Hopes of a US-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement have lifted financial markets. While in Australia we’ve lowered our near-term forecast for growth.

Most of China’s indicators relatively weak year-on-year, however, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the start of the October has made this harder to gauge.

Near term growth prospects still weak, but potential trade deal offers some upside.

Private demand still stalled. Broadly unchanged forecasts but slightly lower growth in the near term. Policy help delayed.

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

Latest report shows a 1.2% rise in national dwelling values, delivering the fourth straight month of rising values. 

Student wellbeing on the agenda for schools.

NAB Residential Property Index moves back into positive territory for first time since mid-2018.

Trade war finally shows its impact on China, as industrial sector drags Q3 growth lower.

Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.

Wheat crop cops sharp downgrade amid tough spring.

Consumer anxiety rises as concerns over the economy grow.

With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.

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