July 20, 2015

Essential Asia: Head(winds) or Tail(risks)

A macro strategist’s view on Asian economies and markets

The first half of the calendar year has been a case of struggling USD strength and rallying China equities. Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3165 to the peak at 5166 in mid-June. The benchmark index has since crashed and is now testing 4000. The Chinese authorities want a “slow bull” as the landscape points to several key themes such as: RMB internationalisation; swings in Fed’s rate hike expectations; and, greasy Greece situation.

Key highlights:

  • Greece risks, China stockmarket fallout and MERS situation in Korea have been added to the list of economic risks for Asia.
  • Policy easing and extra fiscal stimulus are expected policy responses, rendering weaker FX a complementary policy tool in coming months.
  • We made downward revisions to Asian FX forecasts for H2 2015.

For full analysis, download report: Essential Asia: Head(winds) or Tail(risks) (PDF, 599 KB)

The AUD in November 2023

The AUD in November 2023

1 December 2023

The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.

The AUD in November 2023
Markets Today – The Cool Out

Markets Today – The Cool Out

1 December 2023

After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.

Markets Today – The Cool Out