November 20, 2018
Australian Markets Weekly – The slowing demand for real estate jobs
Housing market cools; job ads pull back.
- Preliminary CoreLogic data suggests auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne continue in the 40-50% range. The weekend’s preliminary clearance rates for Sydney and Melbourne were 48.5% and 43.5% respectively. Auction volumes have held up more in Melbourne than in Sydney relative to the same time in the past two years. A sign perhaps that vendors down south are still taking transactions to the market and adjusting expectations accordingly.
- This week we take a magnifying glass to SEEK job ads and look at which sub-sectors the decline in construction and real estate job ads has been concentrated.
- The AUD/USD began the week above 0.73; breaking through this key resistance level after boosts from better-than-expected labour data and a broad-based fall in the USD following comments from Fed members Clarida and Kaplan. Recent Fed comments have acknowledged a slowing global economy or cautioned on US rate hikes.
- This week is fairly quiet for AU data releases. Highlights being RBA Minutes (released this morning) and Phil Lowe’s speech tonight. However, markets will likely be concentrating on geopolitics following the APEC summit and in the lead up to the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 next week.
- With the Minutes reiterating the same message the RBA espoused in its Statement of Monetary Policy, RBA watchers will turn to Governor Lowe’s speech tonight on Trust and Prosperity at an annual dinner in Melbourne – well worth tuning in for any thoughts on the outlook for monetary policy in the speech and Q&A.
- With the US out for Thanksgiving on Thursday, it’s a fairly quiet week abroad too. Nevertheless, focus for markets will be on the news flow related to US-China trade and Brexit. Trump sounded cautiously optimistic on this late last week, US VP Mike Pence appeared keener to trade barbs with China’s President Xi at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit over the weekend, which has soured sentiment a little.
- On Brexit , focus will be whether a seemingly likely leadership challenge will occur this week. Cabinet is now stabilising in support of the PM with high profile Ministers Gove, Fox, Grayling, Mordaunt and Leadsom agreeing collectively to stay, with one source stating “resigning and joining a rebellion is not going to help anything”.
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