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Global insights and research for organisations and investors with cross-border interests.

LATEST FEATURE

16 Nov 2021

NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey 2021: summary

Our 10th biennial survey – the only survey of its kind to examine hedging techniques of Australian Super Funds – captures their shifting priorities in this rapidly changing landscape.

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23 Nov 2021

AMW: Austria’s lockdown – should we worry?

Austria has re-imposed lockdown restrictions with a sharp rise in hospitalisations being driven by both the unvaccinated and older fully vaccinated people.

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INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.

The San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly warned it is too early to ‘declare victory’ over inflation.

Weaker growth prospects, persistent inflation & geopolitical risk

It was all about US CPI overnight with markets reacting sharply to a lower than expected print with Equity and FX markets taking the CPI miss as a positive signal, taking some pressure off the Fed and a sign that inflation has peaked.

There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.

In this Weekly we look at job ads in more detail to see what they may be portending for activity, and we also cross check the data with other information.

China is continuing its military drills around Taiwan, but that hasn’t impacted markets apart from gold (+0.7% to 1,787.61) retaining some slight geopolitical risk premium.

NAB’s Commercial Property Index eased to +1 pt in Q2 (+11 in Q1) amid reports market is starting to respond to higher inflation and interest rates.

Walking away? China’s ambitious growth target has moved too far out of reach.

An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.

As widely expected, the BoE lifted the cash rate by 50bps and retained the option to act forcefully in the future, the Bank now officially sees a recession in the horizon.

A few hours on from Nancy Pelosi leaving Taiwan and markets have almost forgotten she ever came. Equity market have recovered their poise, a tech sector rally seeing the NASDAQ close at its highest level since 4 May.

Our analysis in this weekly highlights that the RBA is indeed treading a fine line in trying to chart a credible path to at target inflation.

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