COVID lockdowns point to weaker growth and greater uncertainty in the near term.

We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.

Growth set to slow to below its long-run average

Rates to rise further as strong growth continues

We see retail sales continuing to grow in April, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previous months.

Conditions rise further on Recreation & Personal Services recovery.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a second consecutive month in March.

Even with GDP falling in Q1, the Fed is set to move faster.

The COVID-19 pandemic could accelerate China’s long term demographic pressures

Follow the money: The strength of China’s outward foreign investment during pandemic raises questions.

Housing market sentiment buoyed by growing rents as prices slow, but confidence slips as expectations for price growth scaled back. Early signs foreign buyers may be returning to the market, while interest rates weigh more heavily on local homebuyers. NAB’s outlook for dwelling prices is broadly unchanged – we still expect a slowing in national prices through 2022, before a moderate fall of around 10% in 2023.

Omicron weighed on SME conditions and confidence in Q1.

COVID outbreaks dampened growth in March, and cloud near-term outlook.

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