INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.

We shine a light on the ongoing innovation efforts of Australian business.

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

Online sales growth on par with June, faster over the year

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.

Consumer anxiety up steeply in Q2. Overall spending tightens as concerns about the economy and our household financial positions grow. Spending on utilities a key expense, and growing.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.9% in July on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.5% in June.

The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.

In seasonally adjusted terms, at 1.2%, online retail sales slowed in June. The 12 months to growth rate is also a bit lower.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated in Q2. The Index fell 4 points to +17 but remains well above its long-term average (+3).

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