August 30, 2024

Australian GDP Preview Q2 2024

Key points: NAB expects GDP growth will be +0.1% q/q in Q2 2024. This would represent another quarter of weak growth. Year ended growth would be 0.8% y/y which, outside of the 2020 COVID lockdowns, would be the weakest annual growth since the early 1990s. We expect another quarter of soft consumption growth, and further […]

Key points:

  • NAB expects GDP growth will be +0.1% q/q in Q2 2024. This would represent another quarter of weak growth. Year ended growth would be 0.8% y/y which, outside of the 2020 COVID lockdowns, would be the weakest annual growth since the early 1990s.
  • We expect another quarter of soft consumption growth, and further declines in underlying business and dwelling investment, but public demand to remain a support.
  • Such a GDP growth outcome would have few direct implications for the RBA, as it would be only marginally weaker than they had expected. It would confirm growth remains weak – implying a narrowing of the output gap – but also that inflation remains elevated and productivity growth is still a concern.
  • We expect that GDP growth will improve over the second half of 2024, in part supported by fading headwinds on household budgets and a boost from income tax cuts.

Read the full report here: Q2 2024 GDP Preview

NAB Economic Data Insights August 2024NAB Economic Data Insights August 2024

NAB Economic Data Insights August 2024

11 September 2024

Consumer spending, according to NAB’s transaction data, went up 0.5% in both retail and total spending after being broadly flat last month.

NAB Economic Data Insights August 2024NAB Economic Data Insights August 2024

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NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2024NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2024

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2024

10 September 2024

Business confidence fell 5pts to -4 index points, with significant falls in recreation & personal services, transport & utilities, construction and manufacturing.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2024NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2024

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