RBA more open to the need to cut again but for now the reasons aren’t sufficient.
Another busy week in Australia with the NAB Business Survey, Consumer Confidence and October Labour Force data all released.
This week in Australia is of course all about the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday and the November Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday. Our special focus this week is on a number of charts showing that the RBA has already eased pro-cyclically and the non-mining economy is improving.
The RBA Board is sure to leave the cash rate at 2% on Tuesday and their Statement is likely to again signal a very modest easing bias. Absolutely no intent, but nonetheless an acknowledgement that if needed they still have 200bps of interest rates to play with.
Ahead of next week’s Commonwealth Budget, there has been speculation on whether Australia’s AAA sovereign credit rating is at risk. There are several aspects to consider here. First the likelihood and second the implications.
After several low quarterly increases, we expect Wednesday’s Q3 wage data to show a small up-tick in the annual growth rate from 2.6% yoy to 2.7% in Q3.
Fairly quiet week for scheduled data and events in Australia but more action overseas, particularly in the US where the Federal Reserve will end their bond buying or quantitative easing programme
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