The coming months will be full of opportunity but also challenges for the growing professional services sector. With staffing a critical factor, we identify the trends you should navigate to become an employer of choice in 2023.
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Strong management and a robust institutional framework are driving an optimistic outlook in the higher education sector for when international students return to campus life.
There are now less than two unemployed people for every job vacancy in Australia, a record low for this ratio.
The labour market recovery has been much faster than expected.
How tight does the labour market need to be for the RBA to change forward guidance?
The JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme ended on Sunday March 28, how many people could potentially be displaced?
Last Thursday’s sharp fall in unemployment to 5.8% from 6.3% took the market by surprise.
Central banks are pursuing ‘maximum possible sustainable employment’, an understated evolution in inflation targeting.
We investigate the implications of the sharp fall in underemployment.
Businesses are having to adjust to a new kind of consumer, but it remains unclear which behaviours and sentiments will stick.
Insight
The labour market has improved sharply over recent months with employment outside of Victoria almost back to pre-pandemic levels.
With COVID-19 restrictions easing across much of the country, consumer anxiety has continued to moderate and spending behaviours are shifting.
Insight
Traditionally the labour market has been a lagging indicator of activity. However, in this pandemic it is largely contemporaneous and is thus a good summary indicator of the wider economy as well as being timely given new data sets such as weekly payrolls and regular job ad updates by SEEK and Indeed.
Despite strong job gains in June and July, there are still over half a million people who have lost work since March and an unknown number supported by JobKeeper.
Many of the smaller states’ economies are benefiting from both better virus numbers along with relatively smaller exposures to business services.
Labour market recovers 40-50% from pandemic lows, but large spare capacity remains.
Conditions continue to recover, but confidence remains fragile.
Insight
Both business conditions and confidence continued to rebound in June – though it is important to note they are still weak in level terms.
Insight
Consumer anxiety fell in the June quarter despite very weak levels of economic and employment activity.
Insight
Business confidence remains very weak despite a rebound in the month.
Insight
No state or territory will be spared from COVID-19 economic fall-out.
Business confidence saw its largest decline on record and is now at its weakest level in the history of the NAB Monthly Business Survey.
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Consumer anxiety and spending behaviours are changing rapidly in response to coronavirus fears and self-isolation.
Insight
Confidence heads lower and Conditions now neutral.
We've constructed a leading index of unemployment based on the predictive power of a very large number of official and surveyed indicators.
Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.
More of the same in early 2020.
The final monthly business survey of 2019 provides further evidence that activity stabilised in Q4.
The cost of living remains the single biggest driver of consumer anxiety, despite low levels of economy-wide inflation. To understand why, we asked Australians to tell us which costs are adding most to their living expenses.
Business conditions tracked sideways in the month, and appear to have stabilised at low levels, after declining significantly between mid-2018 and 2019.
Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.
Consumer anxiety rises as concerns over the economy grow.
Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.
The Australian economy grew by 1.4% over the year to the June 2019, its weakest growth since 2009.
Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point – well below long-run averages.
We're seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month - business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don't point to an improvement in the near term.
Recent RBA research shows that high mortgage debt is a drag on consumer spending, helping explain the weak growth in consumption since the global financial crisis.
Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.
Fruit and vegetable prices are the two most volatile components of the CPI and can have a large effect on headline inflation.
Consumer anxiety fell for the second straight quarter in Q2 2019, led by a post-election fall in anxiety arising from government policy.
Economic growth is slowing as public demand continues to be the main driver of GDP growth.
The federal election and lower expected interest rates have contributed to a rebound in business confidence- but not business conditions.
Governor Lowe has said that reducing unemployment to the bank’s 4.5% estimate of the NAIRU should return inflation to the 2-3% target band.
Confidence saw a post-election spike in May but conditions decline further with the private sector continuing to lose momentum.
The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate on Tuesday, with a follow-up cut expected in August.
The RBA will be helped by looming personal income tax cuts and a relaxation of prudential regulations on mortgages.
The sharing economy is going gangbusters and entrepreneurial Australians are securing a slice of the action.
Shock election result sees the unexpected re-election of the Coalition government
Surprise jump in conditions last month was unwound this month – with business conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average.
This week, the labour market dominates in Australia.
This week we’ve examined excess capacity in the labour market.
Consumer anxiety moderated in Q1 2019 but remains above year earlier levels.
Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.
Conditions rise while confidence continues a below average run.
In this weekly, we've looked at low inflation, focusing on the role played by weak wage growth.
Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.
The RBA has downgraded its outlook for growth, although history shows that the Bank has regularly overstated growth since the global financial crisis.
The bigger picture – A global and Australian economic perspective.
Business conditions saw a moderate rebound in January after falling sharply in December.
Consumer anxiety reaches its highest level in over 3 years as slow income growth, high debt levels and weaker growth in household wealth weighed on households and their spending.
Conditions end the year on a concerning low.
The latest NAB business survey shows further weakness in business conditions.
Housing market cools; job ads pull back.
Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks through the findings in the latest NAB Business Survey.
Confidence and conditions ease.
Anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns and how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.
The business conditions index decreased 2pts to +13 in 2018 Q3, but remains well above its long-run average. Business confidence also fell, declining 4pts to +3 index points, a little below its historical average.
Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.
SEEK data for August showed that Job Ads fell again and the RLB Crane Index reported that residential high-rise surprisingly increased.
The bigger picture - a global and Australian economic perspective.
The Weekly digs deeper into the revival in resources sector activity in WA
Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.
Last week’s data revealed the slightest improvement in annual wages growth and a welcome further decline in the unemployment rate to a six-year low.
Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.
The Weekly looks in detail at some of the trends in SEEK job ads and what they tell us about the trends in the various state economies.
The Yuan has served to undermine all of the gains in the AUD generated by yesterday’s good employment report.
The global economy remains in reasonable shape right now despite some pressures on Emerging Market economies.
Real GDP figures showed a pick-up in growth to 1.0% in Q1 (from 0.5% in Q4) lifting growth to 3.1% over the year.
If you like a schooner of beer, it’s likely you’ve sipped a brew made with hops from Hop Products Australia. Having weathered this boom-bust industry, and as Australia’s largest hops grower today, the team at HPA is passionate about these little cone-like flowers – and about bringing distinct fresh flavour to every glass.
My ‘whys’ haven’t changed over 25 years at NAB. I’m still driven by the impact economics has on our lives and the importance of delivering independent analysis that helps people and institutions make better decisions.
The change reflects the fact there's no sign as yet of stronger wages growth and unemployment has been stuck at around 5.5% for the best part of a year. We still expect the economy to strengthen, leading to a declining unemployment rate.
First 25bp increase now expected mid-2019.
Based on responses from the March 2018 Quarterly Business Survey.
Testing and (hints of) building capacity
After a somewhat disappointing 2017 we continue to expect growth to gain more momentum during 2018 – with GDP increasing by around 3% through the year or 2.8% in year average terms.
Views from the US on Australia and the US
Breaking down RBA research on wages.
Financial market volatility has eased since the US equity market correction in late January but a range of geo-political and market events could trigger another bout of uncertainty.
The award-winning Arnhem Land Progress Aboriginal Corporation has created jobs in some of Australia’s most isolated communities. CEO Alastair King explains how ALPA is creating the jobs that are key to building successful communities in remote locations.
The economy looks to have performed solidly in Q4, despite a large subtraction from net exports.
NAB economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp increase in late 2018.
How fast is WA recovering?
Rising demand, shrinking resources, vulnerable clients – we can’t keep ignoring the challenging business of healthcare for the elderly.
Wages key to inflation and monetary policy.
The calm in financial markets for much of 2017 and into early 2018 recently came to an abrupt end with a surge in market volatility and big falls in share prices.
Stocks, bonds & Australia – still optimistic growth!
Employment good news to start 2018.
What will the new year bring in the world of business trends? Whether it’s health or agriculture, hyper local advertising or self-trained artificial intelligence, NAB has one eye on the (crystal) ball.
Last month’s spike in business conditions was completely unwound in the November NAB Monthly Business Survey, although the index remains at very elevated levels. Business confidence has been less volatile, but appears to be showing a modest downward trend.
Two weeks ago, we wrote on the outlook for the AUD from our Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill highlighting the expected move of the AUD/USD into the US$0.70-0.75 cent range.
If it wasn’t for Friday’s US labour market data, Lionel Richie’s “All night long” would have been a great option for a title today, highlighting PM May’s sleepless effort to strike a deal about a deal with the EU.
Way out West: mining and exploring again.
The economy is likely to have grown at a solid clip in Q3. While some pieces of the growth puzzle are falling into place, the stark divergence between business and consumer spending remains despite jobs growth. Non-mining and infrastructure investment will be encouraging for the RBA, but higher wages growth is required.
Medley: labour market, state GSP, housing, and Amazon.
The read on business conditions was extremely strong in the October NAB Monthly Business Survey, with manufacturing posting a strong result despite the recent closure of auto manufacturing plants. The conditions index jumped to a record high, and while confidence is not quite as buoyant, it is holding above long-run average levels.
The faster businesses can adapt to this generation and use their skills, the better.
Explaining subdued US and Australian wages growth.
Unemployment to head lower say labour market indicators.
China’s stable growth continued in Q3, but supported by another credit binge.
Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.
Consumption has held despite consumer worries.
For Australia, outcomes in the September NAB Monthly Business Survey were generally upbeat. Business conditions remain rock steady at levels close to their multi-year highs, but business confidence rose only modestly after a big fall last month.
Balancing multiple objectives, as business remains strong and consumers cautious.
Potpourri: inflation ponderings, people and cranes.
Jobs boom seeing some emerging rises in advertised salaries.
RBA to remove some emergency accommodation in 2018.
What does the Bank of Canada mean for the RBA?
Increasing household wealth (due to rising equity and house prices), as well as a high level of consumer confidence, remain tailwinds for consumer spending.
Q2 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 6 September at 11:30am AEST. Additional partials will be available tomorrow and may alter our forecast.
NAB’s Mark Todd and a panel considered the future of fintech and the implications for investment at the KangaNews-NAB Fixed Income Beyond the Institutional Sector Summit.
After a sluggish start to the year, GDP growth rebounded in the June quarter and the labour market continues to tighten.
Conditions continue their strong run, bolstering business confidence.
Revisions to real GDP growth forecasts this month largely reflect a stronger than expected rebound in coal exports following disruptions from Cyclone Debbie in Q1. Further out, we have not fundamentally changed the tone of our outlook.
Following a slow start to the year, GDP growth looks to have accelerated in the June quarter.
Encouraging signs emerging, but long-term headwinds keep RBA on the sideline.
Business conditions hit another multi-year high, with most industries performing well. Stronger trading conditions (sales) and profitability drove the improvement, while employment conditions were steady.
Population tilting higher.
Employment growth is realish.
Strong focus on the implications of the beginning of normalisation of rates by the Bank of Canada.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey was a little softer in May, but still points to a healthy business sector. Business conditions are elevated and confidence is holding up above long-run average levels.
Business versus households – how will the situation resolve itself?
After a slow start to the year, early indications for June quarter GDP are pointing to an acceleration in growth.
Underemployment dragging on wages growth.
How much spare capacity is in the labour market?
Labour market outlook to improve.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey generally paints an encouraging picture of both current business activity and the outlook.
In March, the NAB Monthly Business Survey results pointed to an overall healthy economy that is gaining momentum, at least in the near-term.
Results from the March NAB Monthly Business Survey point to an overall healthy economy that is gaining momentum, at least in the near-term.
The APRA Chairman and RBA Governor both make clear that the recent moves reflect a desire to further tighten lending standards in what is considered to be an environment of heightened risks.
Investment indicators looking better
With house prices rising, vacancy rates declining and a previous drop in building approvals, it’s likely that residential construction activity should begin to strengthen.
Jobs growth, business surveys and consumer sentiment all point to an economy in good shape.
Business survey suggests solid near-term activity, despite easing from multi-year high.
What can the history of Australian monetary policy tell us about the current monetary policy debate?
Growth will remain solid across the large south-eastern states, while there are signs of stabilisation in mining states as the end of the downswing in resource-related investment approaches.
Recession fears overblown as GDP rebounds; income surges despite weak labour income.
Thinking about some of the challenges facing Australian policy makers – and arguably consumers - at the present time, the slow growth in wages looms large.
Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.
One feature of Australia’s recent employment growth has been the subdued pace of full-time job creation at a time when part-time employment has grown strongly
My colleague Rodrigo Catril warned yesterday of the possibility of a US Fed March rate hike – what he termed the Ides of March. That argument gained further currency overnight with the US CPI and core‑Retail Sales printing double the market consensus.
NAB Economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp cut in late 2017.
Stronger near-term momentum will keep RBA on hold, but 2018 still a worry.
The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.
The Australian budget in the first six months of this financial year is tracking a little higher, but not significantly worse than recent budget forecasts
The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.
Business confidence was down slightly, but has been remarkably steady for a long period given the context of global and political uncertainty.
Fed pressure index signalling upside risks for US inflation and interest rates?
Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.
Apartment construction which has risen strongly over the past few years was reported by the Statistician to have declined in the September quarter.
Re-building the US industrial base, aiming to “massively increase jobs, wages, incomes and opportunities for the people of our country” is the principal economic objective of the Trump Presidency.
Against flatter job advertisements of late, job vacancies have been trending higher. Higher job vacancies are usually associated with a lower unemployment rate and greater employment growth
According to the most recent surveys, business conditions and household sentiment are solid, and on an upwards trend.
As the markets quieten down for the holiday break, we reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour.
Overall consumer anxiety eases a little more in Q4, but our spending behaviours are still yet to respond.
Australia’s population growth remains strong by historical and international standards at around 1.4% y/y. That is 338,000 persons in the past year – nearly equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year.
No technical recession, but outlook for domestic demand uninspiring
How fast (or slow) is Australian employment growth?
Business leaders can feel isolated with nowhere to turn for advice or support – which is what inspired Jason Tunbridge to co-found the Leadership Think Tank. He and three members discuss the benefits of speaking out.
Contraction in Q3 GDP raises questions about non-mining recovery
NAB economists continue to monitor recent disappointing momentum in indicators of the NSW economy, employment and – until Friday – also in retail sales.
An early song from English progressive rock band Barclay James Harvest. No, it’s not on my playlist either.
The income measure of GDP is likely to be mixed, but stronger than the expenditure measure
Family, our homes and personal safety contribute the most to our feeling of Wellbeing.
The USD continued to march a little higher, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up another 0.14%, gains mostly against the Euro, the Yen, and Sterling, the latter from some self-inflicted news.
It’s been an overnight session of digestion and reflection for the market, one week on now from the Presidential election.
Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth – and they have been improving in the months leading up to October.
US Equities are off, the VIX is up, the US dollar is lower, US Treasury yields are lower and the Mexican Peso/Japanese Yen cross (-2.5%) is still proving to the be the FX market’s weapon of choice when it comes to reflecting sentiment regarding the prospect of Donald Trump.
This week we report on the views of Japanese clients of Australia following a recent trip to the country.
In the hour after it was announced that Hillary Clinton’s e-mails were the subject of a new FBI probe, USD/JPY dropped from Y105.50 to Y104.50, the S&P dropped 20 points or 1% with the VIX spiking by 19% and 10-year Treasuries dropped 2bps from 1.85% to 1.83%.
While GDP growth has been modest, jobs growth remains solid and inflation is edging up.
The quarterly iteration of the NAB Business Survey provides additional valuable insight into Australian business than the regular NAB Monthly Business Survey. This publication offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business.
Ahead of today’s welter of Chinese GDP and activity data, the AUD is trading this morning almost bang on where it was yesterday afternoon.
The bigger picture – A Global and Australian economic perspective.
The outlook for the labour market is key. While we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain in its recent range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey still suggest solid levels of activity in the non-mining economy, but points to relatively patchy conditions at the industry level.
Attached to this week’s publication is a detailed slide pack covering the latest trends in Australia’s population.
The bigger picture – A Global and Australian economic perspective
During the US dollar’s recent revival associated with deteriorating global risk sentiment and steepening yield curves, the commodity currencies – in particular the AUD and NZD – have been the hardest hit.
How one assesses Australia’s economic performance at present depends in large part on which industry / geography one looks at and whether the benchmark is in real or nominal terms.
Consumer anxiety eases as concerns over jobs, the cost of living and government policy continue to moderate.
Mental preparations for another onslaught of selling bonds and equities offshore were put on the backburner with markets becalmed overnight.
The results from this month’s survey remain broadly consistent with our prior view of the economy and the near-term outlook. It points to a patchy, but sustained, improvement in the non-mining economy, with the major services sectors and construction leading the way.
Australia’s wellbeing has fallen across all measures - life satisfaction, life worth, happiness and anxiety.
Expenditure components show a lift in domestic demand, supported by public spend.
This week, we thought we would focus on three themes: (i) Friday night’s US labour market data; (ii) this week’s upcoming Australian Q2 GDP data; and (iii) some thoughts on apartment settlements.
Despite inflation remaining stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% goal, lower unemployment can still be expected to generate price pressures.
Q2 GDP growth expected to ease to 0.3% in the quarter (down from 1.1%)
The major development for markets last week was confirmation that the US Federal Reserve is looking to hike interest rates this year.
It’s been a rather uneventful night for most of the major currencies, with the possible exception of Sterling.
The rise in the USD and short dated UST yields on the back of Fed vice-chair Fisher's comments over the weekend have been partly unwound in the overnight session.
Friday looks to have shown FX traders to be the smartest guys in the room. Traditionally referred to as the ‘last market to clear’ (and so giving FX analysts such as this scribe a career) the dollar had put on a strong showing during the APAC session.
Short sterling positions were dealt another blow overnight by a blockbuster rise in UK retail sales in July where the weather and the low currency has seen a very good month for the High Street.
The overnight session was all about the July Fed Minutes.
Europe had a quiet day with many continental countries observing Assumption day. The Stoxx 600 index ended the day flat and the FTSE100 climbed 0.36% aided by another move lower in Sterling.
Spare capacity in the labour market seems to have been an important part of the RBA’s recent decision to lower the cash rate further. The linkage is low wages growth – which reflects this spare capacity – and which, as a key determinant of prices, impacts on the RBA’s outlook for inflation.
The previous Friday’s strong US payrolls report has become a somewhat hazy memory after a much softer than expected retail sales report on Friday that challenged prevailing confidence that the US consumer has entered Q3 in rude health.
Almost 24 hours after yesterday’s decision by the RBNZ to lower the OCR by 25bps and the NZD USD is almost exactly where it was before the rate announcement.
In delivering only 25bps cut to the OCR and which was more than 100% discounted ahead of time and the RBNZ’s latest 90-day bill track only implying one more cut, the NZD has predictably bounced sharply. It up just over 1% as we go to press.
Business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey, with firms choosing to remain focussed on the positive trends within their own business.
Over the past few years, the rate of increase of Australian house prices has at times been of concern to the RBA.
Attitudes to work are changing, with increasing demands for more flexibility in the way we work and what we do fuelling a rise in personal entrepreneurialism
Last week’s local data provided further indication that the recovery in the non-mining sectors has continued through the June quarter.
SA economy making progress; NAB survey, Employment and BoE this week
The overall narrative of the Survey has not changed this month, even in light of recent disruptions to financial market sentiment.
The early part of last week saw a continuation of post-Brexit equity market weakness, falling bond yields and generally heightened uncertainty.
It’s now nearly 72 hours since British voters voted to exit the European Union and we examine the aftermath of this decision.
Dr Ben Chan is part of a growing tribe of doctors who have started complementary side-businesses.
This month’s NAB Business Survey remains true to theme of ongoing recovery in the non-mining economy, building on the already solid growth seen in the recent National Accounts.
Rachel Brindley is the former Melbourne-based chef turned jillaroo behind Outback Careers, where tree changers can search jobs and access information about life on the land.
Today’s weekly focuses on what the low inflation environment means for monetary policy, and what discretion the RBA has in “looking through” low inflationary periods.
US equities fell overnight and the US Treasury curve flattened to its lowest level since 2007 after solid data and hawkish Fed talk increased market’s expectations of US rate hikes.
It was a quieter week for Australian markets after the previous week’s very large moves. The Australian dollar still ended the week lower, as markets continued to speculate that the RBA will follow up with another interest rate cut in the months ahead and as Chinese economic data disappointed.
The US Energy Information Agency revised up its forecasts for oil prices for this year and next, lifting its forecast for WTI for this year by nearly $6/bbl to $40.32 from $34.37.
Firms continue to see a favourable business environment, despite pairing back some of the strong gains seen last month.
Today’s CPI produced the lowest quarterly and annual rates of core inflation recorded since the RBA commenced inflation targeting - and rates that are starting to diverge below the lower end of the Bank’s target band.
Tomorrow’s CPI will be another low print but unlikely to sway the RBA into easing monetary policy given the continued resilience in the non-mining economy. NAB’s forecast for the March quarter CPI is for Australia’s official inflation rate to be 1.6% y/y (after 1.7% in Q4), the sixth quarter below the 2-3% official RBA target range.
The latest NAB business survey and labour market data accord well with the RBA’s policy stance – low inflation provides ample scope to ease monetary policy further should that be necessary to support the economy, though activity and labour market data do not suggest that such a move is necessary
NAB Business Survey suggests non-mining recovery is broadening, and bolstering confidence despite global uncertainties.
Hard work, patience, sound recruitment practices and good advice are behind the growth of Johnson Partners, according to Theo Rigopoulos. These attributes have helped the accountancy firm grow tenfold. Now employing 40 staff, it’s in demand with SMEs and high-net-worth individuals.
In our March update, Nick Ryder, NAB Private Wealth Investment Strategist, talks mixed messages with slumps in developed markets, India and China while the US posted slight improvements and Australia performed reasonably well. Meanwhile, Europe’s inflation entered negative territory.
Improvement in business conditions adding to evidence of a buoyant non-mining recovery. Business confidence also resilient despite global uncertainty
In this report, we take a look at longer term wellbeing trends, focussing on those groups that have historically reported the lowest wellbeing.
Price developments over the past week supportive of NAB view that markets had become overly pessimistic on the growth outlook – commodities, equities and the $A all rally strongly; bond yields rise sharply.
In our second annual survey, we take another look at what makes this country such a special place to live.
Another volatile week in markets with equity markets up and the bond market also rallying on expectations of the US Fed delaying further rate hikes.
RBA watching international developments closely; far from panicking about the current state and momentum in the domestic economy with signs of the economy’s emerging rotation
Business confidence is sub-trend, but holding up reasonably well in the face of financial turmoil. Business conditions eased, but still consistent with non-mining recovery
The impact of oil complicates the outlook.
The markets make significant reversals on little fundamental developments, suggesting positioning and sentiment had become extreme.
Business confidence resilient to financial market turmoil (for now). Business conditions suggest non-mining recovery remains on track
The wild start to 2016 has continued in the past week. Equities, commodities, commodity currencies, and yields are all lower.
No news in falling commodity prices. The big questions for 2016 are residential construction cycle and the non-mining economy. We expect RBA to be on hold right through 2016.
It was a more “normal” overnight trading session, following the big risk-off move on Monday night.
The first day of trading for many markets was a memorable one, with some big falls in equity markets. With the plunge in risk appetite, the Yen was the best performing currency
Investors ended 2015 in a defensive stance. Following the risk aversion tone seen in the previous day, equity markets were sold on Thursday while core global bonds benefited from a safe haven bid.
Heading into Wednesday’s New York close, the S&P 500 is showing a gain of about 1.2% on the day, which equates to a rise of just 0.2% year to date.
The NAB Quarterly Australian Behaviour Survey (formerly NAB Consumer Anxiety Report) shows consumer anxiety falling again (and to its lowest level since Q4 2014), amid more signs of improvement in the labour market and non-mining segments of the economy.
Moves in oil prices remain the main driver for markets amid a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday break.
We draw attention in this Weekly to the importance of growth in the population to the economy and how population growth has slowed in recent years.
Friday was one of the four ‘triple witching’ occasions of 2015 (expiration of stock index futures, index options and individual share options) –sometimes known as freaky Friday.
While European equities closed higher overnight, the US market opened down and it’s remained that way into the last hour of trade.
An important week as Australian markets prepare to wind down for Xmas and the summer holidays, with the MYEFO Budget outlook on Tuesday expected to reveal a mild worsening in this year’s deficit to $38bn and to bring to account lower long-term growth assumptions.
As we are about to press the send bottom, the RBNZ has cut its key rate to 2.50% from 2.75%. In the statement the RBNZ has noted that it expects to reach its inflation goal at current policy settings and that the rise in the exchange rate is unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate.
Consistently above average business conditions are an encouraging sign that the apparent non-mining sector recovery continues to gain traction, despite relatively muted levels of business confidence.
The violent upwards reaction in all things euro in response to a set of ECB decisions that underwhelmed expectations.
An important week for Australia, with a speech by the RBA Governor Tuesday, the release of key investment figures that feed into next week’s GDP, as well as the latest survey of investment intentions for 2015-16.
We review last week’s stunning Australian labour market data. While we don’t believe the large moves in either the employment or unemployment rate, we believe the signals - that employment is strengthening (driven by NSW and importantly an improving trend for QLD)
A rising commodities tide lifted all boats overnight, with an improved tone in risk evident in equities, bonds, and currencies. The AUD outperformed after the RBA stood pat yesterday. It is a very busy day ahead.
Australia’s wellbeing has risen to its highest level since mid-2013, with levels of happiness, life satisfaction, life worth and anxiety all improving, the latest NAB Wellbeing Index has found.
Global concerns and the potential negative feedback loop to the US economy and inflation have been dialled down. At the same, concerns about the strength of the labour market have been somewhat dialled up, the Fed noting that “the pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady”.
ECB President Draghi stepped up to the plate last night, setting equity markets alight and scuttling the EUR. Draghi effectively preannounced further easing in policy at its 3 December meeting.
