Seasonal conditions and declining winter crop forecasts reflect drop in NAB Rural Commodities Index.

RBA to cut in October and again in December, taking the cash rate to 0.5% by year’s end.

China’s industrial sector struggling ahead of the latest round of trade measures.

Crude oil markets may tighten significantly following weaponised drone attacks on the world’s largest oil refinery at Abqaiq on Saturday.

Global economic growth slowed further in Q2 2019. Major advanced economy (AE) GDP growth declined to its slowest pace since mid-2016.

Recovery in housing values accelerated in August.

Global growth slows further as trade disputes escalate…again.

In US dollar terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 1.8% quarter on quarter in Q3 2019.

Cash Rate to 0.5% by February; more stimulus by mid 2020 unless the Government steps in.

Below-trend growth and low inflation still expected as downside risks build. We have inserted another rate cut(s) in early 2020.

Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point – well below long-run averages.

Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates that sales growth was negative in July 2019, following on from an almost flat result in June.

Resilient cattle and lamb prices sustain flat NAB Rural Commodities Index.

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