Business Research & Insights

Below trend growth to continue

NAB sees a +0.5% q/q (1.9% y/y) GDP print for Q2 2023 which will confirm the slowing in domestic demand we have seen across other indicators. Both ABS retail sales data and our own transactions data points to a flat outcome for consumption following 0.2% growth in Q1.

A soft start to 2023

A slow start for growth in 2023

Growth slows as consumption softens

A solid outcome to round out 2022

Post-COVID normalisation continues.

Slowing growth as consumption, trade normalise

A solid result ahead of a slower H2 2022

A solid outcome ahead of a slower H2 2022.

A solid result despite virus disruptions early in the year.

Imports to weigh on growth despite strong consumption.

A strong rebound in activity as lockdowns end.

Rebound sets the stage for a strong 2022.

GDP Q3 2021 – A short and sharp fall, now firmly in the rear view mirror.

Large fall sets up “W-shaped” recovery.

GDP surprises, rising 0.7% q/q.

A soft outcome ahead of a Q3 fall.

GDP Recovers Pre-COVID Levels

Q1 2021 - GDP continues to recover.

Despite a very strong start to the recovery, the economy is likely to have spare capacity for some time.

Rebound continues as Victoria ends lockdown.

The rebound continues.

A strong rebound as the recovery begins. GDP rose by a large 3.3% in Q3, following the sharp 7% fall in Q2.

Large rebound from COVID impacted Q2.

Q2 GDP fell by a massive 7% (-6.3% y/y), confirming the large hit to economic activity as a result of the shutdown to limit the COVID-19 pandemic.

GDP is expected to decline by 5.8% (-5.1% y/y) in Q2 – the largest quarterly fall on record.

GDP declines on early COVID-19 impacts.

The calm before the storm.

A moderate outcome pre COVID-19.

A weak result ahead of the Coronavirus outbreak.

Consumer growth slows further.

Private sector stalls.

Household weakness persists.