This month’s key stats deliver a few surprises. Top of the list is a sharp 57.6 per cent drop in Australian exports to the US following the imposition of new Trump-era tariffs. This suggests that businesses are rapidly adjusting to shifts in the global news cycle – finding new opportunities where they can.

Yet for all that, many medium-sized businesses we meet seem to be taking the latest wave of global uncertainty in their stride.

It may be that we’re all getting used to the ongoing volatility. Certainly financial markets appear to be adjusting to the new US administration’s way of doing things and prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine as well as ongoing hostilities across parts of the Middle East have, to some extent, inured many to ongoing international conflict.

But getting used to constant change shouldn’t equate to sitting still. Quite the reverse. As the saying goes, if you’re not moving forward, you’re moving backwards. Now, more than ever, businesses need to keep that in mind – always adapting, but on their terms.

Preparing for what comes next

In fact, I see many businesses find that balance – proactively managing their risk while also embracing new opportunities. We saw our Markets transaction volume increase 65% year on year in June as we worked with more customers to implement strategies to manage risk in light of the dynamic international environment.

It might be that they’re locking in interest rates or hedging their FX exposure, or simply making their supply chains more resilient. But it’s also that they’re proving themselves ready to act when the moment presents itself.

Sometimes that involves investing in new ideas. Certainly that’s the case for clothing brand Paire – a Melbourne-based business and NAB customer that has made its name creating versatile essentials to wear over and over again.

Since launching what they called ‘the world’s first stink-free sock’ in 2020, founders Nathan Yun and Rex Zhang have gone from working out of Rex’s garage to selling their clothing to the world – expanding their offering to over 60 products relying on seven trademarked materials. They’ve also generated $22 million in revenue.

Yun and Zhang’s aim is to continue to grow their business having recently branched into activewear. Yet, at the same time, they are working hard to minimise any risks along the way. With exposure to international markets, that includes partnering with NAB’s Markets team to manage their foreign exchange exposure.

The power of a plan

There’s no doubt it makes good sense to review your FX and interest rate risk – especially if you want to avoid being vulnerable to sharp market movements.

However, you can’t do this in isolation. Ensuring your business is prepared for whatever comes your way starts with being informed and having a clear plan. It’s about looking ahead and learning. Being curious. Understanding your cash flow is essential here, but you also need to know your suppliers – to explore new ways of working, new ways of producing and delivering what you do.

It also helps to look back – to understand what’s come before. A mentor who has weathered several economic cycles can offer valuable perspective, helping you navigate what’s ahead with greater insight and confidence. They don’t have to be a competitor. If you are in an industrial park, it may be that you have a barbecue on a Friday afternoon where you all come together to talk.

Flexing with the times

But none of this matters if you’re not agile – able to pivot, not just once, but as many times as the situation requires.

It’s no longer simply about standing still, or even about staying the course. It’s a case of: there’s probably five different courses that you need to take at the same time, just to make sure one is successful.

 Bringing in the right support

A little overwhelmed?

It’s understandable. But, again, remember you’re not alone. There are many people out there you can turn to for insights and support.

That includes your bank. Whether you’re looking to manage risk or unlock your next opportunity, a specialist can help you make more informed decisions – from foreign exchange and interest rate strategies to financing that next big move.

The tariff effect

Australian exports to the US saw a significant drop of 57.6% in April 2025.

Business as usual with China

In contrast, shipments to Australia’s top trading partner, China, edged up by 0.5%, suggesting a more stable demand from this key market.

All eyes on the cash rate

More rate cuts are expected through 2025, taking the cash rate to approx. 3.10% by the end of the year, at which point it is expected to bottom out.

Good news travels fast

The most recent rate cut had an almost instantaneous effect on the leisure business indicating consumers are looking to act on good news.  Global operator Accor enjoyed a 14.8 per cent lift in bookings for Australian network of hotels in the week following the Reserve’s 25 basis point cut.

Planning through uncertainty

Last month saw a 65% year-on-year increase in NAB Markets transaction volumes, driven by strategic support that helped business customers unlock working capital and manage risk amid a shifting global landscape.