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Global insights and research for organisations and investors with cross-border interests.

LATEST FEATURE

16 Nov 2021

NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey 2021: summary

Our 10th biennial survey – the only survey of its kind to examine hedging techniques of Australian Super Funds – captures their shifting priorities in this rapidly changing landscape.

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23 Nov 2021

AMW: Austria’s lockdown – should we worry?

Austria has re-imposed lockdown restrictions with a sharp rise in hospitalisations being driven by both the unvaccinated and older fully vaccinated people.

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INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose to +11 pts in Q1, building on the gains seen in the last quarter when the index moved back into positive territory for the first time in 2 years.

The S&P500 high to low fall since the early January high puts it down 19% year to date and although not officially in bear market territory yet, looks to be only a matter of time.

The UK’s unemployment rate fell to it’s lowest level since 1974 and along with a further pickup in average earnings growth, now see money markets pricing 125bps of BOE rate hikes by December.

The biggest news overnight is commodities, oil prices are up, which threatens to prolong the inflation narrative.

COVID lockdowns point to weaker growth and greater uncertainty in the near term.

US Consumer Sentiment fell further than expected to be at its lowest level since August 2011 and with consumer confidence so low, the risk of recession is rising.

We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.

Risk assets remained out of favour as concerns over inflation and recession risk continued to dominate.

Growth set to slow to below its long-run average

Another volatile session in markets with an upward surprise in the April US inflation data release adding an extra layer of uncertainty

The RBA met last week and raised rates by 25bps, lifting the cash rate target to 0.35%, and signalled further hikes over coming months

Decline in inflation expectations drive core global bond yields lower with further fall in oil prices helping the move.

The ongoing theme of mounting growth concerns against a backdrop of central bank tightening is continuing to drive market movements.

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