Author

Ray Attrill

“Ray has 30 years experience as an economist and market strategist, obtained in roles working in London, Sydney and New York.”

Ray Attrill is Head of FX Strategy within the Fixed income, Currencies and Commodities division of National Australia Bank.

In this role, he advises the bank’s dealing rooms and institutional and corporate clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.

Ray has 30 years experience as an economist and market strategist, obtained in roles working in London, Sydney and New York. Prior to joining NAB in 2012, he held a similar role at BNP Paribas, based in New York.

He previously amassed considerable experience in research and strategy, being a joint founding partner for 4CAST limited, a leading independent economic and financial market research company. Prior to that, he worked for many years in senior roles at MMS International, also a leading on-line market research provider.

He holds both Master and Bachelor of Science degrees in economics from the London School of Economics.

Recently Published Articles

The AUD in October 2023

The AUD in October 2023

1 November 2023

Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.

The AUD in October 2023
Markets Today – Closing Time

Markets Today – Closing Time

29 September 2023

Todays Podcast UK gilts lead global bond yields higher, Italy and France also up a lot, budget news hurts Treasuries recoil ~10bps from new (4.685%) high ahead of expected government shutdown tomorrow This plus reduced UAW pay demands, news of possible Xi-Biden meet, boosts US equity sentiment, AUD/USD recovers more than 1% of recent losses […]

Markets Today – Closing Time
Markets Today – The Price You Pay

Markets Today – The Price You Pay

27 September 2023

US equity and FX markets have for once pushed the bond market vigilantes out of the spotlight, albeit the weakness in stocks and strength in the USD doubtless owes something to the lagged impact of the earlier run up in Treasury yields to post 2007 highs

Markets Today – The Price You Pay
Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)

Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)

25 September 2023

The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come.

Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)
Markets Today – The Best

Markets Today – The Best

4 September 2023

Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried

Markets Today – The Best
The AUD in August 2023

The AUD in August 2023

1 September 2023

The AUD have an ‘average’ August in terms of its monthly hi-lo range, albeit it fell to a near 10-month beneath 64 cents

The AUD in August 2023
The AUD in May 2023

The AUD in May 2023

1 June 2023

The AUD fell below 65 cents in May, in doing so re-establishing a more ‘normal’ monthly trading range after two months of highly compressed volatility.

The AUD in May 2023
The AUD in April 2023

The AUD in April 2023

1 May 2023

After reducing to just a 2.2 cents range in March, April’s AUD/USD range was little different – 2.3 cents

The AUD in April 2023
Markets Today – Shake it up

Markets Today – Shake it up

20 April 2023

The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations

Markets Today – Shake it up
Markets Today – Stick or Twist

Markets Today – Stick or Twist

4 April 2023

Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today

Markets Today – Stick or Twist
The AUD in March 2023

The AUD in March 2023

3 April 2023

Following two months of well above-average ranges, the AUD/USD range reduced to just 2.2 cents in March, though the currency did hit a 4-month low of 0.6565.

The AUD in March 2023
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

20 March 2023

A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
Markets Today: I Feel Better

Markets Today: I Feel Better

6 March 2023

The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.

Markets Today: I Feel Better
Markets Today: (No) Resistance

Markets Today: (No) Resistance

3 March 2023

The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.

Markets Today: (No) Resistance
The AUD in February 2023

The AUD in February 2023

1 March 2023

AUD performance in February was an almost exact mirror image of January, AUD/USD trading back down to near 67 cents from above 0.71 cents, having risen from sub-0.67 to above 0.71 in January.

The AUD in February 2023
Markets Today: Early year optimism

Markets Today: Early year optimism

11 January 2023

Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.

Markets Today: Early year optimism
The AUD in December 2022

The AUD in December 2022

3 January 2023

AUD/USD ended Dec 2022 much as it started. For 2022 overall, AUD/USD lost 6.2% which was the the second biggest annual range of the past decade, exceeded only in the 2020 first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The AUD in December 2022
The AUD in November 2022

The AUD in November 2022

1 December 2022

The AUD ended the month in the ascendency, boosted by a less hawkish than feared Fed Chair Powell speech, forcing a broad USD retreat.

The AUD in November 2022
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?

Markets Today: Oil, more or less?

22 November 2022

Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.

Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
The AUD in October 2022

The AUD in October 2022

1 November 2022

Australia specific influences on AUD once again played second fiddle to broader USD volatility and swings in risk sentiment.

The AUD in October 2022
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in

MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in

24 October 2022

Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.

MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise

Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise

5 October 2022

Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.

Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
The AUD in September 2022

The AUD in September 2022

4 October 2022

The AUD/USD high of 0.6916 came on the 13th and the low of 0.6363 on the 29th (last day of the month).

The AUD in September 2022
Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet

14 September 2022

Today’s podcast Overview Rumours of inflation’s demise much exaggerated US CPI shocks to the upside: stocks, bonds take fright USD bounces back, AUD and NZD both down by more than 2% Next week’s Fed debate now seen to be between 75 and 100bps (83bps priced) German ZEW survey readings slumps while US NFIB Business Optimism […]

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet
MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

6 September 2022

Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.

MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
The AUD in August 2022

The AUD in August 2022

2 September 2022

The AUD/USD spent August oscillating around the 70 US cents mark but spent much more time below than above.

The AUD in August 2022
Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

8 August 2022

An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.

Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
The AUD in June 2022

The AUD in June 2022

1 July 2022

The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.7170, made a high of 0.7283 on June 3 and fell to its monthly low of 0.6851 on June 15.

The AUD in June 2022
Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial

10 June 2022

Announcing the end of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as of July 1, the ECB also pre-announced a 25bps rise in interest rates out of its July meeting with a further rise planned out of the Sept meeting.

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial
The AUD in May 2022

The AUD in May 2022

1 June 2022

AUD/USD hit a near two-year low of 0.6829 on May 13 after hitting its highest May prints earlier in the month (0.7266, seen on both May 4 and 5).

The AUD in May 2022
The AUD in February 2022

The AUD in February 2022

2 March 2022

Despite being the month when Russia invaded Ukraine, the high-low range in AUD/USD was less than in January.

The AUD in February 2022
The AUD in January 2022

The AUD in January 2022

2 February 2022

It was an eventful start to the year, AUD/USD tracing out a range from a high of 0.7314 (Jan 13) to a low of 0.6965 (Jan 30)

The AUD in January 2022
The AUD in December 2021

The AUD in December 2021

11 January 2022

AUD/USD made its low point for the year on Dec.3 at 0.6993 – the pair’s only foray below 0.7000 in 2021.

The AUD in December 2021
Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

2 December 2021

The US CDC has just identified the first case of Omicron in the United States – joining the UK, Switzerland and Brazil overnight – at a time when US infection rates of the delta variant had already started creeping back up.

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
The AUD in November 2021

The AUD in November 2021

1 December 2021

The overwhelming negative influence late in the month was the emergence of the Omicron covid-19 variant and doubts over the efficacy of existing vaccines against this strain and all that might imply for the global economic re-opening process.

The AUD in November 2021
Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

30 November 2021

Global markets have seen a modest retracement of many of last Friday’s violent ‘risk-off’ moves, with equities higher in Europe, so too US government yields up, as too is oil, but in all cases to nowhere near Friday’s closing levels.

Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
Markets Today: Have a little faith

Markets Today: Have a little faith

12 November 2021

The US has been out for Veterans Day, though stock markets have been open and have recouped a little of their pre and post US CPI losses

Markets Today: Have a little faith
Markets Today: Tighter but taking time

Markets Today: Tighter but taking time

4 November 2021

No surprises from the FOMC in its formal policy pronouncement, the Fed announcing a November start to the QE tapering process at the as-expected pace of $15bn per month.

Markets Today: Tighter but taking time
The AUD in October 2021

The AUD in October 2021

1 November 2021

The RBA’s failure to buy the bond in the days following the Q3 CPI report convinced the market the YCC target at least in current form, was set to be formally abandoned out of the 2 November Board meeting.

The AUD in October 2021
Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal

Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal

25 October 2021

Friday’s main economic events, namely the ‘flash’ PMIs, tell us that there is little reason to fear stagnation, for the time being at least, given still elevated levels for all readings across Europe and the US.

Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal
Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?

Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?

7 October 2021

Words from politicians of various stripes have gone a little way to alleviating two of the major concerns currently plaguing global markets, namely the ongoing energy crisis centred on Europe and the looming deadline for lifting or scrapping the US debt ceiling

Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?
The AUD in September 2021

The AUD in September 2021

1 October 2021

Forces acting on the AUD (and other commodity linked currencies) independent of USD strength in September were largely China related.

The AUD in September 2021
Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears

21 September 2021

A torrid day for Hong Kong’s hang Seng index yesterday, driven by sharp fall in property sector stocks and led by a 16% fall in Evergrande ahead of Thursday’s bond coupon payment day, spilled over to the global arena on Monday with equities down sharply, bond yields lower and safe haven currencies in the ascendancy.

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears
Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks

Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks

7 September 2021

US markets being out for the Labor Day holiday hasn’t prevented global equity markets forging ahead. The US dollar has recouped a little of its (further) losses seen post last Friday’s US payrolls report and since AUD and NZD have been the two biggest beneficiaries of USD slippage of late, no great surprise they have lost a little more than most other currencies overnight.

Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks
Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

23 August 2021

Mid-morning in Friday’s US trading day, Bob Kaplan said he may rethink his call for the Fed to quickly start to taper its $120 billion per month in bond purchases if it looks like the spread of the coronavirus delta variant is slowing economic growth. This didn’t have a big impact on bonds, but we can date the start of the run-up in US equity indices and a pull back in the USD to his comments hitting the screens, testament to the ongoing sensitivity the currency and risk markets are exhibiting to the question of when QE tapering starts.

Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Markets Today: Central banks holding back

Markets Today: Central banks holding back

19 August 2021

Following a fair amount of volatility in the immediate wake of the FOMC Minutes US equities are lower, bond yields and the USD are lower, the latter allowing the AUD some relief after posting a new year-to-date low of 0.7229 in the run up to the Minutes, but the gains are already proving hard to hold.

Markets Today: Central banks holding back
Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

17 August 2021

The much weaker than expected China data, lack of encouraging covid news over the weekend – no more so than in Australia – and the news out of Afghanistan which adds another dimension to ever-present geopolitical concerns (in this case, international terrorism) perennially cited as a risk to positive market sentiment – haven’t prevented the S&P 500 closing at a new record high.

Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
Markets Today:  On the road to nowhere

Markets Today: On the road to nowhere

13 August 2021

Quiet night but S&P 500 ekes out a third successive record daily close. Stronger than expected US PPI a reminder that supply chain disruptions are still with us.

Markets Today:  On the road to nowhere
The AUD in July 2021

The AUD in July 2021

2 August 2021

The AUD failed to benefit from the generally weaker USD, in contrast to all other major currencies which rose during the last week of July. From mid-month, a very sharp fall-back in iron ore prices, albeit a commodity with a very fickle and sometimes non-existent short term relationship with the AUD, drew attention

The AUD in July 2021
Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors

Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors

28 July 2021

For the first time, we are now seeing contagion from the sell-off in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese shares, to global markets – the NASDAQ in particular, ending the day down 1.2% in front of the earnings results from Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.

Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors
The AUD in February 2021

The AUD in February 2021

1 March 2021

After what in the end turned out to be a month of consolidation for the AUD in January, with a monthly range of a little over two cents and the close only about half a cent lower than the open, February proved to be a much more volatile month.

The AUD in February 2021
The AUD in December 2020

The AUD in December 2020

11 January 2021

A month ago, we remarked that it was hard to recall a month where AUD/USD made its low point on the first trading day of the month and its high on the last, as was the case in November.

The AUD in December 2020
Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in

Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in

22 December 2020

You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine.

Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in
The AUD in November 2020

The AUD in November 2020

2 December 2020

It’s hard to recall a month when AUD/USD made its low point on the first trading day of the month and its high on the last.

The AUD in November 2020
Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore

Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore

10 November 2020

The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate.

Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore
The AUD in October 2020

The AUD in October 2020

2 November 2020

AUD/USD traded a more subdued range in October than in September (less than 2 ½ cents versus more than 4 cents in September).

The AUD in October 2020
Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID

Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID

6 October 2020

As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to the US economy.

Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID
Markets Today: One big October surprise

Markets Today: One big October surprise

5 October 2020

Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White House as soon as today. So, do the markets take back some of their risk concerns, and focus on the positives of the situation?

Markets Today: One big October surprise
Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs

Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs

11 August 2020

The latest JOLTs (job openings) showed there are 5.9 million jobs available, more than expected, but it didn’t give markets any kick.

Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs
The AUD in June 2020

The AUD in June 2020

10 July 2020

Intra-month range extremes for AUD/USD in June came in the first ten days of the month.

The AUD in June 2020
Markets Today: Markets torn

Markets Today: Markets torn

22 June 2020

Last week was a choppy week as markets tried to balance out positive economic news against rising concerns about COVID-19 infections.

Markets Today: Markets torn
Markets Today: investors run for cover

Markets Today: investors run for cover

12 June 2020

There’s been a swift move to bonds and safe haven currencies since the Fed’s message yesterday that it would take a couple of years at least for life to return to normal.

Markets Today: investors run for cover
The AUD in March 2020

The AUD in March 2020

1 April 2020

The AUD/USD collapsed in March to its lowest levels since 2003. Read our summary of what impacted the course of the AUD/USD during the month.

The AUD in March 2020
The AUD in February 2020

The AUD in February 2020

5 March 2020

Intensification of concerns about the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus culminated in new 11-year lows for AUD/USD at 0.6435 on the last day of the month.

The AUD in February 2020
Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits

Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits

14 February 2020

The markets slipped momentarily into risk-off as the number of COVID-19 infections jumped in volume, but concern slipped back a little as it became clear that the way cases were being measured had changed.

Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits
Markets Today: Better

Markets Today: Better

8 January 2020

It’s been a particularly bad 24 hours for the AUD (if you aren’t an Australian exporter, that is).

Markets Today: Better
Markets Today: Tariffs bite

Markets Today: Tariffs bite

10 July 2019

Ray Attrill explains how the latest small business survey data in the US shows signs that tariffs on Chinese imports might be starting to make their mark.

Markets Today: Tariffs bite
Markets Today: After the Fed

Markets Today: After the Fed

21 June 2019

The market continues to respond to the Dovish Fed statement yesterday with a rally in US equities, falls in Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar.

Markets Today: After the Fed
Markets Today: Party for two

Markets Today: Party for two

29 May 2019

Consumer confidence in the US hit a six month high, yet there’s a continued flight to bonds, pushing Treasury yields to the lowest level since September 2017.

Markets Today: Party for two
Markets Today: Cold war

Markets Today: Cold war

24 May 2019

There have been significant moves overnight, with the US dollar losing ground against the Yen and Swiss Franc.

Markets Today: Cold war
Strategic FX update: May 2019

Strategic FX update: May 2019

21 May 2019

Join NAB's Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill as he sits down with Phil Dobbie to discuss his outlook for the FX market.

Strategic FX update: May 2019
Strategic FX update: April 2019

Strategic FX update: April 2019

17 April 2019

Join NAB's Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill as he sits down with Phil Dobbie to discuss the recent release of NAB's updated FX forecasts.

Strategic FX update: April 2019
Markets Today: Soft parade

Markets Today: Soft parade

2 April 2019

There was continued optimism in the markets overnight with more strong data reads from China and the US.

Markets Today: Soft parade
Markets Today: The dollar is dying

Markets Today: The dollar is dying

8 January 2019

Positive sentiment in the US on Friday and in the APAC session yesterday has carried through into overnight markets notwithstanding a downside surprise in the US non-manufacturing ISM report.

Markets Today: The dollar is dying
Markets Today: Good things come in threes

Markets Today: Good things come in threes

7 January 2019

It was far from a quiet Christmas period, with volatility driven by data, trade concerns, a government shutdown and a very different attitude coming from the US Fed.

Markets Today: Good things come in threes
Markets Today: 2018 in Review

Markets Today: 2018 in Review

24 December 2018

2018 has been a year of surprises. In the final podcast for the year, the team discuss the year that was and what to expect in 2019.

Markets Today: 2018 in Review
Markets Today: These foolish things

Markets Today: These foolish things

13 December 2018

US equities have had a shot in the arm following a Wall Street Journal report that China might open up access to their domestic markets for foreign companies.

Markets Today: These foolish things
Markets Today: Burning down the house

Markets Today: Burning down the house

20 November 2018

US stocks take a big hit. The Aussie and New Zealand dollars seem to have come off the worst out of the major currencies with a rise in uncertainty, whereas Sterling has risen.

Markets Today: Burning down the house
Markets Today: Pipes of peace

Markets Today: Pipes of peace

20 August 2018

Speculation the US and China will strike a deal on trade around November has given markets some reason for optimism.

Markets Today: Pipes of peace
Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain

Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain

11 July 2018

The next battle for Theresa May is in Brussels – will the EU accept her proposal, at least as a starting point? Plus, US ‘poised’ to release $200bn China tariff list, puncturing risk-positive offshore sentiment.

Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain
The AUD in June & FY 17-18

The AUD in June & FY 17-18

10 July 2018

In June, the AUD/USD saw a new year-to-date low – a level last seen in May 2017 | Over the fiscal year the AUD/US traded between a high of 0.8136 and a low of 0.7311.

The AUD in June & FY 17-18
Markets Today: Anything you can do

Markets Today: Anything you can do

18 June 2018

Trade talks between the US and China took a turn for the worse at the end of last week, with the Trump administration issuing a list of $50 billion worth of products that would be hit with a 25 percent tariff.

Markets Today: Anything you can do
Markets Today: Strong enough

Markets Today: Strong enough

4 June 2018

After the excitement of Parmageddon last week, followed by the sudden enforcement of steel and aluminium tariffs on Trump’s supposed allies, the markets can at last look forward to a more traditional week where data and central bank policy drives the agenda.

Markets Today: Strong enough
Markets Today: Truce

Markets Today: Truce

21 May 2018

Steven Mnuchin says the trade war with China is on-hold, for now, after the agreement that will see China supposedly buying more from the US, but not the reported extra $200 billion worth.

Markets Today: Truce
Markets Today: Cautious Man

Markets Today: Cautious Man

27 April 2018

The Euro and European bond yields took a blow today as the European Central Bank failed to commit to a timetable for the ending of quantitative easing.

Markets Today: Cautious Man
Markets Today: High Hopes

Markets Today: High Hopes

16 April 2018

Will the Syria missile strikes hit the markets today. @NAB’s Ray Attrill says not on today’s edition of #TheMorningCall podcast

Markets Today: High Hopes
Markets Today: Big Love

Markets Today: Big Love

11 April 2018

US equities and commodity currencies boosted by President Xi’s calming talk overnight – but @NAB’s Ray Attrill warns we can continue to expect periodic risk off sentiment.

Markets Today: Big Love
Markets Today: Every Day is a Winding Road

Markets Today: Every Day is a Winding Road

10 April 2018

US shares back up as trade war fears ease again, even though China threatens currency devaluation as a tool against tariffs. @NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil Dobbie on today’s Morning Call podcast.

Markets Today: Every Day is a Winding Road
Markets Today: Beast of Burden

Markets Today: Beast of Burden

6 April 2018

On #TheMorningCall from @NAB, the US dollar recovers a little and stocks rise as investors hope tariff talk is more rhetoric than action. Plus, payroll figures tonight.

Markets Today: Beast of Burden
Markets Today: Wrecking Ball

Markets Today: Wrecking Ball

26 March 2018

Markets took a hit on Friday - what caused it and will it continue today? Phil Dobbie asks NAB's Ray Attrill if its trade wars, spending, staff changes or old fashioned over-valuation?

Markets Today: Wrecking Ball
Markets Today: 22 March 2018

Markets Today: 22 March 2018

22 March 2018

It will be no surprise that the Fed has lifted interest rates this morning. Perhaps the tone was more hawkish than expected in Jay Powell’s first meeting as Fed chair.

Markets Today: 22 March 2018
AUD/GBP Forecast

AUD/GBP Forecast

13 March 2018

NAB’s positive view of GBP and forecast decline in AUD/GBP is in the immediate term.

AUD/GBP Forecast
Markets Today: 1 March 2018

Markets Today: 1 March 2018

1 March 2018

A Brexit breakdown pummels the pound – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we can expect the pound to fall further as the UK & EU draw lines in the sand.

Markets Today: 1 March 2018
Markets Today: 26 February 2018

Markets Today: 26 February 2018

26 February 2018

Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what impact the news could have on the markets this week, after a rally on equities at the end of last week.

Markets Today: 26 February 2018
Markets Today: Meddle

Markets Today: Meddle

19 February 2018

US stocks retreat on Russia meddling, steel/aluminium tariff reports, but still make it ‘6 from 6’ up days.

Markets Today: Meddle
Markets Today:  Love Resurrection

Markets Today: Love Resurrection

14 February 2018

The US dollar is on the slide again. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill the volatility remains ahead of US CPI figures tonight.

Markets Today:  Love Resurrection
Markets Today: Devil inside

Markets Today: Devil inside

5 February 2018

The jump in US annual average hourly earnings in January, to 2.9% from an upwards revised 2.7% in December, stole the limelight on Friday albeit there were a number of extenuating circumstances suggesting the number shouldn’t be taken completely at face value.

Markets Today: Devil inside
Markets Today: 31 January 2018

Markets Today: 31 January 2018

31 January 2018

US stocks are weaker for a second day running, the S&P down a little 1% heading into the close, and the VIX is up to 15 from 11 at the end of last week.

Markets Today: 31 January 2018
Markets Today: Everything is Awesome

Markets Today: Everything is Awesome

23 January 2018

A full Senate vote to ratify the deal struck a few hours ago to re-open the US government is scheduled for 4:30pm Washington time (8:30am AEDT).

Markets Today: Everything is Awesome
Markets Today: Closedown

Markets Today: Closedown

22 January 2018

The US Senate on Friday failed to muster the 60 votes necessary to pass a stop-gap funding measure that would have averted the partial government shutdown that instead went into effect at one minute past midnight on Friday.

Markets Today: Closedown
Markets Today: Hold On

Markets Today: Hold On

18 January 2018

The Bank of Canada delivered on an almost universal expectation for a 25-point rate hike last night.

Markets Today: Hold On
Markets Today: Zombie

Markets Today: Zombie

16 January 2018

Zombie was one of the Cranberries’ biggest hits and though written about what O’Riordan described as the seemingly interminable fight for Irish independence, it’s a fitting description of the US dollar, which more and more resembles a dead man walking.

Markets Today: Zombie
Markets Today: Where Is The Love?

Markets Today: Where Is The Love?

15 January 2018

Friday was a case of another day, another US dollar slide (plus new record closing highs for both the S&P500 and NASDAQ, but that almost goes without saying these days).

Markets Today: Where Is The Love?
Markets Today: All I Want(ed) For Christmas

Markets Today: All I Want(ed) For Christmas

18 December 2017

Stocks, the US dollar and Treasury yields all rose in afternoon NY trade Friday, seemingly in anticipation of Congressional tax writers announcing a reconciled tax plan capable of being voted on by both Houses this week.

Markets Today: All I Want(ed) For Christmas
Markets Today: The Waiting

Markets Today: The Waiting

8 December 2017

Tom Petty described The Waiting as a song about waiting for your dreams and not knowing if they will come true.

Markets Today: The Waiting
Markets Today: Russian Roulette

Markets Today: Russian Roulette

4 December 2017

My colleague and Markets Today co-conspirator Tapas Strickland has to date had a monopoly on Rhianna songs, but since he’s just arrived at NAB in London to spend time gaining international experience, I figure the Barbadian songstress catalogue is now fair game for use by the rest of us (not that there are many of her songs left to choose from).

Markets Today: Russian Roulette
Markets Today: Who Are You?

Markets Today: Who Are You?

28 November 2017

A relatively quiet start to the week following a relatively quiet holiday-impacted end to the last one.

Markets Today: Who Are You?
Markets Today: Risky Business

Markets Today: Risky Business

27 November 2017

Tangerine Dream, the German electronic music group, provided the soundtrack for Risky Business, the 1983 Romantic Comedy starring Tom Cruise and Rebecca de Mornay. The group have produced over 100 albums since forming in 1967.

Markets Today: Risky Business
Markets Today:  Get Back Up

Markets Today: Get Back Up

22 November 2017

A rather uninspired song title (from a band whose name might not make it through the filters) from your somewhat sleep-deprived scribe (Lorde concert at the Opera House on a school-night, and at my age).

Markets Today:  Get Back Up
Markets Today: Talk of the Town

Markets Today: Talk of the Town

14 November 2017

Frankfurt is the town and the great and the good of the global central banking fraternity will be the doing the talking later today at an ECB sponsored conference on central bank communication.

Markets Today: Talk of the Town
Markets Today: Jive Talkin’

Markets Today: Jive Talkin’

2 November 2017

Jive Talking: “To speak in an exaggerated, teasing, or misleading way”. I can’t believe we haven’t used this Bee Gees classic once in the year that has almost passed since the result of a certain election.

Markets Today: Jive Talkin’
Markets Today: Barcelona

Markets Today: Barcelona

30 October 2017

Two factors drove much of Friday’s offshore market activity. One was a Bloomberg source report suggesting that President Trump was inclined to nominate Jerome (‘Jay’) Powell to be the new Fed chair.

Markets Today: Barcelona
Markets Today: Milk it

Markets Today: Milk it

19 October 2017

Milk It is from Nirvana’s third album ‘In Utero’ and starts with the line ‘I am my own parasite, I don't need a host to live’. It references Kurt Cobain’s frustration with fame and drug addiction.

Markets Today: Milk it
Markets Today: Six Degrees of Separation

Markets Today: Six Degrees of Separation

16 October 2017

It's now six from seven in terms of core US CPI undershooting expectations (six months at 0.1% including Friday’s September print and just one at the 0.2% consensus estimate that has prevailed for each of these seven months).

Markets Today: Six Degrees of Separation
Markets Today: Beautiful Noise

Markets Today: Beautiful Noise

9 October 2017

Neil Diamonds’ Beautiful Noise was the working title for today’s missive following the latest US payrolls s report on Friday.

Markets Today: Beautiful Noise
Markets Today: Waiting

Markets Today: Waiting

4 October 2017

The challenge meted out by some of my colleagues yesterday (many of whom are probably still in bed) was to incorporate as many songs from the now late great Tom Petty into this daily missive.

Markets Today: Waiting
Markets Today: Dear Prudence

Markets Today: Dear Prudence

27 September 2017

Fed chair Janet Yellen spoke last night and opined that it would be ‘Imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation hits 2%’

Markets Today: Dear Prudence
Markets Today: Hung Up

Markets Today: Hung Up

25 September 2017

Hung parliaments on current voting tallies in general elections in New Zealand on Saturday and Germany on Sunday have taken bites out of the NZD and EUR at Monday’s market re-open.

Markets Today: Hung Up
Markets Today: Rocket Man

Markets Today: Rocket Man

20 September 2017

US President Trump’s 40 minute address to the UN, in which he described N. Korea leader Kim Jong UN as “Rocket man on a suicide mission for himself and his regime” has given us a (predictable) song title but frankly not much else.

Markets Today: Rocket Man
Markets Today: Senses Working Overtime

Markets Today: Senses Working Overtime

19 September 2017

GBP and CAD pull back on latest BoC and BoE utterances, helping USD move ahead again aided too by modestly higher US Treasury yields (10s +2bps to 2.23%). This pulls AUD comfortably back below 0.80. It has already traded - intra-day - through last week’s 0.7956 low.

Markets Today: Senses Working Overtime
Markets Today: Oranges and Lemons

Markets Today: Oranges and Lemons

6 September 2017

The ancient English nursery rhyme was used allegorically in George Orwell’s 1984 to foreshadow the death of true knowledge (and so the advent of fake news, some 50 years before the Simpsons in 2001 foretold of Donald Trump’s ascendency to the US Presidency).

Markets Today: Oranges and Lemons
Markets Today: It’s oh so quiet

Markets Today: It’s oh so quiet

8 August 2017

It’s been a slow start to the week, not just because of yesterday’s NSW bank holiday (it’s not exactly the centre of the universe is it, much as some of us might like to believe otherwise?).

Markets Today: It’s oh so quiet
Markets Today: Fed Up

Markets Today: Fed Up

7 August 2017

DJ Khaled didn’t have the folks in Washington’s Eccles Building in mind when he composed ‘Fed Up’ in 2009, but December 2017 Fed rate hike pricing pushed up from around 40% to 50% on Friday.

Markets Today: Fed Up
Markets Today: Stay

Markets Today: Stay

20 July 2017

Markets have largely paused for breath overnight, with US Treasury yields flat-lining and the US dollar ever so slightly firmer.

Markets Today: Stay
Markets Today: On the Wings of a Dove (really?)

Markets Today: On the Wings of a Dove (really?)

13 July 2017

The Canadian dollar is the standout winner in FX markets after the Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% to 0.75% as widely expected but didn’t deliver the ‘dovish hike’ some were expecting.

Markets Today: On the Wings of a Dove (really?)
Markets Today: Love Plus One

Markets Today: Love Plus One

10 July 2017

In German chancellor Angela Merkel’s words, the G20 accord issued on Saturday night didn’t even attempt to paper over the differences between the United States and the other 19 G20 members.

Markets Today: Love Plus One
Markets Today: It Only Takes A Minute

Markets Today: It Only Takes A Minute

6 July 2017

The AUD is a little softer this morning, thanks largely to comments from RBA Board member Ian Harper in a Dow Jones interview published around 7pm last night.

Markets Today: It Only Takes A Minute
Markets Today: Blame Canada

Markets Today: Blame Canada

26 June 2017

The late great Robin Williams sang this theme song to the 1999 South Park movie at the Academy Awards, penned by Matt Stone and Trey Parker, in which Sheila blames Canada for the kids’ bad language (and more besides) after watching the expletive-ridden Canadian movie Terrence and Phillip: (expletive deleted) of Fire.

Markets Today: Blame Canada
Markets Today: Mayday

Markets Today: Mayday

13 June 2017

US bond markets have been treading water in front of the two day FOMC meeting that commences tonight, 10s stuck around 2.2%, while the Australian dollar has been spent most of its time meandering within a narrow 0.7420-0.7445 range.

Markets Today: Mayday
Markets Today: Life’s a gas

Markets Today: Life’s a gas

9 June 2017

The T.Rex 1971 classic is doubtless before most readers’ time but not this one unfortunately, growing up with the first (and still the best) U.K. glam-rockers.

Markets Today: Life’s a gas
Markets Today: I can’t stand up for falling down

Markets Today: I can’t stand up for falling down

15 May 2017

Almost certainly neither Sam and Dave nor Elvis Costello had inflation or inflation expectations in mind when the recorded this track, though for the record US CPI was running a little shy of3% when Sam and Dave first recorded the song in 1967, and over 20% in the UK when Elvis Costello covered it in 1980.

Markets Today: I can’t stand up for falling down
Markets Today: “Let’s Love France”

Markets Today: “Let’s Love France”

8 May 2017

There wasn’t a whole lot of market movement on Friday in the wake of the April US employment report showing a 211k rise in non-farm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.5%.

Markets Today: “Let’s Love France”
Markets Today: The Price You Pay

Markets Today: The Price You Pay

1 May 2017

News of North Korea conducting another (apparently failed) ballistic missile test crossed the wires about 30 minutes prior to the NY close.

Markets Today: The Price You Pay
Markets Today: Talk is cheap

Markets Today: Talk is cheap

18 April 2017

Plenty of news, both economic and geopolitical, since we broke for Easter, the net market impact of which has frankly been quite modest.

Markets Today: Talk is cheap
Markets Today: Hello Friday

Markets Today: Hello Friday

7 April 2017

We haven’t seen a whole lot of market price action overnight, with the US dollar marginally higher, as are US bonds yields but by less than one basis point.

Markets Today: Hello Friday
Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.

Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.

20 March 2017

R.I.P. Chuck Berry. And R.I.P. anti-protectionism, after the weekend G20 meeting communique omitted reference to avoiding protectionism, reflecting the new reality of the USA’s position

Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.
Markets Today: All Cried Out

Markets Today: All Cried Out

6 March 2017

Fed chair Janet Yellen sang from the same script as her FOMC colleagues before her on Friday and confirmed that ‘fairly soon’ really does means March. Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer later chimed in with “If there has been a conscious effort” to boost expectations of a rate rise, “I’m about to join it”.

Markets Today: All Cried Out
Markets Today: Forward March

Markets Today: Forward March

2 March 2017

Something of a return to the good old days in the last 24 hours, when an infolding economic calendar and rhetoric from Fed officials counted for more than what the leader of the free world had to say.

Markets Today: Forward March
Markets Today: Home on the range

Markets Today: Home on the range

27 February 2017

Another quiet end to a quiet week but with the U.S. dollar grinding out small gains despite further slippage in US bond yields (10s -6bps) and a fairly flat U.S. stock market (albeit new record closing highs for the S&P and the Dow).

Markets Today: Home on the range
Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing

Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing

20 February 2017

Just over a week ago, President Trump promised a ‘phenomenal’ tax announcement in 2-3 weeks, so as the clock ticks down to some form of announcement, market inertia is set to reign.

Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing
Markets Today: Crawling back to you

Markets Today: Crawling back to you

14 February 2017

The message in American band Daughtry’s 2011 song later covered (with aplomb) by the Arctic Monkeys is, according to the writer, “Your significant other is in the right and just like she said it would happen, you come crawling back”

Markets Today: Crawling back to you
Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)

Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)

6 February 2017

A bit of early 19th century opera to kick off the week (don’t fret, I’m sure we’ll be back in rock & roll mode for the rest of the week).

Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)
Markets Today: Little Red Rooster

Markets Today: Little Red Rooster

30 January 2017

A glance at Friday’s New York opening and closing levels for major FX rates tells us that the latest flurry of US data, including a slightly softer than expected Q4 GDP print and downside miss on headline durable goods orders, came and went without much fanfare. US yields dropped on the 1.9% headline GDP print while currencies and stocks did very little.

Markets Today: Little Red Rooster
Markets Today: Jungle

Markets Today: Jungle

27 January 2017

Sydney music producer Flume claimed the top spot in Triple Js 2016 Hottest 100 yesterday, but many will consider the moral victor to have been Melbournian busker Tash Sultana for her brilliant ‘Jungle’.

Markets Today: Jungle
Markets Today: Twice if you’re lucky

Markets Today: Twice if you’re lucky

18 January 2017

Never underestimate the ability of markets to discount the same news twice. Or in the case of the US dollar, the ability to ignore a relevant piece of news one day only to react with alarm to it a day or two later.

Markets Today: Twice if you’re lucky
Markets Today: A hard rain’s a-gonna fall

Markets Today: A hard rain’s a-gonna fall

16 January 2017

Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 44th President of the United States (45th if you count Grover Cleveland as both the 22nd and 24th President) will capture the world’s attention on Friday.

Markets Today: A hard rain’s a-gonna fall
Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)

Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)

11 January 2017

US small business owners tend to be Republican, and those who are member of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) overwhelmingly so. Thus optimism among NFIB members surged to its highest level since 2004 in December and with the monthly increase, from 98.4 to 105.8, the largest since 1980.

Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)
Markets Today: Poor Wages

Markets Today: Poor Wages

5 December 2016

An early song from English progressive rock band Barclay James Harvest. No, it’s not on my playlist either.

Markets Today: Poor Wages
Markets Today: Vienna

Markets Today: Vienna

1 December 2016

Oil prices shot up when OPEC announced that a deal had been reached in Vienna, giving special dispensation to Iran, but overall cuts across the group.

Markets Today: Vienna
Markets Today: Higher Ground

Markets Today: Higher Ground

28 November 2016

Oil prices, of course, have a massive bearing on the rate of inflation throughout the world. That's why the outcome of OPEC talks this week are crucial.

Markets Today: Higher Ground
Markets Today: Big Jet Plane

Markets Today: Big Jet Plane

24 November 2016

The song by Angus and Julia Stone (my absolute favourite Sydney band) made number 1 on Triple J’s Hottest 100 songs of 2010 and was responsible for propelling them on to the international stage. Big jet planes were also responsible for the 4.8% jump in US October durable goods orders reported last night and which […]

Markets Today: Big Jet Plane
Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same

Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same

21 November 2016

A key question this week, for the AUD at least, is whether local exporters will continue to stand aside expectant of still better levels to initiate longer dated hedges and/or whether local real money will now look to lift hedge ratios.

Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same
Markets Today: Back to reality

Markets Today: Back to reality

14 November 2016

Following the severe earthquake this morning in South Island NZ, the Wellington CBD is out of action including the BNZ Harbour Quays building. BNZ Markets will be operating from Auckland / Christchurch and DR sites.

Markets Today: Back to reality
Markets Today: Down in Mexico

Markets Today: Down in Mexico

2 November 2016

US Equities are off, the VIX is up, the US dollar is lower, US Treasury yields are lower and the Mexican Peso/Japanese Yen cross (-2.5%) is still proving to the be the FX market’s weapon of choice when it comes to reflecting sentiment regarding the prospect of Donald Trump.

Markets Today: Down in Mexico
Markets Today: The Fear

Markets Today: The Fear

31 October 2016

In the hour after it was announced that Hillary Clinton’s e-mails were the subject of a new FBI probe, USD/JPY dropped from Y105.50 to Y104.50, the S&P dropped 20 points or 1% with the VIX spiking by 19% and 10-year Treasuries dropped 2bps from 1.85% to 1.83%.

Markets Today: The Fear
Markets Today: Fresh Fruit

Markets Today: Fresh Fruit

26 October 2016

Seven years on from their 1974 classic ‘Whiter Shade of Pale’, Procol Harem’s light-hearted ode to the health benefits of fruit is set for a test today. Healthy on the body fruit may be, but possibly not on the hip pocket in Q3 according to our economists.

Markets Today: Fresh Fruit
Markets Today: 80

Markets Today: 80

24 October 2016

Auction clearance rates in Australia this weekend hit 80% - not just in Sydney and Melbourne but nationally and for the first time since early 2015.

Markets Today: 80
Markets Today: O Canada!

Markets Today: O Canada!

20 October 2016

The revelation by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz following an as-expected unchanged monetary policy decision that the Bank ‘had actively discussed the possibility’ of further monetary policy easing at Wednesday’s meeting.

Markets Today: O Canada!
Markets Today: Under (high) pressure

Markets Today: Under (high) pressure

17 October 2016

In contrast Janet Yellen’s speech in Boston did - primarily in the form of higher Treasury yields at the longer end of the curve and with that late-day support for U.S. dollar. NY Fed President Bill Dudley said he expects a rate rise this year on current forecasts.

Markets Today: Under (high) pressure
Markets Today: Beautiful Lies

Markets Today: Beautiful Lies

6 October 2016

Last night’s US non-manufacturing ISM report was certainly something to behold, with not only the headline read of 57.1 more than reversing the August drip.

Markets Today: Beautiful Lies
Markets Today: Psycho Killer

Markets Today: Psycho Killer

29 September 2016

If Janet Yellen has been in the recording studio at the time, David Byrne might well have been directing his lyrics in her direction.

Markets Today: Psycho Killer
Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World

Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World

27 September 2016

Four hours before an estimate 100 million Americans tune in to watch the two wannabe leaders of the free world go head to head, and a Bloomberg poll published around 7pm Australian Eastern Time last night shows Clinton and Trump tied on 46%.

Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World
Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?

Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?

26 September 2016

Not a huge amount to say about Friday’s offshore markets (unlike Saturday night’s AFL preliminary final), characterised by a give-back of some of the post-FOMC stock market euphoria, fractionally lower US bonds yields and a slightly stronger dollar.

Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?
Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics

Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics

19 September 2016

August U.S. CPI data turned out to be the driver of much of Friday night’s market price action. The 0.3% rise in the core CPI series pushed annual growth up to 2.3% from 2.2% - matching its post-recession cycle high and versus the 2.2% expected.

Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics
Markets Today: From zero to hero

Markets Today: From zero to hero

16 September 2016

During the US dollar’s recent revival associated with deteriorating global risk sentiment and steepening yield curves, the commodity currencies – in particular the AUD and NZD – have been the hardest hit.

Markets Today: From zero to hero
Markets Today: Spinning Around

Markets Today: Spinning Around

12 September 2016

If anyone harboured thoughts that global markets weren’t completely in the thrall of the ‘could they, would they?’ debate about the Fed’s 2016 intentions, they were disabused of the notion from the US get-go on Friday.

Markets Today: Spinning Around
Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent

Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent

6 September 2016

In offshore markets depleted by the absence of the United States off for Labor Day, latest UK economic data and gyrations in the oil price captured most of the overnight headlines.

Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent
Markets Today: September Song

Markets Today: September Song

29 August 2016

Janet Yellen’s Friday morning appearance at Jackson Hole proved not to be the damp squib that many were expecting.

Markets Today: September Song
Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson

Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson

25 August 2016

Only on line one and I already feel like I’m making this up, such is the state of market torpor in front of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and as Sothern England basks in 30 degree summer sunshine – and uncharacteristically not for the first time this year.

Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson
Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing

Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing

22 August 2016

Friday looks to have shown FX traders to be the smartest guys in the room. Traditionally referred to as the ‘last market to clear’ (and so giving FX analysts such as this scribe a career) the dollar had put on a strong showing during the APAC session.

Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing
Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back

Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back

15 August 2016

The previous Friday’s strong US payrolls report has become a somewhat hazy memory after a much softer than expected retail sales report on Friday that challenged prevailing confidence that the US consumer has entered Q3 in rude health.

Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back
Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?

Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?

11 August 2016

In delivering only 25bps cut to the OCR and which was more than 100% discounted ahead of time and the RBNZ’s latest 90-day bill track only implying one more cut, the NZD has predictably bounced sharply. It up just over 1% as we go to press.

Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?
Markets Today: Working Man

Markets Today: Working Man

8 August 2016

There wasn’t much not to like about Friday’s July US payrolls report, the 255k rise in headline payrolls enhanced by 18k worth of upward revision to May and June and meaning that well over half a million more Americans are in work compared to just two months ago.

Markets Today: Working Man
Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want

Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want

3 August 2016

It was a toss-up this morning between the Rolling Stones classic and “You Can’t Hold a Good Man Down” by James and Bobby Purify (et al), both in reference (or deference) to the performance of the Aussie dollar in the aftermath of yesterday’s RBA rate cut.

Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want
Markets Today: Crying Shame

Markets Today: Crying Shame

18 July 2016

News of the (now failed) attempted military coup attempt in Turkey started filtering though about half an hour before the US stock market close, too late to have much impact on cash indices which closed fairly flat but early enough to see the S&P500 futures lose 0.4% after the NYSE close

Markets Today: Crying Shame
Markets Today: Career Opportunities

Markets Today: Career Opportunities

11 July 2016

he US non-farm payrolls headline rise of 287k comfortably exceeded expectations (180k) but wasn’t backed up by the subsidiary details in the report with the unemployment rate higher, small net downward revision to the prior two months payrolls and hourly earnings up just 0.1%.

Markets Today: Career Opportunities
Markets Today: Selling England by the pound

Markets Today: Selling England by the pound

7 July 2016

Genesis’ 1973 album laments the loss of English folk culture and increasing American influence. 43 years on, England can now have back as much of the former as it cares for, but has to hope it can look forward to even more of the latter.

Markets Today: Selling England by the pound
Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E

Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E

27 June 2016

Lows for the day on Friday in all things GBP and AUD and highs for the USD and US Treasury prices came early to mid-afternoon Australian time almost as soon as it became clear the UK had voted for Brexit.

Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E
Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now

Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now

23 June 2016

Pink Floyd’s 1979 song featured on The Wall tells the story of a couple who have treated each other very badly yet are devastated at the prospect of their relationship ending. This seems somewhat appropriate with us now just 9 hours away from polling getting underway in the UK EU referendum.

Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now
Markets Today: Thursday

Markets Today: Thursday

20 June 2016

Markets being what they are, last Thursday’s tragic news of the slaying of UK MP Jo Cox, campaigning on behalf of the ‘remain’ side in front of Thursday’s EU referendum, elicited a strong positive response in all things Sterling, as well as supporting risk sentiment more broadly.

Markets Today: Thursday
Markets Today: The Fear

Markets Today: The Fear

14 June 2016

Friday night, Sterling was hit hard soon after London had shut shop for the week, on the publication of an (internet) poll by ORB of over 2000 respondents for the UK Independent newspaper, showing a 55/45 split in favour of ‘Leave’.

Markets Today: The Fear
Markets Today: Low

Markets Today: Low

10 June 2016

Rebel One being BTMFJ who were reported to be on the verge of rescinding their JGB Primary Dealership and Rebel Two being Commerzbank, reported to be considering storing cash in vaults rather than pay the ECB for the privilege of depositing excess cash with them.

Markets Today: Low
Markets Today: Rebellion

Markets Today: Rebellion

9 June 2016

We are now seeing signs in other parts of the world of rebellion by private sector banks aimed at circumventing the deleterious effects of negative central bank policy rates and government bond yields.

Markets Today: Rebellion
Markets Today: Life’s a gas

Markets Today: Life’s a gas

17 May 2016

Be grateful for small mercies. It’s a good job this 1971 T.Rex classic popped into my head as I was alighting at Wynyard station this morning, or else you might have been subjected to the ultra-cringe-worthy 1968 Dolly Parton ditty, “I’ll oil well love you” (I kid you not).

Markets Today: Life’s a gas
Markets Today: China Matters

Markets Today: China Matters

13 May 2016

In a shock revelation, the Dallas Fed has published a note on its website saying that the impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades.

Markets Today: China Matters
Markets Today: Smash & Grab

Markets Today: Smash & Grab

4 May 2016

No, the title is not a summation of Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison’s first Budget handed down last night. Rather it looks to be the most apt description of market price action – in FX at least – apropos the smart overnight session reversal in the fortunes of the Japanese Yen and the Euro.

Markets Today: Smash & Grab
Markets Today: Debbie Downer

Markets Today: Debbie Downer

2 May 2016

The 2004 Saturday Night Live fictional character, recently brought back to life in song on Cortney Barnett's brilliant debut album, would have been in her element on Friday.

Markets Today: Debbie Downer
Markets Today: No dice

Markets Today: No dice

18 April 2016

Regardless of whether an agreement yesterday by major producers to freeze oil production would have had any meaningful impact on oil prices beyond the psychological boost it might have provided.

Markets Today: No dice
Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar

Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar

11 April 2016

A fairly uneventful offshore session on Friday saw US stocks recover some of Thursday’s losses, bond yields pushing back higher while the US dollar was softer across the board.

Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar
Markets Today: Send in the Clowns

Markets Today: Send in the Clowns

8 April 2016

Sorry, I couldn’t resist the title seeing as how Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker are all about to jump up on stage together.

Markets Today: Send in the Clowns
Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night

Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night

6 April 2016

Local market’s finished up on Tuesday in a distinctly ‘risk-off’ frame of mind, and that sentiment has extended throughout the European and US sessions

Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night
Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy

Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy

4 April 2016

There was nothing not to like about Friday’s US data deluge. Payrolls just beat expectations at 215k vs. 205k with trivial revisions.

Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy
Markets Today: Afterglow

Markets Today: Afterglow

31 March 2016

Equities and non-US dollar currencies continue to bask in the afterglow of Janet Yellen’s Tuesday night speech.

Markets Today: Afterglow
Markets Today: Take It Easy

Markets Today: Take It Easy

7 March 2016

We weren’t alone on Friday thinking that the risks heading into the US employment report were for a disappointing headline non-farm payrolls print

Markets Today: Take It Easy
Markets Today: Weasel words

Markets Today: Weasel words

29 February 2016

Plenty of official hand-wringing regarding downside risks to global growth and which was reflected in the communique issued on Saturday after the 2-day G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Shanghai.

Markets Today: Weasel words
Markets Today:  Pushmi-pullyu

Markets Today: Pushmi-pullyu

11 February 2016

If we had to try and summarise the best part of three hours of testimony before Congress by Fed chair Janet Yellen in one sentence, it would be something like “Janet fails to go full dove”.

Markets Today:  Pushmi-pullyu
Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?

Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?

25 January 2016

Oil having been the main driver of most of the market price action of the past two weeks, it was Friday’s near 10% rebound that was the catalyst for much of Friday’s retracements.

Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?
Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)

Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)

20 January 2016

Flipping through the Eagles song list on the way in, none of the many great Glenn Frey-penned tracks struck me as particularly applicable titles to describe overnight markets.

Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)
Markets Today: Groundhog day

Markets Today: Groundhog day

18 January 2016

In a redux of the previous Friday, slumping oil prices were the primary catalyst for the latest pressure on commodity and emerging market currencies and global risk assets, alongside safe-haven support for Treasuries.

Markets Today: Groundhog day
Markets Today: Dollar days

Markets Today: Dollar days

14 January 2016

Less than hard-core Bowie aficionados can be forgiven for not immediately humming this track, which features on the Blackstar album released two days before his untimely death.

Markets Today: Dollar days
Markets Today: This is not America

Markets Today: This is not America

13 January 2016

‘Under Pressure’ was a particularly apt title to yesterday’s daily from my colleague Rodrigo by way of homage to the late great David Bowie.

Markets Today: This is not America
Markets Today: Riders on the storm

Markets Today: Riders on the storm

11 January 2016

On another day, news of a near 300k rise in US payrolls, still quite benign earnings growth and a steady but near-full employment unemployment rate (5.0%), might have sent equities and the dollar to the moon and bond yield higher.

Markets Today: Riders on the storm
Markets Today: Back to Black

Markets Today: Back to Black

24 December 2015

Heading into Wednesday’s New York close, the S&P 500 is showing a gain of about 1.2% on the day, which equates to a rise of just 0.2% year to date.

Markets Today: Back to Black
Market’s today: Freaky Friday

Market’s today: Freaky Friday

21 December 2015

Friday was one of the four ‘triple witching’ occasions of 2015 (expiration of stock index futures, index options and individual share options) –sometimes known as freaky Friday.

Market’s today: Freaky Friday
Markets Today:  Zirp Rip

Markets Today: Zirp Rip

17 December 2015

Nine and a half years on from the last Fed rate hike and seven years on from when interest rates were first set at the effective zero lower bound (0-0.25%) the Fed has seen fit to sound the death knell for ZIRP, lifting the target rate for the fed funds rate to a range of 0.25-0.5%.

Markets Today:  Zirp Rip
Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’

Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’

16 December 2015

Unlike the rest of us who are now waiting to see what Janet Yellen delivers this time tomorrow, RBA Governor Governor Glenn Stevens has gone early, the AFR publishing its now traditional end-of-year interview with him overnight.

Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’
Markets Today: Black Friday

Markets Today: Black Friday

27 November 2015

In the 1975 Steely Dan classic, the song Black Friday refers to a 24 September 1869 ploy by a group of wealthy US investors to corner the gold market and drive the price higher, but who were subsequently foiled when the government got wind and released $4 million worth of gold onto the market.

Markets Today: Black Friday
Markets Today: It’s all relative

Markets Today: It’s all relative

26 November 2015

It’s 100 years ago today that Albert Einstein formally presented the results of his eight year study into gravity – the general theory of relativity. Good on you Albert.

Markets Today: It’s all relative
Markets Today: No Copper Bottom

Markets Today: No Copper Bottom

18 November 2015

It is a bit odd coming in to see hard commodity prices under the pump (including a $2 drop in iron ore prices, new cycle lows for copper and oil off another buck) but the AUD at the top of the G10 FX leader board.

Markets Today: No Copper Bottom
Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom

Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom

9 November 2015

Friday’s US payrolls report delivered across-the-board strength and markets responded to script, the dollar and bond yields both sharply higher but equity markets not sure whether to embrace the more positive US growth signals or fear the seemingly near-inevitably of December Fed ‘lift-off’.

Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom
Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?

Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?

29 October 2015

Global concerns and the potential negative feedback loop to the US economy and inflation have been dialled down. At the same, concerns about the strength of the labour market have been somewhat dialled up, the Fed noting that “the pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady”.

Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?
Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off

Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off

26 October 2015

Watching the tears streaming down the face of Pumas head coach Daniel Hourcade a couple of hours ago, ‘Don’t Cry For Me Argentine’ was the obvious title for today’s missive, but it’s already looking a little overused in the Twitter-sphere.

Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off
Markets Today: Friday on my mind

Markets Today: Friday on my mind

20 October 2015

Though there isn’t too much to say about last night’s markets and after the local market yesterday was, within 15 minutes of the China data, already checking out the coming weekend’s weather forecast.

Markets Today: Friday on my mind
Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy

Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy

19 October 2015

Friday was largely a lower beta replica of Thursday and where, recall, the higher US core CPI and further drop in US jobless claims were the key market drivers. Momentum carried though to Friday’s session, and wasn’t undermined by US industrial/manufacturing production data that was soft.

Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy
Markets Today: Core, Blimey

Markets Today: Core, Blimey

16 October 2015

Much of Wednesday’s market price action in currencies, equities and bonds has been reversed. The exceptions here are the commodity currency trio of NZD, CAD and AUD which for the most part are continuing to resist the allure of a weaker US dollar.

Markets Today: Core, Blimey
Markets Today: No quarter

Markets Today: No quarter

15 October 2015

Led Zeppelin (1973) for the benefit of a generation younger than this scribe (i.e. most of you).

Markets Today: No quarter
Markets Today: From hero to zero

Markets Today: From hero to zero

14 October 2015

In the five days through this Monday, the AUD had been the best performing major currency, rallying by just shy of 4% against the US dollar.

Markets Today: From hero to zero
Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style

Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style

12 October 2015

AUD was the best performing G10 currency on Friday, and GBP the worse, the latter initially suffering on some dismal UK trade figures and which contrast starkly with the Eurozone’s current account surplus status.

Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style
Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)

Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)

7 October 2015

The IMF is hogging the news headlines overnight, though markets have long since given up seeing much information value in the now customary 6-monthly downward revisions to its global and country-specific growth forecasts.

Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)
Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça

Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça

2 October 2015

At the start of a new quarter, markets are struggling for a clear frame of reference, not yet sure whether bad economic news is good news for risk if it keeps the Fed at bay for longer, or is bad news because it serves to amplify concerns about the overall health of the global economy.

Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça
Markets Today: Recession, what recession?

Markets Today: Recession, what recession?

1 October 2015

The US ADP employment report last night printed +200k, seemingly confirming that the US economy continues to create more than enough jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate trending down to – and through – the so-called NAIRU rate (below which further labour market strength risks accelerating inflation)

Markets Today: Recession, what recession?
Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?

Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?

10 September 2015

The RBNZ has just delivered a universally expected 25-point cut to the OCR (to 2.75%) and says both that some further easing seems likely and that further currency deprecation is appropriate. This takes a bite out of pre-RBNZ NZD strength.

Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?
Markets Today: (Fed) fright night

Markets Today: (Fed) fright night

7 September 2015

In the wake Friday’s US employment report that overall could be judged to be consistent with the FOMC’s stated desire to see ‘some further improvement in the labor market’, risk markets took fresh fright.

Markets Today: (Fed) fright night
Markets Today: Not much the wiser

Markets Today: Not much the wiser

31 August 2015

European and U.S markets on Friday failed to key off the 4.82% rise in the Shanghai Composite, in contrast to Thursday. The proximity to the weekend Jackson Hole talk-fest looks to have been a factor keeping trading subdued.

Markets Today: Not much the wiser
Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”

Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”

25 August 2015

Feeding off Monday’s 8.5%plunge in the Shanghai index and not much else, US stock markets have just closed with the S&P500 down 3.92%, the NASDAQ -3.81% and the Dow 3.56%. This masks much more extreme intraday volatility and which saw indices down more than 5% earlier in the US session.

Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”
Markets Today: Lightning bolts

Markets Today: Lightning bolts

24 August 2015

Despite the best efforts of policy makers of late to downplay the significance of the first Fed rate rise relative to what happens after that, global markets remain in the midst of rate rise ructions.

Markets Today: Lightning bolts
Markets Today: US data nonchalance

Markets Today: US data nonchalance

18 August 2015

News wise, it has actually been quite an eventful night – tragically so in Thailand where a bomb blast in the centre of Bangkok during Monday’s evening rush hour is reported to have killed least 19 people and injured more than 120.

Markets Today: US data nonchalance
Markets Today: So last week

Markets Today: So last week

17 August 2015

An uneventful end to the week on Friday but one where mild upside surprises in US industrial production and PPI helped deliver slightly higher US treasury yields out to 10 years and a marginally firmer dollar.

Markets Today: So last week
Markets Today: Walking on sunshine

Markets Today: Walking on sunshine

6 August 2015

Anglo-American pop band Katrina and the Waves - Walking on Sunshine - is 30 years old this year and the rights to the song were sold to Bertelsmann last night for a cool £10mn. The song still generates over £1mn. a year in royalties and endorsements.

Markets Today: Walking on sunshine
Markets Today: ECI Friday

Markets Today: ECI Friday

3 August 2015

Most of Friday’s market price action emanated from the US Q2 Employment Cost Index, which at just +0.2% Q/Q (not annualised) was the lowest quarterly change since records began in 1996. The market was looking for +0.6% after +0.7% in Q1.

Markets Today: ECI Friday
Markets Today: So So

Markets Today: So So

30 July 2015

Two words, both beginning with ‘so’ - solid and some - marked the FOMC statement out as very subtly more hawkish than its recent predecessors.

Markets Today: So So
Markets Today: Relative calm restored

Markets Today: Relative calm restored

20 July 2015

Friday was pretty quiet, in FX especially, after US CPI data failed to surprise, following a slow Asia session where activity was constrained by end-of-Ramadan holidays in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Gold was one of the biggest movers on the night, -$11.25 to a new 5-year low of $1134.14

Markets Today: Relative calm restored
Markets Today:  Guilt by association

Markets Today: Guilt by association

16 July 2015

News wise, nothing bad has happened in or to Australia since we went home last night. Yet the AUD sits almost a full cent lower than where we left it.

Markets Today:  Guilt by association
Markets Today: Take it or leave it

Markets Today: Take it or leave it

13 July 2015

According to the Guardian’s European correspondent, ‘extensive mental waterboarding’ is how one official described the rough ride being given to Greek PM Alex Tsipras by EU President Donald Tusk, German chancellor Merkel and French President Françoise Hollande.

Markets Today: Take it or leave it
Markets Today: 61% say No

Markets Today: 61% say No

6 July 2015

Ahead of Sunday’s referendum, that is now in process of delivering a decisive ‘No’ vote (to the terms and conditions under which Greece’s creditors would have extended the now-expired second bailout).

Markets Today: 61% say No
Markets Today: Circling the wagons

Markets Today: Circling the wagons

3 July 2015

An overall disappointing US payrolls report, the ‘lowlight’ of which was an unexpectedly flat monthly read on average hourly earnings and which, together with a 0.1% downward revision to May, served to pull annual earnings growth down to 2.0% from 2.3%.

Markets Today: Circling the wagons
Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down

Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down

2 July 2015

om Petty’s 1989 classic is appropriately recast as an “Ode to Alex” (Tsipras) after the Greek Prime Minister says he won’t back down on his referendum decision and that both he and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis confirmed they are campaigning for a ‘No’ vote in Sunday’s poll.

Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down
Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)

Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)

19 June 2015

A fairly big slug of US economic data last night – admittedly not all of its top drawer – collectively added up to progress, on the real economy at least, towards the commencement of Fed tightening in coming months.

Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)
Markets Today: Greek nonchalance

Markets Today: Greek nonchalance

16 June 2015

Given the news that greeted the incoming Asia-Pacific market on Monday morning – that talks between Greece and her creditors in Brussels on Sunday had collapsed after just 45 minutes

Markets Today: Greek nonchalance
Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon

Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon

15 June 2015

After markets last week ended with a whimper rather than a bang, things have already heated up this morning with news on Sunday evening from Brussels that the latest talks aimed at bridging the differences between Greece and her creditors have collapsed.

Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon
Markets Today: Wheeler dealer

Markets Today: Wheeler dealer

11 June 2015

To the evident delight of a section of the offshore hedge fund community, the RBNZ has just delivered on its recently instated easing bias, with a 25-point cut to the OCR to 3.25% and accompanied by a statement that further easing may be appropriate.

Markets Today: Wheeler dealer
Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?

Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?

9 June 2015

The first port of call for some Australian market participants this morning, returning to work after a three day weekend and having just caught up on Friday’s all-important US employment report, might be to their IT department to complain the prices on their screens are all wrong.

Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?
Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)

Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)

2 June 2015

Incoming US economic data continues to rule the roost, last night’s batch encompassing the manufacturing ISM (strong), construction spending (very strong) personal income (strong), spending (weak) and the personal consumption deflators (weak).

Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)
Markets Today: Four more sleeps

Markets Today: Four more sleeps

1 June 2015

US revised Q1 GDP came in at -0.7% so not quite as weak as the -0.9% expected (and note any upward revision from a review of seasonal adjustment methodology will not arrive until the Q2 estimate is first released in late July).

Markets Today: Four more sleeps
Markets Today:  7th Heaven

Markets Today: 7th Heaven

19 May 2015

They might not exactly be skipping across Martin Place to work this morning, but there should be at least a small smile on the faces of RBA Board members that the Aussie dollar is trading back on a ‘7’ handle, following a night during which the US dollar had been bid across the board.

Markets Today:  7th Heaven
Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week

Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week

11 May 2015

The April US employment report proved to be a ‘Goldilocks’ affair for markets, not strong enough to detract from the view a first Fed tightening probably won’t happen at least before September

Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week
Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events

Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events

4 May 2015

The US Treasury bond yield back-up continued on Friday, but this time not led by Europe, where the 10yr Bund yield was up just 0.7bp to 0.373% in a holiday thinned European May Day .

Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events
Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?

Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?

28 April 2015

Eurozone markets have been cheered by reports that Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has been removed from the debt-deal negotiation table by his prime minister. Varoufakis’ hard-ball tactics have been a source of huge frustration for the Brussels group of international creditors.

Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?
Markets Today: When less is more

Markets Today: When less is more

27 April 2015

Almost without irony, we have to report that Friday’s US durable goods orders report was sufficiently weak to power US stock indices to new record highs, such was the ‘zero for longer’ interpretation of the data. Not the better than expected +4% headline read-out, but the core numbers for capital goods that exclude both (exceptionally strong) Boeing aircraft orders and also relatively strong auto orders.

Markets Today: When less is more
FOMC Fireworks

FOMC Fireworks

9 October 2014

Some quite explosive overnight price action and which has followed directly from the publication of the September FOMC meeting minutes. This has seen US equities jump by almost a percent.

FOMC Fireworks
A Tale of Two Numbers

A Tale of Two Numbers

25 September 2014

The juxtaposition of another significant downside Eurozone data surprise (German IFO) and a major upside surprise for US New Home Sales has – unsurprisingly – pushed the EUR below 1.28 against the US dollar for the first time since 10 July 2013.

A Tale of Two Numbers