Cattle prices were the main driver of the increase in the month, and are now around 60% higher than their October lows. Prices rose on the back of above-average rainfall, which increased producer sentiment, an increase in demand going into the holiday season, and robust export demand. Prices also increased similarly for lamb, though increases in pork prices were more subdued. Prices for winter crops fell, weighed on by high global supply and weak demand.

Seasonal conditions were favourable in January, which was the ninth-wettest January on record. Seasonal conditions are expected to be mixed next month, with rainfall likely to be below median for the eastern and northern coasts. The Rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier March. The BoM models indicate that El Nino is ongoing but past its peak, and sea surface temperatures are expected to return to a neutral ENSO level in autumn 2024. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has ended, and returned to neutral.

Read the full report here NAB Rural Commodities Wrap February 2024