Business Research & Insights

Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience

Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left

RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely

A slow second half, but persistent inflation

4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather

Jamie Bonic, Head of FX Investor Sales APAC, and Ray Attrill, Head of FX Research, joined ASFA to discuss the launch of NAB’s Super FX hedging survey.

Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks

Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response

Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months

Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge

The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain

Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak

Just how resilient is the Australian economy in 2023? From consumer confidence to business spending, hear directly from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster and Metro & Specialised Banking Exec Julie Rynski. Watch now.

Australia passing through a possible turning point

Rising rates to see slower growth ahead

Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%

Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3

Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.

Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%

Near term resilience but a slowing ahead

50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22

Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.

We'll help you find the right foreign exchange risk management strategy by understanding your core business and the challenges you face every day.

Rebound set to fade as consumption slows in H2 2022

NAB now expects rates to reach 2.85% by year-end.

Interest rates & inflation to weigh on the consumer.

NAB now expects rates to reach 2.35% by year-end.

Higher inflation, higher rates & slower growth ahead.

RBA rushing to neutral, rates to reach 2.10% by year-end.

Rates to rise further as strong growth continues

Strong CPI to bring forward first rate increase to May.

Rate rises set for June as strong growth continues.

RBA to hike rates in June, July, August and November, followed by a more gradual path through 2023 and 2024.

Unemployment to fall below 4%; inflation risks build.

NAB now sees the first rate hike coming in August; Gradual normalisation to follow through in 2023 and 2024.

Strong rebound slowed by Omicron as inflation builds.

RBA to hike in November, QE to end in February as expected.

Activity snaps back in Q4, pre-Delta GDP within reach

Rates lift-off brought forward as rebound begins.

NAB brings forward rate rise timing to mid-2023; YCC to end in November given the RBA's lack of commitment; QE to end in February.

NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call and expects economic activity to rebound strongly as restrictions are eased.

Waiting for the rebound after Q3 lockdowns.

The NAB Corporate Cash Index draws on our own Corporate and Institutional Banking client insight analytics to reveal cash management trends.

A near term hit to GDP before the recovery continues.

While Sydney and Melbourne remain a key risk to the outlook, NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call.

A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market – in Australia and abroad.

GDP to fall but recovery will resume as lockdowns end.

Lockdown disruptions but expect recovery to continue.

Re-Affirming our rate view and an update on the outlook for QE.

Immediate access to cash for Australian businesses through a PayPal and NAB collaboration.

A healthy outlook for the economy beyond the rebound.

YCC to end at Apr-24 and QE to be tapered to $75bn.

Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements

The NAB Corporate Cash Index draws on our own Corporate and Institutional Banking client insight analytics to reveal cash management trends.

A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market - in Australia and abroad.

Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.

Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements. This week's podcast includes a focus on inflation and FX implications .

Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.

Our Head of FX Investor Sales APAC and Head of FX Research joins ASFA CEO to discuss the 2021 survey.

A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.

What's the economic and financial markets landscape 12 Months on from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Healthy momentum leading into the JobKeeper wind-up.

NAB recently hosted the inaugural Capital Markets 2021 Virtual Conference for issuers and investors.

A new podcast that looks at what strategies clients used to manage the recent foreign exchange market volatility.

A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.

The Australian corporate bond market faces a range of opportunities and challenges over the coming year, a recent NAB Capital Markets Forum heard.

GDP fully recovered by Q1, but spare capacity remains.

A podcast that explores how Australian importers managed their foreign exchange strategies during and post the global pandemic.

Superannuation funds will need to be nimble to take advantage of new investment opportunities, the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia conference heard.

A new podcast that looks at what strategies agribusiness clients used to manage recent foreign exchange market volatility.

A new weekly podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.

GDP growth and the labour market continue to surprise.

QE to continue, RBA to grapple with ending YCC.

Companies that need to adapt and transition to lower carbon and more sustainable growth are tapping into a range of new sustainability-linked debt offerings to help finance this transition.

The banking sector has an important role to play in supporting industry through the economic recovery.

Stronger near-term recovery in activity and a lower peak in unemployment.

2020 has presented some unique challenges for corporate treasurers. Looking ahead, now is the time for many to review liquidity management strategies to ensure they are well placed as we adjust to a new post COVID-19 normal.

Thousands of businesses around Australia are re-assessing their supply chains, inventories and financing options to deal with future shocks in the wake of disruptions caused by the pandemic.

Stronger activity and a smaller hit to unemployment in the near term.

After two steps forward, European lockdowns are a step back for the recovery.

NAB Forecasts fundamentally unchanged – but large uncertainties remain.

RBA cuts rates to 0.1% and announces $100bn worth of QE.

A rethink of corporate strategies sees a renewed appreciation of the importance of resilience in the supply chain

Leveraging real-time pre-transaction risk controls to unlock card based procurement efficiencies.

Economic rebound in Q3, but signs that growth momentum is slowing.

VIC virus & reduced Government support means flat H2 2020. Larger falls through 2020 mean better 2021. But recovery still tough & long.

We outline three recent accelerating trends in the Australian payments space.

Focussing on the 3 Golden Rules of counterparty risk management will help your business navigate these uncertain times.

Global recovery continues but it is uneven and still a long way back to ‘normal’.

VIC virus shutdown makes the outlook significantly worse with no quick bounce back, with unemployment and poor confidence big issues.

An Australasian perspective on sustainable finance markets.

A temporary easing in rules around equity capital raisings has helped a surge in activity and this is expected to continue as companies shore up their balance sheets.

The pandemic has highlighted the importance of supply chain resilience for many Australian businesses.

Global recovery continues but virus outbreaks a major risk.

Extent of the fall in Q2 GDP revised sharply down – as is 2020. But pain still large and long lasting. With new virus uncertainties.

A monthly look at the ESG debt markets from an Australasian perspective.

Long climb back to ‘normal’ levels of global activity has started.

A small fall in GDP in Q1 expected to be followed by a very large fall in Q2 – followed by an extended period of recovery.

Our latest transaction insights paper looks at the journey of the New Payments Platform (NPP), Australia’s domestic payment clearing and settlement infrastructure launched two years ago.

A look at the Australasian ESG debt markets during the last month.

The longest period of bond market disruption since the GFC appears to be ending.

A massive contraction in global activity has occurred due to COVID-19.

Our forecasts are broadly unchanged – we still expect a fall of 8.5% in GDP in H1 2020 before a rebound in growth in Q4.

A monthly look at the Australasian ESG debt markets.

COVID-19 has placed significant pressure on corporates and implicated their operations.  Efficient cash management and adequate liquidity is one of the key principles to ensure survival.

Global economy in its worst post-WW2 recession, recovery timing uncertain.

Unprecedented sharp recession coming as a result of COVID-19. Sharp deterioration in employment and prolonged high unemployment.

Large sections of the Australian economy are now working from home or in remote locations.  Corporate Australia has had to quickly shift operational processes and adjust to new work from home arrangements, many for the first time. 

The implementation of social distancing has meant some businesses are reviewing their customer interactions at the point of payment.

With public debt markets in flux due to the spread of COVID-19, patience is the watchword for Australian borrowers in private capital markets.

Our latest transaction insights paper includes recommendations for managing credit card rejections and provides clarity on the credit card authorisation process.

All businesses need to be aware of how criminals may use the current crisis to target businesses.

Fraud threats to organisations are becoming increasingly sophisticated and targeted.

Fiscal stimulus to support near-term growth, with more likely to come in the May Federal Budget.

World growth to be hit hard in H1 2020 – at least – due to Coronavirus.

Soft Economy likely to be hard hit by COVID-19.  Outlook heavily dependent on severity and how long disruption effects of the virus last.

RBA to soon undertake yield curve control, reinforcing fiscal stimulus.

RBA to cut in March and again in April.

Coronavirus to deliver a shock to global growth.

We have adjusted down 2020 GDP by 0.5% due to bushfires & Coronavirus impacts, but boosted for 2021. RBA forecasts a big stretch.

RBA likely to stay on hold in February – with labour market conditions buying time. But cuts are still coming.

A financial system that has taken centuries to evolve will change dramatically in the next few years.

Investors are directing capital towards the projects and companies that will remain viable in the transition to a low-carbon economy, a major international conference was told.

In a rapidly evolving technology landscape, corporate finance teams have a range of options to improve efficiency, productivity and security with bank communication.

Private demand still “running on empty”. Broadly unchanged forecasts but concerns to the downside. Fiscal policy help unlikely.

Little support from fiscal policy to see further cuts in February and June, with a move to QE in the second half of 2020 a real prospect.

Janari Tonoike, head of NAB Japan Securities Limited, National Australia Bank’s (NAB) new Tokyo-based, wholly-owned subsidiary, showcases the long-standing relationship between Japan and Australia, and explains how the new entity can help investors and borrowers in both markets and beyond connect better in a challenging global business environment.

In October 2019, National Australia Bank hosted a Round Table with emerging lenders to share their experiences on the journey to bank securitisation funding and beyond.

Next RBA cut delayed to February 2020, with the risk of further cuts and QE by mid-2020 without fiscal stimulus.

Private demand still stalled. Broadly unchanged forecasts but slightly lower growth in the near term. Policy help delayed.

Unchanged forecasts with low rates expected to persist.

With the help of some big thinking and timely funding, Port of Melbourne has gone from strength to strength as they meet the needs of a growing Australian economy.

Global renewable energy owner, operator and developer, Pacific Hydro partnered with NAB to realise its renewable energy vision.

RBA to cut in October and again in December, taking the cash rate to 0.5% by year's end.

Companies sometimes seek changes to covenants during the life of a 10 to 15-year note. In this article, we examine the issues that can prompt such a request.

Global growth slows further as trade disputes escalate…again.

Below-trend growth and low inflation still expected as downside risks build. We have inserted another rate cut(s) in early 2020.

A landmark PPP refinance meets the needs of investors for a low-risk investment as well as the needs of borrowers for longer-dated debt.

Below-trend growth and low inflation – another rate cut ahead.

Forecasts unchanged – including key drivers of growth. Rate cuts to help but mainly in 2020. Fiscal stimulus impact small.

Panelists at NAB's annual DCM conference discussed the ideal confluence of demand and supply in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, which is home to some of the worlds fastest growing economies.

June was another month of two halves for the AUD/USD.

Investing in infrastructure is a long-term trend that will continue to endure global economic challenges, generating healthy returns and diversification opportunities as investors enhance focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.

The rising global stature of Asian investors and their search for fresh avenues to deploy their expanding wealth is aiding the growth of new markets.

Weakness in private demand to continue. Policy stimulus needed – fiscal, structural and monetary.

We invited Treasury representatives from four non-bank financial institutions and one UK-based asset manager – Liberty Financial, La Trobe Financial and Resimac Group in Australia and Kensington Group and TwentyFour Asset Management in the UK - to an International Round Table to discuss the opportunities and challenges in their respective mortgage and securitisation sectors.

Q1 GDP – headline growth overstates strength, but still a good result.

Sustainable bonds are appealing to a wider set of investors as the market develops, a recent conference was told.

A little innovation based on a big idea.

US private placements to stay a step ahead of the funding options pack for Australian corporate borrowers

Australia’s energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation which includes the increased penetration of renewable energy technologies.

As electricity prices continue to rise and domestic gas supply across eastern Australia tightens, Cooper Energy is one company that’s thinking big so it can be a significant part of the solution.

Turning 40: Charting the rise of China since reform and opening up

Macquarie saw demand for long tenors and appetite for socially responsible investments.

Conditions are expected to remain strong for corporate and institutional level borrowers in Australia in 2019.

After a year of credit spread tightening, investors are becoming more cautious and selective.

Private markets can offer consistent and steady support for issuers, the First Look Conference in Sydney was told.

Australia’s superannuation funds are turning to venture capital for the outsized returns the sector can generate and to diversify their portfolios, the 2018 ASFA Conference heard.

As 2018 draws to a close, we’d like to share some of the achievements of our Corporate and Institutional clients over the past year.

Alternatives are emerging to give Australia’s fledgling fintech firms easier access to funding.

In a Victorian first, Sacred Heart Mission and the Victorian Government recently launched the state’s first Social Impact Investment, an innovative financing structure that supports positive social change.

With expansion on the horizon, FRANKiE4’s Financial Controller, Jonathan Cole, is focused on the right markets and the right financial facilities to make the leap into Europe and the US.

Globally, the finance sector is directing ever-greater amounts of capital to address social and environmental challenges. Australia has more work to do on this front.

When Australia’s first green residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) tranche was issued by NAB in February 2018, it was an exciting development for the sustainable debt market in its own right. The transaction also marks another step in the process of unlocking the bank’s balance sheet for sustainable lending and borrowing.

Major Australian organisations are now directly investing in large-scale renewable energy projects through the new NAB Low Carbon Shared Portfolio, the first of its kind in Australia.

The world’s first sustainability bond from a university is funding a better future for students and for vulnerable communities.

Part-privatisation was the catalyst for an epic US private placement deal for Australian utility Ausgrid.

Breaking into the Australian renewable energy market with a new mode of financing was a great challenge and a golden opportunity for Goldwind. Three deals later, the company’s aiming to power one million Australian homes.

The launch of the green-loan principles (GLPs) presents an opportunity for another evolutionary step in sustainable funding. By standardising and codifying what qualifies as green bank lending, the GLPs could make sustainable finance relevant to a wider cohort of borrowers according to David Jenkins, director, sustainable capital markets at NAB.

First 25bp increase now expected mid-2019.

Will the US dollar rally continue this week?

The S&P500 fell a lot in early trade, testing some technical levels before regaining most of the ground. The US dollar has also retreated.

Words from the Fed have had little impact on the markets, across all sectors, except oil and gold, which rose on the news that not much has changed.

Suggestions the move reflects the US economy gaining momentum, whilst other economies are failing to keep pace.

Tapas Strickland suggests the markets are getting used to the US President’s style and that could ease concerns over future Trumpisms.

Why such little reaction to Friday’s historic peace promise? NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests why it failed to move the markets, and looks to this week’s major influences.

The Euro and European bond yields took a blow today as the European Central Bank failed to commit to a timetable for the ending of quantitative easing.

US 10-year treasury yields have moved passed 3 percent, boosting the US dollar and sending the Aussie dollar careering downwards.

US 10 year Treasury yields are very close to 3 percent this morning. As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie its resulted in rising bond yields elsewhere, including Europe and Australia.

FX Hedging Trends

If Steven Mnuchin reaches a trade pact with China, will it create enough confidence to push the Aussie dollar out of its trading range?

Inflation. Watch out, it’s coming.

Rising commodity prices, stalling inflation, a flattening curve and cautious Canadians

In a busy #MorningCall podcast @NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks to Phil Dobbie about US earnings, trade concessions, IMF forecasts, UK wages, Chinese retail, the RBA minutes, Bank of Canada, and more!

Can China maintain its stable growth profile as trade tensions increase?

It’s company earnings and global politics driving markets today. @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil Dobbie to talk about President Trump, Shinzo Abe, Theresa May, Michael Cohen and the next Deputy Governor of the US Federal Reserve.

Testing and (hints of) building capacity

Will the Syria missile strikes hit the markets today. @NAB’s Ray Attrill says not on today’s edition of #TheMorningCall podcast

Another day, another direction for US equities. Today they’re back up (for now) on easing tensions over Syria (for now). Join @NAB’s Gavin Friend and Phil Dobbie on #TheMorningCall.

President Trump’s missile warning spooks US equity markets for a while, but @NAB’s David de Garis said it was only a mild risk-off mood.

US equities and commodity currencies boosted by President Xi’s calming talk overnight – but @NAB’s Ray Attrill warns we can continue to expect periodic risk off sentiment.

US shares back up as trade war fears ease again, even though China threatens currency devaluation as a tool against tariffs. @NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil Dobbie on today’s Morning Call podcast.

Views from the US on Australia and the US

On #TheMorningCall today @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on the impact of trade war rhetoric and the fallout from Syria. Plus softer payrolls from the US on Friday.

March was a month of two halves for the AUD/USD.

On #TheMorningCall from @NAB, the US dollar recovers a little and stocks rise as investors hope tariff talk is more rhetoric than action. Plus, payroll figures tonight.

Equity markets fall then bounce on China tariffs, then talks of trade talks. Get up to speed on the #tradewar latest on #TheMorningCall from @NAB.

The FAANGs bite back – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Tapas Strickland about a slight market bounce, plus rising funding costs for the US government.

Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis if this is the end, or the start of it?

Ports and airports, toll roads and tunnels. These are just some examples of infrastructure sold into the US Private Placement (USPP) market over the last several years.

Technology out of favour, markets a little confused.

Early in the session it looked like share trading in the US was going to build on the upward momentum of yesterday, but then a sudden shift in sentiment.

Breaking down RBA research on wages.

Equity markets bounce back. The trade war was yesterday’s news. On #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the sharp turn around in risk sentiment.

Markets took a hit on Friday - what caused it and will it continue today? Phil Dobbie asks NAB's Ray Attrill if its trade wars, spending, staff changes or old fashioned over-valuation?

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril and asks, is this the start of a trade war good and proper?

It will be no surprise that the Fed has lifted interest rates this morning. Perhaps the tone was more hawkish than expected in Jay Powell’s first meeting as Fed chair.

The share markets rebounded today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s a positive sign that the reaction was contagion from tech stocks rather than anything more lasting.

NAB’s general manager, capital markets and advisory, Jacqui Fox, and head of debt syndicate, Mark Abrahams, highlight the key themes for Australian credit in 2018 and why they point to a positive fundamental story despite the resurgence in equity market volatility early this year.

The UK and the EU have seemingly reached a transition deal that changes very little till the end of December 2020, when Britain goes it alone.

Alternative measures of labour market tightness.

USD slightly extends Thursday’s gains, AUD makes new YTD low of 0.7710, -1.1% on the day.

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the market reaction to this, and to Theresa May’s announcement that 23 Russian diplomats will be sent packing in response to the Salisbury nerve agent attack.

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Cattril about the market impact of a President following a “my way or the highway” agenda.

AUD/EUR continues to approach its two-year lows.

NAB’s positive view of GBP and forecast decline in AUD/GBP is in the immediate term.

In February the AUD/USD gave back all of its January gains and some more. February was a month characterised by an increase in market volatility, particularly in equities amid US inflationary concerns alongside a rise in US bond yields and their implicit valuation concerns for physical and risk assets.

The markets are waiting for today’s CPI figures from the US.

On #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we could be a favoured state that avoids steel tariffs.

Who keeps some balance on trade now Cohn has quit? Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the volatility around President Trump’s growing tariff talk

Trade wars and trade imbalances: early thoughts

Equity markets are back in the black this morning with Treasury yields modestly higher amid further focus on Trump tariffs, with an attempted push back from two key GoP members, but an undaunted Trump.

The markets continued to react to President Trump’s stance on steel tariffs, with his resolve seemingly increasing over the weekend.

Lots of numbers out overnight but it’s politics driving the markets right now, with President Trump saying he will sign the order next week to impose tariffs on steel imports.

A Brexit breakdown pummels the pound – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we can expect the pound to fall further as the UK & EU draw lines in the sand.

NAB economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp increase in late 2018.

How fast is WA recovering?

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market reaction, which includes falling equities and rising bond yields.

The markets didn’t react positively to the UK opposition leader’s Brexit speech – infact, they hardly reacted at all. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland in London about the latest chapter in the saga.

Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what impact the news could have on the markets this week, after a rally on equities at the end of last week.

AUD back up to 0.7840/45.

Today’s Podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether they could lift bond yields, particularly given low interest in this week’s big auctions from the Treasury.  Gavin also explains why the UK’s jobless figures are not as bad as they seem, how Brexit talks are reaching the pointy end, and what will be the consequences […]

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about what he was trying to say. Plus, the response to US Treasury auctions, what to expect from the Fed minutes, the latest expectation on Aussie rate rises and what’s the story with oil?

Wages key to inflation and monetary policy.

The US Treasury plans to issue $151 billion in bonds today, $258 billion across the week.

Fresh from the annual Private Placement Industry Forum in Miami, we consider the options for investors looking to add a rock-solid asset to their portfolio.

US stocks retreat on Russia meddling, steel/aluminium tariff reports, but still make it ‘6 from 6’ up days.

Listed Investment Companies evolve and thrive in 2017.

USD is set to close lower for a 4th consecutive day and US equities look set to climb for a fifth day in a row

There was a sharp reaction to higher than expected CPI figures overnight but they have been tempered by weaker than expected retail figures.

The US dollar is on the slide again. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill the volatility remains ahead of US CPI figures tonight.

Stocks, bonds & Australia – still optimistic growth!

US equities extend Friday’s rally and Europe joins the party.

In understanding the drivers of the rise in AUD/USD from 0.75 in early December to above 0.81 in January, higher commodity prices have justified much of the move.

Friday was another choppy day for equity markets, although the S&P500 managed to end on a positive note.

Stocks fell across Europe and the US overnight.

Well it might be too early to call the recent rout in equity markets over, but price action over the past 24hrs suggests calmness has returned with European equities rebounding while US equities are relatively steady.

To some, The Beatles’ Helter Skelter planted the inspirational seeds for heavy metal.

Global air traffic and demand for aircraft stays strong in 2017.

It’s been another night for selling stocks, Europe taking up where the US and Asia left off (the Eurostoxx 600 was down 1.56%) and this set the tone for the US market.

RBA growth and inflation outlook still on course.

The jump in US annual average hourly earnings in January, to 2.9% from an upwards revised 2.7% in December, stole the limelight on Friday albeit there were a number of extenuating circumstances suggesting the number shouldn’t be taken completely at face value.