Essential Asia: Awaiting emerging patterns

We revisited and reassessed our currency forecasts for Asia, in light of a base case scenario of a Clinton victory as well as the lesser probability scenario of a Trump victory.

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October proved to be action-packed for a short working month. The USD index rose over 3.4% thus far in October, showing visible signs of a pick-up in momentum. We believe that the US elections related factors driving the USD’s will stay thematic in coming weeks, and barring a crash in Fed hike expectations for December, until the end of the year.

  • Momentum in the ongoing recovery of the broad USD could lead to emerging patterns for emerging Asian currencies.
  • A Clinton victory looks to be in the bag, which will mean largely status quo for international markets and a gradually firmer USD in 2017. In the meantime, market volatilities are likely to prevail.
  • At the same time, China’s commitment to maintaining a stable CNY with no significant depreciation is being tested.

In this issue

  • Awaiting emerging patterns
  • China Spotlight: Choreographing stability
  • Korea Spotlight: “Samsung”, different tune
  • India Spotlight: Fragile no longer?
  • Singapore Spotlight: Bracing for uncertain times

For full analysis, download report:  Essential Asia: Awaiting emerging patterns (PDF, 3MB)