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The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

22 September 2023

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

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Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023

Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023

4 September 2023

NAB sees a +0.5% q/q (1.9% y/y) GDP print for Q2 2023 which will confirm the slowing in domestic demand we have seen across other indicators. Both ABS retail sales data and our own transactions data points to a flat outcome for consumption following 0.2% growth in Q1.

Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

17 August 2023

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

20 July 2023

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

22 June 2023

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

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NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

13 June 2023

The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

18 May 2023

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

Insight

Australian housing market update: May 2023

Australian housing market update: May 2023

11 May 2023

It’s looking increasingly likely that Australian housing values have bottomed out, with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index having posted a second consecutive monthly rise. April’s half a percent increase, follows a 0.6% lift in March, leaving the Home Value Index 1.0% higher over the past three months.

Australian housing market update: May 2023

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

20 April 2023

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

Insight

Australian housing market update: April 2023

Australian housing market update: April 2023

13 April 2023

After a six-month period where the downwards trend in housing values consistently lost steam, CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index posted the first month-on-month rise since April 2022, up 0.6% in March. Dwelling values were higher across the four largest capital cities and most of the broad ‘rest-of-state’ regions, led by a 1.4% gain in Sydney.

Australian housing market update: April 2023

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

23 February 2023

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

Insight

Australian housing market update: February 2023

Australian housing market update: February 2023

8 February 2023

The housing market started the year where it left off in 2022, chalking up the ninth consecutive monthly drop in Australian home values. The national Home Value Index was down -1% over the first month of the year following a larger -1.1% fall in December.

Australian housing market update: February 2023

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

16 December 2022

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

14 December 2022

Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

Insight

How pre-approved NAB Equipment Finance helped EMM Group power ahead

How pre-approved NAB Equipment Finance helped EMM Group power ahead

2 December 2022

Convenient access to equipment finance through NAB helped bulk material supplier and transport company EMM Group jump at an opportunity.  In equipment-intensive businesses, having fast and convenient access to finance provides flexibility that can improve business results. It’s a fact that Andrew Halloran, owner of EMM Group, which supplies quarry, soil, garden and construction materials, […]

How pre-approved NAB Equipment Finance helped EMM Group power ahead
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

11 November 2022

We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

9 November 2022

Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

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Australian housing market update: November 2022

Australian housing market update: November 2022

9 November 2022

CoreLogic’s national home value index moved through its sixth month of decline last month, with values down a further 1.2%, taking the cumulative drop from the market peak to 6.0%.

Australian housing market update: November 2022

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

14 October 2022

Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

Insight

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

12 October 2022

National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

Insight

Australian housing market update: October 2022

Australian housing market update: October 2022

12 October 2022

CoreLogic reported a further fall in housing values through the first month of spring, with our national Home Value Index recording a -1.4% decline. Although values are still falling quite rapidly, the rate of decline eased from a -1.6% fall in August.

Australian housing market update: October 2022

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

16 September 2022

We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

10 September 2022

Australian agricultural commodity prices have continued to unwind, posting a second month of lower prices as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index. This comes against a backdrop of continued excellent seasonal conditions, but elevated input costs and rapidly rising interest rates to control global inflation.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

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Australian housing market update: September 2022

Australian housing market update: September 2022

9 September 2022

The housing downturn accelerated through August, as falling values became more widespread, taking CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index into a fourth consecutive month of decline. The national index was down -1.6% over the month, which was the largest month-on-month decline since 1983.

Australian housing market update: September 2022

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NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

12 August 2022

We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2022

21 July 2022

The last month has brought big changes for Australian agriculture, with global growth concerns hitting many commodity prices, but seasonal conditions still mostly supportive and further signs that input costs are stabilising.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2022

Insight