Author

Rodrigo Catril

“Rodrigo contributes to the creation of trade ideas and research publications, and advises our internal and external clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.”

Rodrigo is a Currency Strategist and member of the FX strategy team at NAB. In this role, he contributes to the creation of trade ideas and research publications, and advises our internal and external clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.

Rodrigo has lived and worked around the world. Before coming to Australia, he worked in London for Henderson Global Investors, firstly as the Head of Risk Measurement and then as a Quantitative Analyst in the Global Fixed Income Hedge Team. In 2009, Rodrigo made his move to NAB as an investment strategist within the private wealth division. He then worked in Rate Strategy for four years, before taking on his role today as Currency Strategist.

Rodrigo was born in Chile, and holds a Bachelor of Commerce, Honours and Masters in Economics from the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. He’s also a CFA charter holder, and has a diploma of Financial Markets (AFMA).

Recently Published Articles

The AUD in November 2023

The AUD in November 2023

1 December 2023

The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.

The AUD in November 2023
Markets Today – The Cool Out

Markets Today – The Cool Out

1 December 2023

After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.

Markets Today – The Cool Out
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

28 November 2023

US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

23 November 2023

Todays podcast   US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Markets Today – Feel Good Time

Markets Today – Feel Good Time

21 November 2023

US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.

Markets Today – Feel Good Time
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

13 November 2023

US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

6 November 2023

Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Markets Today – Muddy Waters

Markets Today – Muddy Waters

30 October 2023

European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.

Markets Today – Muddy Waters
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

26 October 2023

US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

10 October 2023

Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

6 October 2023

Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

4 October 2023

A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.

Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
The AUD in September 2023

The AUD in September 2023

3 October 2023

The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.

The AUD in September 2023
Markets Today – Calm before the storm

Markets Today – Calm before the storm

19 September 2023

US equities start the new week in a sedated manner while European counterparts record sharp declines. Front end yields have a led a bear flattening of the UST curve and the USD is a tad softer

Markets Today – Calm before the storm
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

12 September 2023

Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

5 September 2023

It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Hot and Cold

Markets Today – Hot and Cold

31 August 2023

US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.

Markets Today – Hot and Cold
Markets Today – Play it Safe

Markets Today – Play it Safe

28 August 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.

Markets Today – Play it Safe
Markets Today – Marking Time

Markets Today – Marking Time

23 August 2023

US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.

Markets Today – Marking Time
Markets Today – When it rains it pours

Markets Today – When it rains it pours

15 August 2023

US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD

Markets Today – When it rains it pours
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

10 August 2023

Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Pump It

Markets Today – Pump It

2 August 2023

The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.

Markets Today – Pump It
Markets Today – Better than you

Markets Today – Better than you

28 July 2023

Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.

Markets Today – Better than you
Markets Today – The Waiting

Markets Today – The Waiting

24 July 2023

US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.

Markets Today – The Waiting
Markets Today – Slow and low

Markets Today – Slow and low

18 July 2023

Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.

Markets Today – Slow and low
Markets Today – Getting better

Markets Today – Getting better

17 July 2023

A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.

Markets Today – Getting better
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

14 July 2023

After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
Markets Today – Waiting for the night

Markets Today – Waiting for the night

12 July 2023

Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.

Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Markets Today – Singing from the same hymn sheet

Markets Today – Singing from the same hymn sheet

11 July 2023

US equities began the new week cautiously with hawkish Fed talk and concerns over upcoming earing season playing to the wariness in the air. A decline in UST yields weighed on the USD, but the AUD was unable to perform amid concerns over China and softer bulk commodity prices.

Markets Today – Singing from the same hymn sheet
The AUD in June 2023

The AUD in June 2023

3 July 2023

The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.

The AUD in June 2023
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

3 July 2023

Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

30 June 2023

The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

28 June 2023

Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

20 June 2023

European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

16 June 2023

US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

13 June 2023

After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

5 June 2023

A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

31 May 2023

After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

22 May 2023

US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
Markets Today – Tread water

Markets Today – Tread water

10 May 2023

Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.

Markets Today – Tread water
Markets Today – No imminent crunch

Markets Today – No imminent crunch

9 May 2023

US and EU equities have closed with modest gains while core yields extended Friday’s rise. The Fed Senior Loan Officer revealed a modest deterioration in lending standards alongside a drop in demand for loans, so no evidence of an imminent credit crunch. The USD is little changed with NZD leading a modest outperformance by pro-growth currencies.

Markets Today – No imminent crunch
Markets Today – A lot to digest

Markets Today – A lot to digest

1 May 2023

The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.

Markets Today – A lot to digest
Markets Today – No Help Coming

Markets Today – No Help Coming

27 April 2023

The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.

Markets Today – No Help Coming
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

5 April 2023

A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
Markets Today – It’s All Good

Markets Today – It’s All Good

30 March 2023

The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.

Markets Today – It’s All Good
Markets Today – Night of hunters

Markets Today – Night of hunters

27 March 2023

Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.

Markets Today – Night of hunters
Markets Today – Janet

Markets Today – Janet

24 March 2023

After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.

Markets Today – Janet
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

22 March 2023

Todays podcast   VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

14 March 2023

Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

10 March 2023

Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Markets Today: Warning Sign

Markets Today: Warning Sign

8 March 2023

The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.

Markets Today: Warning Sign
Markets Today:  Too Hot

Markets Today: Too Hot

27 February 2023

The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.

Markets Today:  Too Hot
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing

MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing

18 January 2023

As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.

MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer

15 December 2022

Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
Markets Today: A step too far

Markets Today: A step too far

16 November 2022

It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD

Markets Today: A step too far
Markets Today: A slight reality check

Markets Today: A slight reality check

15 November 2022

The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.

Markets Today: A slight reality check
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race

Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race

2 November 2022

It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.

Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain

11 October 2022

Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates

Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates

9 September 2022

It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation

Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates
Markets Today:  Shopping to the very end

Markets Today: Shopping to the very end

22 August 2022

NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.

Markets Today:  Shopping to the very end
Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ

Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ

17 August 2022

After a negative start, US equities managed to end the day in positive territory supported by better than expected earnings reports from retailers.

Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ
Markets Today: Inflation Day

Markets Today: Inflation Day

10 August 2022

There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.

Markets Today: Inflation Day
The AUD in July 2022

The AUD in July 2022

2 August 2022

The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.

The AUD in July 2022
Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA

Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA

25 July 2022

A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.

Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA
Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric

20 June 2022

US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric
Markets Today: RBA will hike next week

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week

28 April 2022

News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope

9 March 2022

Markets remain volatile unable to confidently price implications from the news flow given the complex state of the global economy

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope
Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting

Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting

3 March 2022

Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories

Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting
Markets Today: Going bond crazy

Markets Today: Going bond crazy

1 November 2021

US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.

Markets Today: Going bond crazy
Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention

11 October 2021

US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention
Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious

Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious

13 September 2021

After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy

Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious
Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering

Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering

10 September 2021

As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.

Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering
Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually

Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually

8 September 2021

US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.

Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth

Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth

2 September 2021

Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).

Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence

Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence

30 August 2021

The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.

Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence
Markets Today:  High hopes keep getting higher

Markets Today: High hopes keep getting higher

26 August 2021

In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.

Markets Today:  High hopes keep getting higher
Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news

Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news

24 August 2021

Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.

Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news
Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

8 August 2021

Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks

Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks

30 July 2021

US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.

Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks
Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

27 July 2021

After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.

Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
Markets Today: The last day of treading water

Markets Today: The last day of treading water

2 July 2021

Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.

Markets Today: The last day of treading water
The AUD in April 2021

The AUD in April 2021

3 May 2021

The AUD/USD traded in a 2.86c range in April with a low of 0.7532 recorded on the first day of the month while a high of 0.7818 printed on April 29.

The AUD in April 2021
Currency spotlight: NZD

Currency spotlight: NZD

26 March 2021

This podcast focuses on the New Zealand dollar – what’s been happening and what lies ahead for the rest of the year.

Currency spotlight: NZD
Markets Today: SLR and all that

Markets Today: SLR and all that

22 March 2021

The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March.

Markets Today: SLR and all that
Currency spotlight: Yen

Currency spotlight: Yen

19 March 2021

This podcast focuses on the Japanese Yen – what’s been happening over the last 12 months and NAB’s forecast.

Currency spotlight: Yen
The AUD in January 2021

The AUD in January 2021

1 February 2021

After the big gains during November and December last year, the first month of 2021 has been a period of consolidation for AUD/USD.

The AUD in January 2021
Markets Today: Gone fishing

Markets Today: Gone fishing

30 November 2020

The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel.

Markets Today: Gone fishing
Markets Today: And another one

Markets Today: And another one

17 November 2020

Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness.

Markets Today: And another one
Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November

Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November

2 November 2020

After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers.

Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November
Markets Today: Pound pummelled

Markets Today: Pound pummelled

11 September 2020

The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement.

Markets Today: Pound pummelled
Markets Today: Russian roulette

Markets Today: Russian roulette

12 August 2020

Markets in Europe seem to have been encouraged by the news that Russia is to start vaccinating key workers in the next few weeks.

Markets Today: Russian roulette
The AUD in May 2020

The AUD in May 2020

12 June 2020

After a solid April, the AUD/USD began May with some trepidation dipping below the 64 cents mark a few times early in the month

The AUD in May 2020