Business Research & Insights

Labour costs rise as price inflation remains elevated

Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity

Employment index rises as resilience continues

The impact on SMEs

How big is the issue for SMEs?

Conditions still above average despite warning signs.

Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24

SMEs see conditions weaken in Q2 as economy slows

Supply issues easing but labour still hard to find

Conditions still above average despite warning signs

Worrying signs of a slowing in activity

How big is the issue for SMEs?

The impact on SMEs

Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.

How prevalent are attacks & scams & how are businesses & consumers responding?

Little improvement in cost pressures for SMEs in Q1

Constraints still tight but prices past their peak

Conditions hold up, price pressures ease

Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms

Confidence volatile but conditions still strong

New-year confidence boost as resilience continues

Conditions eased for SMEs in late 2022.

How big is the issue for SMEs & what are they doing to overcome these challenges?

The impact on SMEs & how business is responding.

Confidence down with constraints remaining tight

Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed

Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.

The impacts on business & supporting local manufacturing to address them

Conditions still strong but confidence weaker

Easing conditions for small firms, despite strong demand

Conditions holding up as constraints tighten

COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere

Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing

No signs of slow down yet as strong conditions roll on.

Confidence & conditions rally as economy strains capacity limits

Confidence falls despite strong post-Omicron conditions.

Strong conditions as inflationary pressure builds.

The impact on business, and how SMEs believe supply chain issues can best be solved.

How big an issue are they for SMEs, what are their expectations & how does business think they can be resolved?

Business confidence falls further while conditions hold up.

Confidence eases but conditions and outlook remain strong.

It’s clear that with unemployment close to full employment levels and inflation way above target and forecast to rise higher, Australian interest rate settings should no longer be anywhere close to the emergency low settings implemented in the pandemic.

Conditions rise further on Recreation & Personal Services recovery.

Omicron weighed on SME conditions and confidence in Q1.

Conditions surge higher as costs, prices hit records.

Confidence and conditions pull back but remain resilient.

COVID disruptions have continued but State economies have been resilient and labour markets are strong.

Activity, employment strengthen as prices push higher.

SME businesses shared in post-Delta rebound

Conditions deteriorate as Omicron peaks.

Pre-Omicron economy was confident but facing constraints.

Omicron dampens confidence, price pressures continue.

Conditions stabilise as reopening progresses

Conditions and confidence rise out of lockdown.

SME conditions fall under lockdowns.

Conditions and confidence hit by lockdowns in Q3.

Confidence rebounds on the back of roadmaps, vaccination.

Confidence and conditions tick up.

Confidence and conditions fall further with ongoing lockdowns.

Very strong SME business conditions in Q2.

Conditions at a record high in Q2.

Wages growth and expectations.

Confidence falls on virus fears.

A new phase of growth emerges across the states following a fast rebound.

Business conditions continue to boom.

Business confidence and conditions hit new highs.

Confidence pulls back from record high, but conditions lift.

Momentum builds.

Business conditions reach a record high.

Business conditions bounce, confidence rises further.

While last year was one of the most challenging for schools in Australia’s history, schools will adapt post-COVID.

SME confidence hits a record high as conditions rebound

Business confidence rises, while conditions pull back.

The recovery continues.

Business conditions improve to multi-year highs.

Recovery from COVID-19 continues across Australia

An improvement across the Survey – but some way to go.

SME Conditions & Confidence better in Q3, but still weak.

Latest restrictions will hit Victoria’s economy hard, but COVID-19 has impacted all states.

Conditions continue to recover, but confidence remains fragile.

The SME sector sees a large COVID hit.

The impact of COVID-19 sees a large deterioration in conditions.

Both business conditions and confidence continued to rebound in June – though it is important to note they are still weak in level terms.

Business conditions saw a broad-based improvement in the month but remain deeply negative – at a level last seen coming out of the GFC.

Business confidence remains very weak despite a rebound in the month.

No state or territory will be spared from COVID-19 economic fall-out.

Business confidence saw its largest decline on record and is now at its weakest level in the history of the NAB Monthly Business Survey.

SME confidence declines ahead of the COVID-19 disruption.

Confidence deteriorates on the early impact of Covid-19.

Confidence heads lower and Conditions now neutral.

Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.

SME conditions and confidence edge lower.

More of the same in early 2020.

Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.

The final monthly business survey of 2019 provides further evidence that activity stabilised in Q4.

Business conditions tracked sideways in the month, and appear to have stabilised at low levels, after declining significantly between mid-2018 and 2019.

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

Student wellbeing on the agenda for schools.

Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.

Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.

The Australian economy grew by 1.4% over the year to the June 2019, its weakest growth since 2009.

Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point – well below long-run averages.

We're seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month - business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don't point to an improvement in the near term.

Despite an up-tick in confidence, conditions deteriorate.

Conditions ease further, while confidence increases.

Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.

Confidence saw a post-election spike in May but conditions decline further with the private sector continuing to lose momentum.

Surprise jump in conditions last month was unwound this month – with business conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average.

Conditions ease further, confidence turns negative

Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.

Conditions continue to ease and confidence turns negative

Conditions rise while confidence continues a below average run.

Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.

Confidence and conditions continue to ease

Business conditions saw a moderate rebound in January after falling sharply in December.

Business conditions continued to ease in Q4 and while they remain above average, forward looking indicators point to potential further weakness.

Conditions end the year on a concerning low.

The latest NAB business survey shows further weakness in business conditions.

Total NAB customer spending grew 7.0% y/y in Q3 2018 - up from 5.6% in the previous quarter and 3.0% in the same quarter a year ago.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in October on a month-on-month basis, rebounding from a much weaker 0.2% in September.

Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks through the findings in the latest NAB Business Survey.

Confidence and conditions ease.

In seasonally adjusted terms, at 0.3%, online retail sales slowed in September. The 12 months to growth rate is also slower.

Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.

Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.

We shine a light on the ongoing innovation efforts of Australian business.

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

Online sales growth on par with June, faster over the year

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.

Consumer anxiety up steeply in Q2. Overall spending tightens as concerns about the economy and our household financial positions grow. Spending on utilities a key expense, and growing.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.9% in July on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.5% in June.

The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.

In seasonally adjusted terms, at 1.2%, online retail sales slowed in June. The 12 months to growth rate is also a bit lower.

Business conditions ease slightly.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated in Q2. The Index fell 4 points to +17 but remains well above its long-term average (+3).

Favourable business conditions persist.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.5% in June on a month-on-month basis, following gain of 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%).

The business conditions index ticked up by 1pt to +15 index points in June, after easing in the previous month. The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) slowed slightly in May (+1.2% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in April (1.6%). 12 months to growth was also slower in May, with sales up 17.2% compared to April’s 12 month to growth of 18.4%. While slowing, trend online retail sales is still much stronger compared to the same period a year ago.

Business innovation levels rebound; leadership pivotal to growth.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in May on a month-on-month basis, following a flat read in April (revised from -0.6%).

The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

Home ownership is a key to wellbeing according to new research from NAB

NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) accelerated in April (+1.4% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in March(1.1%).

Total NAB customer spending grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 2018, up from 5.0% in the previous quarter and 2.0% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Australians rate restaurants, movies and travel as the most positive experiences their money can buy, according to new research from NAB.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index was weaker in April, down 0.6% on a month on month basis in March.

In seasonally adjusted terms, at 0.9%, online retail sales accelerated in March. The 12 months to growth rate is however a bit slower.

Business conditions at record levels.

Total NAB customer spending accelerated to 5.0% y/y in Q4 2017, from 3.0% y/y in the previous quarter with spending growth up across all metropolitan and regional areas.

Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns & how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

Business conditions strong and businesses have their say on tax.

Business conditions strong and businesses have their say on tax.

Overall sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) rose 4 points to +21 in Q1.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index grew 1.2% on a month on month basis in March – slower than January or February.

Business conditions come off the boil, but still hot.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) slowed in February  (+0.8% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in January (1.6%).

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index continued to improve into February, a welcome trend after the weak sales experienced at the end of 2018.

The business conditions index moved 3pts higher to +21 index points. This is a record high since the monthly survey commenced in March 1997, although the same measure in NAB’s quarterly survey reached this level in 1994.

New research challenges old adage – can money buy happiness?

NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) rebounded strongly in January (+1.5% mom s.a.) from a revised contraction (-1.8%) in December.

Accountants should be reassured that most SMEs view them as trustworthy. Yet, at the same time, they may wish to reconsider how they can better help their business clients. NAB’s inaugural Australian Accounting Industry Survey offers telling insights into what accountants are doing well – and where they could better respond to what their customers need and value.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows improvement in January following a weak December.

Strong improvement in SME business conditions in Q4 2017, while confidence retreated a touch.

Elevated business conditions & confidence point to a robust business sector in Australia at present.

The quarterly NAB Business Survey gives a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.

NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index* was basically unchanged in Q4 2017 at near survey lows with job security causing Australians the least stress, consistent with a strongly improving labour market.

In seasonally adjusted terms, at -2.2%, online retail sales contracted in December, the largest since November 2014. Looking through the month to month volatility, while the trend is still positive, it has again slowed.

Confidence lifted to narrow the divide with business conditions, indicating a strong business sector in Australia at present.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows a slowdown in December following a strong November.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) accelerated strongly in November(+4.7% mom s.a.).

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows strong growth in the month of November (1.6% mom).

Aussies’ wellbeing at its highest since 2013, but high anxiety still impacting one in four

Last month’s surprise spike in business conditions was more than unwound in November, although that was partly expected.

Last month’s surprise spike in business conditions was more than unwound in November, although that was partly expected.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) rebounded in October(+1.5% mom s.a.) from a contraction in September (-0.5%).

Spending growth slows but “experiences” continue to out-perform.

NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales reveals a continuation of very slow growth in recent months.

Business conditions hit an all new high in October.

Online sales contract in the month, also slower over the year.

Insights into the donating behaviours of Australian consumers

SME business conditions and confidence both improved in Q3.

Unemployment to head lower say labour market indicators.

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a continuation of the very upbeat conditions for firms into the September quarter.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets moderated for the second straight quarter, with NAB’s Commercial Property Index down 5 points to +18 in Q3, but still well above long-term average levels (+2).

NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales, the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index, reveals a rebound in spending in the month of September.

Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.

Balancing multiple objectives, as business remains strong and consumers cautious.

Business conditions are strong, but retail is still a significant concern.

Online sales accelerated over the year and month.

Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – their anxieties around future spending and savings plans, what drives these concerns and how they are impacting actual spending behaviours and financial hardship.

Consumers spending their disposable dollars on experiences

NAB’s proprietary indicator of Australian retail sales, the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index, reveals a sharp decline in spending in the month of August.

Australia’s next phase of growth must be defined by ideas, creativity and execution. Our future lies in our ability to foster a culture of innovation. But how do we measure innovation across all sizes and types of business?

In Australia, the August NAB Monthly Business Survey showed some mixed results, but is still encouraging overall.

RBA to remove some emergency accommodation in 2018.

Business conditions are strong. Confidence takes a hit. Some signs of inflation pressure.

Online sales growing over the year, slight slowing in the month.

Skills shortage holding back Australian business.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index is a new product which provides timely proprietary data on a major part of retail spending in Australia.

No imminent return to “neutral”

Conditions continue their strong run, bolstering business confidence.

Online sales still growing, albeit slower over the month and year.

Millennial SME owners are far more focused on growth and digital platforms than other generations, according to a new report released by NAB. But can they handle the ongoing pressure of entrepreneurship?

SME business conditions eased in Q2 while leading indicators remained mixed.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster says that commercial property sentiment continues to vary widely by sector.

What character traits do you need to succeed as an SME today? Some results may surprise, according to a new report released by NAB.

The business sector continues to look upbeat, both with respect to current business activity – also evident in the NAB Monthly Business Survey – and importantly, the near-term outlook.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index is a new product which provides timely proprietary data on a major part of retail spending in Australia.

While almost half of SMEs are set to expand in the coming years, they’re feeling the pressure of competition, according to a new report released by NAB.

Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.

Global upturn remains in place despite the risks.

Australian housing market sentiment (measured by NAB’s Residential Property Index) fell noticeably in the June quarter after climbing to a 3-year high in March.

Business conditions hit another multi-year high, with most industries performing well. Stronger trading conditions (sales) and profitability drove the improvement, while employment conditions were steady.

Australians reported a further improvement in the quality of their lives in the March quarter.

Online sales growing over the year, rebound in the month

Customer satisfaction, becoming a viable business and surviving tough economic conditions are the top three moments that matter for Australian SMEs, according to a new report released by NAB. And while almost half of SMEs are set to expand, they’re feeling some pressure.

Financial anxiety eases but 4 in 10 consumers still experienced some form of financial hardship in the last 3 months. Financial anxiety continues to be a bigger issue for young people (particularly women) and low income earners.

Business conditions remain elevated, but confidence pulled-back from multi-year highs.

Australian SMEs are confident of the future, with two thirds of millennial SMEs in particular set to expand their business over the next three years, according to a new NAB white paper released today.

NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index - which measures concerns about future spending and savings arising from job security, health, retirement, cost of living and government polices - fell to a survey low 55.9 points in Q1 2017 (58.7 in Q4 2016).

Labour market outlook to improve.

The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.

Online sales faster in the month but slower over the year.

Conditions were again strong in essential services including health, property, finance, transport and business services.

Sentiment in commercial property markets continues to vary widely across states.

Australians remain highly anxious. While having more money might solve some of our concerns, it would do little to solve some of the biggest detractors of wellbeing. But, it could help close the “wellbeing gap” between high and low income earners.

Results from the March NAB Monthly Business Survey point to an overall healthy economy that is gaining momentum, at least in the near-term.

Online sales slower over the year and month.

Foreign multinationals suggest quite good expectations for capital investment in the next 12 months

Business survey suggests solid near-term activity, despite easing from multi-year high.

Online sales slightly faster over the year, contracts in the month

Commercial property market sentiment has continued to build on the positive gains seen in our last survey. NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose 5 points to +21 in Q4 - its highest level since the Survey began in early-2010.

Low-tier SMEs’ business conditions now comparable to that of their mid-tier and high-tier counterparts

The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.

Digital economy opening new opportunities for successful careers.

Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.

By state, confidence has improved in VIC and QLD relative to the last survey, but this was offset by much weaker confidence in SA/NT and a small fall in NSW

According to the most recent surveys, business conditions and household sentiment are solid, and on an upwards trend.

Overall consumer anxiety eases a little more in Q4, but our spending behaviours are still yet to respond.

The impact of the win in the U.S. Presidential election by Mr Trump is at this stage highly uncertain

Business confidence has proven to be relatively resilient this year, but did moderate in October – falling 2 points to +4 index points (below the long-run average of +6).

Australian housing market sentiment improved in the third quarter of 2016, supported by more positive expectations for house price growth.

Innovation in independent schools led by doing things differently and cost efficiently.

The NAB SME Survey is the leading business survey of small businesses in Australia, and complements the comprehensive Quarterly NAB Business Survey.

The quarterly iteration of the NAB Business Survey provides additional valuable insight into Australian business than the regular NAB Monthly Business Survey. This publication offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business.

The outlook for the labour market is key. While we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain in its recent range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.