EMPLOYMENT

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

The labour market has improved sharply over recent months with employment outside of Victoria almost back to pre-pandemic levels.

With COVID-19 restrictions easing across much of the country, consumer anxiety has continued to moderate and spending behaviours are shifting.

Traditionally the labour market has been a lagging indicator of activity. However, in this pandemic it is largely contemporaneous and is thus a good summary indicator of the wider economy as well as being timely given new data sets such as weekly payrolls and regular job ad updates by SEEK and Indeed.

Despite strong job gains in June and July, there are still over half a million people who have lost work since March and an unknown number supported by JobKeeper.

Many of the smaller states’ economies are benefiting from both better virus numbers along with relatively smaller exposures to business services.

Labour market recovers 40-50% from pandemic lows, but large spare capacity remains.

Conditions continue to recover, but confidence remains fragile.

Both business conditions and confidence continued to rebound in June – though it is important to note they are still weak in level terms.

Consumer anxiety fell in the June quarter despite very weak levels of economic and employment activity.

Business confidence remains very weak despite a rebound in the month.

No state or territory will be spared from COVID-19 economic fall-out.

Business confidence saw its largest decline on record and is now at its weakest level in the history of the NAB Monthly Business Survey.

Consumer anxiety and spending behaviours are changing rapidly in response to coronavirus fears and self-isolation.

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