Conditions ease further, while confidence increases.

Current market sentiment among property professionals still negative but lifted in Q2 post the Federal election. Future expectations also improved sharply, reflecting a stronger outlook for prices and rents.

Recent RBA research shows that high mortgage debt is a drag on consumer spending, helping explain the weak growth in consumption since the global financial crisis.

The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 0.5% in June.

Growth slowed in Q2 but policy support should see it stabilise.

Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index has been on the up in recent quarters, in large part due to iron ore prices.

Forecasts unchanged – including key drivers of growth. Rate cuts to help but mainly in 2020. Fiscal stimulus impact small.

Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.

Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates a return to sales growth in May 2019, after considerable weakness in April.

Lower mortgage rates and improved sentiment could already having a flow-on effect for housing market conditions.

Fruit and vegetable prices are the two most volatile components of the CPI and can have a large effect on headline inflation.

June was another month of two halves for the AUD/USD.

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