Nationwide dwelling prices have fallen 4% since their peak in November 2017. How much further will prices decline? As you’d expect there is no simple answer.
“Peter has worked as an economist and researcher for more than two decades, starting out with the Central Bank of New Zealand. ”
Peter is Global Head of Research in the Global Markets area of National Australia Bank.
His team has specialist researchers across the world covering macroeconomics, credit markets, foreign exchange, and fixed income markets.
Peter has worked as an economist and researcher for more than two decades, starting out with the Central Bank of New Zealand.
Peter is also an Honorary Fellow at Macquarie University and has a Masters Degree in Economics from the University of London.
Recently Published Articles
In today’s weekly we consider the case for the RBA cutting the cash rate.
Political risks and uncertainty may be on the rise. But a recent tour of Asia for the NAB Asian Debt Capital Markets Conference reminded NAB Global Head of Research Peter Jolly of the many causes for optimism about Australia’s economy.
Despite an awful lot of noise in markets, the boringly positive development has been that the central forecast for a slow improvement in Australian and global growth, continues to play out.
Trade wars and trade imbalances: early thoughts
Stocks, bonds & Australia – still optimistic growth!
While there was plenty of concern about potential geopolitical and economic crises at the recent ASFA conference, at least one senior industry figure was upbeat.
Gas supply assured but higher prices still probable.
Why we forecast – it’s the turning point that matters
The key views of NAB and BNZ's economists and strategists
Last week’s local data provided further indication that the recovery in the non-mining sectors has continued through the June quarter.
RBA more open to the need to cut again but for now the reasons aren’t sufficient.
Another busy week in Australia with the NAB Business Survey, Consumer Confidence and October Labour Force data all released.
This week in Australia is of course all about the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday and the November Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday. Our special focus this week is on a number of charts showing that the RBA has already eased pro-cyclically and the non-mining economy is improving.
The RBA Board is sure to leave the cash rate at 2% on Tuesday and their Statement is likely to again signal a very modest easing bias. Absolutely no intent, but nonetheless an acknowledgement that if needed they still have 200bps of interest rates to play with.
Ahead of next week’s Commonwealth Budget, there has been speculation on whether Australia’s AAA sovereign credit rating is at risk. There are several aspects to consider here. First the likelihood and second the implications.
Australian markets weekly starting 24th November 2014
After several low quarterly increases, we expect Wednesday’s Q3 wage data to show a small up-tick in the annual growth rate from 2.6% yoy to 2.7% in Q3.
Fairly quiet week for scheduled data and events in Australia but more action overseas, particularly in the US where the Federal Reserve will end their bond buying or quantitative easing programme
A striking feature in recent times has been the divergence between the confidence of businesses and consumers.
House prices have been rising briskly in Australia since late 2011. They continued to do so at the weekend with RP Data showing that prices were up in nearly all the major cities and auction clearance rates robust.
Business confidence near multi-year highs yet consumer confidence near multi-year lows. Firms profitability being driven by productivity and constrained labour costs. Household income growth near zero over past two years – near recessionary levels.
The Government Statistician released the Q2 National Accounts last week which showed the economy doing quite well. Or at least a bit better than we feared given mining investment is slumping and commodity prices are falling.
Blockbuster week in Australia with loads of key economic data, an RBA rate decision tomorrow, and a speech from the RBA Governor on Wednesday.
The quarterly inflation print is the most important statistic for financial markets in Australia. Several reasons why. First and most importantly the RBA is an inflation targeting central bank and this is their quarterly scorecard.
After seven years of negotiation Australia and Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement last week. Some call it a free-trade agreement but as one of my colleagues noted no trade is entirely free.
Most of us like matters to be resolved quickly and with clarity. This is especially true of financial market folk: Is the economic outlook good or bad? If the RBA isn’t cutting they must be hiking?
Predictably the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 2.50%. They also retained their neutral bias – a small surprise – saying again that “the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates”.
A busy few weeks as we get a good number of timely indicators on the economy as well as the RBA’s latest assessment of developments at tomorrow’s Board meeting. Governor Stevens speaks on Thursday.
A light period for new data is an appropriate time to take stock of where the economy is at. Short answer is that the pace appears to be coming out of the interest rate sensitive consumer