April 10, 2025

NAB Monetary Policy Update – 10 April 2025

A fast return to neutral and additional support

Key points

  • We now see the RBA easing more quickly through mid-2025 taking the cash rate to 2.6% by February.
  • We expect the RBA to cut by 50bps in May, followed by 25bps in July, August, November and February.
  • Headwinds from the global environment have intensified, but error bounds around our forecast are large given uncertainty remains exceptionally elevated.
  • We have slightly revised up our unemployment rate in the near term, and shaved growth for 2025 but ultimately expect a larger policy response is required to keep activity on track.

For further details, please see the NAB Monetary Policy Update (10 April 2025)

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