Business Research & Insights

Below trend growth to continue

Commercial broking is as much a business strategy as it is a skill set, writes Chris Thomas, executive commercial broker and equipment finance sales at NAB. Article originally published in Australian Broker on 14/11/23.

Financial hardship rises for the 6th consecutive quarter

Online retail sales grew strongly in October, following on from a rebound in September.

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

Global growth resilient in Q3 but set to slow going into 2024

Growth outlook upgraded but 4.6% rate peak ahead

Bond-fuelled lending to support near-term growth but challenges remain unaddressed

Our monthly transaction data showed a fall in spending in October across a number of categories including retail as well as a range of services sectors.

Confidence remains low despite healthy conditions

Welcome to CoreLogic’s housing market update for November 2023.

Growth holding up but subdued year ahead

NAB expects follow up hike in February 2024

Q3 GDP growth very strong but not sustainable

Searching for some signal in the noise – digging deeper into China’s Q3 GDP data

Challenging conditions (particularly in Office and Retail markets) weighed further on commercial property market sentiment in Q3…

How do young people really feel about life beyond school including their career goals, potential barriers and optimism about the future? Find out more in the latest NAB Education Insights Special Report (Part 3) available for download.

There was a broad-based rebound in online retail sales in September

Household financial stress eases after rising for the past 6 quarters as Australians grow more accustomed to a number of ongoing pressures, but financial concerns are still climbing among lower income earners.

SME conditions improve but smallest firms still negative

The NAB Residential Property Index maintained its upward momentum in Q3.

Cost of living stress eases after rising for 7 consecutive quarters

Labour costs rise as price inflation remains elevated

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

China’s third quarter growth beat expectations; 2023 forecast edges back above target

Inflation yet to be defeated – policy rates could stay high for longer

Growth to remain subdued, but avoid a major downturn

Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the slowing down of the economy.

Job switching & intentions, employee satisfaction, working from home & perceptions of collaboration & productivity.

Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with growth in September following on from fairly strong nominal growth in prior months.

CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index recorded a 0.8% rise in September as the recovery trend moved through an eighth consecutive month of growth.

Revising up short-term growth; Fed cuts delayed

Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity

On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, growth contracted in August

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

Central banks may be at their peaks, but energy prices pose a risk to disinflation trend

Rural businesses are looking for equipment funding solutions that meet their needs in an evolving environment. Article originally published in The Advisor on 20/09/23

Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience

The national Home Value Index rose 0.8% in August marking a sixth consecutive month in this growth phase.

Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with July and August both showing fairly strong growth in consumer spending overall.

Employment index rises as resilience continues

Scams: Education, training & slower payment processing to minimise scams and cybersecurity risks.

Growth remained subdued in Q2.

Are authorities unable or unwilling to address the real problem in China’s economy?

Q3 off to a strong start even as inflation eases

NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in July.

NAB sees a +0.5% q/q (1.9% y/y) GDP print for Q2 2023 which will confirm the slowing in domestic demand we have seen across other indicators. Both ABS retail sales data and our own transactions data points to a flat outcome for consumption following 0.2% growth in Q1.

An exclusive webinar on the Commercial Property Development Market. Watch now.

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

The impact on SMEs

How big is the issue for SMEs?

Soft landing hopes rise but headwinds remain

Soft start to Q3 signals a growing chance that China could miss its annual growth target

Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left

Our monthly transaction data showed a surprisingly positive result for July, with spending still holding up.

The national Home Value Index rose 0.7% in July marking a fifth consecutive month in the recovery trend to-date. Since finding a floor in February, the national index is up 4.1%, following a -9.1% decline from record highs in April 2022.

Conditions still above average despite warning signs.

Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24

RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely

SMEs see conditions weaken in Q2 as economy slows

NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in June.

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives

Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?

Commercial property market sentiment and confidence moderates in Q2 amid growing economic uncertainty…

The NAB Residential Property Index bounced sharply in Q2.

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

Supply issues easing but labour still hard to find

China’s weak Q2 growth presages weaker global growth

A slow second half, but persistent inflation

China’s recovery lost momentum in Q2 and the outlook for the second half remains cloudy

Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the challenging times ahead.

Any significant change to global supply chains will take time

Our monthly transaction data showed a broadly flat result for June, with a lift in hospitality spending but a fall in retail.

Australian housing values have moved through a fourth month of recovery with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index rising 1.1% in June, decelerating slightly from the 1.2% gain recorded in May.

Conditions still above average despite warning signs

Concern over cost of living climbs again as ‘considered consumers’ focus on the things they value most.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew rapidly this month, following on from very subdued growth over the past two months.

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

Global growth set to slow as monetary policy bites

4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather

Fed pauses in June, but another hike is likely

Weakness in domestic demand led to underperformance in May

Is China finding new markets for its exports?

Our monthly transaction data showed a small rise in spending in May (in seasonally adjusted terms), driven by discretionary spending.

Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks

Worrying signs of a slowing in activity

The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.

A soft start to 2023

A slow start for growth in 2023

Activity – and inflation – resilience continues

How do young people really feel about school? Find out more in the latest NAB Education Insights Special Report (Part 2) available for download.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index was flat in month-on-month in April, after a mild contraction in March.

Reports of a property rebound appear premature

How big is the issue for SMEs?

The impact on SMEs

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

Global growth set to slow from robust Q1 results

Base effects inflate growth in April; still waiting on demand to recover

Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response

Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months

It’s looking increasingly likely that Australian housing values have bottomed out, with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index having posted a second consecutive monthly rise. April’s half a percent increase, follows a 0.6% lift in March, leaving the Home Value Index 1.0% higher over the past three months.

Our economists stayed up all night so they could break down the Federal Budget for Australian businesses. Watch their take.

Business owners can look forward to energy bill relief, cash flow support and an extension of the instant asset write-off as part of this year's Federal Budget measures.

It was a big Budget for health, with significant support for bulk billing GPs, a focus on prescription costs and salary increases to attract more aged care workers.

Biosecurity was a big focus for this year's Federal Budget, with agribusinesses also set to benefit from energy bill relief and the instant asset write-off.

The 2023 Federal Budget signalled increased overall spending for unis, TAFE and vocational training post the reviews of the uni sector and the National Skills Agreement.

Our monthly transaction data showed another small fall in spending in April (in seasonally adjusted terms), largely driven by discretionary services categories.

Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.

The NAB Commercial Property Index improved a little further in Q1 but economic uncertainty seems to be weighing on confidence.

The Federal Government is signalling its budget will address cost-of-living pressures. But it’s also clear it wants to avoid spending up big. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster shares key insights into what that might mean for Australian businesses, families and individuals.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth contracted in March, following the strong February result.

Q1 GDP slowdown driven by inventories

How prevalent are attacks & scams & how are businesses & consumers responding?

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?

Little improvement in cost pressures for SMEs in Q1

Constraints still tight but prices past their peak

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

Bounce in global growth in Q1 won’t last

Services sector supports growth rebound in Q1, as base effects boost consumption

Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge

Australian agricultural commodity prices took another downward turn last month. The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 3.6% month-on-month on lower beef, lamb, canola, dairy and wool prices. The index is now 19.7% below year-ago levels.

Consumers continue to balance cost of living against job security

The NAB Residential Property Index recovered slightly, but is still well below the survey average and down sharply from the same time last year.

After a six-month period where the downwards trend in housing values consistently lost steam, CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index posted the first month-on-month rise since April 2022, up 0.6% in March. Dwelling values were higher across the four largest capital cities and most of the broad ‘rest-of-state’ regions, led by a 1.4% gain in Sydney.

Our monthly transaction data suggests spending turned a corner in March with total spending declining, after holding up through more than a year of high inflation and rising interest rates.

Conditions hold up, price pressures ease

Tentative recovery: Chinese outbound tourism continues to face constraints

The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain

Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms

Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak

NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth accelerated in February, after returning to growth in January.

The growing importance of sustainability as a consumer issue. Are SMEs ready?

Our global forecasts are little changed this month. Also, our outlook for the Australian economy is broadly unchanged.

Bounce in Q1 2023; but bank stress highlights weaker outlook

Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the challenging times ahead.

Australia passing through a possible turning point

Fed caught between strong data & bank panic

Modest reopening rebound in early 2023 with consumers yet to re-emerge

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending was broadly flat in February.

Confidence volatile but conditions still strong

A subtle 0.3% rise in Sydney dwelling values was the most significant driver of the national deceleration, however, the loss of downwards momentum was broad-based.

Step down: China’s cut its growth target to a multi-decade low

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?

The NAB Commercial Property Index improved in Q4, but is still negative overall and trending well below the survey average.

How do young people really feel about their lives? Find out more in the latest NAB Education Insights Special Report (Part 1) available for download.

Growth slows as consumption softens

In month-on-month terms, growth returned to the NAB Online Retail Sales Index, following on from a weak December result.

A solid outcome to round out 2022

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

Inflation is slowing but is still yet to be tamed

Rising rates to see slower growth ahead

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending picked back up in January after a small fall in December, with strength across most spending categories.

Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%

New-year confidence boost as resilience continues

January data surprise = higher fed funds rate

COVID’s rapid spread may allow a faster economic rebound in 2023

Conditions eased for SMEs in late 2022.

The housing market started the year where it left off in 2022, chalking up the ninth consecutive monthly drop in Australian home values. The national Home Value Index was down -1% over the first month of the year following a larger -1.1% fall in December.

Consumer stress rises as cost-of-living pressures continue to bite.

How big is the issue for SMEs & what are they doing to overcome these challenges?

The impact on SMEs & how business is responding.

The NAB Residential Property Index fell for the third straight quarter as the downturn in national housing prices deepened

Confidence down with constraints remaining tight

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December after two months of growth in October and November.

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending softened in December after a solid rise in November.

Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed

Q4 GDP looks solid but weakness emerging

Transition away from zero-COVID could boost growth in 2023, however needs to rebalance towards consumption

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

Australian agricultural commodity prices retreated on average last month, with the NAB Rural Commodities Index down 2.6% m/m in November.

Latest COVID-19 wave impacting activity in Q4; COVID policy pivot could provide boost in 2023 (after transition period).

With inflation still high, policy rate hikes to slow growth in ‘23

Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the challenging times ahead.

Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.

Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3

Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.

Domestic demand solid early in Q4

Post-COVID normalisation continues.

CoreLogic's national Home Value Index moved through a seventh month of decline last month with values dropping -1.0%, bringing values approximately -$53,400 below April's peak.

US chips controls could constrain China’s tech development goals

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Slowing growth as consumption, trade normalise

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index is back in positive territory.

Financial hardship in Australia rose for the second straight quarter in Q3.

China refines, not abandons, zero-COVID and remains without an exit strategy

The impacts on business & supporting local manufacturing to address them

Australian agricultural commodity prices have posted a slight uptick in the last two months, as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index.

We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.

NAB’s Commercial Property Index shifted back into negative territory in Q3.

Further monetary tightening to significantly slow growth in 2023.

Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.

Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.

CoreLogic’s national home value index moved through its sixth month of decline last month, with values down a further 1.2%, taking the cumulative drop from the market peak to 6.0%.

Conditions still strong but confidence weaker

Q3 GDP – economy growing again (for now).

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Could Xi Jinping extend his leadership beyond his third term?

Market sentiment: is it a good time to buy, sell, renovate & other property intentions

NAB Online Retail Sales Index returns to growth in September

Easing conditions for small firms, despite strong demand

Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%

Growth rebounded in Q3, but base effects flattered the results

Conditions holding up as constraints tighten

Consumer stress has fallen despite rising concerns over the cost of living as job pressures ease further

COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere

Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.

Central banks inflation priority leads to weak growth outlook

Our new monthly consumer spending analysis shows spending has remained strong over recent months, supported by rebounding hospitality spending and discretionary spending on travel and other activities.

Near term resilience but a slowing ahead

National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.

CoreLogic reported a further fall in housing values through the first month of spring, with our national Home Value Index recording a -1.4% decline. Although values are still falling quite rapidly, the rate of decline eased from a -1.6% fall in August.

Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing

Recession risk – Q3 breather likely temporary

Vicious cycle: falling land sales hitting local government revenues

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index has contracted for a seventh straight month.

Buyers fight back: Mortgage strike points to property sector’s weak underpinnings

Base effects flatter August’s growth rates, as a fresh COVID-19 wave threatens outlook

50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22

We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.

NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data to 10 September shows unexpected strength over the last two weeks.

Economic outlook weakens as central banks continue to tighten.

Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.