China’s consumers aren’t ready to drive the economy’s growth.

Recent tariff announcements are a modest negative for growth in US and China although Chinese policy will look to offset the impact.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 1.1% in August on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.7% (revised) in July.

The bigger picture – a global and Australian economic perspective.

Growth at a multi-year high but set to slow as risks build.

A strong first half and easing downside risks.

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

International and domestic events have added to the AUD/USD volatility.

US economy still strong, but trade concerns won’t go away.

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.

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