Author

Rodrigo Catril

“Rodrigo contributes to the creation of trade ideas and research publications, and advises our internal and external clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.”

Rodrigo is a Currency Strategist and member of the FX strategy team at NAB. In this role, he contributes to the creation of trade ideas and research publications, and advises our internal and external clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.

Rodrigo has lived and worked around the world. Before coming to Australia, he worked in London for Henderson Global Investors, firstly as the Head of Risk Measurement and then as a Quantitative Analyst in the Global Fixed Income Hedge Team. In 2009, Rodrigo made his move to NAB as an investment strategist within the private wealth division. He then worked in Rate Strategy for four years, before taking on his role today as Currency Strategist.

Rodrigo was born in Chile, and holds a Bachelor of Commerce, Honours and Masters in Economics from the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. He’s also a CFA charter holder, and has a diploma of Financial Markets (AFMA).

Recently Published Articles

The AUD in November 2023

The AUD in November 2023

1 December 2023

The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.

The AUD in November 2023
Markets Today – The Cool Out

Markets Today – The Cool Out

1 December 2023

After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.

Markets Today – The Cool Out
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

28 November 2023

US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

23 November 2023

Todays podcast   US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Markets Today – Feel Good Time

Markets Today – Feel Good Time

21 November 2023

US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.

Markets Today – Feel Good Time
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

13 November 2023

US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

6 November 2023

Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Markets Today – Muddy Waters

Markets Today – Muddy Waters

30 October 2023

European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.

Markets Today – Muddy Waters
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

26 October 2023

US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

10 October 2023

Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

6 October 2023

Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

4 October 2023

A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.

Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
The AUD in September 2023

The AUD in September 2023

3 October 2023

The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.

The AUD in September 2023
Markets Today – Calm before the storm

Markets Today – Calm before the storm

19 September 2023

US equities start the new week in a sedated manner while European counterparts record sharp declines. Front end yields have a led a bear flattening of the UST curve and the USD is a tad softer

Markets Today – Calm before the storm
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

12 September 2023

Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

5 September 2023

It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Hot and Cold

Markets Today – Hot and Cold

31 August 2023

US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.

Markets Today – Hot and Cold
Markets Today – Play it Safe

Markets Today – Play it Safe

28 August 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.

Markets Today – Play it Safe
Markets Today – Marking Time

Markets Today – Marking Time

23 August 2023

US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.

Markets Today – Marking Time
Markets Today – When it rains it pours

Markets Today – When it rains it pours

15 August 2023

US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD

Markets Today – When it rains it pours
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

10 August 2023

Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Pump It

Markets Today – Pump It

2 August 2023

The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.

Markets Today – Pump It
Markets Today – Better than you

Markets Today – Better than you

28 July 2023

Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.

Markets Today – Better than you
Markets Today – The Waiting

Markets Today – The Waiting

24 July 2023

US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.

Markets Today – The Waiting
Markets Today – Slow and low

Markets Today – Slow and low

18 July 2023

Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.

Markets Today – Slow and low
Markets Today – Getting better

Markets Today – Getting better

17 July 2023

A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.

Markets Today – Getting better
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

14 July 2023

After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
Markets Today – Waiting for the night

Markets Today – Waiting for the night

12 July 2023

Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.

Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Markets Today – Singing from the same hymn sheet

Markets Today – Singing from the same hymn sheet

11 July 2023

US equities began the new week cautiously with hawkish Fed talk and concerns over upcoming earing season playing to the wariness in the air. A decline in UST yields weighed on the USD, but the AUD was unable to perform amid concerns over China and softer bulk commodity prices.

Markets Today – Singing from the same hymn sheet
The AUD in June 2023

The AUD in June 2023

3 July 2023

The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.

The AUD in June 2023
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

3 July 2023

Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

30 June 2023

The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

28 June 2023

Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

20 June 2023

European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

16 June 2023

US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

13 June 2023

After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

5 June 2023

A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

31 May 2023

After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

22 May 2023

US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
Markets Today – Tread water

Markets Today – Tread water

10 May 2023

Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.

Markets Today – Tread water
Markets Today – No imminent crunch

Markets Today – No imminent crunch

9 May 2023

US and EU equities have closed with modest gains while core yields extended Friday’s rise. The Fed Senior Loan Officer revealed a modest deterioration in lending standards alongside a drop in demand for loans, so no evidence of an imminent credit crunch. The USD is little changed with NZD leading a modest outperformance by pro-growth currencies.

Markets Today – No imminent crunch
Markets Today – A lot to digest

Markets Today – A lot to digest

1 May 2023

The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.

Markets Today – A lot to digest
Markets Today – No Help Coming

Markets Today – No Help Coming

27 April 2023

The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.

Markets Today – No Help Coming
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

5 April 2023

A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
Markets Today – It’s All Good

Markets Today – It’s All Good

30 March 2023

The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.

Markets Today – It’s All Good
Markets Today – Night of hunters

Markets Today – Night of hunters

27 March 2023

Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.

Markets Today – Night of hunters
Markets Today – Janet

Markets Today – Janet

24 March 2023

After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.

Markets Today – Janet
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

22 March 2023

Todays podcast   VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

14 March 2023

Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

10 March 2023

Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Markets Today: Warning Sign

Markets Today: Warning Sign

8 March 2023

The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.

Markets Today: Warning Sign
Markets Today:  Too Hot

Markets Today: Too Hot

27 February 2023

The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.

Markets Today:  Too Hot
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing

MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing

18 January 2023

As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.

MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer

15 December 2022

Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
Markets Today: A step too far

Markets Today: A step too far

16 November 2022

It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD

Markets Today: A step too far
Markets Today: A slight reality check

Markets Today: A slight reality check

15 November 2022

The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.

Markets Today: A slight reality check
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race

Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race

2 November 2022

It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.

Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain

11 October 2022

Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates

Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates

9 September 2022

It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation

Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates
Markets Today:  Shopping to the very end

Markets Today: Shopping to the very end

22 August 2022

NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.

Markets Today:  Shopping to the very end
Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ

Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ

17 August 2022

After a negative start, US equities managed to end the day in positive territory supported by better than expected earnings reports from retailers.

Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ
Markets Today: Inflation Day

Markets Today: Inflation Day

10 August 2022

There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.

Markets Today: Inflation Day
The AUD in July 2022

The AUD in July 2022

2 August 2022

The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.

The AUD in July 2022
Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA

Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA

25 July 2022

A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.

Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA
Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric

20 June 2022

US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric
Markets Today: RBA will hike next week

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week

28 April 2022

News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope

9 March 2022

Markets remain volatile unable to confidently price implications from the news flow given the complex state of the global economy

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope
Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting

Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting

3 March 2022

Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories

Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting
Markets Today: Going bond crazy

Markets Today: Going bond crazy

1 November 2021

US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.

Markets Today: Going bond crazy
Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention

11 October 2021

US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention
Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious

Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious

13 September 2021

After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy

Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious
Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering

Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering

10 September 2021

As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.

Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering
Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually

Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually

8 September 2021

US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.

Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth

Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth

2 September 2021

Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).

Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence

Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence

30 August 2021

The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.

Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence
Markets Today:  High hopes keep getting higher

Markets Today: High hopes keep getting higher

26 August 2021

In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.

Markets Today:  High hopes keep getting higher
Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news

Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news

24 August 2021

Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.

Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news
Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

8 August 2021

Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks

Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks

30 July 2021

US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.

Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks
Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

27 July 2021

After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.

Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
Markets Today: The last day of treading water

Markets Today: The last day of treading water

2 July 2021

Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.

Markets Today: The last day of treading water
The AUD in April 2021

The AUD in April 2021

3 May 2021

The AUD/USD traded in a 2.86c range in April with a low of 0.7532 recorded on the first day of the month while a high of 0.7818 printed on April 29.

The AUD in April 2021
Currency spotlight: NZD

Currency spotlight: NZD

26 March 2021

This podcast focuses on the New Zealand dollar – what’s been happening and what lies ahead for the rest of the year.

Currency spotlight: NZD
Markets Today: SLR and all that

Markets Today: SLR and all that

22 March 2021

The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March.

Markets Today: SLR and all that
Currency spotlight: Yen

Currency spotlight: Yen

19 March 2021

This podcast focuses on the Japanese Yen – what’s been happening over the last 12 months and NAB’s forecast.

Currency spotlight: Yen
The AUD in January 2021

The AUD in January 2021

1 February 2021

After the big gains during November and December last year, the first month of 2021 has been a period of consolidation for AUD/USD.

The AUD in January 2021
Markets Today: Gone fishing

Markets Today: Gone fishing

30 November 2020

The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel.

Markets Today: Gone fishing
Markets Today: And another one

Markets Today: And another one

17 November 2020

Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness.

Markets Today: And another one
Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November

Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November

2 November 2020

After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers.

Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November
Markets Today: Pound pummelled

Markets Today: Pound pummelled

11 September 2020

The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement.

Markets Today: Pound pummelled
Markets Today: Russian roulette

Markets Today: Russian roulette

12 August 2020

Markets in Europe seem to have been encouraged by the news that Russia is to start vaccinating key workers in the next few weeks.

Markets Today: Russian roulette
The AUD in May 2020

The AUD in May 2020

12 June 2020

After a solid April, the AUD/USD began May with some trepidation dipping below the 64 cents mark a few times early in the month

The AUD in May 2020
The AUD in December 2019

The AUD in December 2019

6 January 2020

December was a good month for risk assets and the AUD, as the US and China agreed on their much-awaited Phase 1 trade deal and key global economic data releases improved.

The AUD in December 2019
The AUD in November 2019

The AUD in November 2019

3 December 2019

The AUD/USD drifted lower over November as progress towards achieving a Phase 1 US-China trade deal slowed, casting doubts on the likelihood of a deal in coming weeks.

The AUD in November 2019
The AUD in October 2019

The AUD in October 2019

15 November 2019

The AUD/USD rose during October on the back of improved global risk sentiment, courtesy of progress on US-China trade talks and Brexit developments.

The AUD in October 2019
The AUD in September

The AUD in September

9 October 2019

The downtrend in the AUD/USD took a pause in September, where the currency ended the month 0.3 cents higher than where it began.

The AUD in September
The AUD in August 2019

The AUD in August 2019

2 September 2019

Offshore events dominated AUD movements in August as the US-China trade war escalated again and pressure for the Fed and other Central Banks to do more also increased.

The AUD in August 2019
The AUD in July 2019

The AUD in July 2019

13 August 2019

After making a high of 0.7081 on July 19th it was pretty much one-way traffic south for AUD/USD from then until month end.

The AUD in July 2019
The AUD in May 2019

The AUD in May 2019

12 June 2019

The AUD/USD came under pressure in May, as renewed trade tensions saw the currency break through the 70-cent floor it had been testing since early February.

The AUD in May 2019
The AUD in April 2019

The AUD in April 2019

3 May 2019

The AUD/USD traded in a range of just over 2 cents in April, with (very) brief and small-scale forays above and below the 0.70 to 0.72 range that had confined it since early February.

The AUD in April 2019
The AUD in March 2019

The AUD in March 2019

16 April 2019

The AUD/USD traded in a tight range of just 1.65 cents in March, the narrowest range since August 2014 and closed the month at 0.7096, essentially right back to where it started.

The AUD in March 2019
The AUD in February 2019

The AUD in February 2019

1 March 2019

The AUD/USD was conflicted in February, as improvements in risk sentiment and higher commodity prices pulled the currency higher, but a softer domestic economic outlook and a more dovish RBA acted as an offsetting force.

The AUD in February 2019
Markets Today: Rock steady

Markets Today: Rock steady

20 February 2019

The US dollar is a little weaker this morning as the deadline for US tariffs on Chinese goods looms.

Markets Today: Rock steady
The AUD in November 2018

The AUD in November 2018

3 December 2018

After rallying at the beginning of the month, AUD/USD mostly range-traded between 72 and 73 cents during the rest of November.

The AUD in November 2018
Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope

Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope

2 November 2018

The US dollar staged a swift reversal overnight, with the spot index falling significantly. We’ve also seen US stocks on the rise, along with significant leaps forward for the Aussie dollar and the pound, whilst oil falls sharply.

Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope
The AUD in October 2018

The AUD in October 2018

1 November 2018

The AUD/USD continued its downtrend in October, reaching a fresh low of 0.7023 on the 26th of the month, a level not seen since February 2016.

The AUD in October 2018
Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you

Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you

18 September 2018

The Aussie dollar was on the rise overnight, even as all eyes and ears were waiting on an announcement on the next round of tariffs from the White House.

Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you
Markets Today: Not happy Jay

Markets Today: Not happy Jay

22 August 2018

What influence has President Trump’s discontent with the work of Jerome ‘Jay’ Powell had on the markets?

Markets Today: Not happy Jay
Markets Today: Closer to fine

Markets Today: Closer to fine

18 July 2018

The move higher in front end yields boosted the USD, although the greenback was already on the ascendency early in the overnight sessions.

Markets Today: Closer to fine
Markets Today: Jump

Markets Today: Jump

25 June 2018

President Trump’s protectionist measures and OPEC’s increased oil production could be the two major market influences this morning.

Markets Today: Jump
Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day

Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day

21 June 2018

The markets have moved very little today as investors contemplate the next steps in the tariff battle between the US and China. Even the EU response, with tariffs to follow on Harleys, Levis and Bourbon, did little to stir a response.

Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day
Markets Today: Italian Summer

Markets Today: Italian Summer

29 May 2018

Italy looks set to go back to the polls. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at the market reaction on today’s Morning Call podcast.

Markets Today: Italian Summer
The AUD in April 2018

The AUD in April 2018

4 May 2018

April was a month of two halves for AUD/USD. Get the picture with our annotated chart.

The AUD in April 2018
Markets Today: 23 April 2018

Markets Today: 23 April 2018

23 April 2018

If Steven Mnuchin reaches a trade pact with China, will it create enough confidence to push the Aussie dollar out of its trading range?

Markets Today: 23 April 2018
Markets Today: And the beat goes on

Markets Today: And the beat goes on

18 April 2018

In a busy #MorningCall podcast @NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks to Phil Dobbie about US earnings, trade concessions, IMF forecasts, UK wages, Chinese retail, the RBA minutes, Bank of Canada, and more!

Markets Today: And the beat goes on
Markets Today: Run over by a truck

Markets Today: Run over by a truck

17 April 2018

It’s company earnings and global politics driving markets today. @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil Dobbie to talk about President Trump, Shinzo Abe, Theresa May, Michael Cohen and the next Deputy Governor of the US Federal Reserve.

Markets Today: Run over by a truck
Markets Today: Possibly Maybe

Markets Today: Possibly Maybe

13 April 2018

Another day, another direction for US equities. Today they’re back up (for now) on easing tensions over Syria (for now). Join @NAB’s Gavin Friend and Phil Dobbie on #TheMorningCall.

Markets Today: Possibly Maybe
Markets Today: The Heat Is On

Markets Today: The Heat Is On

5 April 2018

Equity markets fall then bounce on China tariffs, then talks of trade talks. Get up to speed on the #tradewar latest on #TheMorningCall from @NAB.

Markets Today: The Heat Is On
Markets Today: Mo Money Mo Problems

Markets Today: Mo Money Mo Problems

4 April 2018

The FAANGs bite back – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Tapas Strickland about a slight market bounce, plus rising funding costs for the US government.

Markets Today: Mo Money Mo Problems
Markets Today: We used to be friends

Markets Today: We used to be friends

21 March 2018

The share markets rebounded today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s a positive sign that the reaction was contagion from tech stocks rather than anything more lasting.

Markets Today: We used to be friends
Markets Today: Breathe

Markets Today: Breathe

15 March 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the market reaction to this, and to Theresa May’s announcement that 23 Russian diplomats will be sent packing in response to the Salisbury nerve agent attack.

Markets Today: Breathe
Markets Today: 14 March 2018

Markets Today: 14 March 2018

14 March 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Cattril about the market impact of a President following a “my way or the highway” agenda.

Markets Today: 14 March 2018
AUD Annotated Chart: February 2018

AUD Annotated Chart: February 2018

13 March 2018

In February the AUD/USD gave back all of its January gains and some more. February was a month characterised by an increase in market volatility, particularly in equities amid US inflationary concerns alongside a rise in US bond yields and their implicit valuation concerns for physical and risk assets.

AUD Annotated Chart: February 2018
Markets Today: 8 March 2018

Markets Today: 8 March 2018

8 March 2018

Who keeps some balance on trade now Cohn has quit? Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the volatility around President Trump’s growing tariff talk

Markets Today: 8 March 2018
Markets Today: Superman

Markets Today: Superman

2 March 2018

Lots of numbers out overnight but it’s politics driving the markets right now, with President Trump saying he will sign the order next week to impose tariffs on steel imports.

Markets Today: Superman
Markets Today: That don’t impress me much

Markets Today: That don’t impress me much

22 February 2018

Today’s Podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether they could lift bond yields, particularly given low interest in this week’s big auctions from the Treasury.  Gavin also explains why the UK’s jobless figures are not as bad as they seem, how Brexit talks are reaching the pointy end, and what will be the consequences […]

Markets Today: That don’t impress me much
Markets Today: Dog days are over

Markets Today: Dog days are over

8 February 2018

Well it might be too early to call the recent rout in equity markets over, but price action over the past 24hrs suggests calmness has returned with European equities rebounding while US equities are relatively steady.

Markets Today: Dog days are over
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: January 2018

AUD/USD Annotated Chart: January 2018

5 February 2018

The AUD/USD started 2018 in the same manner it ended 2017. The currency strengthened in January, trading in a 3.4 cents range during the month and ending at 0.8055.

AUD/USD Annotated Chart: January 2018
Markets Today: Blowin in the wind

Markets Today: Blowin in the wind

2 February 2018

The USD has resumes its downtrend with Euro strength the main culprit and with USD indices trading sub key support levels the big question is how long will the Dollar fall, if only Bob Dylan new the answer.

Markets Today: Blowin in the wind
Markets Today: The only way is up

Markets Today: The only way is up

30 January 2018

UST yields have led the sell-off in core global bond yields and for a change the USD has responded to the UST led rise in yields and outperforms across the board.

Markets Today: The only way is up
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: December 2017

AUD/USD Annotated Chart: December 2017

12 January 2018

The AUD/USD started December on a positive note boosted by USD weakness amid tax reform uncertainty and news reports speculating on Russia’s intervention in US politics.

AUD/USD Annotated Chart: December 2017
Markets Today: 10 January 2018

Markets Today: 10 January 2018

10 January 2018

Oil prices trade to a new three year high and excluding JPY, the USD is stronger across the board. Meanwhile, US equities have made new highs, yet again! and all major European indices closed in positive territory.

Markets Today: 10 January 2018
Markets Today: 8 January 2018

Markets Today: 8 January 2018

8 January 2018

A mixed US labour report and softish ISM non-manufacturing print had minimal impact on the USD and US Treasury yields while global equities have continued on their merry way higher amid a supportive global economic backdrop.

Markets Today: 8 January 2018
Markets Today: Vote-A-Rama

Markets Today: Vote-A-Rama

19 December 2017

US equities have started the week on a solid footing boosted by the prospect of US tax reform becoming law later in the week.

Markets Today: Vote-A-Rama
Markets Today: Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Man

Markets Today: Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Man

15 December 2017

US equities retained the negative tone seen during the European session and have been unable to trade in positive territory amid concerns over the prospects for US tax reform.

Markets Today: Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Man
Markets Today: The Letter

Markets Today: The Letter

13 December 2017

Amid light trading US equities are a little bit higher (NASDAQ is flat) and European equities closed in positive territory.

Markets Today: The Letter
Markets Today: The beat goes on

Markets Today: The beat goes on

11 December 2017

If it wasn’t for Friday’s US labour market data, Lionel Richie’s “All night long” would have been a great option for a title today, highlighting PM May’s sleepless effort to strike a deal about a deal with the EU.

Markets Today: The beat goes on
Markets Today: Show me the money!

Markets Today: Show me the money!

6 December 2017

The USD is stronger against most currencies and the AUD has given back all of yesterday’s gains amid overnight softness in metal prices.

Markets Today: Show me the money!
Markets Today: It’s all good (very good)

Markets Today: It’s all good (very good)

30 November 2017

Nothing like starting the day with some good old Australian hip hop. Funkroar 2011 hit “it’s all good (very good)” nicely captures the key upbeat message from Fed Chair Yellen appearance before Congress alongside the better than expected US and EU economic data.

Markets Today: It’s all good (very good)
Markets Today: Same Love

Markets Today: Same Love

29 November 2017

It has been a pretty busy night with Fed Chair in waiting Powell appearance before a Senate committee, mixed US data releases, confirmation of UK-EU Brexit bill (after some confusion), North Korea launching a ballistic missile and lastly the US Senate Budget Committee has just announced a tax bill has been sent to the Senate for voting.

Markets Today: Same Love
Markets Today: She is leaving home

Markets Today: She is leaving home

21 November 2017

The overnight session saw an improvement in risk sentiment with European equities closing in positive territory while US equities are also having a good day so far.

Markets Today: She is leaving home
Markets Today: Talking Heads

Markets Today: Talking Heads

15 November 2017

Caution remains the main theme in markets with equities softer on both sides of the Atlantic weighed down by the energy and materials sectors amid softer oil and metal prices.

Markets Today: Talking Heads
Markets Today: Taylor

Markets Today: Taylor

18 October 2017

The USD has continued to eke out small gains amid ongoing speculation over Fed Chair nomination, US equities are flat (DJ briefly traded above 23k for the first time) and commodities are mixed.

Markets Today: Taylor
Markets Today: I’m waiting for the man

Markets Today: I’m waiting for the man

17 October 2017

It has been a quiet start to the week in the Northern Hemisphere, but of note the USD is slightly stronger across the board and commodities also had a good night.

Markets Today: I’m waiting for the man
Markets Today: A momentary lapse of …

Markets Today: A momentary lapse of …

12 October 2017

Pink Floyd’s first album without Roger Waters “A Momentary Lapse of Reason (Inflation?)” probably captures the key take-away from the Sep 20 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Markets Today: A momentary lapse of …
Markets Today: Pound the alarm

Markets Today: Pound the alarm

6 October 2017

After taking a breather, the USD has regained its mojo partly driven by concerns over other currencies along with a supportive domestic backdrop.

Markets Today: Pound the alarm
Markets Today: Running on Faith

Markets Today: Running on Faith

14 September 2017

While equity markets had a day of consolidation, the USD and US Treasury yields had a decent move higher aided by increasing hopes over US Tax reform.

Markets Today: Running on Faith
Markets Today: Doctor! Doctor!

Markets Today: Doctor! Doctor!

11 September 2017

USD indices closed in negative territory on Friday, but managed to recover a bit of ground in the overnight session, thanks to a rise in UST yields and a softer CAD after a mixed employment report.

Markets Today: Doctor! Doctor!
Markets Today: All eyez on me

Markets Today: All eyez on me

4 September 2017

"All Eyez On Me" is a single by 2Pac’s fourth album by the same name and it is one of the most acclaimed hip-hop albums of the 1990s.

Markets Today: All eyez on me
Markets Today: Jackson

Markets Today: Jackson

24 August 2017

Yesterday’s USD resurgence accompanied by an improvement in risk appetite and hopes of progress on US tax reform came to an abrupt end courtesy of President Trump threat of a government shutdown, if funding isn’t included for the border wall promised in his campaign.

Markets Today: Jackson
Markets Today: Gone Daddy gone

Markets Today: Gone Daddy gone

21 August 2017

The lack of key data releases and major corporate earnings news contributed to Friday’s quiet trading session with major US equity indices trading in and out of positive territory.

Markets Today: Gone Daddy gone
Markets Today: Animal

Markets Today: Animal

16 August 2017

Looking through Spotify this morning I was surprised to see that “Animal” is quite a popular song title. I was going with Pearl Jam 1994 hit, but then I noticed I could have gone with Deft Leppard or more recently Ellie Goulding or Kesha would have also done the trick.

Markets Today: Animal
Markets Today: Jump

Markets Today: Jump

11 August 2017

Looking at the overnight chart US equities opened lower following the moves from Europe and Asia.

Markets Today: Jump
Markets Today: Bridging the gap

Markets Today: Bridging the gap

9 August 2017

Bridging the gap is a song by American rapper Nas and as a tribute to his father the song aims to bridge the gap from blues, to jazz, to rap.

Markets Today: Bridging the gap
Markets Today: Summer Time

Markets Today: Summer Time

3 August 2017

The Dow Jones moved up to 22000 for the first time ever boosted by Apple’s better than expected sales report - Apple shares rose 4.7% to 157.14 after posting a 7% increase in revenue.

Markets Today: Summer Time
Markets Today: Levels

Markets Today: Levels

25 July 2017

The AUD reached an intraday high yesterday of 0.7968 but has traded with a softer tone during the overnight session.

Markets Today: Levels
Markets Today: How much a dollar cost

Markets Today: How much a dollar cost

19 July 2017

The USD sell off that began yesterday during our day session continued overnight following senate Republicans’ failure to push through their healthcare reform.

Markets Today: How much a dollar cost
Markets Today: I love it

Markets Today: I love it

12 July 2017

After trading to an overnight low of 0.7605, the AUD has staged a decent recovery reaching an overnight high of 0.7643 and settling around 0.7640 currently.

Markets Today: I love it
Markets Today: Little Wonder

Markets Today: Little Wonder

4 July 2017

Bowie’s song titles have an amazing suitability for morning note titles, lyrics on the other hand don’t always suit.

Markets Today: Little Wonder
Markets Today: Every day I love you less and less

Markets Today: Every day I love you less and less

28 June 2017

As summer times kicks into full mode in Europe, ECB President Draghi play list is slowly but surely moving away from the likes of Olivia Newton John “Hopelessly devoted to you” , being replaced by more upbeat tunes such as Kaiser Chiefs “Every day I love you less and less”.

Markets Today: Every day I love you less and less
Markets Today: Easy

Markets Today: Easy

20 June 2017

On my way home last night I thought the Spice Girls were a strong candidate for a song title today. Brexit negotiations started overnight and Wannabe (“Tell me what you want”) would have been a good option.

Markets Today: Easy
Markets Today: Calm before the storm

Markets Today: Calm before the storm

6 June 2017

It has been a quiet overnight session ahead of what could be a stormy Thursday with the ECB, UK election and Comey’s testimony all occurring on the same day.

Markets Today: Calm before the storm
Markets Today: Strong enough

Markets Today: Strong enough

5 June 2017

Sheryl Crow’s hit ”strong enough” finds Crow frustrated in a relationship and asking the question, "Are you strong enough to be my man?". ell Friday night was all about the US jobs report and no doubt a similar question (without the man bit of course) crossed investors’ mind.

Markets Today: Strong enough
Markets Today: The end of May

Markets Today: The end of May

1 June 2017

It has been a quiet end to the month of May, nevertheless the month has ended with a few themes raising question marks over the near term outlook for markets.

Markets Today: The end of May
Markets Today: Mind the Gap

Markets Today: Mind the Gap

29 May 2017

Ahead of a long weekend US equities ended the week in a relatively subdued note, oil prices recovered a bit of lost ground since the drop in prices post the OPEC’s production cuts extension announcement and US treasury yields were little changed.

Markets Today: Mind the Gap
Markets Today: Dollar Days

Markets Today: Dollar Days

22 May 2017

The recovery in US equities continued on Friday and unlike Thursday, European equities also managed to record some gains.

Markets Today: Dollar Days
Markets Today: Fuel

Markets Today: Fuel

16 May 2017

Wow! If you are looking for a quick wake me up antidote, try playing Metallica at 5:30 in the morning, trust me you won’t go wrong.

Markets Today: Fuel
Markets Today: Playing with fire

Markets Today: Playing with fire

11 May 2017

The RBNZ made its policy rate announcement a few minutes ago and while the OCR was left unchanged at 1.75% as expected, the Bank failed to deliver a tightening bias.

Markets Today: Playing with fire
Markets Today: After the after party

Markets Today: After the after party

9 May 2017

After just over 24 hours since Macron’s French presidential election win, the Euro and European equities are feeling a bit hangover following a solid run in the previous two weeks.

Markets Today: After the after party
Markets Today: Groove Armada

Markets Today: Groove Armada

20 April 2017

US equities have come under pressure in the past few hours weighted down by a sharp fall in oil prices following reports of an increase in gasoline inventories.

Markets Today: Groove Armada
Markets Today: Muddy Waters

Markets Today: Muddy Waters

12 April 2017

The global macro picture has been muddied by a rise in geopolitical tensions, economic data releases overnight have been largely ignored and safe haven assets have outperformed.

Markets Today: Muddy Waters
Markets Today: Under pressure

Markets Today: Under pressure

31 March 2017

European and US equities have brushed aside the negative lead from Asia which saw the Shanghai composite down nearly 1% on the day and its fourth session of declines.

Markets Today: Under pressure
Markets Today: No way Jose!

Markets Today: No way Jose!

27 March 2017

The USD (BBDX) was little changed on Friday while US equities and US Treasury yields ended the week a little bit lower reflecting a mild risk off tone.

Markets Today: No way Jose!
Markets Today: Don’t let me down

Markets Today: Don’t let me down

24 March 2017

Some mornings coming up with a title is a real struggle and then others like today you are spoil for choice. I have no idea if Donald Trump is a Beatles’ fan, but if he is ‘Don’t let me down’ would be one of those songs that he couldn’t get out of his head right now.

Markets Today: Don’t let me down
Markets Today: Parting Shot

Markets Today: Parting Shot

17 March 2017

US equities have reversed about half of yesterday’s post Fed rally, the USD is a little bit softer and UST yields are a little bit higher.

Markets Today: Parting Shot
Markets Today: ECB Creaking Door

Markets Today: ECB Creaking Door

10 March 2017

As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR performed and it has also pushed bond yields higher.

Markets Today: ECB Creaking Door
Markets Today: Hot n’ Cold

Markets Today: Hot n’ Cold

3 March 2017

Hot n Cold is one of Perry’s 2008 hits and is not a bad title for today’s daily. Hot events overnight include EU inflation jumping to a 4 year high of 2%, US jobless claims falling to a 44 year low of 223k and Snap, the parent company of message app Snapchat, rallying 41% on […]

Markets Today: Hot n’ Cold
Markets Today: Europa

Markets Today: Europa

21 February 2017

With the US out celebrating president’s day, Europe was always going to be the focus in the overnight session. My dad used to listen to Santana, so the first song that came to mind was “Europa”, a mellow song with no lyrics, but notable for Santana’s guitar solo.

Markets Today: Europa
Markets Today: Beware the ides of March

Markets Today: Beware the ides of March

15 February 2017

Reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the senate triggered a sell-off in US Treasury yields and a broad USD rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next FOMC meeting in March.

Markets Today: Beware the ides of March
Markets Today: Alive and kicking

Markets Today: Alive and kicking

13 February 2017

Last week the USD regained its mojo largely thanks to President Trump's hint of a phenomenal tax policy announcement and on Friday the USD waivered, particularly against JPY when at a joint press conference with Japan’s PM Abe, President Trump responded to a question about currency devaluation saying that "we will all eventually...be at a level playing field." and then added "That's the only way you can fairly compete in trade”.

Markets Today: Alive and kicking
Markets Today: The quiet achiever

Markets Today: The quiet achiever

8 February 2017

In what has been a quiet night of data releases and tweets from President Trump, the USD has been the quiet achiever amid simmering political and fiscal uncertainties in Europe, softer oil prices, flat US equities and lower US Treasury yields.

Markets Today: The quiet achiever
Markets Today: Blue Monday

Markets Today: Blue Monday

31 January 2017

New Order’s Blue Monday is the best-selling 12 inch single of all time in Britain (mmm I wonder how many 12 inch singles are out there!) and is also the longest charting single at 7:25.

Markets Today: Blue Monday
Markets Today: Numero Uno

Markets Today: Numero Uno

23 January 2017

In a defiant and brief speech, President Trump made it clear that from now on “It's going to be only America first” and in what has now become a great economic debate he reiterated his view that “Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength”. Against this view, history and economic theory tells us that protectionism usually involves an increase in tariffs and a decline in trade.

Markets Today: Numero Uno
Markets Today: Happy Birthday

Markets Today: Happy Birthday

17 January 2017

In 1979 President Carter endorsed a bill to have a holiday in honour of Martin Luther King (MLK), but a Conservative Congress at the time refused to pass the bill. Eventually President Reagan signed the holiday into law in 1983 and it was first observed three years later.

Markets Today: Happy Birthday
Markets Today: All shook up

Markets Today: All shook up

12 January 2017

The overnight session has been a tale of two halves, a dull affair ahead of Trump press conference and a volatile session post.

Markets Today: All shook up
Markets Today: Synergy

Markets Today: Synergy

9 January 2017

When thinking about a title for today’s note and the impact the US labour market report had on Friday’s session, Aristotle’s quote ” the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seemed quite fitting, but way too long for a title.

Markets Today: Synergy
Markets Today: Close but no cigar

Markets Today: Close but no cigar

22 December 2016

It seems unlikely that Italy’s largest Bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, will meet today’s timetable to raise five billion Euros and provide a lifeline beyond March.

Markets Today: Close but no cigar
Markets Today: Two become three

Markets Today: Two become three

15 December 2016

The US Fed delivered their anticipated 25 basis point rate hike this morning, but they surprised markets by announcing an expectation of three further rises in 2017, one more than previously anticipated.

Markets Today: Two become three
Markets Today: Born this way

Markets Today: Born this way

7 December 2016

Back in March 2011 Lady Gaga’s hit “Born this way” was leading the music chart in Australia and Pink was number one on the Billboard chart.

Markets Today: Born this way
Markets Today: Pay 2 Play

Markets Today: Pay 2 Play

2 December 2016

Talk of oil cuts has been enough to see prices rise again overnight, up 15% this week. So what’s it doing to bond yields and the US dollar?

Markets Today: Pay 2 Play
Markets Today: Deal or no deal

Markets Today: Deal or no deal

30 November 2016

The key event this week will come from Vienna where ministers from OPEC are scheduled to meet and hopefully finalise the first cut in oil production in eight years.

Markets Today: Deal or no deal
Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey

Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey

25 November 2016

In his 2007 best seller “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb uses the life of a thanksgiving turkey as an analogy for explaining a black swan occurrence i.e. a tail event that is so remote that is completely unforeseen.

Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey
Markets Today: For what is worth

Markets Today: For what is worth

15 November 2016

Leonard Cohen passed away last week and on my way in I was listening to a mix of folk tunes with the hope of finding one of his songs as a title for today’s note.

Markets Today: For what is worth
Markets Today: Bart to the future

Markets Today: Bart to the future

10 November 2016

16 Years ago the Simpsons episode “Bart to the future” aired for the first time with a plot partly consisting of Lisa becoming president of the United States. Lisa tries to get the country out of financial trouble due to the high levels of debt left by the previous president, Donald Trump.

Markets Today: Bart to the future
Markets Today: The final countdown

Markets Today: The final countdown

8 November 2016

Today feels a bit like a trip into the unknown with the US election entering its final stage as Americans head to the polls tonight.

Markets Today: The final countdown
Markets Today: Playing it cool

Markets Today: Playing it cool

1 November 2016

There was no scary ending to the month of October with markets in general playing it cool ahead of a busy week of data releases, central bank meetings and what is turning out to be a fairly dramatic US presidential election.

Markets Today: Playing it cool
Markets Today: Turbulence

Markets Today: Turbulence

27 October 2016

Turbulence, a little known track by American pop punk band Bowling for Soup appears to be an appropriate title for today’s note. The song was written by Jaret Reddick after he asked a pilot whether he found turbulence frightening.

Markets Today: Turbulence
Markets Today: Merger Monday

Markets Today: Merger Monday

25 October 2016

While European markets started the week in a lethargic mood, trading sideways for most of the day, US stocks opened higher following a series of merger announcements with the market also getting a boost from better than expected earnings reports.

Markets Today: Merger Monday
Markets Today: Cautious Man

Markets Today: Cautious Man

18 October 2016

Bruce Springsteen cautious man tells the story of a man that has doubts about his marriage and in a similar way markets have started the week in a tentative mood reflecting some concerns on the outlook.

Markets Today: Cautious Man
Markets Today: Midnight oil

Markets Today: Midnight oil

11 October 2016

Well it wasn't exactly midnight, but close enough. In a night that was expected to be relatively quiet given the US was celebrating Columbus Day, oil prices provided some fireworks after President Putin announced his support to a production freeze or even cut in oil output.

Markets Today: Midnight oil
Markets Today: Inception

Markets Today: Inception

7 October 2016

Last night the ECB released its accounts of its September policy meeting and as expected there was no mention of tapering, the Bank reiterated its willingness and ability to ease further, if needed, while concerns over the lack of an uplift in core inflation was also evident.

Markets Today: Inception
Markets Today: Disturbia

Markets Today: Disturbia

5 October 2016

Core global yields and the Euro have been disturbed by a Bloomberg report claiming ECB officials were considering QE tapering while early in the session the Pound was under renewed pressure trading to a new post Brexit low.

Markets Today: Disturbia
Markets Today: Uneasy

Markets Today: Uneasy

14 September 2016

Yesterday Brainard's comments appeased fears of an imminent hike in September, but concerns of a rising belief within the Fed that the benefit of keeping monetary policy accommodative is waning appears have left markets uneasy

Markets Today: Uneasy
Markets Today: Big up yourself

Markets Today: Big up yourself

8 September 2016

It has been a relatively quiet night for markets with the moves in GBP probably the major highlight. BoE Governor Carney faced the Treasury Select Committee in parliament and was quick to give himself a nice pat on the back for the bounce in business and consumer surveys in August.

Markets Today: Big up yourself
Markets Today: And then there were three

Markets Today: And then there were three

7 September 2016

The recent ramp up in Fed rhetoric aimed at putting the market on the scent of an imminent Fed funds rate hike took another blow last night following a sharp drop in the August ISM non-manufacturing index.

Markets Today: And then there were three
Markets Today: Spring time

Markets Today: Spring time

1 September 2016

One of the first things that I learned when I arrived in Australia a few years ago is that spring in southern hemisphere countries doesn’t start on the same day.

Markets Today: Spring time
Markets Today: Mixed emotions

Markets Today: Mixed emotions

30 August 2016

Apparently this 1989 hit by the Rolling Stones was written by Mick Jagger as a response to Keith Richards solo effort “You don’t move me”.

Markets Today: Mixed emotions
Markets Today: Pulback

Markets Today: Pulback

23 August 2016

The rise in the USD and short dated UST yields on the back of Fed vice-chair Fisher's comments over the weekend have been partly unwound in the overnight session.

Markets Today: Pulback
Markets Today: An American Trilogy

Markets Today: An American Trilogy

16 August 2016

Europe had a quiet day with many continental countries observing Assumption day. The Stoxx 600 index ended the day flat and the FTSE100 climbed 0.36% aided by another move lower in Sterling.

Markets Today: An American Trilogy
Markets Today: 1999

Markets Today: 1999

12 August 2016

Almost 24 hours after yesterday’s decision by the RBNZ to lower the OCR by 25bps and the NZD USD is almost exactly where it was before the rate announcement.

Markets Today: 1999
Markets Today: Breathe

Markets Today: Breathe

9 August 2016

Breathe was Prodigy’s bestselling album in the UK despite the fact that radio play was restricted to the evening shows and although it would be hard to make any link with the song lyrics and market events.

Markets Today: Breathe
Markets Today: Suspicious minds

Markets Today: Suspicious minds

26 July 2016

After seven years without a hit, Elvis Presley reclaimed his title of “The King” following the release of Suspicious Minds.

Markets Today: Suspicious minds
Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week

Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week

25 July 2016

US equities indices edged a little bit higher on Friday despite mixed corporate earnings while European equities ended the day practically unchanged despite the fact that European Flash PMIs for July were better than expected.

Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week
Markets Today: Feeling good

Markets Today: Feeling good

21 July 2016

As we are about to press the send button, the RBNZ has just released it economic update and although a dovish tone was expected, the NZD has dropped 25/30pips to around 0.6988.

Markets Today: Feeling good
Markets Today: Quiet times

Markets Today: Quiet times

19 July 2016

In a quiet session US and UK equity indices edged a little bit higher buoyed by technology and financial shares while European indices drifted lower weighted down by energy shares following a sharp drop in oil prices.

Markets Today: Quiet times
Markets Today: I’m so tired

Markets Today: I’m so tired

14 July 2016

In 1968 John Lennon wrote this Beatles song after three weeks of meditation with Indian Gurus, equity markets have been on a tear for four days and now in a similar way they are also showing signs of fatigue.

Markets Today: I’m so tired
Markets Today: The only way is up

Markets Today: The only way is up

13 July 2016

Risk assets had another positive night boosted by the prospects of a new round of stimulus in some major economies and the removal of at least one source of UK political uncertainty.

Markets Today: The only way is up
Markets Today: Low

Markets Today: Low

6 July 2016

Core global yields have made new record lows amid an increase in risk aversion following news that a number of UK asset managers led by Standard Life were suspending redemptions on their property funds.

Markets Today: Low
Markets Today: Too close to call

Markets Today: Too close to call

4 July 2016

The outcome from this weekend’s Australian election remains too close to call. This uncertainty and lack of a clear majority has had a mild negative influence on the AUD/USD at the open.

Markets Today: Too close to call
Markets Today: Another Pounding

Markets Today: Another Pounding

28 June 2016

Equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic ended the day sharply lower, the British Pound fell another 3.6% and demand for safe haven assets boosted gold and dragged core global yields lower.

Markets Today: Another Pounding
Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over

Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over

24 June 2016

Despite stormy weather in London and the south east, turnout has been reported to be high and although markets appear to have ‘Remain ‘ as the most likely outcome, recent history suggests that voting outcomes don’t always end as expected.

Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over
Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow

Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow

22 June 2016

Ahead of Thursday’s UK referendum, Yellen’s testimony to the Senate banking committee was the second big event of the week. Unsurprisingly, however, we got a similar message to the one we got from last week’s FOMC.

Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow
Markets Today: A night of two halves

Markets Today: A night of two halves

17 June 2016

Yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei and strengthening of the Yen on the back of BoJ inaction and heightened concerns around the outcome of the UK EU referendum set the tone to the early part of the overnight session.

Markets Today: A night of two halves
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take it easy

16 June 2016

The US Fed kept its policy rate unchanged (between 0.25% and 0.50%) as expected, however the tone of the statement and forecast revealed a more dovish stance.

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: Walking away

Markets Today: Walking away

7 June 2016

US equities ended day up between 0.5% and 0.65% with energy stocks leading the way on the back of gains in oil prices.

Markets Today: Walking away
Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!

Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!

6 June 2016

Looking at the spectrum of forecasts ahead of the release, the 38k print for May was 52k lower than the lowest forecast surveyed by Bloomberg while consensus was at 160k.

Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!
Markets Today: Hesitant

Markets Today: Hesitant

1 June 2016

Markets ended the month of May in a cautious mood amid mixed US data and a Guardian poll that suggested Britain to be more in favour of leaving the EU.

Markets Today: Hesitant
Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps

Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps

30 May 2016

In her much awaited Harvard University appearance, Fed Chair Yellen endorsed recent Fed rhetoric, noting that it would be “appropriate” for the Fed to raise the Funds rate if economic growth picked up as expected and the labour market continued to improve.

Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps
Markets Today: Bullish Mood

Markets Today: Bullish Mood

25 May 2016

US and European equity indices had a solid night with gains in financial and technology shares leading the move higher. The USD was stronger against most other currencies although GBP was the outperformer. Meanwhile US Treasury yields ended the day higher along the curve.

Markets Today: Bullish Mood
Markets Today: Back to black

Markets Today: Back to black

23 May 2016

European and US equities ended the week in positive territory and the mild positive tone to the overnight session helped the S&P 500 move back to black for 2016.

Markets Today: Back to black
Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk

Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk

18 May 2016

US equities fell overnight and the US Treasury curve flattened to its lowest level since 2007 after solid data and hawkish Fed talk increased market’s expectations of US rate hikes.

Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk
Markets Today: No retail therapy

Markets Today: No retail therapy

12 May 2016

The rise in oil prices overnight were not enough to prevent retail driven decline in US equity markets. The US dollar was weaker across the board and a solid 10y US Treasury auction amid a cautious mood helped core global yields move lower.

Markets Today: No retail therapy
Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?

Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?

3 May 2016

While yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei, partly reflected a catch up move given Friday’s holiday in Japan, this negative sentiment spread throughout Asia with all markets excluding Thailand posting small decline for the day.

Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?
Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016

26 April 2016

Tomorrow’s CPI will be another low print but unlikely to sway the RBA into easing monetary policy given the continued resilience in the non-mining economy. NAB’s forecast for the March quarter CPI is for Australia’s official inflation rate to be 1.6% y/y (after 1.7% in Q4), the sixth quarter below the 2-3% official RBA target range.

Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016
Markets Today: Distillate thrust

Markets Today: Distillate thrust

21 April 2016

Oil prices took another leg higher last night following a US Energy Information Administration report that showed a sharp decline in US distillate stockpiles.

Markets Today: Distillate thrust
Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle

Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle

20 April 2016

Broad USD dollar weakness and higher oil prices have boosted risk assets overnight with energy and material shares the outperformers in both Europe and the US.

Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle
Markets Today: The only way is up

Markets Today: The only way is up

14 April 2016

Risky assets have continued to benefit from an improvement in sentiment. Bank stocks have led the surge in equity markets and most commodities have also enjoyed some gains, despite of a pullback in oil prices.

Markets Today: The only way is up
Markets Today: Lack of conviction

Markets Today: Lack of conviction

12 April 2016

European markets ended the day in positive territory boosted by Italian banks following hopes of a government support package while in the US, equity indices erased early gains and ended the day marginally lower.

Markets Today: Lack of conviction
Markets Today: June is alive

Markets Today: June is alive

7 April 2016

An improvement in risk appetite has helped global equity markets recovered some grown overnight with the Nikkei a notable exception. FOMC minutes revealed an April hike was discussed, but a cautious approach appears to be well entrenched. A pick up in oil prices contributed to the positive move, but the strength in the yen continues to weigh on Japan’s equity market.

Markets Today: June is alive
Markets Today: Wait and see mode

Markets Today: Wait and see mode

5 April 2016

In what was a quiet night for markets the softness in oil prices spread into other commodities and it has weighted on the AUD and other commodity related currencies.

Markets Today: Wait and see mode
Markets Today: Easy does it

Markets Today: Easy does it

30 March 2016

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has reiterated her views that it is appropriate for the Fed to “proceed cautiously” in raising interest rates.

Markets Today: Easy does it
Markets Today: Kiwi dumped

Markets Today: Kiwi dumped

10 March 2016

This morning the RBNZ cut its policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% and it signal that further easing may be required.

Markets Today: Kiwi dumped
Markets Today: ISM boost

Markets Today: ISM boost

2 March 2016

China’s decision to reduce the required reserve ratio on major banks (-50bps) set the tone in yesterday’s Asian session

Markets Today: ISM boost
Markets Today: Rebound

Markets Today: Rebound

15 February 2016

European and US equity indices ended the week on a positive note, boosted by a rebound in bank stocks and a jump in oil prices.

Markets Today: Rebound
Markets Today: Carnage

Markets Today: Carnage

9 February 2016

Yeap, the heading says it all. We had a brutal price action overnight with risk assets hammered while safe haven assets were bid.

Markets Today: Carnage
Markets Today: Stalled

Markets Today: Stalled

2 February 2016

Friday’s BoJ powered equity rally stalled overnight with disappointing data releases and fading hopes of output cuts in oil weighted down on sentiment.

Markets Today: Stalled
Markets Today: Super Tuesday

Markets Today: Super Tuesday

19 January 2016

With US markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day, the relatively quiet overnight session is probably not reflective of the current collective mood.

Markets Today: Super Tuesday
Markets Today: Where are we now?

Markets Today: Where are we now?

15 January 2016

Today’s title is our final tribute to the late musical genius, David Bowie. Where are we are now? Is the first single from David Bowie’s 25th album released on the morning of his sixty-sixth birthday in 2013.

Markets Today: Where are we now?
Markets Today: Under Pressure

Markets Today: Under Pressure

12 January 2016

Today's title is not only fitting to what has transpired in markets over the past 24 hrs, but it also serves as a tribute to the passing of a music legend.

Markets Today: Under Pressure
Markets Today: Bring it on

Markets Today: Bring it on

4 January 2016

Investors ended 2015 in a defensive stance. Following the risk aversion tone seen in the previous day, equity markets were sold on Thursday while core global bonds benefited from a safe haven bid.

Markets Today: Bring it on
Markets Today: Sideways

Markets Today: Sideways

23 December 2015

Moves in oil prices remain the main driver for markets amid a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday break.

Markets Today: Sideways
Markets Today: Liquidity Trap

Markets Today: Liquidity Trap

14 December 2015

Friday night session saw a surge in risk aversion with sharp losses in equity indices, the USD underperformed against other majors while safe haven demand pushed core global yields lower.

Markets Today: Liquidity Trap
Markets Today: Squeezed

Markets Today: Squeezed

10 December 2015

As we are about to press the send bottom, the RBNZ has cut its key rate to 2.50% from 2.75%. In the statement the RBNZ has noted that it expects to reach its inflation goal at current policy settings and that the rise in the exchange rate is unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate.

Markets Today: Squeezed
Markets Today: In retreat

Markets Today: In Retreat

9 December 2015

The AUDUSD dipped below the 72c mark overnight amid the ongoing weakness in oil and bulk commodities.

Markets Today: In retreat
Markets Today: A Done Deal

Markets Today: A Done Deal

7 December 2015

The US employment report virtually matched expectations (NFP +211k, unemployment steady at 5%) and effectively confirms a Fed lift-off in two weeks’ time is a done deal.

Markets Today: A Done Deal