The peak in the housing construction boom is approaching. 'Oversupply' of apartments warrants close monitoring, although various industry constraints will provide an offset.
Author
James Glenn
“James is responsible for monitoring and forecasting the emerging Asian economies ...”
James joined NAB early in 2011 from the Reserve Bank of Australia where he worked for four years. He was involved in analysis of overseas economies and commodities, as well as business investment and residential property within Australia.
Before this, James taught economics at the University of Western Sydney, and was employed as an economic forecaster with Integral Energy.
He graduated from the University of Western Sydney (with first class honours in Economics) and was a recipient of the Honours Economic Society Award (HESA) in 2006. James also holds a Bachelors degree in Law.
At NAB, James is responsible for monitoring and forecasting the emerging Asian economies with a particular emphasis on China, and is also a member of the commodities team.
Recently Published Articles
Investment Insights: Modest house price growth predicted for 2016
Movements in the residential property market affect everyone - whether you’re an investor, an owner occupier, or a renter. After several years of incredibly strong house price growth, primarily in Sydney and Melbourne, there is now heated debate over where prices are likely to move.
Gold Market Update – August 2014
Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US, and some recent…
Base Metals Market Update – July 2014
On the demand side, industrial activity has improved in 2014, but recent indicators have been mixed. In China, the industrial sector appears to have stabilised following signs of moderation in recent months. Mini stimulus measures may have assisted the improvement.
Gold Market Update – May 2014
Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US.
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014
Business conditions for ASX 300 maintained momentum in the first quarter of 2014 - the broader economy weakened as it dipped back into negative territory. Confidence for larger firms surged to its highest level in the 3-year history of the survey.
Base Metals Market Update – March 2014
Prices for most industrial metals have moved lower in response to growth concerns in China and uncertainty over the unwinding of commodity financing deals. However, supply side events are supporting prices for Nickel in particular.
Gold Market Update – February 2014
The average price of gold rose by around 1½% in January and has lifted a further 4½% in February to date, the first consecutive rise since late 2012. Prices have been volatile of late, but are currently trading at around $1,330 per ounce.
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013
Business conditions for larger firms improved significantly in the December quarter – outperforming firms in the broader economy. However, confidence weakened slightly for larger firms – dropping below conditions and breaking away from the exuberance of the broader economy.
Brief China Economic Update – 11 December 2013
Our expectations that China will achieve its growth target this year remain unchanged. Domestic demand has strengthened recently, with consumer confidence improving, while exports increased strongly during November - contributing to the widest trade surplus for four years.
Base Metals Market Update – November 2013
Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have been relatively range bound, fluctuating with the ebbs and flows of economic news. As usual, news relating to US Fed policy and the Chinese economy has been particularly relevant.
China Economic Comment – November 2013
China has one of the most important labour markets in the world. This is true for a number of reasons. The most apparent is that it has the largest labour market in the world, and rapid income growth is generating a middle class in China that is expected to define the global economy
Brief China Economic Update – 11 November 2013
China remains on track to achieve its growth target for the year with domestic demand holding up in October, while exports picked up from the disappointing outcome in September. Industrial production was slightly better than expectations for the month.
China Economic Comment – October 2013
As the Chinese economy enters a transitional phase in its development, many are now questioning what this will mean for its future economic performance. The IMF recently examined a number of scenarios for how China’s recent investment driven growth model could unfold over coming years.
Brief China Economic Update – 18 October 2013
According to National Accounts data released today, the Chinese economy grew 2.2% in the September quarter to be 7.8% larger than the same period last year. The improvement in growth from last quarter was slightly above our expectation.
Brief China Economic Update – 10 September 2013
The most recent batch of partial economic indicators provide further evidence that China's economy may be stabilising, supported by improved foreign demand and a shift in policy stance. There may have also been a delayed impact from rapid credit growth earlier in the year.
China Economic Comment – September 2013
There has been a large divergence in views over the future path of China’s monetary policy/stimulus over the medium term. While the majority view expects target interest rates and reserve requirements to remain unchanged until early 2015, there are still analysts calling for cuts to rates.
Base Metals Market Update – August 2013
Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have seen some support recently from more upbeat economic data, particularly from the large advanced economies, although China is showing early signs of stabilising as well.
China Economic Update – August 2013
Partial economic indicators, although still subdued, provided some signs that the economy may be stabilising. Trade data were somewhat above expectations, including much stronger import growth pointing to improved domestic demand.
Brief China Economic Update – 9 August 2013
Partial economic indicators, although still subdued, provided some signs that the economy may now be stabilising. Trade data came in somewhat above expectations, including much stronger import growth pointing to a pick up in domestic demand.
China Economic Update – July 2013
According to recently released National Accounts data, the Chinese economy grew 1.7% in the June quarter to be 7.5% larger than the same period last year. This result is in line with our forecast for the quarter.
Brief China Economic Update – 15 July 2013
According to National Accounts data released today, the Chinese economy grew 1.7% in the June quarter to be 7.5% larger than the same period last year. This result is in line with our forecast for the quarter, a solid outcome relative to the recent spate of soft partial indicators.
Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013
Bulk commodity prices remain under pressure from mounting concerns over the China growth outlook. Nevertheless, iron ore is receiving some support from tentative restocking activity, while a margin squeeze in the coal market could suggest that prices are approaching their bottom.
Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013
Economic activity in China appears to have slowed further during the month of May, although the moderation in growth continues to occur at a gradual pace - keeping concerns of a hard-landing at bay. Nevertheless, hopes of a meaningful acceleration in growth this year have faded.
China Economic Update – May 2013
Partial economic indicators lack any strong indication that conditions are improving in China. While indicators for April came in broadly consistent with expectations, the market has revised expectations lower in response to a run of disappointing outcomes since the start of the year
Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013
Chinese partial economic indicators were largely in line with expectations in April. However, we are yet to see signs that real activity is significantly picking up. We continue to expect growth of 8% in 2013, although risks remain skewed to the downside.
Base Metals Market Update – April 2013
The improvement in metals prices seen over the second half of 2012 has been completely unwound, largely due to a lack of physical demand and market concerns over the outlook for demand. In aggregate, base metal prices were 5% lower over March and down more than 10% over the year.
China Economic Update – April 2013
National accounts for the March quarter came in well below expectations, suggesting a more subdued economic recovery than previously thought. Real GDP growth eased to 7.7% yoy, from 7.9% last quarter. Consumption made the largest contribution to growth but it is too early to say an...
Brief China Economic Update -15 April 2013
According to Chinese National Accounts released today, the Chinese economy grew 1.6% in the March quarter, which is a 7.7% increase on the same period last year. This result is softer than expected and casts some doubt over expectations for a robust recovery in the Chinese economy...
Oil Market Update – March 2013
Oil prices weaken in March, reflecting European crisis fears following Cyprus deal, a recovery in North Sea oil production and a return of South Sudan oil exports. Most notable declines were recorded for Brent and Tapis oil. Global oil demand forecasts for 2013 revised down reflecting …
Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013
The recent rally in bulk commodity prices has stalled with both coal and iron ore prices giving back some of their recent gains; average monthly prices declined in March. Global steel production has continued to grow at a good pace in recent months, driven by increasing Chinese …
Chinese Monthly Update – 22 March 2013
In this months economic update we revisit our outlook for the Chinese economy and what we can expect to see from the People’s Bank of China over the forecast horizon.
China Economic Update – March 2013
It has been an eventful month with the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) getting underway early last week, while a number of policies to curb property prices were also announced in the lead up to the gathering – triggering a sharp correction in equity markets.
China Economic Update – February 2013
As is usually the case for this time of year, the seasonal impacts from the Lunar New Year holiday are reaping havoc with China’s economic data. In addition to the obvious seasonal impacts, statistical authorities also refrain from releasing some of the more closely watched statistics …
Asian Tigers Economic Update – February 2013
After having stalled through much of last year, the process of trade integration between Australasia and East Asia regained momentum at the end of 2012 – especially exports to China. Exports from both Australia and New Zealand to the “Tiger” economies remain below their earlier levels.
China Monthly Economic Update – 29 January 2013
National accounts for the December quarter came in slightly stronger than expected, suggesting the economy has achieved a soft landing, at least for now. Real GDP growth rose to 7.9% yoy, ending seven consecutive quarters of slowing growth. Growth for the year came in at 7.8%
Brief China Economic Update – 18 January 2013
Today’s economic data releases for China came in broadly in line with expectations, providing evidence that the economic slowdown may have bottomed in the September quarter. The national accounts show that the economy expanded by 7.9% over the year to the December quarter...
Chinese Monthly Update – December 2012
China’s economic indicators for November continued the broadly improving trend seen recently, supporting our expectation of a modest recovery in GDP growth this quarter. Government investment stimulus and accommodative monetary policy will help offset headwinds from external sectors.
Chinese Monthly Update – November 2012
China’s economy showed further signs of steadying in October with most of the partial indicators recording an improvement. Year-ended growth in production, retail sales, fixed investment and exports all accelerated in the month. In contrast, bank credit came in below expectations.
China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia
China’s meteoric rise to becoming one of the world’s economic superpowers has redefined global economic growth, specifically, the fundamental drivers of commodity markets. China’s advancement has had significant ramifications for commodity exporting economies, including Australia.
Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012
Bulk commodity prices have been mixed recently with coal prices generally stabilising around recent lows, while iron ore prices have performed surprisingly well, supported by recent signs of improvement in the Chinese economy. Growth in global crude steel production remains subdued
Base Metals Market Update – October 2012
Metals prices received a significant boost over September, following a suite of policy stimulus announcements by some of the major central banks. In aggregate, base metal prices rose by 10 per cent over September but were 7 per cent lower than levels one year earlier.
Chinese Monthly Update – October 2012
China’s economic growth decelerated for the seventh consecutive quarter. However, quarter on quarter growth came in stronger than expected and revisions to previous quarters suggest the near-term growth momentum has actually improved.
Chinese Monthly Update – September 2012
NAB’s Global Economic Research provides up to date commentary on global economic developments in the USA, Asia, New Zealand. China’s partial economic indicators for the month suggest that conditions haven’t quite stabilised as expected, but neither have they deteriorated significantly. Our previous expectation that economic growth would remain unchanged from Q2 now looks unlikely. Recent […]
Chinese Monthly Update – August 2012
Partial economic indicators are starting to stabilise somewhat, but the overall trend in the data was disappointing for the month of July given our expectations for a slight improvement in economic growth over H2 2012. Industrial production softened further along with nominal retail sales, while export growth and bank loans were both well below expectations. […]
Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012
Bulk commodity prices have fallen noticeably in response to poor demand for steel and electricity, and improving supplies of the commodities. Both coal and iron ore prices have fallen to around their lowest levels since late 2009, consistent with Chinese GDP growth which slowed to its lowest rate in over three years in the June […]
Chinese Monthly Update – July 2012
The Chinese economy continues to slow, albeit at a relatively controlled pace. Real GDP growth eased to 7.6 per cent, broadly in line with expectations, but the slowest pace in more than three years. Nevertheless, partial economic indicators are providing tentative signs of stabilising, with new loans increasing, while fixed asset investment and real retail […]
Base Metals Market Update – June 2012
In aggregate, base metal prices fell by 4 per cent over May and were 19 per cent lower than levels one year earlier. Currently, prices for most base metals are below their May averages. Metals prices have been volatile as a result of events in Europe and growth concerns in China and the US. Relief […]
Chinese Monthly Update – June 2012
The PBoC cut benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25bp this month in response to a clear moderation in inflation and soft demand conditions. Domestic demand may receive support from recent stimulus measures, but global uncertainty (particularly in Europe) will continue to pose headwinds. The partial economic indicators for May continued to be relatively soft, […]
Chinese Monthly Update – May 2012
Partial indicators for April were disappointing across the board relative to optimistic market expectations, but we remain happy with our longheld views for China’s growth outlook. Slowing activity has been driven by both an easing in domestic demand, and weak external demand – global economic uncertainty, particularly in Europe, is likely to provide an ongoing […]
Chinese Monthly Update – April 2012
The Chinese economy decelerated further at the start of 2012, with real GDP growth at its slowest pace in around three years (rising 8.1 per cent over the year to the March quarter – NAB forecast was for 8.2 per cent). By component, consumption made the largest contribution to growth over the year, while investment […]
Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2012
Growth slowed considerably in the Asian Tiger economies late last year and remains relatively sluggish in 2012. However, some partial indicators suggest that conditions have improved modestly more recently, bolstered by improvements in the US economy, and an apparent v-shape recovery in Thailand from last years floods. However, demand for exports from advanced economies is […]