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Positive signs emerge as NAB’s Commercial Property Index climbs to a 4-year high with a notable pick up in confidence among property developers.

NAB’s Residential Property Index rises as stronger house price growth offsets falling rents. Sentiment is up in all states except WA which remains deeply negative. Foreign buyers are more active in NSW (1 in 5 new sales) and are now at similar levels to Victoria.

Sentiment in commercial property markets softened in Q4 after September’s promising gains. Retail sentiment (and to a lesser extent industrial) buck the trend, offset by falls in CBD hotels and office. Forward indicators are painting a mixed picture of the market.

NAB Residential Property Index falls as house price expectations pared back and rents weaken. Sentiment softer in all states (and still deeply negative in WA). Almost 10% of all property is being purchased by first home buyers as an “investment”.

Overall sentiment in Australian commercial property markets turns positive for the first time since early-2011, but WA continues to weaken. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said “NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose to +2 points in Q3, its first positive read since March 2011.”

NAB Residential Property Index unchanged with stronger house price expectations offset by weaker rental prospects. Sentiment continues to soften in WA (an all time low). Big pick-up in foreign buying activity in new property (especially VIC) and tipped to rise further.

NAB Commercial Property Index fell -3 to -6 points in Q2 and continues to track below business confidence. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said: “Sentiment was weaker in all market segments, except CBD hotels, and also negative in all states, especially in WA.”

Housing market sentiment falls as house price growth slows and rental pressures continue to weaken. Local investors step up and foreign buyers less prevalent.

NAB Commercial Property Index rises above long-term average, but overall still negative (-3 points) and below NAB Business Confidence. Sentiment stronger in all markets, except office (unchanged) and in all states (except NSW and WA). Forward expectations however softer.