Total spending was down 0.3% in January 2025


This month we delve into the data on recent sales event days, the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend, and compare this to the traditional peak retail trade four day trading period immediately prior to Christmas day.
NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster commented:
Beyond the regular analysis, this month we delve into the data on recent sales event days, the Black Friday to Cyber Monday (BF-CM) weekend, and compare this to the traditional peak retail trade four day trading period immediately prior to Christmas day. Firstly, it is worth noting that over recent years key retailers have listed sales offers available, days or in some instances, weeks before the event date. For simplicity, consistency, and comparability, our analysis for this exercise includes only the four specific dates of the events. Overall, we observed the continued sales growth during the period of the Black Friday event, particularly for broader consumer spend and retail trade. While online retail was also up compared to the year prior, the rate was slower, especially given base effects of a rapid 2023 event. In 2024, over 35% of all retail trade that occurred during these four days was conducted online. This is up markedly over the period we have been monitoring the series. For example, in 2012 it was about 9%, and as recently as 2022, it was just over 25%.
There is some conjecture as to how the BF-CM trading period compares to the retail trade period around Christmas, with the composition of sales a key part of the discussion. From what we observe in the data, for broad retail trade, instore and online combined, sales value for the BF-CM weekend represented close to 94% of the 4 day pre-Christmas lead up period in 2024. The same metric for 2012 was circa 63% of sales, highlighting the increasing importance of these days for retail trade. For the online component, BF-CM is clearly dominant, with 2.4 times the sales value relative to the comparable online sales period of the 4 days pre-Christmas. This is perhaps unsurprising as November retail sales for online in recent years have typically been about 30% higher than the average monthly sales for the rest of the year, and December only about 8% higher. This fits with our observations of the online monthly seasonal pattern.
We have also observed that average transaction values increased for categories more associated with the BF-CM sales event, especially homewares and electrical, and more recently car parts related, whereas other categories like supermarkets and specialised food have trended lower.
Get all the insights in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index (December 2024)
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