Overview

• Trends among individual commodities have been divergent in recent months – with gold continuing to rise to new record highs, while iron ore and base metals rose until early November, supported by expectations of Chinese stimulus, before falling following the US election and the underwhelming fiscal package from China. In contrast, metallurgical coal and crude oil declined from early October. On average, we expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to move slightly higher in Q4 – up around 0.9% qoq.
• We have revised our global economic outlook following the US elections. A stronger starting point in the US and the Euro-zone mean a slightly stronger profile in 2024 and 2025, before global growth slows in 2026 – reflecting the impact of US tariffs. There remains uncertainty around the timing and scale of these measures, the retaliatory responses of other countries and further Chinese stimulus and/or reform.
• Our weaker economic growth profile – particularly for China – is a negative for commodity markets. In US dollar terms, our commodity price index is forecast to fall by 12.6% in 2025 and a further 7.2% in 2026.

Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook (December 2024)