We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to fall by 4.9% in Q2
Insight
January 8, 2018
AUD/USD since float: Number of days in each 5 cent bucket
We’ve analysed where the Aussie dollar has spent most of its time since it was floated in 1983 and the results may surprise you.
Overview:
- In 2017 AUD/USD spent more than 80% of the year above 0.75 and below 0.80
- AU-US rates differentials are an important driver of the AUD/USD and NAB FX strategist think they are likely to be a downward force on the currency in 2018
- The risk is that the AUD/USD spends more time in the 0.70-0.75 range during 2018, its second most frequented 5-cent ‘bucket’ during the 34 year history of the floating exchange rate
- AUD/USD has spent ~45% of its (floating) life above 0.70 and below 0.80 and about the same time above 0.80 as below 0.70 (~27.5% each)
