Business Research & Insights

Job switching & intentions, employee satisfaction, working from home & perceptions of collaboration & productivity.

Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity

Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience

Employment index rises as resilience continues

Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left

Our monthly transaction data showed a surprisingly positive result for July, with spending still holding up.

Conditions still above average despite warning signs.

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives

Supply issues easing but labour still hard to find

A slow second half, but persistent inflation

Our monthly transaction data showed a broadly flat result for June, with a lift in hospitality spending but a fall in retail.

Conditions still above average despite warning signs

4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather

Fed pauses in June, but another hike is likely

Our monthly transaction data showed a small rise in spending in May (in seasonally adjusted terms), driven by discretionary spending.

Worrying signs of a slowing in activity

A soft start to 2023

Activity – and inflation – resilience continues

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response

Our monthly transaction data showed another small fall in spending in April (in seasonally adjusted terms), largely driven by discretionary services categories.

Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.

Q1 GDP slowdown driven by inventories

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Constraints still tight but prices past their peak

Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge

Our monthly transaction data suggests spending turned a corner in March with total spending declining, after holding up through more than a year of high inflation and rising interest rates.

Conditions hold up, price pressures ease

Australia passing through a possible turning point

Fed caught between strong data & bank panic

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending was broadly flat in February.

Confidence volatile but conditions still strong

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Growth slows as consumption softens

Rising rates to see slower growth ahead

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending picked back up in January after a small fall in December, with strength across most spending categories.

New-year confidence boost as resilience continues

January data surprise = higher fed funds rate

Confidence down with constraints remaining tight

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending softened in December after a solid rise in November.

Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed

Q4 GDP looks solid but weakness emerging

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.

Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3

Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.

Domestic demand solid early in Q4

Post-COVID normalisation continues.

Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.

Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.

Conditions still strong but confidence weaker

Q3 GDP – economy growing again (for now).

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Market sentiment: is it a good time to buy, sell, renovate & other property intentions

Conditions holding up as constraints tighten

Our new monthly consumer spending analysis shows spending has remained strong over recent months, supported by rebounding hospitality spending and discretionary spending on travel and other activities.

Near term resilience but a slowing ahead

Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing

Recession risk – Q3 breather likely temporary

NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data to 10 September shows unexpected strength over the last two weeks.

Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.

No signs of slow down yet as strong conditions roll on.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

A solid result ahead of a slower H2 2022

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the weakening trend of the past few months continues, albeit from a very high base.

Labour market still very tight despite GDP fall

The “Great Resignation”, Working from Home & Returning to the Office

NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the moderation in spending growth continues post-EOFY peak, albeit from elevated levels.

Rebound set to fade as consumption slows in H2 2022

Confidence & conditions rally as economy strains capacity limits

While consumption has outperformed in the pandemic era – notwithstanding significant differences between sectors – gravity now appears to be catching up.

GDP falls again in Q2

While the new financial year has seen lower spending, the trend shows a very moderate decline.

Strong conditions as inflationary pressure builds.

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

This article first appeared in the Australian Financial Review. By James Dunn.

This article first appeared in the Australian Financial Review. By Alexandra Cain.

Interest rates & inflation to weigh on the consumer.

Business confidence falls further while conditions hold up.

Consumers spending big on EOFY sales.

Our latest weekly consumer tracking data shows something of a mixed picture.

The Fed tightens the screws.

Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 11 June shows ongoing signs of deterioration, albeit from elevated levels earlier this year.

Higher inflation, higher rates & slower growth ahead.

Confidence eases but conditions and outlook remain strong.

Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 28 May was broadly solid, although there are signs of softening from highs earlier this year.

A solid result despite virus disruptions early in the year.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Revising down US growth forecasts.

Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 14 May was broadly quite encouraging.

Australia’s wellbeing falls, but the gap by income now at its narrowest in almost 3 years. Wellbeing diverging across the country, highest in TAS & lowest in WA. Home ownership a significant differentiator. Household financial stress up slightly but falling for low income earners & rising sharply for those on higher incomes. The share of Australians experiencing some form of financial hardship now at a survey low.

Rates to rise further as strong growth continues

Conditions rise further on Recreation & Personal Services recovery.

Even with GDP falling in Q1, the Fed is set to move faster.

Rate rises set for June as strong growth continues.

Conditions surge higher as costs, prices hit records.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

The changing workplace - attitudes to jobs, working from home & barriers to returning to the office.

Data softer than previous week, although up from early March.

Confidence and conditions pull back but remain resilient.

Fed lifts rates – more to come.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Overall, 2022 continues to outperform 2021 and even pre-pandemic 2019.

Unemployment to fall below 4%; inflation risks build.

Activity, employment strengthen as prices push higher.

Overall, February saw strong gains for hospitality, with surging spending on bars, restaurants, pubs and accommodation, despite ongoing COVID circulation.

Wellbeing rose in Q4 to levels last seen before the pandemic & household financial stress remains well below the survey average.

A strong rebound in activity as lockdowns end.

Solid start to Q1 activity data; Fed to start lifting rates in March.

Despite everything the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown at the small business community the spirit of entrepreneurship is alive and well in Australia.

Our latest weekly data to 12 February shows a strong recovery in spending since January.

Over 1 in 5 Australians have changed jobs in the past year. Almost 1 in 4 are considering it, with many planning to move to a new role in a new industry or take a career break.

Strong rebound slowed by Omicron as inflation builds.

Conditions deteriorate as Omicron peaks.

As agriculture’s record run continues, what’s ahead for 2022.

While the past two weeks’ data is a little less encouraging than our previous release, there does not appear to be a major deterioration.

Pre-Omicron economy was confident but facing constraints.

While spending has softened, it is nowhere near as bad as some have reported and we had feared.

Fed policy tightening brought forward.

Omicron dampens confidence, price pressures continue.

RBA to end QE in February while forecasts suggest Omicron is set to peak, adding greater inflation risk.

Our latest data for the fortnight to 11 November shows retail pulling back somewhat, following what looks to be a Black Friday - Cyber Monday surge two weeks ago.

Australia's wellbeing levels fall sharply as lockdowns bite in several states. But financial stress has eased & fewer Australians are experiencing financial hardship.

Activity snaps back in Q4, pre-Delta GDP within reach

Conditions stabilise as reopening progresses

2022 is set to become a year of central banks removing monetary accommodation.

Q4 GDP looking strong; Fed turning more hawkish

Our latest data shows consumers continuing to power ahead across Australia.

GDP Q3 2021 – A short and sharp fall, now firmly in the rear view mirror.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Fed Monetary Policy Update.

Austria has re-imposed lockdown restrictions with a sharp rise in hospitalisations being driven by both the unvaccinated and older fully vaccinated people.

One in 10 Australians has moved during the pandemic, with many leaving capital cities for greener pastures. Here, the behavioural economist Dean Pearson explains what this means for house prices in 2022.

Consumer spending continues to trend higher in NSW, Victoria and the ACT well after lockdowns ease.

Call it a treechange, call it a search for opportunity… whatever the reason, many Australians are swapping the city for a rural idyll. Regional Australia Institute CEO Liz Ritchie discusses the implications and opportunities of this migration.

From tackling risk to growing your employee value proposition, 2022 is going to throw your business plenty of opportunities. Here’s our expert take on what they’ll look like and how to respond.

Rates lift-off brought forward as rebound begins.

Conditions and confidence rise out of lockdown.

Growth slows in Q3 but inflation still elevated.

The good news just keeps rolling on for Australian agriculture, with already very good seasonal conditions boosted by the increasing possibility of a La Nina event, combined with ongoing commodity price strength.

Conditions and confidence hit by lockdowns in Q3.

The first full week of Sydney reopening and NSW jumped (up around 15% in the week – reflecting hospitality and personal services (e.g. hairdressers) reopening, but other states showed weakness.

Waiting for the rebound after Q3 lockdowns.

Confidence rebounds on the back of roadmaps, vaccination.

Encouraging news on the data front this week.

The Fed is set to taper – but rate hikes are still a way off

Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his view on the different impacts COVID-19 has had on industries and provide a broader macroeconomic outlook on the Australian economy.

COVID 19 continues to be the main driver of growth both in the recovery phase and as the Delta variant spreads. With vaccines looking promising 2021 looks like being a bounce back year.

A near term hit to GDP before the recovery continues.

Confidence and conditions tick up.

This week's consumption data results give us some cautious optimism for Q4.

GDP surprises, rising 0.7% q/q.

In our latest report, we look at what small business needs to succeed.

NAB Rural Commodities Index hits a record high sitting 12.6% above August 2020 levels.

The NSW and Victorian outbreaks remain stubbornly high in the face of strict lockdown measures, renewing focus on vaccinations as the path forward. The vaccination rollout is finding its gear, led by a sharp acceleration in NSW, putting the rollout on track to meet reopening thresholds by November.

Lockdowns in Australia are likely to have a very acute impact on the economy, much more than what the RBA had pencilled in only a week ago. While NAB still expects a sharp rebound in activity when restrictions ease, the near-term impact is likely to be larger with lockdowns extending beyond Sydney (e.g. NSW, Melbourne and ACT).

Consumption is now down around 3%, compared to the start of 2021.

GDP to fall but recovery will resume as lockdowns end.

Confidence and conditions fall further with ongoing lockdowns.

Q2 GDP growth below expectations but still strong.

Consumption is down almost 7% compared to the start of 2021.

Lower currency continues to buoy Australian agriculture.

Wellbeing up & now at its highest level since 2019. Resilience is building, but wellbeing is falling for the unemployed & low income earners. NSW lockdown a key risk.

The Sydney lockdown is in its fifth week and looks set to be extended well beyond July 30. Given the high transmission rates of the delta variant, snap lockdowns are likely to remain a ‘tool of first resort’ in controlling the virus until vaccination rates lift.

Conditions at a record high in Q2.

The Sydney lockdown is now in its fourth week with restrictions tightened further on the weekend. In this Weekly we update our estimates of the impact of these recent lockdowns.

Compared to the start of 2021, consumption is now down around 0.7%.

Lockdown disruptions but expect recovery to continue.

Wages growth and expectations.

Confidence falls on virus fears.

Victorian spending has bounced back to above the national average.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Fed – Still dovish but less than previously thought.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Agricultural commodity prices continue to perform generally very well, rounding out a generally strong period for many agricultural producers.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

The weakness in consumption spending continued last week.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

A healthy outlook for the economy beyond the rebound.

Business conditions continue to boom.

The slowdown in consumption continues.

GDP Recovers Pre-COVID Levels

Q2 growth still looking strong; April inflation surprise.

Retail spending is down around 5% compared to the start of the year.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Business confidence and conditions hit new highs.

Encouraging headline results for the week ending 1 May, further underline our view that the Australian economy is recovering well from the pandemic.

Commodity prices stay strong amid rising Australian Dollar.

Working from home can significantly improve work life balance, however, can also bring on other health concerns, particularly for mental health and feelings of isolation.

GDP growth off to a good start in early 2021 and set to accelerate.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

Momentum builds.

Retail a little better (but still soft) and hospitality is showing strong performance after a very tough 2020.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

Healthy momentum leading into the JobKeeper wind-up.

Business conditions reach a record high.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

One year on from the onset of the first Australian coronavirus lockdowns.

2021 should be a year of strong growth

Rising commodity prices underpin positive outlook.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

With many CBD office workers still working from home, this week we consider the impact of the pandemic on key CBD sectors.

GDP fully recovered by Q1, but spare capacity remains.

Despite a very strong start to the recovery, the economy is likely to have spare capacity for some time.

Business conditions bounce, confidence rises further.

We all value our time, but some of us feel we are under more time pressure than others.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

Rebound continues as Victoria ends lockdown.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

Consumption growth continues to moderate in the latest NAB Data Insights release for the week-ended 20 February 2021.

2021 set to be a year of very strong growth.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.

Businesses are having to adjust to a new kind of consumer, but it remains unclear which behaviours and sentiments will stick.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.