ECONOMY

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen further gains in most agricultural commodity prices, tentative signs of a stabilisation in fertiliser prices, combined with a lower AUD and a weakening global growth outlook.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in May.

This article first appeared in the Australian Financial Review – Mark Eggleton

The Fed tightens the screws.

Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.

Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 11 June shows ongoing signs of deterioration, albeit from elevated levels earlier this year.

Global growth prospects continue to weaken.

COVID-19 uncertainty continues to cloud China’s economic outlook.

Our data show a drop in retail sales in May, albeit from generally strong levels seen earlier in the year.