restructuring evident in a widening of the multi-speed economy. Business confidence dropped sharply in August, with heightened global uncertainty, large falls in equity markets and the fear of debt market contagion. Confidence deteriorated […]
Business conditions weaken showing an economy continuing to lose momentum and traveling below trend. Confidence remains subdued in the face of continuing uncertainty – but carbon didn’t appear to cause further retreat. Growth in the domestic economy weakening in July, with business conditions now indicative of below-trend growth. This weakening trend was broad based – […]
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