Essential Asia: Awaiting emerging patterns
We revisited and reassessed our currency forecasts for Asia, in light of a base case scenario of a Clinton victory as well as the lesser probability scenario of a Trump victory.
October proved to be action-packed for a short working month. The USD index rose over 3.4% thus far in October, showing visible signs of a pick-up in momentum. We believe that the US elections related factors driving the USD’s will stay thematic in coming weeks, and barring a crash in Fed hike expectations for December, until the end of the year.
- Momentum in the ongoing recovery of the broad USD could lead to emerging patterns for emerging Asian currencies.
- A Clinton victory looks to be in the bag, which will mean largely status quo for international markets and a gradually firmer USD in 2017. In the meantime, market volatilities are likely to prevail.
- At the same time, China’s commitment to maintaining a stable CNY with no significant depreciation is being tested.
In this issue
- Awaiting emerging patterns
- China Spotlight: Choreographing stability
- Korea Spotlight: “Samsung”, different tune
- India Spotlight: Fragile no longer?
- Singapore Spotlight: Bracing for uncertain times
For full analysis, download report: Essential Asia: Awaiting emerging patterns (PDF, 3MB)