We expect growth in the global economy to remain subdued out to 2026.
Insight
Three decades of stable economic growth, generated by widespread political and economic harmony, is in danger of being eroded by increasing political polarisation.
Our London branch recently held an event focussed on global trade and capital flows in relation to Australia/NZ and the UK/Europe. We’ve pulled together a summary of the insights shared, including the geopolitical shift we’re seeing around the world as a result of the growing imbalance between politics and economics, and how this is affecting trade and capital flows across the globe.
During the past 30 years, “economic growth, market liberalisation, the spread of democracy, and the strengthening of the system advanced hand in hand,” said Lord Mandelson, Co-founder and Chairman of regulatory, political risk and public policy advisory business Global Counsel, in his keynote address.
Lord Mandelson emphasised that “good economics and good politics go together”, but we’re now seeing a geopolitical shift around the world, as a result of a growing imbalance between politics and economics.
“Governments across the world, from the West to Asia, and to a large extent Africa as well, have been in line with each other, and so the global economy has become an efficiency machine with respect to supply chains, the production of goods and services, and the improved mobility of labour,” he said.
By contrast, the rapid emergence of “illiberalism, nationalism and authoritarianism” is currently putting the “efficiency machine” under tremendous strain, he observed.
Download the summary paper to find out more: Global trade and capital flows Australia NZ and the UK Europe
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