INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

The calm in financial markets for much of 2017 and into early 2018 recently came to an abrupt end with a surge in market volatility and big falls in share prices.

Stocks, bonds & Australia – still optimistic growth!

What will the new year bring in the world of business trends? Whether it’s health or agriculture, hyper local advertising or self-trained artificial intelligence, NAB has one eye on the (crystal) ball.

Last month’s spike in business conditions was completely unwound in the November NAB Monthly Business Survey, although the index remains at very elevated levels. Business confidence has been less volatile, but appears to be showing a modest downward trend.

Two weeks ago, we wrote on the outlook for the AUD from our Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill highlighting the expected move of the AUD/USD into the US$0.70-0.75 cent range.

If it wasn’t for Friday’s US labour market data, Lionel Richie’s “All night long” would have been a great option for a title today, highlighting PM May’s sleepless effort to strike a deal about a deal with the EU.

The economy is likely to have grown at a solid clip in Q3. While some pieces of the growth puzzle are falling into place, the stark divergence between business and consumer spending remains despite jobs growth. Non-mining and infrastructure investment will be encouraging for the RBA, but higher wages growth is required.

Medley: labour market, state GSP, housing, and Amazon.

The read on business conditions was extremely strong in the October NAB Monthly Business Survey, with manufacturing posting a strong result despite the recent closure of auto manufacturing plants. The conditions index jumped to a record high, and while confidence is not quite as buoyant, it is holding above long-run average levels.

The faster businesses can adapt to this generation and use their skills, the better.

Explaining subdued US and Australian wages growth.

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