NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – October 2018

• NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) in October (+0.7% mom s.a.) accelerated relative to September (0.3%). 12 months to growth slowed in October, with sales up 14.7% compared to September (16.7%). Trend online retail sales also slowed.
• ABS data on traditional retailers showed month on month seasonally adjusted sales rose (0.2%) in September, almost on par with NORSI in that month.
• Our revised estimate puts Australian online spend at around $28.5 billion over the 12 months to October 2018. This is equivalent to 9.0% of spending at traditional bricks & mortar retailers, as measured by the ABS in the 12 months to September 2018.
• Generally moderate slowing for seven of nine categories in October, with only two categories accelerating in 12-months to growth terms. Fastest 12-months-to growth was again recorded by games and toys stores, whose sales accelerated (55.5% October vs 51% 12 months to September), along with third fastest, fashion (15.2% vs 13%). Second fastest, grocery and liquor (19% vs 19.4%) slowed, as did every other category: Media (14.4% vs 19.9%), homewares and appliances (14.1% vs 16.4%), department stores (8.7% vs 10.2%), personal and recreational (7.1% vs 10%), food catering (6.2% vs 9.5%), and the smallest spend share, daily deals (5.7% vs 16.6%)
• SME merchants represent over 35% of all online sales. Seasonally adjusted SME sales accelerated more rapidly in October (1.9%, mom s.a.), relative to large online retailers.

For further details, please see the attached document:

NORSI OCT 2018