4 in 10 SMEs think AI will make their business more profitable.
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4 in 10 SMEs think AI will make their business more profitable.
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Conditions rise but confidence, orders remain low
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Conditions dip below average, price growth ticks up
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SME confidence negative as conditions soften
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Effects of monetary policy increasingly evident
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Business conditions cool as retail price growth slows
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Confidence slides but conditions still above average
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Confidence remains low despite healthy conditions
Growth holding up but subdued year ahead
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SME conditions improve but smallest firms still negative
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Labour costs rise as price inflation remains elevated
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Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity
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Employment index rises as resilience continues
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The impact on SMEs
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How big is the issue for SMEs?
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Conditions still above average despite warning signs.
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Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24
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SMEs see conditions weaken in Q2 as economy slows
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Supply issues easing but labour still hard to find
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Conditions still above average despite warning signs
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Worrying signs of a slowing in activity
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How big is the issue for SMEs?
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The impact on SMEs
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Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.
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How prevalent are attacks & scams & how are businesses & consumers responding?
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Little improvement in cost pressures for SMEs in Q1
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Constraints still tight but prices past their peak
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Conditions hold up, price pressures ease
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Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms
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Confidence volatile but conditions still strong
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New-year confidence boost as resilience continues
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Conditions eased for SMEs in late 2022.
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How big is the issue for SMEs & what are they doing to overcome these challenges?
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The impact on SMEs & how business is responding.
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Confidence down with constraints remaining tight
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Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed
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Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.
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The impacts on business & supporting local manufacturing to address them
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Conditions still strong but confidence weaker
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Easing conditions for small firms, despite strong demand
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Conditions holding up as constraints tighten
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COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere
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Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing
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No signs of slow down yet as strong conditions roll on.
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Confidence & conditions rally as economy strains capacity limits
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Confidence falls despite strong post-Omicron conditions.
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Strong conditions as inflationary pressure builds.
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The impact on business, and how SMEs believe supply chain issues can best be solved.
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How big an issue are they for SMEs, what are their expectations & how does business think they can be resolved?
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Business confidence falls further while conditions hold up.
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Confidence eases but conditions and outlook remain strong.
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It’s clear that with unemployment close to full employment levels and inflation way above target and forecast to rise higher, Australian interest rate settings should no longer be anywhere close to the emergency low settings implemented in the pandemic.
Conditions rise further on Recreation & Personal Services recovery.
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Omicron weighed on SME conditions and confidence in Q1.
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Conditions surge higher as costs, prices hit records.
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Confidence and conditions pull back but remain resilient.
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COVID disruptions have continued but State economies have been resilient and labour markets are strong.
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Activity, employment strengthen as prices push higher.
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SME businesses shared in post-Delta rebound
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Conditions deteriorate as Omicron peaks.
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Pre-Omicron economy was confident but facing constraints.
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Omicron dampens confidence, price pressures continue.
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Conditions stabilise as reopening progresses
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Conditions and confidence rise out of lockdown.
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SME conditions fall under lockdowns.
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Conditions and confidence hit by lockdowns in Q3.
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Confidence rebounds on the back of roadmaps, vaccination.
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Confidence and conditions tick up.
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Confidence and conditions fall further with ongoing lockdowns.
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Very strong SME business conditions in Q2.
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Conditions at a record high in Q2.
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Wages growth and expectations.
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Confidence falls on virus fears.
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A new phase of growth emerges across the states following a fast rebound.
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Business conditions continue to boom.
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Business confidence and conditions hit new highs.
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Confidence pulls back from record high, but conditions lift.
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Momentum builds.
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Business conditions reach a record high.
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Business conditions bounce, confidence rises further.
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While last year was one of the most challenging for schools in Australia’s history, schools will adapt post-COVID.
SME confidence hits a record high as conditions rebound
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Business confidence rises, while conditions pull back.
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The recovery continues.
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Business conditions improve to multi-year highs.
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Recovery from COVID-19 continues across Australia
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An improvement across the Survey – but some way to go.
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SME Conditions & Confidence better in Q3, but still weak.
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Latest restrictions will hit Victoria’s economy hard, but COVID-19 has impacted all states.
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Conditions continue to recover, but confidence remains fragile.
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The SME sector sees a large COVID hit.
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The impact of COVID-19 sees a large deterioration in conditions.
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Both business conditions and confidence continued to rebound in June – though it is important to note they are still weak in level terms.
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Business conditions saw a broad-based improvement in the month but remain deeply negative – at a level last seen coming out of the GFC.
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Business confidence remains very weak despite a rebound in the month.
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No state or territory will be spared from COVID-19 economic fall-out.
Business confidence saw its largest decline on record and is now at its weakest level in the history of the NAB Monthly Business Survey.
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SME confidence declines ahead of the COVID-19 disruption.
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Confidence deteriorates on the early impact of Covid-19.
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Confidence heads lower and Conditions now neutral.
Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.
SME conditions and confidence edge lower.
More of the same in early 2020.
Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.
The final monthly business survey of 2019 provides further evidence that activity stabilised in Q4.
Business conditions tracked sideways in the month, and appear to have stabilised at low levels, after declining significantly between mid-2018 and 2019.
Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.
Student wellbeing on the agenda for schools.
Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.
Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.
The Australian economy grew by 1.4% over the year to the June 2019, its weakest growth since 2009.
Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point – well below long-run averages.
We're seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month - business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don't point to an improvement in the near term.
Despite an up-tick in confidence, conditions deteriorate.
Conditions ease further, while confidence increases.
Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.
Confidence saw a post-election spike in May but conditions decline further with the private sector continuing to lose momentum.
Surprise jump in conditions last month was unwound this month – with business conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average.
Conditions ease further, confidence turns negative
Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.
Conditions continue to ease and confidence turns negative
Conditions rise while confidence continues a below average run.
Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.
Confidence and conditions continue to ease
Business conditions saw a moderate rebound in January after falling sharply in December.
Business conditions continued to ease in Q4 and while they remain above average, forward looking indicators point to potential further weakness.
Conditions end the year on a concerning low.
The latest NAB business survey shows further weakness in business conditions.
Total NAB customer spending grew 7.0% y/y in Q3 2018 - up from 5.6% in the previous quarter and 3.0% in the same quarter a year ago.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in October on a month-on-month basis, rebounding from a much weaker 0.2% in September.
Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks through the findings in the latest NAB Business Survey.
Confidence and conditions ease.
In seasonally adjusted terms, at 0.3%, online retail sales slowed in September. The 12 months to growth rate is also slower.
Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.
Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.
We shine a light on the ongoing innovation efforts of Australian business.
The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.
Online sales growth on par with June, faster over the year
Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.
Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.
Consumer anxiety up steeply in Q2. Overall spending tightens as concerns about the economy and our household financial positions grow. Spending on utilities a key expense, and growing.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.9% in July on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.5% in June.
The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.
In seasonally adjusted terms, at 1.2%, online retail sales slowed in June. The 12 months to growth rate is also a bit lower.
Business conditions ease slightly.
Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated in Q2. The Index fell 4 points to +17 but remains well above its long-term average (+3).
Favourable business conditions persist.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.5% in June on a month-on-month basis, following gain of 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%).
The business conditions index ticked up by 1pt to +15 index points in June, after easing in the previous month. The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) slowed slightly in May (+1.2% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in April (1.6%). 12 months to growth was also slower in May, with sales up 17.2% compared to April’s 12 month to growth of 18.4%. While slowing, trend online retail sales is still much stronger compared to the same period a year ago.
Business innovation levels rebound; leadership pivotal to growth.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in May on a month-on-month basis, following a flat read in April (revised from -0.6%).
The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.
Home ownership is a key to wellbeing according to new research from NAB
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) accelerated in April (+1.4% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in March(1.1%).
Total NAB customer spending grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 2018, up from 5.0% in the previous quarter and 2.0% compared to the same quarter a year ago.
Australians rate restaurants, movies and travel as the most positive experiences their money can buy, according to new research from NAB.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index was weaker in April, down 0.6% on a month on month basis in March.
In seasonally adjusted terms, at 0.9%, online retail sales accelerated in March. The 12 months to growth rate is however a bit slower.
Business conditions at record levels.
Total NAB customer spending accelerated to 5.0% y/y in Q4 2017, from 3.0% y/y in the previous quarter with spending growth up across all metropolitan and regional areas.
Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns & how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.
Business conditions strong and businesses have their say on tax.
Business conditions strong and businesses have their say on tax.
Overall sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) rose 4 points to +21 in Q1.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index grew 1.2% on a month on month basis in March – slower than January or February.
Business conditions come off the boil, but still hot.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) slowed in February (+0.8% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in January (1.6%).
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index continued to improve into February, a welcome trend after the weak sales experienced at the end of 2018.
The business conditions index moved 3pts higher to +21 index points. This is a record high since the monthly survey commenced in March 1997, although the same measure in NAB’s quarterly survey reached this level in 1994.
New research challenges old adage – can money buy happiness?
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) rebounded strongly in January (+1.5% mom s.a.) from a revised contraction (-1.8%) in December.
Accountants should be reassured that most SMEs view them as trustworthy. Yet, at the same time, they may wish to reconsider how they can better help their business clients. NAB’s inaugural Australian Accounting Industry Survey offers telling insights into what accountants are doing well – and where they could better respond to what their customers need and value.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows improvement in January following a weak December.
Strong improvement in SME business conditions in Q4 2017, while confidence retreated a touch.
Elevated business conditions & confidence point to a robust business sector in Australia at present.
The quarterly NAB Business Survey gives a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.
NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index* was basically unchanged in Q4 2017 at near survey lows with job security causing Australians the least stress, consistent with a strongly improving labour market.
In seasonally adjusted terms, at -2.2%, online retail sales contracted in December, the largest since November 2014. Looking through the month to month volatility, while the trend is still positive, it has again slowed.
Confidence lifted to narrow the divide with business conditions, indicating a strong business sector in Australia at present.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows a slowdown in December following a strong November.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) accelerated strongly in November(+4.7% mom s.a.).
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows strong growth in the month of November (1.6% mom).
Aussies’ wellbeing at its highest since 2013, but high anxiety still impacting one in four
Last month’s surprise spike in business conditions was more than unwound in November, although that was partly expected.
Last month’s surprise spike in business conditions was more than unwound in November, although that was partly expected.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) rebounded in October(+1.5% mom s.a.) from a contraction in September (-0.5%).
Spending growth slows but “experiences” continue to out-perform.
NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales reveals a continuation of very slow growth in recent months.
Business conditions hit an all new high in October.
Online sales contract in the month, also slower over the year.
Insights into the donating behaviours of Australian consumers
SME business conditions and confidence both improved in Q3.
Unemployment to head lower say labour market indicators.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a continuation of the very upbeat conditions for firms into the September quarter.
Overall sentiment in commercial property markets moderated for the second straight quarter, with NAB’s Commercial Property Index down 5 points to +18 in Q3, but still well above long-term average levels (+2).
NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales, the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index, reveals a rebound in spending in the month of September.
Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.
Balancing multiple objectives, as business remains strong and consumers cautious.
Business conditions are strong, but retail is still a significant concern.
Online sales accelerated over the year and month.
Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – their anxieties around future spending and savings plans, what drives these concerns and how they are impacting actual spending behaviours and financial hardship.
Consumers spending their disposable dollars on experiences
NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales, the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index, reveals a sharp decline in spending in the month of August.
Australia’s next phase of growth must be defined by ideas, creativity and execution. Our future lies in our ability to foster a culture of innovation. But how do we measure innovation across all sizes and types of business?
In Australia, the August NAB Monthly Business Survey showed some mixed results, but is still encouraging overall.
RBA to remove some emergency accommodation in 2018.
Business conditions are strong. Confidence takes a hit. Some signs of inflation pressure.
Online sales growing over the year, slight slowing in the month.
Skills shortage holding back Australian business.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index is a new product which provides timely proprietary data on a major part of retail spending in Australia.
No imminent return to “neutral”
Conditions continue their strong run, bolstering business confidence.
Online sales still growing, albeit slower over the month and year.
Millennial SME owners are far more focused on growth and digital platforms than other generations, according to a new report released by NAB. But can they handle the ongoing pressure of entrepreneurship?
SME business conditions eased in Q2 while leading indicators remained mixed.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster says that commercial property sentiment continues to vary widely by sector.
What character traits do you need to succeed as an SME today? Some results may surprise, according to a new report released by NAB.
The business sector continues to look upbeat, both with respect to current business activity – also evident in the NAB Monthly Business Survey – and importantly, the near-term outlook.
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index is a new product which provides timely proprietary data on a major part of retail spending in Australia.
While almost half of SMEs are set to expand in the coming years, they’re feeling the pressure of competition, according to a new report released by NAB.
Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.
Global upturn remains in place despite the risks.
Australian housing market sentiment (measured by NAB’s Residential Property Index) fell noticeably in the June quarter after climbing to a 3-year high in March.
Business conditions hit another multi-year high, with most industries performing well. Stronger trading conditions (sales) and profitability drove the improvement, while employment conditions were steady.
Australians reported a further improvement in the quality of their lives in the March quarter.
Online sales growing over the year, rebound in the month
Customer satisfaction, becoming a viable business and surviving tough economic conditions are the top three moments that matter for Australian SMEs, according to a new report released by NAB. And while almost half of SMEs are set to expand, they’re feeling some pressure.
Financial anxiety eases but 4 in 10 consumers still experienced some form of financial hardship in the last 3 months. Financial anxiety continues to be a bigger issue for young people (particularly women) and low income earners.
Business conditions remain elevated, but confidence pulled-back from multi-year highs.
Australian SMEs are confident of the future, with two thirds of millennial SMEs in particular set to expand their business over the next three years, according to a new NAB white paper released today.
NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index - which measures concerns about future spending and savings arising from job security, health, retirement, cost of living and government polices - fell to a survey low 55.9 points in Q1 2017 (58.7 in Q4 2016).
Labour market outlook to improve.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.
Online sales faster in the month but slower over the year.
Conditions were again strong in essential services including health, property, finance, transport and business services.
Sentiment in commercial property markets continues to vary widely across states.
Australians remain highly anxious. While having more money might solve some of our concerns, it would do little to solve some of the biggest detractors of wellbeing. But, it could help close the “wellbeing gap” between high and low income earners.
Results from the March NAB Monthly Business Survey point to an overall healthy economy that is gaining momentum, at least in the near-term.
Online sales slower over the year and month.
Foreign multinationals suggest quite good expectations for capital investment in the next 12 months
Business survey suggests solid near-term activity, despite easing from multi-year high.
Online sales slightly faster over the year, contracts in the month
Commercial property market sentiment has continued to build on the positive gains seen in our last survey. NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose 5 points to +21 in Q4 - its highest level since the Survey began in early-2010.
Low-tier SMEs’ business conditions now comparable to that of their mid-tier and high-tier counterparts
The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.
Digital economy opening new opportunities for successful careers.
Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.
By state, confidence has improved in VIC and QLD relative to the last survey, but this was offset by much weaker confidence in SA/NT and a small fall in NSW
According to the most recent surveys, business conditions and household sentiment are solid, and on an upwards trend.
Overall consumer anxiety eases a little more in Q4, but our spending behaviours are still yet to respond.
The impact of the win in the U.S. Presidential election by Mr Trump is at this stage highly uncertain
Business confidence has proven to be relatively resilient this year, but did moderate in October – falling 2 points to +4 index points (below the long-run average of +6).
Australian housing market sentiment improved in the third quarter of 2016, supported by more positive expectations for house price growth.
Innovation in independent schools led by doing things differently and cost efficiently.
The NAB SME Survey is the leading business survey of small businesses in Australia, and complements the comprehensive Quarterly NAB Business Survey.
The quarterly iteration of the NAB Business Survey provides additional valuable insight into Australian business than the regular NAB Monthly Business Survey. This publication offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business.
The outlook for the labour market is key. While we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain in its recent range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey still suggest solid levels of activity in the non-mining economy, but points to relatively patchy conditions at the industry level.
Consumer anxiety eases as concerns over jobs, the cost of living and government policy continue to moderate.
The results from this month’s survey remain broadly consistent with our prior view of the economy and the near-term outlook. It points to a patchy, but sustained, improvement in the non-mining economy, with the major services sectors and construction leading the way.
Australia’s wellbeing has fallen across all measures - life satisfaction, life worth, happiness and anxiety.
Business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey, with firms choosing to remain focussed on the positive trends within their own business.
The NAB SME Survey revealed very strong results across a wide range of indicators in Q2, suggesting that the non-mining recovery is broadening to include smaller businesses.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides valuable insight into Australian business, and offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.
The overall narrative of the Survey has not changed this month, even in light of recent disruptions to financial market sentiment.
Consumer anxiety has now fallen for each quarter over the past year, as Australians respond to sustained improvements in the labour market and recovery in the non-mining economy.
This month’s NAB Business Survey remains true to theme of ongoing recovery in the non-mining economy, building on the already solid growth seen in the recent National Accounts.
Firms continue to see a favourable business environment, despite pairing back some of the strong gains seen last month.
Business conditions unchanged at +3, slightly below the long-run average. Business confidence eased to the neutral mark in the March quarter.
The March quarter NAB Business Survey shows both a resilient non-mining recovery and an outlook that has continued to improve. Both business conditions and confidence remained at levels similar to that seen in the previous quarter.
NAB Business Survey suggests non-mining recovery is broadening, and bolstering confidence despite global uncertainties.
Consumer anxiety has now fallen for its third quarter in a row as recovery in the non-mining economy supports the labour market.
Improvement in business conditions adding to evidence of a buoyant non-mining recovery. Business confidence also resilient despite global uncertainty
Price developments over the past week supportive of NAB view that markets had become overly pessimistic on the growth outlook – commodities, equities and the $A all rally strongly; bond yields rise sharply.
Business conditions eased slightly to +3, slightly below the long-run average. Business confidence picked up to +3 in the December quarter.
Business confidence is sub-trend, but holding up reasonably well in the face of financial turmoil. Business conditions eased, but still consistent with non-mining recovery
Business outlook remains positive despite some pull back in the final quarter of 2015. Suggests global uncertainties continue to be the greatest risk.
Business confidence resilient to financial market turmoil (for now). Business conditions suggest non-mining recovery remains on track
The NAB Quarterly Australian Behaviour Survey (formerly NAB Consumer Anxiety Report) shows consumer anxiety falling again (and to its lowest level since Q4 2014), amid more signs of improvement in the labour market and non-mining segments of the economy.
Consistently above average business conditions are an encouraging sign that the apparent non-mining sector recovery continues to gain traction, despite relatively muted levels of business confidence.
Business conditions remain encouragingly robust, maintaining the solid gains obtained over the past year despite less than impressive levels of business confidence.
Business conditions among Australia’s ASX 300 firms rose to a new survey high of +20 points (up +12 from +8 points in the previous quarter). The gap between very big and small business is now at its widest margin since this survey began.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides a rich source of information about Australian business, their behaviours and the environment in which they operate. In addition to questions around sales, profitability, employment and the like, one focus of the Survey revolves around currency markets.
In the quarter, SME business conditions stayed unchanged at +4 index points. Within the components of business conditions, trading conditions were particularly strong, which flowed into modestly better profitability conditions. However, employment conditions remained subdued.
Leading indicators were generally more positive in Q3 2015. Forward orders jumped to their highest level since late 2009, while expectations for conditions in 3 and 12 months time both improved.
There was a partial recovery in business confidence in September as the Government’s leadership uncertainties were resolved, while financial market volatility and emerging market concerns have moderated from the heights of the previous month – although market concerns remain elevated.
Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009.
Business confidence rose sharply for ASX 300 firms in the June quarter (back to levels seen elsewhere in the economy) although conditions were broadly unchanged.
The business confidence index remains positive, both trading conditions and profitability remain relatively elevated and the trend has held up around average levels. Our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month, with growth of 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.
In the June quarter, SME quarterly business conditions and confidence rose rising by 2 points to +4 and +5 index points respectively. SME business conditions were superior in property, finance, business services, wholesale, manufacturing and transport sectors.
The June quarter NAB Business Survey confirms the trend of gradually improving near-term indicators, but with a somewhat patchy longer term outlook. Business confidence strengthened in Q2 to +4 index points (from 0 points), which is its highest level since Q3 2014…
Family relationships and safe communities critical to Aussies’ wellbeing. In an effort to better understand why Australians feel the way they do, NAB has been tracking Australia’s wellbeing (as measured by anxiety, life-satisfaction, happiness, and life-worth) since early-2013.
Business confidence lifted again in the month of June – the highest level since September 2013. Confidence is now positive in all industries except mining and business conditions improved even more, in June – the highest level since last October.
The recent Federal Budget and interest rate cut appears to have had a positive impact on business confidence – which moved up significantly in May - from +3 to +7 index points. This is the highest level of confidence since August 2014 and has helped to turn the trend more positive.
Business confidence was unchanged in April. Until confidence lifts significantly it is difficult to see a sustained economic recovery developing – to date rate cuts have not appeared to do much and it will be interesting to see what this week’s Federal Budget will do.
ASX 300 business confidence fell further in Q1 2015 to remain well below the general economy. Sentiment is particularly weak among very large construction firms. Business conditions while still positive also fell, with trading, profitability and employment all lower.
SMEs’ quarterly business conditions remained largely stable in the first quarter of 2015, with firms from all tiers showing broadly similar conditions from the previous quarter. SME trading and profitability conditions have deteriorated, offset by improved employment conditions overall.
Business confidence dropped back again in the first quarter of 2015, falling even further below the long run average level. This is consistent with a pull back in confidence in the February monthly survey, although this was completely unwound in March.
There were some tentative signs of improvement in the NAB Monthly Business Survey for March – with the post RBA cut fall in confidence reversed in March. Surprisingly, the lift was particularly pronounced in mining, although confidence is still lowest for this industry.
The RBA’s 25bp cut to interest rates in February did not appear to have the desired effect on firms ‘animal spirits’, with confidence actually deteriorating in the month. The index is now at its lowest level since before the Federal election in 2013 and is well below the long run average.
Big business in Australia is losing confidence, affecting medium-term growth and capital expenditure plans. Overall confidence among larger firms has now fallen below its long-term average and is weaker than for smaller companies and the broader economy.
After reaching the highest levels since 2009 in the September quarter, SMEs’ quarterly business conditions fell in the December quarter for the first time since Q4 2013. Firms from all tiers: low/micro, mid and high, showed consistent declines in their overall business conditions.
The latest survey shows that business confidence edged up a little, but it's still below long run averages. Confidence remains very weak in mining, consistent with lower commodity prices, but multi-year lows for the AUD likely contributed to a considerable improvement from last month.
Business confidence eased back in Q4, dropping below the long run average level. Sentiment and business conditions are generally consistent with a ‘patchwork’ economy. Outside of construction and services, conditions remain soft in all other industries.
The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell slightly to 63 points in Q4 2014 (63.8 in Q3). Wellbeing was rated lower for all questions, especially “not anxious yesterday” which fell to its lowest level since the survey started. Wellbeing rated highest in Queensland and lowest in Victoria.
The survey again shows a patchwork economy with little-to-no momentum building. In December, conditions eased for the second successive month after October’s surprisingly strong result so they're now a touch below the long run average.
Last months spike in business conditions was again short-lived, pulling back towards long run average levels in November. Despite the drop, the overall trend is still looking much better than 12-18 months prior, while levels of capacity utilisation have continued to improve.
Clearly the most surprising feature of the Survey was the sharp jump in business conditions in October (the largest monthly increase in the history of the survey). The improvement driven by sales and profits was relatively broad based –unlike the (short-lived) jump in July.
SME business confidence eased slightly, continuing the trend decline from the peaks seen around last year’s Federal election. While this result is consistent with the ongoing sluggishness of demand in the domestic economy (excluding exports)…
ASX 300 business confidence gained momentum in the September quarter, surpassing the broader economy. Conditions were broadly unchanged - trading and profitability were stronger, however the slight improvement was offset by deteriorating employment…
Business confidence was unchanged in Q3, remaining close to the long run average levels. However, our monthly survey shows that the momentum has turned, with confidence easing steadily over the quarter.
Recreation & personal services and finance/ property/ business services reported the most positive business conditions. Interest rate sensitive sectors performing well.
Business confidence lost ground in September –lowest level since pre election - in the face of a persistently soft operating environment for many firms. Forward orders remained soft, prompting de-stocking and competitive pricing which appears to have weighed on profitability.
The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index rose to 63.8 points in Q3 2014 (61.7 in Q2 2014). Wellbeing was rated higher for all measures, with the biggest improvements related to life satisfaction, worthwhile life and happiness.
Business confidence remains resilient despite easing a little in August, supported by positive forward orders, subdued cost pressures and more stable consumer confidence. Positive business conditions are also helping despite falling back in the month.
Business confidence again surprised on the upside, supported by better business conditions (largely reflecting sales and profits) and a surge in retailer confidence. Firms still unfazed about the Budget (for now). Conditions jumped to a four year high
Business confidence among Australia’s largest firms dropped significantly – from a position of above average confidence relative to the broader economy to marginally below. Businesses are reacting to the subdued domestic demand outlook.
SME business confidence eased again in the June quarter, but is holding up against heightened consumer anxiety with the support of positive sentiment in property and construction. Conditions rose slightly, but are still at levels suggesting sub-trend growth.
Australian wellbeing falls to its lowest level since the survey began. Anxiety is still the biggest detractor of overall wellbeing. A “wellbeing gap” has emerged between the highest and lowest income earners.
Business confidence eased a touch, but remains at relatively resilient levels post-budget. Business conditions improved marginally as underperforming industries improve. Forward indicators point to further modest improvement over coming months.
Consumer anxiety spikes post the Federal Government’s budget, with low income earners clearly most concerned. The NAB Consumer Anxiety Index rose to 64.5 points in Q2 (61.7 points in Q1) - its highest level since the survey began in Q1’13.
Business confidence recorded an unexpected increase in the month, with firms apparently shrugging off the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence that followed May’s Federal budget. Firms are sticking to their expectation for stronger activity despite business conditions remaining
Business confidence survived the government’s ‘tough budget’ intact, but business conditions eased again (reflecting sales). Employment and profits were steady at soft levels. Conditions are mixed across industries, but are generally negative outside of services
Business conditions more subdued in April but confidence up marginally – shrugging off ‘tough budget’ rhetoric. Sales eased slightly, employment slightly better but still soft, profits weaker. Conditions remain volatile and mixed across industries…
Business conditions for ASX 300 maintained momentum in the first quarter of 2014 - the broader economy weakened as it dipped back into negative territory. Confidence for larger firms surged to its highest level in the 3-year history of the survey.
SME business confidence eased for the first time in over a year – consistent with persistently soft conditions and trends seen by larger firms. Nevertheless, business activity has improved with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2010 – although still sub-trend.
Business confidence eased from its recent high but remained elevated in the March quarter. Business conditions were soft, but are now much better than 6-months earlier. Forward indicators point to further modest improvements over coming months.
Consumer anxiety rises as fears over job security continue to grow. The NAB Consumer Anxiety Index rose to 61.7 points in Q1 2014 (61.5 in Q4 2013). This was largely driven by heightened concerns over job security (mainly NSW/ACT).
National wellbeing improves after falling in the previous two quarters, but anxiety continues to rise with more than one-third of Australians currently “highly” anxious. The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index rose to 64.6 points in Q1 2014 (63.5 points in Q4 2013).
Recent recovery short lived? Business conditions back-pedalled sharply in February reversing around half post election gains. Confidence softened but still remains marginally above trend. Sales and employment fell markedly during the month, with the latter pointing to very weak labour
Business conditions for larger firms improved significantly in the December quarter – outperforming firms in the broader economy. However, confidence weakened slightly for larger firms – dropping below conditions and breaking away from the exuberance of the broader economy.
SME business confidence up for a fourth quarter – consistent with increases seen by larger firms. Confidence is finally gaining traction to support business activity, with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2011 – but remain soft.
Business conditions maintained last months momentum and is approaching 3 year highs while confidence was up for the first time in 4 months – both near or above trend levels. Employment index much better, but still suggests soft labour market conditions.
Business confidence in the December quarter was at its highest in more than 2½ years. Business conditions lifted to their highest level in more than 12 months suggesting activity is starting to catch up - albeit still below trend.
Are we at a turning point? Business conditions jump to more than 2½ year high, while confidence broadly unchanged – both now near trend levels. Sales and profits up sharply – especially in wholesale, transport and services – reducing excess capacity slightly.
Consumer anxiety rises amid ongoing weakness in the domestic economy. Consumer anxiety rose to 61.5 points in Q4 (61.1 in Q3). With the labour market softening, anxiety over job security has started climbing although it still rates as the lowest concern overall.
Business conditions and confidence broadly unchanged - with confidence still much higher than conditions. While still weak, business conditions appear to be trending higher. Trading conditions up - especially mining and manufacturing - with capacity utilisation off its recent lows.
Firms reassess their confidence on the outlook as business conditions undershoot again. Capacity utilisation falls sharply - especially in manufacturing, construction, mining and retail - despite low interest rates and improved housing and equity markets.
Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.
SME business confidence broadly unchanged – with no sign of the political kick in confidence seen elsewhere in business. That may in part reflect a significant fall in business conditions in the quarter. SME performance in poor sectors of the economy were similar to larger firms.
Businesses become more confident in the September quarter. This fundamentally appears to be driven by political factors – albeit the lower AUD and rates, together with stronger asset markets would have helped.
The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell to 6.4 points in Q3, with a big increase in anxiety in WA a key contributor to lower national wellbeing. Consumer anxiety rose to 6.1 points in Q3, underpinned by rising concerns around cost of living, ability to fund retirement and health.
Animal spirits lift again. Confidence surges to its highest level in 3½ years. Business conditions, however, still subdued - with employment poor. Signs of better conditions in finance/ business/ property and construction.
Confidence rises everywhere and surges in mining, construction and finance/ business/ property. This appears to reflect expectations of political change & more certainty about future political frameworks. Against that, business conditions and capacity utilisation remained poor.
Business conditions remain at 4 year lows while confidence slumps to 8 month low - despite a falling AUD and lower interest rates. Conditions very poor in manufacturing, construction, mining, retail and wholesale; WA now the weakest state.
SME confidence & conditions improve significantly with activity of smaller firms outperforming larger firms for the first time in almost four years. SME conditions strengthened across most industries.
Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.
Business conditions struggle in the June quarter and confidence falls back, driven by a pessimistic mining sector. Falling equities and offshore concerns likely to be weighing on sentiment. Little sign yet that lower interest rates and AUD are helping.
Business conditions and capacity utilisation slump to a four year low. Confidence a little better but still below trend. Conditions very bad in retail, mining and manufacturing, despite low interest rates and falling AUD, though signs a little better for exports.
Australian wellbeing improved in the June quarter despite softening economic conditions. NAB's Australian Wellbeing Index measured 6.6 points, up from 6.2 points in the March quarter. Consumer anxiety fell in the quarter in line with moderating concerns about future spending/savings plans.
Business conditions remain at low levels (marginally higher) with unchanged mediocre confidence levels. Conditions better in wholesale, manufacturing and construction, but mining worsens. Any confidence gained from falling dollar and May rate cut have been undermined by domestic weakness
Business conditions remain very difficult and confidence stumbles after showing signs of recovery earlier this year. Despite less negativity in retail & manufacturing, activity still very poor and labour market showing new signs of weakness.
ASX 300 show greater resilience than the broader economy in Q1, with conditions stable. Finance, Business & Property considerably stronger. Confidence rebounded but weaker forward orders & stocks point to potential softness in the next quarter.
SME confidence & conditions edge higher in March quarter but still near post-GFC lows; SMEs more pessimistic than larger firms and activity also more subdued. Capacity utilisation falls to lowest level in history, despite tick up in forward orders. Signs lower borrowing rates are helping…
Business confidence lifts from late 2012 lows but still below average. That reflects better global confidence, stronger equity prices and lower borrowing rates at home. Conditions still subdued and with marked weakness in trade and consumer dependent sectors. Forward indicators …
Business conditions fall to weakest level in almost four years but confidence steady. Previous surge in activity in consumer sectors retail & manufacturing unwinds, with signs lower interest rates need more time to fully work through economy.
Business conditions & confidence both edge down in February. High AUD hurting manufacturing and lack of non-mining demand weighing on most sectors. Large falls in orders, poor capacity use, and weak capex plans (esp. mining) don’t augur well for near-term (weak) domestic demand.
SME confidence & conditions weaken a touch in Q4 and poor relative to history; sentiment and activity of SMEs a touch weaker than their larger counterparts. Forward indicators remain subdued implying little upturn in near-term activity. Weakness in manufacturing, retail, wholesale and ….
Business confidence hangs on to gains made last month on reduced global fears. Business conditions improve a touch, but still poor. Signs that previously stronger industries are being dragged down by weakness elsewhere. Capacity utilisation now lowest since 2001 and forward orders remain …
Business conditions weaken to lowest level since June quarter 2009; weakness very apparent in construction, manufacturing and now mining. Forward indicators worsen. Confidence edges lower and very subdued – especially in mining. Medium-term expectations poor and capex lower again.
Business confidence posts a sharp jump in December, but not so activity and forward indicators, which remain poor - particularly wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction. Better external sentiment (temporary avoidance of the US ‘fiscal cliff’), strengthening in Chinese data
The brakes have firmly tightened on activity in November; business conditions very weak in construction, retail, manufacturing and wholesale. Signs of trouble ahead with confidence slumping to lowest level since April 2009, with little hint of a pre-Christmas revival
Business conditions stumble to weakest level in more than three years, with wholesale and manufacturing conditions especially subdued. Confidence also edges lower. Activity forecasts unchanged but 25bp February rate cut on the cards, providing modest Q4 CPI.
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. It aims to share business insights and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter.
SME confidence and conditions better in Q3 but still below average; sentiment of SMEs now in line with their larger counterparts but activity, capacity utilisation and new orders continue to under perform. Strength in recreation & personal services and transport a consistent theme
Business conditions improve in the quarter but still soft. However, Monthly survey results suggest conditions weakened towards the end of the quarter. Forward indicators remain very weak. Confidence up a touch but still at downbeat levels – especially mining
Conditions recover and businesses take comfort from better sales, a lower AUD and talk of interest rate cuts. Global uncertainty still weighing on near-term activity indicators. Business conditions improved in September, after edging down over the previous two months, with the outcome suggesting that the Australian economy may be stabilising. However, there are still signs […]
Business confidence recovers modestly but still down beat – especially mining. Business conditions disappoint – with struggling retail and wholesale falling significantly. Forward orders noticeably weaker and capacity utilisation trending down - indicative of weakening demand.
Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions improve on the back of strengthening trading and profitability – especially in interest sensitive sectors. But confidence falls […]
Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions worsen in the face of poor trading and profits, with weakness particularly evident in retail and wholesale – […]
Business conditions improve slightly but overall activity remains soft; forward orders and employment conditions imply weak near-term demand. Confidence falls marginally, implying little relief from RBA rate cuts; European uncertainty and new taxes may be weighing on sentiment. Government handouts provide some respite to consumer dependant sectors but benefits may be short-lived – time will […]
Retail drives ASX 300 business conditions lower in Q2, with a weaker trend tipped for Q3. Business conditions deteriorated across the economy in the second quarter of 2012, with declines recorded among firms in both the ASX 300 survey and the broader Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). ASX 300 firms recorded a net balance of 0 […]
The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence & conditions deteriorate further. Weakness in small firms increasingly pronounced compared to their larger counterparts – weakness in manufacturing, retail and construction a persistent theme across all small firm […]
Business conditions weaken; forward orders and other indicators of near-term demand still soft. Confidence slips further, with heightened European uncertainty seemingly outweighing relief provided from RBA rate cuts – new taxes may also be weighing on sentiment. Business conditions weakened in the June quarter, following modestly better activity over recent quarters. Official ABS data suggest […]
Business conditions now the weakest in three years: mining and construction down sharply. Confidence falters on global Greek exit fears, weak orders and negative reaction to the May Budget. Indicators of demand imply softer near-term activity and more jobs shedding in weak sectors. RBA to cut again in coming months. Business confidence deteriorated sharply in […]
Businesses remain confident of better near-term activity but actual conditions weaken in April – with multi-speed element widening again. Forward indicators remain lacklustre, with a material decline in capacity utilisation signalling increased slack in the economy – and further weakness in the labour market ahead. More rate action to come, although how much depends on […]
The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions edge higher but lack of jobs growth likely to keep near-term activity fairly soft. Confidence slips back and remains below trend. Forward […]
Confidence and conditions grind higher but with little jobs growth. Forward indicators marginally improve but remain subdued. Multi speed economy still to the fore – with non mining edging up a touch. Domestic forecasts edge lower with unemployment up. Rates view unchanged. Businesses appeared slightly more confident about near-term activity in March than in February, […]
The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Seasonal adjustment of SME survey results SME survey data reported in the March 2012 NAB Quarterly SME Business Survey have been seasonally adjusted for the first time in the history of […]
Confidence retreats while conditions edge higher. Forward indicators remain weak. Retail, manufacturing and construction still struggling while services, transport and mining strong. Growth lowered locally. Businesses appeared less confident about near-term activity in February than in January. While overall confidence remained positive, uncertainty emanating from the euro-zone and financial markets, the persistent strength in the […]
Confidence and conditions a touch better but economy still marking time. Sectors remain wide apart. Inflation weakening as retailers increase discounts and one more rate cut possible. Overall business confidence was relatively firm in the month, with businesses seemingly still taking relief from the recent RBA rate cuts as well some abatement of concerns about […]
The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Despite better business conditions and improved confidence, survey still only suggestive of an economy growing at around trend. Forward indicators slightly better, implying a […]
Confidence up a touch in December, despite global economic worries. Conditions consistent with an economy going sideways – but multi- speed. GDP forecasts lowered & two rate cuts now expected in 2012. Business confidence strengthened a little in December, although it remained below the series long-run average. Business sentiment over recent months has been seemingly […]
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Strong rebound in business confidence for ASX300 firms – exceeding the broader economy; business conditions record […]
The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence and conditions rebound but still below levels of their larger counterparts. Low tier (smallest) SMEs struggle. SME firms reported improved confidence in the December quarter – especially compared to […]
Conditions improve slightly in November and are consistent with an economy growing around trend. Services sectors (ex. finance) and retail doing better. Confidence overall relatively stable – despite European concerns. GDP revised up on mining & consumer strength. Business conditions edged higher in November, after softening a little in the previous month, and are consistent […]
Conditions soften in October, suggesting growth in the economy is treading water. But, for the second month in a row, confidence has improved. Also tentative signs of Qld re-construction kicking in. Business conditions softened in October, partly unwinding an improvement in conditions in the previous month, with trend conditions suggestive of an economy that is […]
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey is the most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions slump and confidence falters mid-quarter, but monthly profile points to subsequent improving trend. Hours worked strengthens […]
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Business conditions for ASX300 declined further in Q3 – driven by manufacturing – narrowing the gap […]
The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Subdued SME conditions persist and confidence falls further. Business confidence of SMEs fell heavily in the September quarter, consolidating a sharp decline in the June quarter and consistent with the deterioration […]
Global jitters jolt confidence. But could have been worse given global turmoil. Business conditions only a touch weaker – but with further restructuring evident in a widening of the multi-speed economy. Business confidence dropped sharply in August, with heightened global uncertainty, large falls in equity markets and the fear of debt market contagion. Confidence deteriorated […]
Business conditions weaken showing an economy continuing to lose momentum and traveling below trend. Confidence remains subdued in the face of continuing uncertainty – but carbon didn’t appear to cause further retreat. Growth in the domestic economy weakening in July, with business conditions now indicative of below-trend growth. This weakening trend was broad based – […]
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