BUSINESS SURVEY

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

The latest NAB business survey shows further weakness in business conditions.

Total NAB customer spending grew 7.0% y/y in Q3 2018 – up from 5.6% in the previous quarter and 3.0% in the same quarter a year ago.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in October on a month-on-month basis, rebounding from a much weaker 0.2% in September.

Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks through the findings in the latest NAB Business Survey.

In seasonally adjusted terms, at 0.3%, online retail sales slowed in September. The 12 months to growth rate is also slower.

Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.

Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.

We shine a light on the ongoing innovation efforts of Australian business.

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

Online sales growth on par with June, faster over the year

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.

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