“Rodrigo contributes to the creation of trade ideas and research publications, and advises our internal and external clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.”
Rodrigo is a Currency Strategist and member of the FX strategy team at NAB. In this role, he contributes to the creation of trade ideas and research publications, and advises our internal and external clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.
Rodrigo has lived and worked around the world. Before coming to Australia, he worked in London for Henderson Global Investors, firstly as the Head of Risk Measurement and then as a Quantitative Analyst in the Global Fixed Income Hedge Team. In 2009, Rodrigo made his move to NAB as an investment strategist within the private wealth division. He then worked in Rate Strategy for four years, before taking on his role today as Currency Strategist.
Rodrigo was born in Chile, and holds a Bachelor of Commerce, Honours and Masters in Economics from the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. He’s also a CFA charter holder, and has a diploma of Financial Markets (AFMA).
After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.
US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too
Todays podcast US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]
US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.
US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer
Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.
European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.
US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.
Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.
Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.
A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.
The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.
US equities start the new week in a sedated manner while European counterparts record sharp declines. Front end yields have a led a bear flattening of the UST curve and the USD is a tad softer
Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]
It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.
US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.
US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.
US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD
Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.
The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.
Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.
US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.
Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.
A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.
After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.
Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.
US equities began the new week cautiously with hawkish Fed talk and concerns over upcoming earing season playing to the wariness in the air. A decline in UST yields weighed on the USD, but the AUD was unable to perform amid concerns over China and softer bulk commodity prices.
The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.
Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.
The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.
Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.
European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.
US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.
After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.
A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.
After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.
US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.
Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.
US and EU equities have closed with modest gains while core yields extended Friday’s rise. The Fed Senior Loan Officer revealed a modest deterioration in lending standards alongside a drop in demand for loans, so no evidence of an imminent credit crunch. The USD is little changed with NZD leading a modest outperformance by pro-growth currencies.
The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.
The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.
A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.
The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.
Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.
After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.
Todays podcast VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]
Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.
Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead
Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.
The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.
The flow of economic data surprises has continued overnight and this time it was a uniformly stronger than expected performance of the services sector across major Developed Market economies.
As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.
Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.
In a quitter session, relative to recent times, the risk positive vibes have extended into a third consecutive day with higher global equity markets, lower global rates and a weaker USD.
US equity investors are certainly looking at the glass half full ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow with all major equity indices showing decent gains on the day.
It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD
The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.
It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.
The ECB meeting was the big event for markets last night and as expected the Bank delivered a 75bps hike, but it sounded less committal on future rate hikes.
Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.
It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation
A broad rise in core global yields has been the big news overnight, fuelled by a better-than-expected US ISM report and news UK PM Truss is planning a huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus.
NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.
There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.
As widely expected, the BoE lifted the cash rate by 50bps and retained the option to act forcefully in the future, the Bank now officially sees a recession in the horizon.
The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.
Data releases over the past 24 hours have provided further evidence the global economy is slowing. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI confirmed that China’s reopening rebound is over.
A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.
Draghi’s government looks set to fall after three key parties failed to support him in a confidence vote which could complicate the ECB plans to deliver details on its new anti-fragmentation tool.
US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.
Brent oil recorded its 8-consecutive day of price increases, supported by expectations of a China reopening in addition to the expected EU Russian oil ban.
The market found some relief on the notion that the FOMC Minutes revealed a broad consensus for 50bps hikes in June and July and the possibility for a pause later in the year.
The UK's unemployment rate fell to it's lowest level since 1974 and along with a further pickup in average earnings growth, now see money markets pricing 125bps of BOE rate hikes by December.
News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.
Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories
President Putin spoke to the media saying that "of course" Russia does not want war in Europe, but then added that his security concerns must be addressed and taken seriously .
After a solid run in the previous two days, equities are taking a breather with European shares closing lower amid concerns over the need for a new round of covid restrictions.
Positive Omicron reports coming from South Africa alongside an encouraging preliminary assessment from Dr Fauci over the weekend boosted sentiment with overnight news of policy easing in China, an additional bonus.
Rising COVID infections around Europe and news that Austria will go into lockdown rattled markets on Friday with 10y Bunds leading a decline in core global bond yields.
Some in the market were positioned for an upside surprise in Australian wages data, but that wasn’t forthcoming, with the data bang in line with expectations at 2.2% y/y, back to pre-pandemic levels.
US CPI jumped in October with annual readings printing at new multi-decade highs, the broad base acceleration in prices challenges the transitory narrative and increases the pressure on a patient Fed.
US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.
US equity continue to march to their own beat, oblivious to softer data releases and volatility in rates markets driven by Central Bank policy uncertainty.
Although the US is less exposed to the energy crunch, supply bottle necks are still affecting its economy, particularly in sectors there is a shortage of workers, raw materials, and chips.
US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.
Risk asset have enjoyed a solid rebound overnight following news that the US Senate had reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December.
European and US equities rebounded overnight with a stronger than expected US Services ISM supporting the view that it’s all good, notwithstanding the ongoing rise in energy prices and supply bottlenecks.
After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy
As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.
US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.
Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).
The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.
In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.
Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.
US equities recover into the close calming market sentiment. Spike in VIX and rotation into defensive/tech stock point to a cautionary tale. European equities cannot escape the negative vibes from Asia
The negative vibes from our APAC session extended overnight with softer than expected US data releases not helping the cause. US retail sales were broadly softer, and the NAHB housing market index also came in weaker than expected.
Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.
US equity markets have begun the new week in a tentative manner with a nervous feeling in the air. A slightly softer, but still elevated ISM print added fuel to peak growth concerns and the UST curve bull flattened.
US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.
After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.
More inflation signals with the RBNZ moving towards rate rises. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there are no signs that other central banks will be following in a hurry.
The ECB’S new strategy has driven the Euro higher in a market which has generally been driven down by COVID concerns. NAB’s David de Garis explains what’s changed in the ECB’s 2% inflation target.
The RBA is focused on data not dates, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s Morning Call. It’s data from the US and Germany that’s added caution to markets overnight, along with rising concerns about China.
Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.
Reopening and vaccines are helping economies, but the Delta variant is still a concern for markets says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, explaining today’s sideways moves.
The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week hitting a two-month high after the surprisingly bullish outlook from the Fed, but is the Aussie dollar paying too high a price?
Equities are back on the rise and bond yields are falling, slightly, as investors seem to have accepted the line of most central banks that inflation is only transitory.
The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March.
New positivity with the Dow breaking 30,000 for the first time, due in part to hopes for; a vaccine and a peaceful transition for the Biden administration.
Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoing impacts from COVID-19, with structural differences highlighting the need for the fiscal stimulus that now seems unlikely to happen this year.
After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers.
There’s been a strong reaction in the equity and currency markets to Donald Trump’s sudden decision to stop talks about a fiscal stimulus, even though he tweeted about the need for it whilst in hospital over the weekend.
Equities in the US spent most of the session rising, driven by the news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s experimental vaccine has being fast tracked in the US.
The US Fed has reiterated that they will do whatever it takes to protect the US economy, with inflation expected to remain below 2 percent through to 2022.
Australia has entered a recession but, as Josh Frydenberg was quick to point out yesterday, the Q1 fall in GDP was miniscule compared to most of the rest of the world.
