Business Research & Insights

Inflation yet to be defeated – policy rates could stay high for longer

Central banks may be at their peaks, but energy prices pose a risk to disinflation trend

Rising costs are having a big impact on small business owners. The good news: there’s lots you can do to stay one step ahead.

Soft landing hopes rise but headwinds remain

Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24

NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in June.

China’s weak Q2 growth presages weaker global growth

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew rapidly this month, following on from very subdued growth over the past two months.

Global growth set to slow as monetary policy bites

NAB Online Retail Sales Index was flat in month-on-month in April, after a mild contraction in March.

Global growth set to slow from robust Q1 results

NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth contracted in March, following the strong February result.

Bounce in global growth in Q1 won’t last

Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms

NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth accelerated in February, after returning to growth in January.

Bounce in Q1 2023; but bank stress highlights weaker outlook

In month-on-month terms, growth returned to the NAB Online Retail Sales Index, following on from a weak December result.

Inflation is slowing but is still yet to be tamed

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December after two months of growth in October and November.

With inflation still high, policy rate hikes to slow growth in ‘23

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index is back in positive territory.

Further monetary tightening to significantly slow growth in 2023.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index returns to growth in September

COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere

Central banks inflation priority leads to weak growth outlook

The smart plays that are seeing a cosmetic medicine operator deliver to 20,000 customers a year.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index has contracted for a seventh straight month.

Economic outlook weakens as central banks continue to tighten.

Our data mapping points to a slight drop in retail sales in August.

Hear from business experts on supply chain issues and opportunities - the impact on regional & agribusinesses, and how businesses are adapting

NAB's Online Retail Sales Index continued to contract in July.

Weaker growth prospects, persistent inflation & geopolitical risk

Our data mapping points to moderate growth in retail sales in July.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in June.

Tightening monetary policy puts the brakes on growth prospects

Overall retail spending looks to be coming under increasing pressure.

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen further gains in most agricultural commodity prices, tentative signs of a stabilisation in fertiliser prices, combined with a lower AUD and a weakening global growth outlook.

In this excerpt from the new NAB Regional & Agribusiness Horizons Report Dean Pearson, Head of Behavioural & Industry Economics at NAB, highlights key differences in attitudes and behaviours among city, regional and rural dwellers – including the finding that rural and regional Australians are happier.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in May.

Global growth prospects continue to weaken.

Our data show a drop in retail sales in May, albeit from generally strong levels seen earlier in the year.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a third consecutive month in April.

Growth set to slow to below its long-run average

We see retail sales continuing to grow in April, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previous months.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a second consecutive month in March.

COVID and conflict continue to cloud near term outlook.

March has seen smoother retail prospects when compared to the very choppy conditions across January and February, with our forecast pointing to moderate growth in the month.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in February.

COVID disruptions have continued but State economies have been resilient and labour markets are strong.

Russian invasion triggers uncertainty & volatility in global markets.

2022 started slowly on account of the Omicron wave but is now really picking up, notably in areas like hospitality and clothing and footwear.

NAB's Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in January.

Latest COVID-19 wave has led to a soft start to 2022

Consumers started 2022 in an understated fashion, following some big swings in late 2021.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in December.

Global recovery continues but inflation is high and Omicron a concern.

Consumers continue to power ahead across the country, with post-lockdown spending gains consolidated in our November data.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in October, following on from lockdown enhanced strong growth in recent months.

Supply side continues to constrain activity, driving inflation higher.

Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, but with reopening here, consumers are bouncing back and spending has returned.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index continues to exhibit considerable strength.

Energy woes add to persistent supply bottlenecks in slowing global recovery.

Reopening in NSW, soon to be followed by the ACT and Victoria, should give retail spending a good kick along in October and November.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index continued to grow in August, driven by department store sales and three key sales states, NSW, VIC, and QLD.

A rebound in Australia’s cotton industry has seen business cash inflows of NAB Agribusiness cotton grower customers surge since early 2021 on the back of booming production.

Strong economic growth in Q2 is set to falter in Q3.

Our data mapping points to another retail sales fall in August.

Lockdown passion projects spur online sales.

‘Build it and they will come’ – that’s the belief that drove Brisbane businessman Justin Montesalvo to grow his bright idea from blueprint to thriving high-end camper trailer maker.

Differing vaccination rates are driving a divide between economic groups.

NABs data mapping points to retail sales falling substantially in July.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index accelerated in June, following the May rebound.

Advanced economies open up again; can vaccines ensure it’s for the last time?

Recent lockdowns look to have dented retail spending in areas hard-hit in 2020, notably hospitality and clothing and footwear.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew in May, after a contraction in April.

A new phase of growth emerges across the states following a fast rebound.

Advanced economies continue recovery, as Emerging markets face further COVID-19 struggle.

Retail trends continue to point to the COVID-induced consumer boom having largely run its course.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in April, after a revised contraction in March.

With life in Australia currently very close to pre-pandemic “normal”, the boom in household goods and department stores has largely subsided.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in March, after a revised slight contraction in February.

Working from home can significantly improve work life balance, however, can also bring on other health concerns, particularly for mental health and feelings of isolation.

Uneven recovery set to continue into 2022, as EMs wait for vaccines.

2021 is already showing signs that the retail sector is returning to something resembling “normal”, which is likely to see lower retail spending in areas like household goods, electronics and similar sectors.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index slowed (40.7% y/y).

Autumn rain lifts EYCI outlook in the short-term.

US fiscal stimulus to add further impetus to global economic recovery.

How will consumers respond as 2021 rolls on and the prospect of some kind of post-pandemic normality comes into view via vaccination?

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in January, after a short sharp contraction in December.

Global pandemic boosts feeling of Australia as the lucky country.

Businesses are having to adjust to a new kind of consumer, but it remains unclear which behaviours and sentiments will stick.

Beyond near-term weakness outlook brightens on vaccine roll-out and fiscal support.

January’s cashless retail result represents respectable growth, following significant volatility late last year.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December, after moderate growth in November.

Recovery from COVID-19 continues across Australia

Widespread rebound in Q3 GDP, but COVID continues to disrupt global economy.

Victorian retail sales are now tracking just behind New South Wales and Queensland on a year ended basis. Western Australia remains the strongest performer, but other states are catching up.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in October, after four strong months of growth.

COVID-19 deepened the faith business clients have in their accountants. What better time to build that advisory business?

How COVID altered health behaviours – and health businesses.

2020-21 on track to deliver above average winter crop.

The retail sector has proven to be very resilient this year, although many consumers have changed their spending behaviour, leading to a boom for some retailers and bust for others.

With COVID-19 restrictions easing across much of the country, consumer anxiety has continued to moderate and spending behaviours are shifting.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index continued to grow, albeit slowing in September.

Pathway to profit: how Australia’s agri operators can boost their bottom line through smart thinking and easily achievable changes.

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index slowed a little from the record set in July.

NAB’s latest in-depth report reveals how Australians and the health system are coping with COVID-19.

Insights into Australia's Pharmacy sector post COVID-19 through the eyes of pharmacists.

Retail sales have been resilient recently, given restrictions on consumer activity and the large hit to the Australian economy.

Record year on year growth, boosted by Victoria.

Latest restrictions will hit Victoria’s economy hard, but COVID-19 has impacted all states.

Demand fundamentals limiting outlook for wool.

Our internal data point to a moderate decline in July, having stabilised at a surprisingly buoyant level after the rollercoaster earlier this year.

Martin Ross, Head of Transactional Banking at NAB, discusses the enhanced functionality of e-Payables with VISA industry experts.

Martin Ross, Head of Transactional Banking at NAB, discusses the enhanced functionality of e-Payables with VISA industry experts.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data returned to more moderate growth in June.

Three months of lockdown did more for remote healthcare than 10 years of discussion.

Our data mapping points to a moderate fall in June, following massive swings in March, April and May suggesting there has been some stabilisation in retail sales.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted slightly in May, after recording the most rapid growth in the series history in April.

Consumer anxiety fell in the June quarter despite very weak levels of economic and employment activity.

2020-21 winter crop prospects strong.

The Australian retail sector is facing extreme volatility amid a cycle of panic-buying, shutdown and now staged reopening.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index rapid growth accelerated again in April

Our data mapping suggests that the ABS retail trade measure will fall 5.3% in April.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that the rebound in online spend continued in March, with a large jump in sales.

No state or territory will be spared from COVID-19 economic fall-out.

NAB cashless retail sales data for March shows wild swings across industries in response to the Coronavirus crisis.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that there was a rebound in online spend in February.

Consumer anxiety and spending behaviours are changing rapidly in response to coronavirus fears and self-isolation.

Our forecast points to a substantial rise in the ABS retail sales measure in February (+0.6% m/m), but there is very little to celebrate.

Risks remain amid rapid rise in cattle prices.

Our data indicates that there was a contraction in online retail sales spend in January relative to December.

Our forecast points to a moderate rise in the ABS retail sales measure in January (+0.2% m/m), following an underwhelming end to 2019.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that, while slowing slightly, growth continued in December.

The cost of living remains the single biggest driver of consumer anxiety, despite low levels of economy-wide inflation. To understand why, we asked Australians to tell us which costs are adding most to their living expenses.

Our forecast points to a negative (-0.1% m/m) print for December, in line with our view that the strong November ABS print largely represented Christmas spending brought forward by expanded Black Friday sales.

Dairy dynamics: prices, drought and costs impacting dairy landscape.

NAB’s annual pulse check of life in Australia confirms it is, with Australians in strong agreement that our country remains a great place to live.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that volatility continues in sales, with a jump in November sales after contracting in October.

Our forecast points to a solid ABS retail headline figure for November – the strongest result since February this year if it transpires.

Agribusiness conditions flat despite strength of lamb and mutton.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that after two solid months of growth in August and September, online retail sales weakened in October.

After surviving multiple challenges to their market share in recent years, the nation’s wine producers have bounced back and look set to enjoy vintage times.

Our forecast points to a moderate improvement for retail in October, although this may be partly due to higher retail prices – as measured in our monthly business survey.

After a weak mid-year period, online retail sales continued to grow in September, albeit at a more moderate pace than the significant growth rate recorded in August.

What patients want – prepare to be surprised.

This month’s result points to a further improvement in retail sales, albeit from a low base.

Consumer anxiety rises as concerns over the economy grow.

Online retail rebounds after two weak months with the largest spend category Homewares and Appliances being a key contributor, although sales growth for this category has been relatively weak over the past year.

The Australian economy grew by 1.4% over the year to the June 2019, its weakest growth since 2009.

What do your patients think about vital issues like chronic illness prevention and mental health? This survey uncovers some surprising facts.

India’s economy needs a stimulatory kick start, with no guarantees of recovery.

This result points to a modest improvement in retail sales, albeit from a poor result last month.

Our third Agribusiness Banker Survey brings a somewhat more encouraging headline figure for agribusiness conditions, although conditions in NSW and to a lesser extent Queensland remain challenging. Spring rain is sorely needed to see an improvement.

Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates that sales growth was negative in July 2019, following on from an almost flat result in June.

We continue to see considerable disparities between retail sub-sectors. On a yearly basis, our data shows department stores, clothing and footwear going backwards, while household goods is barely in positive territory. Cafes, restaurants & takeaways are outperforming.

Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates that sales growth was negative in June 2019, following on from strong growth in May.

Could the aged care sector’s problems be drawing to a close, paving the way for consolidation and more capital investment?

New payments trends and technologies are opening the door to better business.

How digital tools can empower your patients to prevent and manage chronic disease.

Growth eased across all states and territories last year and early 2019, but the last few months have seen some improvement.

Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates a return to sales growth in May 2019, after considerable weakness in April.

Horticulture exports grow to rival Australian lamb and dairy.

Consumer anxiety fell for the second straight quarter in Q2 2019, led by a post-election fall in anxiety arising from government policy.

The ABS retail trade measure will see a modest (0.2% m/m) return to positive territory in May, indicating little or no bounce back from April’s disappointing result.

It’s possible to make money and a difference, if your business incorporates shared value into its strategy.

National agribusiness confidence rises despite tough conditions.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted -3.8% in April on a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis.

The next wave of digital marketing is voice. Is your business equipped to ride it?

The latest Investment Trends research shows the number of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) in Australia rose to a record 460,000 people, reasserting Australia as one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

Contrary to our forecast for the ABS print, our cashless retail sales index improved in April, gaining 1.2% compared to a 0.5% fall in March on a month on month basis.

Consumer anxiety moderated in Q1 2019 but remains above year earlier levels.

CSIRO’s Future of Health report details what’s needed to keep Australia’s health system efficient, equitable and affordable. Here, we examine four key themes for healthcare business owners.

Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.

The strong ABS print in February exceeded our expectations and indeed those of the market. It’s fair to say that we are sceptical whether such strong growth will continue.

Technology is changing the way accounting professionals work and the relationship they have with their clients. Cloud accounting business specialist Lielette Calleja shares the secrets of her own success and suggests ways to make the most of continuing transformation.

NAB launches new measure of agribusiness and regional performance in Australia

No longer a novelty, co-working and co-living spaces are transforming Australians’ housing choices and work arrangements.

Consumer anxiety reaches its highest level in over 3 years as slow income growth, high debt levels and weaker growth in household wealth weighed on households and their spending.

New research shows what Australians fear most for our nation’s future.

Global Dairy Trade auction results have seen some upside since December after a fairly weak run over much of 2018.

Total NAB customer spending grew 7.0% y/y in Q3 2018 - up from 5.6% in the previous quarter and 3.0% in the same quarter a year ago.

Harvest is now underway for 2018-19 winter crop, a season which will likely go down as one of the most mixed in years.

With the busy festive shopping period approaching and a shiny new $50 note in circulation, it’s important for business operators to be aware of the security features on Australian banknotes.

Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.

Anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns and how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

The business conditions index decreased 2pts to +13 in 2018 Q3, but remains well above its long-run average. Business confidence also fell, declining 4pts to +3 index points, a little below its historical average.

Solid headline growth masks divergent trends.

A commitment to relationships in Japan and Australia, respect for supply chain profitability and a focus on quality has seen Edwards Livestock double exports in less than a decade.

Growth at a multi-year high but set to slow as risks build.

We shine a light on the ongoing innovation efforts of Australian business.

A strong first half and easing downside risks.

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

Another decent outcome.

US economy still strong, but trade concerns won’t go away.

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.

Cost increases remain the single biggest challenge facing businesses within the health industry, with NAB’s latest report card showing that revenue pressures and compliance and regulation are among the biggest challenges facing the industry.

A survey of more than 100 Australian health practitioners found an interesting mix of contentment and concern. It appears practitioners are torn between mounting challenges and exciting opportunities.

The nation’s thoughts are with drought-afflicted farmers. As distressing as their current circumstances are, the encouraging news is that underlying economic conditions remain positive and will help them bounce back once the drought breaks.

Growth remains above trend, but risks a concern.

An unchanged economic outlook, but downside risks building.

The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.

The US economy grew strongly in Q2 2018, driven by a rebound in consumption and further solid business investment growth.

Business conditions ease slightly.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated in Q2. The Index fell 4 points to +17 but remains well above its long-term average (+3).

Aged care is a sector that’s been under the microscope for years. But while it has faced real challenges, its future now looks bright.

Trade risks to the fore.

Forecasts broadly unchanged but new risks to watch.

The business conditions index ticked up by 1pt to +15 index points in June, after easing in the previous month. The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

Business innovation levels rebound; leadership pivotal to growth.

Cracks starting to show in the upward global growth momentum.

Economy off to a strong start early in 2018

The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

GDP Growth rebounded in Q1, supported by the household and government sectors and export growth.

Total NAB customer spending grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 2018, up from 5.0% in the previous quarter and 2.0% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Joining innovation hubs, considering alternative funding options and building courage in investors are all paths to a greater entrepreneurial network in Australia, according to business leaders.

Australians rate restaurants, movies and travel as the most positive experiences their money can buy, according to new research from NAB.

Beef Australia is a wrap for another three years. The NAB Agribusiness team had an amazing week, catching up with customers and industry leaders, and learning a lot about where the industry’s heading.

Biometric authentication is being rolled out across various industries – and the possibilities feel endless.

Keen to export to Asia? Make sure you understand what’s involved and how best to prepare.

Business conditions at record levels.

With 1.2 million visitors injecting $10 billion into the Australian economy each year, and almost one third of our international students now coming from China, Chinese custom is big business. Alibaba Australia’s MD explains Alipay.

The skills you learn around the board table could have a big impact on the way you run your business. Here are six of the benefits.

Total NAB customer spending accelerated to 5.0% y/y in Q4 2017, from 3.0% y/y in the previous quarter with spending growth up across all metropolitan and regional areas.

Business conditions strong and businesses have their say on tax.

Australians remain positive about their lives today but fear the future.

From June 14 to June 25, I’ll be leading NAB’s 2018 Agribusiness Japan Tour. If your business involves cattle farming, sheep farming or horticulture and you’re interested in the connections, insight and strategies being used to succeed in Asian markets, I encourage you to join me.

Overall sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) rose 4 points to +21 in Q1.

Beef producers are outperforming other industries in adding to Farm Management Deposits (FMDs), with the national balance expected to break another record this financial year.

Hear from Khan Horne, GM Agribusiness, NAB about what he is seeing across the beef sector, what to expect during Beef Australia 2018, and how NAB is supporting the industry generally and on location at Rockhampton – 6-12 May.

First shots fired in the US-China trade war.

Still see growth momentum improving.

Business conditions come off the boil, but still hot.

The trends reshaping health and the future implications for the Australian marketplace.

The trends reshaping health and the future implications for the Australian marketplace.

Sabre rattling ahead of a potential trade war?

Gradually improving profile intact, despite a weak 2017

The business conditions index moved 3pts higher to +21 index points. This is a record high since the monthly survey commenced in March 1997, although the same measure in NAB’s quarterly survey reached this level in 1994.

Australia recorded subdued economic growth in Q4, with the detail painting a mixed picture.

The award-winning Arnhem Land Progress Aboriginal Corporation has created jobs in some of Australia’s most isolated communities. CEO Alastair King explains how ALPA is creating the jobs that are key to building successful communities in remote locations.

Rising demand, shrinking resources, vulnerable clients – we can’t keep ignoring the challenging business of healthcare for the elderly.

Strong improvement in SME business conditions in Q4 2017, while confidence retreated a touch.