Key points:

• NAB expects GDP growth will be +0.1% q/q in Q2 2024. This would represent another quarter of weak growth. Year ended growth would be 0.8% y/y which, outside of the 2020 COVID lockdowns, would be the weakest annual growth since the early 1990s.
• We expect another quarter of soft consumption growth, and further declines in underlying business and dwelling investment, but public demand to remain a support.
• Such a GDP growth outcome would have few direct implications for the RBA, as it would be only marginally weaker than they had expected. It would confirm growth remains weak – implying a narrowing of the output gap – but also that inflation remains elevated and productivity growth is still a concern.
• We expect that GDP growth will improve over the second half of 2024, in part supported by fading headwinds on household budgets and a boost from income tax cuts.

Read the full report here: Q2 2024 GDP Preview