Back to the future for RBA policy outlook
Insight
February 5, 2018
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: January 2018
The AUD/USD started 2018 in the same manner it ended 2017. The currency strengthened in January, trading in a 3.4 cents range during the month and ending at 0.8055.
Overview
- Broad USD weakness was the main theme during the month, a pattern already evident in December.
- USD weakness gathered momentum in January despite solid US data prints. The greenback was seemingly overwhelmed by global economic data releases favouring the view that the ongoing broad based global recovery is now being led by Europe and EM.
- The US government shut down followed by stop-gap funding measures also didn’t help the USD cause.
- US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin declared preference for a weaker USD upon arrival in Davos was a source of volatility too.
- Domestic data releases didn’t have much influence, though some support came from stronger than expected retail sales and AUD took a minor hit on weaker than expected Q4 CPI.
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