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A changing landscape

A changing landscape

14 March 2024

Download the latest NAB Regional and Agribusiness Horizons Report for data-led insights on the state of play in regional and rural Australia.

A changing landscape

Insight

Property Market Update & Economic Outlook

Property Market Update & Economic Outlook

13 March 2024

Hear NAB’s senior expert panellists discuss a range of topics to provide key insights to help you and your business prepare for the current property market climate.

Property Market Update & Economic Outlook
NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

21 December 2023

There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

24 November 2023

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

19 October 2023

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

Insight

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

22 September 2023

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

Article

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole

29 August 2023

Powell affirmed the Fed will ‘keep at it’ on inflation, but what else happened at Jackson Hole? In the weekly, we pull out some of the key insights, including on the outlook for government debt and the ‘friendshoring’ dynamic.

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

17 August 2023

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

20 July 2023

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

22 June 2023

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

18 May 2023

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

20 April 2023

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

23 February 2023

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

16 December 2022

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

14 December 2022

Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

11 November 2022

We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

9 November 2022

Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

Insight

Australian housing market update: November 2022

Australian housing market update: November 2022

9 November 2022

CoreLogic’s national home value index moved through its sixth month of decline last month, with values down a further 1.2%, taking the cumulative drop from the market peak to 6.0%.

Australian housing market update: November 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

14 October 2022

Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

Insight

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

12 October 2022

National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

16 September 2022

We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

10 September 2022

Australian agricultural commodity prices have continued to unwind, posting a second month of lower prices as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index. This comes against a backdrop of continued excellent seasonal conditions, but elevated input costs and rapidly rising interest rates to control global inflation.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

12 August 2022

We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

15 July 2022

Globally, major central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to the highest inflation in decades, thereby straining household finances and leading to falls in asset prices. For Australia, we have not changed our view on the underlying trajectory for the economy but see greater risk for household consumption on the back of higher rates and inflation.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

28 June 2022

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen further gains in most agricultural commodity prices, tentative signs of a stabilisation in fertiliser prices, combined with a lower AUD and a weakening global growth outlook.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

17 June 2022

Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

Insight

Land of Opportunity

Land of Opportunity

25 May 2022

Download NAB’s Regional & Agribusiness Horizons Report for compelling new insights into regional and rural Australia.

Land of Opportunity

Article

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

17 May 2022

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen three key changes, namely more rain forecast, ongoing inflationary pressures making central banks more hawkish and a materially weaker global economic outlook.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

13 May 2022

We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

14 April 2022

The global economic outlook remains clouded by numerous factors, however, we expect that the global economy will grow by 3.7% in 2022 and then slow to a trend- like 3.5% in 2023. For Australia, GDP is expected to grow by a strong 3.4% this year – supported by healthy growth in consumption and ongoing gains in business investment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

13 April 2022

March has seen smoother retail prospects when compared to the very choppy conditions across January and February, with our forecast pointing to moderate growth in the month.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

11 March 2022

Globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a significant spike in energy prices – reflecting the importance of Russia in the production and export of oil, natural gas and coal, in combination with limited additional supply elsewhere. Locally, the war in Europe poses risks on both the activity and nominal sides of the economy, uncertainty is now highly elevated – but the central-case for Australia’s economy largely remains strong.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

Insight

NAB Economics live webinar with Dean Pearson

NAB Economics live webinar with Dean Pearson

18 February 2022

Dean Pearson, NAB's Head of Behavioural and Industry Economics shares his views on the economy, including the impacts of labour shortages on Australian businesses across a broad range of industries and insights from NAB’s latest business survey.

NAB Economics live webinar with Dean Pearson

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

14 February 2022

Globally the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has spread rapidly; the sheer number of cases is disrupting economic activity as infected workers are forced to isolate. In Australia, we have revised up the expected rebound in Q4 GDP, but pulled down Q1 2022 as the spread of omicron weighs on the economy through both consumer caution as well as disruption to business.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

17 December 2021

For Australia the Q3 national accounts showed a smaller hit to activity than we had expected but we continue to see a very strong snap back in activity in Q4. Globally, advanced economy growth was robust in Q3, and a similar outcome is expected in Q4 albeit with a shift in the source of growth away from Europe towards the US and Japan.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

Insight

Housing: is it a good time to buy?

Housing: is it a good time to buy?

22 November 2021

One in 10 Australians has moved during the pandemic, with many leaving capital cities for greener pastures. Here, the behavioural economist Dean Pearson explains what this means for house prices in 2022.

Housing: is it a good time to buy?

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

12 November 2021

We have trimmed our global economic forecasts this month to 5.7% for 2021, however should this occur, it would still be the strongest rate of growth since 1973. For Australia, our internal data and NAB Monthly Business Survey indicate the economy is again rebounding strongly as NSW and Vic reopen following the extended lockdowns through mid-2021.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

10 November 2021

Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, but with reopening here, consumers are bouncing back and spending has returned.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

Insight

Australian housing market update: November 2021

Australian housing market update: November 2021

4 November 2021

Australian housing values rose 1.5% last month, a similar result to August and September. However, the trend shows the market is continuing to slowly lose momentum since moving through a peak monthly rate of growth in March 2021, when values were up 2.8%.

Australian housing market update: November 2021

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

21 October 2021

The good news just keeps rolling on for Australian agriculture, with already very good seasonal conditions boosted by the increasing possibility of a La Nina event, combined with ongoing commodity price strength.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

15 October 2021

We have revised our global economic forecasts lower – to 5.9% for 2021. For Australia, a very sharp fall in activity in Q3 is locked in however we continue to expect a solid rebound in Q4 , and strong growth continuing into early 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

Insight

Australian housing market update: October 2021

Australian housing market update: October 2021

11 October 2021

Australian housing values rose 17.6% higher over the first nine months of the year and 20.3% higher over the past 12 months. The annual growth rate is now tracking at the fastest pace since the year ending June 1989.

Australian housing market update: October 2021

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

23 September 2021

COVID 19 continues to be the main driver of growth both in the recovery phase and as the Delta variant spreads. With vaccines looking promising 2021 looks like being a bounce back year.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

17 September 2021

COVID 19 remains the main risk to the global economic outlook, while in Australia the key risks to our forecasts remain the timing and pace of the easing in restrictions, and further out, the underlying pace of growth as the impact of policy measures fades.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

13 August 2021

Due to lockdowns, we expect to see a large hit to activity in Australia in Q3. Our global growth forecast for 2021 is marginally weaker this month, 6.2% compared with 6.3% previously.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

16 July 2021

COVID-19 remains the most significant risk for our global outlook. While in Australia, the current virus outbreak in NSW and associated lockdowns/border closures highlights the uncertainty around economic forecasting at present.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

22 June 2021

Agricultural commodity prices continue to perform generally very well, rounding out a generally strong period for many agricultural producers.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

16 April 2021

High frequency indicators continue to point to a recovery in the global economy in early 2021. In Australia, the economic recovery continues at a brisk pace with forward indicators pointing toward ongoing strength in activity and the labour market, even as some fiscal support is wound back.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

14 April 2021

2021 is already showing signs that the retail sector is returning to something resembling “normal”, which is likely to see lower retail spending in areas like household goods, electronics and similar sectors.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

12 March 2021

Rising restrictions to combat a resurgence in the spread of COVID-19 towards the end of 2020 slowed the global recovery but did not derail it. In Australia, the economy continues to recover at a rapid pace.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

12 February 2021

The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. Whereas in Australia, economic activity continues to rebound strongly.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

11 December 2020

Globally GDP rebounded strongly across all the major advanced economies in Q3, however the spread of COVID-19 remains a key risk to the outlook. In Australia our outlook now resembles the best-case scenario we outlined at the start of the pandemic, although large uncertainties remain, even with a vaccine seemingly close to being rolled out.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

9 December 2020

Victorian retail sales are now tracking just behind New South Wales and Queensland on a year ended basis. Western Australia remains the strongest performer, but other states are catching up.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

11 November 2020

The retail sector has proven to be very resilient this year, although many consumers have changed their spending behaviour, leading to a boom for some retailers and bust for others.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

Insight

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

5 November 2020

With COVID-19 restrictions easing across much of the country, consumer anxiety has continued to moderate and spending behaviours are shifting.

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

11 September 2020

Globally, after massive falls in GDP in Q2 across the advanced economies, the latest indicators are pointing to a substantial, but incomplete, Q3 rebound. In Australia, GDP fell by 7% in Q2 – the largest fall in the history of the quarterly national accounts.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

Insight

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

2 September 2020

Q2 GDP fell by a massive 7% (-6.3% y/y), confirming the large hit to economic activity as a result of the shutdown to limit the COVID-19 pandemic.

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

14 August 2020

The global economy continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. However, there is still a long way back with progress. In Australia, we have downgraded our forecasts due to the containment measures in Victoria.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

Podcast

Australian housing market update: August 2020

Australian housing market update: August 2020

10 August 2020

Record low interest rates, government support and loan repayment holidays for distressed borrowers have helped to insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn.

Australian housing market update: August 2020

Insight

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

15 July 2020

Our data mapping points to a moderate fall in June, following massive swings in March, April and May suggesting there has been some stabilisation in retail sales.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

Podcast

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

6 July 2020

NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts NAB Chief Econonist Alan Oster, sharing his thoughts on the current state of the Australian economy and the road to recovery.

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

Webinar

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

25 June 2020

NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts Charter Keck & Cramer Chairman Scott Keck and NAB Valuations Manager Alex Dimou to discuss the Melbourne residential property landscape and share their positive outlook for the market.

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020

12 June 2020

Extremely large falls in Q2 GDP for many advanced and emerging economies are likely, while in Australia we expect a large fall of around 8.5% in Q2, following the 0.3% decline in Q1.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020
NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

11 June 2020

The trend improvement in consumption-based spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it may be levelling off and even slowing a little.

NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

Insight

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

28 May 2020

The overall trend in consumption spending continues to improve, but in 4-week moving average terms is down 7.8% over the same time last year and 5.8% since the start of 2020.

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

Insight

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

14 May 2020

Large falls in consumption-based spending although the pace of decline looks to have stabilised. However business payment inflows have weakened further.

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

Insight

NAB Real Estate Insights Webinar

NAB Real Estate Insights Webinar

8 May 2020

Brett Moore, Customer Executive Professional Services leads a discussion with NAB experts Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, Dean Pearson, Head of Economics Research and Mark Browning, NAB's Head of Residential Valuations in sharing their view on the varying impacts COVID-19 has had on the Real Estate industry.

NAB Real Estate Insights Webinar

Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

24 April 2020

Co-hosted by Biljana Nikolova - Customer Executive, Government, Education and Community and Shamal Dass - Head of Philanthropic Services, JBWere, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy; and Daniel Farrell - Associate Director, Rates, Global Markets shares his view on interest rate risk management.

NAB Economics Update Webinar

Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

17 April 2020

Hosted by Greg Morris - Customer Executive, NAB Private, and Kate Galvin - Customer Executive, NAB Health, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy.

NAB Economics Update Webinar

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

17 April 2020

The global economy is in a deep recession due to the rapid and widespread escalation in Covid-19 containment measures since mid-March. While the domestic economy is now expected to see a contraction of an unprecedented speed and magnitude.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

16 March 2020

We've significantly lowered our global growth forecasts, and in Australia growth slowed confirming a below-trend pace of growth prior to any virus impact.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020

12 February 2020

Good January rainfall across key agricultural production areas drove the NAB Rural Commodities Index 4.6% higher this month, despite the impact of bushfires and coronavirus.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020
NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019

28 January 2020

The cost of living remains the single biggest driver of consumer anxiety, despite low levels of economy-wide inflation. To understand why, we asked Australians to tell us which costs are adding most to their living expenses.

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019

13 December 2019

Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019
China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019

15 November 2019

Most of China’s indicators relatively weak year-on-year, however, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the start of the October has made this harder to gauge.

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019

12 November 2019

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

14 October 2019

With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019

8 October 2019

Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

16 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war has reverberated through financial markets. The policy response will be important - we now expect two further 25bp cuts in the fed funds rate this year. China is also likely to use policy measures to offset any tariff impact, including allowing further depreciation of its currency.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

14 August 2019

US dollar NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecasted to increase by 2.1% yoy in Q3 2019, however underlying trends remain highly mixed. Higher export prices for LNG and iron ore (despite more recent spot price falls) are the key contributors, while both thermal and metallurgical coal are weaker, as are most base metals.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019

13 August 2019

We're seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month - business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don't point to an improvement in the near term.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

12 July 2019

Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

24 June 2019

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019

13 May 2019

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.1% in April, largely reflecting higher cattle, lamb, dairy and cotton prices, offsetting further declines in grain.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019
State Economic Handbook: April 2019

State Economic Handbook: April 2019

18 April 2019

Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.

State Economic Handbook: April 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019

12 March 2019

Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019
The AUD in February 2019

The AUD in February 2019

1 March 2019

The AUD/USD was conflicted in February, as improvements in risk sentiment and higher commodity prices pulled the currency higher, but a softer domestic economic outlook and a more dovish RBA acted as an offsetting force.

The AUD in February 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

12 February 2019

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% this quarter – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018

8 February 2019

Consumer anxiety reaches its highest level in over 3 years as slow income growth, high debt levels and weaker growth in household wealth weighed on households and their spending.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018
The AUD in November 2018

The AUD in November 2018

3 December 2018

After rallying at the beginning of the month, AUD/USD mostly range-traded between 72 and 73 cents during the rest of November.

The AUD in November 2018
The AUD in October 2018

The AUD in October 2018

1 November 2018

The AUD/USD continued its downtrend in October, reaching a fresh low of 0.7023 on the 26th of the month, a level not seen since February 2016.

The AUD in October 2018
NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

25 October 2018

Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.

NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018

24 October 2018

Anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns and how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

18 October 2018

The business conditions index decreased 2pts to +13 in 2018 Q3, but remains well above its long-run average. Business confidence also fell, declining 4pts to +3 index points, a little below its historical average.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018

NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018

17 October 2018

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.2% in September on a month-on-month basis, its weakest result since April this year. Five out of six major categories grew in the month; while other retailing contracted.

NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018

15 October 2018

In US dollar terms, the NAB non-rural commodity price index rose marginally in Q3 2018 – increasing by 0.4% qoq. The strong upturn in the first quarter of this year contributed to a much more significant increase in year-on-year terms – up by 8.2%.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018

9 October 2018

Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018

11 September 2018

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018

30 August 2018

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018

23 August 2018

Consumer anxiety up steeply in Q2. Overall spending tightens as concerns about the economy and our household financial positions grow. Spending on utilities a key expense, and growing.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

17 August 2018

Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018

14 August 2018

The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018
Markets Today: Closer to fine

Markets Today: Closer to fine

18 July 2018

The move higher in front end yields boosted the USD, although the greenback was already on the ascendency early in the overnight sessions.

Markets Today: Closer to fine
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018

10 July 2018

The business conditions index ticked up by 1pt to +15 index points in June, after easing in the previous month. The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018

10 July 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.4% month on month in June, following a 3.1% gain in May. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in June. The monthly gain reflects strong lamb, wool and cotton prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

5 July 2018

NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018

15 June 2018

Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.

Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018

12 June 2018

The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018

5 June 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 3.1% month on month in May after falling 2.8% in April. On a year on year basis, the index was down 4.4% in May. The monthly gain reflects strong grain, horticultural, dairy, wool and cotton prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018
Are we an entrepreneurial nation?

Are we an entrepreneurial nation?

30 May 2018

Australia is a high performer in academic research – yet when it comes to commercialising that research, we rank last in the industrialised world. It’s time for change, says the Chairman of NAB.

Are we an entrepreneurial nation?
Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre

Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre

29 May 2018

My ‘whys’ haven’t changed over 25 years at NAB. I’m still driven by the impact economics has on our lives and the importance of delivering independent analysis that helps people and institutions make better decisions.

Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017

4 May 2018

Total NAB customer spending accelerated to 5.0% y/y in Q4 2017, from 3.0% y/y in the previous quarter with spending growth up across all metropolitan and regional areas.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017
NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018

26 April 2018

Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns & how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018

13 April 2018

After a somewhat disappointing 2017 we continue to expect growth to gain more momentum during 2018 – with GDP increasing by around 3% through the year or 2.8% in year average terms.

NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018

16 March 2018

Financial market volatility has eased since the US equity market correction in late January but a range of geo-political and market events could trigger another bout of uncertainty.

NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018
Markets Today: Breathe

Markets Today: Breathe

15 March 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the market reaction to this, and to Theresa May’s announcement that 23 Russian diplomats will be sent packing in response to the Salisbury nerve agent attack.

Markets Today: Breathe
Markets Today: 14 March 2018

Markets Today: 14 March 2018

14 March 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Cattril about the market impact of a President following a “my way or the highway” agenda.

Markets Today: 14 March 2018
AUD/GBP Forecast

AUD/GBP Forecast

13 March 2018

NAB’s positive view of GBP and forecast decline in AUD/GBP is in the immediate term.

AUD/GBP Forecast
AUD Annotated Chart: February 2018

AUD Annotated Chart: February 2018

13 March 2018

In February the AUD/USD gave back all of its January gains and some more. February was a month characterised by an increase in market volatility, particularly in equities amid US inflationary concerns alongside a rise in US bond yields and their implicit valuation concerns for physical and risk assets.

AUD Annotated Chart: February 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018

6 March 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.2% month on month in February, following a drop of 1.8% in January. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in February. The gain was driven by higher grain, fruit and dairy prices, offsetting falls in beef, lamb and sugar.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

20 February 2018

Stability in financial markets over 2017 and early 2018 came to abrupt end in recent weeks, with a surge in market volatility and big falls in equity markets and prices for many commodities.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018

16 February 2018

The calm in financial markets for much of 2017 and into early 2018 recently came to an abrupt end with a surge in market volatility and big falls in share prices.

NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017

8 February 2018

The quarterly NAB Business Survey gives a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017
NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017

7 February 2018

NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index* was basically unchanged in Q4 2017 at near survey lows with job security causing Australians the least stress, consistent with a strongly improving labour market.

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017
Why peace equals profits

Why peace equals profits

18 January 2018

Steve Killelea, the man behind the Global Peace Index, explains its potential value in helping make investment decisions.

Why peace equals profits
Reg S bond market: The rise of Asia’s own dollar bond market

Reg S bond market: The rise of Asia’s own dollar bond market

18 January 2018

The growth of the Reg S bond market has been one of the defining trends of the Asian capital markets in recent years. Driven by the seemingly unstoppable rise of Asian wealth – especially deep-pocketed Chinese investors – US dollar bond sales in the region no longer depend on the participation of US institutions.

Reg S bond market: The rise of Asia’s own dollar bond market
2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance

2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance

16 January 2018

2017 was marked by a return to stability following the volatility of recent times and the rise of innovative new products, especially in the green and social sectors.

2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance
NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017

15 December 2017

Last month’s spike in business conditions was completely unwound in the November NAB Monthly Business Survey, although the index remains at very elevated levels. Business confidence has been less volatile, but appears to be showing a modest downward trend.

NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017
Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture

Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture

5 December 2017

Australia’s GDP continues to grow in spite of subdued wages growth and consumer spending. Gaining a greater understanding of how these contradictory trends break down across regional and metropolitan areas, as well as consumer spending categories, is behind NAB’s expansion of its Consumer Spending and Cashless Retail analyses.

Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture
South Korea: Perspectives, trends and insights

South Korea: Perspectives, trends and insights

4 December 2017

This independent report for National Australia Bank (NAB) by the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University, examines the outlook for the South Korean economy and its growing importance in the Asia Pacific region.

South Korea: Perspectives, trends and insights
Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017

Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017

1 December 2017

The economy is likely to have grown at a solid clip in Q3. While some pieces of the growth puzzle are falling into place, the stark divergence between business and consumer spending remains despite jobs growth. Non-mining and infrastructure investment will be encouraging for the RBA, but higher wages growth is required.

Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017

17 November 2017

The read on business conditions was extremely strong in the October NAB Monthly Business Survey, with manufacturing posting a strong result despite the recent closure of auto manufacturing plants. The conditions index jumped to a record high, and while confidence is not quite as buoyant, it is holding above long-run average levels.

NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017
State Economic Handbook: October 2017

State Economic Handbook: October 2017

17 October 2017

Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.

State Economic Handbook: October 2017
NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017

13 October 2017

Australian housing market sentiment lifted over the third quarter of 2017, supported mainly by a large increase in the number of property experts reporting positive rental growth in the quarter and continued house price growth in most states.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017

13 October 2017

For Australia, outcomes in the September NAB Monthly Business Survey were generally upbeat. Business conditions remain rock steady at levels close to their multi-year highs, but business confidence rose only modestly after a big fall last month.

NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017

27 September 2017

Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – their anxieties around future spending and savings plans, what drives these concerns and how they are impacting actual spending behaviours and financial hardship.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017
Farm Management Deposits crack  billion

Farm Management Deposits crack $6 billion

25 September 2017

For the first time since their introduction in 1999, Farm Management Deposits have topped $6 billion. Khan Horne, General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, explains which sectors and states have fuelled this incredible growth, and what the result means for the Australian agricultural sector. Khan Horne, General Manager, NAB Agribusiness

Farm Management Deposits crack  billion
NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017

NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017

20 September 2017

Australia’s next phase of growth must be defined by ideas, creativity and execution. Our future lies in our ability to foster a culture of innovation. But how do we measure innovation across all sizes and types of business?

NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017
US Economic Update: September 2017

US Economic Update: September 2017

8 September 2017

Increasing household wealth (due to rising equity and house prices), as well as a high level of consumer confidence, remain tailwinds for consumer spending.

US Economic Update: September 2017
Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017

Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017

4 September 2017

Q2 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 6 September at 11:30am AEST. Additional partials will be available tomorrow and may alter our forecast.

Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017

11 August 2017

The July NAB Monthly Business Survey showed a continuation of the strong run enjoyed by the business sector. Business conditions rose to their highest level since early 2008, while confidence also strengthened.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017

14 July 2017

Revisions to real GDP growth forecasts this month largely reflect a stronger than expected rebound in coal exports following disruptions from Cyclone Debbie in Q1. Further out, we have not fundamentally changed the tone of our outlook.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017
Gold in focus: July 2017

Gold in focus: July 2017

13 July 2017

Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.

Gold in focus: July 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017

11 July 2017

Business conditions hit another multi-year high, with most industries performing well. Stronger trading conditions (sales) and profitability drove the improvement, while employment conditions were steady.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017
China Economic Update: June 2017

China Economic Update: June 2017

5 July 2017

In May, international ratings agency Moody’s announced a downgrade for China’s sovereign credit rating, citing the country’s rising debt as a key factor in this decision.

China Economic Update: June 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017

3 July 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017
SMEs redefine success and customers come out on top

SMEs redefine success and customers come out on top

27 June 2017

Customer satisfaction, becoming a viable business and surviving tough economic conditions are the top three moments that matter for Australian SMEs, according to a new report released by NAB. And while almost half of SMEs are set to expand, they’re feeling some pressure.

SMEs redefine success and customers come out on top
NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017

16 June 2017

The NAB Monthly Business Survey was a little softer in May, but still points to a healthy business sector. Business conditions are elevated and confidence is holding up above long-run average levels.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017
Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017

Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017

15 June 2017

Financial anxiety eases but 4 in 10 consumers still experienced some form of financial hardship in the last 3 months. Financial anxiety continues to be a bigger issue for young people (particularly women) and low income earners.

Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017
Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017

6 June 2017

This is the second month of NAB’s new regional price indicators, in effect a separate NAB Rural Commodities Index for every region in Australia.

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017
Markets Today: Strong enough

Markets Today: Strong enough

5 June 2017

Sheryl Crow’s hit ”strong enough” finds Crow frustrated in a relationship and asking the question, "Are you strong enough to be my man?". ell Friday night was all about the US jobs report and no doubt a similar question (without the man bit of course) crossed investors’ mind.

Markets Today: Strong enough
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017

31 May 2017

New data released by NAB today shows that spending on consumption-based goods and services by NAB customers slowed to 2.0% over the year to Q1 2017, from 3.1% over the year to Q4 2016.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017

24 May 2017

NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index - which measures concerns about future spending and savings arising from job security, health, retirement, cost of living and government polices - fell to a survey low 55.9 points in Q1 2017 (58.7 in Q4 2016).

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017

8 May 2017

The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017
NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016

NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016

26 April 2017

Australians remain highly anxious. While having more money might solve some of our concerns, it would do little to solve some of the biggest detractors of wellbeing. But, it could help close the “wellbeing gap” between high and low income earners.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017

3 April 2017

With house prices rising, vacancy rates declining and a previous drop in building approvals, it’s likely that residential construction activity should begin to strengthen.

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017
Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.

Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.

20 March 2017

R.I.P. Chuck Berry. And R.I.P. anti-protectionism, after the weekend G20 meeting communique omitted reference to avoiding protectionism, reflecting the new reality of the USA’s position

Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017

17 March 2017

In February, the NAB Monthly Business Survey moderated from the surprising strength seen in January, but remained consistent with a relatively robust view of business activity and investment behaviour in the near-term.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017
Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017

Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017

8 March 2017

Financial markets rallied strongly shortly after it was clear Donald Trump would be the next President. This was evident across stock, currency and bond markets, and there was also a decline in credit spreads.

Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017
State Economic Handbook: March 2017

State Economic Handbook: March 2017

8 March 2017

Growth will remain solid across the large south-eastern states, while there are signs of stabilisation in mining states as the end of the downswing in resource-related investment approaches.

State Economic Handbook: March 2017
Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

24 February 2017

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016
NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017

17 February 2017

Business surveys and measures tracking the volume of activity suggest that the global economic upturn lifted a notch toward the end of last year and that trend seems to have continued into early 2017.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017
India Monetary Policy: February 2017

India Monetary Policy: February 2017

14 February 2017

The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.

India Monetary Policy: February 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

14 February 2017

The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017
US Economic Update: February 2017

US Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.

US Economic Update: February 2017
China Economic Update: February 2017

China Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

From a political perspective, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP reflected US sentiment against globalisation, particularly in the mid-west rust belt.

China Economic Update: February 2017
Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017

30 January 2017

While we are receiving many questions about the impact of President Trump’s policies on the outlook for the US and global economies and markets, the most frequent question we are being asked about Australia is “why is NAB forecasting two interest rate cuts in 2017” (in May and August)?

Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017
US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP

US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP

30 January 2017

We expect growth to face some headwinds in coming quarters but to strengthen later in the year and into the next, assuming the President delivers a fiscal stimulus to the economy

US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP
US Trade Policy. What Now?  January 2017

US Trade Policy. What Now? January 2017

23 January 2017

Re-building the US industrial base, aiming to “massively increase jobs, wages, incomes and opportunities for the people of our country” is the principal economic objective of the Trump Presidency.

US Trade Policy. What Now?  January 2017
Australian Markets Weekly: 16 January 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 16 January 2016

17 January 2017

Against flatter job advertisements of late, job vacancies have been trending higher. Higher job vacancies are usually associated with a lower unemployment rate and greater employment growth

Australian Markets Weekly: 16 January 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: 19 December 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 19 December 2016

20 December 2016

Australia’s population growth remains strong by historical and international standards at around 1.4% y/y. That is 338,000 persons in the past year – nearly equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year.

Australian Markets Weekly: 19 December 2016
The Forward View – Global: December 2016

The Forward View – Global: December 2016

14 December 2016

Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth, they have been improving in the months leading up to November.

The Forward View – Global: December 2016
Service economy blooming

Service economy blooming

14 November 2016

While the 24-hour news cycle may talk down Australia’s transition from a commodity to service economy, the figures tell a different, and very positive, story.

Service economy blooming
US Economic Update: November 2016

US Economic Update: November 2016

11 November 2016

The new President and administration will take office at a time when the economy is in reasonably solid condition at the macro level.

US Economic Update: November 2016
NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016

NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016

11 November 2016

Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth – and they have been improving in the months leading up to October.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016

28 October 2016

The progress of the season, which has been generally much wetter than average in eastern Australia but dryer in the west, continues to be the major consideration for Australian agriculture.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016
How will Australians retire?

How will Australians retire?

20 October 2016

As Australia’s population ages and ‘baby boomer’ retirements head toward their zenith in 2025, a discussion on the Retirement Risk Zone, that is the 10 years leading to retirement, is timely.

How will Australians retire?
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016

20 October 2016

The quarterly iteration of the NAB Business Survey provides additional valuable insight into Australian business than the regular NAB Monthly Business Survey. This publication offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016
The Forward View – Australia: October 2016

The Forward View – Australia: October 2016

14 October 2016

The outlook for the labour market is key. While we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain in its recent range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.

The Forward View – Australia: October 2016
Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World

Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World

27 September 2016

Four hours before an estimate 100 million Americans tune in to watch the two wannabe leaders of the free world go head to head, and a Bloomberg poll published around 7pm Australian Eastern Time last night shows Clinton and Trump tied on 46%.

Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World
Markets Today: Up, up and away

Markets Today: Up, up and away

22 September 2016

It’s now a sea of green in the US equity markets in reaction to the Fed leaving rates on hold this morning, leaving the Fed funds rate at 0.25-0.50%, as nearly universally expected.

Markets Today: Up, up and away
Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over

Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over

21 September 2016

A rather measured night again in the lead up to the FOMC tomorrow morning and the BoJ meeting today where the Bank has been honing its thinking on policy to lift inflation.

Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over
Markets Today: Gasoline dreams

Markets Today: Gasoline dreams

20 September 2016

Markets have been tapping their fingers overnight in the lead up to the Fed meeting. Currencies have traded in very contained ranges, the USD only somewhat softer again with the US Treasury curve up 1-2 basis points for the session.

Markets Today: Gasoline dreams
Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics

Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics

19 September 2016

August U.S. CPI data turned out to be the driver of much of Friday night’s market price action. The 0.3% rise in the core CPI series pushed annual growth up to 2.3% from 2.2% - matching its post-recession cycle high and versus the 2.2% expected.

Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics
China Economic Update: September 2016

China Economic Update: September 2016

16 September 2016

The rust belt region has continued to underperform in recent times – as service focussed provinces have driven a greater share of China’s growth. In 2015, the three rust belt provinces were among the four weakest growing regions.

China Economic Update: September 2016
Markets Today: From zero to hero

Markets Today: From zero to hero

16 September 2016

During the US dollar’s recent revival associated with deteriorating global risk sentiment and steepening yield curves, the commodity currencies – in particular the AUD and NZD – have been the hardest hit.

Markets Today: From zero to hero
Markets Today: Calm waters

Markets Today: Calm waters

15 September 2016

Mental preparations for another onslaught of selling bonds and equities offshore were put on the backburner with markets becalmed overnight.

Markets Today: Calm waters
Markets Today: Uneasy

Markets Today: Uneasy

14 September 2016

Yesterday Brainard's comments appeased fears of an imminent hike in September, but concerns of a rising belief within the Fed that the benefit of keeping monetary policy accommodative is waning appears have left markets uneasy

Markets Today: Uneasy
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016

13 September 2016

The results from this month’s survey remain broadly consistent with our prior view of the economy and the near-term outlook. It points to a patchy, but sustained, improvement in the non-mining economy, with the major services sectors and construction leading the way.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016
Markets Today: Proud Mario

Markets Today: Proud Mario

9 September 2016

Three main developments overnight, a spike in oil prices, a somewhat more content ECB President, and a renewed AUD warning from RBA Governor Stevens in an AFR interview, the AUD in the wake of the interview pulling back from over 0.77 to 0.7642 this morning.

Markets Today: Proud Mario
Markets Today: Big up yourself

Markets Today: Big up yourself

8 September 2016

It has been a relatively quiet night for markets with the moves in GBP probably the major highlight. BoE Governor Carney faced the Treasury Select Committee in parliament and was quick to give himself a nice pat on the back for the bounce in business and consumer surveys in August.

Markets Today: Big up yourself
Markets Today: And then there were three

Markets Today: And then there were three

7 September 2016

The recent ramp up in Fed rhetoric aimed at putting the market on the scent of an imminent Fed funds rate hike took another blow last night following a sharp drop in the August ISM non-manufacturing index.

Markets Today: And then there were three
Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent

Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent

6 September 2016

In offshore markets depleted by the absence of the United States off for Labor Day, latest UK economic data and gyrations in the oil price captured most of the overnight headlines.

Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent
Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016

5 September 2016

This week, we thought we would focus on three themes: (i) Friday night’s US labour market data; (ii) this week’s upcoming Australian Q2 GDP data; and (iii) some thoughts on apartment settlements.

Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016
US Economic Update: September 2016

US Economic Update: September 2016

5 September 2016

Despite inflation remaining stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% goal, lower unemployment can still be expected to generate price pressures.

US Economic Update: September 2016
Markets Today: Jump (for my love)

Markets Today: Jump (for my love)

2 September 2016

Jump (for my love) was a classic 1980s hit by the Pointer Sisters and one suspects would be particularly high in the Spotify lists of several Fed officials after last night’s weaker than expected Manufacturing ISM.

Markets Today: Jump (for my love)
Markets Today: Spring time

Markets Today: Spring time

1 September 2016

One of the first things that I learned when I arrived in Australia a few years ago is that spring in southern hemisphere countries doesn’t start on the same day.

Markets Today: Spring time
Love thy neighbour

Love thy neighbour

31 August 2016

The trading partnership between Australia and New Zealand is a strong one. With the earliest trade agreement between the two countries dating back to 1922,

Love thy neighbour
Markets Today: Mixed emotions

Markets Today: Mixed emotions

30 August 2016

Apparently this 1989 hit by the Rolling Stones was written by Mick Jagger as a response to Keith Richards solo effort “You don’t move me”.

Markets Today: Mixed emotions
Markets Today: September Song

Markets Today: September Song

29 August 2016

Janet Yellen’s Friday morning appearance at Jackson Hole proved not to be the damp squib that many were expecting.

Markets Today: September Song
Markets Today: Speak now

Markets Today: Speak now

26 August 2016

In a night of still very contained major FX crosses, Fed commentary has started to kick in from Jackson Hole.

Markets Today: Speak now
Monthly Financial Markets Update: August 2016

Monthly Financial Markets Update: August 2016

25 August 2016

The “X factors” that had been dominating negative market views – bad debts in the Italian and Chinese banking system, terrorism, political issues and the rise of anti-globalisation – have given way to a “fear of missing out” rally.

Monthly Financial Markets Update: August 2016
Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson

Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson

25 August 2016

Only on line one and I already feel like I’m making this up, such is the state of market torpor in front of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and as Sothern England basks in 30 degree summer sunshine – and uncharacteristically not for the first time this year.

Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson
Markets Today: Poundcake

Markets Today: Poundcake

24 August 2016

It’s been a rather uneventful night for most of the major currencies, with the possible exception of Sterling.

Markets Today: Poundcake
Markets Today: Pulback

Markets Today: Pulback

23 August 2016

The rise in the USD and short dated UST yields on the back of Fed vice-chair Fisher's comments over the weekend have been partly unwound in the overnight session.

Markets Today: Pulback
Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing

Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing

22 August 2016

Friday looks to have shown FX traders to be the smartest guys in the room. Traditionally referred to as the ‘last market to clear’ (and so giving FX analysts such as this scribe a career) the dollar had put on a strong showing during the APAC session.

Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing
Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again

Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again

17 August 2016

It was an overnight session marked by two Fed speakers banging the drum (not as strongly as Keith Moon used to) warning that even the September 22 FOMC is not off the radar for a Fed rate increase.

Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again
India Monetary Policy – August 2016

India Monetary Policy – August 2016

16 August 2016

The RBI held the policy (Repo) rate at 6.5%, as expected. NAB Economics is forecasting a 25bp cut in rates to 6.25% in the December quarter, on expectation of softer food prices.

India Monetary Policy – August 2016
Markets Today: An American Trilogy

Markets Today: An American Trilogy

16 August 2016

Europe had a quiet day with many continental countries observing Assumption day. The Stoxx 600 index ended the day flat and the FTSE100 climbed 0.36% aided by another move lower in Sterling.

Markets Today: An American Trilogy
Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition

Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition

15 August 2016

The Housing Market Report is your guide to the current home value trends in Australia. You’ll find information about what’s happened over the last 12 months, as well as NAB’s expectations of where prices are headed in the near future.

Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition
Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back

Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back

15 August 2016

The previous Friday’s strong US payrolls report has become a somewhat hazy memory after a much softer than expected retail sales report on Friday that challenged prevailing confidence that the US consumer has entered Q3 in rude health.

Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back
China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016

China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016

12 August 2016

A rebound in real estate investment, new construction activity and industrial demand for related products – such as steel and cement – helped to underpin economic growth in the first half of 2016.

China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016
Improving Community Connections – August 2016

Improving Community Connections – August 2016

11 August 2016

Through our research on wellbeing Australians have told us that they believe it is important for them to feel “connected” with their local community. But how connected do they really feel and what would they change within their communities to improve their sense of personal wellbeing?

Improving Community Connections – August 2016
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016

11 August 2016

Sentiment in the retail commercial property market has risen to its highest level in over six years. However, strong retail market confidence was not enough to offset the lower sentiment recorded across the office, industrial and CBD hotels sectors. Overall, the NAB Commercial Property Index fell 7 points to +5 in the second quarter of this year.

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016
Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?

Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?

11 August 2016

In delivering only 25bps cut to the OCR and which was more than 100% discounted ahead of time and the RBNZ’s latest 90-day bill track only implying one more cut, the NZD has predictably bounced sharply. It up just over 1% as we go to press.

Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016

10 August 2016

Global financial markets have digested the latest shock – the UK’s “Brexit” vote – quite well. In Australia, business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016
Markets Today: Relax

Markets Today: Relax

10 August 2016

The overnight session was neither strongly risk-on nor risk-off; the AUD has been testing higher levels overnight with the big dollar sold lower during the US session.

Markets Today: Relax
NAB change in cash rate call:  August 2016

NAB change in cash rate call: August 2016

9 August 2016

At its August meeting, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 1.5% (against our expectations) following a similarly-sized 25bp cut in May. Major banks have since passed on some, but not all, of the easing through to lending rates.

NAB change in cash rate call:  August 2016
NAB Monthly Business Survey:  July 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2016

9 August 2016

Business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey, with firms choosing to remain focussed on the positive trends within their own business.

NAB Monthly Business Survey:  July 2016
Markets Today: Breathe

Markets Today: Breathe

9 August 2016

Breathe was Prodigy’s bestselling album in the UK despite the fact that radio play was restricted to the evening shows and although it would be hard to make any link with the song lyrics and market events.

Markets Today: Breathe
Markets Today: Working Man

Markets Today: Working Man

8 August 2016

There wasn’t much not to like about Friday’s July US payrolls report, the 255k rise in headline payrolls enhanced by 18k worth of upward revision to May and June and meaning that well over half a million more Americans are in work compared to just two months ago.

Markets Today: Working Man
Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger

Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger

5 August 2016

It was pretty much all about the Bank of England overnight ahead of payrolls tonight. As my colleague from London Nick Parsons reminded us, there was the real potential for the BoE to over-promise and under-deliver, net GBP shorts according to IMM data at the greatest level of this series.

Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – June 2016

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – June 2016

3 August 2016

National Australia Bank’s latest Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) shows online spending grew by 13.5% in the 12 months to June 2016. While still strong, growth has flattened from the year-on-year growth seen back in 2011 when the index was first established.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – June 2016
Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want

Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want

3 August 2016

It was a toss-up this morning between the Rolling Stones classic and “You Can’t Hold a Good Man Down” by James and Bobby Purify (et al), both in reference (or deference) to the performance of the Aussie dollar in the aftermath of yesterday’s RBA rate cut.

Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want
Australian Markets Weekly:  1 August 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 1 August 2016

2 August 2016

The market has continued to price toward the likelihood that the RBA will cut rates again at tomorrow’s Board meeting, pricing in this morning a 64% chance of an easing, with 36 of 47 economists surveyed by Reuters on Friday forecasting a cut this week.

Australian Markets Weekly:  1 August 2016
US Economic Update: 2016 Q2 GDP

US Economic Update: 2016 Q2 GDP

2 August 2016

In the June quarter 2016, US GDP grew by an annualised 1.2% qoq. This was a little stronger than the 0.8% qoq growth recorded in the March quarter, but still a relatively soft rate of growth and below expectations.

US Economic Update: 2016 Q2 GDP
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take it easy

2 August 2016

Released overnight, the US ISM Manufacturing release for July was barely a miss, coming in at 52.6 against consensus of 53.0.

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: How deep is your growth?

Markets Today: How deep is your growth?

1 August 2016

Weaker than expected US economic growth for the June quarter after an underwhelming outcome from the Bank of Japan on Friday set the tone for markets on Friday and at the open today.

Markets Today: How deep is your growth?
Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2016

Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2016

29 July 2016

It was a difficult month for equities with an initial sell off in early June, following the release of weak jobs growth figures in the United States and another decline later in the month following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2016
Markets Today: Gimme Gimme Gimme (Stimulus)

Markets Today: Gimme Gimme Gimme (Stimulus)

29 July 2016

Gimme Gimme Gimme was ABBA’s most successful hit in Japan, reaching No.17 on the billboard charts in 1979. It might be time to dust that record off today ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting decision at around 12.45pm AEST.

Markets Today: Gimme Gimme Gimme (Stimulus)
NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016

NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016

28 July 2016

The NAB SME Survey revealed very strong results across a wide range of indicators in Q2, suggesting that the non-mining recovery is broadening to include smaller businesses.

NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016
Markets Today: Rumours

Markets Today: Rumours

28 July 2016

The revelation that the underlying CPI was not another repeat of the first quarter when growth was an anaemic 0.2% but pushed up this quarter to 0.5% had the market rethinking and repricing whether the RBA was indeed more likely than not to cut rates again next week.

Markets Today: Rumours
In Focus: Pulses – July 2016

In Focus: Pulses – July 2016

26 July 2016

In this report we present a strong outlook for Australian pulses production, reflecting the exceedingly favourable season so far and greater plantings for some varieties.

In Focus: Pulses – July 2016
Markets Today: Suspicious minds

Markets Today: Suspicious minds

26 July 2016

After seven years without a hit, Elvis Presley reclaimed his title of “The King” following the release of Suspicious Minds.

Markets Today: Suspicious minds
Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week

Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week

25 July 2016

US equities indices edged a little bit higher on Friday despite mixed corporate earnings while European equities ended the day practically unchanged despite the fact that European Flash PMIs for July were better than expected.

Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week
Infrastructure bonds: A missing market for retail investors?

Infrastructure Bonds: A missing market For retail investors?

22 July 2016

This is the sixth in a series of reports prepared by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies for National Australia Bank aimed at explaining the potential role of corporate bonds in retail investor portfolios and promoting growth of the corporate bond market.

Infrastructure bonds: A missing market for retail investors?
Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer

Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer

22 July 2016

The ECB’s policy meeting has come and gone without any policy action, though none was expected. At 1.1025, the EUR sits where it was late yesterday in the wake of some intra-session ECB meeting volatility.

Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer
NAB Quarterly Business Survey:  June 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2016

21 July 2016

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides valuable insight into Australian business, and offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey:  June 2016
State Economic Handbook:  July 2016

State Economic Handbook: July 2016

21 July 2016

Solid growth across the large south-eastern states has become increasingly entrenched over the past year, while difficult conditions in the mining sector are having a more pervasive impact across Western Australia, the Northern Territory and parts of Queensland.

State Economic Handbook:  July 2016
Markets Today: Feeling good

Markets Today: Feeling good

21 July 2016

As we are about to press the send button, the RBNZ has just released it economic update and although a dovish tone was expected, the NZD has dropped 25/30pips to around 0.6988.

Markets Today: Feeling good
Markets Today: Strange brew

Markets Today: Strange brew

20 July 2016

Yesterday’s RBA Minutes with its dovish take and concerns about the activity side of the economy saw the local rates market move to price in a higher above-50% probability of an August RBA move (from 59% to 63%).

Markets Today: Strange brew
Markets Today: Quiet times

Markets Today: Quiet times

19 July 2016

In a quiet session US and UK equity indices edged a little bit higher buoyed by technology and financial shares while European indices drifted lower weighted down by energy shares following a sharp drop in oil prices.

Markets Today: Quiet times
U.S. Economic Update: July 2016

U.S. Economic Update: July 2016

18 July 2016

Primarily driven by very strong consumption growth, activity looks to have picked up in the June quarter, after a sluggish start to the year.

U.S. Economic Update: July 2016
Markets Today: Crying Shame

Markets Today: Crying Shame

18 July 2016

News of the (now failed) attempted military coup attempt in Turkey started filtering though about half an hour before the US stock market close, too late to have much impact on cash indices which closed fairly flat but early enough to see the S&P500 futures lose 0.4% after the NYSE close

Markets Today: Crying Shame
China Economic Update:  July 2016

China Economic Update: July 2016

15 July 2016

Despite decades of change, China’s State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are a specific segment of the economy that still requires substantial reform.

China Economic Update:  July 2016
NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016

NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016

15 July 2016

Housing sentiment softens but still positive. Victoria and Queensland expected to provide the best capital returns in the next 1-2 years as prices continue falling in WA. Overall demand from foreign buyers continues to shrink as buyers retreat from Queensland and re-focus towards Victoria.

NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016
Markets Today: I’m so tired

Markets Today: I’m so tired

14 July 2016

In 1968 John Lennon wrote this Beatles song after three weeks of meditation with Indian Gurus, equity markets have been on a tear for four days and now in a similar way they are also showing signs of fatigue.

Markets Today: I’m so tired
Markets Today: The only way is up

Markets Today: The only way is up

13 July 2016

Risk assets had another positive night boosted by the prospects of a new round of stimulus in some major economies and the removal of at least one source of UK political uncertainty.

Markets Today: The only way is up
Brexit and World Growth

Brexit and World Growth

12 July 2016

In our latest global forecast update we revised down our United Kingdom (UK) year-average GDP growth forecasts in the wake of the UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) – so called Brexit.

Brexit and World Growth
Markets Today: 2 Become 1

Markets Today: 2 Become 1

12 July 2016

Anna Leadsom has stood down as a candidate for leadership of the UK Conservative Party, paving the way for Home Secretary Theresa May to be the next Prime Minister, expected to be formally installed Wednesday after PM Cameron’s resignation.

Markets Today: 2 Become 1
Markets Today: Career Opportunities

Markets Today: Career Opportunities

11 July 2016

he US non-farm payrolls headline rise of 287k comfortably exceeded expectations (180k) but wasn’t backed up by the subsidiary details in the report with the unemployment rate higher, small net downward revision to the prior two months payrolls and hourly earnings up just 0.1%.

Markets Today: Career Opportunities
Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)

Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)

8 July 2016

It was an eventful news day for the AUD yesterday, even if the currency was little changed, and is not breaking new ground this morning, S&P yesterday changing the outlook on Australia’s AAA rating from stable to negative.

Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)
Markets Today: Selling England by the pound

Markets Today: Selling England by the pound

7 July 2016

Genesis’ 1973 album laments the loss of English folk culture and increasing American influence. 43 years on, England can now have back as much of the former as it cares for, but has to hope it can look forward to even more of the latter.

Markets Today: Selling England by the pound
Markets Today: Low

Markets Today: Low

6 July 2016

Core global yields have made new record lows amid an increase in risk aversion following news that a number of UK asset managers led by Standard Life were suspending redemptions on their property funds.

Markets Today: Low
Markets Today: Too close to call

Markets Today: Too close to call

4 July 2016

The outcome from this weekend’s Australian election remains too close to call. This uncertainty and lack of a clear majority has had a mild negative influence on the AUD/USD at the open.

Markets Today: Too close to call
Markets Today: Waves

Markets Today: Waves

1 July 2016

As a BBC commentator described it this morning, providing it doesn’t violate the laws of thermodynamics, anything can happen inside the British Conservative Party.

Markets Today: Waves
Rural Commodities Wrap:  June 16

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 16

30 June 2016

Our expectations for prices in the coming year are underpinned by our forecasts for a generally lower AUD, tracking in the high 60s range in late 2016 and 2017.

Rural Commodities Wrap:  June 16
Brexit ignites global uncertainty – but it’s not another GFC

Brexit ignites global uncertainty – but it’s not another GFC

29 June 2016

With the Brexit vote we expect markets to push lower over coming weeks until investors feel appropriately compensated for these heightened risks. We see post Global Financial Crisis share market sell-offs as a useful guide for what is likely over coming weeks.

Brexit ignites global uncertainty – but it’s not another GFC
Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place

Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place

29 June 2016

Whether it’s a near to end-quarter rebalancing or just some short-term perceived value after the knee-jerk post-Brexit sell off, risk appetite had something of a positive session overnight with equities and top-tier bond yields higher.

Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place
Monthly Financial Markets & Asset Allocation Update: June 2016

Monthly Financial Markets & Asset Allocation Update: June 2016

28 June 2016

Brexit is a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, with associated uncertainty. Investors will need compensation for this with lower share prices. We believe a 15% global equity sell-off over the next 6-8 weeks is a reasonable base case.

Monthly Financial Markets & Asset Allocation Update: June 2016
Markets Today: Another Pounding

Markets Today: Another Pounding

28 June 2016

Equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic ended the day sharply lower, the British Pound fell another 3.6% and demand for safe haven assets boosted gold and dragged core global yields lower.

Markets Today: Another Pounding
Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E

Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E

27 June 2016

Lows for the day on Friday in all things GBP and AUD and highs for the USD and US Treasury prices came early to mid-afternoon Australian time almost as soon as it became clear the UK had voted for Brexit.

Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E
Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over

Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over

24 June 2016

Despite stormy weather in London and the south east, turnout has been reported to be high and although markets appear to have ‘Remain ‘ as the most likely outcome, recent history suggests that voting outcomes don’t always end as expected.

Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over
The sharing economy

The sharing economy

23 June 2016

Alan Oster discusses the influence of the sharing economy and explores how fast it is growing and its impact on the business community.

The sharing economy
Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now

Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now

23 June 2016

Pink Floyd’s 1979 song featured on The Wall tells the story of a couple who have treated each other very badly yet are devastated at the prospect of their relationship ending. This seems somewhat appropriate with us now just 9 hours away from polling getting underway in the UK EU referendum.

Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now
Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow

Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow

22 June 2016

Ahead of Thursday’s UK referendum, Yellen’s testimony to the Senate banking committee was the second big event of the week. Unsurprisingly, however, we got a similar message to the one we got from last week’s FOMC.

Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow
Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?

Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?

21 June 2016

The risk-on mood that developed as Asia markets opened yesterday on the back of the weekend poll from the Sunday Mirror pointing to a swing back to the remain vote gathered more force overnight, especially in European markets.

Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?
China Economic Update: 20 June 2016

China Economic Update: 20 June 2016

20 June 2016

China’s longer term growth prospects are dependent on a range of economic reforms – critical to supporting the broad based productivity growth necessary to offset the negative demographic effects from the country’s declining working aged population.

China Economic Update: 20 June 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016

20 June 2016

Brexit and local farm conditions too Thursday’s UK EU Referendum will occupy market attention this week. A poll being conducted by ComRes for the UK Sunday Mirror at the time news of the assassination of British MP Jo Cox hit the wires revealed a switch in voting favouring the remain vote. The percentage of those […]

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016
Markets Today: Thursday

Markets Today: Thursday

20 June 2016

Markets being what they are, last Thursday’s tragic news of the slaying of UK MP Jo Cox, campaigning on behalf of the ‘remain’ side in front of Thursday’s EU referendum, elicited a strong positive response in all things Sterling, as well as supporting risk sentiment more broadly.

Markets Today: Thursday
Markets Today: A night of two halves

Markets Today: A night of two halves

17 June 2016

Yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei and strengthening of the Yen on the back of BoJ inaction and heightened concerns around the outcome of the UK EU referendum set the tone to the early part of the overnight session.

Markets Today: A night of two halves
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take it easy

16 June 2016

The US Fed kept its policy rate unchanged (between 0.25% and 0.50%) as expected, however the tone of the statement and forecast revealed a more dovish stance.

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: Signs

Markets Today: Signs

15 June 2016

As US markets close and Asia opens this morning, further damage to sentiment has been relatively limited.

Markets Today: Signs
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016

14 June 2016

This month’s NAB Business Survey remains true to theme of ongoing recovery in the non-mining economy, building on the already solid growth seen in the recent National Accounts.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016
Markets Today: The Fear

Markets Today: The Fear

14 June 2016

Friday night, Sterling was hit hard soon after London had shut shop for the week, on the publication of an (internet) poll by ORB of over 2000 respondents for the UK Independent newspaper, showing a 55/45 split in favour of ‘Leave’.

Markets Today: The Fear
Markets Today: Low

Markets Today: Low

10 June 2016

Rebel One being BTMFJ who were reported to be on the verge of rescinding their JGB Primary Dealership and Rebel Two being Commerzbank, reported to be considering storing cash in vaults rather than pay the ECB for the privilege of depositing excess cash with them.

Markets Today: Low
Markets Today: Rebellion

Markets Today: Rebellion

9 June 2016

We are now seeing signs in other parts of the world of rebellion by private sector banks aimed at circumventing the deleterious effects of negative central bank policy rates and government bond yields.

Markets Today: Rebellion
India GDP Q1 2016

India GDP Q1 2016

8 June 2016

The Indian economy expanded by 7.9% in the final (March 2016) quarter of the 2015-16 financial year; India is now the fastest-growing major economy.

India GDP Q1 2016
Markets Today: Walking away

Markets Today: Walking away

7 June 2016

US equities ended day up between 0.5% and 0.65% with energy stocks leading the way on the back of gains in oil prices.

Markets Today: Walking away
Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!

Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!

6 June 2016

Looking at the spectrum of forecasts ahead of the release, the 38k print for May was 52k lower than the lowest forecast surveyed by Bloomberg while consensus was at 160k.

Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!
Markets Today: Keep the dream alive

Markets Today: Keep the dream alive

2 June 2016

The final May Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were left unrevised at 51.5, while the US Manufacturing ISM headline popped a little higher to 51.3 from 50.8 (50.3 was forecast).

Markets Today: Keep the dream alive
Markets Today: Hesitant

Markets Today: Hesitant

1 June 2016

Markets ended the month of May in a cautious mood amid mixed US data and a Guardian poll that suggested Britain to be more in favour of leaving the EU.

Markets Today: Hesitant
Markets Today: Hold on

Markets Today: Hold on

31 May 2016

As far as the foreign exchange markets were concerned, the USD was a touch softer overnight after having made some gains in the Asia session yesterday.

Markets Today: Hold on
Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016

30 May 2016

The past week has seen interest rate markets continue to receive warnings from various Fed speakers – including Fed Chair Yellen – that US interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months.

Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016
Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps

Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps

30 May 2016

In her much awaited Harvard University appearance, Fed Chair Yellen endorsed recent Fed rhetoric, noting that it would be “appropriate” for the Fed to raise the Funds rate if economic growth picked up as expected and the labour market continued to improve.

Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps
Markets Today: Inch by inch

Markets Today: Inch by inch

26 May 2016

It’s been another night of measured markets with both European and US equities closing higher, US Treasury yields a little higher net on the day and the USD marking time. There has been a little more evident appetite for Sterling, while the Canadian dollar was also a little stronger, helped by higher oil prices and the Bank of Canada leaving rates on hold, as expected.

Markets Today: Inch by inch
Markets Today: Bullish Mood

Markets Today: Bullish Mood

25 May 2016

US and European equity indices had a solid night with gains in financial and technology shares leading the move higher. The USD was stronger against most other currencies although GBP was the outperformer. Meanwhile US Treasury yields ended the day higher along the curve.

Markets Today: Bullish Mood
Monthly Financial Markets Update – May 2016

Monthly Financial Markets Update – May 2016

24 May 2016

In most of the major economies the outlook remains fragile, as a result of political uncertainty and disappointing earnings results. However recovery in equity prices has continued into April, primarily to the bounce in commodity prices and supportive central banks.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – May 2016
Markets Today: Sailing

Markets Today: Sailing

24 May 2016

Markets have been generally drifting with FX, equity markets and bond yields trading in contained ranges. The short end of the US Treasury curve edged a little higher.

Markets Today: Sailing
Markets Today: Back to black

Markets Today: Back to black

23 May 2016

European and US equities ended the week in positive territory and the mild positive tone to the overnight session helped the S&P 500 move back to black for 2016.

Markets Today: Back to black
Markets Today: On the prowl

Markets Today: On the prowl

19 May 2016

It was the release this morning of the FOMC April Minutes that’s gotten the attention of the wires and a noticeable chunk of market reaction to boot in rates, currencies, equities and gold.

Markets Today: On the prowl
Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk

Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk

18 May 2016

US equities fell overnight and the US Treasury curve flattened to its lowest level since 2007 after solid data and hawkish Fed talk increased market’s expectations of US rate hikes.

Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk
Markets Today: Life’s a gas

Markets Today: Life’s a gas

17 May 2016

Be grateful for small mercies. It’s a good job this 1971 T.Rex classic popped into my head as I was alighting at Wynyard station this morning, or else you might have been subjected to the ultra-cringe-worthy 1968 Dolly Parton ditty, “I’ll oil well love you” (I kid you not).

Markets Today: Life’s a gas
Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016

16 May 2016

It was a quieter week for Australian markets after the previous week’s very large moves. The Australian dollar still ended the week lower, as markets continued to speculate that the RBA will follow up with another interest rate cut in the months ahead and as Chinese economic data disappointed.

Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016
Markets Today: China Matters

Markets Today: China Matters

13 May 2016

In a shock revelation, the Dallas Fed has published a note on its website saying that the impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades.

Markets Today: China Matters
Markets Today: No retail therapy

Markets Today: No retail therapy

12 May 2016

The rise in oil prices overnight were not enough to prevent retail driven decline in US equity markets. The US dollar was weaker across the board and a solid 10y US Treasury auction amid a cautious mood helped core global yields move lower.

Markets Today: No retail therapy
Markets Today: Kiwi

Markets Today: Kiwi

11 May 2016

The US Energy Information Agency revised up its forecasts for oil prices for this year and next, lifting its forecast for WTI for this year by nearly $6/bbl to $40.32 from $34.37.

Markets Today: Kiwi
Budget 2016-17: Agriculture

Budget 2016-17: Agriculture

4 May 2016

The 2016-17 Budget includes a number of measures for agriculture, relating to water and drought, infrastructure, innovation and trade as well as revenue and savings measures.

Budget 2016-17: Agriculture
Markets Today: Smash & Grab

Markets Today: Smash & Grab

4 May 2016

No, the title is not a summation of Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison’s first Budget handed down last night. Rather it looks to be the most apt description of market price action – in FX at least – apropos the smart overnight session reversal in the fortunes of the Japanese Yen and the Euro.

Markets Today: Smash & Grab
Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?

Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?

3 May 2016

While yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei, partly reflected a catch up move given Friday’s holiday in Japan, this negative sentiment spread throughout Asia with all markets excluding Thailand posting small decline for the day.

Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?
Markets Today: Debbie Downer

Markets Today: Debbie Downer

2 May 2016

The 2004 Saturday Night Live fictional character, recently brought back to life in song on Cortney Barnett's brilliant debut album, would have been in her element on Friday.

Markets Today: Debbie Downer
Australian exports to East Asia

Australian exports to East Asia

29 April 2016

NAB surveyed Australian business integration with East Asia in September 2014 and China in December 2015. Recent headline trade data indicate a reversal in the decades-long process of growing integration with our region as exports have declined.

Australian exports to East Asia
US Economic Update, 2016Q1 GDP

US Economic Update, 2016Q1 GDP

29 April 2016

Quarterly U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to a weak 0.1% qoq, or 0.5% annualised in the March quarter. As the same quarter last year was also weak, there was little change in the over-the-year growth rate which has been around 2% for the last three quarters.

US Economic Update, 2016Q1 GDP
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016

28 April 2016

Australian consumers spent an estimated $19.3 billion online in the past year, primarily on homewares, groceries, media and fashion. According to National Australia Bank’s (NAB) latest Online Retail Sales Index in-depth report, online spending increased 12.4% over the last year.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016
RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May

RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May

27 April 2016

Today’s CPI produced the lowest quarterly and annual rates of core inflation recorded since the RBA commenced inflation targeting - and rates that are starting to diverge below the lower end of the Bank’s target band.

RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2016

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2016

27 April 2016

Sentiment in Australian commercial property markets softened a little, but remains well above long-term average levels. Despite some pull back, CBD hotels and office markets continue leading the way, with NSW still at the forefront by state and WA floundering.

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2016
Markets Today: Bend me, shape me

Markets Today: Bend me, shape me

27 April 2016

While the market is very sensitive to the CPI and the AUD and rates markets might see an immediate knee-jerk reaction, the market is not hanging on this number as one that might swing the RBA into action or inaction at upcoming meetings.

Markets Today: Bend me, shape me
Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016

26 April 2016

Tomorrow’s CPI will be another low print but unlikely to sway the RBA into easing monetary policy given the continued resilience in the non-mining economy. NAB’s forecast for the March quarter CPI is for Australia’s official inflation rate to be 1.6% y/y (after 1.7% in Q4), the sixth quarter below the 2-3% official RBA target range.

Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016
Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2016

Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2016

22 April 2016

In our April update, Nick Ryder, JBWere Investment Strategist, highlights that the local equity market faces a number of headwinds from the rise in the AUD, lower commodity prices, higher potential bank capital requirements and profit margin pressures.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2016
Markets Today: When doves cry

Markets Today: When doves cry

22 April 2016

The AUD has flown back down with the 77 handle this morning, pulled back somewhat by a dip in oil prices for once, WTI down $0.59 to $43.60 and Brent off $0.91 to $44.89, the Aussie’s commodity cousins, the CAD, NOK, RUB and the NZD all lower this morning.

Markets Today: When doves cry
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016

21 April 2016

The March quarter NAB Business Survey shows both a resilient non-mining recovery and an outlook that has continued to improve. Both business conditions and confidence remained at levels similar to that seen in the previous quarter.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016
Markets Today: Distillate thrust

Markets Today: Distillate thrust

21 April 2016

Oil prices took another leg higher last night following a US Energy Information Administration report that showed a sharp decline in US distillate stockpiles.

Markets Today: Distillate thrust
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016

20 April 2016

Our forecasts point to Australian agricultural prices trending generally somewhat higher in AUD terms this year, despite challenging international conditions. However, the stronger AUD presents a risk to local prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016
Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle

Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle

20 April 2016

Broad USD dollar weakness and higher oil prices have boosted risk assets overnight with energy and material shares the outperformers in both Europe and the US.

Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle
Markets Today: No dice

Markets Today: No dice

18 April 2016

Regardless of whether an agreement yesterday by major producers to freeze oil production would have had any meaningful impact on oil prices beyond the psychological boost it might have provided.

Markets Today: No dice
NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016

NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016

15 April 2016

2016 is shaping up to be a crucial year for copper producers and copper markets. Its biggest consumer, China, is going through a period of slower economic growth, with structural transitions under way and a depreciating currency.

NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016
Markets Today: The only way is up

Markets Today: The only way is up

14 April 2016

Risky assets have continued to benefit from an improvement in sentiment. Bank stocks have led the surge in equity markets and most commodities have also enjoyed some gains, despite of a pullback in oil prices.

Markets Today: The only way is up
How Australian business views the sharing economy

How Australian business views the sharing economy

13 April 2016

The sharing economy is growing at a rapid rate, as new business models based on ‘access to’ rather than ‘ownership of’ physical and human assets like skills, time and space, continue to emerge.

How Australian business views the sharing economy
India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016

India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016

13 April 2016

The April 5th Monetary policy meeting was a landmark in terms of the policy measures announced. The 25bp cut in the policy rate was accompanied by a raft of measures to boost liquidity and ensure more effective monetary transmission by banks.

India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016
Markets Today: Taking care of business

Markets Today: Taking care of business

13 April 2016

Yesterday’s NAB Business Survey bolted a stronger 76 handle on to the AUD, the currency finding support through the day and again overnight, trading this morning toward the top of its overnight range, currently at 0.7685/90, up 1.2%.

Markets Today: Taking care of business
Markets Today: Lack of conviction

Markets Today: Lack of conviction

12 April 2016

European markets ended the day in positive territory boosted by Italian banks following hopes of a government support package while in the US, equity indices erased early gains and ended the day marginally lower.

Markets Today: Lack of conviction
Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar

Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar

11 April 2016

A fairly uneventful offshore session on Friday saw US stocks recover some of Thursday’s losses, bond yields pushing back higher while the US dollar was softer across the board.

Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar
Markets Today: Send in the Clowns

Markets Today: Send in the Clowns

8 April 2016

Sorry, I couldn’t resist the title seeing as how Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker are all about to jump up on stage together.

Markets Today: Send in the Clowns
Markets Today: June is alive

Markets Today: June is alive

7 April 2016

An improvement in risk appetite has helped global equity markets recovered some grown overnight with the Nikkei a notable exception. FOMC minutes revealed an April hike was discussed, but a cautious approach appears to be well entrenched. A pick up in oil prices contributed to the positive move, but the strength in the yen continues to weigh on Japan’s equity market.

Markets Today: June is alive
Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night

Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night

6 April 2016

Local market’s finished up on Tuesday in a distinctly ‘risk-off’ frame of mind, and that sentiment has extended throughout the European and US sessions

Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night
Markets Today: Wait and see mode

Markets Today: Wait and see mode

5 April 2016

In what was a quiet night for markets the softness in oil prices spread into other commodities and it has weighted on the AUD and other commodity related currencies.

Markets Today: Wait and see mode
US Economic Update – 4 April 2016

US Economic Update – 4 April 2016

4 April 2016

In last month’s Update we noted that after a soft end to 2015, the partial indicators were pointing to a turnaround. Some new data (for February) and some hefty revisions to historical data later, March quarter 2016 GDP growth is now tracking at only 0.7% qoq (annualised) according to the Atlanta Fed’s ‘Nowcast’.

US Economic Update – 4 April 2016
Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy

Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy

4 April 2016

There was nothing not to like about Friday’s US data deluge. Payrolls just beat expectations at 215k vs. 205k with trivial revisions.

Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy
Markets Today: Handle with care

Markets Today: Handle with care

1 April 2016

It’s been a night of consolidation in the main as markets await the arrival of key data over the next 24 hours with Super Friday’s deluge.

Markets Today: Handle with care
Markets Today: Afterglow

Markets Today: Afterglow

31 March 2016

Equities and non-US dollar currencies continue to bask in the afterglow of Janet Yellen’s Tuesday night speech.

Markets Today: Afterglow
Markets Today: Easy does it

Markets Today: Easy does it

30 March 2016

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has reiterated her views that it is appropriate for the Fed to “proceed cautiously” in raising interest rates.

Markets Today: Easy does it
Markets Today: Drift away

Markets Today: Drift away

24 March 2016

The commodity currencies were sold lower overnight, with the AUD feeling the brunt of the selling.

Markets Today: Drift away
Strategy: investment timing and analysis

Strategy: investment timing and analysis

23 March 2016

Understanding the structure of different investment options is key to choosing what’s right for your objectives and risk profile. Sally Campbell from JBWere, explains the benefits of the main types of product you can include in your portfolio.

Strategy: investment timing and analysis
Markets Today: Night moves

Markets Today: Night moves

23 March 2016

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech yesterday came and went without any fanfare as far as AUD comment was concerned

Markets Today: Night moves
Monthly Financial Markets Update – March 2016

Monthly Financial Markets Update – March 2016

22 March 2016

In our March update, Nick Ryder, NAB Private Wealth Investment Strategist, talks mixed messages with slumps in developed markets, India and China while the US posted slight improvements and Australia performed reasonably well. Meanwhile, Europe’s inflation entered negative territory.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – March 2016
Australian Markets Weekly – 21 March 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 21 March 2016

21 March 2016

Labour market suggests RBA on hold but keep an eye on inflation expectations Markets again moving around sharply with a less aggressive Fed (two rate hikes now expected in 2016 versus four previously) seeing the US$ broadly weaker and $A stronger. Australian labour market data show slower trend employment growth in recent months, though some […]

Australian Markets Weekly – 21 March 2016
Australian housing market update – March 2016

Australian housing market update – March 2016

18 March 2016

The first two months of the year have seen the housing market regain some of the losses recorded over the final quarter of 2015, with capital city dwelling values rising by half a percent in February following a 0.9% rise in January to take our hedonic index 1.4% higher over the year to date.

Australian housing market update – March 2016
China Economic Update:  March 2016

China Economic Update: March 2016

15 March 2016

Casting a wider net over China’s total debt Last month, we highlighted China’s debt as one of the key concerns around its economy in 2016. Debt levels have risen sharply since the Global Financial Crisis, particularly outside the traditional banking system – where the scale of borrowings is frequently under-estimated. This month, we’re digging a […]

China Economic Update:  March 2016
Markets Today: Kiwi dumped

Markets Today: Kiwi dumped

10 March 2016

This morning the RBNZ cut its policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% and it signal that further easing may be required.

Markets Today: Kiwi dumped
Housing Market Report – Summer Edition

Housing Market Report – Summer Edition

9 March 2016

The Housing Market Report is your guide to the current home value trends in Australia. You’ll find information about what’s happened over the last 12 months, as well as NAB’s expectations of where prices are headed in the near future.

Housing Market Report – Summer Edition
NAB Wellbeing Report: Q4 2015

NAB Wellbeing Report: Q4 2015

7 March 2016

In this report, we take a look at longer term wellbeing trends, focussing on those groups that have historically reported the lowest wellbeing.

NAB Wellbeing Report: Q4 2015
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take It Easy

7 March 2016

We weren’t alone on Friday thinking that the risks heading into the US employment report were for a disappointing headline non-farm payrolls print

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: Power trip

Markets Today: Power trip

4 March 2016

It has not been a massive night in terms of market direction, the Australian dollar again capturing interest and making some further net gains.

Markets Today: Power trip
Markets Today: ISM boost

Markets Today: ISM boost

2 March 2016

China’s decision to reduce the required reserve ratio on major banks (-50bps) set the tone in yesterday’s Asian session

Markets Today: ISM boost
Markets Today: Weasel words

Markets Today: Weasel words

29 February 2016

Plenty of official hand-wringing regarding downside risks to global growth and which was reflected in the communique issued on Saturday after the 2-day G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Shanghai.

Markets Today: Weasel words
FW: Markets Today: Back in black

FW: Markets Today: Back in black

25 February 2016

It was a session of two halves with a risk off during European session spilling into the first part of the New York sessio/

FW: Markets Today: Back in black
Number crunch: Business innovation

Number crunch: Business innovation

23 February 2016

Innovation is a key driver of business success. It’s typically defined by a firm’s knowledge of the market and customers, constant process reviews, learning from failures and passion and drive.

Number crunch: Business innovation
Asset Allocation Insight – February 2016

Asset Allocation Insight – February 2016

18 February 2016

In this discussion of alternative investments, Nick Ryder explains that the increased weighting in this asset class is the result of less attractive prices in traditional asset classes.

Asset Allocation Insight – February 2016
Markets Today: Carry on

Markets Today: Carry on

18 February 2016

It was something of a risk-on night with commodity and emerging market currencies back in favour for once.

Markets Today: Carry on
The USA trade bonanza

The USA trade bonanza

16 February 2016

The United States of America (US) is the economic powerhouse of the world, with its largest and richest consumer market. Last year marked the 10th anniversary of the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA), which came into force in January 2005.

The USA trade bonanza
Markets Today: Rebound

Markets Today: Rebound

15 February 2016

European and US equity indices ended the week on a positive note, boosted by a rebound in bank stocks and a jump in oil prices.

Markets Today: Rebound
Markets Today:  Pushmi-pullyu

Markets Today: Pushmi-pullyu

11 February 2016

If we had to try and summarise the best part of three hours of testimony before Congress by Fed chair Janet Yellen in one sentence, it would be something like “Janet fails to go full dove”.

Markets Today:  Pushmi-pullyu
Markets Today: Carnage

Markets Today: Carnage

9 February 2016

Yeap, the heading says it all. We had a brutal price action overnight with risk assets hammered while safe haven assets were bid.

Markets Today: Carnage
Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life

Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life

5 February 2016

In the words of my BNZ colleague Jason Wong, not even strong words by ECB President Draghi and BOJ Governor Kuroda have been enough to talk down their currencies against the big dollar’s recent dip.

Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life
Oil Market Update – February 2016

Oil Market Update – February 2016

4 February 2016

Since early November, oil prices have resumed a clear downward trend, punctuated by episodes of sharp declines during early to mid- December and the first half of January.

Oil Market Update – February 2016
Markets Today: Stalled

Markets Today: Stalled

2 February 2016

Friday’s BoJ powered equity rally stalled overnight with disappointing data releases and fading hopes of output cuts in oil weighted down on sentiment.

Markets Today: Stalled
Markets Today: I walk the line

Markets Today: I walk the line

28 January 2016

The FOMC post meeting statement played a very straight bat, not locking themselves in to one course or the other as far as the March 17 meeting decision is concerned.

Markets Today: I walk the line
The World on Two Pages – January 2016

The World on Two Pages – January 2016

27 January 2016

2016 got off to a bad start in global equity and commodity markets and in light of recent financial market turmoil in Australia, the NAB Monthly Business Survey provides a timely indication of how market movements have so far affected business sentiment.

The World on Two Pages – January 2016
Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?

Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?

25 January 2016

Oil having been the main driver of most of the market price action of the past two weeks, it was Friday’s near 10% rebound that was the catalyst for much of Friday’s retracements.

Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?
Markets Today: Runaway train

Markets Today: Runaway train

21 January 2016

Another volatile night my friends. Well that was as far as equity markets are concerned the E600 European index down a cool 3.2%.

Markets Today: Runaway train
China’s economy at a glance

China’s economy at a glance

20 January 2016

China’s latest national accounts data showed a slowing trend for China’s economy in the December quarter. The services sector - the main engine for growth over 2015 – also slowed in the December quarter.

China’s economy at a glance
Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)

Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)

20 January 2016

Flipping through the Eagles song list on the way in, none of the many great Glenn Frey-penned tracks struck me as particularly applicable titles to describe overnight markets.

Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)
Markets Today: Super Tuesday

Markets Today: Super Tuesday

19 January 2016

With US markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day, the relatively quiet overnight session is probably not reflective of the current collective mood.

Markets Today: Super Tuesday
In Focus: Dairy January 2016

In Focus: Dairy January 2016

18 January 2016

Australian producers have been shielded from much tumult by a lower Australian dollar and a large and relatively stable domestic market.

In Focus: Dairy January 2016
Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia

Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia

18 January 2016

The falls in global oil prices over the last year or so are fundamentally a reaction to oversupply in global markets – as US new oil supply comes on board, OPEC puts the squeeze on profitability of new sources of supply by refusing to cut production.

Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia
Markets Today: Groundhog day

Markets Today: Groundhog day

18 January 2016

In a redux of the previous Friday, slumping oil prices were the primary catalyst for the latest pressure on commodity and emerging market currencies and global risk assets, alongside safe-haven support for Treasuries.

Markets Today: Groundhog day
U.S. Economic Update: January 2016

U.S. Economic Update: January 2016

15 January 2016

We expect another year of moderate growth in 2016, with further labour market improvement and inflation starting to move back towards the Fed’s target.

U.S. Economic Update: January 2016
Markets Today: Where are we now?

Markets Today: Where are we now?

15 January 2016

Today’s title is our final tribute to the late musical genius, David Bowie. Where are we are now? Is the first single from David Bowie’s 25th album released on the morning of his sixty-sixth birthday in 2013.

Markets Today: Where are we now?
Markets Today: Dollar days

Markets Today: Dollar days

14 January 2016

Less than hard-core Bowie aficionados can be forgiven for not immediately humming this track, which features on the Blackstar album released two days before his untimely death.

Markets Today: Dollar days
Markets Today: This is not America

Markets Today: This is not America

13 January 2016

‘Under Pressure’ was a particularly apt title to yesterday’s daily from my colleague Rodrigo by way of homage to the late great David Bowie.

Markets Today: This is not America
Markets Today: Under Pressure

Markets Today: Under Pressure

12 January 2016

Today's title is not only fitting to what has transpired in markets over the past 24 hrs, but it also serves as a tribute to the passing of a music legend.

Markets Today: Under Pressure
Markets Today: Riders on the storm

Markets Today: Riders on the storm

11 January 2016

On another day, news of a near 300k rise in US payrolls, still quite benign earnings growth and a steady but near-full employment unemployment rate (5.0%), might have sent equities and the dollar to the moon and bond yield higher.

Markets Today: Riders on the storm
Markets Today: Asian contagion (again)

Markets Today: Asian contagion (again)

8 January 2016

Similar themes from yesterday are at play today– China in the spotlight with its devaluing currency and equity market shenanigans; lower commodity prices and global equity markets tumbling; and a flight to the safety of the Yen.

Markets Today: Asian contagion (again)
2015 Year in Review: Capital Financing

2015 Year in Review: Capital Financing

7 January 2016

EGM Capital Financing, Steve Lambert, discusses two common themes that were present over the past 12 months - Innovation and volatility. It seems that 2015 saw more firsts in the market while at the same time it seeemed markets were closing just as quickly as they opened.

2015 Year in Review: Capital Financing
Markets Today: An ugly start to the year

Markets Today: An ugly start to the year

5 January 2016

The first day of trading for many markets was a memorable one, with some big falls in equity markets. With the plunge in risk appetite, the Yen was the best performing currency

Markets Today: An ugly start to the year
Markets Today: Bring it on

Markets Today: Bring it on

4 January 2016

Investors ended 2015 in a defensive stance. Following the risk aversion tone seen in the previous day, equity markets were sold on Thursday while core global bonds benefited from a safe haven bid.

Markets Today: Bring it on
Mini Markets Today – The Ace of Spades

Mini Markets Today – The Ace of Spades

30 December 2015

Some argue that there can’t be too many better analogies to predicting markets than playing cards or rolling dice, so the late Lemmy’s classic The Ace of Spades from the band Motörhead seems very apt this morning.

Mini Markets Today – The Ace of Spades
Markets Today: Back to black

Markets Today: Back to Black

24 December 2015

Heading into Wednesday’s New York close, the S&P 500 is showing a gain of about 1.2% on the day, which equates to a rise of just 0.2% year to date.

Markets Today: Back to black
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015

23 December 2015

The NAB Quarterly Australian Behaviour Survey (formerly NAB Consumer Anxiety Report) shows consumer anxiety falling again (and to its lowest level since Q4 2014), amid more signs of improvement in the labour market and non-mining segments of the economy.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015
Markets Today: Sideways

Markets Today: Sideways

23 December 2015

Moves in oil prices remain the main driver for markets amid a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday break.

Markets Today: Sideways
10 Themes for 2016

10 Themes for 2016

22 December 2015

The NAB Group Economics team identify 10 global and domestic themes which will have bearing on the economic and financial market outlook for 2016.

10 Themes for 2016
Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight

Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight

22 December 2015

Spanish politics has been a watch point for markets since the weekend with the national election not producing a clear majority for any one party and not an obvious coalition likely to be formed, according to Spanish political commentators.

Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight
NAB Group Economics: Special Report

NAB Group Economics: Special Report

21 December 2015

Many Australians dream of a financial windfall that would significantly improve their lives forever, but how much is enough? In this special report, we ask over 2,000 Australians to tell us how much they need.

NAB Group Economics: Special Report
Market’s today: Freaky Friday

Market’s today: Freaky Friday

21 December 2015

Friday was one of the four ‘triple witching’ occasions of 2015 (expiration of stock index futures, index options and individual share options) –sometimes known as freaky Friday.

Market’s today: Freaky Friday
Markets Today:  Zirp Rip

Markets Today: Zirp Rip

17 December 2015

Nine and a half years on from the last Fed rate hike and seven years on from when interest rates were first set at the effective zero lower bound (0-0.25%) the Fed has seen fit to sound the death knell for ZIRP, lifting the target rate for the fed funds rate to a range of 0.25-0.5%.

Markets Today:  Zirp Rip
China Economic Update – December 2015

China Economic Update – December 2015

16 December 2015

China’s online retail sales have rapidly expanded in recent years, as rising disposable incomes and growing internet penetration have supported the sector’s growth.

China Economic Update – December 2015
Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for

Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for

16 December 2015

The Indian market offers great potential for Australian exporters. Already the world’s third largest economy and growing by over 7% annually, India looks set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in the next 7 years.

Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for
Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’

Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’

16 December 2015

Unlike the rest of us who are now waiting to see what Janet Yellen delivers this time tomorrow, RBA Governor Governor Glenn Stevens has gone early, the AFR publishing its now traditional end-of-year interview with him overnight.

Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’
Markets Today: Liquidity Trap

Markets Today: Liquidity Trap

14 December 2015

Friday night session saw a surge in risk aversion with sharp losses in equity indices, the USD underperformed against other majors while safe haven demand pushed core global yields lower.

Markets Today: Liquidity Trap
Stay optimistic

Stay optimistic

11 December 2015

There have been some volatile shifts in the global economy recently, prompting pessimists to declare that there’s a 50–50 chance of Australia going into recession. However, a closer look at the numbers behind the forecasts shows there’s plenty of reason for optimism.

Stay optimistic
Markets Today: Slip sliding away

Markets Today: Slip sliding away

11 December 2015

A lot of the attention overnight remained centred on the commodity space with oil prices down another 1%, Brent crude at $39.70, down 0.97%.

Markets Today: Slip sliding away
Markets Today: Squeezed

Markets Today: Squeezed

10 December 2015

As we are about to press the send bottom, the RBNZ has cut its key rate to 2.50% from 2.75%. In the statement the RBNZ has noted that it expects to reach its inflation goal at current policy settings and that the rise in the exchange rate is unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate.

Markets Today: Squeezed
The World on Two Pages – December 2015

The World on Two Pages – December 2015

9 December 2015

In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.

The World on Two Pages – December 2015
India GDP & Monetary Policy

India GDP & Monetary Policy

9 December 2015

India’s economy accelerated in the September quarter 2015, with Real GDP growing by 7.4% yoy, up from 7% in the June quarter. NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.5% expansion in 2015, followed by 7.6% in 2016.

India GDP & Monetary Policy
Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP

Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP

9 December 2015

Variable economic growth outcomes continued into Q3, with real GDP picking up strongly to 0.9% q/q, following a revised weak 0.3% outcome in Q2 and a strong 0.9% increase in Q1. Year-ended growth picked up moderately to 2.5% y/y, but remained below trend.

Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP
Markets Today: In retreat

Markets Today: In Retreat

9 December 2015

The AUDUSD dipped below the 72c mark overnight amid the ongoing weakness in oil and bulk commodities.

Markets Today: In retreat
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015

8 December 2015

In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015
Monthly Business Survey – November 2015

Monthly Business Survey – November 2015

8 December 2015

Consistently above average business conditions are an encouraging sign that the apparent non-mining sector recovery continues to gain traction, despite relatively muted levels of business confidence.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2015
Markets Today: More commodity carnage

Markets Today: More commodity carnage

8 December 2015

Commodities were front and centre of market attention overnight, with oil prices taking another sizeable hit, both WTI and Brent crude down between 5-6% in the wake of OPEC officially abandoning its 30mb target late last week.

Markets Today: More commodity carnage
Markets Today: A Done Deal

Markets Today: A Done Deal

7 December 2015

The US employment report virtually matched expectations (NFP +211k, unemployment steady at 5%) and effectively confirms a Fed lift-off in two weeks’ time is a done deal.

Markets Today: A Done Deal
Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015

Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015

4 December 2015

Commodity markets remain under pressure, reflecting concerns over emerging market demand (especially from China), at a time when the supply of many commodities is on the incline. Anticipated policy tightening by the US Fed is also having an impact.

Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015
Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive

Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive

3 December 2015

“Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals,” Fed Chair Yellen told the Economic Club of Washington overnight.

Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive
Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts

Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts

1 December 2015

This report presents our forecasts for Australian agricultural exports for 2015-16 as well as estimates for 2016-17. Overall, 2015-16 looks to be a promising export year for most major Australian agricultural exports in value terms, supported by a lower Australian dollar.

Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts
Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015

Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015

30 November 2015

Economic partials for Q3 have been mixed, but point to stronger real GDP growth of 0.8% in the quarter (up from 0.2% in Q2), as a series of one-offs that weighed on Q2 growth recede.

Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015
Markets Today: Black Friday

Markets Today: Black Friday

27 November 2015

In the 1975 Steely Dan classic, the song Black Friday refers to a 24 September 1869 ploy by a group of wealthy US investors to corner the gold market and drive the price higher, but who were subsequently foiled when the government got wind and released $4 million worth of gold onto the market.

Markets Today: Black Friday
Markets Today: It’s all relative

Markets Today: It’s all relative

26 November 2015

It’s 100 years ago today that Albert Einstein formally presented the results of his eight year study into gravity – the general theory of relativity. Good on you Albert.

Markets Today: It’s all relative
Today’s Market Update: Do what we must

Today’s Market Update: Do what we must

23 November 2015

Friday’s session was hallmarked by comments from ECB President Draghi, which kept markets on the scent for a range of easing measures at next week’s hotly-anticipated meeting.

Today’s Market Update: Do what we must
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2015

18 November 2015

Office property re-emerges as the strongest commercial property sector. Overall sentiment in Australian commercial property markets has moderated a little, but it remains at elevated levels and continues to vary widely across sectors and states.

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2015
Monthly Financial Markets Update – November 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – November 2015

18 November 2015

Nick Ryder, NAB Private Wealth Investment Strategist, highlights how equity markets recorded their strongest rise in four years in October and continue to offer the best prospective returns of any asset class.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – November 2015
Markets Today: No Copper Bottom

Markets Today: No Copper Bottom

18 November 2015

It is a bit odd coming in to see hard commodity prices under the pump (including a $2 drop in iron ore prices, new cycle lows for copper and oil off another buck) but the AUD at the top of the G10 FX leader board.

Markets Today: No Copper Bottom
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

17 November 2015

Agricultural markets continue to react to the unfolding El Niño event, albeit in varying directions. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was stable in October.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015
Markets Today: Markets remain resilient

Markets Today: Markets remain resilient

17 November 2015

In a relatively quiet session, the impact from the Paris attacks on global markets has been fairly muted. The USD is stronger against all G10 currencies with the euro and NZD sitting at the bottom of the leader board.

Markets Today: Markets remain resilient
Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?

Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?

16 November 2015

We review last week’s stunning Australian labour market data. While we don’t believe the large moves in either the employment or unemployment rate, we believe the signals - that employment is strengthening (driven by NSW and importantly an improving trend for QLD)

Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?
China’s economy at a glance

China’s economy at a glance

12 November 2015

China’s service sector has been the main contributor to economic growth in recent times – particularly as trends in the industrial sector continue to weaken. In Q3, the services industry (led by finance) maintained fairly stable growth.

China’s economy at a glance
Markets Today: Sterling effort

Markets Today: Sterling effort

12 November 2015

Lots of interest overnight whether ECB President Mario Draghi would throw more fuel onto the ECB stimulus expectation fire, schedule to speak at a BoE sponsored open forum on Financial Market Reform event in London.

Markets Today: Sterling effort
The World on Two Pages – November 2015

The World on Two Pages – November 2015

11 November 2015

Global growth remains sub-trend and there is little sign of an imminent acceleration in the pace of expansion while in Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction.

The World on Two Pages – November 2015
Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger

Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger

11 November 2015

Not a big night as far as market movements are concerned, one extension of a theme being the continued ascendancy of the big dollar that has gained a little more momentum, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.12%.

Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015

10 November 2015

In Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction. Recent outcomes from the business survey support this contention with business conditions holding up at a high level in October, and the unemployment rate holding steady.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015
Markets Today: Fado fading?

Markets Today: Fado fading?

10 November 2015

A night of consolidation for markets with inconsequential data not pushing markets one way or the other.

Markets Today: Fado fading?
Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom

Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom

9 November 2015

Friday’s US payrolls report delivered across-the-board strength and markets responded to script, the dollar and bond yields both sharply higher but equity markets not sure whether to embrace the more positive US growth signals or fear the seemingly near-inevitably of December Fed ‘lift-off’.

Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom
Markets Today: On standby

Markets Today: On standby

6 November 2015

Not a massive session as far as new market direction was concerned overnight ahead of payrolls tonight.

Markets Today: On standby
Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015

Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015

5 November 2015

Based on incoming information, we have modestly reviewed our GDP forecasts to 2.6% in 2015/16 and 3.0% in 2016/17 (annual average). Overall, NAB Economics remain of the view that the recovery in the non-mining sector is slowly becoming more well entrenched.

Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015
NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015

5 November 2015

Business conditions among Australia’s ASX 300 firms rose to a new survey high of +20 points (up +12 from +8 points in the previous quarter). The gap between very big and small business is now at its widest margin since this survey began.

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015
Markets Today: Front and centre

Markets Today: Front and centre

5 November 2015

Markets took their cue from Fed Chair Janet Yellen overnight, testifying before the US House Financial Services Committee on bank regulation.

Markets Today: Front and centre
Markets Today: Put It All On ‘Scope’

Markets Today: Put It All On ‘Scope’

4 November 2015

A rising commodities tide lifted all boats overnight, with an improved tone in risk evident in equities, bonds, and currencies. The AUD outperformed after the RBA stood pat yesterday. It is a very busy day ahead.

Markets Today: Put It All On ‘Scope’
Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP

Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP

3 November 2015

Overall, we assess this year’s El Niño as a moderate risk to farm production. We forecast farm GDP (2% of the total economy) to be flat to moderately lower (0 to -5%) in 2015-16, which will only marginally subtract from headline GDP.

Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP
Australian Markets Weekly: A few charts for the RBA Board to ponder

Australian Markets Weekly: A few charts for the RBA Board to ponder

3 November 2015

This week in Australia is of course all about the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday and the November Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday. Our special focus this week is on a number of charts showing that the RBA has already eased pro-cyclically and the non-mining economy is improving.

Australian Markets Weekly: A few charts for the RBA Board to ponder
Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin

Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin

2 November 2015

Unlike Wednesday and Thursday morning (post FOMC, RBNZ), Friday was not a big night for markets and following the BoJ’s earlier ‘no change’. End of month rebalancing flows appeared to dominate price action, meaning a slightly softer US dollar (DXY -0.35%, BBDXY -0.42%).

Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin
NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights

NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights

30 October 2015

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides a rich source of information about Australian business, their behaviours and the environment in which they operate. In addition to questions around sales, profitability, employment and the like, one focus of the Survey revolves around currency markets.

NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015

30 October 2015

At 1.1% the latest seasonally adjusted NAB online retail sales index shows sales accelerated in September (possibly iphone 6S related), an improvement on the 0.6% recorded in August, and a rebound on the July contraction (-1.4).

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015
NAB Wellbeing Report: Q3 2015

NAB Wellbeing Report: Q3 2015

30 October 2015

Australia’s wellbeing has risen to its highest level since mid-2013, with levels of happiness, life satisfaction, life worth and anxiety all improving, the latest NAB Wellbeing Index has found.

NAB Wellbeing Report: Q3 2015
Markets Today: On the road again

Markets Today: On the road again

30 October 2015

With the echo of the FOMC still ringing in its ear, the market re-priced the odds of the Fed moving in December, lifting the probability to a 50/50 call, those odds having been tracking at a less than one in three chance before the FOMC.

Markets Today: On the road again
NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015

29 October 2015

In the quarter, SME business conditions stayed unchanged at +4 index points. Within the components of business conditions, trading conditions were particularly strong, which flowed into modestly better profitability conditions. However, employment conditions remained subdued.

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015

29 October 2015

Housing market sentiment softens as expectations for future price growth and rents are scaled back in most states. Queensland is the exception, replacing NSW as the most optimistic state for residential property and tipped to lead the country for price and rental growth over the next 1-2 years.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015
Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?

Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?

29 October 2015

Global concerns and the potential negative feedback loop to the US economy and inflation have been dialled down. At the same, concerns about the strength of the labour market have been somewhat dialled up, the Fed noting that “the pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady”.

Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?
Today’s Market Update: What to buy

Today’s Market Update: What to buy

28 October 2015

The US dollar sits near the top of the currency leader board this morning, retaining its composure, though more by default of weakness elsewhere.

Today’s Market Update: What to buy
Markets Today: The countdown

Markets Today: The countdown

27 October 2015

It was a contained night for markets, equities a little heavy for no apparent reason other than perhaps some nerves ahead of Thursday morning’s FOMC announcement.

Markets Today: The countdown
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015

26 October 2015

Charitable giving in Australia grew in the year to August, with people continuing to give more to charity despite persistent doubt about the economy. Overall giving to charity grew by 4.9 per cent in the 12 months to August 2015. However, this is down from growth of 7.8 per cent the previous year.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015
Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off

Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off

26 October 2015

Watching the tears streaming down the face of Pumas head coach Daniel Hourcade a couple of hours ago, ‘Don’t Cry For Me Argentine’ was the obvious title for today’s missive, but it’s already looking a little overused in the Twitter-sphere.

Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off
Markets Today: Easy

Markets Today: Easy

23 October 2015

ECB President Draghi stepped up to the plate last night, setting equity markets alight and scuttling the EUR. Draghi effectively preannounced further easing in policy at its 3 December meeting.

Markets Today: Easy
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015

22 October 2015

Leading indicators were generally more positive in Q3 2015. Forward orders jumped to their highest level since late 2009, while expectations for conditions in 3 and 12 months time both improved.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015
Markets Today: A bit of a yawner

Markets Today: A bit of a yawner

21 October 2015

The NZD at least has shown some movement and to some surprise, the Canadian dollar sits at the top of the G10 FX leader-board.

Markets Today: A bit of a yawner
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015

20 October 2015

Agricultural prices continued to diverge in September. Most major grains fell as did fruit, vegetables and trade lamb (reflecting seasonal trends) however dairy prices strongly rebounded and sugar, beef and rice were also higher in AUD terms.

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015
China’s economy at a glance – October

China’s economy at a glance – October

20 October 2015

China’s latest national accounts data showed a slowing trend for China’s economy in the September quarter falling below the annual growth target for the first time this year. As a result, we are revising our forecasts for China’s growth.

China’s economy at a glance – October
Markets Today: Friday on my mind

Markets Today: Friday on my mind

20 October 2015

Though there isn’t too much to say about last night’s markets and after the local market yesterday was, within 15 minutes of the China data, already checking out the coming weekend’s weather forecast.

Markets Today: Friday on my mind
Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture

19 October 2015

The Trans Pacific Partnership delivers tariff reductions and improved market access for Australian agricultural products. With TPP countries representing a third of Australian agricultural exports, these benefits are potentially significant.

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture
Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases

Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases

19 October 2015

In this weekly, we consider the implications for monetary policy of last week’s independent mortgage rate increases by Westpac. RBA expected to watch how other intermediaries respond to the move and to assess how the move impacts the economy.

Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases
Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy

Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy

19 October 2015

Friday was largely a lower beta replica of Thursday and where, recall, the higher US core CPI and further drop in US jobless claims were the key market drivers. Momentum carried though to Friday’s session, and wasn’t undermined by US industrial/manufacturing production data that was soft.

Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy
Markets Today: Core, Blimey

Markets Today: Core, Blimey

16 October 2015

Much of Wednesday’s market price action in currencies, equities and bonds has been reversed. The exceptions here are the commodity currency trio of NZD, CAD and AUD which for the most part are continuing to resist the allure of a weaker US dollar.

Markets Today: Core, Blimey
China Economic Update: October 2015

China Economic Update: October 2015

15 October 2015

China moving the international standard – already planned but delayed – could show that the transition in China’s economic growth model has progressed further than previously understood.

China Economic Update: October 2015
Markets Today: No quarter

Markets Today: No quarter

15 October 2015

Led Zeppelin (1973) for the benefit of a generation younger than this scribe (i.e. most of you).

Markets Today: No quarter
The World on Two Pages – October 2015

The World on Two Pages – October 2015

14 October 2015

We are still forecasting little to no pick up in the pace of global growth and our domestic forecasts are unchanged this month, with real GDP expected to expand by 2.4% in 2015/16 and 3.1% in 2016/17.

The World on Two Pages – October 2015
Markets Today: From hero to zero

Markets Today: From hero to zero

14 October 2015

In the five days through this Monday, the AUD had been the best performing major currency, rallying by just shy of 4% against the US dollar.

Markets Today: From hero to zero
NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015

13 October 2015

There was a partial recovery in business confidence in September as the Government’s leadership uncertainties were resolved, while financial market volatility and emerging market concerns have moderated from the heights of the previous month – although market concerns remain elevated.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015
Australian Markets Weekly:  Australia = ∑ many cycles

Australian Markets Weekly: Australia = ∑ many cycles

12 October 2015

In this weekly we examine through the lens of job advertisements, the net effect for the labour market – and by implication the broader economy – of the many conflicting cycles currently impacting the evolution of the Australian economy.

Australian Markets Weekly:  Australia = ∑ many cycles
Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style

Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style

12 October 2015

AUD was the best performing G10 currency on Friday, and GBP the worse, the latter initially suffering on some dismal UK trade figures and which contrast starkly with the Eurozone’s current account surplus status.

Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style
Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights

9 October 2015

Earlier this week, Australia agreed to become part of a historic trade agreement, including countries that account for nearly 36% of global GDP and one quarter of global trade. This document provides a summary of the key measures, reported benefits and what we know so far about contentious issues.

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights
Markets Today: A minute of your time

Markets Today: A minute of your time

9 October 2015

The Sep FOMC minutes came and went and when all is said and done, it has not clarified whether the Fed is likely to be hiking before year end or later.

Markets Today: A minute of your time
Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)

Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)

7 October 2015

The IMF is hogging the news headlines overnight, though markets have long since given up seeing much information value in the now customary 6-monthly downward revisions to its global and country-specific growth forecasts.

Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)
Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets

Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets

6 October 2015

It was a night for risk assets again with the S&P closing out its fifth day of gains, up another 1.85% with EM and European equities also performing well, the Eurostoxx 600 index up a cool 3.01%, with a sea of green gains across this writer’s screen.

Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets
Markets Today: There is something to see here

Markets Today: There is something to see here

5 October 2015

Anyone looking for redeeming features in Friday’s soft US payrolls report was reduced to noting that the weakness in average earnings (flat on the month and unchanged at 2.2% y/y) may have been down to the fact that the Sep 15 mid-month pay day was excluded from the calculation

Markets Today: There is something to see here
Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça

Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça

2 October 2015

At the start of a new quarter, markets are struggling for a clear frame of reference, not yet sure whether bad economic news is good news for risk if it keeps the Fed at bay for longer, or is bad news because it serves to amplify concerns about the overall health of the global economy.

Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015

1 October 2015

Key Points Agricultural prices diverged in August and into September – protein and fibres generally rose while crops trended lower. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was flat in AUD terms in August (down 0.1%) and moderately lower in USD terms (down 2.0%). The AUD continued its downward trajectory in August, before sinking below 70 […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015

1 October 2015

The latest NAB online retail sales index figures show sales grew in August. In dollar terms, its estimated Australians spent $17.5 billion on online retail in the last year. Growth accelerated for electronic games and toys which leads growth, along with media and fashion.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015
Markets Today: Recession, what recession?

Markets Today: Recession, what recession?

1 October 2015

The US ADP employment report last night printed +200k, seemingly confirming that the US economy continues to create more than enough jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate trending down to – and through – the so-called NAIRU rate (below which further labour market strength risks accelerating inflation)

Markets Today: Recession, what recession?
Markets Today: Uneasy calm

Markets Today: Uneasy calm

30 September 2015

A quieter night overnight, with no large moves, but no strong reversals either. US equities eeked out fractional gains, while Europe was still weak. Yields were a little lower and currencies in G10 for the most part flat. Oil did rise and Glencore, yesterday’s prophet of doom, bounced 17%.

Markets Today: Uneasy calm
Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth

Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth

28 September 2015

In this weekly update we tease out some implications of slower population growth that’s been evident now for the past two years, with a further step down reported by the Australian Statistician last week.

Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth
Markets Today: A big week

Markets Today: A big week

28 September 2015

Friday’s tone was set by Fed Chair Yellen, early in the Sydney session. In this, she backed up the Fed speakers post the FOMC, which have reiterated that the Fed are looking to raise interest rates this year.

Markets Today: A big week
Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again

Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again

25 September 2015

Another choppy night of trading with hints of risk-off still dogging equity markets and supporting bond markets, while commodities were non-directional with copper down marginally but other metals mostly rose, including the yellow metal.

Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again
Markets Today: Mixed emotions

Markets Today: Mixed emotions

24 September 2015

It’s been a night of mixed emotions as far as risk sentiment is concerned. It was not helped initially by yesterday’s weaker China manufacturing reading, and the quickly emerging shadow of Volkswagen’s issues.

Markets Today: Mixed emotions
Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses

Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses

23 September 2015

It’s a bit of pick and mix for explanations regarding market moves in the last 24 hours. There has been no top tier economic data, no new speeches, or surprises.

Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses
Markets Today: Scaring the Horses

Markets Today: Scaring the Horses

21 September 2015

Not sure this was the reaction the Fed were looking for when they decided to pause and give a shout out to the struggling EM economies and global economic risks.

Markets Today: Scaring the Horses
Markets Today:  Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled

Markets Today: Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled

18 September 2015

The time arrived but the Fed couldn’t bring itself to raise rates for the first time since the Financial Crisis. In a hugely anticipated FOMC meeting, the market had priced just over a quarter percent chance of a hike, and just under 50% of economists expected a move, but they remained on hold.

Markets Today:  Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled
Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…

Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…

17 September 2015

Another relatively calm and comfortable session heading into the FOMC meeting. With markets and economists split on the outcome, something will move if the Fed does, or it doesn’t. So enjoy the quiet day today, ahead of tomorrow.

Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…
Markets Today: Do It Already

Markets Today: Do It Already

16 September 2015

Do It Already is the headline of a Bloomberg article today, but mirrors the sentiment in articles across the press and the discussions on our own floor. Markets are like rabbits in spotlights, uncertain as to which way to shift, just in case there is a move by the Fed.

Markets Today: Do It Already
Monthly Financial Markets Update – September 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – September 2015

15 September 2015

Chinese economic data has been weak, causing significant weakness in global equity markets In Australia, second quarter economic growth was lack lustre and there was a surprise fall in retail sales, but other measures of economic activity such as building approvals and employment look good.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – September 2015
Australian housing market update – September 2015

Australian housing market update – September 2015

15 September 2015

In the past 12 months Sydney values have increased by 17.6%, Melbourne values by 10.6% with the next best performing capital city being Brisbane seeing a growth in values of 3.9%. The disparity in the top performing growth rates highlights just how diverse the housing market has become post GFC.

Australian housing market update – September 2015
Markets Today: Where is everybody?

Markets Today: Where is everybody?

15 September 2015

There is a flurry of opinions, newsflow, chatter and speculation about the Fed this week, but at the end of the day, there isn’t much that is new to report for markets. Still waiting for the FOMC.

Markets Today: Where is everybody?
China’s economy at a glance – September

China’s economy at a glance – September

14 September 2015

Short term disruptions add some uncertainty to extent of China’s economic slowdown. China’s 2014 GDP was revised lower in September – with growth down to 7.3% (compared with 7.4% previously) – due to weaker growth in services.

China’s economy at a glance – September
Markets Today: More Waiting

Markets Today: More Waiting

14 September 2015

It’s been relatively quiet from Friday and likely to stay that way for a few more days yet. The news flow has been limited and what there has been, has been clouded by one-offs.

Markets Today: More Waiting
United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015

United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015

11 September 2015

The Fed is still likely to start lifting rates this year, but we now expect this to be in December rather than September. The US economy is expected to continue growing at an above trend rate. We now expect growth in both 2015 & 2016 to be 2.5%.

United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015
Emerging Asia – September 2015

Emerging Asia – September 2015

11 September 2015

Concerns about the extent of slowing in China, the anticipated rise in the US Fed Funds rate, and sharp declines in commodity prices have generated unease about the impact on emerging markets. Among the major Asian Emerging economies, South Korea and Taiwan, appear stronger than the rest.

Emerging Asia – September 2015
State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands

State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands

11 September 2015

Economic activity is shifting back to the eastern seaboard as the economy transitions towards non-mining sources of growth with domestic demand will be strongest in New South Wales and Victoria.

State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands
Markets Today: Stiff upper lip

Markets Today: Stiff upper lip

11 September 2015

It was the makings of a risk-on mood for markets overnight and a night when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was hanging tough about the healthy outlook for the UK economy and still harbouring thoughts of a UK rate rise coming into focus in the first part of next year.

Markets Today: Stiff upper lip
Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?

Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?

10 September 2015

The RBNZ has just delivered a universally expected 25-point cut to the OCR (to 2.75%) and says both that some further easing seems likely and that further currency deprecation is appropriate. This takes a bite out of pre-RBNZ NZD strength.

Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015

9 September 2015

Australian's are feeling less anxious underpinned by lower stress associated with retirement funding, cost of living, job security and health. And for the first time, NAB’s Consumer Anxiety report sheds light on spending behaviours across states.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015

9 September 2015

The pace of growth in the big advanced economies has picked up, mainly reflecting a US recovery from weak first quarter growth. In contrast, Japan and the Euro-zone are not growing strongly and Canada is in recession.

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015
The World on Two Pages – September 2015

The World on Two Pages – September 2015

9 September 2015

There is increasing evidence that growth momentum is broadening across the the non-mining Australian economy – not limited to the dwelling sector – in response to the lower AUD and interest rates, with improvement particularly evident in services sectors.

The World on Two Pages – September 2015
In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015

In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015

9 September 2015

Lamb prices follow a generally seasonal pattern, rising early in the year before declining in spring as spring lamb supply becomes available. Nonetheless, monthly average trade lamb prices have remained reasonably steady through July and into August this year and prices are now well ahead of the same time last year.

In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015
Markets Today: Spring has sprung

Markets Today: Spring has sprung

9 September 2015

The global financial markets are breathing a sigh of relief and enjoying the advent of Spring here in the Southern Hemisphere. Happy days: the Fed may wait a little while before raising rates and China seems to have everything sorted.

Markets Today: Spring has sprung
NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015

8 September 2015

Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015
Markets Today: Draining reserve pools

Markets Today: Draining reserve pools

8 September 2015

With the US out for Labour Day and not a lot of economic data elsewhere, it was a relatively quiet night. Market moves were somewhat restrained, awaiting guidance from the upcoming FOMC meeting (next week) and how China’s economy deals with the current uncertainty.

Markets Today: Draining reserve pools
Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers

Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers

7 September 2015

In this Weekly, we are enclosing a recent research piece from our Senior Currency Strategist Emma Lawson on the commodities that are (and which will be) important drivers of the Australian dollar, including the outlook. We also preview local data and RBA speeches for the week ahead.

Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers
Markets Today: (Fed) fright night

Markets Today: (Fed) fright night

7 September 2015

In the wake Friday’s US employment report that overall could be judged to be consistent with the FOMC’s stated desire to see ‘some further improvement in the labor market’, risk markets took fresh fright.

Markets Today: (Fed) fright night
Hidden value lies in non-CBD office sector

Hidden value lies in non-CBD office sector

4 September 2015

Diverse opportunities in the non-Central Business District (CBD) office sector mean high net worth investors can invest through pooled/syndicated vehicles or directly. Peter Cashmore, NAB Senior Real Estate Equities Analyst, outlines what investors need to know.

Hidden value lies in non-CBD office sector
Markets Today: Let’s get loud

Markets Today: Let’s get loud

4 September 2015

The Euro is weaker this morning and the USD a touch stronger thanks to ECB President Draghi banging the drum about QE, the ECB staff downgrading their Euro-zone growth and inflation forecasts and a pretty comforting slug of US data.

Markets Today: Let’s get loud
Markets Today: Joyride

Markets Today: Joyride

3 September 2015

A more measured night. Shanghai finished down smalls yesterday (-0.2%) ahead of a four day long weekend to mark China’s victory in WWII and while European bourses had something of a see-saw night closed higher.

Markets Today: Joyride
Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015

Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015

2 September 2015

Variability in Australia’s growth outcomes by quarter indicates an economy undergoing significant structural change as it attempts to transition away from mining-investment led growth.

Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015

2 September 2015

We estimate Australians spent $17.4 billion on online retail in the 12 months to July 2015 which level is equivalent to 7.1% of spending at traditional bricks & mortar retailers excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015
Markets Today: The Merry Go Around

Markets Today: The Merry Go Around

2 September 2015

Things aren’t really getting better. The circular theme of markets continues, with equities weakening, weighing on broader risk, weighing on currencies, weighing on equities. And so it goes. While the Fed waits to decide to raise rates, this is not helping the global markets.

Markets Today: The Merry Go Around
Markets Today: Would I lie to you

Markets Today: Would I lie to you

1 September 2015

Equity markets harboured something of a defensive tone, but the oil market kicked higher again on the little to no fundamental news, signs of a classic short squeeze.

Markets Today: Would I lie to you
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

31 August 2015

The RBA Board is sure to leave the cash rate at 2% on Tuesday and their Statement is likely to again signal a very modest easing bias. Absolutely no intent, but nonetheless an acknowledgement that if needed they still have 200bps of interest rates to play with.

Australian Markets Weekly
Markets Today: Not much the wiser

Markets Today: Not much the wiser

31 August 2015

European and U.S markets on Friday failed to key off the 4.82% rise in the Shanghai Composite, in contrast to Thursday. The proximity to the weekend Jackson Hole talk-fest looks to have been a factor keeping trading subdued.

Markets Today: Not much the wiser
Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)

Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)

28 August 2015

In the immortal words of Johnny Cash (singing) “I ‘m going to Jackson…” Nope, can’t do it justice, although Ray (MT’s co-author) is definitely having an influence on me. But we do see the central bankers heading to Jackson Hole (JH)

Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)
Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty

Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty

27 August 2015

Difficult huh? You thought you knew which direction this was all going? After big moves there can often be big reversals. It doesn’t mean that the underlying issue is resolved but rather is often a factor of positioning, liquidity and uncertainty. We have a jumble of all three going on.

Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty
Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”

Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”

25 August 2015

Feeding off Monday’s 8.5%plunge in the Shanghai index and not much else, US stock markets have just closed with the S&P500 down 3.92%, the NASDAQ -3.81% and the Dow 3.56%. This masks much more extreme intraday volatility and which saw indices down more than 5% earlier in the US session.

Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”
Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest

Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest

24 August 2015

The Economist this week carries a topical article on commodities, “Goodbye to all that: a decade of binging on raw materials may leave an even longer hangover”, outlining the pressure on producers now from declining prices.

Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015

24 August 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index continues to rise in AUD terms (up 4.1% in July), supported by a lower dollar and higher beef, fruit, domestic wheat and sugar prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015
Markets Today: Lightning bolts

Markets Today: Lightning bolts

24 August 2015

Despite the best efforts of policy makers of late to downplay the significance of the first Fed rate rise relative to what happens after that, global markets remain in the midst of rate rise ructions.

Markets Today: Lightning bolts
Markets Today: US data nonchalance

Markets Today: US data nonchalance

18 August 2015

News wise, it has actually been quite an eventful night – tragically so in Thailand where a bomb blast in the centre of Bangkok during Monday’s evening rush hour is reported to have killed least 19 people and injured more than 120.

Markets Today: US data nonchalance
United States Economic Update – 14 August 2015

United States Economic Update – 14 August 2015

17 August 2015

Economic growth strengthened in the June quarter and is set to remain above its long-term trend rate. The Fed is likely to raise rates this year. We expect this to start in September although it could easily be delayed. Subsequent rate hikes will occur at a slow pace by past standards.

United States Economic Update – 14 August 2015
Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum

Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum

17 August 2015

Noteworthy developments last week from the RBA, were: (i) the Deputy Governor attribute most of the recent increase in Australian house prices to an increase in land prices; and (ii) Assistant Governor Chris Kent add the composition of recent Australian growth (and possible mismeasurement issues for services growth) to the list of explanations as to why Australian employment and unemployment outcomes had outperformed expectations despite as expected relatively slow GDP growth.

Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum
Markets Today: So last week

Markets Today: So last week

17 August 2015

An uneventful end to the week on Friday but one where mild upside surprises in US industrial production and PPI helped deliver slightly higher US treasury yields out to 10 years and a marginally firmer dollar.

Markets Today: So last week
Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing

Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing

14 August 2015

Further weakness in oil prices, a more settled Chinese renminbi and a solid US July retail sales report caught the market’s attention overnight. News of disruption to the major Chinese port of Tianjin after the explosion Wednesday has not so far affected the outlook for iron ore prices too much.

Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing
Monthly Financial Markets Update – August, 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – August, 2015

13 August 2015

Global financial markets recovered in July following the debt deal in Greece and stabilisation of the Chinese stock market. Locally, the news is also good – the unemployment rate appears to have peaked while business conditions and confidence have also picked up.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – August, 2015
The World on Two Pages – August 2015

The World on Two Pages – August 2015

13 August 2015

Our forecasts for global growth to stay around the 3¼% yoy and locally, our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month – 2.4% in 2014/15, 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.

The World on Two Pages – August 2015
Markets Today: Renminbi Me

Markets Today: Renminbi Me

13 August 2015

It’s getting interesting. And it is likely to remain that way for a little while yet. China’s move to a more market orientated currency is causing volatility and uncertainty and it might take a while until there is clarity.

Markets Today: Renminbi Me
Markets Today: Restorative or War?

Markets Today: Restorative or War?

12 August 2015

Markets are a little wary of the implications of China’s devaluation yesterday, combine that with uncertainty around the Fed’s upcoming interest rate hike and mix in Northern Hemisphere summer liquidity and you have a slightly uneasy, conflicting set of market moves overnight.

Markets Today: Restorative or War?
India Monetary Policy Review – August  2015

India Monetary Policy Review – August 2015

11 August 2015

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the Repo rate 7.25%, as expected and the Government and the RBI are broadly in agreement regarding the future composition of the Monetary policy committee. The outlook for the remainder of the monsoon - and it impact on food prices, as well as the impact of the Fed’s anticipated rate rise are two critical determinants of future interest rate movements.

India Monetary Policy Review – August  2015
China Economic Update – August 2015

China Economic Update – August 2015

11 August 2015

China’s auto industry may be reaching its domestic limit, but is not yet ready to take on the world. The industry has experienced spectacular growth over the last decade – reflecting in part a broader evolution in China’s industrial sector over this period. At a national level, China has lost competitiveness to a range of emerging economies in Asia.

China Economic Update – August 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015

11 August 2015

Global growth is running below trend limiting the pace of expansion in commodity demand. Output has been growing faster recently in some of the big advanced economies (notably the US and UK) and the Greek crisis has had little impact on activity across the rest of the Euro-zone.

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015

11 August 2015

The business confidence index remains positive, both trading conditions and profitability remain relatively elevated and the trend has held up around average levels. Our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month, with growth of 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015
Markets Today: T-38 and counting

Markets Today: T-38 and counting

11 August 2015

With just over a month to go until the Sep 18 FOMC meeting announcement, Fed speakers remain right under the spotlight. Last night we heard from two, Denis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed President and voter and Stanley Fischer, no 2 at the Fed each with their own perspective.

Markets Today: T-38 and counting
Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone

Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone

10 August 2015

This week we attempt to interpret the latest developments in the large and complex range of conflicting influences impacting on the Australian economy and financial markets. It’s fair to say there is something for everyone in the latest data and policy pronouncements.

Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone
Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race

Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race

7 August 2015

Interest overnight in what the BoE Governor had to say after their meeting and how “hawkish” he might be, focus of course also in their forecasts in the latest quarterly Inflation Report.

Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race
Markets Today: Walking on sunshine

Markets Today: Walking on sunshine

6 August 2015

Anglo-American pop band Katrina and the Waves - Walking on Sunshine - is 30 years old this year and the rights to the song were sold to Bertelsmann last night for a cool £10mn. The song still generates over £1mn. a year in royalties and endorsements.

Markets Today: Walking on sunshine
Markets Today: Where you go, I follow

Markets Today: Where you go, I follow

4 August 2015

Oil took centre stage last night with West Texas Intermediate down 3.8% to $45.33/bbl and Brent crude down a cool 5.0% to $49.60, WTI the lowest since March 19 and Brent below $50/bbl for the first time since January when oil selling was at its most intense.

Markets Today: Where you go, I follow
US Economic Update –  US GDP Q2 2015

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2015

3 August 2015

U.S. GDP growth accelerated in the June quarter to a rate of 0.6% qoq (2.3% annualised). Following revisions, the economy is now estimated to have grown in the first quarter.

US Economic Update –  US GDP Q2 2015
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – June 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – June 2015

3 August 2015

At -0.1% the latest seasonally adjusted nab online retail sales index shows sales growth was virtually flat in May, a significant slowdown on the 1.6% growth recorded in April. At 0.5%, the trend estimate for online retail sales was unchanged on the previous month.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – June 2015
Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA

Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA

3 August 2015

Event risk aplenty this week with the RBA August Board meeting tomorrow, Friday’s RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) and key economy reports. Among those data points, the most market sensitive is tomorrow’s retail sales along with a wider trade deficit.

Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA
Markets Today: ECI Friday

Markets Today: ECI Friday

3 August 2015

Most of Friday’s market price action emanated from the US Q2 Employment Cost Index, which at just +0.2% Q/Q (not annualised) was the lowest quarterly change since records began in 1996. The market was looking for +0.6% after +0.7% in Q1.

Markets Today: ECI Friday
NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015

30 July 2015

In the June quarter, SME quarterly business conditions and confidence rose rising by 2 points to +4 and +5 index points respectively. SME business conditions were superior in property, finance, business services, wholesale, manufacturing and transport sectors.

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015
Markets Today: So So

Markets Today: So So

30 July 2015

Two words, both beginning with ‘so’ - solid and some - marked the FOMC statement out as very subtly more hawkish than its recent predecessors.

Markets Today: So So
Markets Today: Not yet, but soon

Markets Today: Not yet, but soon

29 July 2015

Sitting, waiting for the Fed, in summer markets. That pretty much characterises the last day, which was surprising after the angst of the prior period.

Markets Today: Not yet, but soon
Markets Today: From Greece to China

Markets Today: From Greece to China

28 July 2015

Very much a risk-off night for markets with equities and some commodities taking the brunt after Chinese stocks lurched lower in afternoon trade to finish down an eye-glazing 8½% on the day. A year ago, the Shanghai composite was 2,177; yesterday it closed at 3,752.

Markets Today: From Greece to China
Oil Market Update – July 2015

Oil Market Update – July 2015

27 July 2015

After recording gravity-defying price gains in April and May that are largely denominated by correlation with the USD, oil price movements have turned bearish in June and July-to- date.

Oil Market Update – July 2015
Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper

Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper

24 July 2015

It’s been a night again where the market has not had to be besotted with global geo-politics such as Greece and has been able to focus on the flow of data and more reports out of the US earnings season.

Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper
Quarterly Business Survey – June 20

Quarterly Business Survey – June 20

23 July 2015

The June quarter NAB Business Survey confirms the trend of gradually improving near-term indicators, but with a somewhat patchy longer term outlook. Business confidence strengthened in Q2 to +4 index points (from 0 points), which is its highest level since Q3 2014…

Quarterly Business Survey – June 20
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015

21 July 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index was steady in June. The neutral result largely reflects higher grain and protein prices offset by sharply lower fruit, vegetable and to a lesser degree sugar prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015
Markets Today: Relative calm restored

Markets Today: Relative calm restored

20 July 2015

Friday was pretty quiet, in FX especially, after US CPI data failed to surprise, following a slow Asia session where activity was constrained by end-of-Ramadan holidays in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Gold was one of the biggest movers on the night, -$11.25 to a new 5-year low of $1134.14

Markets Today: Relative calm restored
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015

17 July 2015

Family relationships and safe communities critical to Aussies’ wellbeing. In an effort to better understand why Australians feel the way they do, NAB has been tracking Australia’s wellbeing (as measured by anxiety, life-satisfaction, happiness, and life-worth) since early-2013.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015
Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece

Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece

17 July 2015

Not big moves on the currency front overnight, though the USD was somewhat stronger as the ECB announced that it had turned on the liquidity spigot for Greece again and what data there was for the US was added a little more incremental evidence the economy is making further progress.

Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece
Markets Today:  Guilt by association

Markets Today: Guilt by association

16 July 2015

News wise, nothing bad has happened in or to Australia since we went home last night. Yet the AUD sits almost a full cent lower than where we left it.

Markets Today:  Guilt by association
The World on Two pages – July 2015

The World on Two pages – July 2015

15 July 2015

We have not changed our forecast for global growth this year (3.2%), but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.

The World on Two pages – July 2015
Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking

Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking

15 July 2015

Back to our day jobs, with a reprieve on being political or equity analysts, we can return to the global economy. Markets also chose to ignore the after-party cleaning up in Greece, to focus on central bank speak – both actual and what is to come.

Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015

14 July 2015

Financial market volatility and the downside risks to global growth have been driven by the Chinese share market correction and the issues in Greece. Locally, lower interest rates and the AUD, strong housing prices and a post Budget kick in confidence appears to have driven better business outcomes.

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015

14 July 2015

Business confidence lifted again in the month of June – the highest level since September 2013. Confidence is now positive in all industries except mining and business conditions improved even more, in June – the highest level since last October.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey

13 July 2015

After a drawn out sequence of EuroGroup, EU Leaders and side meetings through last week, the EU Leaders have been meeting overnight in another drawn out and, at times, acrimonious attempt to put together a deal that would result in a third bailout package and keep Greece in the Euro.

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey
Monthly Financial Markets Update – July, 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – July, 2015

13 July 2015

Financial markets remain focussed on a Greek exit from the Eurozone, wild gyrations on the Chinese equity market and further hints about a rise in US interest rates. Locally, markets are concerned about falling commodity prices and strong property prices.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – July, 2015
Markets Today: Take it or leave it

Markets Today: Take it or leave it

13 July 2015

According to the Guardian’s European correspondent, ‘extensive mental waterboarding’ is how one official described the rough ride being given to Greek PM Alex Tsipras by EU President Donald Tusk, German chancellor Merkel and French President Françoise Hollande.

Markets Today: Take it or leave it
Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC

Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC

9 July 2015

While being glued to the long running soap opera of the Greek debt situation, there is another, more mini-series like, show going on in the East. And like Netflix versus NBC (who shows Days of our Lives) it has crept up and has captured everyone’s attention.

Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC
Markets Today: More homework needed

Markets Today: More homework needed

8 July 2015

Markets were disappointed by the lack of progress in Greece overnight; albeit they should be used to that by now. It did lead to a big drop in European yields and equity market, EUR also underperformed for much of the day.

Markets Today: More homework needed
China Economic Update – 7 July 2015

China Economic Update – 7 July 2015

7 July 2015

Opening the capital account will further internationalise the Yuan and monetary policy. This report is the second of two looking into capital account liberalisation in China. This report looks at the international implications of this reform.

China Economic Update – 7 July 2015
Podcast: Greece Referendum Fallout

Podcast: Greece Referendum Fallout

6 July 2015

In this special edition podcast, Peter Jolly, NAB Global Head of Research, and Peter Hartley, NAB Business Markets - Foreign Exchange, discuss the latest developments in the Greece referendum fallout.

Podcast: Greece Referendum Fallout
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market

6 July 2015

This week we look at: the Greek vote; recent developments in Chinese equity markets; the RBA’s July Board meeting; and upcoming important Australian labour market releases for June, with ANZ and SEEK job ads released this week and the monthly ABS labour market data on Thursday.

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market
Markets Today: 61% say No

Markets Today: 61% say No

6 July 2015

Ahead of Sunday’s referendum, that is now in process of delivering a decisive ‘No’ vote (to the terms and conditions under which Greece’s creditors would have extended the now-expired second bailout).

Markets Today: 61% say No
Markets Today: Circling the wagons

Markets Today: Circling the wagons

3 July 2015

An overall disappointing US payrolls report, the ‘lowlight’ of which was an unexpectedly flat monthly read on average hourly earnings and which, together with a 0.1% downward revision to May, served to pull annual earnings growth down to 2.0% from 2.3%.

Markets Today: Circling the wagons
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015

2 July 2015

There were no signs of global growth accelerating in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and commodity prices have been mixed, partly in response to USD movements.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015
Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down

Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down

2 July 2015

om Petty’s 1989 classic is appropriately recast as an “Ode to Alex” (Tsipras) after the Greek Prime Minister says he won’t back down on his referendum decision and that both he and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis confirmed they are campaigning for a ‘No’ vote in Sunday’s poll.

Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down
Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off

Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off

30 June 2015

We expected this week to be one of fast moving events, and that’s how it’s playing out. Greek PM Alex Tsipras has been speaking saying that he will do whatever he can to protect the Greek people

Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off
Markets Today: The Real Thing

Markets Today: The Real Thing

29 June 2015

Well, we didn’t see that coming, neither did the Institutions (nee Troika), nor the markets. Greece has pulled the negotiations plug at the last minute and put the deal to a national referendum (5 July) AFTER the deadline for payment (1 July).

Markets Today: The Real Thing
Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?

Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?

26 June 2015

If you had come in this morning, looked at the news released on the US economy overnight and how the US bond and equity markets had traded, you would not be surprised at all with the prices on the screen this morning, irrespective of what has and has not been going on as far as Greece is concerned.

Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015

25 June 2015

Consumer anxiety rose despite falling concerns over government policy post the federal budget. More consumers are paying off debt and spending more on “essentials” however, fewer consumers cut back their spending on “non-essentials”.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015
Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed

Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed

24 June 2015

All is well, solved, sorted; just not signed. Markets are pretty content with the idea that Greece and its creditors will do a deal before the June 30 deadline. And the Fed will hike in September, and China can avoid an equity market accident.

Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed
Markets Today: Waiting for Godot

Markets Today: Waiting for Godot

23 June 2015

Except he never came. We wait, there is a vast amount of commentary and expectation, and even a fair degree of optimism. And nothing might happen for a few days at least. But in this case, there will be an endpoint.

Markets Today: Waiting for Godot
Australian Weekly Markets:  Last chance for Greece, again

Australian Weekly Markets: Last chance for Greece, again

22 June 2015

Here we are again, still writing about Greece. Will a deal be put together that is acceptable to Greece and its creditors? Greece is asking for debt relief, Europe asking for further economic reforms to pensions and taxation. The 11th hour for Greece is approaching, yet again.

Australian Weekly Markets:  Last chance for Greece, again
Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)

Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)

19 June 2015

A fairly big slug of US economic data last night – admittedly not all of its top drawer – collectively added up to progress, on the real economy at least, towards the commencement of Fed tightening in coming months.

Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)
The Indian trade boom

The Indian trade boom

18 June 2015

The past decade has seen remarkable growth in the trading relationship between India and Australia, with two-way trade in goods and services reaching $14.8 billion in financial year 2013-14.

The Indian trade boom
Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself

Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself

18 June 2015

The FOMC meeting was a bit of a mark-to-reality exercise for markets, after perhaps getting a little ahead of itself. This applies both to the intra-day moves and the direction over recent weeks.

Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself
Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation

Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation

17 June 2015

There is a nervous tinge to the commentary overnight, but market moves have been relatively light, and the same is expected for today. Equities are modestly higher in the US and Europe, yields are lower generally, while the USD outperformed.

Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation
China Economic Update – 15 June 2015

China Economic Update – 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

An open capital account will end financial repression but still a slow path to reform. This report is the first of two looking into capital account liberalisation in China. This report looks at the domestic implications of this reform.

China Economic Update – 15 June 2015
China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015

China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015

16 June 2015

China’s partial economic indicators broadly stable in May, but weak enough for the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). In June, PBoC cut their economic growth forecast for 2015 from 7.1% to 7.0%. For now, our economic forecasts remain unchanged.

China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015
Markets Today: Greek nonchalance

Markets Today: Greek nonchalance

16 June 2015

Given the news that greeted the incoming Asia-Pacific market on Monday morning – that talks between Greece and her creditors in Brussels on Sunday had collapsed after just 45 minutes

Markets Today: Greek nonchalance
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015

15 June 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index rebounded in May – up 4.2% in AUD terms and 3.4% in USD terms. The improvement comes off the back of higher beef, lamb, wool, fruit, vegetables and pulses prices, offsetting further declines in dairy.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015
Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon

Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon

15 June 2015

After markets last week ended with a whimper rather than a bang, things have already heated up this morning with news on Sunday evening from Brussels that the latest talks aimed at bridging the differences between Greece and her creditors have collapsed.

Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon
Oil Market Update – June 2015

Oil Market Update – June 2015

12 June 2015

Oil prices rebounded sharply in April and May, benefiting from a confluence of factors: a stall in the USD rally, signs of slowing inventory build-up in the US, as well as unabated geopolitical volatility in the Middle East marked by Yemen civil unrests.

Oil Market Update – June 2015
Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue

Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue

12 June 2015

It’s been a whippy, but in the event, mostly an up week for the AUD, starting with a better NAB Business Survey for May, disappointing consumer confidence, RBA’s Stevens keeping the rate easing door ajar and yesterday’s strong employment report.

Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue
Markets Today: Wheeler dealer

Markets Today: Wheeler dealer

11 June 2015

To the evident delight of a section of the offshore hedge fund community, the RBNZ has just delivered on its recently instated easing bias, with a 25-point cut to the OCR to 3.25% and accompanied by a statement that further easing may be appropriate.

Markets Today: Wheeler dealer
Monthly Financial Markets Update – June, 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – June, 2015

10 June 2015

The US Federal Reserve expects the US unemployment rate will fall to 5% by year end. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia is hoping lower interest rates will translate to a lower Australian dollar which would help the non-mining sectors.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – June, 2015
The World on two pages – June 2015

The World on two pages – June 2015

10 June 2015

NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, followed by a modest upturn in 2016 (largely driven by the US). And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.

The World on two pages – June 2015
Markets Today: All about the yields

Markets Today: All about the yields

10 June 2015

You’d think it was a quiet night overnight: US equities were flat, European stocks a little down and currencies traded in a very tight range.

Markets Today: All about the yields
India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015

India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015

9 June 2015

The Indian economy expanded by 7.5% over the year to March 2015. Services, followed by Industry, were the best perfromers however agriculture contracted raising concerns about urban-rural divide. Industrial production activity is expected to gain momemtum in the second half of the year and NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.8% expansion in 2015, followed by 8% in 2016.

India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015

9 June 2015

There was no evidence of an acceleration in the pace of global growth in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and similarly mixed trends among the big emerging economies saw China slowing, India picking up and Brazil still very weak.

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015

9 June 2015

The recent Federal Budget and interest rate cut appears to have had a positive impact on business confidence – which moved up significantly in May - from +3 to +7 index points. This is the highest level of confidence since August 2014 and has helped to turn the trend more positive.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015
Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?

Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?

9 June 2015

The first port of call for some Australian market participants this morning, returning to work after a three day weekend and having just caught up on Friday’s all-important US employment report, might be to their IT department to complain the prices on their screens are all wrong.

Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015

5 June 2015

April saw a renewed rise in beef and lamb prices, combined with stability across major grains, balanced against lower dairy, fruit and vegetable prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015
Markets Today: Another step down the road we go

Markets Today: Another step down the road we go

5 June 2015

As has been touted in recent days, the IMF confirmed that Greece has asked the IMF to bundle its four June payments into one, delaying therefore the €301mn payment due to the Fund tonight

Markets Today: Another step down the road we go
Markets Today: Got To Expect it

Markets Today: Got To Expect it

4 June 2015

Well if Mr Draghi says it is so, we’d better get used to it. Bond yields, particularly in Germany, continued their rise yesterday; despite the ECB’s Draghi telling us that they are committed to their QE program.

Markets Today: Got To Expect it
Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields

Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields

3 June 2015

Big moves overnight, not all of them consistent, but they may have caught out investors positioning for a rise in risk aversion. As news of a possible deal between Greece and its creditors came in, bond yields – led by Germany, rose sharply.

Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields
Gold Market Update – June 2015

Gold Market Update – June 2015

2 June 2015

In May, gold prices averaged at around US$1199 per ounce, largely unchanged compared to April. This reduction in volatility has largely been associated with contained macroeconomic volatility, as most major economies continue to be on a path of gradual recovery.

Gold Market Update – June 2015
Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015

2 June 2015

The changing composition of China’s growth model – towards services rather than heavy industry – means it is less commodity intensive than in the past.

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015
Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)

Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)

2 June 2015

Incoming US economic data continues to rule the roost, last night’s batch encompassing the manufacturing ISM (strong), construction spending (very strong) personal income (strong), spending (weak) and the personal consumption deflators (weak).

Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece faces very tough few months

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece faces very tough few months

1 June 2015

A big week with Q1 Australian GDP, the RBA’s June Board Meeting and US non-farm payrolls for May at the end of the week. Greece faces a tough three months, with large debt, loan and interest payments due between June and August. In our highlighted article, we focus on different scenarios for Greece and what they mean for the EUR and AUD.

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece faces very tough few months
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015

1 June 2015

Post-farmgate conditions were lower than expected despite the March and June quarters generally being seasonally the weakest quarters in the NAB Post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey.The weakness in the results likely reflects mixed climatic conditions.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015
Markets Today: Four more sleeps

Markets Today: Four more sleeps

1 June 2015

US revised Q1 GDP came in at -0.7% so not quite as weak as the -0.9% expected (and note any upward revision from a review of seasonal adjustment methodology will not arrive until the Q2 estimate is first released in late July).

Markets Today: Four more sleeps
Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece

Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece

29 May 2015

Greece news and chatter continues to permeate markets as Greece gets closer to the first payment to the IMF due June 5. Reports of continued losses at Greek banks and deposit outflows continues to weigh on sentiment as liquidity remains at a premium.

Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece
Insights from Dr Ben Bernanke from the World Business Forum

Insights from Dr Ben Bernanke from the World Business Forum

28 May 2015

Dr Ben Bernanke, former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, discussed his experience of the global financial crisis (GFC), his views on global growth, the stability of the financial system and where critical economies like China are heading.

Insights from Dr Ben Bernanke from the World Business Forum
Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs

Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs

27 May 2015

Seemingly there were many “light bulb” moments overnight, when competing ideas, that have been around awhile, suddenly gain traction and markets run with them.

Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs
Japanese Economic Update – May 2015

Japanese Economic Update – May 2015

26 May 2015

Japan's unemployment rate has fallen, it's weak currency benefited its Current account and led to a surge in the stock market and Japanese banks are stable, well-capitalised and moderately profitable.

Japanese Economic Update – May 2015
Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock

Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock

26 May 2015

Tick tock, tick tock – that’s both the sound of time passing on one of the quietest days in the markets but also that of the countdown to Greece needing to come to an agreement with its creditors.

Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock
Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts

Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts

22 May 2015

The Euro-zone preliminary PMI readings for May hit the screens early in the European session, revealing something of a net recovery for the Euro-zone, the manufacturing index up to 52.3 from 52.0.

Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts
Markets Today:  7th Heaven

Markets Today: 7th Heaven

19 May 2015

They might not exactly be skipping across Martin Place to work this morning, but there should be at least a small smile on the faces of RBA Board members that the Aussie dollar is trading back on a ‘7’ handle, following a night during which the US dollar had been bid across the board.

Markets Today:  7th Heaven
Highlights from NAB’s 2015 Federal Budget Breakfast

Highlights from NAB’s 2015 Federal Budget Breakfast

15 May 2015

Incentivising small business to grow is part of creating confidence and that’s good news for the economy. Hear from our panel of experts as they discuss the 2015 Federal Budget and the impact it will have on business and the economy.

Highlights from NAB’s 2015 Federal Budget Breakfast
Market Today: and relax

Market Today: and relax

15 May 2015

After Wednesday night’s excitement, there was a collective deep breath overnight, with some of the preceding moves reversed. There was little newsflow but what there was allowed for some relaxation of the prior day’s anxiety.

Market Today: and relax
2015 Federal Budget Briefing

2015 Federal Budget Briefing

13 May 2015

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2015 Federal Budget. The report outlines the key budget measures and explains the economic and fiscal outlook as a result of last night’s announcement.

2015 Federal Budget Briefing
Alan Oster’s Budget Verdict

Alan Oster’s Budget Verdict

13 May 2015

Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist NAB, provides a summary of the impact the budget will have on everyday Australians, business confidence and what he believes it will do for the Australian economy.

Alan Oster’s Budget Verdict
China Economic Update – 12 May 2015

China Economic Update – 12 May 2015

12 May 2015

Increasing productivity is one of China’s most critical challenges over the next few decades and education is a key factor in raising the average level of productivity.

China Economic Update – 12 May 2015
Monthly Financial Markets Update – May, 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – May, 2015

11 May 2015

The US economy recorded slower jobs growth in April while GDP growth slowed to a crawl. This means the US Federal Reserve may delay raising interest rates until September. In Australia, jobs growth was higher than expected while core inflation sits comfortably in the middle of the Reserve Bank’s target range.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – May, 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015

11 May 2015

Business confidence was unchanged in April. Until confidence lifts significantly it is difficult to see a sustained economic recovery developing – to date rate cuts have not appeared to do much and it will be interesting to see what this week’s Federal Budget will do.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015
Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week

Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week

11 May 2015

The April US employment report proved to be a ‘Goldilocks’ affair for markets, not strong enough to detract from the view a first Fed tightening probably won’t happen at least before September

Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week
Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band

Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band

8 May 2015

If you pull an elastic band hard enough, it will snap back and might hurt. It seems we are getting that in yields, but we know that the band runs out of energy at some point.

Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

7 May 2015

ASX 300 business confidence fell further in Q1 2015 to remain well below the general economy. Sentiment is particularly weak among very large construction firms. Business conditions while still positive also fell, with trading, profitability and employment all lower.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015
Markets Today: What a tangled web

Markets Today: What a tangled web

7 May 2015

We are likely in for an interesting debate ahead: Central banks lower policy accommodation to astonishing levels and then suggest that markets might be a touch expensive.

Markets Today: What a tangled web
Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie

Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie

6 May 2015

It’s been a very eventful past two sessions for the AUD that sits atop the major FX leader board, trading at 0.7935 in early trade this morning. The reaction of the AUD immediately after the RBA statement said it all.

Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2015

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2015

5 May 2015

The latest NAB online retail sales index shows sales experienced growth of 0.8% in March, seasonally adjusted. At 0.3%, the trend estimate for Online retail sales slowed relative to February, but remained positive. We estimate that online sales are now 8.0% higher compared to a year ago.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2015
Markets Today: Stand and deliver

Markets Today: Stand and deliver

5 May 2015

A night of recent ranges as far as the major currencies was the order of the overnight session, the AUD/USD marking time ahead of the RBA decision today at 2.30pm. As background to the $A, iron ore spot prices pulled back again yesterday by $0.95 to $56.18, gold rose 1.13% and LME copper by 1.0%.

Markets Today: Stand and deliver
Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events

Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events

4 May 2015

The US Treasury bond yield back-up continued on Friday, but this time not led by Europe, where the 10yr Bund yield was up just 0.7bp to 0.373% in a holiday thinned European May Day .

Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events
Markets Today: May Day

Markets Today: May Day

1 May 2015

Today is a holiday in much of Asia and Europe (Happy May Day) but that doesn’t stop the dataflow.

Markets Today: May Day
US Economic Update – 30 April 2015

US Economic Update – 30 April 2015

30 April 2015

U.S. GDP growth slowed to a crawl in the March quarter. Details were weak, with the major support for growth coming from inventories. We expect the slowdown will be temporary and above trend growth to resume.

US Economic Update – 30 April 2015
Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015

Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015

30 April 2015

SMEs’ quarterly business conditions remained largely stable in the first quarter of 2015, with firms from all tiers showing broadly similar conditions from the previous quarter. SME trading and profitability conditions have deteriorated, offset by improved employment conditions overall.

Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015
Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?

Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?

28 April 2015

Eurozone markets have been cheered by reports that Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has been removed from the debt-deal negotiation table by his prime minister. Varoufakis’ hard-ball tactics have been a source of huge frustration for the Brussels group of international creditors.

Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?
Markets Today: When less is more

Markets Today: When less is more

27 April 2015

Almost without irony, we have to report that Friday’s US durable goods orders report was sufficiently weak to power US stock indices to new record highs, such was the ‘zero for longer’ interpretation of the data. Not the better than expected +4% headline read-out, but the core numbers for capital goods that exclude both (exceptionally strong) Boeing aircraft orders and also relatively strong auto orders.

Markets Today: When less is more
Markets Today: The battle for the low end

Markets Today: The battle for the low end

24 April 2015

It was a case of softer than expected readings on both sides of the Atlantic overnight, but in the wash up, the market was inclined to give more credence to the softer suite of US economy reports than for Europe’s.

Markets Today: The battle for the low end
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

23 April 2015

Business confidence dropped back again in the first quarter of 2015, falling even further below the long run average level. This is consistent with a pull back in confidence in the February monthly survey, although this was completely unwound in March.

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015
Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return

Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return

23 April 2015

AUD/NZD parity party celebrations will just have to be put back into the cupboard for now, courtesy of yesterday’s higher than expected AU CPI, headline and underlying inflation higher by up to a tenth.

Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return
Markets Today: Parity party anyone?

Markets Today: Parity party anyone?

22 April 2015

Watching the horrific wind and rain maps of the Sydney area must have seen many planes circling and hoping to land or simply stuck on the tarmac. Markets were also in a holding pattern overnight.

Markets Today: Parity party anyone?
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015

21 April 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, fell 1.7% (AUD) and 3.3% (USD) in March, led by lower beef, lamb, fruit, vegetable and sugar prices. Partial data for April to date points to a recovery in beef and lamb prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q1 2015

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q1 2015

21 April 2015

NAB’s Residential Property Index rises as stronger house price growth offsets falling rents. Sentiment is up in all states except WA which remains deeply negative. Foreign buyers are more active in NSW (1 in 5 new sales) and are now at similar levels to Victoria.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q1 2015
China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015

China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015

15 April 2015

China’s economy expanded by 7.0% in Q1 2015, down from 7.3% in Q4 2014. This was the weakest rate of growth since March 2009 – when China was at its lowest point during the GFC. Our forecasts are unchanged – with China’s economy to grow by 7.1% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2016.

China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015
The World on two pages – April 2015

The World on two pages – April 2015

15 April 2015

Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. We have fine tuned but not fundamentally changed our forecasts– 2014/15 2.3% and 3.0% in 2015/16. The non mining sector is still struggling to offset the impact on domestic demand.

The World on two pages – April 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015

14 April 2015

Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. While the Euro-zone and Japan are experiencing upturns, recent US data has disappointed. We have delayed the Fed starting till September (or later) and reduced US GDP in 2015 to 2.7%.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015

14 April 2015

There were some tentative signs of improvement in the NAB Monthly Business Survey for March – with the post RBA cut fall in confidence reversed in March. Surprisingly, the lift was particularly pronounced in mining, although confidence is still lowest for this industry.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015
Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2015

13 April 2015

The US Federal Reserve has given itself the flexibility to raise interest rates from June, responding to record jobs growth. Meanwhile in Australia, consumer and business confidence has eased back in the most recent surveys, despite the recent interest rate cut.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2015
India Monetary Policy – April 2015

India Monetary Policy – April 2015

13 April 2015

The RBI held the benchmark Repo rate at 7.5% in its April Meeting which was largely anticipated, given the previously ‘front-loaded’ rate cuts in January and March. The RBI highlighted recent unseasonal rains had generated uncertainty and banks had not passed on the previous rate cuts.

India Monetary Policy – April 2015
US Economic Update – April 2015

US Economic Update – April 2015

10 April 2015

Economy has got off to a slow start in 2015. While we expect it to be a temporary slowdown, we have revised our 2015 forecast to 2.7% (previously 3.1%). If achieved, this would still represent an above trend rate of growth, and is consistent with further labour market improvement.

US Economic Update – April 2015
China Economic Update – 2 April 2015

China Economic Update – 2 April 2015

2 April 2015

China’s rapid industrialisation over the past few decades has provided considerable economic benefit for Australia – as a strong increase in trade and investment has increased the integration between the two countries, even before the recently negotiated free trade agreement.

China Economic Update – 2 April 2015
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2015

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2015

2 April 2015

Online retail experienced strong growth in February, with sales growing 1.7% compared to January (0.3%). This month’s NORSI trend growth result is much faster than that recorded in February 2014 (0.2%). We estimate that online sales are now 8.7% higher compared to a year ago.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2015
Australian States Handbook – April 2015

Australian States Handbook – April 2015

1 April 2015

The divergence between mining and non-mining state economies continues, although with mining investment now winding down it is the major non-mining economies that are starting to outperform. Budget positions improving but focus remains on reducing expenditure.

Australian States Handbook – April 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015

1 April 2015

Consumer anxiety rises again in Q1’15 after a short-lived improvement in the previous quarter, as concern over government policy overtakes cost of living as the single biggest cause of consumer stress. With overall anxiety increasing, consumers are cutting back on many “non-essentials”.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015
The 2014 Australia-China Trade Report

The 2014 Australia-China Trade Report

25 March 2015

Julie Bishop launched the 2014 Australia-China Trade Report. Commissioned by the Australia China Business Council (ACBC), one of Australia’s most respected China engagement forums and sponsored by NAB, the report examines bilateral trade between the two countries.

The 2014 Australia-China Trade Report
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014

24 March 2015

The December quarter 2014 saw a rebound in post-farmgate agribusiness conditions, confidence and expected conditions at both 3 and 12 months. However forward orders declined and profitability remained negative. Overall, the sector experienced a more optimistic December quarter.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014
Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March

23 March 2015

This week we look at: •The latest US FOMC statement and its implications; •The RBA Minutes, which reveal the Bank considered further reducing rates in March, but decided against moving at that meeting. How much longer might they be patient?; •The latest industry employment data to see how this fits with our view of the Australian economy; and •The main events coming up this week.

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March
China Economic Update – 18 March 2015

China Economic Update – 18 March 2015

19 March 2015

In early February 2015, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50 basis points. This was the first broad based cut to the RRR since May 2012 and it could release around RMB 612 billion in liquidity. The PBoC was quick to downplay the significance of this change.

China Economic Update – 18 March 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015

17 March 2015

The Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, gained 2.1% (AUD) and 0.5% (USD) in February on the back of higher fruit, dairy, fibre and pulses prices, which offset mixed performance across grains and protein.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015
US Economic Update – March 2015

US Economic Update – March 2015

16 March 2015

Partial data have been soft recently, perhaps partly reflecting severe weather conditions. With December quarter 2014 GDP also revised down, we have lowered our forecast for 2015 GDP growth to a still solid 3.1% (was 3.3%). Unemployment continues to fall.

US Economic Update – March 2015
Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely

Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely

16 March 2015

We preview this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and look to tomorrow’s RBA March Board Minutes. The focus will be on the Committee’s forward guidance and forecasts, and whether they can still be “patient” before beginning to normalise the stance of monetary policy.

Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely
China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015

China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015

12 March 2015

The annual meeting of China’s parliament commenced in early March. From an economic perspective, the key announcement was the lowered growth target – to ‘about 7%’ from ‘about 7.5%’ in 2014. Our forecasts remain unchanged – at 7.1% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2016

China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015
Monthly Financial Markets Update – March, 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – March, 2015

12 March 2015

A February interest rate cut and a strong company reporting season buoyed the Australian share market while overseas, resolution of Greek debt negotiations and continuing monetary stimulus, benefited developed global markets.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – March, 2015
The World on two pages – March 2015

The World on two pages – March 2015

11 March 2015

Global growth remains around 3%. Weaker prices for oil and other commodities will benefit spending power in most big advanced economies as well as in China. The domestic economy, in early 2015, has not gained momentum with another rate cut expected in the coming months.

The World on two pages – March 2015
India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015

India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015

10 March 2015

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley released his first full-year Budget on the 28th of February, 2015. The pace of fiscal consolidation was pushed back, with the 3% Deficit target now likely. Instead, there was a strong push for infrastructure spending.

India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015

10 March 2015

Global growth remains around 3% and, although the business surveys show a lift in sentiment in key advanced economies, there is still no clear evidence that the expected upturn in global growth to 3½% by the end of the year has commenced. Locally, we have not changed near term forecasts

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015
Monthly Business Survey – February 2015

Monthly Business Survey – February 2015

10 March 2015

The RBA’s 25bp cut to interest rates in February did not appear to have the desired effect on firms ‘animal spirits’, with confidence actually deteriorating in the month. The index is now at its lowest level since before the Federal election in 2013 and is well below the long run average.

Monthly Business Survey – February 2015
In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015

In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015

3 March 2015

Forecast production across summer crops remains divergent. Cotton is likely to see a significant fall in price year on year, as changes to Chinese subsidy arrangements and cheaper synthetic fibres eat into demand, outweighing the impact of reduced Australian supply.

In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

26 February 2015

Big business in Australia is losing confidence, affecting medium-term growth and capital expenditure plans. Overall confidence among larger firms has now fallen below its long-term average and is weaker than for smaller companies and the broader economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014
China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015

China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015

23 February 2015

Due to the Chinese New Year holiday period, there are limited partial economic indicators for January each year. That said, the data available points to a soft start – PMI measures are weak, imports slowed, inflation continues to soften and credit growth contracted.

China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015
Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014

19 February 2015

After reaching the highest levels since 2009 in the September quarter, SMEs’ quarterly business conditions fell in the December quarter for the first time since Q4 2013. Firms from all tiers: low/micro, mid and high, showed consistent declines in their overall business conditions.

Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014
Understanding the mindsets of US investors

Understanding the mindsets of US investors

17 February 2015

The US Private Placement market offers a rich source of long-term funds for a wide range of Australian corporates. Our latest survey reveals the key factors that influence US investor buying decisions and their expectations for 2015.

Understanding the mindsets of US investors
Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up

Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up

16 February 2015

If there was any take away from last week’s January labour force report it was that a gradual trend rise in Australia’s unemployment rate remains in place. And this is despite some modest increase in the underlying pace of new job creation.

Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up
US Economic Update – February 2015

US Economic Update – February 2015

16 February 2015

Following two strong quarters, US GDP growth decelerated in the December quarter to a still solid 2.6% qoq (annualised). The large fall in oil prices and the rise in the dollar are producing both winners and losers. Annual labour force growth in January matched civilian population growth.

US Economic Update – February 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015

16 February 2015

2015 brings an expanded Rural Commodities Index, which now includes 28 commodities, up from eight. The Index increased 5.6% in January in AUD terms, as sharply higher beef prices - and to a lesser extent higher lamb, dairy and vegetable prices - offset mixed performance across grains.

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015
Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015

13 February 2015

Based on adjusted World Steel data, global steel production rose by 3.5% in 2014 to total 1.64 billion tonnes. Prices for metallurgical coal have remained comparatively stable since March 2014. Spot prices for thermal coal have continued to drift lower.

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015

13 February 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. This has been reflected in lower prices for a number of industrial commodities. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015
The higher education sector: A new borrower in the market

The higher education sector: A new borrower in the market

12 February 2015

Government funding for new infrastructure in the higher education sector has recently dried up. As a result, a number of universities are accessing capital markets and bank loans for their infrastructure financing needs – in turn offering significant opportunities for debt providers.

The higher education sector: A new borrower in the market
China Economic Update – 12 February 2015

China Economic Update – 12 February 2015

12 February 2015

In 2014, China’s crude oil imports came to US$228 billion – accounting for almost 19% of the country’s total imports by value and around 2.5% of total GDP. Sustained lower oil prices will therefore reduce China’s financial outflows, providing a significant boost to the economy.

China Economic Update – 12 February 2015
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2014

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2014

11 February 2015

Sentiment in commercial property markets softened in Q4 after September’s promising gains. Retail sentiment (and to a lesser extent industrial) buck the trend, offset by falls in CBD hotels and office. Forward indicators are painting a mixed picture of the market.

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2014
Monthly Financial Markets Update – February 2015

Monthly Financial Markets Update – February 2015

10 February 2015

Global equity prices in developed markets lost 0.5% in January, with strong gains in Europe offset by weakness in the United States. Australian shares rose 3.3% while the Australian dollar fell four cents to US$0.78, against a strengthening US Dollar.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – February 2015
Monthly Business Survey – January 2015

Monthly Business Survey – January 2015

10 February 2015

The latest survey shows that business confidence edged up a little, but it's still below long run averages. Confidence remains very weak in mining, consistent with lower commodity prices, but multi-year lows for the AUD likely contributed to a considerable improvement from last month.

Monthly Business Survey – January 2015
Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off

9 February 2015

The week opens with two conflicting pieces of economic news for markets, the strong US payrolls report and weak China trade data. NAB has also revised lower its $A forecasts. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for January surprised on the high side.

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off
Oil Market Update – February 2015

Oil Market Update – February 2015

6 February 2015

After the drastic falls towards the end of 2014, oil indexes started to exhibit some tentative signs of stabilisation since mid-January. Prices traded mainly around mid to high USD40s a barrel in the second half of the month, before breaking above USD50s in the first week of February.

Oil Market Update – February 2015
RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%

RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%

4 February 2015

The RBA’s Board has made the decision to reduce rates earlier than NAB expected, but for similar reasons we expected a modest rate reduction in March. It suggests growth will be below trend for somewhat longer – and the unemployment rate will peak a little higher – than earlier expected.

RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

4 February 2015

Business confidence eased back in Q4, dropping below the long run average level. Sentiment and business conditions are generally consistent with a ‘patchwork’ economy. Outside of construction and services, conditions remain soft in all other industries.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2014

4 February 2015

Online retail experienced a modest growth in December, with sales growing 0.1% compared to November (-0.3%), and 8.9% higher compared to a year ago. In dollar terms, we estimate Australians spent $16.4 billion on online retail in the 12 months to December 2014.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2014

US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2014

2 February 2015

U.S. GDP growth decelerated in the December quarter to a still solid 0.65% qoq (2.6% on an annualised basis). This suggests that the economy is growing at an above long-term trend rate. As a result, unutilised capacity in the economy continues to decline.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2014
Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy

Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy

2 February 2015

Another big week coming up, with the RBA’s first Board meeting of the year tomorrow, the much-awaited retail sales reading for December on Thursday, the RBA’s February Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday and US non-farm payrolls data for January on Friday night.

Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy
In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook

In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook

29 January 2015

Combined with strong industry fundamentals, Queensland saw significant rainfall during December 2014 and January 2015. In response, cattle prices have risen substantially as producers look to restock. However, despite this optimism, a number of challenges remain.

In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook
Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report

Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report

29 January 2015

NAB has released its first annual pulse check on the big issues facing Australia today. Important concerns include cost of living, access to healthcare, employment, the economy and terrorism/security concerns, while indigenous issues, infrastructure and transport and taxation are lowest.

Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014

29 January 2015

The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell slightly to 63 points in Q4 2014 (63.8 in Q3). Wellbeing was rated lower for all questions, especially “not anxious yesterday” which fell to its lowest level since the survey started. Wellbeing rated highest in Queensland and lowest in Victoria.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014
Emerging Commodities: Quinoa

Emerging Commodities: Quinoa

29 January 2015

Since 2008, global quinoa consumption has rapidly increased. In Australia, planting has been concentrated largely in Western Australia. While there are potential benefits from diversification for wheat producers, concerns remain around reliability of yield, weed control and marketing.

Emerging Commodities: Quinoa
FOMC Marks Time As RBNZ Drops Tightening Bias

FOMC Marks Time As RBNZ Drops Tightening Bias

29 January 2015

The USD Index is little changed, but yields are marginally lower after the Fed issued a post meeting Statement repeating it can be “patient” in beginning to normalise monetary policy.

FOMC Marks Time As RBNZ Drops Tightening Bias
The World on two pages – January 2015

The World on two pages – January 2015

28 January 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions (expansion in US, UK, India and China, weakness in Euro-zone, Japan, Latin America). Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.

The World on two pages – January 2015
Taking The USD Down A Peg

Taking The USD Down A Peg

28 January 2015

The USD stands lower this morning against all G10 currencies, on the back of remarkably weak US durable goods orders. The EUR was a key beneficiary, up as much as 1.6% for the day, before paring those gains to sit at 1.1360.

Taking The USD Down A Peg
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015

27 January 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries. Unemployment to continue to deteriorate but peak lower (6.6%) and later (Q4 2015).

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015
Monthly Business Survey – December 2014

Monthly Business Survey – December 2014

27 January 2015

The survey again shows a patchwork economy with little-to-no momentum building. In December, conditions eased for the second successive month after October’s surprisingly strong result so they're now a touch below the long run average.

Monthly Business Survey – December 2014
Markets homing in on the Euro

Markets homing in on the Euro

27 January 2015

The US$ ended last week on a strong note and started the week with more momentum, aided by further Euro weakness. The Greek election has come and gone with anti-austerity Syriza Party winning the largest number of seats with its young leader Alexis Tsipras the winner.

Markets homing in on the Euro
Looking forward to a good year

Looking forward to a good year

23 January 2015

2015 could be a very good year for agribusiness, with easier access to Asian markets and favourable economic conditions. Five of NAB’s leading commentators take a close look at the opportunities and share their tips on how to make the most of them.

Looking forward to a good year
Exceeding Consensus Boldly

Exceeding Consensus Boldly

23 January 2015

Our central expectation going in to the ECB meeting was that President Draghi would try to exceed expectations. He is a past master of this, very skilled at manipulating opinion and then over-delivering

Exceeding Consensus Boldly
Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies

Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies

22 January 2015

The Bank of Canada is the latest Central Bank to deliver a shock; cutting its main policy rate to 0.75% from 1.0% in a move which none of the 22 analysts surveyed had anticipated.

Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2014

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2014

21 January 2015

NAB Residential Property Index falls as house price expectations pared back and rents weaken. Sentiment softer in all states (and still deeply negative in WA). Almost 10% of all property is being purchased by first home buyers as an “investment”.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2014
US dollar regains its mojo

US dollar regains its mojo

21 January 2015

There’s a clear trend developing in global equity markets where expectations for monetary stimulus in Europe (ex-Switzerland of course!) are driving stocks higher whilst the prospect, or possibility, of Fed tightening combined with worries over corporate earnings are depressing

US dollar regains its mojo
China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015

China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015

20 January 2015

China’s economy continues on its gradual transition, away from a manufacturing hub towards a modern, consumption based economy. One signal of this trend is the increasing share of China’s services sector (tertiary industries), averaging 48% of GDP in 2014 (up from 47% in 2013).

China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015
The calm before the storm

The calm before the storm

20 January 2015

For the first time in well over a week, almost every currency is trading on the same big figure as it did 24 hours ago; the one exception being EUR/USD but even this is only 60 pips from where it opened Monday morning.

The calm before the storm
Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan

Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan

19 January 2015

Nothing could be clearer than the current economic and policy divide than between the US and Europe. As the Fed ponders rate lift-off and US consumer sentiment hits its highest level for 11 years, the ECB last week has been putting together a QE plan that will get some sort of approval from Germany.

Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan
US Economic Update – January 2015

US Economic Update – January 2015

16 January 2015

The US economy is currently enjoying a strong patch of growth. Small business confidence is at a recovery high, consumer confidence continues to increase, and household incomes - already benefiting from strong employment growth - are being further boosted by the fall in oil prices.

US Economic Update – January 2015
Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore

Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore

16 January 2015

The big news overnight was the completely unexpected Swiss National Bank abandoning its EUR/CHF 1.20 floor it’s been defending since September 2011. As recently as last week, the 1.20 floor was described by SNB President Thomas Jordan as “absolutely central” in light of negative inflation.

Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore
China Economic Update – 15 January 2015

China Economic Update – 15 January 2015

15 January 2015

In October 2014, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that China had overtaken the United States to become the world’s largest economy. This was the first time since 1872 that the US was not considered the world’s largest economy, when it overtook the United Kingdom.

China Economic Update – 15 January 2015
Commodity market volatility the order of the day

Commodity market volatility the order of the day

15 January 2015

There’s been some more significant price action in commodities to report from the past 24 hours. At lunchtime yesterday Asian LME metals prices went into free-fall on the back of no apparent news other than playing catch up to what we’ve seen on oil and maybe even the AUD.

Commodity market volatility the order of the day
Japanese Economic Update – January 2015

Japanese Economic Update – January 2015

14 January 2015

Japan is in the midst of major demographic changes, which have had significant implications for its economy and will continue to do so. Japan’s population is already declining, and with its society also ageing the drag on the workforce is potentially even greater.

Japanese Economic Update – January 2015
Still testing its specific gravity

Still testing its specific gravity

14 January 2015

Oil remains the centre of attention though the further dip not of the same cathartic proportions as the night before but enough it seems to continue to dog equity market sentiment, US energy stocks down another 1.2% with WTI and Brent down 0.4% and 0.8% respectively.

Still testing its specific gravity
Oil prices take another lashing

Oil prices take another lashing

13 January 2015

Oil prices have again been the stand out story overnight with Brent now clearly below $50/bbl, having tested below $50 last week, and both WTI and Brent down 5-5½% overnight to below $46 for WTI and currently $46.66 for Brent.

Oil prices take another lashing
Soft Wage Growth Rules The Day

Soft Wage Growth Rules The Day

12 January 2015

As we headed into the US employment reports, equities, bond yields, and the US Dollar were all modestly drifting lower. On the release, the positive headlines of strong payrolls growth and lower initially saw those shoot higher, before more than fully retracing those moves.

Soft Wage Growth Rules The Day
Funding Australia’s infrastructure future

Funding Australia’s infrastructure future

9 January 2015

Infrastructure Partnerships Australia estimates that $700 billion of funding is needed over the next decade to finance the long term infrastructure investments – the nation building – we need to secure our future. We look at the building blocks that are falling into place.

Funding Australia’s infrastructure future
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014

5 January 2015

The Index fell for the second straight quarter, with lower levels of concern reported across all categories. According to NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster, the cost of living and government policy continue to be the single biggest causes of anxiety for Australians.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014
Online Retail Sales Index – November 2014

Online Retail Sales Index – November 2014

22 December 2014

Online sales growth slows markedly in November with most categories following suit. Despite the general slowdown, at category level, Electronic Games and Toys maintained recent momentum. In dollar terms, Australians spent approxinately $16.3 billion on online retail.

Online Retail Sales Index – November 2014
Dovish or Hawkish? Take Your Pick

Dovish or Hawkish? Take Your Pick

19 December 2014

Risk appetite has continued to improve, with a promise from the Fed to be “patient” in normalising interest rates stoking equities.

Dovish or Hawkish? Take Your Pick
2014 Year in Review: Capital Financing

2014 Year in Review: Capital Financing

17 December 2014

As Steve Lambert, EGM Capital Financing, explains, 2014 was the year that opened up new opportunities for customers - from the new funding model for local government to the higher education sector emerging as a new borrower in the market. We review the year in our magazine.

2014 Year in Review: Capital Financing
Twenty Big Figures In One Session

Twenty Big Figures In One Session

17 December 2014

Another wild night in markets, and it is slightly to surprising to see equities post some decent gains. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed 2.3% higher with energy stocks leading the way, with some investors likely on the hunt for bargains in the still-negative risk environment.

Twenty Big Figures In One Session
Monthly Financial Markets Update – December 2014

Monthly Financial Markets Update – December 2014

16 December 2014

Global equity markets extended the October sharp rally through November, while gains were broadly based in Europe, Japan and the United States. Locally, fourth quarter data continues to show improvement in business credit and capital investment from non-mining sectors.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – December 2014
Markets whip-sawed across asset classes

Markets whip-sawed across asset classes

16 December 2014

Hard to know where to start this report with extremely whippy and severe movements across asset classes overnight. It was a wild night for all sorts of reasons, not the least being the siege in Sydney’s CBD that was ended in the early hours of this morning with a sad loss of life for some innocent people.

Markets whip-sawed across asset classes
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

15 December 2014

Last Friday saw the third annual pre-Xmas interview of the RBA Governor by the Australian Financial Review. The headlines were: "Governor wants an $A at 75cents" and "RBA pushes back on rates cuts".

Australian Markets Weekly
China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014

China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014

15 December 2014

There is a growing expectation that China’s Central Economic Work Conference will lower China’s economic growth target for 2015 – down from this year’s ‘about 7.5%’ to 7.0% – however this change may not be officially announced until the National People’s Congress meets next March.

China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014
Oil takes another hit

Oil takes another hit

15 December 2014

There was another step lower in oil prices on Friday night with Brent down another $1.69/bbl to $61.09 and WTI $-2.14 to $57.81. No surprise then that US consumers are rejoicing at the prospect of lower gasoline prices.

Oil takes another hit
US Economic Update – December 2014

US Economic Update – December 2014

10 December 2014

GDP growth is expected to strengthen in 2015 to 3.0%, from 2.3% in 2014. This reflects rising business and consumer confidence, improving household balance sheets, a strengthening labour market, solid investment conditions, declines in oil prices and a fading headwind from fiscal policy.

US Economic Update – December 2014
The World on two pages – December 2014

The World on two pages – December 2014

10 December 2014

Global growth remained around 3% yoy in Q3, sightly below trend but it is expected to pick-up to 3½% in 2015 and 2016. Major differences in the strength of economic activity persist between regions with the US, India and China accounting for almost 2 ppts of forecast global growth.

The World on two pages – December 2014
China Economic Update – December 2014

China Economic Update – December 2014

10 December 2014

In late November, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) surprised markets with cuts to benchmark interest rates. These changes were the first in over two years – the PBoC had held rates stable since early July 2012.

China Economic Update – December 2014
Monthly Business Survey – November 2014

Monthly Business Survey – November 2014

9 December 2014

Last months spike in business conditions was again short-lived, pulling back towards long run average levels in November. Despite the drop, the overall trend is still looking much better than 12-18 months prior, while levels of capacity utilisation have continued to improve.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014

9 December 2014

Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies underpin faster growth of 3½% in 2015 and 2016.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

8 December 2014

e week commences against the backdrop of Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report for November (which included favourable diffusion indexes and temp help trends signalling ongoing stronger outcomes).

Australian Markets Weekly
India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014

5 December 2014

The Indian economy expanded by 5.3% over the year to the September quarter. It's the second successive quarter of above-5% growth, and reflects a gradual upturn in the Indian economy. Financial services and Community services were the best performing sectors.

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2014

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2014

3 December 2014

Australia’s online retail spending increased to $16.19 billion for the year to October 2014, or by 11.9% annually. It now represents around 6.8% of traditional retail spending. The share of domestic spending continues to edge higher, now controlling 75.2% of total online spending.

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2014
Corporate Finance Insights – November 2014

Corporate Finance Insights – November 2014

26 November 2014

This report uses our expertise from across a range of industry sectors. In this edition, we present a compilation of articles with the underlying theme on change, and we ask NAB’s Chief Financial Officer for his view of the barriers and challenges for the Australian business landscape.

Corporate Finance Insights – November 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014

25 November 2014

General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, Khan Horne says the falling Australian dollar is a real boost for agriculture, and combined with the recent announcement of the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement, conditions for 2015 are looking positive for agricultural exporters.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014
China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights

20 November 2014

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) offers considerable potential for Australian agricultural and services firms as a result of their improved market access. Dairy, meat and horticulture stand to gain significantly while most resource exports will end up having duty free access.

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights
East Asian Emerging Market Economies – November 2014

East Asian Emerging Market Economies – November 2014

17 November 2014

Moderate sub-trend growth continues across the emerging market economies of East Asia (S Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, HK and Philippines). Growth in the region to increase gradually through the next couple of years.

East Asian Emerging Market Economies – November 2014
China Economic Comment – November 2014

China Economic Comment – November 2014

17 November 2014

Twelve months ago, China’s Government announced its reform agenda, following on from the Third Plenum. So far, progress on these reforms has been limited, primarily in social policies such as loosening the Hukou system – which we have argued could go further – and the One Child Policy.

China Economic Comment – November 2014
US Economic Update – November 2014

US Economic Update – November 2014

14 November 2014

The U.S. economy is growing at an above trend pace, with strong jobs growth. We expect the Fed to start raising rates in mid-2015. While there are signs wages growth is starting to strengthen, low inflation remains the main risk that may delay rate hikes.

US Economic Update – November 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014

14 November 2014

Divergent economic conditions around the world are having a net negative impact on commodity prices. Chinese GDP growth slowed to its lowest pace since early 2009, while parts of the economy that are key to industrial commodities remain comparatively weak.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014
China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014

China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014

14 November 2014

The cooler economic conditions experienced in the third quarter could continue into Q4 and further into 2015, reflecting the continued reluctance of Chinese policy makers to implement broad based stimulus. China’s industrial production growth also slowed slightly in October.

China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014
The World on two pages – November 2014

The World on two pages – November 2014

12 November 2014

Global growth remains moderate and sub-trend with big variations between key economies. China and North America represent around one-third of global GDP but they currently account for around half of global growth.

The World on two pages – November 2014
Monthly Financial Markets Update – November, 2014

Monthly Financial Markets Update – November, 2014

12 November 2014

Global equity markets staged a sharp turnaround in October. It was led by the US where their Federal Reserve reassured markets that interest rate rises remain data dependent. Meanwhile, there was additional modest improvement seen in Australian business and consumer confidence.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – November, 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014

11 November 2014

Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between the major economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies should underpin.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014
Monthly Business Survey – October 2014

Monthly Business Survey – October 2014

11 November 2014

Clearly the most surprising feature of the Survey was the sharp jump in business conditions in October (the largest monthly increase in the history of the survey). The improvement driven by sales and profits was relatively broad based –unlike the (short-lived) jump in July.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014

10 November 2014

China’s third quarter National Accounts showed the economy grew by its slowest rate since March 2009. From a bulk commodity perspective, key parts of China’s economy remain comparatively weak. Industrial production has slowed in recent months.

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

10 November 2014

After several low quarterly increases, we expect Wednesday’s Q3 wage data to show a small up-tick in the annual growth rate from 2.6% yoy to 2.7% in Q3.

Australian Markets Weekly
AUD higher after US jobs and Chinese trade

AUD higher after US jobs and Chinese trade

10 November 2014

The US payrolls report on Friday night was solid, despite the headline increase of 214K in October coming in below the 235K expected. September payrolls were revised up by 8k to 256k and August up by 23k to 203k.

AUD higher after US jobs and Chinese trade
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014

7 November 2014

Australians are giving more to charity than ever before, with the average annual donation size for all charities increasing by 3.6 per cent ($11) to $315 per donor. Overall charitable giving growth also continues an upward trend, increasing by 6.4 per cent in the 12 months to August 2014.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2014

US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2014

6 November 2014

GDP grew by 3.5% qoq (annualised rate) in the September quarter, a strong above trend result. While we expect that growth may slow in the December quarter, it should still be consistent with around 3% annualised growth in the second half of 2014.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014

30 October 2014

The latest Post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey shows that while the sector experienced a difficult September quarter, expected conditions for the coming 12 months remain in positive territory at +5.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014

30 October 2014

SME business confidence eased slightly, continuing the trend decline from the peaks seen around last year’s Federal election. While this result is consistent with the ongoing sluggishness of demand in the domestic economy (excluding exports)…

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

30 October 2014

ASX 300 business confidence gained momentum in the September quarter, surpassing the broader economy. Conditions were broadly unchanged - trading and profitability were stronger, however the slight improvement was offset by deteriorating employment…

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2014

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2014

29 October 2014

Overall sentiment in Australian commercial property markets turns positive for the first time since early-2011, but WA continues to weaken. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said "NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose to +2 points in Q3, its first positive read since March 2011.”

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

27 October 2014

Fairly quiet week for scheduled data and events in Australia but more action overseas, particularly in the US where the Federal Reserve will end their bond buying or quantitative easing programme

Australian Markets Weekly
Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

27 October 2014

Business confidence was unchanged in Q3, remaining close to the long run average levels. However, our monthly survey shows that the momentum has turned, with confidence easing steadily over the quarter.

Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014
MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey – Q3 2014

MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey – Q3 2014

23 October 2014

Nearly half of Australians are undecided on whether they will have to sell the family home to fund their retirement, the latest MLC Wealth Sentiment Survey has found. The quarterly survey has found 11% of Australians already plan to sell the family home to fund their retirement…

MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey – Q3 2014
China Economic Update – 22 October 2014

China Economic Update – 22 October 2014

23 October 2014

China’s latest economic data was a mixed bag – with many measures comparatively negative (against the trends of recent years) but stronger than somewhat pessimistic market expectations. While year-on-year GDP growth was at a five year low, the growth rate remaining above 7% will likely…

China Economic Update – 22 October 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014

23 October 2014

The overall price outlook for rural commodities stabilised somewhat in September and early October as a falling AUD blunted the impact of lower global prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014
Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices

Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices

17 October 2014

Residential electricity prices consist of wholesale, network, environmental policies (such as the Renewable Energy Target), and retail costs and margins. In Q3, wholesale costs were affected by the removal of the carbon tax as well as changes to regulated prices in some States.

Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2014

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2014

15 October 2014

NAB Residential Property Index unchanged with stronger house price expectations offset by weaker rental prospects. Sentiment continues to soften in WA (an all time low). Big pick-up in foreign buying activity in new property (especially VIC) and tipped to rise further.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2014
The World on two pages – October 2014

The World on two pages – October 2014

15 October 2014

Global growth was around 3% in the first half of 2014, below trend and with marked variations in performance between major economies. North America continues to perform strongly with solid growth in both the US and Canada.

The World on two pages – October 2014
China Economic Comment – October 2014

China Economic Comment – October 2014

15 October 2014

China’s changing healthcare needs require major changes to the system to avoid economic pain. The population is ageing and life expectancy is rising. With these two trends, demand for healthcare services is set to increase – particularly given the growing incidence of non-communicable diseases.

China Economic Comment – October 2014
MTN Market update

MTN Market update

15 October 2014

Director, Corporate Debt Markets Origination at NAB, Brad Scott discusses the recent developments in the Market Term Notes (MTN) market, along with the outlook for the rest of the year and the opportunities that are opening up for investors.

MTN Market update
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014

14 October 2014

Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with GDP expanding by a sub-trend 3% yoy and concern over weakness in Japan and the Euro-zone offsetting solid growth in the US and UK. Chinese forecasts unchanged.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014
Monthly Business Survey – September 2014

Monthly Business Survey – September 2014

14 October 2014

Business confidence lost ground in September –lowest level since pre election - in the face of a persistently soft operating environment for many firms. Forward orders remained soft, prompting de-stocking and competitive pricing which appears to have weighed on profitability.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2014
Monthly Financial Markets Update – October 2014

Monthly Financial Markets Update – October 2014

13 October 2014

While the US economy remains robust, Australian shares fell 5.4% as markets digested falling commodity prices, a weaker Aussie dollar and the possible introduction of policy brakes on housing credit, as James Wright, JBWere Chief Investment Officer reports.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – October 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

13 October 2014

A striking feature in recent times has been the divergence between the confidence of businesses and consumers.

Australian Markets Weekly
India Monetary Policy – October 2014

India Monetary Policy – October 2014

10 October 2014

The RBI held the policy Repo rate at 8% in its latest meeting – as broadly anticipated. The focus on meeting the 6% headline CPI outcome in January 2016 was reiterated.

India Monetary Policy – October 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014

9 October 2014

Recent global economic data and less favourable supply fundamentals have put downward pressure on many commodity prices. China, Europe and Japan were softer, while the U.S recovery appears to be gaining traction (US GDP grew at its fastest pace since 2011)…

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014
FOMC Fireworks

FOMC Fireworks

9 October 2014

Some quite explosive overnight price action and which has followed directly from the publication of the September FOMC meeting minutes. This has seen US equities jump by almost a percent.

FOMC Fireworks
US Economic Update – October 2014

US Economic Update – October 2014

8 October 2014

Indicators point to above trend growth in the September quarter of just over 3% qoq. Jobs growth was strong in September and the unemployment rate fell below 6% for the first time in over six years. Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months.

US Economic Update – October 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q3 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q3 2014

2 October 2014

The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index rose to 63.8 points in Q3 2014 (61.7 in Q2 2014). Wellbeing was rated higher for all measures, with the biggest improvements related to life satisfaction, worthwhile life and happiness.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q3 2014
Oil Market Update – September 2014

Oil Market Update – September 2014

2 October 2014

Since our last Quarterly Oil Market Update in June 2014, global crude oil prices have fallen sharply amid ample supply and weak demand combined with an increasing confidence that turmoil in Iraq is unlikely to disrupt supplies.

Oil Market Update – September 2014
AFR Special Report: Social Impact Investing

AFR Special Report: Social Impact Investing

30 September 2014

Following a recent NAB-hosted roundtable event on Social Impact Investing, The Australian Financial Review today released editorial covering the topic from two journalists who were in attendance, James Dunn and Jonathan Shapiro.

AFR Special Report: Social Impact Investing
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

29 September 2014

House prices have been rising briskly in Australia since late 2011. They continued to do so at the weekend with RP Data showing that prices were up in nearly all the major cities and auction clearance rates robust.

Australian Markets Weekly
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014

29 September 2014

The overall outlook for rural commodities deteriorated in August and September on account of a weak finish to winter rains in many areas combined with forecasts of abundant global grain supplies and lower prices for major agricultural commodities.

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014
Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)

Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)

29 September 2014

“The index shows that Australia’s engagement with Asia is dominated by product imports and not surprisingly, our engagement is clearly strongest with China across all sizes of business. But, it is higher for SMEs than the ASX 300” said Alan Oster.

Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)
A Tale of Two Numbers

A Tale of Two Numbers

25 September 2014

The juxtaposition of another significant downside Eurozone data surprise (German IFO) and a major upside surprise for US New Home Sales has – unsurprisingly – pushed the EUR below 1.28 against the US dollar for the first time since 10 July 2013.

A Tale of Two Numbers
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

22 September 2014

In their most recent quarterly RBA Bulletin released last week, the RBA published a summary of their business liaison program, how they use that to stay abreast of current business conditions and how it has been invaluable in providing warnings of any sudden changes in the business cycle.

Australian Markets Weekly
China Economic Comment – September 2014

China Economic Comment – September 2014

22 September 2014

Conditions in China’s real estate sector have slowed considerably across 2014. The sector has been a key contributor to economic growth in recent years and a slowing trend will impose greater pressure on other parts of the economy to provide growth momentum, particularly if the Government aims to maintain its current growth target.

China Economic Comment – September 2014
USD strength sees AUD fall again

USD strength sees AUD fall again

22 September 2014

The USD strengthened against all G10 currencies on Friday night, pushing the AUD to a new post-March low of 0.8921, and it has opened up just above that at 0.8935 this morning. The AUD was not helped by a further 1.6% fall in iron ore.

USD strength sees AUD fall again
Australia, New Zealand and China update

Australia, New Zealand and China update

19 September 2014

Financial Stability Review, RBA Governor a panellist at the Melbourne Economic Forum and second tier labour market data. Election tomorrow and Trade data next week.

Australia, New Zealand and China update
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2014

18 September 2014

Consumer anxiety moderates after the post budget jump, but some concerns remain elevated. The NAB Consumer Anxiety Index fell to 62.3 points in Q3 (64.5 points in Q2), led by a notable reduction in concern over the ability to fund retirement, cost of living and job security.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014

16 September 2014

Global economic data sent divergent signals to commodity markets in August. China’s outlook gave less comfort in comparison to the better US data. There was more movement in financial markets during the month. Meanwhile further sanctions on Russia were put on hold.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014
China Economic Update – 15 September 2014

China Economic Update – 15 September 2014

16 September 2014

Weaker than expected industrial production data is likely to generate headlines this month. However these results are not as negative as they may seem – reflecting in part the impact of stimulus in Q3 2013.

China Economic Update – 15 September 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

15 September 2014

Business confidence near multi-year highs yet consumer confidence near multi-year lows. Firms profitability being driven by productivity and constrained labour costs. Household income growth near zero over past two years – near recessionary levels.

Australian Markets Weekly
Monthly Financial Markets Update – September 2014

Monthly Financial Markets Update – September 2014

12 September 2014

With better US economic data, global markets were stronger in August. Locally, as James Wright, JBWere Chief Investment Officer explains, company reporting season was positive and stocks rewarded for delivering solid earnings, yields or capital management.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – September 2014
Gold Market Update – August 2014

Gold Market Update – August 2014

12 September 2014

Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US, and some recent…

Gold Market Update – August 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014

11 September 2014

Having fallen for much of the year, wholesale gas prices in the United States and Europe have begun to edge up slightly since July. With the northern summer now coming to a close, mild weather should keep prices in check until the onset of colder winter conditions sees gas use increase.

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014
The World on two pages – September 2014

The World on two pages – September 2014

11 September 2014

Weakness in Japan, stagnation in the Euro-zone and a hard landing in Latin America have resulted in a slowdown in the pace of global growth through the first half of 2014. World GDP growth reached 3.4% yoy in late 2013, it slowed to 3.1% yoy in March qtr 2014 and 2.9% yoy in June qtr.

The World on two pages – September 2014
US Economic Update – September 2014

US Economic Update – September 2014

11 September 2014

Indicators remain generally positive, consistent with our forecast of solid, above trend, growth of 3.0% qoq (annualised) in the September quarter. While August’s employment gain (142,000) was below expectations, the recovery in the labour market remains on track.

US Economic Update – September 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014

9 September 2014

Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with stagnation in the Euro-zone sparking deflationary concern and ECB action while Japanese demand is still struggling to recover from April’s tax rise.

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014
Monthly Business Survey – August 2014

Monthly Business Survey – August 2014

9 September 2014

Business confidence remains resilient despite easing a little in August, supported by positive forward orders, subdued cost pressures and more stable consumer confidence. Positive business conditions are also helping despite falling back in the month.

Monthly Business Survey – August 2014
Euro-zone update

Euro-zone update

9 September 2014

The European Central Bank has cut its key policy lending rate to only 5 bps, it's progressing its planned schemes for asset purchases and targeted lending to banks and has hinted that it could increase its balance sheet by around €1 Trillion, taking it back to its early 2012 size.

Euro-zone update
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

8 September 2014

The Government Statistician released the Q2 National Accounts last week which showed the economy doing quite well. Or at least a bit better than we feared given mining investment is slumping and commodity prices are falling.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australia, New Zealand and China

Australia, New Zealand and China

8 September 2014

Australia: Solid employment gain expected on Thursday. NAB Business Survey and Consumer Confidence also released next week. NZ: RBNZ to temper its OCR outlook in Thursday’s Monetary Policy Statement. China: Trade figures, CPI and industrial production.

Australia, New Zealand and China
Retail sales growing modestly in 2014

Retail sales growing modestly in 2014

5 September 2014

Australian retail sales rose 0.4% in July, a good result that builds on the 0.6% growth in June. We were expecting a stronger gain but it nevertheless reaffirms that the negative impact from the Federal Budget on retail spending in May was temporary.

Retail sales growing modestly in 2014
India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014

4 September 2014

The Indian economy expanded by 5.7% in the June quarter, the fastest pace in over 2 years. By sector, Services (Financial & Community services) and Industry were better performing, while Agriculture eased due to weaker monsoon conditions.

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014
Australian economy still growing in Q2

Australian economy still growing in Q2

3 September 2014

After (unrevised) growth of 1.1% in the March quarter, growth of 0.5% in Q2 with the known 0.9% drag from net exports was a more than respectable outcome. Headline growth was a tad above the 0.4% consensus and our own 0.2% call.

Australian economy still growing in Q2
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2014

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2014

3 September 2014

Australia’s online retail spending continues to increase following a period of more subdued growth and is now valued at around $15.6 billion for the year to July 2014. This represents annual growth of 8.6%, placing online at around 6.6% of traditional retail spending.

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2014
End of Summer complete with snooze

End of Summer complete with snooze

2 September 2014

It was particularly quiet overnight, with the US on holidays. The poor European and UK data didn’t worry markets much, which, in the main, were taking a little nap

End of Summer complete with snooze
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

1 September 2014

Blockbuster week in Australia with loads of key economic data, an RBA rate decision tomorrow, and a speech from the RBA Governor on Wednesday.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australia, New Zealand and China update

Australia, New Zealand and China update

29 August 2014

RBA on hold Tuesday, Stevens speaking and a soft GDP report Wednesday, along with mixed July data: strong retail sales but soft building approvals. Pre-Q2 GDP partials also due Mon/Tues; NAB Online retail index due Wednesday

Australia, New Zealand and China update
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014

29 August 2014

Australian beef prices are forecast to increase 3.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of a 4 per cent fall in production as producers rebuild herds, according to the latest NAB Agribusiness Rural Commodities Wrap.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

25 August 2014

As part of the current local reporting season last week, we heard that both the Gladstone and Australia Pacific LNG projects are on track and on budget.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian States Handbook 2014

Australian States Handbook 2014

22 August 2014

Australia’s Federal system of Government makes State Governments a critical part of the overall fiscal and economic performance of Australia. This handbook is intended to provide a comprehensive update and reference tool on both the economies and fiscal finances for each State.

Australian States Handbook 2014
RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce

RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce

20 August 2014

The RBA’s half-yearly testimony had a somewhat more positive tone without going overboard on growth specifics nor on when a more discernible upturn might arrive. (The Bank’s formal forecasts were of course outlined in their quarterly statement earlier).

RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

19 August 2014

Speaking with clients in Adelaide last week, it was something of a surprise that the NAB Business Survey improved further in July, with NAB Business Conditions making some further ground to now be above its long term average.

Australian Markets Weekly
Monthly Financial Markets Update – August 2014

Monthly Financial Markets Update – August 2014

14 August 2014

Despite US equity markets posting fresh records in July, a late, large fall saw equity markets finish lower. While valuations are stretched, JBWere Chief Investment Officer, James Wright, reports that the US economic recovery should support current earnings forecasts.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – August 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014

13 August 2014

Weak retail trade and net exports point to soft GDP growth in Q2. Headwinds remain, but business conditions jumped to four year high, while, business confidence, orders and capacity utilisation all looking better. We have trimmed our global forecasts.

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014

12 August 2014

Global growth remains moderate but monthly trade and industrial growth continues to slow. Economic conditions mixed between regions with solid upturns in the UK and US, weakness in Japan and signs of slowing in the Euro-zone. Emerging market economies still driving most global growth

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014
NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014

12 August 2014

Business confidence again surprised on the upside, supported by better business conditions (largely reflecting sales and profits) and a surge in retailer confidence. Firms still unfazed about the Budget (for now). Conditions jumped to a four year high

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014
India Monetary Policy – August 2014

India Monetary Policy – August 2014

12 August 2014

The RBI held the policy Repo rate at 8% in its latest meeting – as broadly anticipated. The Statutory Liquidity Rate was cut by 50bp to 22% to enable banks to free up capital for lending, and to boost their liquidity coverage.

India Monetary Policy – August 2014
US Economic Update – August 2014

US Economic Update – August 2014

12 August 2014

GDP bounced back strongly in the June quarter, growing at an annualised 4.0% rate. Early indicators for the September quarter are positive. Tapering of asset purchases under QE is continuing and we expect the end of the program to be announced after the Fed’s October meeting.

US Economic Update – August 2014
Japanese Economic Update – August 2014

Japanese Economic Update – August 2014

12 August 2014

The rise in the consumption tax rate has had the expected impact on the economy. Spending was pulled into the pre-tax months and has fallen sharply since the rate rose from 5% to 8% on April 1st. Although Japanese firms have told the central bank that the consequences of the tax rise

Japanese Economic Update – August 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian markets weekly

11 August 2014

A final word on the Australia-US labour market comparison we wrote about last week. We would not have been surprised to see the US rate lower than Australia’s rate by now before seeing July’s US non-farm payrolls and Australia’s Labour Force report as they had almost converged

Australian Markets Weekly
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014

11 August 2014

Commodity prices remained divergent in July, reflecting broadly positive but somewhat mixed economic data as well as flaring geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Crude prices fell in early July as concerns about a disruption to Iraqi oil supplies dissipated.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014

7 August 2014

Economic trends in China –the key consumer for bulk commodities –are mixed, with stabilising trends in the industrial sector (having slowed across Q1) in contrast to a slowing trend in the real estate sector (a major consumer of steel). Global steel production has continued to increase.

Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014
Base Metals Market Update – July 2014

Base Metals Market Update – July 2014

6 August 2014

On the demand side, industrial activity has improved in 2014, but recent indicators have been mixed. In China, the industrial sector appears to have stabilised following signs of moderation in recent months. Mini stimulus measures may have assisted the improvement.

Base Metals Market Update – July 2014
RBA Annoucement: RBA on hold; little change to the press release

RBA Annoucement: RBA on hold; little change to the press release

5 August 2014

The Reserve Bank of Australia made no change to policy at today’s meeting, as expected. There were minimal changes to the press release, and the RBA again concluded that “on present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.”

RBA Annoucement: RBA on hold; little change to the press release
US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2014

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2014

4 August 2014

GDP bounced back strongly in the June quarter, growing by a 4.0% annualised rate. The improvement was broad based and revisions to recent quarters were also positive. Early indicators for the September quarter are positive. We expect solid growth over the rest of the year.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2014

31 July 2014

Online retail showed further encouraging signs of growth in June, to be 0.9% higher compared to May, and 9.5% higher compared to a year ago. On the other hand, ABS data showed negative comparable sales growth at traditional retailers in May, to be 0.3% lower than April

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2014
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q2, 2014

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q2, 2014

30 July 2014

NAB Commercial Property Index fell -3 to -6 points in Q2 and continues to track below business confidence. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said: “Sentiment was weaker in all market segments, except CBD hotels, and also negative in all states, especially in WA.”

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q2, 2014
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

29 July 2014

Business confidence among Australia’s largest firms dropped significantly – from a position of above average confidence relative to the broader economy to marginally below. Businesses are reacting to the subdued domestic demand outlook.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014

28 July 2014

The 2014-15 Australian wheat season is off to a good start in most growing areas following autumn rain, and domestic prices are at a premium to international levels due to concerns about the impact of a dry spring.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014
India Budget 2014-15

India Budget 2014-15

25 July 2014

India’s new Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, delivered his maiden Budget on the 10th of July. It was a good document, albeit not a ‘game changer’, and needs to be followed up with further action and implementation. There were positives for consumers, infrastructure spending, real estate.

India Budget 2014-15
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014

24 July 2014

SME business confidence eased again in the June quarter, but is holding up against heightened consumer anxiety with the support of positive sentiment in property and construction. Conditions rose slightly, but are still at levels suggesting sub-trend growth.

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014
Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2014

Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2014

24 July 2014

The US equity market posted fresh highs in June, but price support remains good globally and locally, says James Wright, Chief Investment Officer, JBWere. Read more for currency and property news from the NAB FX Strategy team and Nick Ryder, NAB Private Wealth Investment Strategist.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2014
China Economic Comment – July 2014

China Economic Comment – July 2014

23 July 2014

The growth in China’s economy over the past thirty years has been extremely impressive, overtaking Japan in 2009 to become the world’s second largest economy. However when measured on a per capita basis, China’s economy still remains comparatively small – within the ‘middle income’ band.

China Economic Comment – July 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014

22 July 2014

The latest National Australia Bank (NAB) post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey reports that the sector remains overwhelmingly optimistic about business conditions over the next 12 months, despite the index falling in the June quarter.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014
Australian Markets Weekly: 21 July 2014

Australian Markets Weekly: 21 July 2014

21 July 2014

The quarterly inflation print is the most important statistic for financial markets in Australia. Several reasons why. First and most importantly the RBA is an inflation targeting central bank and this is their quarterly scorecard.

Australian Markets Weekly: 21 July 2014
China Economic Update – 17 July 2014

China Economic Update – 17 July 2014

18 July 2014

In late June, China’s politburo agreed to fiscal and taxation reforms that were outlined at last year’s Third Plenum, setting a deadline for implementation at the end of 2016. These reforms should provide greater transparency and predictability of local government revenues.

China Economic Update – 17 July 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q2 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q2 2014

18 July 2014

Australian wellbeing falls to its lowest level since the survey began. Anxiety is still the biggest detractor of overall wellbeing. A “wellbeing gap” has emerged between the highest and lowest income earners.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q2 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

17 July 2014

Business confidence eased a touch, but remains at relatively resilient levels post-budget. Business conditions improved marginally as underperforming industries improve. Forward indicators point to further modest improvement over coming months.

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2014

16 July 2014

Consumer anxiety spikes post the Federal Government’s budget, with low income earners clearly most concerned. The NAB Consumer Anxiety Index rose to 64.5 points in Q2 (61.7 points in Q1) - its highest level since the survey began in Q1’13.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2014
Canada Economic Update – July 2014

Canada Economic Update – July 2014

15 July 2014

The Canadian economy recorded a moderate 0.3% increase during the March quarter, 2014, impacted by weather related disruptions. Group Economics is forecasting a 2.3% expansion in 2014, followed by a somewhat quicker 2.5% in 2015

Canada Economic Update – July 2014
US Economic Update – July 2014

US Economic Update – July 2014

15 July 2014

The large fall in March quarter GDP is not matched by other indicators. Data for June quarter suggest growth will resume. Inflation has strengthened in recent months.

US Economic Update – July 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

14 July 2014

After seven years of negotiation Australia and Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement last week. Some call it a free-trade agreement but as one of my colleagues noted no trade is entirely free.

Australian Markets Weekly
US GDP Q1 2014 Update

US GDP Q1 2014 Update

11 July 2014

US GDP is now estimated to have declined by a recession like 2.9% qoq (annualized rate) in the March quarter. However, we still think the March quarter weakness is a one-off. Other indicators do not point to an economic downturn.

US GDP Q1 2014 Update
Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014

10 July 2014

After rising through 2013, the main business surveys have gone sideways in 2014 and the pace of global growth has slipped slightly. We have lowered our global GDP forecasts for 2014 from 3.4% to 3.2%.

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014

8 July 2014

Moderate global growth continues after early 2014’s slowing, resulting in slightly lower growth forecasts in 2014 but nearer trend in out years. Mixed picture among advanced economies as US & Euro-zone growth disappoints expectations but UK expansion stays solid...

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014
Monthly Business Survey – June 2014

Monthly Business Survey – June 2014

8 July 2014

Business confidence recorded an unexpected increase in the month, with firms apparently shrugging off the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence that followed May’s Federal budget. Firms are sticking to their expectation for stronger activity despite business conditions remaining

Monthly Business Survey – June 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

7 July 2014

Most of us like matters to be resolved quickly and with clarity. This is especially true of financial market folk: Is the economic outlook good or bad? If the RBA isn’t cutting they must be hiking?

Australian Markets Weekly
Australia, New Zealand and China update

Australia, New Zealand and China Update

7 July 2014

There are some more meaty reports due on the economy this week, commencing with the ANZ Job Ads report for June (L: -5.6%), a last partial look into labour demand ahead of Thursday’s labour force report.

Australia, New Zealand and China update
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014

7 July 2014

The relative price stability that characterised oil, in particular Brent, in the first half of 2014 has been shaken of late by unexpectedly severe sectarian turmoil in Iraq. However, with Iraqi exports largely unaffected, prices have now eased somewhat.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014
RBA Annoucement: RBA still uncomfortably on hold

RBA Annoucement: RBA still uncomfortably on hold

2 July 2014

Predictably the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 2.50%. They also retained their neutral bias – a small surprise – saying again that “the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates”.

RBA Annoucement: RBA still uncomfortably on hold
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2014

2 July 2014

Online retail sales growth rebounded in May, after a small decline in April. Online spending totalled $15.3 billion in the past year. Groceries & Liquor and Electronic Games & Toys continued to strengthen while Daily Deals and Personal & Recreational Goods experienced negative growth

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2014
Oil Market Update – June 2014

Oil Market Update – June 2014

1 July 2014

The relative price stability that characterised Brent and Tapis in the first half of 2014 has been shaken of late by unexpectedly severe sectarian turmoil in Iraq. After Mosul fell on 10 June, Brent jumped 4% in a week and broke through $115 per barrel by 19 June.

Oil Market Update – June 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

30 June 2014

A busy few weeks as we get a good number of timely indicators on the economy as well as the RBA’s latest assessment of developments at tomorrow’s Board meeting. Governor Stevens speaks on Thursday.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

24 June 2014

A light period for new data is an appropriate time to take stock of where the economy is at. Short answer is that the pace appears to be coming out of the interest rate sensitive consumer

Australian Markets Weekly
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014

24 June 2014

Supported by still-low bond yields and more positive economic data from China and the US, global equity markets maintained their upward trend in May to close higher in general. However, commodities markets were more mixed.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014
China Economic Comment – June 2014

China Economic Comment – June 2014

24 June 2014

As China’s economy has grown over the past decade, so too has China’s overseas investment. This has become a highly controversial issue in a number of countries, in part due to the difficulties faced by firms and individuals when attempting to invest in China

China Economic Comment – June 2014
East Asian Emerging Market Economies – June 2014

East Asian Emerging Market Economies – June 2014

23 June 2014

Moderate sub-trend growth continues across the emerging market economies of East Asia (S Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, HK and Philippines). Lack-lustre growth in world trade has dampened activity in this export-oriented region.

East Asian Emerging Market Economies – June 2014
China Economic Update – 16 June 2014

China Economic Update – 16 June 2014

19 June 2014

Partial economic indicators suggest that China’s economy has stabilised in recent months. These trends remain in line with our expectations, meaning that our forecasts for economic growth remain unchanged at 7.3% in 2014 and 7% in 2015.

China Economic Update – 16 June 2014
US Economic Update – June 2014

US Economic Update – June 2014

19 June 2014

The economy is now estimated to have gone backwards in the March quarter. However, indicators point to a bounce back in the June quarter. Recovery expected to continue over the rest of 2014 and into 2015. We expect growth of around 2¼% this year and 3% in 2015.

US Economic Update – June 2014
Monthly Financial Markets Update – June 2014

Monthly Financial Markets Update – June 2014

18 June 2014

Last month, investors ignored mixed economic data and geopolitical risks to push the US share market to a record high, reports James Wright, Chief Investment Officer, JBWere. Read more to also find out what happened in currency markets and the residential property market from Nick Ryder

Monthly Financial Markets Update – June 2014
Discover the opportunities within emerging Asian economies

Discover the opportunities within emerging Asian economies

17 June 2014

While China remains our biggest trading partner, other emerging Asian nations – including ASEAN, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan – are critical sources of imports and exports for Aussie SMEs. Understanding these regional economies and their distinct differences is critical.

Discover the opportunities within emerging Asian economies
India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014

India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014

13 June 2014

India’s economy expanded by 4.6% during the year to March quarter 2014; it increased 4.7% over the 2013-14 financial year. By industry, agriculture and financial services were the strongest performing; manufacturing and mining remained in recession.

India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014

12 June 2014

Bulk commodity markets recorded another relatively weak month –with iron ore prices continuing to ease (falling below US$100 a tonne), thermal coal prices remaining weak, while metallurgical coal eased higher –away from particularly low levels.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014

12 June 2014

The generally upward trend in advanced economy purchasing manager surveys began to fade through late 2013 and 2014 and that has been followed by a levelling out in the rate of growth in world trade and industrial output.

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014
Gold Market Update – May 2014

Gold Market Update – May 2014

11 June 2014

Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US.

Gold Market Update – May 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014

11 June 2014

In the past month, US natural gas prices moderated slightly on milder weather, but remained around 13% more than the same time last year on extremely low inventories. In contrast, the slide in European gas prices continued in May on low heating demand.

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014

10 June 2014

Global growth levelled off through late 2013 and early 2014, partly due to bad weather hitting North America. Advanced economy upturn looks set to continue as interest rates stay low and as the peak in fiscal consolidation has passed

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014
Monthly Business Survey – May 2014

Monthly Business Survey – May 2014

10 June 2014

Business confidence survived the government’s ‘tough budget’ intact, but business conditions eased again (reflecting sales). Employment and profits were steady at soft levels. Conditions are mixed across industries, but are generally negative outside of services

Monthly Business Survey – May 2014
Business View magazine – Winter 2014

Business View magazine – Winter 2014

4 June 2014

In this edition, Business View magazine highlights the success of businesses working with, inspired and supported by family. Our cover story features how Mildura Brewery owners Stefano de Pieri and wife Donata Carrazza successfully blend family and business.

Business View magazine – Winter 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014

26 May 2014

There are signs of stabilisation in the growth in the US and China: the US Fed proceeded with another US$10 billion cut in their monthly quantitative easing program to US$45 billion, while Chinese industrial activity gained some support from a series of targeted stimulus policies.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014
China Economic Comment – May 2014

China Economic Comment – May 2014

26 May 2014

China’s steel industry is the largest in the world and a key consumer of Australian commodity exports. The industry has been suffering in recent times due to excess capacity, weak profitability and its role in the air pollution crisis, prompting Government plans to rationalise the sector...

China Economic Comment – May 2014
India Election Update – May 2014

India Election Update – May 2014

26 May 2014

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won a landslide election victory in the recently concluded elections, with the BJP winning enough seats to govern in its own right. The result was welcomed strongly by financial markets, reflecting gains in both equities as well as the Indian Rupee.

India Election Update – May 2014
US Economic Update – May 2014

US Economic Update – May 2014

26 May 2014

GDP growth paused in the March quarter, but indicators point to a bounce back in the June quarter. The labour market continues to improve highlighted by a large fall in the unemployment rate in April. Other labour market indicators are also improving but more slowly...

US Economic Update – May 2014
China Economic Update – 13 May 2014

China Economic Update – 13 May 2014

26 May 2014

Partial economic indicators continue to highlight softening trends in China, evident since the latter part of 2013. These trends remain in line with our expectations, and as such, our forecasts for Chinese economic growth are unchanged at 7.3% in 2014 (before slowing to 7% in 2015).

China Economic Update – 13 May 2014
Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014

Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014

14 May 2014

Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey handed down the 2014 Federal Budget last night and there’s plenty to talk about. Our team of economists have analysed what it means for you, your business and a variety of key industries with our summary fact sheets.

Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014
What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure

What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure

14 May 2014

The infrastructure sector was one of the big winners in the Federal Budget, with the share of infrastructure spending rising in both dollar terms and as a share of government spending. This should go some way in helping to fill the void left by retreating mining investment.

What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure
What the Federal Budget means for the health sector

What the Federal Budget means for the health sector

14 May 2014

The key focus related to health in this year’s Budget is savings. The introduction of GP co-payments, changes to PBS provisions, Medicare safety nets and indexation arrangements will contribute significant savings. We assess the key initiatives impacting Australia’s health sector.

What the Federal Budget means for the health sector
What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness

What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness

14 May 2014

Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian agribusinesses. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.

What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness
What the Federal Budget means for the Education sector

What the Federal Budget means for the Education sector

14 May 2014

There’s a lot to talk about following last night’s Federal Budget announcement. NAB’s team of economists have analysed what last night’s Federal Budget means for the Education sector and outlined key initiatives.

What the Federal Budget means for the Education sector
Alan Oster’s overview – Federal Budget 2014

Alan Oster’s overview – Federal Budget 2014

14 May 2014

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster outlines the key features of Joe Hockey’s 2014 Federal Budget announcement and analyses how it may impact Australia’s economic outlook and financial markets.

Alan Oster’s overview – Federal Budget 2014
Business and personal tax changes from the Federal Budget

Business and personal tax changes from the Federal Budget

14 May 2014

The Federal Budget contained few tax surprises, with most of the key revenue changes previously announced by the Government, including the expected additional tax for high income earners, while the Indexation of Fuel Excise will impose an additional cost on both business and individuals.

Business and personal tax changes from the Federal Budget
Industry perspective: the Federal Budget and business funding

Industry perspective: the Federal Budget and business funding

14 May 2014

While some saw this as ‘the Budget we had to have’, the grants news is good. Overall funding for businesses is set to increase under measures proposed in the 2014 Federal Budget. GrantReady summarises what the Budget means for grants and funding programs.

Industry perspective: the Federal Budget and business funding
Industry perspective: Federal Budget and infrastructure

Industry perspective: Federal Budget and infrastructure

14 May 2014

Brendon Lyon, CEO of Infrastructure Partnerships Australia, says the 2014 Federal Budget is an excellent outcome for the national infrastructure sector. He shares his views on the largest-ever national infrastructure investment programme.

Industry perspective: Federal Budget and infrastructure
Fairfax summary: Federal Budget impacts to agribusiness

Fairfax summary: Federal Budget impacts to agribusiness

14 May 2014

The 2014 Federal Budget outlined some drastic measures for the agriculture sector – from changes to Landcare to additional RD&E funding. Colin Bettles, Canberra Bureau Chief, Fairfax Agricultural Media, shares his summary of the proposed measures.

Fairfax summary: Federal Budget impacts to agribusiness
Industry perspective: what the Federal Budget means for SMEs

Industry perspective: what the Federal Budget means for SMEs

14 May 2014

For small to medium business owners, the 2014 Federal Budget contained both certainties and uncertainties. Andrew Conway, Chief Executive Officer of The Institute of Public Accountants (IPA) shared his views on what the Budget means for the sector.

Industry perspective: what the Federal Budget means for SMEs
Alan Oster’s snapshot – Federal Budget 2014

Alan Oster’s snapshot – Federal Budget 2014

14 May 2014

NAB’s Group Chief Economist Alan Oster provides his overall summary of Joe Hockey’s 2014 Federal Budget, including his initial thoughts, how it could impact small and large business, and the wider economic implications for the Australian economy.

Alan Oster’s snapshot – Federal Budget 2014
Monthly Business Survey – April 2014

Monthly Business Survey – April 2014

12 May 2014

Business conditions more subdued in April but confidence up marginally – shrugging off ‘tough budget’ rhetoric. Sales eased slightly, employment slightly better but still soft, profits weaker. Conditions remain volatile and mixed across industries…

Monthly Business Survey – April 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

12 May 2014

Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014
2014 Federal Budget preview

2014 Federal Budget preview

9 May 2014

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster provides a pre-budget overview of what he thinks we can expect to hear from Treasurer Joe Hockey’s first Federal Budget announcement next week.

2014 Federal Budget preview
Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014

7 May 2014

Trends for bulk commodity prices were mixed in April, with relative stability (at very weak levels) for both thermal and metallurgical coal, while iron ore briefly recovered from the low levels in March, before retreating again.

Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

7 May 2014

Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2014

US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2014

7 May 2014

US GDP growth slowed sharply in the March quarter. This, at least in part, reflected the harsh winter and also a correction to the strong growth seen in the second half of 2013 as inventory accumulation slowed and net export gains were reversed.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2014
China Economic Comment – April 2014

China Economic Comment – April 2014

7 May 2014

There have been concerns around China’s residential property market for a number of years, with bearish observers repeatedly describing the market as a bubble. In March 2014, these fears were elevated by the collapse of the Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Company.

China Economic Comment – April 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2014

6 May 2014

In the year to March 2014, Australians spent $15.2 billion on online retail. This level is equivalent to 6.6% of spending with traditional bricks & mortar retailers (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food to create a like-for-like comparison) in the year to February.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2014

6 May 2014

Post-farmgate agribusiness conditions fell significantly in the March quarter from a 9-year high in December quarter as supportive seasonal factors dissipated. However, a sustained period of positive readings suggests that underlying fundamentals remain strong.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014

6 May 2014

Globally, commodity markets experienced heightened volatility in March, with the concerns of a slowdown in China and its first domestic bond default triggering some investor risk aversion.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014
China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses

China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses

5 May 2014

Patrick Vizzone, Regional Head of Food & Agribusiness, Asia, Institutional Banking reflects on how the outcomes of last November’s Third Plenary Session of China’s Communist Party’s Central Committee may shape the Australian agriculture sector.

China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q1, 2014

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q1, 2014

5 May 2014

NAB Commercial Property Index rises above long-term average, but overall still negative (-3 points) and below NAB Business Confidence. Sentiment stronger in all markets, except office (unchanged) and in all states (except NSW and WA). Forward expectations however softer.

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q1, 2014
A Budget for the Ages – Federal Budget 2014

A Budget for the Ages – Federal Budget 2014

1 May 2014

Ahead of the upcoming Federal Budget, there is a lot of focus on the Commission of Audit’s findings, and putting the Budget on a sustainable medium term path as the population ages, health and pension costs rise, and the proportion of tax payers declines.

A Budget for the Ages – Federal Budget 2014
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

28 April 2014

Business conditions for ASX 300 maintained momentum in the first quarter of 2014 - the broader economy weakened as it dipped back into negative territory. Confidence for larger firms surged to its highest level in the 3-year history of the survey.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014

28 April 2014

SME business confidence eased for the first time in over a year – consistent with persistently soft conditions and trends seen by larger firms. Nevertheless, business activity has improved with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2010 – although still sub-trend.

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014
A fresh look at Australia in the Asian Century

A fresh look at Australia in the Asian Century

22 April 2014

Australia’s role in securing the food, water and supply chains of Asia will be dependent on our ability to embrace change and innovation. Dr. Ken Henry looks at the opportunities that exist for Australian businesses in the Asian century.

A fresh look at Australia in the Asian Century
China Economic Update – 17 April 2014

China Economic Update – 17 April 2014

22 April 2014

There were few surprises in the latest Chinese data release, with the weakening trends evident since the latter part of last year continuing into the first quarter of 2014, with slower economic growth, comparatively soft industrial production and investment data continuing

China Economic Update – 17 April 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

17 April 2014

Business confidence eased from its recent high but remained elevated in the March quarter. Business conditions were soft, but are now much better than 6-months earlier. Forward indicators point to further modest improvements over coming months.

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2014

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2014

16 April 2014

Housing market sentiment lifted slightly in Q1 2014 as sentiment improved in SA/NT and NSW, but softened in Victoria and WA. The outlook for house prices strengthened in all states except Victoria, with Queensland showing the biggest gains in the next 1-2 years.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2014
Here comes the sun: better times for the music industry

Here comes the sun: better times for the music industry

15 April 2014

The internet has always been the enemy of music executives, facilitating piracy, denting cd sales and encouraging people to download single songs instead of buying them by the dozen. But it will give executives something to sing about in 2014.

Here comes the sun: better times for the music industry
US Economic Update – April 2014

US Economic Update – April 2014

10 April 2014

GDP growth is expected to decelerate in the March quarter, partly reflecting the temporary impact of a severe winter. The recovery should get back on a firmer footing over the rest of 2014. We are still expecting GDP growth of 2.6% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015.that

US Economic Update – April 2014
India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014

India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014

10 April 2014

At its first bi-monthly Monetary policy statement for 2014-15, the RBI maintained the policy Repo rate at 8%, as expected. India’s headline inflation indicators have improved with easing vegetable prices, although the Core CPI remained sticky at 8%, reflecting high prices for services.

India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014

9 April 2014

The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Some of this reflected the disruptive impact of bad weather on supply chains but the March business survey results suggest a levelling out in the pace of growth

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014
Monthly Business Survey – March 2014

Monthly Business Survey – March 2014

8 April 2014

Business conditions lifted slightly in March, but remained at relatively subdued levels, weighing on business optimism. Confidence still positive but softened to its lowest post-election level to be below long-run trend.

Monthly Business Survey – March 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014

8 April 2014

Global economy growing around trend but signs in early 2014 that accelerating growth phase has ended. Mixed conditions across regions with advanced economies providing more of global output expansion as Chinese growth rate trends down.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014
Base Metals Market Update – March 2014

Base Metals Market Update – March 2014

7 April 2014

Prices for most industrial metals have moved lower in response to growth concerns in China and uncertainty over the unwinding of commodity financing deals. However, supply side events are supporting prices for Nickel in particular.

Base Metals Market Update – March 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014

3 April 2014

Economic data was mixed over the past month, but the impact from severe weather on advanced economies appears to be abating. Partial indicators suggest China’s economy has continued to slow. US tapered QE again and markets remain volatile as they try to discern Fed direction.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014
Oil Market Update – March 2014

Oil Market Update – March 2014

3 April 2014

Since mid-January, several idiosyncratic factors, such as the ramping up of takeaway capacity by the Keystone XL Pipeline, better US economic data and unseasonably cold weather, have propped West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices relative to Tapis and Brent.

Oil Market Update – March 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2014

2 April 2014

Recent improved momentum in online sales stall in February – with trends weaker for most categories – strength remains in Groceries & Liquor, but Personal & Recreational Goods and Daily Deals contract. Online spending up to $15 billion in the past year.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2014
China: Special Update – 19 March 2014

China: Special Update – 19 March 2014

27 March 2014

Early this month saw China’s first onshore corporate default, when a Shanghai based solar company defaulted on its bond repayments of RMB 89.8 million (around US$14.7 million). This has been followed this week with a collapse of an unlisted private property development company.

China: Special Update – 19 March 2014
China Economic Comment – March 2014

China Economic Comment – March 2014

27 March 2014

In early March, China recorded its first domestic corporate bond default when the Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Company failed to make a RMB 89.8 million interest payment, having narrowly avoided a similar outcome in January 2013.

China Economic Comment – March 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014

26 March 2014

Global equity and commodity markets exhibited increased volatility in the past month, caused by heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, adverse weather events in the US and news of a slowing Chinese economy. December quarter GDP result for Australia was close to trend.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014
NAB Wellbeing Index – Q1 2014

NAB Wellbeing Index – Q1 2014

20 March 2014

National wellbeing improves after falling in the previous two quarters, but anxiety continues to rise with more than one-third of Australians currently “highly” anxious. The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index rose to 64.6 points in Q1 2014 (63.5 points in Q4 2013).

NAB Wellbeing Index – Q1 2014
China Economic Update – 14 March 2014

China Economic Update – 14 March 2014

17 March 2014

At the start of this month’s National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang confirmed China’s growth target at ‘about 7.5%’ in 2014, but noted that reform was the Government’s top priority.

China Economic Update – 14 March 2014
US Economic Update – March 2014

US Economic Update – March 2014

17 March 2014

GDP growth is expected to decelerate modestly in the March quarter, partly reflecting the temporary impact of a severe winter. Following GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013 we are forecasting GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2014 (previously 2.8%) and 2.9% in 2015.

US Economic Update – March 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014

13 March 2014

The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Nevertheless, this softer note probably reflects bad weather disrupting supply chains.

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014
Monthly Business Survey – February 2014

Monthly Business Survey – February 2014

11 March 2014

Recent recovery short lived? Business conditions back-pedalled sharply in February reversing around half post election gains. Confidence softened but still remains marginally above trend. Sales and employment fell markedly during the month, with the latter pointing to very weak labour

Monthly Business Survey – February 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014

11 March 2014

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014
India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014

India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014

11 March 2014

India’s economic growth decelerated to 4.7% in the December quarter 2013, in year ended terms, from 4.8% in the September quarter. The standout was the Services sector (particularly Financial services and Community services), which grew by 6.7%, followed by Agriculture at 3.6%.

India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014

6 March 2014

In the past few months, US natural gas prices have staged some gravity defying movements, fuelled by unusually strong heating demand from the most extreme winter conditions affecting the US in about a quarter of the century.

Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014
Gold Market Update – February 2014

Gold Market Update – February 2014

6 March 2014

The average price of gold rose by around 1½% in January and has lifted a further 4½% in February to date, the first consecutive rise since late 2012. Prices have been volatile of late, but are currently trading at around $1,330 per ounce.

Gold Market Update – February 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2013

4 March 2014

Post-farmgate agribusiness conditions rose significantly to their highest level in 9 years in the December quarter, with across-the-board improvements in all the three components of trading, profitability and employment.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2013
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013

3 March 2014

The Manufacturing Activity Index continued with its slow improvement in Q4, supported by strong business confidence and falling labour costs. The index implies activity in the manufacturing industry expanded by 0.5% in Q4.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013
Asian Emerging Economies Update – February 2014

Asian Emerging Economies Update – February 2014

27 February 2014

Moderate economic growth continues across the emerging market economies of East Asia (ASEAN, HK, South Korea and Taiwan) with the pace of regional growth quickening from just under 4% yoy in September quarter to 4.3% yoy in December.

Asian Emerging Economies Update – February 2014
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2013

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2013

27 February 2014

Sentiment rises further in Q4, with NAB’s Commercial Property Index reaching a 2-year high (but still negative overall). Improvement driven mainly by office and retail, although both segments still under-performing. Sentiment edged up in all states bar Qld and SA/NT.

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014

25 February 2014

Australia is on track to be the third largest exporter of raw cotton in the world in 2013-14, with forecasts of just under one million tonnes according to the latest Rural Commodities Wrap. The AUD is forecast to track lower which should provide further benefits to exporters.

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

20 February 2014

Business conditions for larger firms improved significantly in the December quarter – outperforming firms in the broader economy. However, confidence weakened slightly for larger firms – dropping below conditions and breaking away from the exuberance of the broader economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013
China Economic Update – 20 February 2014

China Economic Update – 20 February 2014

20 February 2014

Concerns have been raised by the rapid growth in local government liabilities in recent years, with questions around the stability and security of China’s sub-sovereign debt, and the risk that a potential default could trigger a broader financial crisis.

China Economic Update – 20 February 2014
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – February 2014

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – February 2014

18 February 2014

How to add Australian Debt Securities & Corporate Bonds to a portfolio. The fourth research report examining the Australian corporate bond market. In this report we place the Australian market in an international context and speculate on what the future holds for the asset class.

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – February 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013

17 February 2014

SME business confidence up for a fourth quarter – consistent with increases seen by larger firms. Confidence is finally gaining traction to support business activity, with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2011 – but remain soft.

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013
Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014

Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014

14 February 2014

Toyota has announced it would terminate automotive manufacturing operations in Australia by the end of 2017. Ford and General Motors (Holden) previously announced they would close their operations in 2016. The strength of the AUD has weighed heavily on an already struggling industry

Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014
US Economic Update – February 2014

US Economic Update – February 2014

14 February 2014

Economy still on track despite fall in manufacturing ISM and another weak jobs report. Following GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013 we are forecasting GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015. Inflation remains well below Fed’s 2% objective.

US Economic Update – February 2014
How to recruit the best people for your business

How to recruit the best people for your business

14 February 2014

Finding and keeping the right people is fundamental to the success of any business. Gavin O’Meara, Manager of People and Culture at Ramsay Health Care, explains how planning, preparation and ongoing support can help you build an engaged and productive team.

How to recruit the best people for your business
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2013

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2013

14 February 2014

Housing market sentiment lifts in Q4, supported by faster house price growth in all states (bar SA/NT). House prices expected to keep growing in next 1-2 years, but at slower rate than predicted in Q3 survey. Queensland is the exception and now set to lead country for capital gains.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2013
Monthly Business Survey – January 2014

Monthly Business Survey – January 2014

11 February 2014

Business conditions maintained last months momentum and is approaching 3 year highs while confidence was up for the first time in 4 months – both near or above trend levels. Employment index much better, but still suggests soft labour market conditions.

Monthly Business Survey – January 2014
Corporate Finance Insights – February 2014

Corporate Finance Insights – February 2014

11 February 2014

The reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors. In this edition we are pleased to present a compilation of articles with an underlying theme around the Australian opportunity in the growing Asian region.

Corporate Finance Insights – February 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

6 February 2014

Business confidence in the December quarter was at its highest in more than 2½ years. Business conditions lifted to their highest level in more than 12 months suggesting activity is starting to catch up - albeit still below trend.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013
Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014

6 February 2014

Bulk commodity prices softened in January, driven by the end of the restocking phase and seasonally weak steel production - which contributed to weaker demand trends for coal and iron ore. Expanding rail freight capacity in China could impact the country’s demand for seaborne coal

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2013

US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2013

6 February 2014

US GDP rose by a reasonably strong 3.2% (annualized rate) in Q4, completing a strong second half to the year. Consumption growth was stronger as were net exports but residential investment went into reverse and public demand was very weak due to the October government shutdown.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2013

5 February 2014

Recent improved momentum in online sales maintained in December – with trends positive for most categories - strength in Electronic Games and Toys, Groceries and Liquor, and Media. Online spending up to $14.7 billion in the past year.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014

India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014

4 February 2014

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on the 28th of January 2014, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the Repo rate by 25bp to 8%, and simultaneously raised both the MSF (Marginal Standing Facility Rate) and Reverse Repo Rate by 25bp to 9% and 7% respectively.

India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014

29 January 2014

Business surveys and partial data on trade and industrial output show moderate global economic growth continuing through to the end of 2013. There are mixed trends across Emerging markets, with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014
Monthly Business Survey – December 2013

Monthly Business Survey – December 2013

28 January 2014

Are we at a turning point? Business conditions jump to more than 2½ year high, while confidence broadly unchanged – both now near trend levels. Sales and profits up sharply – especially in wholesale, transport and services – reducing excess capacity slightly.

Monthly Business Survey – December 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014

28 January 2014

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014
China Economic Comment – January 2014

China Economic Comment – January 2014

23 January 2014

One of the key challenges in 2014 for China’s Central Government will be how it addresses the ongoing issue of air pollution across the country. Rising levels of smog and hazardous PM 2.5 particles have increased public health concerns.

China Economic Comment – January 2014
Will the dollar fall and property rise?

Will the dollar fall and property rise?

23 January 2014

The big question for 2014 is whether the Australian dollar will keep trending lower with perhaps a secondary question about whether Australian property will continue to boom. According to Business Spectator’s Alan Kohler - yes and yes.

Will the dollar fall and property rise?
The talk of the town: NAB business wrap

The talk of the town: NAB business wrap

23 January 2014

There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about so far in 2014 - from weather predictions to our reading habits. Here’s a selection of recent business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors in 2014.

The talk of the town: NAB business wrap
CPI preview – December quarter 2013

CPI preview – December quarter 2013

22 January 2014

We expect Q4 underlying inflation to print at 0.6% (2.3% through the year) on Wednesday. This would be the fifth successive outcome in the bottom half of the RBA target range. Subdued wages growth and weak domestic demand continue to keep core inflation well under control.

CPI preview – December quarter 2013
China Economic Update – 21 January 2014

China Economic Update – 21 January 2014

22 January 2014

China’s latest National Accounts data shows that the economy grew by 1.8% quarter on quarter in December, and 7.7% year on year - representing a marginal slowdown from the September quarter (when yoy growth was 7.8%).

China Economic Update – 21 January 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014

17 January 2014

The global economy capped off 2013 on a strong note, with monthly measures of global industrial output and trade indicators picking up to finally be consistent with the more buoyant message that the advanced economy business surveys have been signalling since late 2012.

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014
US Economic Update – January 2014

US Economic Update – January 2014

17 January 2014

Recent partial indicators of economic activity have been positive. With inventories also tracking more strongly than expected, December quarter GDP growth is now estimated to be 0.7% qoq (3.0% annualised). We are forecasting GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013

US Economic Update – January 2014
Can Australia fly on Kiwi wings?

Can Australia fly on Kiwi wings?

16 January 2014

The New Zealand economy is set to be one of the strongest in the developed world this year. This should provide a timely boost to the Australian export and tourism industries, particularly if the New Zealand dollar appreciates as much as some expect.

Can Australia fly on Kiwi wings?
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2013

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2013

15 January 2014

Consumer anxiety rises amid ongoing weakness in the domestic economy. Consumer anxiety rose to 61.5 points in Q4 (61.1 in Q3). With the labour market softening, anxiety over job security has started climbing although it still rates as the lowest concern overall.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2013
Pedal to the metal

Pedal to the metal

15 January 2014

The limp performance of metals and bulk commodities over the past couple of years has resembled a unicycle rather than the superbike of previous years. According to Simon Wright of The Economist, the 2014 outlook for demand is rosier and commodity prices should start climbing once again.

Pedal to the metal
NAB Wellbeing Index – Q4 2013

NAB Wellbeing Index – Q4 2013

10 January 2014

National wellbeing deteriorates for the second straight quarter. The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell to 63.5 points in Q4 (64.4 points in Q3), with all four survey questions - satisfied life, worthwhile life, happy yesterday and not anxious yesterday - rated lower.

NAB Wellbeing Index – Q4 2013
Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013

Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013

9 January 2014

Global upturn continues with advanced economies seeing faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.

Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013
Digging deeper

Digging deeper

9 January 2014

Some of the world’s fastest-growing economies in 2014 will be in Africa. Since 2001, Africa’s GDP has expanded more quickly each year than the global average. In the past decade, only the block of developing Asian economies, led by China, has grown faster than Africa.

Digging deeper
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2013

8 January 2014

Growth rates for online sales increased in November – with trends positive for most categories - strength in Media, Groceries and Liquor, Toys and Electronic Games and Department and Variety Stores. Online spending up to $14.6 billion in past year.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2013
The Middle Kingdom’s Australian frontier

The Middle Kingdom’s Australian frontier

7 January 2014

Start to prepare for a new era in the Australian Chinese relationship. Well within five years, instead of simply looking at Chinese manufacturing, Australia will look at the tourist bookings due to a very big rise in Chinese tourism.

The Middle Kingdom’s Australian frontier
Below the surface

Below the surface

6 January 2014

As many SMEs might be a million miles away from the mining and resources sector, it’s easy to think it’s all completely irrelevant. That’s not the case. It’s important that you're aware of the general direction of the industry because it can affect your own business.

Below the surface
2014 economic trends for small business

2014 economic trends for small business

1 January 2014

Through our partnership with Kochie’s Business Builders, David Koch speaks with NAB Chief Economist of Markets, Rob Henderson about his outlook for 2014. Join them as they discuss some of the big trends in the economy that may impact small business.

2014 economic trends for small business
Business View Magazine – Summer 2013

Business View Magazine – Summer 2013

30 December 2013

The summer edition of Business View Magazine explores the ecosystem behind the business of sport, looking at how entrepreneurs working in and with the sports sector deal with changes in the business environment. Download the free iPad edition via our new publications app NAB Think.

Business View Magazine – Summer 2013
Mining and metals firms and the slowing of the super cycle

Mining and metals firms and the slowing of the super cycle

30 December 2013

Companies in the industrial raw materials sector are facing a new era. For years, miners of resources such as iron ore, base metals and coal enjoyed a boom driven by incredible demand from China and other emerging markets that were urbanising and investing heavily in infrastructure.

Mining and metals firms and the slowing of the super cycle
Brief China Economic Update – 11 December 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 11 December 2013

12 December 2013

Our expectations that China will achieve its growth target this year remain unchanged. Domestic demand has strengthened recently, with consumer confidence improving, while exports increased strongly during November - contributing to the widest trade surplus for four years.

Brief China Economic Update – 11 December 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013

12 December 2013

September industrial output and broader measures of quarterly GDP are finally showing economic growth starting to lift in line with both the business surveys and our forecast for a global upturn in 2014 (growth at 3½% unchanged).

Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013
Monthly Business Survey – November 2013

Monthly Business Survey – November 2013

10 December 2013

Business conditions and confidence broadly unchanged - with confidence still much higher than conditions. While still weak, business conditions appear to be trending higher. Trading conditions up - especially mining and manufacturing - with capacity utilisation off its recent lows.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013

10 December 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies see faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013
India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013

10 December 2013

Indian growth accelerated to 4.8%, in year ended terms, in the September Quarter, up from 4.4% in the June quarter. An improvement in the agricultural sector (up to 4.6% from 2.7%), due to a favourable monsoon season, helped drive the improved outcome.

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013
Oil Market Update – November 2013

Oil Market Update – November 2013

9 December 2013

Average oil prices fell for the second consecutive month in November. In addition to the bearish sentiment in the crude oil futures market, oil prices have generally returned to be more aligned with the reality of fundamentals where ample supplies, have served to weigh on prices.

Oil Market Update – November 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013

9 December 2013

November’s Third Plenum unveiled a wide ranging reform agenda from China’s Government. Proposed deregulation would increase free market influence and could support a stronger medium term growth profile for the economy.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013
Base Metals Market Update – November 2013

Base Metals Market Update – November 2013

3 December 2013

Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have been relatively range bound, fluctuating with the ebbs and flows of economic news. As usual, news relating to US Fed policy and the Chinese economy has been particularly relevant.

Base Metals Market Update – November 2013
US Economic Update – November 2013

US Economic Update – November 2013

20 November 2013

US GDP rose by 2.8% (annualized rate) in the September quarter, continuing the improvement experienced over the course of the past year. However, details a bit weaker as the stronger growth reflected a pick-up in inventories.

US Economic Update – November 2013
US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2013

US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2013

19 November 2013

US GDP rose by 2.8% (annualized rate) in the September quarter, continuing the improvement experienced over the course of the past year. However, the stronger growth largely reflected a pickup in inventories. Business investment and consumption were weak, but housing is still growing

US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2013
China Economic Comment – November 2013

China Economic Comment – November 2013

18 November 2013

China has one of the most important labour markets in the world. This is true for a number of reasons. The most apparent is that it has the largest labour market in the world, and rapid income growth is generating a middle class in China that is expected to define the global economy

China Economic Comment – November 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013

15 November 2013

Global growth remains at a moderate sub-trend pace and it’s expected to pick up to slightly below trend in 2014. However, NAB business conditions remain weak and forward indicators deteriorated slightly. There are still no signs of a recovery in non-mining investment.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2013

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2013

13 November 2013

Commercial property market sentiment improved slightly in Q3, in line with a modest pick-up in confidence also seen in NAB’s Quarterly Business Survey. However, NAB’s Commercial Property Index is still deeply negative (-13) and below its long-term average (-7).

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013

13 November 2013

Global growth rose from 2.4% to 2.8% between March and June quarters and we are expecting 2.9% for 2013 overall, increasing to 3.5% next year. The national accounts and business surveys show a quickening pace of growth in the big advanced economies with the UK and Japan the standout.

Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 11 November 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 11 November 2013

12 November 2013

China remains on track to achieve its growth target for the year with domestic demand holding up in October, while exports picked up from the disappointing outcome in September. Industrial production was slightly better than expectations for the month.

Brief China Economic Update – 11 November 2013
Monthly Business Survey – October 2013

Monthly Business Survey – October 2013

12 November 2013

Firms reassess their confidence on the outlook as business conditions undershoot again. Capacity utilisation falls sharply - especially in manufacturing, construction, mining and retail - despite low interest rates and improved housing and equity markets.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013

12 November 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing faster recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Mixed trends across emerging markets with solid Chinese growth but disappointing outcomes in India.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013

11 November 2013

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on the 29th of October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the Repo rate by 25bp to 7.75%. It simultaneously cut the MSF (Marginal Standing Facility Rate) by 25bp to 8%; this follows a prior 50bp cut on the 7th October.

India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013
Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013

Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013

8 November 2013

US natural gas prices showed significant volatility in the lead-up to the US government shutdown, but trended higher in September and October overall in anticipation of winter heating demand. British natural gas prices also tracked higher in the past two months.

Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013

8 November 2013

In October, indicators of global economic activity were mixed, casting some doubt over signs of recovery in the advanced economies. The upturn is still under way, but the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013

1 November 2013

Donations grew 2.5% (12-month average) in August with an average annual donation of $312 per donor. Giving grew fastest for “Other” (12.8%) and Health & Disability (9.1%) charities, but fell for Humanitarian Services (-3.2%) and Medical Research & Services (-2.4%) charities.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013
Gold Market Update – October 2013

Gold Market Update – October 2013

1 November 2013

The average price of gold eased by around 2½% in October, though the daily spot price generally strengthened over the second half of the month and is currently trading at around $1,340 per ounce. Gold is set to record its first annual price decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – October 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013

1 November 2013

Online sales growth edges up in September – to +0.3% mom (from even weaker sales in August). Sales trends mixed by category. In the year to September 2013, Australia’s online retail spending totaled $14.3 billion. This is equivalent to 6.3% of the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013
Asian Emerging Economies Update – October 2013

Asian Emerging Economies Update – October 2013

30 October 2013

Behind the volatility in the monthly data, the trend pace of growth in the emerging market economies of East Asia (which stretch from S Korea to Indonesia) remains weak. Industrial output and export volumes are barely above year-earlier levels, reflecting sluggish growth in world trade.

Asian Emerging Economies Update – October 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013

29 October 2013

Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013
China Economic Comment – October 2013

China Economic Comment – October 2013

28 October 2013

As the Chinese economy enters a transitional phase in its development, many are now questioning what this will mean for its future economic performance. The IMF recently examined a number of scenarios for how China’s recent investment driven growth model could unfold over coming years.

China Economic Comment – October 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2013

25 October 2013

Post‐farmgate agribusiness conditions maintained its momentum in the September quarter to remain in positive territory, with the profitability index recording its first positive reading in three years.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013

24 October 2013

SME business confidence broadly unchanged – with no sign of the political kick in confidence seen elsewhere in business. That may in part reflect a significant fall in business conditions in the quarter. SME performance in poor sectors of the economy were similar to larger firms.

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013

21 October 2013

The Manufacturing Activity Index was largely unchanged in Q3 – with positive trends for business confidence offset by negative ones for labour and purchase costs and final product prices. The index implies a slight increase quarterly manufacturing activity - at around +0.4%.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 18 October 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 18 October 2013

18 October 2013

According to National Accounts data released today, the Chinese economy grew 2.2% in the September quarter to be 7.8% larger than the same period last year. The improvement in growth from last quarter was slightly above our expectation.

Brief China Economic Update – 18 October 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013

18 October 2013

Global bond yields fell in September from the US Fed surprise decision not to initiate the tapering of its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, commodity markets weakened further. The strong pace in the economic recovery in big advanced economies evident in the first half of the year

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – September

Quarterly Business Survey – September

17 October 2013

Businesses become more confident in the September quarter. This fundamentally appears to be driven by political factors – albeit the lower AUD and rates, together with stronger asset markets would have helped.

Quarterly Business Survey – September
NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2013

NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2013

16 October 2013

The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell to 6.4 points in Q3, with a big increase in anxiety in WA a key contributor to lower national wellbeing. Consumer anxiety rose to 6.1 points in Q3, underpinned by rising concerns around cost of living, ability to fund retirement and health.

NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013

16 October 2013

In September, overall demand for commodities gained support from progress in the global economic recovery. Positive data from major economies is adding to confidence that the recovery in the big advanced economies is currently on track.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013
US Economic Update – October 2013

US Economic Update – October 2013

16 October 2013

September quarter GDP growth expected to be 2.0% qoq (annualised rate). Business surveys more positive on strength of the economy. Partial U.S. Government shutdown will not have a major direct impact on the economy.

US Economic Update – October 2013
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2013

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2013

10 October 2013

Housing market sentiment strengthened notably in Q3, underpinned by an acceleration in house price growth in all states (bar WA). The Survey is pointing to faster price growth ahead (led by NSW and Queensland), but gains are expected to be relatively modest.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013

10 October 2013

After a period where the data showed accelerating growth in the big advanced economies, the latest numbers have been more mixed. Although an upturn is still under way, the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.

Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013
Monthly Business Survey – September 2013

Monthly Business Survey – September 2013

8 October 2013

Animal spirits lift again. Confidence surges to its highest level in 3½ years. Business conditions, however, still subdued - with employment poor. Signs of better conditions in finance/ business/ property and construction.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013

8 October 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed - but growth momentum has slowed a touch through mid-2013. Composition of global growth still shifting toward advanced economies with mixed trends in emerging markets.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013
Business and the dollar – September 2013

Business and the dollar – September 2013

2 October 2013

The recent depreciation of the dollar has not been all good news for Australian business. While a weaker dollar has helped raise returns in export markets and blunted some import competition it has also raised input costs for some domestic industries that are in no position to pass them on.

Business and the dollar – September 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013

2 October 2013

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on 20 July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the MSF rate by 75bps, whilst raising the Repo and Reverse Repo rates by 25 basis points. The Cash Reserve Ratio was held at 4%, but the minimum daily balance was reduced from 99% to 95%.

India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013

30 September 2013

In the year to August 2013, Australians spent $14.2 bn on online retail. This level is equivalent to 6.3% of spending with traditional bricks & mortar retailer (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food to create a like-for-like comparison) in the year to July 2013.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013
The numbers game

The numbers game

27 September 2013

Economic data can be baffling. Bombarded with numbers, headlines, warnings and opinions from all directions, it can be hard to know just what to focus on. So what do you really need to know? And what does it all mean? We explain.

The numbers game
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013

20 September 2013

Global financial markets rallied strongly when US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) defied market expectations of a modest tapering and decided to leave retain the status quo on the pace of asset purchases.

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013
State Economic Update – September 2013

State Economic Update – September 2013

16 September 2013

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a marginal deterioration in overall business conditions in the June quarter, with the level remaining close to four year lows. All states experienced difficult conditions in the quarter.

State Economic Update – September 2013
US Economic Update – September 2013

US Economic Update – September 2013

13 September 2013

US GDP for the June quarter revised up from 1.7% (annualized rate) to 2.5%. While some partial indicators were soft at the start of the September quarter, business surveys point to a stronger underlying momentum in the economy. We have revised up our forecast for GDP growth in 2013 to 1.6%

US Economic Update – September 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 10 September 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 10 September 2013

13 September 2013

The most recent batch of partial economic indicators provide further evidence that China's economy may be stabilising, supported by improved foreign demand and a shift in policy stance. There may have also been a delayed impact from rapid credit growth earlier in the year.

Brief China Economic Update – 10 September 2013
China Economic Comment – September 2013

China Economic Comment – September 2013

13 September 2013

There has been a large divergence in views over the future path of China’s monetary policy/stimulus over the medium term. While the majority view expects target interest rates and reserve requirements to remain unchanged until early 2015, there are still analysts calling for cuts to rates.

China Economic Comment – September 2013
Monthly Business Survey – August 2013

Monthly Business Survey – August 2013

10 September 2013

Confidence rises everywhere and surges in mining, construction and finance/ business/ property. This appears to reflect expectations of political change & more certainty about future political frameworks. Against that, business conditions and capacity utilisation remained poor.

Monthly Business Survey – August 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013

10 September 2013

Recent data show a promising lift in business sentiment in big advanced economies but financial volatility hitting emerging market growth prospects (India, ASEAN, and Brazil). Little change in headline global growth forecast with advanced economy upturn set to drive faster world economy

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013
India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013

10 September 2013

The Indian economy (Production, at factor cost) grew by only 4.4% over the year to the June quarter, 2013. This is the slowest pace of growth since March 2009. By Production, services (primarily financial and agriculture) were the mainstay; in contrast, mining and manufacturing contracted

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013

4 September 2013

More positive news on the major economies has provided a slight boost to most commodity prices in August, with the long awaited rotation of global growth towards the big advanced economies seemingly underway. Global manufacturing activity also appears to have gained momentum.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013
Oil Market Update – August 2013

Oil Market Update – August 2013

2 September 2013

Oil prices strengthened in July, reflecting heightened concerns over the security of supply with the violent unrest in Egypt, an uptick in Asian crude demand due to improved margins, as well as ramped up refinery runs and tight supply.

Oil Market Update – August 2013
Base Metals Market Update – August 2013

Base Metals Market Update – August 2013

27 August 2013

Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have seen some support recently from more upbeat economic data, particularly from the large advanced economies, although China is showing early signs of stabilising as well.

Base Metals Market Update – August 2013
Gold Market Update – August 2013

Gold Market Update – August 2013

27 August 2013

The price of gold fell by a notable 4.3% in July, but has stabilised more recently, recovering by a modest 2.8% over August to date. Spot gold is currently around $1,380 an ounce. The price of gold will certainly record its first annual decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – August 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013

26 August 2013

Post-farmgate agribusiness conditions rebounded in the June quarter to be mildly positive but confidence fell marginally. Customer demand remains the single most significant constraint to businesses’ future profitability. Expectations for capex plans surged to the highest in two years.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013
US Economic Update – August 2013

US Economic Update – August 2013

19 August 2013

US GDP rose by 1.7% (annualized rate) in the June quarter, an improvement on the March quarter, but still only a modest rate of growth. The stronger growth largely reflected a pick-up in business investment and a much smaller detraction from growth from public demand.

US Economic Update – August 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013

19 August 2013

Global equity markets recovered earlier losses as it became clear that central banks would not rapidly turn off their monetary easing, although we still expect the US Federal Reserve to start tapering in the coming few weeks.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013
China Economic Update – August 2013

China Economic Update – August 2013

18 August 2013

Partial economic indicators, although still subdued, provided some signs that the economy may be stabilising. Trade data were somewhat above expectations, including much stronger import growth pointing to improved domestic demand.

China Economic Update – August 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013

14 August 2013

Central bank statements reinforcing their guidance that interest rates should stay low for a long time yet across the big advanced economies, have supported financial markets. Recent business surveys and industrial data point to an upturn in growth in these advanced economies

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013

13 August 2013

Global growth unchanged as modest country forecast revisions cancel each other out. We see moderate acceleration in global growth to around trend in 2014. Recent data show promising signs in big advanced economies while conditions still softening in emerging market economies.

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013
Monthly Business Survey – July 2013

Monthly Business Survey – July 2013

13 August 2013

Business conditions remain at 4 year lows while confidence slumps to 8 month low - despite a falling AUD and lower interest rates. Conditions very poor in manufacturing, construction, mining, retail and wholesale; WA now the weakest state.

Monthly Business Survey – July 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 9 August 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 9 August 2013

12 August 2013

Partial economic indicators, although still subdued, provided some signs that the economy may now be stabilising. Trade data came in somewhat above expectations, including much stronger import growth pointing to a pick up in domestic demand.

Brief China Economic Update – 9 August 2013
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2013

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2013

7 August 2013

Sentiment in the commercial property market weakened notably in Q2 2013. The recent softening in economic conditions (and more subdued outlook for GDP growth) seem to have weighed most heavily in office and industrial markets, with retail unchanged (but very weak).

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2013
Managing fluctuations in currency and interest rates

Managing fluctuations in currency and interest rates

7 August 2013

Most businesses in the healthcare sector are affected by fluctuations in currency and interest rates. NAB’s Head of Corporate & Institutional Markets, Darren Hooton, cautions against complacency and suggests strategies for mitigating risk.

Managing fluctuations in currency and interest rates
Emerging Asian Economies Update – August 2013

Emerging Asian Economies Update – August 2013

5 August 2013

Exports from Australia to the emerging economies of Asia (ASEAN, S Korea, Taiwan, HK) remain below their 2011 peak, largely because of lower commodity prices. Dairy is 40% of New Zealand exports to these economies and higher dairy prices have driven a rebound in its earnings from the region

Emerging Asian Economies Update – August 2013
Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013

Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013

5 August 2013

The government’s economic forecasts now recognise the softness of the domestic economy and the weaker outlook for commodity prices and incomes. In the near term the Budget now looks to be slightly adding to growth (rather than detracting as at Budget time).

Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013
US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2013

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2013

2 August 2013

US GDP rose by 1.7% (annualized rate) in the June quarter, an improvement on the March quarter, but still only a modest rate of growth. The stronger growth largely reflected a pick-up in business investment and a much smaller detraction from growth from public demand.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013

1 August 2013

Online sales growth slowed to +14% yoy in June - the second slowest rate recorded. Fewer Fridays and a lack of product launches may have contributed to subdued growth. In the twelve months to June 2013, Australian online retail spending totalled $13.9 billion.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013
NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end

NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end

31 July 2013

We had already been forecasting a 25bps rate cut in August to 2½% and with the Governor giving the green light for lower interest rates this now looks a sure thing. We now also expect an additional 25bps cut to 2.25% before year end – most likely in November after the Q3 CPI.

NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013

24 July 2013

SME confidence & conditions improve significantly with activity of smaller firms outperforming larger firms for the first time in almost four years. SME conditions strengthened across most industries.

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013
Business View Magazine – Winter 2013

Business View Magazine – Winter 2013

23 July 2013

In this edition, we delve into the experiences of finance commentator turned business builder Alan Kohler, detail bringing an invention to life and explore running a business in an extreme climate. We also cover retaining staff, handling tax in your SMSF and negotiating contracts in China.

Business View Magazine – Winter 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

22 July 2013

Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013
A smarter way to trade in China

A smarter way to trade in China

22 July 2013

If you’ve been thinking about improving the efficiency of your importing or exporting business with Australia’s largest trading partner, there’s now a more efficient way to settle trade transactions in China. Hear the latest insights from NAB’s team of experts.

A smarter way to trade in China
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013

19 July 2013

Global equity markets have come under downward pressure, but the latest data on activity is slightly more positive. Business sentiment about current conditions has picked up in advanced economies and growth in global industrial output is faster.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013
China Economic Update – July 2013

China Economic Update – July 2013

19 July 2013

According to recently released National Accounts data, the Chinese economy grew 1.7% in the June quarter to be 7.5% larger than the same period last year. This result is in line with our forecast for the quarter.

China Economic Update – July 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

18 July 2013

Business conditions struggle in the June quarter and confidence falls back, driven by a pessimistic mining sector. Falling equities and offshore concerns likely to be weighing on sentiment. Little sign yet that lower interest rates and AUD are helping.

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 15 July 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 15 July 2013

16 July 2013

According to National Accounts data released today, the Chinese economy grew 1.7% in the June quarter to be 7.5% larger than the same period last year. This result is in line with our forecast for the quarter, a solid outcome relative to the recent spate of soft partial indicators.

Brief China Economic Update – 15 July 2013
US Economic Update – July 2013

US Economic Update – July 2013

16 July 2013

Overall, the US economy appears to be continuing to grow at a modest pace. While GDP growth is likely to slow in the June quarter, this is partly due to an expected inventory correction. We are forecasting GDP growth will strengthen in the second half of the year.

US Economic Update – July 2013
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – July 2013

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – July 2013

15 July 2013

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds - What’s the risk? Important considerations for Investors. We bring you the second of five research reports examining the Australian corporate bond market, prepared for National Australia Bank by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – July 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013

10 July 2013

Equity and currency market volatility reflects uncertainties over the pace at which the Fed might alter US monetary policy, Chinese authorities might clamp down on shadow banking and the potential impact of the Bank of Japan’s move to greater monetary easing.

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013
Monthly Business Survey – June 2013

Monthly Business Survey – June 2013

9 July 2013

Business conditions and capacity utilisation slump to a four year low. Confidence a little better but still below trend. Conditions very bad in retail, mining and manufacturing, despite low interest rates and falling AUD, though signs a little better for exports.

Monthly Business Survey – June 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013

9 July 2013

Global growth forecasts unchanged. A few signs that activity is picking up in some advanced economies but India and Brazil still soft and growing concerns over pace of Chinese growth. Markets focussed on central bank policy driving greater volatility in equities and currencies.

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013
Global FX Strategist – July 2013

Global FX Strategist – July 2013

8 July 2013

The asymmetric (downside) risks we alluded to in our previous AUD forecast update have eventuated and we have now made further downward revisions. The Fed's return to the (early stages) of policy normalcy in itself justifies an AUD/USD in the low 0.80s.

Global FX Strategist – July 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013

5 July 2013

Global financial markets have taken a dive at the suggestions of the US Federal Reserve scaling back quantitative easing soon and the drying up of new stimulus initiatives by the Japanese government.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013

4 July 2013

Overall, the heightened volatility in global financial markets associated with central bank decisions in the US and China has weighed on commodity prices. The slowdown in the Chinese economy is also gaining traction in markets and further weakens demand prospects.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013
Gold Market Update – June 2013

Gold Market Update – June 2013

2 July 2013

Expectations for the US Federal Reserve to begin tapering its $85 billion in monthly debt buying this year, a rising US dollar and a slowing Chinese economy have sent ripples through the gold market. The price of gold is now heading for its first annual decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – June 2013
Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013

2 July 2013

Bulk commodity prices remain under pressure from mounting concerns over the China growth outlook. Nevertheless, iron ore is receiving some support from tentative restocking activity, while a margin squeeze in the coal market could suggest that prices are approaching their bottom.

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013
India Economic Update – March quarter 2013

India Economic Update – March quarter 2013

2 July 2013

In the final quarter of 2012-13, the Indian economy grew by 4.8%. This was broadly similar to the upwardly revised third quarter estimate of 4.7%. Somewhat softer growth in the last 2 quarters of the current fiscal year has pushed overall growth in 2012/2013 to 5%, the lowest in a decade.

India Economic Update – March quarter 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013

2 July 2013

For the year to May 2013, Australians spent around $13.7 billion with online retailers. This is equivalent to 6.1% of the spending in the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food for a like-to-like comparison) in the year to April 2013.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013

2 July 2013

In its mid quarter Monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark Repo rate at 7.25% and the Reverse Repo rate at 6.25%. The RBI expressed concern at the sudden, steep depreciation in the Rupee amid a high current account deficit.

India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013
NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2013

NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2013

1 July 2013

Australian wellbeing improved in the June quarter despite softening economic conditions. NAB's Australian Wellbeing Index measured 6.6 points, up from 6.2 points in the March quarter. Consumer anxiety fell in the quarter in line with moderating concerns about future spending/savings plans.

NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2013
US Economic Update – June 2013

US Economic Update – June 2013

14 June 2013

Early indicators suggest GDP growth will slow a little in the June quarter from its March quarter level. However, as the impact of tax increases and the automatic budget cuts fades, growth is expected to strengthen later in the year. We see GDP growth of 2.1% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014.

US Economic Update – June 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013

13 June 2013

The consensus view is that the pace of global growth should accelerate through the course of 2013 as recessions end in Western Europe, Abenomics lifts Japanese growth, the US continues its moderate expansion and solid growth continues in the big emerging economies.

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013

12 June 2013

Economic activity in China appears to have slowed further during the month of May, although the moderation in growth continues to occur at a gradual pace - keeping concerns of a hard-landing at bay. Nevertheless, hopes of a meaningful acceleration in growth this year have faded.

Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013
Monthly Business Survey – May 2013

Monthly Business Survey – May 2013

11 June 2013

Business conditions remain at low levels (marginally higher) with unchanged mediocre confidence levels. Conditions better in wholesale, manufacturing and construction, but mining worsens. Any confidence gained from falling dollar and May rate cut have been undermined by domestic weakness

Monthly Business Survey – May 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013

11 June 2013

Global growth forecasts little changed. Still waiting to see firm evidence that the expected acceleration in activity through 2013 is beginning. Australian economy now at a watershed as mining investment slows and domestic economy struggles.

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013
Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013

4 June 2013

US natural gas prices trend higher on rising exporting prospects and forecasted warmer-than-average temperatures in the upcoming summer. British natural gas prices have returned to more normal levels as supply pressures ameliorate from restored Qatari deliveries and Norwegian production.

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013

4 June 2013

Commodity markets have been mixed but overall sentiment remains bearish reflecting soft economic data in most regions. However, signs of improvement in the US economy could help to support commodity demand, but the effect on market expectations for Fed stimulus will create headwinds.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013
Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – April 2013

Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – April 2013

30 May 2013

For the year to April 2013, Australians spent $13.5 billion online - a level that is equivalent to around 6.0% of traditional retail spending. Online retail sales have continued to grow at a vastly stronger rate than the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector.

Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – April 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013

24 May 2013

With the exception of dairy, the prices of most other agricultural commodities have headed south this month. In April, the Rural Commodity Index rose marginally USD terms by 0.8% while fell by 2% in AUD terms. This month, lamb is our commodity in focus.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2013

23 May 2013

After a positive December quarter result, the March quarter result has relapsed into negative territory, to be more consistent with the negative pattern observed in the three quarters prior to the December quarter. On balance, more survey respondents reported poor conditions than good.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2013
China Economic Update – May 2013

China Economic Update – May 2013

23 May 2013

Partial economic indicators lack any strong indication that conditions are improving in China. While indicators for April came in broadly consistent with expectations, the market has revised expectations lower in response to a run of disappointing outcomes since the start of the year

China Economic Update – May 2013
2013 Federal Budget news, insights and expert analysis

2013 Federal Budget news, insights and expert analysis

16 May 2013

Understanding how the Federal Budget impacts you and your business can be complex. Our team of leading economists, tax and superannuation experts keep you up-to-date with all the latest news from the 2013 Federal Budget so we can help you get all your ducks in a row.

2013 Federal Budget news, insights and expert analysis
Federal Budget 2013 – Fact sheets

Federal Budget 2013 – Fact sheets

15 May 2013

With the Federal Budget being handed down yesterday, we want to ensure you understand what it means for you and your business. Our team of economists and industry experts have analysed what the Budget means overall for Australian businesses, as well as focussing on specific industries

Federal Budget 2013 – Fact sheets
US Economic Update – May 2013

US Economic Update – May 2013

15 May 2013

US GDP rose by 2.5% (annualized rate) in the March quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. We are forecasting GDP growth of 2.1% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. While GDP growth will likely moderate in the current quarter it should strengthen in the second half of the year.

US Economic Update – May 2013
Understanding the budget impacts for the healthcare sector

Understanding the budget impacts for the healthcare sector

15 May 2013

Following the announcement, NAB’s panel of leading economists and industry healthcare experts have analysed the Governments’ much-anticipated 2013 Federal Budget, and here they share with Health View their breakdown of what it means for the healthcare sector.

Understanding the budget impacts for the healthcare sector
What a difference a year makes! Alan Oster analyses the budget

What a difference a year makes! Alan Oster analyses the budget

15 May 2013

“What a difference a year makes”. NAB’s Group Chief Economist Alan Oster gives his detailed summary of this year’s Federal Budget. Who benefits from the Government’s proposed spending and who doesn’t, and what does it mean for the Australian Economy?

What a difference a year makes! Alan Oster analyses the budget
Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector

Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector

15 May 2013

This year’s budget contains a number of negatives for the resources sector. NAB’s Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, looks at where the government has targeted it’s efforts including impacts to exploration and many mining and energy programs.

Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector
New reforms to impact Big Business from the 2013 Federal Budget

New reforms to impact Big Business from the 2013 Federal Budget

15 May 2013

NAB’s Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, looks at the key reforms impacting Big business. The Federal Budget focuses on a crackdown on profit shifting, banning of dividend washing, reducing thin capitalisation safe harbour, removal of R&D and exploration incentives.

New reforms to impact Big Business from the 2013 Federal Budget
What does the Federal Budget 2013 mean for Agribusiness?

What does the Federal Budget 2013 mean for Agribusiness?

15 May 2013

Agribusiness has emerged as a net beneficiary of the budget, with the diesel fuel tax rebate – speculated as an area of possible cut prior to the release – remaining intact. That said, the overall gains are rather modest.

What does the Federal Budget 2013 mean for Agribusiness?
Federal Budget 2013 impacts on small business

Federal Budget 2013 impacts on small business

14 May 2013

The Council of Small Business Australia’s (COSBOA) CEO, Peter Strong, provides his summary of what the Government’s Federal Budget announcement means for small businesses – do they stand to benefit or will they be worse off?

Federal Budget 2013 impacts on small business
What happens in today’s budget lock-up?

What happens in today’s budget lock-up?

14 May 2013

Business Spectator share a candid account of what it’s like inside the Federal Budget lock-up ahead of tonight’s announcement …..the budget lock-up is a strange place where 'parameter variations' are king and phoneless journalists fight over warm sushi and moneyed clichés.

What happens in today’s budget lock-up?
Opportunities for Small Business in the 2013 Federal Budget

Opportunities for Small Business in the 2013 Federal Budget

14 May 2013

The Council for Small Business Australia’s CEO, Peter Strong, talks to Business View, about the key areas they’d like to see addressed in tonight’s 2013 Federal Budget announcement and how those areas could help the broader Australian economy.

Opportunities for Small Business in the 2013 Federal Budget
Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013

14 May 2013

Chinese partial economic indicators were largely in line with expectations in April. However, we are yet to see signs that real activity is significantly picking up. We continue to expect growth of 8% in 2013, although risks remain skewed to the downside.

Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013
Monthly Business Survey – April 2013

Monthly Business Survey – April 2013

13 May 2013

Business conditions remain very difficult and confidence stumbles after showing signs of recovery earlier this year. Despite less negativity in retail & manufacturing, activity still very poor and labour market showing new signs of weakness.

Monthly Business Survey – April 2013
Alan Oster’s pre-budget overview

Alan Oster’s pre-budget overview

10 May 2013

NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides a pre-budget overview of the Australian economy focussing on what we’ve already seen from the Government and commentary on the deficit. Join us on Wednesday 15 May for a full budget breakdown.

Alan Oster’s pre-budget overview
Australia’s carbon budget hole

Australia’s carbon budget hole

7 May 2013

The carbon pricing budget black hole may sound bad now, but it’ll get far worse due to completely unrealistic assumptions in the Coalition’s budget costings. It’s been reported that Treasury will now dramatically revise down the expected revenue from the government’s carbon pricing scheme.

Australia’s carbon budget hole
Gold Market Update – April 2013

Gold Market Update – April 2013

6 May 2013

The gold price fell by 6.6% over April. Recent gold demand appears to have fallen sharply on news of soft US inflation, slowing Chinese growth as well as fears that highly indebted European countries like Cyprus may resort to selling gold reserves.

Gold Market Update – April 2013
Base Metals Market Update – April 2013

Base Metals Market Update – April 2013

6 May 2013

The improvement in metals prices seen over the second half of 2012 has been completely unwound, largely due to a lack of physical demand and market concerns over the outlook for demand. In aggregate, base metal prices were 5% lower over March and down more than 10% over the year.

Base Metals Market Update – April 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

1 May 2013

ASX 300 show greater resilience than the broader economy in Q1, with conditions stable. Finance, Business & Property considerably stronger. Confidence rebounded but weaker forward orders & stocks point to potential softness in the next quarter.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013
US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2013

US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2013

30 April 2013

US GDP rose by 2.5% (annualized rate) in the March quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. Growth in the quarter was largely driven by private consumption and a positive contribution from inventories. Fixed investment was weaker than the previous quarter but continues to grow

US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2013
China Economic Update – April 2013

China Economic Update – April 2013

30 April 2013

National accounts for the March quarter came in well below expectations, suggesting a more subdued economic recovery than previously thought. Real GDP growth eased to 7.7% yoy, from 7.9% last quarter. Consumption made the largest contribution to growth but it is too early to say an...

China Economic Update – April 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013

29 April 2013

SME confidence & conditions edge higher in March quarter but still near post-GFC lows; SMEs more pessimistic than larger firms and activity also more subdued. Capacity utilisation falls to lowest level in history, despite tick up in forward orders. Signs lower borrowing rates are helping…

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013

24 April 2013

The Manufacturing Activity Index improved in Q1, up to neutral levels – driven largely by less negative levels for business confidence. The index implies no growth in quarterly manufacturing activity – which would represent a slowdown according to recent official data.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013
CPI preview – March quarter 2013

CPI preview – March quarter 2013

24 April 2013

With little indication of inflation pressures emerging in the early months of 2013, we expect the CPI release (due 24 April) to confirm that underlying inflation remained subdued in March quarter 2013. We see underlying inflation remaining within the RBA’s target over the medium to longer…

CPI preview – March quarter 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013

24 April 2013

Global financial markets are digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) where bank depositors are being forced to take losses. Pre-crisis global financial markets had been on a strong rally, especially against the background of still sluggish economic performance in the…

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013
Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2013

Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2013

23 April 2013

Exports from both Australia and New Zealand to the Asian Tiger economies (ASEAN, S Korea, HK and Taiwan) remain below their previous peaks, largely reflecting lower prices for key export commodities.

Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

19 April 2013

Business confidence lifts from late 2012 lows but still below average. That reflects better global confidence, stronger equity prices and lower borrowing rates at home. Conditions still subdued and with marked weakness in trade and consumer dependent sectors. Forward indicators …

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013
Brief China Economic Update -15 April 2013

Brief China Economic Update -15 April 2013

18 April 2013

According to Chinese National Accounts released today, the Chinese economy grew 1.6% in the March quarter, which is a 7.7% increase on the same period last year. This result is softer than expected and casts some doubt over expectations for a robust recovery in the Chinese economy...

Brief China Economic Update -15 April 2013
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013

18 April 2013

Charitable giving slowed in the year to February 2013 as economic conditions and consumption weakened, and business and consumers became more cautious. The NAB Charitable Giving Index grew by 2.6% (12-month average) in February 2013 – down from 8.3% in the same period one year earlier.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2013

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2013

12 April 2013

Housing market sentiment rises across all states except Queensland. NAB Residential Property Index climbs sharply as more property professionals report capital and income growth. The out-performance of WA continues, but there was a big turnaround in expectations in Victoria. All states …

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2013
US Economic Update – April 2013

US Economic Update – April 2013

10 April 2013

Partial data for the March quarter are pointing to a noticeable pick-up in GDP growth following only weak growth in the December quarter. We are expecting GDP growth of 2.4% (revised from 2.2%) in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. While we expect growth to slow modestly in the June quarter, it ....

US Economic Update – April 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013

10 April 2013

Our global forecasts remain little changed at 3.3% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014. Renewed Euro-zone instability has taken a toll on global equity markets, which had strengthened quite markedly since late 2012, especially when compared to global economic activity and commodity markets.

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013

10 April 2013

Commodity markets have turned bearish again following softer than expected economic data outcomes and concerns over a government crack down on Chinese real estate. The Cyprus banking crisis has also dampened confidence, while the terms of the EU bailout, and subsequent rhetoric has …

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013

9 April 2013

Global growth forecasts unchanged. Activity still sluggish but set to accelerate in second half of 2013. Financial markets digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) and new Japanese monetary policy.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013
Monthly Business Survey – March 2013

Monthly Business Survey – March 2013

9 April 2013

Business conditions fall to weakest level in almost four years but confidence steady. Previous surge in activity in consumer sectors retail & manufacturing unwinds, with signs lower interest rates need more time to fully work through economy.

Monthly Business Survey – March 2013
Oil Market Update – March 2013

Oil Market Update – March 2013

9 April 2013

Oil prices weaken in March, reflecting European crisis fears following Cyprus deal, a recovery in North Sea oil production and a return of South Sudan oil exports. Most notable declines were recorded for Brent and Tapis oil. Global oil demand forecasts for 2013 revised down reflecting …

Oil Market Update – March 2013
Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013

Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013

9 April 2013

The recent rally in bulk commodity prices has stalled with both coal and iron ore prices giving back some of their recent gains; average monthly prices declined in March. Global steel production has continued to grow at a good pace in recent months, driven by increasing Chinese …

Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013

3 April 2013

Online Retail Sales Index weaker in February. Sales grew by +19% yoy in the month, the weakest growth rate since May 2012. For the twelve months ending February 2013, Australia’s online retail spending totaled $13.1 billion. This level is equivalent to around 5.9% of Australia’s …

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013
Chinese Monthly Update – 22 March 2013

Chinese Monthly Update – 22 March 2013

25 March 2013

In this months economic update we revisit our outlook for the Chinese economy and what we can expect to see from the People’s Bank of China over the forecast horizon.

Chinese Monthly Update – 22 March 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2012

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2012

22 March 2013

Post‐farmgate agribusiness conditions lifted in the December quarter to be moderately positive after three consecutive quarters of decline. Customer demand, availability of suitable labour, government policy and regulation to act as constraints. Medium‐term expectations improved…

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2012
State Economic Update – March 2013

State Economic Update – March 2013

20 March 2013

The disparity between business conditions that became increasingly pronounced following the GFC has narrowed over recent quarters; however, the convergence of conditions readings largely reflects a weakening in previously stronger performing industries and regions, suggesting…

State Economic Update – March 2013
China Economic Update – March 2013

China Economic Update – March 2013

15 March 2013

It has been an eventful month with the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) getting underway early last week, while a number of policies to curb property prices were also announced in the lead up to the gathering – triggering a sharp correction in equity markets.

China Economic Update – March 2013
US Economic Update – March 2013

US Economic Update – March 2013

15 March 2013

Economic (GDP) growth appears to have resumed in March quarter after December quarter lull. We are expecting GDP growth of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. Growth to be supported by some fading headwinds, growing business investment and continued recovery in the housing market.

US Economic Update – March 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013

13 March 2013

Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook has firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best.

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013

12 March 2013

Global economy still sluggish in late 2012 but equities strengthen on stronger risk appetite and expectations of sustained global recovery. Partial data suggest better start to 2013; we still see marginally better growth in major advanced economies this year, accelerating in 2014.

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013
Monthly Business Survey – February 2013

Monthly Business Survey – February 2013

12 March 2013

Business conditions & confidence both edge down in February. High AUD hurting manufacturing and lack of non-mining demand weighing on most sectors. Large falls in orders, poor capacity use, and weak capex plans (esp. mining) don’t augur well for near-term (weak) domestic demand.

Monthly Business Survey – February 2013
NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?

NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?

12 March 2013

The recent capex and exploration expectations data suggest that mining investment may be approaching a turning point. A decline is inevitable: the question is when and how fast. On the basis of past engineering construction commencements, there are reasons to believe …

NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013

8 March 2013

Global and domestic financial markets have continued to improve as confidence in the global economic outlook firms. Strong underlying fundamentals of the US economy and signs of recovery in China have encouraged a more bullish market outlook. Commodity markets are less buoyant.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013
RBA Leaves Rates on Hold

RBA Leaves Rates on Hold

6 March 2013

As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.00% yesterday, also retaining their monetary easing bias, or in their words, “the inflation outlook, as assessed at present, would afford scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand”.

RBA Leaves Rates on Hold
Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013

5 March 2013

Once again, movements in commodity prices have been dominated by events in China and growing speculation over the timed withdrawal of QE stimulus by the US Fed. With market participants on the sidelines throughout most of February due to many of the Asian economies celebrating the …

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013
Agribusiness View – February 2013

Agribusiness View – February 2013

28 February 2013

This month in Agribusiness View, we have an in-depth talk with food producer Maggie Beer, hear about Asia’s growing demand for milk and dairy products, and learn how grain growers can manage their risk. We also give you a new view on women in the agricultural industry.

Agribusiness View – February 2013
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Dec 2012

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Dec 2012

22 February 2013

NAB Commercial Property Index increased slightly to -17 points in Q4’12 but performance varied across individual property markets. CBD hotel index rose strongly, but retail and office indices hit new lows as economy slowed. Recovery expectations also postponed in all markets …

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Dec 2012
China Economic Update – February 2013

China Economic Update – February 2013

20 February 2013

As is usually the case for this time of year, the seasonal impacts from the Lunar New Year holiday are reaping havoc with China’s economic data. In addition to the obvious seasonal impacts, statistical authorities also refrain from releasing some of the more closely watched statistics …

China Economic Update – February 2013
US Economic Update – February 2013

US Economic Update – February 2013

20 February 2013

US GDP fell in the December quarter but the underlying trend is modest growth. Extremely loose monetary policy likely to continue for an extended period. Expect QE3 monthly asset purchases will finish at end of 2013. Fed funds rate likely on hold until late 2015/early 2016

US Economic Update – February 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012

19 February 2013

SME confidence & conditions weaken a touch in Q4 and poor relative to history; sentiment and activity of SMEs a touch weaker than their larger counterparts. Forward indicators remain subdued implying little upturn in near-term activity. Weakness in manufacturing, retail, wholesale and ….

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012
2013 Economic outlook for SMEs

2013 Economic outlook for SMEs

12 February 2013

SME confidence is expected to increase as financial markets show some improvement and consumers continue to spend strongly in certain sectors. While the dollar is expected to remain high, the cash rate could fall as low as 2.25 percent this year, reveals NAB’s Head of Australian Economics.

2013 Economic outlook for SMEs
Monthly Business Survey – January 2013

Monthly Business Survey – January 2013

12 February 2013

Business confidence hangs on to gains made last month on reduced global fears. Business conditions improve a touch, but still poor. Signs that previously stronger industries are being dragged down by weakness elsewhere. Capacity utilisation now lowest since 2001 and forward orders remain …

Monthly Business Survey – January 2013
Asian Tigers Economic Update – February 2013

Asian Tigers Economic Update – February 2013

11 February 2013

After having stalled through much of last year, the process of trade integration between Australasia and East Asia regained momentum at the end of 2012 – especially exports to China. Exports from both Australia and New Zealand to the “Tiger” economies remain below their earlier levels.

Asian Tigers Economic Update – February 2013
Corporate Finance Insights – February 2013

Corporate Finance Insights – February 2013

7 February 2013

There's been considerable debate recently around whether the natural resources boom has ended. In this edition of Corporate Finance Insights we step back from the day-today volatility in coal, iron ore and energy prices and try to understand some of the key drivers of the recent boom.

Corporate Finance Insights – February 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012

7 February 2013

Business conditions weaken to lowest level since June quarter 2009; weakness very apparent in construction, manufacturing and now mining. Forward indicators worsen. Confidence edges lower and very subdued – especially in mining. Medium-term expectations poor and capex lower again.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012

5 February 2013

Online Retail Sales Index dipped in December (from Nov peak) – a seasonal trend around Christmas. Sales up 23% yoy, but slowing implying a ‘weaker online’ December. In 2012, Australia’s online retail spending was $12.8 billion. This level is around 5.8% of the size of Australia’s.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012
Basel 3: Impacts and Opportunities for Superannuation Funds

Basel 3: Impacts and Opportunities for Superannuation Funds

4 February 2013

Basel 3 represents significant regulatory change, with profound impact on the global financial system, including Australia. This publication and related articles look at the likely impacts of Basel 3 and potential opportunities for Superannuation funds.

Basel 3: Impacts and Opportunities for Superannuation Funds
US Economic Update – US GDP 2012 Q4

US Economic Update – US GDP 2012 Q4

4 February 2013

US GDP fell by 0.1% (annualized rate) in the December quarter following quite solid growth in the previous quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. The quarterly decline reflects a big drop in federal defence spending and slower inventory growth as well as a decline in net exports.

US Economic Update – US GDP 2012 Q4
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Dec 2012

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Dec 2012

1 February 2013

NAB Residential Property Index rises in Q4’12 as the rate of decline in national house prices slows and rents grow. Property professionals expect mild house price gains in the next 1-2 years, with expectations for capital gains highest in WA and weakest in SA/NT.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Dec 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013

1 February 2013

Financial and commodity markets have generally strengthened recently, following the last minute agreement to hold off the US fiscal cliff. Signs of strengthening in China’s manufacturing sector has also provided some confidence about the outlook for global growth.

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013

31 January 2013

Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best. Central bank action in the Euro-zone, US and Japan has boosted market hopes

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013
China Monthly Economic Update – 29 January 2013

China Monthly Economic Update – 29 January 2013

31 January 2013

National accounts for the December quarter came in slightly stronger than expected, suggesting the economy has achieved a soft landing, at least for now. Real GDP growth rose to 7.9% yoy, ending seven consecutive quarters of slowing growth. Growth for the year came in at 7.8%

China Monthly Economic Update – 29 January 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013

29 January 2013

Global economy sluggish in late 2012 but signs of an upturn, that gathers pace through next two years. Financial markets strengthen reflecting “risk on” as confidence in global outlook strengthens in wake of central bank action. Emerging market economies will still drive global growth.

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013
Monthly Business Survey – December 2012

Monthly Business Survey – December 2012

29 January 2013

Business confidence posts a sharp jump in December, but not so activity and forward indicators, which remain poor - particularly wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction. Better external sentiment (temporary avoidance of the US ‘fiscal cliff’), strengthening in Chinese data

Monthly Business Survey – December 2012
Brief China Economic Update – 18 January 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 18 January 2013

22 January 2013

Today’s economic data releases for China came in broadly in line with expectations, providing evidence that the economic slowdown may have bottomed in the September quarter. The national accounts show that the economy expanded by 7.9% over the year to the December quarter...

Brief China Economic Update – 18 January 2013
CPI preview – December quarter 2012

CPI preview – December quarter 2012

22 January 2013

We expect the December quarter CPI release (due 23 January) to confirm that inflationary pressures remained moderate in the final months of 2012. We expect a core inflation rate of 0.7% (2.4% through the year; including the impact of carbon), unchanged from the September quarter...

CPI preview – December quarter 2012
US Economic Update – January 2013

US Economic Update – January 2013

21 January 2013

The ‘fiscal cliff’ has been substantially scaled back. The fate of scheduled automatic budget cuts (delayed for only two months) is still subject to negotiation and an increase in the debt limit is also still to be agreed. The U.S. economy continues to track along at a moderate pace...

US Economic Update – January 2013
NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013

NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013

21 January 2013

RBA now expected to cut by 75 points to 2¼% as economy struggles. With the economy continuing to weaken and unemployment set to rise noticeably through 2013 the RBA will need to cut significantly further than previously expected in 2013.

NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013
Business View Magazine – Summer 2012

Business View Magazine – Summer 2012

21 January 2013

In this edition of Business View, we talk to Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan and hear from some of Australia’s most unique and successful business owners, including Maggie Beer. We also offer new angles on pricing, marketing, self managed super funds and creativity in the workplace.

Business View Magazine – Summer 2012
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012

9 January 2013

Online Retail Sales Index surges ahead of Christmas, but year-on-year growth only edged higher to 27%. In the twelve months to November 2012, Australians spent around $12.6 billion on online retail. This level is equivalent to 5.7% of the scale of traditional bricks & mortar retail

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012
Health Sector Insights – December 2012

Health Sector Insights – December 2012

21 December 2012

We explore various topics including a current view on the management of foreign exchange and interest rate risks and the results of a client survey conducted by our Group Economics team on current business conditions and reforms in the Australian healthcare sector.

Health Sector Insights – December 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – December 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – December 2012

18 December 2012

China’s economic indicators for November continued the broadly improving trend seen recently, supporting our expectation of a modest recovery in GDP growth this quarter. Government investment stimulus and accommodative monetary policy will help offset headwinds from external sectors.

Chinese Monthly Update – December 2012
Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012

Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012

12 December 2012

Although interest rates are historically low in the advanced economies and central banks have stepped up liquidity injections, their pace of economic growth remains very weak. The big emerging economies are driving global growth, and it looks as if their economies are stabilising.

Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012

12 December 2012

The Australian economy appears to have stumbled into the December quarter. For agricultural commodities, markets have been fairly mixed over the past month. Grains prices have softened a little on expected demand rationing while sugar and cotton remain subdued.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012

11 December 2012

Global growth still sluggish and expected to stay that way in 2013. US growth is moderate, Japan and Euro-zone weak, emerging economies now driving global expansion. Australian economy slowed in Q3 and may soften again in Q4.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012
Monthly Business Survey – November 2012

Monthly Business Survey – November 2012

11 December 2012

The brakes have firmly tightened on activity in November; business conditions very weak in construction, retail, manufacturing and wholesale. Signs of trouble ahead with confidence slumping to lowest level since April 2009, with little hint of a pre-Christmas revival

Monthly Business Survey – November 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – November 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – November 2012

10 December 2012

China’s economy showed further signs of steadying in October with most of the partial indicators recording an improvement. Year-ended growth in production, retail sales, fixed investment and exports all accelerated in the month. In contrast, bank credit came in below expectations.

Chinese Monthly Update – November 2012
Economic Comment: US Fiscal Cliff

Economic Comment: US Fiscal Cliff

10 December 2012

The fiscal cliff refers to the large fiscal contraction that will occur early in January 2013 due to increases in taxes and reductions in spending under existing law. Given the state of the economy and the limited ability of monetary policy to respond

Economic Comment: US Fiscal Cliff
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2012

28 November 2012

Australia’s online retail sales are continuing to climb, up to A$12.3 billion in the year ended October 2012, but for now the share of total spending is still modest, at around 5.6%. The rate of growth in online sales has strengthened considerably over the last six months.

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2012
China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia

China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia

21 November 2012

China’s meteoric rise to becoming one of the world’s economic superpowers has redefined global economic growth, specifically, the fundamental drivers of commodity markets. China’s advancement has had significant ramifications for commodity exporting economies, including Australia.

China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia
Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012

Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012

21 November 2012

The post farm gate agribusiness conditions index posted a decent turnaround following a very weak June quarter. Driving the result was an increase across the three key components that make up the index, with the sharpest turnaround being trading conditions.

Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012

13 November 2012

Global growth still sluggish with major divergences between different regions. Below trend growth expected to continue into 2013 as world economy averts major risks in US and Euro-zone. Australian economy stumbles into Q4, with growth clearly below trend.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012
Monthly Business Survey – October 2012

Monthly Business Survey – October 2012

13 November 2012

Business conditions stumble to weakest level in more than three years, with wholesale and manufacturing conditions especially subdued. Confidence also edges lower. Activity forecasts unchanged but 25bp February rate cut on the cards, providing modest Q4 CPI.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012

13 November 2012

China’s strong import program is one of several global factors colliding to underpin wheat prices through the end of the year and into 2013, according to the latest Rural Commodities Wrap, which this month focuses on wheat. NAB estimates the crop will come in at 20.6 million tonnes

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012
US Economic Update – November 2012

US Economic Update – November 2012

13 November 2012

The US economy is only growing at a modest rate. GDP grew by 0.5% qoq (or 2.0% annualized) in the September quarter, and we expect similar growth for the present quarter. Hurricane Sandy is a downside risk for December quarter growth; but upside risk for subsequent quarters.

US Economic Update – November 2012
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – September 2012

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – September 2012

13 November 2012

NAB Commercial Property Index hits new low of -19 points in Q3 2012 as domestic economy passes through a soft patch with business conditions weaker and forward indicators concerning. Retail participants least optimistic, but expectations soften most in office and CBD Hotel markets.

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – September 2012
Gold Market Update – October 2012

Gold Market Update – October 2012

6 November 2012

The gold price rose by a spectacular 7 per cent over September. Some of the strength has subsequently been unwound, with the gold price easing to around US$1,710 per ounce in early November. We have lifted our forecasts a little

Gold Market Update – October 2012
Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012

5 November 2012

Bulk commodity prices have been mixed recently with coal prices generally stabilising around recent lows, while iron ore prices have performed surprisingly well, supported by recent signs of improvement in the Chinese economy. Growth in global crude steel production remains subdued

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012

1 November 2012

Australian online retail sales up 23 percent yoy in September, but the level is still modest compared to traditional sales. Domestic online retailers continue to innovate – in an effort to develop or maintain a competitive advantage.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012
US Economic Update – US GDP – Q2 2012

US Economic Update – US GDP – Q2 2012

30 October 2012

US GDP grew by 0.5% qoq in the September quarter, stronger than in the previous quarter but still only modest. The strengthening in growth was due to consumption, housing investment and government spending picking up. Of concern, however, was a decline in business investment.

US Economic Update – US GDP – Q2 2012
Base Metals Market Update – October 2012

Base Metals Market Update – October 2012

30 October 2012

Metals prices received a significant boost over September, following a suite of policy stimulus announcements by some of the major central banks. In aggregate, base metal prices rose by 10 per cent over September but were 7 per cent lower than levels one year earlier.

Base Metals Market Update – October 2012
Oil Market Update – October 2012

Oil Market Update – October 2012

30 October 2012

Oil prices weaken in October but remain quite high. Attention now shifting towards the Asian economies, which have surprised markets on the downside in recent months. Near-term forecasts lifted on geo-political risk, 2013 forecasts left unchanged.

Oil Market Update – October 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – October 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – October 2012

29 October 2012

China’s economic growth decelerated for the seventh consecutive quarter. However, quarter on quarter growth came in stronger than expected and revisions to previous quarters suggest the near-term growth momentum has actually improved.

Chinese Monthly Update – October 2012
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012

25 October 2012

SME confidence and conditions better in Q3 but still below average; sentiment of SMEs now in line with their larger counterparts but activity, capacity utilisation and new orders continue to under perform. Strength in recreation & personal services and transport a consistent theme

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012
Manufacturing Sector Insights – October 2012

Manufacturing Sector Insights – October 2012

24 October 2012

This edition explores key topics and issues which have real potential for impact on manufacturers and the concept of optimisation in the context of business models, capital structure, funding profiles, working capital efficiency, approach to risk management and cost base.

Manufacturing Sector Insights – October 2012
Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012

Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012

23 October 2012

The Manufacturing Activity Index was unchanged in Q3 – despite diverging trends in the index components – remaining at negative levels. The index indicates further falls in Manufacturing growth in the quarter, which remains burdened by global economic trends and the strength of the dollar

Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012
Charitable Giving Index – July 2012

Charitable Giving Index – July 2012

23 October 2012

The first NAB Charitable Giving Index shows that charitable giving is growing, despite a softening domestic economy, flat employment growth and persistent consumer cautiousness. NAB and data analytics firm Quantium reviewed donations made by credit card, direct debit, BPAY and EFTPOS

Charitable Giving Index – July 2012
Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012

18 October 2012

Business conditions improve in the quarter but still soft. However, Monthly survey results suggest conditions weakened towards the end of the quarter. Forward indicators remain very weak. Confidence up a touch but still at downbeat levels – especially mining

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012
State Economic Update – October 2012

State Economic Update – October 2012

16 October 2012

Economic conditions in NSW are likely to improve only marginally over the coming year with conditions within the state likely to vary wildly. By all measures, the Victorian economy continues to under perform the national average, with SFD growth slowing to 2.1 per cent in 2011-12

State Economic Update – October 2012
US Economic Update – October 2012

US Economic Update – October 2012

15 October 2012

GDP growth was only 0.3% qoq in the June quarter and partial indictors suggest that is was only slightly higher in the September quarter. This is consistent with the finding of the Federal Reserve’s ‘Beige book’ released this week.

US Economic Update – October 2012
Monthly Business Survey – September 2011

Monthly Business Survey – September 2011

11 October 2012

Conditions recover and businesses take comfort from better sales, a lower AUD and talk of interest rate cuts. Global uncertainty still weighing on near-term activity indicators.  Business conditions improved in September, after edging down over the previous two months, with the outcome suggesting that the Australian economy may be stabilising. However, there are still signs […]

Monthly Business Survey – September 2011
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – September 2012

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – September 2012

11 October 2012

NAB Residential Property Index turns positive in Q3’12 as property professionals see downward correction in national house prices slowing. Market expected to recover in the next year, with prices rising 0.4% nationally. Prices to rise in all states except Victoria.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – September 2012
Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012

11 October 2012

Over September, minerals and energy prices have been assisted higher by central bank monetary easing and various other stimulus measures taken by policy makers around the world. Bad news has become good, and good news has become ‘bad’ for markets.

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012
Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012

Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012

11 October 2012

The latest business surveys suggest that conditions in the big advanced economies have stabilised after the softening in growth that took place since late 2011. Monthly trade and industrial indicators still point to a broad-based slowing across the emerging economie

Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012
Monthly Business Survey – September 2012

Monthly Business Survey – September 2012

9 October 2012

Business confidence recovers modestly but still down beat – especially mining. Business conditions disappoint – with struggling retail and wholesale falling significantly. Forward orders noticeably weaker and capacity utilisation trending down - indicative of weakening demand.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012

9 October 2012

Global economy slowing but recent advanced economy surveys show stabilisation. Broad-based slowing under way across emerging economies. Global forecasts a touch lower in 2013 but risks remain (US “fiscal cliff”). Australian economy softening to below trend amid restructuring stresses.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012
Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012

Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012

3 October 2012

Growth in online spending remains strong - relative to the past year - with spending increasing by around +22% year-on-year in August. This level is slightly softer than in July. In the year to August 2012, Australians spent a total of $11.9 billion in online retail sales. This figure is equivalent to 5.4% of traditional bricks & mortar retail spending (excluding cafes, restaurants and takeaway food) for the year ended July 2012.

Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012
Corporate Finance Insights – September 2012

Corporate Finance Insights – September 2012

28 September 2012

NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. The report is published four times a year.

Corporate Finance Insights – September 2012
Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012

Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012

28 September 2012

A monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. The Bigger Picture – A Global & Australian Economic Perspective Global: The global economy is experiencing a broad-based slowdown with both the advanced and emerging economies reporting a softening in growth. Conditions vary between regions with recession in Western Europe, slowdowns in China, India and […]

Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012
RBA to ease further in coming months

RBA to ease further in coming months

27 September 2012

We have changed our forecast and now see the RBA moving to cut the cash rate again in the coming months, probably by a cumulative 50 basis points; What has changed is that in recent weeks the RBA has signalled concern about the mix of the sustained drop in commodity and ongoing high AUD; Other […]

RBA to ease further in coming months
US Economic Update

US Economic Update

27 September 2012

The Fed has announced further, aggressive, stimulus – extended forward guidance and a new round of QE. The Fed is also signalling that monetary policy stimulus will be maintained for longer than would normally be the case when the recovery strengthens. The latest indicators continue to suggest that the U.S. is experiencing only modest growth. […]

US Economic Update
IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011

IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011

22 September 2012

The IMF has revised down its forecasts of world growth, particularly for advanced economies. Its Australian forecasts have also been downgraded, to 1.8% in 2011 (from 3.0% in April – catch up after weaker than expected GDP in H1) and 3.3% in 2012 (from 3.5%).  For 2011 NABs forecast is 1.9%, not materially different from […]

IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011
Chinese Monthly Update – September 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – September 2012

18 September 2012

NAB’s Global Economic Research provides up to date commentary on global economic developments in the USA, Asia, New Zealand. China’s partial economic indicators for the month suggest that conditions haven’t quite stabilised as expected, but neither have they deteriorated significantly. Our previous expectation that economic growth would remain unchanged from Q2 now looks unlikely. Recent […]

Chinese Monthly Update – September 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012

12 September 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales growth recorded […]

Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts

Global & Australian Forecasts

11 September 2012

NAB’s Global and Australian Forecast provides a monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. Global economy still slowing with softening across advanced and emerging economies. Growth set to pick-up in 2013 as worst economic risks averted. Australian economy still drifting through soft patch with falling commodity prices now weighing on mining. But investment […]

Global & Australian Forecasts
Corporate Finance Insights – May 2012

Corporate Finance Insights – May 2012

11 September 2012

NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression.  The report is published four times a year and explores topical issues facing Australian Corporates. Welcome to the May 2012 edition of Corporate Finance Insights. In this […]

Corporate Finance Insights – May 2012
Monthly Business Survey – August 2012

Monthly Business Survey – August 2012

11 September 2012

Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions improve on the back of strengthening trading and profitability – especially in interest sensitive sectors. But confidence falls […]

Monthly Business Survey – August 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012

31 August 2012

Global economy slows with softening evident across advanced and emerging economies. Worst risks should be averted and global growth to pick-up slightly in 2013. Australian economy at trend but softening, while confidence helped by Euro-zone comments and lower interest rates. Labour market and orders still soft but activity to hold up sufficiently to circumvent need […]

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012

24 August 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global growth weighed down by weakness in big developed economies, emerging markets also slowing Australian farm sector mixed but likely to benefit from US drought, which could add around $6 billion in export incomes to the […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012
Implications of the US Drought – August 2012

Implications of the US Drought – August 2012

23 August 2012

Drought has led to big downward revisions to US crop production. Impact on farm sector incomes will be mitigated by several factors, particularly the large expected increases in crop prices. However, these price rises will squeeze livestock and dairy producers. Farm sector will be a headwind to US GDP growth in 2012 similar to that […]

Implications of the US Drought – August 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – August 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – August 2012

16 August 2012

Partial economic indicators are starting to stabilise somewhat, but the overall trend in the data was disappointing for the month of July given our expectations for a slight improvement in economic growth over H2 2012. Industrial production softened further along with nominal retail sales, while export growth and bank loans were both well below expectations. […]

Chinese Monthly Update – August 2012
Monthly Business Survey – July 2012

Monthly Business Survey – July 2012

14 August 2012

Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions worsen in the face of poor trading and profits, with weakness particularly evident in retail and wholesale – […]

Monthly Business Survey – July 2012
US Economic Update – August 2012

US Economic Update – August 2012

10 August 2012

US GDP grew by only a modest 0.4% (or 1.5% annualized) in the June quarter, a slightly lower rate of growth than in the previous quarter. The composition of GDP was not positive, with the inventory cycle likely to be a moderate headwind in the near term. We expect growth to be similar in the […]

US Economic Update – August 2012
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012

3 August 2012

US natural gas lift on winding down inventories (after seasonal adjustment), and increased consumption due to shift away from coal to gas in electricity generation for summer European prices weaken as increased Russian supplies, soft demand and reduced arbitrage opportunities to Asia see more LNG enter European natural gas market Prices in Asia Pacific surge […]

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012
Gold market update – August 2012

Gold market update – August 2012

3 August 2012

London 2012 Olympics upon us but the boost to gold demand from Australian athletes still quite limited. The gold price eased by 0.4 per cent over July, and following a rally late last week, has fallen back to around US$1,590 per ounce. It is difficult to know what direction the gold price will take in […]

Gold market update – August 2012
Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012

Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012

3 August 2012

Bulk commodity prices have fallen noticeably in response to poor demand for steel and electricity, and improving supplies of the commodities. Both coal and iron ore prices have fallen to around their lowest levels since late 2009, consistent with Chinese GDP growth which slowed to its lowest rate in over three years in the June […]

Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012
US GDP – Q2 2012

US GDP – Q2 2012

31 July 2012

US GDP grew by only a modest 0.4% (or 1.5% annualized) in the June quarter, a slightly lower rate of growth than in the previous quarter.

US GDP – Q2 2012
Transport & Logistics Sector Insights – July 2012

Transport & Logistics Sector Insights – July 2012

31 July 2012

NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to our 2012 publication of Sector Insights: Transport & Logistics. In this edition, we […]

Transport & Logistics Sector Insights – July 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2012

30 July 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. With traditional sales totalling […]

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2012
Government Sector Insights – July 2012

Government Sector Insights – July 2012

30 July 2012

NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to our inaugural issue of Sector Insights: Government. Both domestically and globally, in this […]

Government Sector Insights – July 2012
Health reform spotlight

Health reform spotlight

28 July 2012

We headed along to the AMA annual conference recently held in Melbourne where Federal Health Minister Tanya Plibersek outlined the health reforms handed down in the 2012–13 Budget.

Health reform spotlight
Chinese Monthly Update – July 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – July 2012

18 July 2012

The Chinese economy continues to slow, albeit at a relatively controlled pace. Real GDP growth eased to 7.6 per cent, broadly in line with expectations, but the slowest pace in more than three years. Nevertheless, partial economic indicators are providing tentative signs of stabilising, with new loans increasing, while fixed asset investment and real retail […]

Chinese Monthly Update – July 2012
US Economic Update – July 2012

US Economic Update – July 2012

13 July 2012

The recent softness in economic indicators continued over the last month, and now point to GDP growth in the June quarter being slightly weaker than the March quarter’s modest pace. While we still expect GDP growth to strengthen in the second half of the year we have trimmed our growth expectations for 2012 (from 2.2% […]

US Economic Update – July 2012
Monthly Business Survey – June 2012

Monthly Business Survey – June 2012

10 July 2012

Business conditions improve slightly but overall activity remains soft; forward orders and employment conditions imply weak near-term demand. Confidence falls marginally, implying little relief from RBA rate cuts; European uncertainty and new taxes may be weighing on sentiment. Government handouts provide some respite to consumer dependant sectors but benefits may be short-lived – time will […]

Monthly Business Survey – June 2012
Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

Retail drives ASX 300 business conditions lower in Q2, with a weaker trend tipped for Q3. Business conditions deteriorated across the economy in the second quarter of 2012, with declines recorded among firms in both the ASX 300 survey and the broader Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). ASX 300 firms recorded a net balance of 0 […]

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012

30 June 2012

The NAB Manufacturing Activity Index provides detailed analysis of activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector and has been constructed to replicate quarterly movements in activity within the sector. The Manufacturing Activity Index* eased further in Q2, remaining in negative territory – despite some divergent trends in individual sub-sectors. The index implies declines in quarter-on-quarter growth in […]

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012
Retail Sector Insights – June 2012

Retail Sector Insights – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to our June 2012 edition of Sector Insights: Retail. The Australian retail sector has […]

Retail Sector Insights – June 2012
China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012

China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB takes a closer look at the growing economic integration of the Australian economy to growth in the Chinese economy. Australia’s growth is becoming increasingly sensitive to the strength of the Chinese economy China’s growth looks to be heading towards a soft landing But what would happen if growth is de-railed? It seems likely that […]

China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence & conditions deteriorate further. Weakness in small firms increasingly pronounced compared to their larger counterparts – weakness in manufacturing, retail and construction a persistent theme across all small firm […]

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey focuses on conditions in the Australian residential property market. NAB’s Residential Property Index fell in the June quarter, weighed down by weaker conditions in Victoria and NSW. The national housing market is expected to remain soft over the next year with property professionals predicting a -0.7% decline in house […]

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – June 2012
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate business conditions weaken through June. Post farm gate agribusiness conditions decline further in June, due mostly to a large fall in customer confidence Medium term expectations continue to wind back, pulling capex expectations along with them […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Commercial Property Index slips to a new low of -16 points in Q2’12 as fewer property professionals expect positive capital  or income returns. Retail and industrial market participants are very pessimistic, but expectations are also softer in office and CBD hotel markets. WA is the most optimistic state in nearly all sectors and Victoria is […]

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2012
Property Sector Insights – June 2012

Property Sector Insights – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to the June 2012 edition of Property Insights. It’s hard to believe it is […]

Property Sector Insights – June 2012
US Fiscal Policy – 22 June 2012

US Fiscal Policy – 22 June 2012

22 June 2012

Under current law there will be a large fiscal contraction in the United States in 2013.  If it went ahead it could significantly impact the economy. However, experience suggests that many of the spending cuts and tax increases will be deferred. We expect the fiscal headwind in 2013 to be similar to that of 2012. […]

US Fiscal Policy – 22 June 2012
Base Metals Market Update – June 2012

Base Metals Market Update – June 2012

21 June 2012

In aggregate, base metal prices fell by 4 per cent over May and were 19 per cent lower than levels one year earlier. Currently, prices for most base metals are below their May averages. Metals prices have been volatile as a result of events in Europe and growth concerns in China and the US. Relief […]

Base Metals Market Update – June 2012
Oil Market Update

Oil Market Update

21 June 2012

Oil prices continue to soften on ongoing concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, Spanish bond yields rising above 7 per cent and softening US and Chinese economic activity Oil price forecasts revised down, reflecting ongoing market concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, weaker growth forecasts for the US and China and easing supply-side concerns Global crude oil market loosening […]

Oil Market Update
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012

19 June 2012

Business conditions weaken; forward orders and other indicators of near-term demand still soft. Confidence slips further, with heightened European uncertainty seemingly outweighing relief provided from RBA rate cuts – new taxes may also be weighing on sentiment. Business conditions weakened in the June quarter, following modestly better activity over recent quarters. Official ABS data suggest […]

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – June 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – June 2012

15 June 2012

The PBoC cut benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25bp this month in response to a clear moderation in inflation and soft demand conditions. Domestic demand may receive support from recent stimulus measures, but global uncertainty (particularly in Europe) will continue to pose headwinds. The partial economic indicators for May continued to be relatively soft, […]

Chinese Monthly Update – June 2012
Monthly Business Survey – May 2012

Monthly Business Survey – May 2012

12 June 2012

Business conditions now the weakest in three years: mining and construction down sharply. Confidence falters on global Greek exit fears, weak orders and negative reaction to the May Budget. Indicators of demand imply softer near-term activity and more jobs shedding in weak sectors. RBA to cut again in coming months.  Business confidence deteriorated sharply in […]

Monthly Business Survey – May 2012
US Economic Update – June 2012

US Economic Update – June 2012

8 June 2012

The recent weakness in jobs growth continued into May. It is probably, in part, a correction to the surprisingly strong growth in early 2012. Indicators suggest that June quarter GDP growth will maintain the previous quarter’s modest pace. While we still expect GDP growth to strengthen in the second half of the year we have […]

US Economic Update – June 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012

1 June 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices come under pressure as European concerns sees heightened financial market volatility Australian poultry industry on firm footing, buoyed by rising productivity and solid growth in per capita consumption Decline in domestic pig meat […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012

31 May 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales growth continued […]

Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – May 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – May 2012

16 May 2012

Partial indicators for April were disappointing across the board relative to optimistic market expectations, but we remain happy with our longheld views for China’s growth outlook. Slowing activity has been driven by both an easing in domestic demand, and weak external demand – global economic uncertainty, particularly in Europe, is likely to provide an ongoing […]

Chinese Monthly Update – May 2012
US Economic Update – 11 May 2012

US Economic Update – 11 May 2012

11 May 2012

US GDP grew by 0.5% (or 2.2% annualized) in the March quarter, confirming that the US economy is growing at a modest-to-moderate pace. We expect GDP in the current quarter to grow at a similar rate to the March quarter and then strengthen in the second half of the year. We have left our forecasts […]

US Economic Update – 11 May 2012
Monthly Business Survey – April 2012

Monthly Business Survey – April 2012

7 May 2012

Businesses remain confident of better near-term activity but actual conditions weaken in April – with multi-speed element widening again. Forward indicators remain lacklustre, with a material decline in capacity utilisation signalling increased slack in the economy – and further weakness in the labour market ahead. More rate action to come, although how much depends on […]

Monthly Business Survey – April 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012

30 April 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. The value of the […]

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012
Energy & Utilities Sector Insights – April 2012

Energy & Utilities Sector Insights – April 2012

30 April 2012

NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to our inaugural issue of Sector Insights: Energy & Utilities. We are pleased to […]

Energy & Utilities Sector Insights – April 2012
US GDP – Q1 2012

US GDP – Q1 2012

30 April 2012

US GDP grew by 0.5% (or 2.2% annualized) in the March quarter, confirming that the US economy is growing at a modest-to-moderate pace. There was mixed news on the composition of GDP with inventories making a further contribution to growth and business investment declining. However, consumption and housing investment were strong and there was a […]

US GDP – Q1 2012
2012 best industries

2012 best industries

28 April 2012

Which Australian industries are peaking this year? IBISWorld General Manager, Karen Dobie, dissects the research.

2012 best industries
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012

20 April 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices under pressure from resumption of ‘risk-off’ attitude pervading financial markets Australian wheat crop of 26.1 million tonnes predicted on good subsoil moisture, but acreage lost to canola Wheat prices […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – April 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – April 2012

20 April 2012

The Chinese economy decelerated further at the start of 2012, with real GDP growth at its slowest pace in around three years (rising 8.1 per cent over the year to the March quarter – NAB forecast was for 8.2 per cent). By component, consumption made the largest contribution to growth over the year, while investment […]

Chinese Monthly Update – April 2012
Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012

Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012

19 April 2012

The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions edge higher but lack of jobs growth likely to keep near-term activity fairly soft. Confidence slips back and remains below trend. Forward […]

Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012
Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2012

Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2012

13 April 2012

Growth slowed considerably in the Asian Tiger economies late last year and remains relatively sluggish in 2012. However, some partial indicators suggest that conditions have improved modestly more recently, bolstered by improvements in the US economy, and an apparent v-shape recovery in Thailand from last years floods. However, demand for exports from advanced economies is […]

Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2012
USA Economic Update – 12 April 2012

USA Economic Update – 12 April 2012

12 April 2012

It is too early to say that the disappointing March jobs outcome signals a shift to a much slower pace of jobs growth but some downwards correction was expected.

USA Economic Update – 12 April 2012
Monthly Business Survey – March 2012

Monthly Business Survey – March 2012

10 April 2012

Confidence and conditions grind higher but with little jobs growth. Forward indicators marginally improve but remain subdued. Multi speed economy still to the fore – with non mining edging up a touch. Domestic forecasts edge lower with unemployment up. Rates view unchanged. Businesses appeared slightly more confident about near-term activity in March than in February, […]

Monthly Business Survey – March 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012

31 March 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Growth in online sales […]

Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey

30 March 2012

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate business conditions pull back in early 2012 Post farm gate business conditions fall on lower product prices, availability of materials and labour, falling export sales Medium term expectations pull back as recent results see sector become […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012

29 March 2012

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Seasonal adjustment of SME survey results SME survey data reported in the March 2012 NAB Quarterly SME Business Survey have been seasonally adjusted for the first time in the history of […]

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012
US Economic Update: ‘sterilized’ QE

US Economic Update: ‘sterilized’ QE

28 March 2012

If the Fed undertakes another round of Quantitative Easing it may be ‘sterilized’. That is, the Fed would ensure there is no increase in bank reserves, either through using reverse repurchase agreements or auctioning term deposits to banks. Reverse repos or term deposits are a form of shortterm borrowing. Under unsterilized QE, the asset purchases […]

US Economic Update: ‘sterilized’ QE
State Economic Update – March 2012

State Economic Update – March 2012

21 March 2012

Australian economic commentary on a state by state basis. NSW Following a relatively sluggish year, the growth momentum in NSW appears to be lifting, with SFD increasing by 0.8 per cent in the December quarter. Importantly, NSW appears to have an investment driver with business investment lifting in the December quarter, buoyed by a solid […]

State Economic Update – March 2012
Monthly Business Survey – February 2012

Monthly Business Survey – February 2012

13 March 2012

Confidence retreats while conditions edge higher. Forward indicators remain weak. Retail, manufacturing and construction still struggling while services, transport and mining strong. Growth lowered locally.  Businesses appeared less confident about near-term activity in February than in January. While overall confidence remained positive, uncertainty emanating from the euro-zone and financial markets, the persistent strength in the […]

Monthly Business Survey – February 2012
Euro-zone impact to the healthcare industry

Euro-zone impact to the healthcare industry

3 March 2012

The impact of the Euro-zone financial unrest to the healthcare industry is increasingly affecting importing and exporting decisions of Australian healthcare businesses. Economic backdrop Currency markets continue to be volatile, notes Mike Bligh, NAB Head of Specialised Business, Business Markets and Wholesale Banking, and “significant swings are becoming a daily event. We recently saw the […]

Euro-zone impact to the healthcare industry
Corporate Finance Insights – Feb 2012

Corporate Finance Insights – Feb 2012

26 February 2012

NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression.  The report is published four times a year and explores topical issues facing Australian Corporates. Welcome to the second edition of Corporate Finance Insights. In our first […]

Corporate Finance Insights – Feb 2012
Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012

Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012

26 February 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales strengthen in […]

Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012
India Economic Update – February 2012

India Economic Update – February 2012

16 February 2012

India accounts for around 5% of exports from Australia and 2% from New Zealand, mainly comprising a narrow range of commodities.  After growing strongly since 2000, shipment values from Australia fell in 2011.  India is one of the biggest Asian locations for Australian bank lending with around $US6½ Billion outstanding in the latter half of […]

India Economic Update – February 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012

15 February 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodity prices easing further on increased production, AUD impact on livestock markets Sluggish global consumption growth, increased competition from South America and South Africa impacting Australian wine exports Domestically, Australian wines under increasing pressure from rising import […]

Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012
Monthly Business Survey – January 2012

Monthly Business Survey – January 2012

14 February 2012

Confidence and conditions a touch better but economy still marking time. Sectors remain wide apart. Inflation weakening as retailers increase discounts and one more rate cut possible.  Overall business confidence was relatively firm in the month, with businesses seemingly still taking relief from the recent RBA rate cuts as well some abatement of concerns about […]

Monthly Business Survey – January 2012
Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011

Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011

9 February 2012

The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Despite better business conditions and improved confidence, survey still only suggestive of an economy growing at around trend. Forward indicators slightly better, implying a […]

Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011
Monthly Business Survey – December 2011

Monthly Business Survey – December 2011

31 January 2012

Confidence up a touch in December, despite global economic worries. Conditions consistent with an economy going sideways – but multi- speed. GDP forecasts lowered & two rate cuts now expected in 2012.  Business confidence strengthened a little in December, although it remained below the series long-run average. Business sentiment over recent months has been seemingly […]

Monthly Business Survey – December 2011
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report January 2010 – January 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report January 2010 – January 2012

31 January 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. In a fast-changing environment, […]

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report January 2010 – January 2012
Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012

Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012

19 January 2012

New World Bank projections show 2012 global growth slowing to only 2½%, well below NAB’s 3¼% forecast. The difference is largely illusory and reflects how forecasts are compiled.  On a comparable basis NAB forecasts are slightly lower than the World Bank’s. For further analysis download the full report. Difference over global outlook more apparent than […]

Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012

15 January 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.  Agricultural commodities hit record levels in 2011, to ease in 2012 on massive production response. But considerable risk remains based on weather and Euro-zone debt crisis. Prices for agricultural commodities managed to pick up significantly in 2011, […]

Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012
Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011

30 December 2011

The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Strong rebound in business confidence for ASX300 firms – exceeding the broader economy; business conditions record […]

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011

30 December 2011

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence and conditions rebound but still below levels of their larger counterparts. Low tier (smallest) SMEs struggle. SME firms reported improved confidence in the December quarter – especially compared to […]

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011

15 December 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodities weakening on Euro sovereign debt crisis, rising production prospects Wool prices hit by weakening demand prospects, but still relatively high Australian wool production to rise 3.1 per cent in 2011-12 but exports to remain […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011
Monthly Business Survey – November 2011

Monthly Business Survey – November 2011

30 November 2011

Conditions improve slightly in November and are consistent with an economy growing around trend. Services sectors (ex. finance) and retail doing better. Confidence overall relatively stable – despite European concerns. GDP revised up on mining & consumer strength. Business conditions edged higher in November, after softening a little in the previous month, and are consistent […]

Monthly Business Survey – November 2011
Monthly Business Survey – October 2011

Monthly Business Survey – October 2011

8 November 2011

Conditions soften in October, suggesting growth in the economy is treading water. But, for the second month in a row, confidence has improved. Also tentative signs of Qld re-construction kicking in.  Business conditions softened in October, partly unwinding an improvement in conditions in the previous month, with trend conditions suggestive of an economy that is […]

Monthly Business Survey – October 2011
Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011

20 October 2011

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey is the most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions slump and confidence falters mid-quarter, but monthly profile points to subsequent improving trend. Hours worked strengthens […]

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011
NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Business conditions for ASX300 declined further in Q3 – driven by manufacturing – narrowing the gap […]

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Subdued SME conditions persist and confidence falls further. Business confidence of SMEs fell heavily in the September quarter, consolidating a sharp decline in the June quarter and consistent with the deterioration […]

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate conditions improve after plunging through 2011 Post farm gate business conditions improve but still remain weak High commodity prices and weak customer demand continue to squeeze post farm gate agribusiness sales margins Capacity utilisation collapses in […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011
The Productivity Puzzle – September 2011

The Productivity Puzzle – September 2011

27 September 2011

Commentary on labour productivity growth. Labour productivity growth has slowed markedly in recent years, prompting calls for further economic reform. There is evidence that the mining and utilities industries may have been responsible for around half of this slowdown. This may reflect delays in high levels of new investment coming on stream and the strength […]

The Productivity Puzzle – September 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011

15 September 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.  • Commodity prices weaken on risk-off attitude hitting global markets, but fundamentals still point to solid prices for agricultural commodities • Sugar prices set to weaken as solid crops in India, EU and Russia come online […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011
Monthly Business Survey – August 2011

Monthly Business Survey – August 2011

13 September 2011

Global jitters jolt confidence. But could have been worse given global turmoil. Business conditions only a touch weaker – but with further restructuring evident in a widening of the multi-speed economy.  Business confidence dropped sharply in August, with heightened global uncertainty, large falls in equity markets and the fear of debt market contagion. Confidence deteriorated […]

Monthly Business Survey – August 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011

15 August 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Australian wheat crop downgraded to 21.8 million on dryness in northern NSW, Queensland Beef prices to fall in near term on weakness in Japan, US and high AUD but recover in medium term on tight global […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011
Monthly Business Survey – July 2011

Monthly Business Survey – July 2011

9 August 2011

Business conditions weaken showing an economy continuing to lose momentum and traveling below trend. Confidence remains subdued in the face of continuing uncertainty – but carbon didn’t appear to cause further retreat.  Growth in the domestic economy weakening in July, with business conditions now indicative of below-trend growth. This weakening trend was broad based – […]

Monthly Business Survey – July 2011