Business Research & Insights

The NAB Residential Property Index maintained its upward momentum in Q3.

Hear NAB’s senior expert panellists discuss a range of topics to provide key insights to help you and your business prepare for the current property market climate.

One of Australia’s most successful executives gives some inside tips at NAB’s Women in Property Finance industry networking event and reveals the biggest intellectual challenge of her post-Mirvac life.

The latest major bank profit reporting/trading updates suggesting households so far by and large are managing the transition to higher interest rates.

Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24

RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely

Commercial property market sentiment and confidence moderates in Q2 amid growing economic uncertainty…

The NAB Residential Property Index bounced sharply in Q2.

Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks

The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.

Hear NAB’s senior expert panellists discuss a range of topics to provide key insights to help you and your business prepare for the current property market climate.

An exclusive webinar on Residential Property Development Market. Watch now.

Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months

The NAB Commercial Property Index improved a little further in Q1 but economic uncertainty seems to be weighing on confidence.

The NAB Residential Property Index recovered slightly, but is still well below the survey average and down sharply from the same time last year.

The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain

Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms

Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak

The NAB Commercial Property Index improved in Q4, but is still negative overall and trending well below the survey average.

Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%

The NAB Residential Property Index fell for the third straight quarter as the downturn in national housing prices deepened

CoreLogic's national Home Value Index moved through a seventh month of decline last month with values dropping -1.0%, bringing values approximately -$53,400 below April's peak.

An exclusive webinar on commercial real estate, covering the retail market and a property update. Watch now.

NAB’s Commercial Property Index shifted back into negative territory in Q3.

CoreLogic’s national home value index moved through its sixth month of decline last month, with values down a further 1.2%, taking the cumulative drop from the market peak to 6.0%.

Market sentiment: is it a good time to buy, sell, renovate & other property intentions

Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%

Hear NAB’s senior economists discuss the trends, data and patterns shaping Australia’s property sector.

COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere

National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.

50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22

The housing downturn accelerated through August, as falling values became more widespread, taking CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index into a fourth consecutive month of decline. The national index was down -1.6% over the month, which was the largest month-on-month decline since 1983.

NAB's Commercial Property Index eased to +1 pt in Q2 (+11 in Q1) amid reports market is starting to respond to higher inflation and interest rates.

NAB now expects rates to reach 2.85% by year-end.

NAB now expects rates to reach 2.35% by year-end.

National housing market sentiment fell sharply in Q2 as house prices weakened, but still positive supported by strong rents.

A NAB networking event connects women across construction and property finance to help promote female participation in the sector.

RBA rushing to neutral, rates to reach 2.10% by year-end.

In challenging market conditions Australians are choosing to use buyers agents more than ever before, we’ll take a deep dive to find out more.  

An exclusive webinar on Perth’s property market and rent roll insights for real estate agents. Watch now.

NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose to +11 pts in Q1, building on the gains seen in the last quarter when the index moved back into positive territory for the first time in 2 years.

Housing values are still rising at the national level, however, with a rise of just 0.6% over the month, April’s growth rate was the lowest reading since October 2020.

RISING BUILDING COSTS AND A TRADES SHORTFALL ISN’T DAMPENING DEMAND, AS AUSTRALIANS EMERGE FROM TWO YEARS OF LOCKDOWNS, DETERMINED TO CREATE THEIR DREAM HOME.

Strong CPI to bring forward first rate increase to May.

Housing market sentiment buoyed by growing rents as prices slow, but confidence slips as expectations for price growth scaled back.

RBA to hike rates in June, July, August and November, followed by a more gradual path through 2023 and 2024.

COVID disruptions have continued but State economies have been resilient and labour markets are strong.

NAB now sees the first rate hike coming in August; Gradual normalisation to follow through in 2023 and 2024.

This NAB Private Wealth webinar delivers insights into Cyber Security and Fraud.

Our Q4 survey saw commercial property market sentiment move into positive territory for the first time in 2 years, with the NAB Commercial Property Index at +3 pts.

Peter Loukas, Property Executive NAB presents his insights on the residential property survey.

Housing market sentiment and confidence continues to moderate as pace of monthly house price growth slows.

RBA to hike in November, QE to end in February as expected.

An apartment in the city, a home in the country and a rental place in the ‘burbs. That’s the dream. But before you pack your portfolio with property, consider these tips for the year ahead.

The return of wealthy expats and pent-up demand has fuelled record-breaking prestige sales, making for a year unlike any other.

Housing values continued to rise last month, but conditions are diversifying as stock levels rise and affordability pressures mount.

Australian housing values rose 1.5% last month, a similar result to August and September. However, the trend shows the market is continuing to slowly lose momentum since moving through a peak monthly rate of growth in March 2021, when values were up 2.8%.

The Q3 NAB Commercial Property Survey shows sentiment has declined, reflecting a fall in business confidence and conditions following the extended lockdowns in VIC and NSW.

NAB brings forward rate rise timing to mid-2023; YCC to end in November given the RBA's lack of commitment; QE to end in February.

NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call and expects economic activity to rebound strongly as restrictions are eased.

Market data shows house prices slowing, sales easing, and building approvals falling, the survey is also pointing to a market that has passed its peak.

Australian housing values rose 17.6% higher over the first nine months of the year and 20.3% higher over the past 12 months. The annual growth rate is now tracking at the fastest pace since the year ending June 1989.

Keen to invest in commercial property through your self-managed super fund? Make sure you do it wisely and well.

Despite many parts of the country remaining in some level of lockdown, the housing boom continued to roll on, with national home values rising another 1.5% last month.

While Sydney and Melbourne remain a key risk to the outlook, NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call.

Q2 NAB Commercial Property Survey shows confidence edged higher, but recovery will remain slow.

Although the pace of housing growth has slowed, values continue to rise at a rate that is well above average across most areas of the country.

Housing market sentiment lifts to a new high and dwelling prices now expected to grow around 19% in 2021 and 4% in 2022.

Re-Affirming our rate view and an update on the outlook for QE.

Housing market ended the financial year on a high note. Despite another month of strong gains, there are signs that some heat is coming out of the market

A new phase of growth emerges across the states following a fast rebound.

CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index up 2.2% in May - a stronger result compared with the 1.8% lift in April.

YCC to end at Apr-24 and QE to be tapered to $75bn.

Housing values are still rising at a rapid pace, up 6.8% over the past three months to be 10.2% higher than the COVID low in September last year.

The NAB Commercial Property Index lifted for the third straight quarter, but remained negative and well below average.

Australia is one of the most urbanised countries in the world with central business districts (CBDs) at the heart of economic, political, recreational, cultural and innovation activity. We explore the extent to which consumers have changed visitation to CBDs, why that is, and what would encourage them to return.

We look at population dynamics over the COVID period and assess their implications for the outlook for rents.

NAB has upgraded its forecasts for dwelling prices, which are now expected to rise 14% in 2021 and 6% in 2022.

The national home value index recorded a 2.8% rise, the fastest rate of appreciation since October 1988.

Real estate businesses were justifiably anxious in early 2020. A year later they have good cause to celebrate. So how did we get here and can it last?

Momentum continued to build across Australian housing markets last month, as values rise at the fastest rate in seventeen years.

While NAB’s Commercial Property Index lifted for the second straight quarter, it was still weak and well below average.

Housing values continued to rise through the first month of 2021

Despite ongoing economic challenges, the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points.

Recovery from COVID-19 continues across Australia

QE to continue, RBA to grapple with ending YCC.

Australia's housing market continued to recover, with dwelling values up 0.8% over the month.

The COVID-led economic downturn continued to weigh heavily on commercial property market sentiment in Q3.

Housing market sentiment bounced back in Q3, but still weak as VIC continues to weigh heavily.

Regional housing markets continued to outperform the capital cities in October.

APRA recently released updated details on the major banks’ home loan deferral scheme.

RBA cuts rates to 0.1% and announces $100bn worth of QE.

Consumer confidence increased, new listings rose, and six of the eight capital cities recorded a rise in home values over the month.

Yet house prices remain surprisingly resilient.

Australian home values moved through a fourth month of COVID-induced falls.

Latest restrictions will hit Victoria’s economy hard, but COVID-19 has impacted all states.

Record low interest rates, government support and loan repayment holidays for distressed borrowers have helped to insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn.

Medium term outlook buoyed by positive growth in the Industrial sector despite challenging outlook across Office & Retail asset classes.

Optimistic outlook across the Residential Property market despite varying levels of performance and recovery.

The COVID-19 led economic slowdown had a major impact on commercial market sentiment in Q2.

500k less people means a soft residential construction outlook.

The impact of COVID-19 on the economy has caused sentiment in housing markets to collapse in Q2, with confidence also falling to record lows.

Despite values being down in June, estimates of market activity showed a further improvement from the April low.

NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts Charter Keck & Cramer Chairman Scott Keck and NAB Valuations Manager Alex Dimou to discuss the Melbourne residential property landscape and share their positive outlook for the market.

Despite the loss of momentum in housing value growth, buyer numbers have shown a solid rise in May.

Market activity dropped sharply from the second half of March and through April.

Brett Moore, Customer Executive Professional Services leads a discussion with NAB experts Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, Dean Pearson, Head of Economics Research and Mark Browning, NAB's Head of Residential Valuations in sharing their view on the varying impacts COVID-19 has had on the Real Estate industry.

NAB Residential Property Index rises to survey high in Q1, but confidence shaken by Coronavirus impact on economy.

The NAB Commercial Property Index fell 8 points to a below average 0 in the March quarter.

No state or territory will be spared from COVID-19 economic fall-out.

March was the lowest monthly gain in national housing values and likely sets the tone for housing conditions over the coming months.

Housing values surged by 1.1% with 5 capital cities reaching new record-highs last month.

RBA to soon undertake yield curve control, reinforcing fiscal stimulus.

RBA to cut in March and again in April.

The NAB Commercial Property Index increased 5 points to an above average +8 in Q4.

Housing market update shows the rebound in Australian housing values has continued into 2020.

NAB Residential Property Index rises to a near 6-year high and is now positive in all states.

RBA likely to stay on hold in February – with labour market conditions buying time. But cuts are still coming.

The housing market recovery has continued to gather some pace through with our national index up 1.7% last month.

Little support from fiscal policy to see further cuts in February and June, with a move to QE in the second half of 2020 a real prospect.

Next RBA cut delayed to February 2020, with the risk of further cuts and QE by mid-2020 without fiscal stimulus.

The AFR takes an in-depth look at Australia’s infrastructure outlook.

Latest report shows a 1.2% rise in national dwelling values, delivering the fourth straight month of rising values. 

The NAB Commercial Property Index fell 4 points to +3 in Q3 2019, in line with its long-term average (+3).

NAB Residential Property Index moves back into positive territory for first time since mid-2018.

More Australians will be able to access affordable housing following a $2 billion commitment from NAB which will see more homes being built across the nation.

Housing market made further progress towards a recovery in September, recording the third consecutive month of gains.

The Australian economy grew by 1.4% over the year to the June 2019, its weakest growth since 2009.

RBA to cut in October and again in December, taking the cash rate to 0.5% by year's end.

Recovery in housing values accelerated in August.

Have dwelling values finally found a floor in July?

Overall market sentiment lifted 9 points to +7 in Q2. It rose in all states (bar SA/NT), and was highest in VIC & NSW.

Current market sentiment among property professionals still negative but lifted in Q2 post the Federal election. Future expectations also improved sharply, reflecting a stronger outlook for prices and rents.

Lower mortgage rates and improved sentiment could already having a flow-on effect for housing market conditions.

According to a new report by CSIRO, Australia will have well-connected, affordable capital and satellite cities that offer equal access to quality jobs, lifestyle amenities, education and health services if three levers are implemented.

Although dwelling values fell in May, the pace of decline continued to ease; a trend that has been evident since the beginning of 2019.

We invited Treasury representatives from four non-bank financial institutions and one UK-based asset manager – Liberty Financial, La Trobe Financial and Resimac Group in Australia and Kensington Group and TwentyFour Asset Management in the UK - to an International Round Table to discuss the opportunities and challenges in their respective mortgage and securitisation sectors.

Australian dwelling values fell half a percent last month as the pace of home value declines continued to ease.

Overall market sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) fell 11 points to -2 in Q1 2019 - its first negative read in over 4 years.

Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.

Australia recently experienced one of its largest booms on record in residential investment, driven by new construction as renovations to existing homes inexplicably languished. The Weekly analyses.

NAB’s view is that prices will decline further over the next year or so - led by further declines in Sydney and Melbourne. We also see the adjustment continuing in an orderly manner, with prices remaining well up on 5 years ago.

While the pace of falls has slowed in March, the scope of the downturn has become more geographically widespread.

The Weekly explores falling house prices – how do they compare with history and international experience?

A little innovation based on a big idea.

National dwelling values have returned to levels last seen in September 2016, and values have fallen over fourteen of the last sixteen months.

National dwelling values were down 1.0% over the month, which was the thirteenth monthly fall over the past fifteen months.

In this Weekly, we delve further into the ins and outs of the Australian housing sector.

Overall sentiment among property professionals increased marginally in the final quarter of 2018.

Australian housing market sentiment ends the year on a very weak note falling to new Survey lows, according to property professionals. Confidence levels (expectations) also drop to below average levels suggesting market momentum will probably fall further.

New research reveals how Australians are weighing up the housing market.

There’s growing awareness across industry, government and the community that we need to improve the way we design, build and operate the buildings in which we heal.

National dwelling values slipped 0.7% lower over the month, led by larger falls in Sydney and Melbourne where the pace of decline has accelerated. Nationally, dwelling values are down 4.2% since peaking in October last year, reducing back to levels last seen in December 2016.

After a year of credit spread tightening, investors are becoming more cautious and selective.

In early 2018, two entrepreneurs launched a website that aimed to address the housing affordability crisis by facilitating co-ownership. A few months later, they had an even better idea.

As 2018 draws to a close, we’d like to share some of the achievements of our Corporate and Institutional clients over the past year.

Build-to-rent could provide new avenues for investors as well as improve housing affordability, a NAB conference has been told.

Housing market cools; job ads pull back.

On a rolling quarterly basis, dwelling values are now trending lower across both the combined capital city regions, where they were 1.6% lower, as well as across the combined regional areas of Australia where values were almost 1% lower.

We open this week to news that auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne continue to run in the mid-to-low 40%s.

This week, we report on the main points of interest of UK and European investors on the Australian and NZ economies following a marketing trip there.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) fell 9 points to a 2-year low +8 in Q3, but is still well above long-term average levels (+3).

The Australian housing market continued to weaken over the month, with national dwelling values falling 0.5% in September, marking twelve months of consistently falling values across CoreLogic’s national hedonic home value index.

A strong first half and continuing near term momentum but slowing into the medium term.

The NAB Residential Property Index fell sharply for the second straight quarter in Q3 2018, down 15 to a 7-year low -9 points, and its first negative read since mid-2012.

This week, we thought we would look in brief at two important issues and how they are impacting the Australian economy and financial markets.

Financial market approaches to understanding the resilience of assets to climate change are fast evolving and ensuring customers and clients are ready to act to limit climate change is a key focus at NAB.

SEEK data for August showed that Job Ads fell again and the RLB Crane Index reported that residential high-rise surprisingly increased.

Nationwide dwelling prices have fallen 4% since their peak in November 2017. How much further will prices decline? As you’d expect there is no simple answer.

Another decent outcome.

The last month of winter saw the housing market correction deepen, with dwelling values falling across five of Australia’s eight capital cities. CoreLogic’s national index was down three tenths of a percent over the month taking the cumulative decline since values peaked in September last year to 2.2%.

Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.

Property issuance in the US Private Placement market is back in favour with investors across North America.

Caution but not panic is the mantra among top Australian property investors as they adjust to a new phase of the market cycle.

Last month we saw our national index move through the tenth straight month of falling home values.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated in Q2. The Index fell 4 points to +17 but remains well above its long-term average (+3).

In today’s Weekly we review the important speech by APRA Chair Wayne Byres last week, which covered developments in housing lending standards.

China’s M2 money supply grew less than expected on Friday.

CoreLogic’s national housing market index showed a remarkable reversal in housing market conditions over the past year.

The NAB Residential Property Index fell sharply in the June quarter 2018, down 17 points to +6 to sit at its lowest level since mid-2016 and well below its long-term average (+14).

Political risks and uncertainty may be on the rise. But a recent tour of Asia for the NAB Asian Debt Capital Markets Conference reminded NAB Global Head of Research Peter Jolly of the many causes for optimism about Australia’s economy.

When Australia’s first green residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) tranche was issued by NAB in February 2018, it was an exciting development for the sustainable debt market in its own right. The transaction also marks another step in the process of unlocking the bank’s balance sheet for sustainable lending and borrowing.

Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.

GDP Growth rebounded in Q1, supported by the household and government sectors and export growth.

The world’s first sustainability bond from a university is funding a better future for students and for vulnerable communities.

First 25bp increase now expected mid-2019.

Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.

It was a subdued end to last week for markets, oil still high in the aftermath of Trump reimposing sanctions on Iran. The housing sector is our special topic for this Weekly.

Daylight, a sense of space, a natural outlook… architecture professor Julie Willis on how Australia is taking up the ethos of beautiful hospital design.

Fitting out or refurbishing a work space? It’s a big outlay. These tips can help you spend wisely.

Overall sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) rose 4 points to +21 in Q1.

Australian dwelling values held firm in March, with the combined capitals continuing a softening trend, recording a 0.2% fall, while regional markets saw a 0.4% rise in values over the month.

The NAB Residential Property Index rose 3 points to +23 in the March quarter 2018 and remains well above its long-term average (+14).

Nationally, dwelling values recorded their fifth consecutive monthly decline in February, taking the value of housing 0.8% lower since the market peaked in September last year.

Australia recorded subdued economic growth in Q4, with the detail painting a mixed picture.

NAB economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp increase in late 2018.

Sentiment towards Australian housing market positive in Q4, but confidence wanes. NAB’s view for 2018 largely unchanged, but degree of moderation ramped up.

We’re living longer and our kids are experiencing the challenges of establishing themselves in a world of higher house-to-wage ratios. Our over-leveraged governments have responded by cutting back on spending in health, education and social services as well as super tax breaks that encourage us to save. The upshot is, we have to rely on ourselves for a comfortable long-term future.

Nationally, dwelling values were unchanged in November 2017 according to the CoreLogic home value index.

While there was plenty of concern about potential geopolitical and economic crises at the recent ASFA conference, at least one senior industry figure was upbeat.

Business and government led growth

Way out West: mining and exploring again.

CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index held steady in October, confirming a cooling trend in housing market conditions.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets moderated for the second straight quarter, with NAB’s Commercial Property Index down 5 points to +18 in Q3, but still well above long-term average levels (+2).

Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.

Australian housing market sentiment lifted over the third quarter of 2017, supported mainly by a large increase in the number of property experts reporting positive rental growth in the quarter and continued house price growth in most states.

Overall we are expecting that growth rates will continue to moderate across the combined capital cities.

Balancing multiple objectives, as business remains strong and consumers cautious.

Traditional law and accounting firms need to take a hard look at their business models and ways of pricing, or they risk getting left behind. The man who brought the term NewLaw to the world and has researched and written extensively on the subject gives five pieces of advice.

The latest housing market results showed dwelling values held firm nationally.

RBA to remove some emergency accommodation in 2018.

Under the pressure of managing day-to-day responsibilities, successful business owners don’t always realise they may also be in a position to build a property portfolio.

Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.

No imminent return to “neutral”

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster says that commercial property sentiment continues to vary widely by sector.

Australian housing market sentiment (measured by NAB’s Residential Property Index) fell noticeably in the June quarter after climbing to a 3-year high in March.

Encouraging signs emerging, but long-term headwinds keep RBA on the sideline.

Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.

Population tilting higher.

Strong focus on the implications of the beginning of normalisation of rates by the Bank of Canada.

Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.

Business versus households – how will the situation resolve itself?

Australian economy ekes out modest growth in Q1

The peak in the housing construction boom is approaching. 'Oversupply' of apartments warrants close monitoring, although various industry constraints will provide an offset.

Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.

Sentiment in commercial property markets continues to vary widely across states.

The APRA Chairman and RBA Governor both make clear that the recent moves reflect a desire to further tighten lending standards in what is considered to be an environment of heightened risks.

Australian housing market sentiment jumped to a 3-year high in the first quarter of 2017.

With house prices rising, vacancy rates declining and a previous drop in building approvals, it’s likely that residential construction activity should begin to strengthen.

Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.

Growth will remain solid across the large south-eastern states, while there are signs of stabilisation in mining states as the end of the downswing in resource-related investment approaches.

Commercial property market sentiment has continued to build on the positive gains seen in our last survey. NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose 5 points to +21 in Q4 - its highest level since the Survey began in early-2010.

NAB Economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp cut in late 2017.

Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.

By state, confidence has improved in VIC and QLD relative to the last survey, but this was offset by much weaker confidence in SA/NT and a small fall in NSW

According to the most recent surveys, business conditions and household sentiment are solid, and on an upwards trend.

Australia’s population growth remains strong by historical and international standards at around 1.4% y/y. That is 338,000 persons in the past year – nearly equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year.

Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.

In his 2007 best seller “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb uses the life of a thanksgiving turkey as an analogy for explaining a black swan occurrence i.e. a tail event that is so remote that is completely unforeseen.

NAB, in collaboration with CoreLogic, released the Spring Edition of the Housing Market Report on Monday 21 November.

Get the latest monthly update on housing market conditions around Australia.

Australian housing market sentiment improved in the third quarter of 2016, supported by more positive expectations for house price growth.

US Equities are off, the VIX is up, the US dollar is lower, US Treasury yields are lower and the Mexican Peso/Japanese Yen cross (-2.5%) is still proving to the be the FX market’s weapon of choice when it comes to reflecting sentiment regarding the prospect of Donald Trump.