Growth subdued but will improve in late 2024
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Growth subdued but will improve in late 2024
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RBA on hold with inflation & labour market easing
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Our Forward View this month covers both the Australian and Global economies.
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NAB now expects an unchanged cash rate until late 2024
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Slow growth to persist in Q4 and into 2024
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Industry participants are exploring a range of different approaches to support Australia’s infrastructure needs as the economy faces into a higher inflationary environment.
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Australia needs a vast amount of capital to build out the utility-scale wind and solar projects to power a net-zero future by 2050. NAB’s Executive, Specialised Finance, Andrew Smith and Executive, Capital Markets, Sarah Samson explore potential debt funding options in market.
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Growth outlook upgraded but 4.6% rate peak ahead
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NAB expects follow up hike in February 2024
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Growth to remain subdued, but avoid a major downturn
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Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience
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Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left
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RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely
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A slow second half, but persistent inflation
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A series of NAB-led deals involving major telcos and private capital from infrastructure investors points the way to effectively monetising undervalued assets for growth.
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4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather
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Jamie Bonic, Head of FX Investor Sales APAC, and Ray Attrill, Head of FX Research, joined ASFA to discuss the launch of NAB’s Super FX hedging survey.
Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks
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Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response
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Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months
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Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge
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The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain
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Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak
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Just how resilient is the Australian economy in 2023? From consumer confidence to business spending, hear directly from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster and Metro & Specialised Banking Exec Julie Rynski. Watch now.
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Australia passing through a possible turning point
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Rising rates to see slower growth ahead
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Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%
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Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3
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Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.
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Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%
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Near term resilience but a slowing ahead
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50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22
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Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.
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We'll help you find the right foreign exchange risk management strategy by understanding your core business and the challenges you face every day.
Rebound set to fade as consumption slows in H2 2022
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NAB now expects rates to reach 2.85% by year-end.
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Interest rates & inflation to weigh on the consumer.
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NAB now expects rates to reach 2.35% by year-end.
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Higher inflation, higher rates & slower growth ahead.
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RBA rushing to neutral, rates to reach 2.10% by year-end.
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Rates to rise further as strong growth continues
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Strong CPI to bring forward first rate increase to May.
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Rate rises set for June as strong growth continues.
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RBA to hike rates in June, July, August and November, followed by a more gradual path through 2023 and 2024.
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Unemployment to fall below 4%; inflation risks build.
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NAB now sees the first rate hike coming in August; Gradual normalisation to follow through in 2023 and 2024.
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Strong rebound slowed by Omicron as inflation builds.
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RBA to hike in November, QE to end in February as expected.
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Activity snaps back in Q4, pre-Delta GDP within reach
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Rates lift-off brought forward as rebound begins.
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NAB brings forward rate rise timing to mid-2023; YCC to end in November given the RBA's lack of commitment; QE to end in February.
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NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call and expects economic activity to rebound strongly as restrictions are eased.
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Waiting for the rebound after Q3 lockdowns.
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The NAB Corporate Cash Index draws on our own Corporate and Institutional Banking client insight analytics to reveal cash management trends.
A near term hit to GDP before the recovery continues.
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While Sydney and Melbourne remain a key risk to the outlook, NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call.
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A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market – in Australia and abroad.
GDP to fall but recovery will resume as lockdowns end.
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Lockdown disruptions but expect recovery to continue.
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Re-Affirming our rate view and an update on the outlook for QE.
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Immediate access to cash for Australian businesses through a PayPal and NAB collaboration.
A healthy outlook for the economy beyond the rebound.
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YCC to end at Apr-24 and QE to be tapered to $75bn.
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Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements
The NAB Corporate Cash Index draws on our own Corporate and Institutional Banking client insight analytics to reveal cash management trends.
A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market - in Australia and abroad.
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements. This week's podcast includes a focus on inflation and FX implications .
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Our Head of FX Investor Sales APAC and Head of FX Research joins ASFA CEO to discuss the 2021 survey.
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
What's the economic and financial markets landscape 12 Months on from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic?
Healthy momentum leading into the JobKeeper wind-up.
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NAB recently hosted the inaugural Capital Markets 2021 Virtual Conference for issuers and investors.
A new podcast that looks at what strategies clients used to manage the recent foreign exchange market volatility.
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
The Australian corporate bond market faces a range of opportunities and challenges over the coming year, a recent NAB Capital Markets Forum heard.
GDP fully recovered by Q1, but spare capacity remains.
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A podcast that explores how Australian importers managed their foreign exchange strategies during and post the global pandemic.
Superannuation funds will need to be nimble to take advantage of new investment opportunities, the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia conference heard.
A new podcast that looks at what strategies agribusiness clients used to manage recent foreign exchange market volatility.
A new weekly podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
GDP growth and the labour market continue to surprise.
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QE to continue, RBA to grapple with ending YCC.
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Companies that need to adapt and transition to lower carbon and more sustainable growth are tapping into a range of new sustainability-linked debt offerings to help finance this transition.
The banking sector has an important role to play in supporting industry through the economic recovery.
Stronger near-term recovery in activity and a lower peak in unemployment.
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2020 has presented some unique challenges for corporate treasurers. Looking ahead, now is the time for many to review liquidity management strategies to ensure they are well placed as we adjust to a new post COVID-19 normal.
Thousands of businesses around Australia are re-assessing their supply chains, inventories and financing options to deal with future shocks in the wake of disruptions caused by the pandemic.
Stronger activity and a smaller hit to unemployment in the near term.
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After two steps forward, European lockdowns are a step back for the recovery.
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NAB Forecasts fundamentally unchanged – but large uncertainties remain.
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RBA cuts rates to 0.1% and announces $100bn worth of QE.
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A rethink of corporate strategies sees a renewed appreciation of the importance of resilience in the supply chain
Leveraging real-time pre-transaction risk controls to unlock card based procurement efficiencies.
Economic rebound in Q3, but signs that growth momentum is slowing.
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VIC virus & reduced Government support means flat H2 2020. Larger falls through 2020 mean better 2021. But recovery still tough & long.
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We outline three recent accelerating trends in the Australian payments space.
Focussing on the 3 Golden Rules of counterparty risk management will help your business navigate these uncertain times.
Global recovery continues but it is uneven and still a long way back to ‘normal’.
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VIC virus shutdown makes the outlook significantly worse with no quick bounce back, with unemployment and poor confidence big issues.
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An Australasian perspective on sustainable finance markets.
A temporary easing in rules around equity capital raisings has helped a surge in activity and this is expected to continue as companies shore up their balance sheets.
The pandemic has highlighted the importance of supply chain resilience for many Australian businesses.
Global recovery continues but virus outbreaks a major risk.
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Extent of the fall in Q2 GDP revised sharply down – as is 2020. But pain still large and long lasting. With new virus uncertainties.
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A monthly look at the ESG debt markets from an Australasian perspective.
Long climb back to ‘normal’ levels of global activity has started.
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A small fall in GDP in Q1 expected to be followed by a very large fall in Q2 – followed by an extended period of recovery.
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Our latest transaction insights paper looks at the journey of the New Payments Platform (NPP), Australia’s domestic payment clearing and settlement infrastructure launched two years ago.
A look at the Australasian ESG debt markets during the last month.
The longest period of bond market disruption since the GFC appears to be ending.
A massive contraction in global activity has occurred due to COVID-19.
Our forecasts are broadly unchanged – we still expect a fall of 8.5% in GDP in H1 2020 before a rebound in growth in Q4.
A monthly look at the Australasian ESG debt markets.
COVID-19 has placed significant pressure on corporates and implicated their operations. Efficient cash management and adequate liquidity is one of the key principles to ensure survival.
Global economy in its worst post-WW2 recession, recovery timing uncertain.
Unprecedented sharp recession coming as a result of COVID-19. Sharp deterioration in employment and prolonged high unemployment.
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Large sections of the Australian economy are now working from home or in remote locations. Corporate Australia has had to quickly shift operational processes and adjust to new work from home arrangements, many for the first time.
The implementation of social distancing has meant some businesses are reviewing their customer interactions at the point of payment.
With public debt markets in flux due to the spread of COVID-19, patience is the watchword for Australian borrowers in private capital markets.
Our latest transaction insights paper includes recommendations for managing credit card rejections and provides clarity on the credit card authorisation process.
All businesses need to be aware of how criminals may use the current crisis to target businesses.
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Fraud threats to organisations are becoming increasingly sophisticated and targeted.
Fiscal stimulus to support near-term growth, with more likely to come in the May Federal Budget.
World growth to be hit hard in H1 2020 – at least – due to Coronavirus.
Soft Economy likely to be hard hit by COVID-19. Outlook heavily dependent on severity and how long disruption effects of the virus last.
RBA to soon undertake yield curve control, reinforcing fiscal stimulus.
RBA to cut in March and again in April.
Coronavirus to deliver a shock to global growth.
We have adjusted down 2020 GDP by 0.5% due to bushfires & Coronavirus impacts, but boosted for 2021. RBA forecasts a big stretch.
RBA likely to stay on hold in February – with labour market conditions buying time. But cuts are still coming.
A financial system that has taken centuries to evolve will change dramatically in the next few years.
Investors are directing capital towards the projects and companies that will remain viable in the transition to a low-carbon economy, a major international conference was told.
In a rapidly evolving technology landscape, corporate finance teams have a range of options to improve efficiency, productivity and security with bank communication.
Private demand still “running on empty”. Broadly unchanged forecasts but concerns to the downside. Fiscal policy help unlikely.
Little support from fiscal policy to see further cuts in February and June, with a move to QE in the second half of 2020 a real prospect.
Janari Tonoike, head of NAB Japan Securities Limited, National Australia Bank’s (NAB) new Tokyo-based, wholly-owned subsidiary, showcases the long-standing relationship between Japan and Australia, and explains how the new entity can help investors and borrowers in both markets and beyond connect better in a challenging global business environment.
In October 2019, National Australia Bank hosted a Round Table with emerging lenders to share their experiences on the journey to bank securitisation funding and beyond.
Next RBA cut delayed to February 2020, with the risk of further cuts and QE by mid-2020 without fiscal stimulus.
Private demand still stalled. Broadly unchanged forecasts but slightly lower growth in the near term. Policy help delayed.
Unchanged forecasts with low rates expected to persist.
With the help of some big thinking and timely funding, Port of Melbourne has gone from strength to strength as they meet the needs of a growing Australian economy.
Global renewable energy owner, operator and developer, Pacific Hydro partnered with NAB to realise its renewable energy vision.
RBA to cut in October and again in December, taking the cash rate to 0.5% by year's end.
Companies sometimes seek changes to covenants during the life of a 10 to 15-year note. In this article, we examine the issues that can prompt such a request.
Global growth slows further as trade disputes escalate…again.
Below-trend growth and low inflation still expected as downside risks build. We have inserted another rate cut(s) in early 2020.
A landmark PPP refinance meets the needs of investors for a low-risk investment as well as the needs of borrowers for longer-dated debt.
Below-trend growth and low inflation – another rate cut ahead.
Forecasts unchanged – including key drivers of growth. Rate cuts to help but mainly in 2020. Fiscal stimulus impact small.
Panelists at NAB's annual DCM conference discussed the ideal confluence of demand and supply in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, which is home to some of the worlds fastest growing economies.
June was another month of two halves for the AUD/USD.
Investing in infrastructure is a long-term trend that will continue to endure global economic challenges, generating healthy returns and diversification opportunities as investors enhance focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
The rising global stature of Asian investors and their search for fresh avenues to deploy their expanding wealth is aiding the growth of new markets.
Weakness in private demand to continue. Policy stimulus needed – fiscal, structural and monetary.
We invited Treasury representatives from four non-bank financial institutions and one UK-based asset manager – Liberty Financial, La Trobe Financial and Resimac Group in Australia and Kensington Group and TwentyFour Asset Management in the UK - to an International Round Table to discuss the opportunities and challenges in their respective mortgage and securitisation sectors.
Q1 GDP – headline growth overstates strength, but still a good result.
Sustainable bonds are appealing to a wider set of investors as the market develops, a recent conference was told.
A little innovation based on a big idea.
US private placements to stay a step ahead of the funding options pack for Australian corporate borrowers
Australia’s energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation which includes the increased penetration of renewable energy technologies.
As electricity prices continue to rise and domestic gas supply across eastern Australia tightens, Cooper Energy is one company that’s thinking big so it can be a significant part of the solution.
Turning 40: Charting the rise of China since reform and opening up
Macquarie saw demand for long tenors and appetite for socially responsible investments.
Conditions are expected to remain strong for corporate and institutional level borrowers in Australia in 2019.
After a year of credit spread tightening, investors are becoming more cautious and selective.
Private markets can offer consistent and steady support for issuers, the First Look Conference in Sydney was told.
Australia’s superannuation funds are turning to venture capital for the outsized returns the sector can generate and to diversify their portfolios, the 2018 ASFA Conference heard.
As 2018 draws to a close, we’d like to share some of the achievements of our Corporate and Institutional clients over the past year.
Alternatives are emerging to give Australia’s fledgling fintech firms easier access to funding.
In a Victorian first, Sacred Heart Mission and the Victorian Government recently launched the state’s first Social Impact Investment, an innovative financing structure that supports positive social change.
With expansion on the horizon, FRANKiE4’s Financial Controller, Jonathan Cole, is focused on the right markets and the right financial facilities to make the leap into Europe and the US.
Globally, the finance sector is directing ever-greater amounts of capital to address social and environmental challenges. Australia has more work to do on this front.
When Australia’s first green residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) tranche was issued by NAB in February 2018, it was an exciting development for the sustainable debt market in its own right. The transaction also marks another step in the process of unlocking the bank’s balance sheet for sustainable lending and borrowing.
Major Australian organisations are now directly investing in large-scale renewable energy projects through the new NAB Low Carbon Shared Portfolio, the first of its kind in Australia.
The world’s first sustainability bond from a university is funding a better future for students and for vulnerable communities.
Part-privatisation was the catalyst for an epic US private placement deal for Australian utility Ausgrid.
Breaking into the Australian renewable energy market with a new mode of financing was a great challenge and a golden opportunity for Goldwind. Three deals later, the company’s aiming to power one million Australian homes.
The launch of the green-loan principles (GLPs) presents an opportunity for another evolutionary step in sustainable funding. By standardising and codifying what qualifies as green bank lending, the GLPs could make sustainable finance relevant to a wider cohort of borrowers according to David Jenkins, director, sustainable capital markets at NAB.
First 25bp increase now expected mid-2019.
Will the US dollar rally continue this week?
The S&P500 fell a lot in early trade, testing some technical levels before regaining most of the ground. The US dollar has also retreated.
Words from the Fed have had little impact on the markets, across all sectors, except oil and gold, which rose on the news that not much has changed.
Suggestions the move reflects the US economy gaining momentum, whilst other economies are failing to keep pace.
Tapas Strickland suggests the markets are getting used to the US President’s style and that could ease concerns over future Trumpisms.
Why such little reaction to Friday’s historic peace promise? NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests why it failed to move the markets, and looks to this week’s major influences.
The Euro and European bond yields took a blow today as the European Central Bank failed to commit to a timetable for the ending of quantitative easing.
US 10-year treasury yields have moved passed 3 percent, boosting the US dollar and sending the Aussie dollar careering downwards.
US 10 year Treasury yields are very close to 3 percent this morning. As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie its resulted in rising bond yields elsewhere, including Europe and Australia.
FX Hedging Trends
If Steven Mnuchin reaches a trade pact with China, will it create enough confidence to push the Aussie dollar out of its trading range?
Inflation. Watch out, it’s coming.
Rising commodity prices, stalling inflation, a flattening curve and cautious Canadians
In a busy #MorningCall podcast @NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks to Phil Dobbie about US earnings, trade concessions, IMF forecasts, UK wages, Chinese retail, the RBA minutes, Bank of Canada, and more!
Can China maintain its stable growth profile as trade tensions increase?
It’s company earnings and global politics driving markets today. @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil Dobbie to talk about President Trump, Shinzo Abe, Theresa May, Michael Cohen and the next Deputy Governor of the US Federal Reserve.
Testing and (hints of) building capacity
Will the Syria missile strikes hit the markets today. @NAB’s Ray Attrill says not on today’s edition of #TheMorningCall podcast
Another day, another direction for US equities. Today they’re back up (for now) on easing tensions over Syria (for now). Join @NAB’s Gavin Friend and Phil Dobbie on #TheMorningCall.
President Trump’s missile warning spooks US equity markets for a while, but @NAB’s David de Garis said it was only a mild risk-off mood.
US equities and commodity currencies boosted by President Xi’s calming talk overnight – but @NAB’s Ray Attrill warns we can continue to expect periodic risk off sentiment.
US shares back up as trade war fears ease again, even though China threatens currency devaluation as a tool against tariffs. @NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil Dobbie on today’s Morning Call podcast.
Views from the US on Australia and the US
On #TheMorningCall today @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on the impact of trade war rhetoric and the fallout from Syria. Plus softer payrolls from the US on Friday.
March was a month of two halves for the AUD/USD.
On #TheMorningCall from @NAB, the US dollar recovers a little and stocks rise as investors hope tariff talk is more rhetoric than action. Plus, payroll figures tonight.
Equity markets fall then bounce on China tariffs, then talks of trade talks. Get up to speed on the #tradewar latest on #TheMorningCall from @NAB.
The FAANGs bite back – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Tapas Strickland about a slight market bounce, plus rising funding costs for the US government.
Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis if this is the end, or the start of it?
Ports and airports, toll roads and tunnels. These are just some examples of infrastructure sold into the US Private Placement (USPP) market over the last several years.
Technology out of favour, markets a little confused.
Early in the session it looked like share trading in the US was going to build on the upward momentum of yesterday, but then a sudden shift in sentiment.
Breaking down RBA research on wages.
Equity markets bounce back. The trade war was yesterday’s news. On #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the sharp turn around in risk sentiment.
Markets took a hit on Friday - what caused it and will it continue today? Phil Dobbie asks NAB's Ray Attrill if its trade wars, spending, staff changes or old fashioned over-valuation?
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril and asks, is this the start of a trade war good and proper?
It will be no surprise that the Fed has lifted interest rates this morning. Perhaps the tone was more hawkish than expected in Jay Powell’s first meeting as Fed chair.
The share markets rebounded today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s a positive sign that the reaction was contagion from tech stocks rather than anything more lasting.
NAB’s general manager, capital markets and advisory, Jacqui Fox, and head of debt syndicate, Mark Abrahams, highlight the key themes for Australian credit in 2018 and why they point to a positive fundamental story despite the resurgence in equity market volatility early this year.
The UK and the EU have seemingly reached a transition deal that changes very little till the end of December 2020, when Britain goes it alone.
Alternative measures of labour market tightness.
USD slightly extends Thursday’s gains, AUD makes new YTD low of 0.7710, -1.1% on the day.
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the market reaction to this, and to Theresa May’s announcement that 23 Russian diplomats will be sent packing in response to the Salisbury nerve agent attack.
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Cattril about the market impact of a President following a “my way or the highway” agenda.
AUD/EUR continues to approach its two-year lows.
NAB’s positive view of GBP and forecast decline in AUD/GBP is in the immediate term.
In February the AUD/USD gave back all of its January gains and some more. February was a month characterised by an increase in market volatility, particularly in equities amid US inflationary concerns alongside a rise in US bond yields and their implicit valuation concerns for physical and risk assets.
The markets are waiting for today’s CPI figures from the US.
On #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we could be a favoured state that avoids steel tariffs.
Who keeps some balance on trade now Cohn has quit? Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the volatility around President Trump’s growing tariff talk
Trade wars and trade imbalances: early thoughts
Equity markets are back in the black this morning with Treasury yields modestly higher amid further focus on Trump tariffs, with an attempted push back from two key GoP members, but an undaunted Trump.
The markets continued to react to President Trump’s stance on steel tariffs, with his resolve seemingly increasing over the weekend.
Lots of numbers out overnight but it’s politics driving the markets right now, with President Trump saying he will sign the order next week to impose tariffs on steel imports.
A Brexit breakdown pummels the pound – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we can expect the pound to fall further as the UK & EU draw lines in the sand.
NAB economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp increase in late 2018.
How fast is WA recovering?
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market reaction, which includes falling equities and rising bond yields.
The markets didn’t react positively to the UK opposition leader’s Brexit speech – infact, they hardly reacted at all. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland in London about the latest chapter in the saga.
Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what impact the news could have on the markets this week, after a rally on equities at the end of last week.
AUD back up to 0.7840/45.
Today’s Podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether they could lift bond yields, particularly given low interest in this week’s big auctions from the Treasury. Gavin also explains why the UK’s jobless figures are not as bad as they seem, how Brexit talks are reaching the pointy end, and what will be the consequences […]
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about what he was trying to say. Plus, the response to US Treasury auctions, what to expect from the Fed minutes, the latest expectation on Aussie rate rises and what’s the story with oil?
Wages key to inflation and monetary policy.
The US Treasury plans to issue $151 billion in bonds today, $258 billion across the week.
Fresh from the annual Private Placement Industry Forum in Miami, we consider the options for investors looking to add a rock-solid asset to their portfolio.
US stocks retreat on Russia meddling, steel/aluminium tariff reports, but still make it ‘6 from 6’ up days.
Listed Investment Companies evolve and thrive in 2017.
USD is set to close lower for a 4th consecutive day and US equities look set to climb for a fifth day in a row
There was a sharp reaction to higher than expected CPI figures overnight but they have been tempered by weaker than expected retail figures.
The US dollar is on the slide again. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill the volatility remains ahead of US CPI figures tonight.
Stocks, bonds & Australia – still optimistic growth!
US equities extend Friday’s rally and Europe joins the party.
In understanding the drivers of the rise in AUD/USD from 0.75 in early December to above 0.81 in January, higher commodity prices have justified much of the move.
Friday was another choppy day for equity markets, although the S&P500 managed to end on a positive note.
Stocks fell across Europe and the US overnight.
Well it might be too early to call the recent rout in equity markets over, but price action over the past 24hrs suggests calmness has returned with European equities rebounding while US equities are relatively steady.
To some, The Beatles’ Helter Skelter planted the inspirational seeds for heavy metal.
Global air traffic and demand for aircraft stays strong in 2017.
It’s been another night for selling stocks, Europe taking up where the US and Asia left off (the Eurostoxx 600 was down 1.56%) and this set the tone for the US market.
RBA growth and inflation outlook still on course.
The jump in US annual average hourly earnings in January, to 2.9% from an upwards revised 2.7% in December, stole the limelight on Friday albeit there were a number of extenuating circumstances suggesting the number shouldn’t be taken completely at face value.
The AUD/USD started 2018 in the same manner it ended 2017. The currency strengthened in January, trading in a 3.4 cents range during the month and ending at 0.8055.
The USD has resumes its downtrend with Euro strength the main culprit and with USD indices trading sub key support levels the big question is how long will the Dollar fall, if only Bob Dylan new the answer.
Yesterday’s State of the Union address from the President came and went without any great fanfare as far as market impact was concern.
As the cost of healthcare continues to rise, state and federal government budgets are facing a growing challenge of balancing the competing needs of health-care expenditure with other areas of spending such as schools and roads.
US stocks are weaker for a second day running, the S&P down a little 1% heading into the close, and the VIX is up to 15 from 11 at the end of last week.
UST yields have led the sell-off in core global bond yields and for a change the USD has responded to the UST led rise in yields and outperforms across the board.
The transformation to a low-carbon economy is gathering pace.
What does Canada tell us about the RBA?
The dollar remains the hot topic, just as the weather has been in SE Australia with a slice of this summer’s heatwave coming through with a vengeance, not to mention Roger Federer’s fifth and winning set to reach 20 Grand Slam wins at the Australian Open.
Speaking from Davos early in the London session, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set the tone for the session saying “obviously a weaker USD is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.”
The US Debt Capital Markets provided options for issuers.
Big dollar subsides again overnight after attempted rally yesterday.
A full Senate vote to ratify the deal struck a few hours ago to re-open the US government is scheduled for 4:30pm Washington time (8:30am AEDT).
Employment good news to start 2018.
China’s official data may underestimate the strength of growth in 2017.
The US Senate on Friday failed to muster the 60 votes necessary to pass a stop-gap funding measure that would have averted the partial government shutdown that instead went into effect at one minute past midnight on Friday.
NAB’s Securitisation team goes from strength to strength, being the clear house of choice for customers and thought leader in the market.
2017 has been the best year for both issuers and investors since 2006.
Focus is currently on Washington where a US government shutdown deadline looms this weekend unless a stopgap funding bill is agreed.
Steve Killelea, the man behind the Global Peace Index, explains its potential value in helping make investment decisions.
The Bank of Canada delivered on an almost universal expectation for a 25-point rate hike last night.
The growth of the Reg S bond market has been one of the defining trends of the Asian capital markets in recent years. Driven by the seemingly unstoppable rise of Asian wealth – especially deep-pocketed Chinese investors – US dollar bond sales in the region no longer depend on the participation of US institutions.
Mixed performance from FX, with EUR/USD recovering from earlier falls but commodity currencies taking a minor hit from a mini-USD revival and easing in commodity prices.
2017 was marked by a return to stability following the volatility of recent times and the rise of innovative new products, especially in the green and social sectors.
Zombie was one of the Cranberries’ biggest hits and though written about what O’Riordan described as the seemingly interminable fight for Irish independence, it’s a fitting description of the US dollar, which more and more resembles a dead man walking.
Friday was a case of another day, another US dollar slide (plus new record closing highs for both the S&P500 and NASDAQ, but that almost goes without saying these days).
The AUD/USD started December on a positive note boosted by USD weakness amid tax reform uncertainty and news reports speculating on Russia’s intervention in US politics.
Could you get more value from your financial services provider? If you only ever talk tax, you could be missing out. Stannards’ Marino Angelini explains changes in the health practice and accountant relationship and why wealth building, cost cutting and asset protection should all be part of the service.
Oil prices trade to a new three year high and excluding JPY, the USD is stronger across the board. Meanwhile, US equities have made new highs, yet again! and all major European indices closed in positive territory.
In a wide-ranging state-of-the-market perspective, Steve Lambert, Executive General Manager, Corporate Finance at NAB, attributes Australian transaction breakthroughs in 2017 to long-term positive trends on the demand side.
We’ve analysed where the Aussie dollar has spent most of its time since it was floated in 1983 and the results may surprise you.
A mixed US labour report and softish ISM non-manufacturing print had minimal impact on the USD and US Treasury yields while global equities have continued on their merry way higher amid a supportive global economic backdrop.
While there are many things to consider when buying new equipment to make your business more productive, one of the most important is finding the best way to finance the purchase. NAB Agribusiness General Manager Khan Horne is urging customers to carefully consider all available options.
Before I went to bed last night, the working title for today’s edition was Queen’s ‘Another one Bites The Dust’.
As we go to print this morning, the US House has passed the US tax reform bill.
Population growth remains very strong – QLD strengthening.
US equities have started the week on a solid footing boosted by the prospect of US tax reform becoming law later in the week.
Stocks, the US dollar and Treasury yields all rose in afternoon NY trade Friday, seemingly in anticipation of Congressional tax writers announcing a reconciled tax plan capable of being voted on by both Houses this week.
US equities retained the negative tone seen during the European session and have been unable to trade in positive territory amid concerns over the prospects for US tax reform.
Markets overnight initially took the lead from a lower than expected print on US core CPI for November, missing the 0.2%/1.8% consensus by a tenth, at 0.1%/1.7%. Stocks rallied, the dollar faded as did Treasury yields.
*Launch of world-first low carbon shared portfolio backing renewable energy*.
Amid light trading US equities are a little bit higher (NASDAQ is flat) and European equities closed in positive territory.
Two weeks ago, we wrote on the outlook for the AUD from our Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill highlighting the expected move of the AUD/USD into the US$0.70-0.75 cent range.
It’s been a night marked by a suicide bomb explosion in Times Square, an event that thankfully inflicted very contained damage to individuals and even less to market stability.
Reduced government funding and a growing population are forcing local councils to find alternative funding for public assets and community projects. NAB has already started filling the gap, with new mechanisms opening up funding sources usually closed to small lenders.
If it wasn’t for Friday’s US labour market data, Lionel Richie’s “All night long” would have been a great option for a title today, highlighting PM May’s sleepless effort to strike a deal about a deal with the EU.
Tom Petty described The Waiting as a song about waiting for your dreams and not knowing if they will come true.
After the AUD rollercoaster of the past two days, there’s been some follow-on selling of the AUD overnight.
The USD is stronger against most currencies and the AUD has given back all of yesterday’s gains amid overnight softness in metal prices.
Way out West: mining and exploring again.
My colleague and Markets Today co-conspirator Tapas Strickland has to date had a monopoly on Rhianna songs, but since he’s just arrived at NAB in London to spend time gaining international experience, I figure the Barbadian songstress catalogue is now fair game for use by the rest of us (not that there are many of her songs left to choose from).
The month that was for the AUD. The key events in November 2017 that impacted the AUD/USD.
Summer has begun in Australia today, it’s Friday and we have had a risk positive night.
Nothing like starting the day with some good old Australian hip hop. Funkroar 2011 hit “it’s all good (very good)” nicely captures the key upbeat message from Fed Chair Yellen appearance before Congress alongside the better than expected US and EU economic data.
The connection of Eastern Australia to global LNG markets has seen domestic prices face a wild year.
It has been a pretty busy night with Fed Chair in waiting Powell appearance before a Senate committee, mixed US data releases, confirmation of UK-EU Brexit bill (after some confusion), North Korea launching a ballistic missile and lastly the US Senate Budget Committee has just announced a tax bill has been sent to the Senate for voting.
A relatively quiet start to the week following a relatively quiet holiday-impacted end to the last one.
Tangerine Dream, the German electronic music group, provided the soundtrack for Risky Business, the 1983 Romantic Comedy starring Tom Cruise and Rebecca de Mornay. The group have produced over 100 albums since forming in 1967.
We wrote yesterday how the USD had been sold lower on the back of the cautious Yellen comments.
Medley: labour market, state GSP, housing, and Amazon.
The UK Budget was handed down overnight and UK growth estimates have been marked down from low productivity.
A rather uninspired song title (from a band whose name might not make it through the filters) from your somewhat sleep-deprived scribe (Lorde concert at the Opera House on a school-night, and at my age).
The month that was for the AUD. The key events in October 2017 that impacted the AUD/USD.
The key drivers behind NAB’s AUD/USD and AUD cross-rate forecasts
The overnight session saw an improvement in risk sentiment with European equities closing in positive territory while US equities are also having a good day so far.
Two song titles in deference to the untimely death of AC/DC founding member Malcom Young at the weekend at just 64.
Caution remains the main theme in markets with equities softer on both sides of the Atlantic weighed down by the energy and materials sectors amid softer oil and metal prices.
Frankfurt is the town and the great and the good of the global central banking fraternity will be the doing the talking later today at an ECB sponsored conference on central bank communication.
A somewhat bitty, non-descript market offshore on Friday with asset markets not all marching to the same tune.
Equity markets hit a jittery patch overnight with selling seen across Europe and the US.
The RBNZ this morning has left rates on hold at 1.75% but the language has spurred some Kiwi buying.
It’s been a very quiet night for markets, the DXY and BBDXY making some net gains, but more from commodity currency weakness.
RBA to stick with gradual inflation uplift ahead
In the last hour, President Trump has announced that Jerome Powell will be the next Chair of the Fed, as has been widely flagged in recent days. So no surprises there.
Jive Talking: “To speak in an exaggerated, teasing, or misleading way”. I can’t believe we haven’t used this Bee Gees classic once in the year that has almost passed since the result of a certain election.
The news on the state of the US and European economies has been good overnight, adding more sunshine to the global growth acceleration story.
Inflation – what does the latest CPI tell us?
Admittedly I never heard this Oasis song before this morning and I was surprised to learn that it was a top 10 hit in 2007.
Two factors drove much of Friday’s offshore market activity. One was a Bloomberg source report suggesting that President Trump was inclined to nominate Jerome (‘Jay’) Powell to be the new Fed chair.
To borrow from Depeche Mode, it seems markets Just Can’t Get Enough with a dovish ECB taper and increasing confidence in US tax reform seeing a rally in risk assets.
After a sleepy start to the week markets have awakened over the past 24hrs.
US markets right have been caught between 1) the on-going negotiations over tax between the White House and Republicans, 2) who will be the next Fed Chair (the market seems to be positioning for a Taylor-Powell duo but there’s still no news), and 3) the course of the broader economy.
As song titles go, Sweet Dreams by the Eurythmics probably sums up overnight price action the best.
US bond yields ended the NY session on the day’s highs.
Unemployment to head lower say labour market indicators.
The biggest news overnight was the finalisation of the NZ Government. Labour’s Jacinda Arden will now be the next Prime Minister following NZ First’s deal to form a coalition government.
Milk It is from Nirvana’s third album ‘In Utero’ and starts with the line ‘I am my own parasite, I don't need a host to live’. It references Kurt Cobain’s frustration with fame and drug addiction.
The USD has continued to eke out small gains amid ongoing speculation over Fed Chair nomination, US equities are flat (DJ briefly traded above 23k for the first time) and commodities are mixed.
Consumption has held despite consumer worries.
It has been a quiet start to the week in the Northern Hemisphere, but of note the USD is slightly stronger across the board and commodities also had a good night.
It's now six from seven in terms of core US CPI undershooting expectations (six months at 0.1% including Friday’s September print and just one at the 0.2% consensus estimate that has prevailed for each of these seven months).
It’s been an overnight session marked by generally limited moves in currencies – the Pound the exception – bond yields have been steady-to lower on net, equities down smalls with commodities mixed.
Pink Floyd’s first album without Roger Waters “A Momentary Lapse of Reason (Inflation?)” probably captures the key take-away from the Sep 20 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
It’s been a mix of events in the UK (better data), Europe (no immediate declared Catalan independence from Puigdemont) and the US (Trump tax politics and a softer NFIB report) that have provided the background for limited currency moves overnight.
Gas supply assured but higher prices still probable.
Markets were quiet overnight given the Columbus Day Holiday in the US. Equities were flat (S&P500 0.2%), the US dollar was marginally lower (DXY 0.2%), while the US bond market was closed (note futures were open but with little movement).
Neil Diamonds’ Beautiful Noise was the working title for today’s missive following the latest US payrolls s report on Friday.
After taking a breather, the USD has regained its mojo partly driven by concerns over other currencies along with a supportive domestic backdrop.
Despite a stellar US Non-manufacturing ISM, there were only modest market moves overnight.
The challenge meted out by some of my colleagues yesterday (many of whom are probably still in bed) was to incorporate as many songs from the now late great Tom Petty into this daily missive.
Potpourri: inflation ponderings, people and cranes.
There have certainly been some unsettling events over the past 24-48 hours for markets to ponder.
It was a session of two halves on Friday night.
It’s been news filtering out over the past 24 hours of the Trump/Republican tax plan that understandably gathered the attention of markets and gotten USD bulls re-energised.
Fed chair Janet Yellen spoke last night and opined that it would be ‘Imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation hits 2%’
Jobs boom seeing some emerging rises in advertised salaries.
A mild risk-off theme quickly emerged around midnight following North Korea’s statement that the US has effectively “declared war” and that North Korea has every right to “make countermeasures”.
Hung parliaments on current voting tallies in general elections in New Zealand on Saturday and Germany on Sunday have taken bites out of the NZD and EUR at Monday’s market re-open.
The FOMC this morning announced as expected the formal start to winding down its balance sheet to commence next month.
US President Trump’s 40 minute address to the UN, in which he described N. Korea leader Kim Jong UN as “Rocket man on a suicide mission for himself and his regime” has given us a (predictable) song title but frankly not much else.
GBP and CAD pull back on latest BoC and BoE utterances, helping USD move ahead again aided too by modestly higher US Treasury yields (10s +2bps to 2.23%). This pulls AUD comfortably back below 0.80. It has already traded - intra-day - through last week’s 0.7956 low.
Why we forecast – it’s the turning point that matters
Another day on and the Pound has again been the star performer in the currency markets.
While the market’s focus was expected to be primarily on the US CPI print for August, there was much more market action across the Atlantic with the Pound soaring on the back of a near term rate rise warning from the Bank of England.
While equity markets had a day of consolidation, the USD and US Treasury yields had a decent move higher aided by increasing hopes over US Tax reform.
US$90 trillion in new investments by 2030 have been estimated as necessary to meet the goals of UNCOP21 to address climate change. National Australia Bank (NAB)'s David Jenkins says the opportunity for green bonds to mobilise capital for this transition to a low carbon economy is immense.
Yesterday’s song title was Start me up by the Rolling Stones and it still seems an apt description with the risk‑on tone continuing overnight.
A broad risk on rally that started in the Asia continued overnight driven by expectations of a lower damage bill from Hurricane Irma and the absence of geopolitical headlines with North Korea not launching an ICBM on Saturday as many had feared it would.
What does the Bank of Canada mean for the RBA?
USD indices closed in negative territory on Friday, but managed to recover a bit of ground in the overnight session, thanks to a rise in UST yields and a softer CAD after a mixed employment report.
I don’t care, I love it was the electro pop song of 2012. So it was with the market reaction to the ECB meeting overnight with the Euro higher (+0.9% to 1.2023) and German Bund yields lower (-4.0bps to 0.31%).
The ancient English nursery rhyme was used allegorically in George Orwell’s 1984 to foreshadow the death of true knowledge (and so the advent of fake news, some 50 years before the Simpsons in 2001 foretold of Donald Trump’s ascendency to the US Presidency).
There are plenty of news stories about the muted reaction from markets to the latest escalation on the Korean peninsula.
Consumer confidence – personal finances weighing.
"All Eyez On Me" is a single by 2Pac’s fourth album by the same name and it is one of the most acclaimed hip-hop albums of the 1990s.
It was another FX dominated session with the standout performer being the Canadian Dollar, up 1.1% after stellar Q2 GDP figures.
The US dollar rose 0.6% across the board overnight in reaction to stronger than expected US GDP growth and a stellar ADP payrolls print.
The “risk off” sentiment that overshadowed markets after the launch of yet another missile from North Korea didn’t even last 24 hours.
With Jackson Hole out of the way, markets and related news have been more focussed on Hurricane Harvey, some more news stories out of the West Wing and the resumption of UK-EU Brexit talks. It was a bank holiday in the UK.
Construction job opportunities rising; mining jobs reappearing
Well I never thought I was going to use Ronan Keating for a morning note tittle, but he just said it the best.
Markets are little changed in the lead up to Jackson Hole, with little in the way of major FX moves to report.
Yesterday’s USD resurgence accompanied by an improvement in risk appetite and hopes of progress on US tax reform came to an abrupt end courtesy of President Trump threat of a government shutdown, if funding isn’t included for the border wall promised in his campaign.
It’s been a risk-on night, a night of some returning support for the USD, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.34% (the DXY by 0.46%), the Swiss Franc and the Yen seeing the larger declines overnight. The driver has been US politics and enlivened talk on tax reform.
It was a very quiet session overnight with little data of note.
Dual-citizenship crisis – government’s majority still likely ok.
The lack of key data releases and major corporate earnings news contributed to Friday’s quiet trading session with major US equity indices trading in and out of positive territory.
The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc top the FX leader board while the AUD is close to the bottom at 0.7884.
The USD rally ground to a halt overnight amid continued US political machinations and uncertainty over the trajectory for inflation in the latest FOMC Minutes.
Looking through Spotify this morning I was surprised to see that “Animal” is quite a popular song title. I was going with Pearl Jam 1994 hit, but then I noticed I could have gone with Deft Leppard or more recently Ellie Goulding or Kesha would have also done the trick.
The Aussie was slightly weaker at -0.5% with weaker than expected Chinese data weighing alongside a stronger US dollar.
Looking for improvement in SA, QLD and WA.
The NASDAQ rose by an impressive 0.64. In commodities USD slippage helped gold gain $4 to $1287.7 (up $20 on the week).
Looking at the overnight chart US equities opened lower following the moves from Europe and Asia.
Geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea dominated the overnight session. However, market moves were contained following a winding back in rhetoric by US Administration officials.
Bridging the gap is a song by American rapper Nas and as a tribute to his father the song aims to bridge the gap from blues, to jazz, to rap.
It’s been a slow start to the week, not just because of yesterday’s NSW bank holiday (it’s not exactly the centre of the universe is it, much as some of us might like to believe otherwise?).
Retail glimmers of light in a competitive landscape.
DJ Khaled didn’t have the folks in Washington’s Eccles Building in mind when he composed ‘Fed Up’ in 2009, but December 2017 Fed rate hike pricing pushed up from around 40% to 50% on Friday.
The British Pound has been knocked off its recent lofty perch.
The Dow Jones moved up to 22000 for the first time ever boosted by Apple’s better than expected sales report - Apple shares rose 4.7% to 157.14 after posting a 7% increase in revenue.
The reasons for slow wages growth in Australia and around the world is a topic occupying the minds of central bankers.
"We are experiencing a bubble not in stock prices but in bond price”.
The Euro is trading this morning at 1.1844, the best performing of the majors overnight, up 0.96%.
Brent oil rose back above the $52 mark punching through its 200MDA and now is almost 10% up month to date.
The AUD lost momentum into the London session as the USD recovered some of its mojo.
As expected, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged overnight.
Judged by equity, bond, and commodity markets, it’s been well and truly a risk-on night, but it’s been more mixed as far as the currency market has been concerned.
The AUD reached an intraday high yesterday of 0.7968 but has traded with a softer tone during the overnight session.
RBA unlikely to begin to normalise interest rates this year unless unemployment begins to fall sharply soon.
In G10 FX, AUD and SEK were the only two currencies to buck the trend of a falling US dollar.
The pick-up in market price action has continued overnight in FX markets. For the AUD, it’s now pretty much all about the Guy Debelle speech today.
Markets have largely paused for breath overnight, with US Treasury yields flat-lining and the US dollar ever so slightly firmer.
The USD sell off that began yesterday during our day session continued overnight following senate Republicans’ failure to push through their healthcare reform.
It’s been something of a sideways/choppy night.
Old King Coal – coal still a big part of China’s energy mix but its role is on the wane
Economy with momentum into Q3
For an avowed AUD bear, Friday was about as depressing a day as it has been all year.
It’s a nod to Bastille Day today and with the US President visiting France, declaring in a tweet his “unbreakable” relationship with the French President.
Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.
The Canadian dollar is the standout winner in FX markets after the Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% to 0.75% as widely expected but didn’t deliver the ‘dovish hike’ some were expecting.
Encouraging signs emerging, but long-term headwinds keep RBA on the sideline.
With exchange traded funds, gaining exposure to a range of high-tech overseas businesses can be as straightforward as buying a share.
After trading to an overnight low of 0.7605, the AUD has staged a decent recovery reaching an overnight high of 0.7643 and settling around 0.7640 currently.
It’s been a very quiet start to the week, generally a night of consolidation for markets ahead of a calendar that sees the US earnings season unfold amid an array of central bankers meeting and speaking together with some data over the next 24-48 hours.
Solid US labour market but no inflation alarm bells.
In German chancellor Angela Merkel’s words, the G20 accord issued on Saturday night didn’t even attempt to paper over the differences between the United States and the other 19 G20 members.
In terms of market moves, most action happened in bonds. The bond sell-off continued overnight, underpinned by a weak French 30-year bond auction.
The AUD is a little softer this morning, thanks largely to comments from RBA Board member Ian Harper in a Dow Jones interview published around 7pm last night.
With the US market closed for the Independence Day holiday, the focus has been elsewhere and for the markets in both Asia and Europe.
Bowie’s song titles have an amazing suitability for morning note titles, lyrics on the other hand don’t always suit.
Population tilting higher.
The narrow DXY US dollar index ended Q2 recording its biggest quarterly loss since Q3 2010.
There’s a fine balance between risk and reward in major infrastructure projects. Understanding the opportunities and challenges is equally important, as is securing the right kind of funding.
While consumers use the convenience and technological advances offered by credit cards for over 35 per cent of their payments, corporate cards are used for under 2 per cent of business payments.
German and Spanish CPIs for June were released overnight – in a limited data schedule – and pointed to a better-than-expected print from tonight’s Eurozone CPI by 0.1% if not 0.2%. That’s added support to the EUR/USD and yields overnight, the Euro this morning at 1.1440.
Lift was Shannon Noll’s first post Australian Idol hit. The lyrics “seems like forever that you’ve been falling, it’s time to move on” are an apt description of the mood of central banks, which have been removing expectations of further policy easing and getting the market into thinking of central banks tightening policy. This theme continued overnight with comments from the Bank of Canada’s Poloz and Bank of England’s Carney.
As summer times kicks into full mode in Europe, ECB President Draghi play list is slowly but surely moving away from the likes of Olivia Newton John “Hopelessly devoted to you” , being replaced by more upbeat tunes such as Kaiser Chiefs “Every day I love you less and less”.
In an otherwise relatively quiet night with only the mildest of risk-on tones, gold was something of a standout.
Employment growth is realish.
The late great Robin Williams sang this theme song to the 1999 South Park movie at the Academy Awards, penned by Matt Stone and Trey Parker, in which Sheila blames Canada for the kids’ bad language (and more besides) after watching the expletive-ridden Canadian movie Terrence and Phillip: (expletive deleted) of Fire.
Norway’s central bank removed its explicit easing bias at its meeting overnight, stating “the balance of risks suggest that the key policy rate will remain at today’s level in the period ahead”.
A lingering risk off tone remains evident in markets with equities on either side of the Atlantic ending the day with small losses.
Almost out of default, the USD is higher in a night of virtually no key data, but not getting any clear support from a mixed set of Fed speak, Charles Evans (voter) sounding dovish and Kaplan too.
Strong focus on the implications of the beginning of normalisation of rates by the Bank of Canada.
On my way home last night I thought the Spice Girls were a strong candidate for a song title today. Brexit negotiations started overnight and Wannabe (“Tell me what you want”) would have been a good option.
Some very refined harmonies from Seattle indie folk band Fleet Foxes to start the week.
A split Bank of England (BoE) decision to keep rates unchanged and another fall in oil prices were the two big events overnight in an otherwise quiet night.
The Fed this morning announced a hike in the Fed funds rate by ¼%, as entirely expected, lifting the Federal funds rate to 1.00-1.25%. But we walk in this morning with the big dollar having been pressured and the US Treasury curve lower. Another case of the usual “buy the rumour, sell the fact”?
Business versus households – how will the situation resolve itself?
The performer among major currencies has been the Canadian dollar where recent strong hints from Senior Deputy BoC Governor Carolyn Wilkins that the Bank of Canada is shifting to a ‘tightening bias’ given signs of an improving economy continues to resonate with markets.
US bond markets have been treading water in front of the two day FOMC meeting that commences tonight, 10s stuck around 2.2%, while the Australian dollar has been spent most of its time meandering within a narrow 0.7420-0.7445 range.
Sterling has been hammered (-1.7% to 1.2735) as the BBC exit poll points to a Hung Parliament (Tories are set to be 12 seats short of a majority, being on track to get 314 seats; Labour 266; SNP 34; 326 required for majority).
The T.Rex 1971 classic is doubtless before most readers’ time but not this one unfortunately, growing up with the first (and still the best) U.K. glam-rockers.
It was another quiet session overnight with an ever so slight risk-off tone (Yen, Gold, Vix higher and Treasury yields lower) ahead of Thursday’s key risk events – ECB, UK Election and testimony by former FBI chief Comey.
It has been a quiet overnight session ahead of what could be a stormy Thursday with the ECB, UK election and Comey’s testimony all occurring on the same day.
Underemployment dragging on wages growth.
US equities have closed on their highs and again with softer oil prices.
It has been a quiet end to the month of May, nevertheless the month has ended with a few themes raising question marks over the near term outlook for markets.
There was little in the way of significant market moves overnight.
Infrastructure spending emerging and not too soon.
With the US and the UK markets closed for Memorial Day/Spring bank holidays, the focus in a quiet night was on European markets, specifically interest in ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech to the European Parliament.
Ahead of a long weekend US equities ended the week in a relatively subdued note, oil prices recovered a bit of lost ground since the drop in prices post the OPEC’s production cuts extension announcement and US treasury yields were little changed.
It’s been a night where oil news took centre stage in the lead up to the end of the week with liquidity likely thinner today/tonight into the US long weekend with the US Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
The biggest news overnight was the FOMC Minutes, which were interpreted cautiously by the market as confirming the likelihood of a June rate hike, but casting some uncertainty over the trajectory for rates thereafter. The US dollar fell on the news, while bond yields declined.
European and US equities have continued to edge higher amid a mild risk positive tone in the overnight session.
It’s been a night of relative calm when all is said and done and not at all resembling the middle of last week.
How much spare capacity is in the labour market?
The recovery in US equities continued on Friday and unlike Thursday, European equities also managed to record some gains.
The US market has taken a breather overnight, notwithstanding news very late in the overnight session yesterday that a Special Counsel (Robert Mueller, ex-FBI Director) was being appointed to investigate Russia’s involvement in the election.
It’s been a real night of risk-off emanating from the US and the Twitter sphere going into overdrive over speculation around whether the President pressured James Comey – then FBI Director - to drop his investigation into Mike Flynn, former National Security Adviser, with Russia in the mix.
The two most significant development overnight were a 1.0% surge in the Euro (Euro now fetches 1.1089 – the highest since November 9 2016), and continued weakness in the US dollar with the DXY down 0.7% overnight and at its lowest point since just after the US the election.
Wow! If you are looking for a quick wake me up antidote, try playing Metallica at 5:30 in the morning, trust me you won’t go wrong.
Labour market outlook to improve.
Almost certainly neither Sam and Dave nor Elvis Costello had inflation or inflation expectations in mind when the recorded this track, though for the record US CPI was running a little shy of3% when Sam and Dave first recorded the song in 1967, and over 20% in the UK when Elvis Costello covered it in 1980.
Not a big night for markets.
The RBNZ made its policy rate announcement a few minutes ago and while the OCR was left unchanged at 1.75% as expected, the Bank failed to deliver a tightening bias.
After just over 24 hours since Macron’s French presidential election win, the Euro and European equities are feeling a bit hangover following a solid run in the previous two weeks.
There wasn’t a whole lot of market movement on Friday in the wake of the April US employment report showing a 211k rise in non-farm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.5%.
The two big events overnight were a 4.8% slide in the oil price and a surge in European risk assets.
It’s all been about the FOMC and weakness in the AUD over the past 24 hours.
News on Apple’s earning report have hit the screen in the past hour showing revenue and iphone sales slightly missing expectations.
It’s been a rather listless overnight session, US data has been on the disappointing side, US equities have been headed sideways, the USD did not build further on yesterday’s gains at the start to the week, while oil continues its march lower.
News of North Korea conducting another (apparently failed) ballistic missile test crossed the wires about 30 minutes prior to the NY close.
After some mis-communication in March, ECB President Mario Draghi chose his words especially carefully and stuck to his script at his post ECB press conference overnight.
It has been a relative quiet session in markets with US politics dominating the headlines.
Markets have rallied hard on the back of the French Presidential elections on Sunday.
Headline CPI picking up in 2017.
The final results of the first round of voting in the French presidential election aren't yet confirmed.
A fair bit of news to digest overnight, and some market price action across currencies, bonds and equities to accompany it.
US equities have come under pressure in the past few hours weighted down by a sharp fall in oil prices following reports of an increase in gasoline inventories.
The Pound soared 2.2% overnight following the UK PM’s call for early elections.
Plenty of news, both economic and geopolitical, since we broke for Easter, the net market impact of which has frankly been quite modest.
Geopolitics took a backseat today with Trump’s Wall Street Journal interview dominating market moves.
The global macro picture has been muddied by a rise in geopolitical tensions, economic data releases overnight have been largely ignored and safe haven assets have outperformed.
The oil price was the standout performer with WTI oil up 1.6% to $53.10 a barrel while Brent reached $55.99 after having risen for six-consecutive days.
The APRA Chairman and RBA Governor both make clear that the recent moves reflect a desire to further tighten lending standards in what is considered to be an environment of heightened risks.
US employment data fell below expectations on Friday, hitting the markets harder than the escalating problems in Syria.
We haven’t seen a whole lot of market price action overnight, with the US dollar marginally higher, as are US bonds yields but by less than one basis point.
It was a busy overnight session packed full of data that led to some intraday moves.
Titles for our Markets Today note are a great topic of conversation with colleagues and clients alike.
Titanium was the urban-dance hit of late 2011 and is still a favourite of gym junkies the world around. The lyrics also seem to be an apt description of the US economy where data remains strong even though a risk-off tone has developed over the past couple of days.
A negative end by US equities to Friday coupled with upcoming risk events suggest the AUD and NZD are likely to tread water at the start of the week.
The UK Brexit letter has finally been delivered, but market reaction has been fairly muted.
Getting toward the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and given the torpor of risk assets markets of late, the return of some buying could easily have occurred. And that could well be part of the explanation for overnight moves.
Australia’s population growth has strengthened to a 1.5% pace, equivalent to around 350k persons in the past year – almost equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year (or a new Darwin and a new Hobart!).
The German economy is continuing to out-perform. The run of better than expected data continued, this time from the German Ifo Survey for March.
The USD (BBDX) was little changed on Friday while US equities and US Treasury yields ended the week a little bit lower reflecting a mild risk off tone.
Some mornings coming up with a title is a real struggle and then others like today you are spoil for choice. I have no idea if Donald Trump is a Beatles’ fan, but if he is ‘Don’t let me down’ would be one of those songs that he couldn’t get out of his head right now.
Have markets broken up with the Trump trade? Today will be a key test of this hypothesis with the US Congress voting today on a key healthcare reform bill which is seen as a crucial test of the relationship between the White House and Congress.
The AUD remains a tad under 0.77 this morning, in a session where there’s been some overall diminished appetite for the USD, with the Yen the strongest in the session, up 0.65% at 111.8, with gains also for the EUR, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.
The market opened yesterday in the Asia session where it closed on Friday with the USD and Treasury yields in retreat.
From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).
US equities have reversed about half of yesterday’s post Fed rally, the USD is a little bit softer and UST yields are a little bit higher.
Janet and Co. has spoken and like the Commodores before them, re-affirmed that three is the magic number.
Financial stability considerations to keep RBA at bay
What was meant to be a quiet night ahead of key risk events (US FOMC and Dutch elections today) turned out to be rather more exciting.
What can the history of Australian monetary policy tell us about the current monetary policy debate?
It has been a quiet overnight session with markets essentially marking time ahead of key risk events tomorrow and later in the week.
As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR performed and it has also pushed bond yields higher.
298,000 more of them were doing just that last month according to ADP.
Markets continue to tread water ahead of the more important risk events later this week – the ECB meeting Thursday and US Payrolls Friday. There was little in the way of significant movement in bonds or currencies, while equities were a touch lower after having had hit fresh highs last week.
When nothing else springs to mind, David Bowie songs are always a handy source for a daily note title.
Hot n Cold is one of Perry’s 2008 hits and is not a bad title for today’s daily. Hot events overnight include EU inflation jumping to a 4 year high of 2%, US jobless claims falling to a 44 year low of 223k and Snap, the parent company of message app Snapchat, rallying 41% on […]
Something of a return to the good old days in the last 24 hours, when an infolding economic calendar and rhetoric from Fed officials counted for more than what the leader of the free world had to say.
Astute readers (and listeners to our early morning podcast) will note Empire of the Sun’s Walking on a dream was one of our first song titles for 2017. That title was prompted by a lack of detail around Trump’s policies ahead of inauguration day which led markets to ask “is it real”?
New data released by NAB today indicates that spending on consumption-based goods and services by NAB customers grew 3.1% over the year to Q4 2016.
In the lead up to President Trump’s joint session address tonight in Washington (Wednesday 13.00 AEDT is the scheduled time), the US Treasury yields have started the week moving back up, but without too much conviction.
Thinking about some of the challenges facing Australian policy makers – and arguably consumers - at the present time, the slow growth in wages looms large.
Another quiet end to a quiet week but with the U.S. dollar grinding out small gains despite further slippage in US bond yields (10s -6bps) and a fairly flat U.S. stock market (albeit new record closing highs for the S&P and the Dow).
More Australian businesses are doing business overseas and with advances in technology and the strength of the Australian dollar, more and more small businesses are choosing to import goods from overseas suppliers.
More focus on the US economy and the big dollar overnight in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday and followed that up overnight with two more interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg TV.
It’s a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focussing on European politics again overnight, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year in rude economic health with evident momentum.
Strong European data failed to excite markets – the exception being equities – as the upcoming French Presidential elections take centre stage. Betting markets now ascribe Eurosceptic Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while a poll by Elable for L’Express magazine overnight puts her within striking distance in a run-off with Fillion with 44% of the vote – inspiration for today’s title “Livin’ on a Prayer” by Bon Jovi.
With the US out celebrating president’s day, Europe was always going to be the focus in the overnight session. My dad used to listen to Santana, so the first song that came to mind was “Europa”, a mellow song with no lyrics, but notable for Santana’s guitar solo.
One feature of Australia’s recent employment growth has been the subdued pace of full-time job creation at a time when part-time employment has grown strongly
Just over a week ago, President Trump promised a ‘phenomenal’ tax announcement in 2-3 weeks, so as the clock ticks down to some form of announcement, market inertia is set to reign.
Business surveys and measures tracking the volume of activity suggest that the global economic upturn lifted a notch toward the end of last year and that trend seems to have continued into early 2017.
Don’t be alarmed. It’s not that markets have spat the dummy, but rather US equity markets are down, having opened high, with bond yields also lower. In the currency space the USD has been softer, Euro, Sterling and the CHF stronger. The Aussie has been steady-to-lower, though hugging 0.77, supported by the soggy big buck.
My colleague Rodrigo Catril warned yesterday of the possibility of a US Fed March rate hike – what he termed the Ides of March. That argument gained further currency overnight with the US CPI and core‑Retail Sales printing double the market consensus.
NAB Economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp cut in late 2017.
Stronger near-term momentum will keep RBA on hold, but 2018 still a worry.
Reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the senate triggered a sell-off in US Treasury yields and a broad USD rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next FOMC meeting in March.
The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.
The message in American band Daughtry’s 2011 song later covered (with aplomb) by the Arctic Monkeys is, according to the writer, “Your significant other is in the right and just like she said it would happen, you come crawling back”
The Australian budget in the first six months of this financial year is tracking a little higher, but not significantly worse than recent budget forecasts
Last week the USD regained its mojo largely thanks to President Trump's hint of a phenomenal tax policy announcement and on Friday the USD waivered, particularly against JPY when at a joint press conference with Japan’s PM Abe, President Trump responded to a question about currency devaluation saying that "we will all eventually...be at a level playing field." and then added "That's the only way you can fairly compete in trade”.
The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.
The Trump-trade was reignited overnight on the back of the President flagging an impending “phenomenal” tax announcement.
It’s been a rather listless overnight session as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax reductions and deregulation from the Trump Administration, and hopes of better growth, seems to be priced in.
In just two years, Jamie Davison and business partner Nathan Hood acquired six businesses. Here, Davison explains how they did it – and the rookie mistakes others might want to avoid.
In what has been a quiet night of data releases and tweets from President Trump, the USD has been the quiet achiever amid simmering political and fiscal uncertainties in Europe, softer oil prices, flat US equities and lower US Treasury yields.
It’s been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets fretting about the extent of timing of Trump reflation, not to mention ongoing tweets.
Fed pressure index signalling upside risks for US inflation and interest rates?
A bit of early 19th century opera to kick off the week (don’t fret, I’m sure we’ll be back in rock & roll mode for the rest of the week).
The supposedly “lively” conversation that President Trump and PM Turnbull had yesterday over the Australia-US refugee deal has gotten quite a deal of not just Australian press but international press coverage overnight.
The major event overnight was the US FOMC meeting where rates were left on hold as expected. There were very few changes to the post meeting statement with the Fed playing a straight bat. Markets were somewhat disappointed with Treasury yields and the US dollar reversing earlier gains that had occurred following stronger than expected US economic data.
More unwinding of the Trump lower taxes/higher infrastructure spending US$ reflation trade has again been the order of the day. The Bloomberg spot USD dollar index is down by ¾% as markets again sell the big buck, reacting to the latest statements from the new Administration, selling kicking off earlier in the session with some safe-haven buying of JPY and CHF in response to the immigration policies.
New Order’s Blue Monday is the best-selling 12 inch single of all time in Britain (mmm I wonder how many 12 inch singles are out there!) and is also the longest charting single at 7:25.
While we are receiving many questions about the impact of President Trump’s policies on the outlook for the US and global economies and markets, the most frequent question we are being asked about Australia is “why is NAB forecasting two interest rate cuts in 2017” (in May and August)?
A glance at Friday’s New York opening and closing levels for major FX rates tells us that the latest flurry of US data, including a slightly softer than expected Q4 GDP print and downside miss on headline durable goods orders, came and went without much fanfare. US yields dropped on the 1.9% headline GDP print while currencies and stocks did very little.
Sydney music producer Flume claimed the top spot in Triple Js 2016 Hottest 100 yesterday, but many will consider the moral victor to have been Melbournian busker Tash Sultana for her brilliant ‘Jungle’.
Today’s 1994 classic Hot Potato by The Wiggles is likely to be seared into the memory banks of parents and children alike – likewise for your scribe. A staple the humble spud may be, but possibly an expensive one in the 4th quarter according to our economists.
Economic reports have been scant overnight. Trump, trade, executive orders and a White House press briefing have provided wire feedstock for news and trade into Asia trade today.
Apartment construction which has risen strongly over the past few years was reported by the Statistician to have declined in the September quarter.
In a defiant and brief speech, President Trump made it clear that from now on “It's going to be only America first” and in what has now become a great economic debate he reiterated his view that “Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength”. Against this view, history and economic theory tells us that protectionism usually involves an increase in tariffs and a decline in trade.
The key views of NAB and BNZ's economists and strategists
Markets continue to digest Yellen’s speech yesterday which was seen as mildly more hawkish and positive US economic data overnight played into that view. The ECB also met last night with Draghi coming off as slightly dovish, playing down the recent uptick in inflation and remaining committed to the asset purchase program.
It’s been a reversal back to USD strength overnight – including a late session kick along from the Fed Chair, more on that below - the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.35% before she stepped up to the plate, and another ½% since.
Never underestimate the ability of markets to discount the same news twice. Or in the case of the US dollar, the ability to ignore a relevant piece of news one day only to react with alarm to it a day or two later.
In 1979 President Carter endorsed a bill to have a holiday in honour of Martin Luther King (MLK), but a Conservative Congress at the time refused to pass the bill. Eventually President Reagan signed the holiday into law in 1983 and it was first observed three years later.
Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 44th President of the United States (45th if you count Grover Cleveland as both the 22nd and 24th President) will capture the world’s attention on Friday.
Walking on a Dream was the inaugural 2008 hit song by Aussie electropop outfit Empire of the Sun. That seems an apt description of how markets have been since the election of Trump with a dream run for equities and the US dollar all premised on the idea of a Trump fiscal stimulus boosting growth and inflation. Now with inauguration just a week away (20 Jan), markets are asking “is it real”?
The overnight session has been a tale of two halves, a dull affair ahead of Trump press conference and a volatile session post.
US small business owners tend to be Republican, and those who are member of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) overwhelmingly so. Thus optimism among NFIB members surged to its highest level since 2004 in December and with the monthly increase, from 98.4 to 105.8, the largest since 1980.
Steve Lambert, EGM Capital Financing, explains, innovation and volatility again dominated 2016. Markets were challenged by social, political and economic events which brought about new opportunities for our customers. We delivered insights and solutions to help them face into the increasing environment of disruption and regulation.
Global equities were mostly lower overnight, dragged lower by the oil price. That added to an already uncertain tone following indications that the UK may be hurtling towards a harder Brexit than first thought.
When thinking about a title for today’s note and the impact the US labour market report had on Friday’s session, Aristotle’s quote ” the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seemed quite fitting, but way too long for a title.
As the markets quieten down for the holiday break, we reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour.
It seems unlikely that Italy’s largest Bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, will meet today’s timetable to raise five billion Euros and provide a lifeline beyond March.
Tapas Strickland shows his knowledge of the Classics, describing yesterday’s RBA minutes as Delphic, in places.
Australia’s population growth remains strong by historical and international standards at around 1.4% y/y. That is 338,000 persons in the past year – nearly equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year.
Janet Yellen gave a talk this morning reinforcing the commentary around the strength of the US economy, pointing to steady growth in jobs and rising living standards. A less rosy picture for Australia, of course, but, not bad enough for ratings agencies to act.
China’s capture of a US Navy Drone showed that the US dollar is not infallible.
The US dollar continued to rise after the FOMC rate decision yesterday and Janet Yellen’s more Hawkish tone.
No technical recession, but outlook for domestic demand uninspiring
The US Fed delivered their anticipated 25 basis point rate hike this morning, but they surprised markets by announcing an expectation of three further rises in 2017, one more than previously anticipated.
It’s been a rather uneventful night as the offshore markets did some more final positioning ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC meeting.
In Chile, Tuesday 13th instead of Friday 13th is considered to be an unlucky day.
How fast (or slow) is Australian employment growth?
Shock and awe is how one London based analyst described the Saudi’s decision to cut oil production even further at the weekend.
Mario Draghi had the markets wondering whether the European Central Bank would extend its bond buying program or start tapering its commitment. In the end, it seems, they’ve done both.
Sterling was the worst performing G10 currency overnight, in part because of worst than expected industrial production figures.
Back in March 2011 Lady Gaga’s hit “Born this way” was leading the music chart in Australia and Pink was number one on the Billboard chart.
The market’s knee jerk reaction to “no” outcome from the Italian referendum saw the Euro fall back by over a big figure for an hour or so, but that was it.
An early song from English progressive rock band Barclay James Harvest. No, it’s not on my playlist either.
Talk of oil cuts has been enough to see prices rise again overnight, up 15% this week. So what’s it doing to bond yields and the US dollar?
Oil prices shot up when OPEC announced that a deal had been reached in Vienna, giving special dispensation to Iran, but overall cuts across the group.
The key event this week will come from Vienna where ministers from OPEC are scheduled to meet and hopefully finalise the first cut in oil production in eight years.
Oil remains a keen focus with prices back up around $1 a barrel.
Rising oil prices from early this year and again from the middle of the year have been associated with rising medium-to-longer term US inflationary expectations (and indeed expectations globally).
Oil prices, of course, have a massive bearing on the rate of inflation throughout the world. That's why the outcome of OPEC talks this week are crucial.
In his 2007 best seller “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb uses the life of a thanksgiving turkey as an analogy for explaining a black swan occurrence i.e. a tail event that is so remote that is completely unforeseen.
The song by Angus and Julia Stone (my absolute favourite Sydney band) made number 1 on Triple J’s Hottest 100 songs of 2010 and was responsible for propelling them on to the international stage. Big jet planes were also responsible for the 4.8% jump in US October durable goods orders reported last night and which […]
Imagine 800 million buyers at your door.
The USD continued to march a little higher, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up another 0.14%, gains mostly against the Euro, the Yen, and Sterling, the latter from some self-inflicted news.
The S&P 500 hit a new high overnight, largely because of a spike in oil prices as Vladimir Putin steps in and says he expects OPEC to reach a deal next week, and agreeing to limit production in Russia.
A key question this week, for the AUD at least, is whether local exporters will continue to stand aside expectant of still better levels to initiate longer dated hedges and/or whether local real money will now look to lift hedge ratios.
For those who thought there was a chance Yellen may depart the Fed early, those notions were cast aside with Yellen indicating she was very much Stayin’ Alive and was intending on serving out her full four year term.
It’s been an overnight session of digestion and reflection for the market, one week on now from the Presidential election.
It’s been a night in which the US bond market has staged a mediocre rally – not quite a party – for most of the session, tilted to the belly of the curve and the long end. It looks to have been some profit taking after the surge in yields since the US election.
Leonard Cohen passed away last week and on my way in I was listening to a mix of folk tunes with the hope of finding one of his songs as a title for today’s note.
While it is reasonable to expect economic change, the degree is understandably uncertain given that in recent days some of the President Elect’s policy positions have been softened and meanwhile policy initiatives will need to be approved by Congress.
Following the severe earthquake this morning in South Island NZ, the Wellington CBD is out of action including the BNZ Harbour Quays building. BNZ Markets will be operating from Auckland / Christchurch and DR sites.
Prospects of greater US fiscal spending (infrastructure and tax cuts) under a Trump Presidency continue to buoy equity markets, while US bond markets are sold on the prospects that such policies are inflationary.
The impact of the win in the U.S. Presidential election by Mr Trump is at this stage highly uncertain
16 Years ago the Simpsons episode “Bart to the future” aired for the first time with a plot partly consisting of Lisa becoming president of the United States. Lisa tries to get the country out of financial trouble due to the high levels of debt left by the previous president, Donald Trump.
US election highlights social and economic tensions
And it’s on two fronts this morning. The first is of course the election outcome as America votes to elect its 45th President. The second story relates to news breaking out of China yesterday that the authorities are stepping in to take the heat out of coal and steel-related prices.
Today feels a bit like a trip into the unknown with the US election entering its final stage as Americans head to the polls tonight.
Another big story for the Australian economy this year has been the strength in bulk export commodity prices.
Modest dollar strength and higher Treasury yields was the initial response to the US payrolls data but proved fleeting.
The focus for markets overnight was well and truly back on the UK with Sterling the stand-out performer overnight, trading this morning with a solid 1.24 handle, a full three big figures above where it opened the week.
This Fed meeting came with no press conference and updated forecasts for this meeting; that next comes at the December 15 meeting.
US Equities are off, the VIX is up, the US dollar is lower, US Treasury yields are lower and the Mexican Peso/Japanese Yen cross (-2.5%) is still proving to the be the FX market’s weapon of choice when it comes to reflecting sentiment regarding the prospect of Donald Trump.
There was no scary ending to the month of October with markets in general playing it cool ahead of a busy week of data releases, central bank meetings and what is turning out to be a fairly dramatic US presidential election.
This week we report on the views of Japanese clients of Australia following a recent trip to the country.
In the hour after it was announced that Hillary Clinton’s e-mails were the subject of a new FBI probe, USD/JPY dropped from Y105.50 to Y104.50, the S&P dropped 20 points or 1% with the VIX spiking by 19% and 10-year Treasuries dropped 2bps from 1.85% to 1.83%.
The Bee Gees 1979 classic “Too Much Heaven” pretty much sums up overnight news, with UK GDP printing much better than expected at 0.5% q/q against expectations of a 0.3% print.
Turbulence, a little known track by American pop punk band Bowling for Soup appears to be an appropriate title for today’s note. The song was written by Jaret Reddick after he asked a pilot whether he found turbulence frightening.
Seven years on from their 1974 classic ‘Whiter Shade of Pale’, Procol Harem’s light-hearted ode to the health benefits of fruit is set for a test today. Healthy on the body fruit may be, but possibly not on the hip pocket in Q3 according to our economists.
While European markets started the week in a lethargic mood, trading sideways for most of the day, US stocks opened higher following a series of merger announcements with the market also getting a boost from better than expected earnings reports.
With the RBA a keen inflation targetter, albeit within a flexible medium-term framework, each quarterly CPI reading provides an important update on current inflation trends and is a key input into the Bank’s forecasts.
Auction clearance rates in Australia this weekend hit 80% - not just in Sydney and Melbourne but nationally and for the first time since early 2015.
The ECB meeting came and went with absolutely no change in policy, as expected.
The revelation by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz following an as-expected unchanged monetary policy decision that the Bank ‘had actively discussed the possibility’ of further monetary policy easing at Wednesday’s meeting.
Ahead of today’s welter of Chinese GDP and activity data, the AUD is trading this morning almost bang on where it was yesterday afternoon.
Bruce Springsteen cautious man tells the story of a man that has doubts about his marriage and in a similar way markets have started the week in a tentative mood reflecting some concerns on the outlook.
In contrast Janet Yellen’s speech in Boston did - primarily in the form of higher Treasury yields at the longer end of the curve and with that late-day support for U.S. dollar. NY Fed President Bill Dudley said he expects a rate rise this year on current forecasts.
Time will tell whether the softer tone over the past 24hr is just a small correction or a sign that a bigger change is coming.
The outlook for the labour market is key. While we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain in its recent range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.
While the FOMC Minutes captured the market’s attention, for your scribe the most instructive comments came from the Fed’s Dudley who serves as the FOMC vice-chair in his fireside chat overnight.
Global economic growth remains soft with a sub-trend pace of expansion set to continue and few signs of an upturn.
The RBI cut the policy rate by 25bp to 6.25% at the October meeting.
Coming into work this morning I couldn’t help but think of Diana Ross’ Chain Reaction. It certainly was where US markets were concerned, with markets playing catch-up following the Columbus Day holiday to developments since the weekend.
Well it wasn't exactly midnight, but close enough. In a night that was expected to be relatively quiet given the US was celebrating Columbus Day, oil prices provided some fireworks after President Putin announced his support to a production freeze or even cut in oil output.
The past week has been dominated by bond yields moving higher as have oil prices.
Friday night’s US payrolls report underwhelmed for the second month running, showing a 151k employment gain.
Last night the ECB released its accounts of its September policy meeting and as expected there was no mention of tapering, the Bank reiterated its willingness and ability to ease further, if needed, while concerns over the lack of an uplift in core inflation was also evident.
Last night’s US non-manufacturing ISM report was certainly something to behold, with not only the headline read of 57.1 more than reversing the August drip.
Core global yields and the Euro have been disturbed by a Bloomberg report claiming ECB officials were considering QE tapering while early in the session the Pound was under renewed pressure trading to a new post Brexit low.
Selling of Sterling re-emerged in the Asia session yesterday and into London as the prospect of a “hard” exit from the EU loomed large.
Having just returned from a client tour this past week in the Riverina in southern NSW, there was also one topic that is currently front and centre for local farmers, and that was “rain”.
Who says fairy tales don’t come true with the Western Bulldogs and Cronulla both taking the silverware in the AFL and NRL grand finals over the weekend. Great results for both teams.
If Janet Yellen has been in the recording studio at the time, David Byrne might well have been directing his lyrics in her direction.
Spring has brought not only considerable rain to parts of the country but also a further uptick in the NAB Rural Commodities Index.
The main focus by markets ahead of Tuesday was no doubt the US Presidential Debate, billed as the showdown of the century.
Warning signs for China’s financial sector don’t guarantee crisis
Not a huge amount to say about Friday’s offshore markets (unlike Saturday night’s AFL preliminary final), characterised by a give-back of some of the post-FOMC stock market euphoria, fractionally lower US bonds yields and a slightly stronger dollar.
24 hours on, under my [central bank] umbrella is how the markets have interpreted Wednesday’s US FOMC meeting.
A rather measured night again in the lead up to the FOMC tomorrow morning and the BoJ meeting today where the Bank has been honing its thinking on policy to lift inflation.
Markets have been tapping their fingers overnight in the lead up to the Fed meeting. Currencies have traded in very contained ranges, the USD only somewhat softer again with the US Treasury curve up 1-2 basis points for the session.
August U.S. CPI data turned out to be the driver of much of Friday night’s market price action. The 0.3% rise in the core CPI series pushed annual growth up to 2.3% from 2.2% - matching its post-recession cycle high and versus the 2.2% expected.
The bigger picture – A Global and Australian economic perspective
How one assesses Australia’s economic performance at present depends in large part on which industry / geography one looks at and whether the benchmark is in real or nominal terms.
It has been a relatively quiet night for markets with the moves in GBP probably the major highlight. BoE Governor Carney faced the Treasury Select Committee in parliament and was quick to give himself a nice pat on the back for the bounce in business and consumer surveys in August.
Expenditure components show a lift in domestic demand, supported by public spend.
Despite inflation remaining stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% goal, lower unemployment can still be expected to generate price pressures.
In a night of still very contained major FX crosses, Fed commentary has started to kick in from Jackson Hole.
The “X factors” that had been dominating negative market views – bad debts in the Italian and Chinese banking system, terrorism, political issues and the rise of anti-globalisation – have given way to a “fear of missing out” rally.
It’s been a rather uneventful night for most of the major currencies, with the possible exception of Sterling.
The Australian dollar has opened this week close to 0.76 US cents, having lost some ground last week amid warnings from several key Fed speakers that the market is under-pricing the chances of a Fed rate hike this year
Friday looks to have shown FX traders to be the smartest guys in the room. Traditionally referred to as the ‘last market to clear’ (and so giving FX analysts such as this scribe a career) the dollar had put on a strong showing during the APAC session.
The overnight session was all about the July Fed Minutes.
The RBI held the policy (Repo) rate at 6.5%, as expected. NAB Economics is forecasting a 25bp cut in rates to 6.25% in the December quarter, on expectation of softer food prices.
Almost 24 hours after yesterday’s decision by the RBNZ to lower the OCR by 25bps and the NZD USD is almost exactly where it was before the rate announcement.
In delivering only 25bps cut to the OCR and which was more than 100% discounted ahead of time and the RBNZ’s latest 90-day bill track only implying one more cut, the NZD has predictably bounced sharply. It up just over 1% as we go to press.
At its August meeting, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 1.5% (against our expectations) following a similarly-sized 25bp cut in May. Major banks have since passed on some, but not all, of the easing through to lending rates.
Over the past few years, the rate of increase of Australian house prices has at times been of concern to the RBA.
As we are about to press the send button, the RBNZ has just released it economic update and although a dovish tone was expected, the NZD has dropped 25/30pips to around 0.6988.
Yesterday’s RBA Minutes with its dovish take and concerns about the activity side of the economy saw the local rates market move to price in a higher above-50% probability of an August RBA move (from 59% to 63%).
In a quiet session US and UK equity indices edged a little bit higher buoyed by technology and financial shares while European indices drifted lower weighted down by energy shares following a sharp drop in oil prices.
Last week’s local data provided further indication that the recovery in the non-mining sectors has continued through the June quarter.
News of the (now failed) attempted military coup attempt in Turkey started filtering though about half an hour before the US stock market close, too late to have much impact on cash indices which closed fairly flat but early enough to see the S&P500 futures lose 0.4% after the NYSE close
SA economy making progress; NAB survey, Employment and BoE this week
Anna Leadsom has stood down as a candidate for leadership of the UK Conservative Party, paving the way for Home Secretary Theresa May to be the next Prime Minister, expected to be formally installed Wednesday after PM Cameron’s resignation.
he US non-farm payrolls headline rise of 287k comfortably exceeded expectations (180k) but wasn’t backed up by the subsidiary details in the report with the unemployment rate higher, small net downward revision to the prior two months payrolls and hourly earnings up just 0.1%.
It was an eventful news day for the AUD yesterday, even if the currency was little changed, and is not breaking new ground this morning, S&P yesterday changing the outlook on Australia’s AAA rating from stable to negative.
Consumer anxiety has now fallen for each quarter over the past year, as Australians respond to sustained improvements in the labour market and recovery in the non-mining economy.
The personal ties remain strong between Australia and the UK. Around 1.2 million people living in Australia in 2015 were born in the UK, one in 20 of the population.
Alan Oster discusses the influence of the sharing economy and explores how fast it is growing and its impact on the business community.
Brexit and local farm conditions too Thursday’s UK EU Referendum will occupy market attention this week. A poll being conducted by ComRes for the UK Sunday Mirror at the time news of the assassination of British MP Jo Cox hit the wires revealed a switch in voting favouring the remain vote. The percentage of those […]
Yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei and strengthening of the Yen on the back of BoJ inaction and heightened concerns around the outcome of the UK EU referendum set the tone to the early part of the overnight session.
Expenditure components show exports driving growth, but rebalancing still evident.
The past week has seen interest rate markets continue to receive warnings from various Fed speakers – including Fed Chair Yellen – that US interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months.
In most of the major economies the outlook remains fragile, as a result of political uncertainty and disappointing earnings results. However recovery in equity prices has continued into April, primarily to the bounce in commodity prices and supportive central banks.
In a shock revelation, the Dallas Fed has published a note on its website saying that the impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades.
The rise in oil prices overnight were not enough to prevent retail driven decline in US equity markets. The US dollar was weaker across the board and a solid 10y US Treasury auction amid a cautious mood helped core global yields move lower.
An improvement in risk appetite has helped global equity markets recovered some grown overnight with the Nikkei a notable exception. FOMC minutes revealed an April hike was discussed, but a cautious approach appears to be well entrenched. A pick up in oil prices contributed to the positive move, but the strength in the yen continues to weigh on Japan’s equity market.
Latest ECB move highlights negative interest debate.
The Australian economy remains resilient amidst an uncertain global backdrop.
Another volatile week in markets with equity markets up and the bond market also rallying on expectations of the US Fed delaying further rate hikes.
RBA watching international developments closely; far from panicking about the current state and momentum in the domestic economy with signs of the economy’s emerging rotation
Domestic economy still arguing for unchanged RBA policy
The markets make significant reversals on little fundamental developments, suggesting positioning and sentiment had become extreme.
EGM Capital Financing, Steve Lambert, discusses two common themes that were present over the past 12 months - Innovation and volatility. It seems that 2015 saw more firsts in the market while at the same time it seeemed markets were closing just as quickly as they opened.
Many Australians dream of a financial windfall that would significantly improve their lives forever, but how much is enough? In this special report, we ask over 2,000 Australians to tell us how much they need.
NAB Business Markets Podcast with Mark Todd and Peter Hartley.
Variable economic growth outcomes continued into Q3, with real GDP picking up strongly to 0.9% q/q, following a revised weak 0.3% outcome in Q2 and a strong 0.9% increase in Q1. Year-ended growth picked up moderately to 2.5% y/y, but remained below trend.
Based on incoming information, we have modestly reviewed our GDP forecasts to 2.6% in 2015/16 and 3.0% in 2016/17 (annual average). Overall, NAB Economics remain of the view that the recovery in the non-mining sector is slowly becoming more well entrenched.
Business expenses continue to rise – but are you paying more than you need to? Brett Hay, a consultant with Expense Reduction Analysts, shares seven simple strategies that could help shave 10 percent or more off the everyday running costs of your business.
The Euro is weaker this morning and the USD a touch stronger thanks to ECB President Draghi banging the drum about QE, the ECB staff downgrading their Euro-zone growth and inflation forecasts and a pretty comforting slug of US data.
A more measured night. Shanghai finished down smalls yesterday (-0.2%) ahead of a four day long weekend to mark China’s victory in WWII and while European bourses had something of a see-saw night closed higher.
Women are still under-represented in senior positions across public and private organisations. Speakers at the recent Women in Health Leadership symposium considered why this is the case, and whether financial acumen could help women to achieve the most senior positions.
After years of studying to be a medical practitioner you’re finally earning an income. Philip Mawkes, a Senior Relationship Manager at Medfin, explains why it’s important to make your financial future a priority and shares a five-point plan to help you get off to a flying start.
A lease could help you to afford the equipment you need for your business – especially if it’s tailored to your cash flow. NAB Asset Finance specialists Fiona McDowall and Rebecca Warren discuss your choices, potential benefits and the pitfalls to avoid.
The US Private Placement market offers a rich source of long-term funds for a wide range of Australian corporates. Our latest survey reveals the key factors that influence US investor buying decisions and their expectations for 2015.
Government funding for new infrastructure in the higher education sector has recently dried up. As a result, a number of universities are accessing capital markets and bank loans for their infrastructure financing needs – in turn offering significant opportunities for debt providers.
Thanks to the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA), there are now new opportunities for Australian businesses to move into Japan. NAB's Kohei Tsushima explains how those in agribusiness, financial services, health and education are the most likely to benefit.
As Steve Lambert, EGM Capital Financing, explains, 2014 was the year that opened up new opportunities for customers - from the new funding model for local government to the higher education sector emerging as a new borrower in the market. We review the year in our magazine.
This report uses our expertise from across a range of industry sectors. In this edition, we present a compilation of articles with the underlying theme on change, and we ask NAB’s Chief Financial Officer for his view of the barriers and challenges for the Australian business landscape.
The US payrolls report on Friday night was solid, despite the headline increase of 214K in October coming in below the 235K expected. September payrolls were revised up by 8k to 256k and August up by 23k to 203k.
Changes to the financial sector’s Basel III rules are making it expensive for councils to borrow from banks. NAB’s James Waddell explains how the Local Government Funding Vehicle (LGFV) will create efficiencies, reduce borrowing costs and open up new avenues for local council finance.
Director, Corporate Debt Markets Origination at NAB, Brad Scott discusses the recent developments in the Market Term Notes (MTN) market, along with the outlook for the rest of the year and the opportunities that are opening up for investors.
For the 13th consecutive month the RBA has kept the cash rate unchanged at 2.50%. They are still on a neutral bias, and there was no meaningful change to the overall tone of the Statement.
Key economic insights from this week and the week ahead
The Reserve Bank of Australia made no change to policy at today’s meeting, as expected. There were minimal changes to the press release, and the RBA again concluded that “on present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.”
There are some more meaty reports due on the economy this week, commencing with the ANZ Job Ads report for June (L: -5.6%), a last partial look into labour demand ahead of Thursday’s labour force report.
The Australian project finance market is widely considered a world leader when it comes to assessing the financing of greenfield development risk. Michael Clarke looks at how mining/resource project financing may be a helpful paradigm for financing large-scale greenfield agri developments.
View the NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster’s presentation, 3AW commentator Tom Elliott’s assessment and the Q&A panel at our Federal Budget Breakfast in Melbourne.
Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian business. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.
Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian agribusinesses. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster outlines the key features of Joe Hockey’s 2014 Federal Budget announcement and analyses how it may impact Australia’s economic outlook and financial markets.
While some saw this as ‘the Budget we had to have’, the grants news is good. Overall funding for businesses is set to increase under measures proposed in the 2014 Federal Budget. GrantReady summarises what the Budget means for grants and funding programs.
Patrick Vizzone, Regional Head of Food & Agribusiness, Asia, Institutional Banking reflects on how the outcomes of last November’s Third Plenary Session of China’s Communist Party’s Central Committee may shape the Australian agriculture sector.
Australia’s role in securing the food, water and supply chains of Asia will be dependent on our ability to embrace change and innovation. Dr. Ken Henry looks at the opportunities that exist for Australian businesses in the Asian century.
There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about recently, from shoes to defence contracts - Australian and global markets appear to be bursting with opportunities. Here's a selection of business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors in 2014
M&A has been a big theme recently, with entrepreneurs and established businesses alike snapping up opportunities. Air-con was a burning issue and property developers were dancing at the prospect of better funding and more opportunities.
There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about recently – from the action on Melbourne’s Chapel Street to where to find the richest retirees. Here’s a selection of recent business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors in 2014.
The reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors. In this edition we are pleased to present a compilation of articles with an underlying theme around the Australian opportunity in the growing Asian region.
There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about so far in 2014 - from weather predictions to our reading habits. Here’s a selection of recent business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors in 2014.
The summer edition of Business View Magazine explores the ecosystem behind the business of sport, looking at how entrepreneurs working in and with the sports sector deal with changes in the business environment. Download the free iPad edition via our new publications app NAB Think.
How to add Australian Debt Securities & Corporate Bonds to a portfolio. We bring you the third of five research reports examining the Australian corporate bond market. In this report we cover the important topic of accessing the fixed income market and the various methods investors can use to access debt securities and corporate bonds.
Economic data can be baffling. Bombarded with numbers, headlines, warnings and opinions from all directions, it can be hard to know just what to focus on. So what do you really need to know? And what does it all mean? We explain.
In this edition of Corporate Finance Insights we focus on the value that can be unlocked in managing working capital, hear perspectives from industry leaders and share insight from NAB specialists into the major trends and opportunities for working capital management.
Good cash flow is the lifeblood of every business yet many owners feel uncomfortable about chasing the money they're owed. Roger Mendelson, CEO of Prushka Fast Debt Recovery, suggests practical, easy-to-implement ways to ensure you're paid on time.
If you're looking to grow your business, offering credit to your customers can be a smart business move as long as the process is carefully managed. Danielle Woods of Dun & Bradstreet, suggests practical ways to avoid the pitfalls.
Researchers say tax compliance is costing small businesses $28,000 a year - but Sue Prestney, spokesperson for the Institute of Chartered Accountants, believes that many are spending far more than they need. Here are her suggestions for saving time and money.
Most businesses in the healthcare sector are affected by fluctuations in currency and interest rates. NAB’s Head of Corporate & Institutional Markets, Darren Hooton, cautions against complacency and suggests strategies for mitigating risk.
If you’ve been thinking about improving the efficiency of your importing or exporting business with Australia’s largest trading partner, there’s now a more efficient way to settle trade transactions in China. Hear the latest insights from NAB’s team of experts.
The Winter edition of Talking Shop has a new look in addition to the usual insights from industry experts on the latest security, technology and industry developments. We look at how to generate more sales, how to reduce the risk of online fraud and more.
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds - What’s the risk? Important considerations for Investors. We bring you the second of five research reports examining the Australian corporate bond market, prepared for National Australia Bank by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies
The asymmetric (downside) risks we alluded to in our previous AUD forecast update have eventuated and we have now made further downward revisions. The Fed's return to the (early stages) of policy normalcy in itself justifies an AUD/USD in the low 0.80s.
As we approach the end of another financial year, Bongiorno Group’s Director, Michael Waycott, discusses tax-effective strategies, recent changes that may affect healthcare providers and why you should start planning now for next year’s return.
Nationally, farmers have been using Farm Management Deposits (FMDs) at record rates - the biggest month for deposits each year has traditionally been June, as farmers look to take advantage of tax benefits before financial year end.
We have been flagging likely downward revisions to our AUD forecast for a couple of weeks now, following first the somewhat unexpected May RBA rate cut then the range-break higher in US Treasury yields
For business owners, the end of financial year is the time to get things in order. Here are 11 strategies that could help you build and protect your personal and business wealth in a tax-effective manner.
The Council for Small Business Australia’s CEO, Peter Strong, talks to Business View, about the key areas they’d like to see addressed in tonight’s 2013 Federal Budget announcement and how those areas could help the broader Australian economy.
NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides a pre-budget overview of the Australian housing market and the outlook for interest rates. Join us on Wednesday 15 May for a full budget breakdown.
NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides a pre-budget overview of the Australian economy focussing on what we’ve already seen from the Government and commentary on the deficit. Join us on Wednesday 15 May for a full budget breakdown.
A year on from the establishment of the Personal Property Securities Register (PPSR), NAB Agribusiness is foreseeing a time when the system may assist more people to get into farming. NAB Agribusiness Head of Southern and Western Australia, Neil Findlay explains.
As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.00% yesterday, also retaining their monetary easing bias, or in their words, “the inflation outlook, as assessed at present, would afford scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand”.
This month in Agribusiness View, we have an in-depth talk with food producer Maggie Beer, hear about Asia’s growing demand for milk and dairy products, and learn how grain growers can manage their risk. We also give you a new view on women in the agricultural industry.
Grain growers who have done their homework will usually get opportunities through the year to lock in price spikes above $300 per tonne and hopefully healthy margins. NAB’s Director of Commodities, Business Markets believes preparation is the key aspect of managing risk for grain growers
There's been considerable debate recently around whether the natural resources boom has ended. In this edition of Corporate Finance Insights we step back from the day-today volatility in coal, iron ore and energy prices and try to understand some of the key drivers of the recent boom.
Basel 3 represents significant regulatory change, with profound impact on the global financial system, including Australia. This publication and related articles look at the likely impacts of Basel 3 and potential opportunities for Superannuation funds.
Bad business mistakes happen to good people, according to author and entrepreneur, Mathew Dickerson. Here, Mathew explains to Business View where some businesses stumble and reveals his list of common mistakes to avoid in business.
We bring you the first of five research reports examining the Australian Corporate Bond Market, prepared for National Australia Bank by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies.
Australian farmers are experiencing price volatility, so how can hedging help them take advantage of boosted demand for Australian exports following the US drought? NAB’s Head of Agribusiness for Business Markets, Rod Fraser, explains.
Accepting payments on the go is vital for some small businesses success. This week as featured on Kochie’s Business Builders, Cindy Batchelor from our NAB Small Business Banking team presents our top tips to getting paid quicker and easier on the go. Watch Cindy’s tip.
NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. The report is published four times a year.
NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. The report is published four times a year and explores topical issues facing Australian Corporates. Welcome to the May 2012 edition of Corporate Finance Insights. In this […]
From grants to farming apps, read our review on what’s happening in the agribusiness sector.
The impact of the Euro-zone financial unrest to the healthcare industry is increasingly affecting importing and exporting decisions of Australian healthcare businesses. Economic backdrop Currency markets continue to be volatile, notes Mike Bligh, NAB Head of Specialised Business, Business Markets and Wholesale Banking, and “significant swings are becoming a daily event. We recently saw the […]
NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. The report is published four times a year and explores topical issues facing Australian Corporates. Welcome to the second edition of Corporate Finance Insights. In our first […]
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Strong rebound in business confidence for ASX300 firms – exceeding the broader economy; business conditions record […]
Cash flow is the oxygen of business. The more effectively you manage it, the more successful and profitable your practice will be.
What can businesses do to stay ahead of the pack? Peter Strong, Executive Director, Council of Small Business of Australia (COSBOA), lists his top tips for small business success.
Good loan advice can bring your business plan to life and give you breathing space as interest rates change. We share some tips on loan selection.
Attention to business reporting will give your practice the information it needs to operate more efficiently.
No matter which area of the health industry you’re in, a higher or lower Australian dollar will impact on your profit margins when purchasing medical equipment or products from overseas or when recruiting staff from abroad. In the current situation, with the Australian dollar trading strongly, some GPs are buying equipment from online overseas medical […]
Many businesses are familiar with the stress of waiting for multiple customer invoices to be paid and concerned with the need to extend credit. This is where invoice finance may be a viable option. The most obvious advantage of invoice finance is the ability to improve core cash flow by converting debtor invoices into cash. […]
You can’t manage it if you can’t measure it. But how do you get your reporting systems to accurately portray what you really need to know?
With the Australian and US dollars trading close to parity, price ramifications for both exports and imports can make life difficult for local industries. But there are tools to reduce financial risk and help protect Australian businesses from the effects of currency fluctuations.
The complexities of the health system mean medical practices are not as straightforward as the average business when it comes to financing. Regulation, continual technological advances and changes in public policy all affect the economics of health businesses. Add to that a workforce of professionals whose services are in high demand and you have a […]
A business’s most valuable asset comes in human form, in the expertise of owners and employees.
Good cash flow management is critical to business success. There are a number of different levers businesses can use to help improve their payment systems and free up more cash.
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