EMPLOYMENT

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

Consumer anxiety rises as concerns over the economy grow.

Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.

The Australian economy grew by 1.4% over the year to the June 2019, its weakest growth since 2009.

Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point – well below long-run averages.

We’re seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month – business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don’t point to an improvement in the near term.

Recent RBA research shows that high mortgage debt is a drag on consumer spending, helping explain the weak growth in consumption since the global financial crisis.

Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.

Fruit and vegetable prices are the two most volatile components of the CPI and can have a large effect on headline inflation.

Consumer anxiety fell for the second straight quarter in Q2 2019, led by a post-election fall in anxiety arising from government policy.

Economic growth is slowing as public demand continues to be the main driver of GDP growth.

The federal election and lower expected interest rates have contributed to a rebound in business confidence- but not business conditions.

Governor Lowe has said that reducing unemployment to the bank’s 4.5% estimate of the NAIRU should return inflation to the 2-3% target band.

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