COMMODITIES

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

The market opened yesterday in the Asia session where it closed on Friday with the USD and Treasury yields in retreat.

From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).

What was meant to be a quiet night ahead of key risk events (US FOMC and Dutch elections today) turned out to be rather more exciting.

Business survey suggests solid near-term activity, despite easing from multi-year high.

As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR performed and it has also pushed bond yields higher.

When nothing else springs to mind, David Bowie songs are always a handy source for a daily note title.

Recession fears overblown as GDP rebounds; income surges despite weak labour income.

Astute readers (and listeners to our early morning podcast) will note Empire of the Sun’s Walking on a dream was one of our first song titles for 2017. That title was prompted by a lack of detail around Trump’s policies ahead of inauguration day which led markets to ask “is it real”?

Summer has brought extremely volatile conditions to Australia’s cropping districts. While much of eastern Australia has baked in an extraordinary heatwave, Western Australia has suffered substantial flooding.

Thinking about some of the challenges facing Australian policy makers – and arguably consumers – at the present time, the slow growth in wages looms large.

Another quiet end to a quiet week but with the U.S. dollar grinding out small gains despite further slippage in US bond yields (10s -6bps) and a fairly flat U.S. stock market (albeit new record closing highs for the S&P and the Dow).

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

More focus on the US economy and the big dollar overnight in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday and followed that up overnight with two more interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

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