October 11, 2023
NAB Australian Housing Market Update: October 2023
CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index recorded a 0.8% rise in September as the recovery trend moved through an eighth consecutive month of growth.
The rise takes the quarterly pace of growth to 2.2%, easing from a 3.0% gain in the June quarter. This slowdown in growth has occurred as advertised stock levels rise, helping to take some heat out of the market.
The September quarter saw Adelaide recording the highest capital gain at 4.3%, followed by Brisbane at 3.9% and Perth at 3.6%. At the other end of the growth spectrum is Hobart where values were down 0.2% over the quarter, taking the southern capital to a new cyclical low.
The performance of the housing market in each city reflects the underlying supply dynamic. The three capitals recording the highest capital gain each have advertised supply levels that are around 40% below their previous five-year average. Advertised supply levels across Hobart, where values are still trending lower, have been holding at above average levels since June last year and were 41% above the five-year average.
Since finding a trough in January, the national index has recovered by 6.6%, and home values remain 1.3% below record highs recorded in April last year. At the current rate of growth, we are likely to see the national HVI recover to a new nominal high by the end of November.
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