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Markets Today – Sweet Spot

Markets Today – Sweet Spot

30 November 2023

Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.

Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

28 November 2023

US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

Insights, Trends & Case Studies

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

24 November 2023

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

23 November 2023

Todays podcast   US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully

Markets Today – Proceed Carefully

22 November 2023

The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.

Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
Markets Today – Feel Good Time

Markets Today – Feel Good Time

21 November 2023

US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.

Markets Today – Feel Good Time
Markets Today – Sour Candy

Markets Today – Sour Candy

17 November 2023

A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed

Markets Today – Sour Candy
Markets Today – Slow

Markets Today – Slow

15 November 2023

US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.

Markets Today – Slow
Markets Today – Torn

Markets Today – Torn

10 November 2023

Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.

Markets Today – Torn
Spreading your wings

Spreading your wings

7 November 2023

Homebody investors may love ASX blue-chip stocks and franked dividends, but could be missing out on opportunities in sectors such as artificial intelligence and renewables by ignoring offshore markets.

Spreading your wings

Article

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

6 November 2023

Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Markets Today – Crazy in love

Markets Today – Crazy in love

3 November 2023

Risk-on continues in the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as investors price the aggressive monetary hiking cycle as being closer to the end.

Markets Today – Crazy in love
Markets Today – On Hold

Markets Today – On Hold

2 November 2023

The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.

Markets Today – On Hold
The AUD in October 2023

The AUD in October 2023

1 November 2023

Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.

The AUD in October 2023
Markets Today – Muddy Waters

Markets Today – Muddy Waters

30 October 2023

European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.

Markets Today – Muddy Waters
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up

Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up

27 October 2023

Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.

Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

26 October 2023

US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
Markets Today – Carefully

Markets Today – Carefully

20 October 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment

Markets Today – Carefully
NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

19 October 2023

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

17 October 2023

Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

Podcast

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

10 October 2023

Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – Work It

Markets Today – Work It

9 October 2023

Stronger than expected payrolls data initially saw yields sharply higher, equities lower, and the USD stronger, though with the unemployment rate steady and earnings growth moderating, those moves were retraced.

Markets Today – Work It
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

6 October 2023

Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

5 October 2023

The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

4 October 2023

A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.

Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
The AUD in September 2023

The AUD in September 2023

3 October 2023

The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.

The AUD in September 2023
The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

22 September 2023

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

Article

Markets Today – One More Day

Markets Today – One More Day

20 September 2023

Bond markets are a little feisty ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a hold is still expected tomorrow but there are more signs that inflation isn’t beaten yet.

Markets Today – One More Day
Markets Today – Calm before the storm

Markets Today – Calm before the storm

19 September 2023

US equities start the new week in a sedated manner while European counterparts record sharp declines. Front end yields have a led a bear flattening of the UST curve and the USD is a tad softer

Markets Today – Calm before the storm
Markets Today  – Livin’ On a Prayer

Markets Today – Livin’ On a Prayer

18 September 2023

The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

Markets Today  – Livin’ On a Prayer
Markets Today – As high as it gets?

Markets Today – As high as it gets?

15 September 2023

Todays podcast   ECB opts to hike, but taken as dovish with guidance read as a peak in rates Euro -0.8% and European yields are lower US Retail Sales data stronger in August, though offset by revisions AU Employment bounced in August Coming up: China Activity & MLF rate, NZ Manufacturing PMI, US UMich confidence […]

Markets Today – As high as it gets?
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

12 September 2023

Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today – Slow Ride

Markets Today – Slow Ride

8 September 2023

Yields are generally lower globally after a boost to US 2-year yields from lower jobless claims proved short-lived while equities declined.

Markets Today – Slow Ride
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

5 September 2023

It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – The Best

Markets Today – The Best

4 September 2023

Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried

Markets Today – The Best
Markets Today – Hot and Cold

Markets Today – Hot and Cold

31 August 2023

US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.

Markets Today – Hot and Cold
AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole

29 August 2023

Powell affirmed the Fed will ‘keep at it’ on inflation, but what else happened at Jackson Hole? In the weekly, we pull out some of the key insights, including on the outlook for government debt and the ‘friendshoring’ dynamic.

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole
Markets Today – Play it Safe

Markets Today – Play it Safe

28 August 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.

Markets Today – Play it Safe
Markets Today – Falling

Markets Today – Falling

24 August 2023

Yields were generally lower globally as PMI data came in softer than expectations, with deterioration most pronounced in German Services. The AUD was stronger, as were US equities, with tech leading once again ahead of much anticipated earnings from Nvidia.

Markets Today – Falling
Markets Today – Marking Time

Markets Today – Marking Time

23 August 2023

US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.

Markets Today – Marking Time
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

17 August 2023

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried

17 August 2023

Todays podcast FOMC Minutes show concern about upside risks to inflation US yields higher led by 5bp rise in 10yr Equities were lower, S&P500 -0.8% with declines late in the session Asia equities weighed by China concerns AUD -0.5% against a broadly stronger dollar at 0.6421 Coming up: AU Employment, NZ PPI, JN Machinery Orders, […]

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried
Markets Today – When it rains it pours

Markets Today – When it rains it pours

15 August 2023

US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD

Markets Today – When it rains it pours
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

10 August 2023

Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Sour Candy

Markets Today – Sour Candy

9 August 2023

Risk appetite has been weighed over the past 24 hours by a trio of soft China data, a surprise ‘windfall’ tax on bank profits in Italy, and a downgrade of a number of small and mid-sized banks by Moody’s.

Markets Today – Sour Candy
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

8 August 2023

Northern hemisphere summer holidays and a lack of data has seen markets treading water ahead of US CPI figures on Thursday.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Pump It

Markets Today – Pump It

2 August 2023

The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.

Markets Today – Pump It
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams

Markets Today – Sweet Dreams

1 August 2023

Markets were generally quiet to start to week ahead of key risk events later in the week (BoE Thursday, US ISM Services Thursday, US Payrolls Friday).

Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
Markets Today – Better than you

Markets Today – Better than you

28 July 2023

Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.

Markets Today – Better than you
Markets Today – Shivers

Markets Today – Shivers

25 July 2023

Weak European PMIs have seen yields fall, though moves in US Treasuries retraced latter in the day.

Markets Today – Shivers
Markets Today – The Waiting

Markets Today – The Waiting

24 July 2023

US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.

Markets Today – The Waiting
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

20 July 2023

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Slow and low

Markets Today – Slow and low

18 July 2023

Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.

Markets Today – Slow and low
Markets Today – Getting better

Markets Today – Getting better

17 July 2023

A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.

Markets Today – Getting better
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

14 July 2023

After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
Markets Today – Waiting for the night

Markets Today – Waiting for the night

12 July 2023

Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.

Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Markets Today – Maybe Next Time

Markets Today – Maybe Next Time

5 July 2023

The RBA met yesterday and held rates steady. Other than that, it was a very quiet 24 hours characterised by thin trading alongside the US 4 July holiday.

Markets Today – Maybe Next Time
The AUD in June 2023

The AUD in June 2023

3 July 2023

The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.

The AUD in June 2023
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

3 July 2023

Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

30 June 2023

The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

28 June 2023

Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

22 June 2023

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

Insight

Markets Today – No relief

Markets Today – No relief

22 June 2023

Powell added little new information in House testimony, but the US dollar was weaker and equities were lower. UK CPI data surprised higher ahead of the BoE later today

Markets Today – No relief
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

20 June 2023

European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

16 June 2023

US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?

Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?

14 June 2023

US CPI was in line with expectations, adding to confidence the FOMC will skip at tomorrow’s meeting even as yields pushed higher. Strong UK labour market saw UK yields surge.

Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

13 June 2023

After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop

AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop

7 June 2023

In our latest Weekly, Taylor Nugent explores the impact of pandemic swings in population and housing demand to explain the current acute rental market tightness and rapidly increasing rents, as well as when these pressure may ease

AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop
Markets Today – Consequences

Markets Today – Consequences

7 June 2023

It has been a quiet 24 hours in markets with generally small market movements, while the Australian dollar held onto its gains following yesterday RBA rate hike, 0.8% higher against the US dollar.

Markets Today – Consequences
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

5 June 2023

A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
Markets Today – Mr Brightside

Markets Today – Mr Brightside

2 June 2023

A positive night for risk sentiment with equities up (S&P500 +1.0%; Eurostoxx50 +0.9%), USD down (DXY -0.7%), and yields lower (US 10yr -3.8bps to 3.60% and 2yr -6.4bps to 4.34%).

Markets Today – Mr Brightside
The AUD in May 2023

The AUD in May 2023

1 June 2023

The AUD fell below 65 cents in May, in doing so re-establishing a more ‘normal’ monthly trading range after two months of highly compressed volatility.

The AUD in May 2023
Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

31 May 2023

After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

30 May 2023

Public Holidays in the US, UK and Germany made for a very quiet night as far as market moves are concerned.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Now That I Found You

Markets Today – Now That I Found You

29 May 2023

US equities were higher on Friday as hopes grew of a debt ceiling deal, ahead of news on the weekend that an agreement in principle had indeed been found. US data was strong and Fed tightening expectations firmed.

Markets Today – Now That I Found You
Markets Today – Tug of War

Markets Today – Tug of War

24 May 2023

The absence of a debt ceiling deal weighs on risk sentiment even as Biden calls talks ‘productive,’ while global PMIs reaffirm the stark divergence between services and goods.

Markets Today – Tug of War
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

22 May 2023

US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

18 May 2023

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Tread water

Markets Today – Tread water

10 May 2023

Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.

Markets Today – Tread water
Markets Today – No imminent crunch

Markets Today – No imminent crunch

9 May 2023

US and EU equities have closed with modest gains while core yields extended Friday’s rise. The Fed Senior Loan Officer revealed a modest deterioration in lending standards alongside a drop in demand for loans, so no evidence of an imminent credit crunch. The USD is little changed with NZD leading a modest outperformance by pro-growth currencies.

Markets Today – No imminent crunch
Markets Today – Dance Monkey

Markets Today – Dance Monkey

3 May 2023

Big moves in markets overnight as US regional bank worries reignited, signs of catering in European loan demand, and a sharp fall in US job openings.

Markets Today – Dance Monkey
Markets Today – Resolution

Markets Today – Resolution

2 May 2023

US yields are higher and the dollar stronger with little fallout from the failure of First Republic, being acquired by JP Morgan in an FDIC-supported deal.

Markets Today – Resolution
Markets Today – A lot to digest

Markets Today – A lot to digest

1 May 2023

The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.

Markets Today – A lot to digest
Markets Today – No Help Coming

Markets Today – No Help Coming

27 April 2023

The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.

Markets Today – No Help Coming
Markets Today – The Reason

Markets Today – The Reason

21 April 2023

Weaker second-tier US data has helped push global yields lower, while disappointing earnings by Tesla (-9.7%) and talk of margin compression dragged down equities.

Markets Today – The Reason
NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

20 April 2023

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Shake it up

Markets Today – Shake it up

20 April 2023

The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations

Markets Today – Shake it up
Markets Today – Love Is In The Air

Markets Today – Love Is In The Air

14 April 2023

Todays podcast Soft US PPI helps drive a risk-on rally Adds to views the US Fed is almost done USD falls, and AUD and NZD outperform Yields mixed, equities up ahead of earnings Coming up: US Retail Sales, US Bank Earnings “Love is in the air, everywhere I look around; Love is in the air, […]

Markets Today – Love Is In The Air
Markets Today – Waiting for you

Markets Today – Waiting for you

12 April 2023

It was a quiet session overnight ahead of key risk events later in the week (US CPI is on Wednesday and bank earnings are on Friday, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan).

Markets Today – Waiting for you
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

5 April 2023

A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
Markets Today – Stick or Twist

Markets Today – Stick or Twist

4 April 2023

Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today

Markets Today – Stick or Twist
The AUD in March 2023

The AUD in March 2023

3 April 2023

Following two months of well above-average ranges, the AUD/USD range reduced to just 2.2 cents in March, though the currency did hit a 4-month low of 0.6565.

The AUD in March 2023
Markets Today – Love so soft

Markets Today – Love so soft

3 April 2023

A softer than expected US Core PCE Deflator (0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% expected) helped push yields lower on Friday (US 10yr -8.1bps to 3.47%).

Markets Today – Love so soft
Markets Today – It’s All Good

Markets Today – It’s All Good

30 March 2023

The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.

Markets Today – It’s All Good
Markets Today – Relative Calm

Markets Today – Relative Calm

29 March 2023

There has been little top-level news flow over the past 24 hours, which has seen markets relatively calm by the standards of recent weeks.

Markets Today – Relative Calm
Markets Today – Night of hunters

Markets Today – Night of hunters

27 March 2023

Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.

Markets Today – Night of hunters
Markets Today – Janet

Markets Today – Janet

24 March 2023

After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.

Markets Today – Janet
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

23 March 2023

The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%, continued QT, and kept the existing dot plot which pencils in one further hike to 5.00-5.25%. Market reaction was dovish, but was not risk on.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

22 March 2023

Todays podcast   VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Markets Today – So Yesterday

Markets Today – So Yesterday

21 March 2023

It was another fairly volatile day following the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse, though overall the deal seems to have found some cautious acceptance.

Markets Today – So Yesterday
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

20 March 2023

A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

14 March 2023

Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

10 March 2023

Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Markets Today – Get Set

Markets Today – Get Set

9 March 2023

Markets broadly held onto Tuesday’s wild moves, which were driven by US Fed Chair Powell’s Senate Testimony. Overnight Powell spoke again to the House.

Markets Today – Get Set
Markets Today: Warning Sign

Markets Today: Warning Sign

8 March 2023

The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.

Markets Today: Warning Sign
Markets Today: I Feel Better

Markets Today: I Feel Better

6 March 2023

The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.

Markets Today: I Feel Better
Markets Today: (No) Resistance

Markets Today: (No) Resistance

3 March 2023

The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.

Markets Today: (No) Resistance
Markets Today: 99 Luftballons

Markets Today: 99 Luftballons

2 March 2023

The US 10yr finally breached 4.00% for the first time since November, following five days of resistance. A hot German CPI and renewed price pressure in the Manufacturing ISM drove, while risk assets were mixed given the strong China PMIs yesterday

Markets Today: 99 Luftballons
The AUD in February 2023

The AUD in February 2023

1 March 2023

AUD performance in February was an almost exact mirror image of January, AUD/USD trading back down to near 67 cents from above 0.71 cents, having risen from sub-0.67 to above 0.71 in January.

The AUD in February 2023
Markets Today: I won’t back down 

Markets Today: I won’t back down 

1 March 2023

Upside surprises to European inflation out of Spain and France have seen ECB pricing and European yields push higher, with some bleed through into the US. Elsewhere, US equities are little changed, shrugging off soft consumer confidence data, but are and on track for a monthly decline of more than 2%.

Markets Today: I won’t back down 
AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong

AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong

28 February 2023

Overall clients on the Sunshine Coast and Noosa continue to report strong conditions and very tight labour markets. While only a microcosm, the themes from these clients are broadly reflective of what we are picking up in the NAB Business Survey, and it is clear the RBA is not yet in sufficiently restrictive territory to slow demand enough to be confident that inflation will return to the 2-3% target

AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong
Markets Today:  You’ve Got a Friend in Me

Markets Today: You’ve Got a Friend in Me

28 February 2023

A quiet start to the week with no top-tier data. The biggest piece of news was the EU and UK agreeing to a new Northern Ireland trade agreement, now termed the Windsor Agreement.

Markets Today:  You’ve Got a Friend in Me
Markets Today:  Too Hot

Markets Today: Too Hot

27 February 2023

The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.

Markets Today:  Too Hot
NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

23 February 2023

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

Insight

Markets Today: Wages Day

Markets Today: Wages Day

23 February 2023

In Australia yesterday, WPI wages data showed less wages pressure than feared. WPI grew 0.8% q/q and 3.3% y/y, 0.2ppts below the market consensus and RBA expectations.

Markets Today: Wages Day