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Testing and (hints of) building capacity

Views from the US on Australia and the US

Breaking down RBA research on wages.

In understanding the drivers of the rise in AUD/USD from 0.75 in early December to above 0.81 in January, higher commodity prices have justified much of the move.

Friday was another choppy day for equity markets, although the S&P500 managed to end on a positive note.

Focus is currently on Washington where a US government shutdown deadline looms this weekend unless a stopgap funding bill is agreed.

We’ve analysed where the Aussie dollar has spent most of its time since it was floated in 1983 and the results may surprise you.

Two weeks ago, we wrote on the outlook for the AUD from our Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill highlighting the expected move of the AUD/USD into the US$0.70-0.75 cent range.

Our 2018 forecasts for Asian currencies reflect the view of reduced impact of Fed’s policy normalisation and more confidence about Asia’s external sector performance and overall growth prospects along a global economic recovery.

While significant progress has been made on liberalising the RMB and opening up the onshore bond and equity markets, there are other structural reforms that need to happen before the floodgates can be thrown open.

North Korea, China’s Communist Party Congress and Singapore’s policy rate decision are on market radar in October, along with Fed’s policy normalisation thereafter.

China is set to increase foreign ownership of Chinese debt. In the near term, we expect Chinese bond market inflows north of US$1 trillion, but in the medium term inflows of more than US$2.5 trillion would not be beyond the pale.

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