Author

Ray Attrill

“Ray has 30 years experience as an economist and market strategist, obtained in roles working in London, Sydney and New York.”

Ray Attrill is Head of FX Strategy within the Fixed income, Currencies and Commodities division of National Australia Bank.

In this role, he advises the bank’s dealing rooms and institutional and corporate clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.

Ray has 30 years experience as an economist and market strategist, obtained in roles working in London, Sydney and New York. Prior to joining NAB in 2012, he held a similar role at BNP Paribas, based in New York.

He previously amassed considerable experience in research and strategy, being a joint founding partner for 4CAST limited, a leading independent economic and financial market research company. Prior to that, he worked for many years in senior roles at MMS International, also a leading on-line market research provider.

He holds both Master and Bachelor of Science degrees in economics from the London School of Economics.

Recently Published Articles

The AUD in October 2023

The AUD in October 2023

1 November 2023

Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.

The AUD in October 2023
Markets Today – Closing Time

Markets Today – Closing Time

29 September 2023

Todays Podcast UK gilts lead global bond yields higher, Italy and France also up a lot, budget news hurts Treasuries recoil ~10bps from new (4.685%) high ahead of expected government shutdown tomorrow This plus reduced UAW pay demands, news of possible Xi-Biden meet, boosts US equity sentiment, AUD/USD recovers more than 1% of recent losses […]

Markets Today – Closing Time
Markets Today – The Price You Pay

Markets Today – The Price You Pay

27 September 2023

US equity and FX markets have for once pushed the bond market vigilantes out of the spotlight, albeit the weakness in stocks and strength in the USD doubtless owes something to the lagged impact of the earlier run up in Treasury yields to post 2007 highs

Markets Today – The Price You Pay
Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)

Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)

25 September 2023

The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come.

Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)
Markets Today – The Best

Markets Today – The Best

4 September 2023

Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried

Markets Today – The Best
The AUD in August 2023

The AUD in August 2023

1 September 2023

The AUD have an ‘average’ August in terms of its monthly hi-lo range, albeit it fell to a near 10-month beneath 64 cents

The AUD in August 2023
The AUD in May 2023

The AUD in May 2023

1 June 2023

The AUD fell below 65 cents in May, in doing so re-establishing a more ‘normal’ monthly trading range after two months of highly compressed volatility.

The AUD in May 2023
The AUD in April 2023

The AUD in April 2023

1 May 2023

After reducing to just a 2.2 cents range in March, April’s AUD/USD range was little different – 2.3 cents

The AUD in April 2023
Markets Today – Shake it up

Markets Today – Shake it up

20 April 2023

The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations

Markets Today – Shake it up
Markets Today – Stick or Twist

Markets Today – Stick or Twist

4 April 2023

Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today

Markets Today – Stick or Twist
The AUD in March 2023

The AUD in March 2023

3 April 2023

Following two months of well above-average ranges, the AUD/USD range reduced to just 2.2 cents in March, though the currency did hit a 4-month low of 0.6565.

The AUD in March 2023
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

20 March 2023

A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
Markets Today: I Feel Better

Markets Today: I Feel Better

6 March 2023

The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.

Markets Today: I Feel Better
Markets Today: (No) Resistance

Markets Today: (No) Resistance

3 March 2023

The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.

Markets Today: (No) Resistance
The AUD in February 2023

The AUD in February 2023

1 March 2023

AUD performance in February was an almost exact mirror image of January, AUD/USD trading back down to near 67 cents from above 0.71 cents, having risen from sub-0.67 to above 0.71 in January.

The AUD in February 2023
Markets Today: Early year optimism

Markets Today: Early year optimism

11 January 2023

Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.

Markets Today: Early year optimism
The AUD in December 2022

The AUD in December 2022

3 January 2023

AUD/USD ended Dec 2022 much as it started. For 2022 overall, AUD/USD lost 6.2% which was the the second biggest annual range of the past decade, exceeded only in the 2020 first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The AUD in December 2022
The AUD in November 2022

The AUD in November 2022

1 December 2022

The AUD ended the month in the ascendency, boosted by a less hawkish than feared Fed Chair Powell speech, forcing a broad USD retreat.

The AUD in November 2022
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?

Markets Today: Oil, more or less?

22 November 2022

Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.

Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
The AUD in October 2022

The AUD in October 2022

1 November 2022

Australia specific influences on AUD once again played second fiddle to broader USD volatility and swings in risk sentiment.

The AUD in October 2022
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in

MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in

24 October 2022

Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.

MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise

Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise

5 October 2022

Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.

Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
The AUD in September 2022

The AUD in September 2022

4 October 2022

The AUD/USD high of 0.6916 came on the 13th and the low of 0.6363 on the 29th (last day of the month).

The AUD in September 2022
Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet

14 September 2022

Today’s podcast Overview Rumours of inflation’s demise much exaggerated US CPI shocks to the upside: stocks, bonds take fright USD bounces back, AUD and NZD both down by more than 2% Next week’s Fed debate now seen to be between 75 and 100bps (83bps priced) German ZEW survey readings slumps while US NFIB Business Optimism […]

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet
MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

6 September 2022

Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.

MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
The AUD in August 2022

The AUD in August 2022

2 September 2022

The AUD/USD spent August oscillating around the 70 US cents mark but spent much more time below than above.

The AUD in August 2022
Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

8 August 2022

An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.

Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
The AUD in June 2022

The AUD in June 2022

1 July 2022

The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.7170, made a high of 0.7283 on June 3 and fell to its monthly low of 0.6851 on June 15.

The AUD in June 2022
Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial

10 June 2022

Announcing the end of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as of July 1, the ECB also pre-announced a 25bps rise in interest rates out of its July meeting with a further rise planned out of the Sept meeting.

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial
The AUD in May 2022

The AUD in May 2022

1 June 2022

AUD/USD hit a near two-year low of 0.6829 on May 13 after hitting its highest May prints earlier in the month (0.7266, seen on both May 4 and 5).

The AUD in May 2022
The AUD in February 2022

The AUD in February 2022

2 March 2022

Despite being the month when Russia invaded Ukraine, the high-low range in AUD/USD was less than in January.

The AUD in February 2022
The AUD in January 2022

The AUD in January 2022

2 February 2022

It was an eventful start to the year, AUD/USD tracing out a range from a high of 0.7314 (Jan 13) to a low of 0.6965 (Jan 30)

The AUD in January 2022
The AUD in December 2021

The AUD in December 2021

11 January 2022

AUD/USD made its low point for the year on Dec.3 at 0.6993 – the pair’s only foray below 0.7000 in 2021.

The AUD in December 2021
Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

2 December 2021

The US CDC has just identified the first case of Omicron in the United States – joining the UK, Switzerland and Brazil overnight – at a time when US infection rates of the delta variant had already started creeping back up.

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
The AUD in November 2021

The AUD in November 2021

1 December 2021

The overwhelming negative influence late in the month was the emergence of the Omicron covid-19 variant and doubts over the efficacy of existing vaccines against this strain and all that might imply for the global economic re-opening process.

The AUD in November 2021
Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

30 November 2021

Global markets have seen a modest retracement of many of last Friday’s violent ‘risk-off’ moves, with equities higher in Europe, so too US government yields up, as too is oil, but in all cases to nowhere near Friday’s closing levels.

Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
Markets Today: Have a little faith

Markets Today: Have a little faith

12 November 2021

The US has been out for Veterans Day, though stock markets have been open and have recouped a little of their pre and post US CPI losses

Markets Today: Have a little faith
Markets Today: Tighter but taking time

Markets Today: Tighter but taking time

4 November 2021

No surprises from the FOMC in its formal policy pronouncement, the Fed announcing a November start to the QE tapering process at the as-expected pace of $15bn per month.

Markets Today: Tighter but taking time
The AUD in October 2021

The AUD in October 2021

1 November 2021

The RBA’s failure to buy the bond in the days following the Q3 CPI report convinced the market the YCC target at least in current form, was set to be formally abandoned out of the 2 November Board meeting.

The AUD in October 2021
Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal

Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal

25 October 2021

Friday’s main economic events, namely the ‘flash’ PMIs, tell us that there is little reason to fear stagnation, for the time being at least, given still elevated levels for all readings across Europe and the US.

Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal
Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?

Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?

7 October 2021

Words from politicians of various stripes have gone a little way to alleviating two of the major concerns currently plaguing global markets, namely the ongoing energy crisis centred on Europe and the looming deadline for lifting or scrapping the US debt ceiling

Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?
The AUD in September 2021

The AUD in September 2021

1 October 2021

Forces acting on the AUD (and other commodity linked currencies) independent of USD strength in September were largely China related.

The AUD in September 2021
Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears

21 September 2021

A torrid day for Hong Kong’s hang Seng index yesterday, driven by sharp fall in property sector stocks and led by a 16% fall in Evergrande ahead of Thursday’s bond coupon payment day, spilled over to the global arena on Monday with equities down sharply, bond yields lower and safe haven currencies in the ascendancy.

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears
Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks

Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks

7 September 2021

US markets being out for the Labor Day holiday hasn’t prevented global equity markets forging ahead. The US dollar has recouped a little of its (further) losses seen post last Friday’s US payrolls report and since AUD and NZD have been the two biggest beneficiaries of USD slippage of late, no great surprise they have lost a little more than most other currencies overnight.

Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks
Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

23 August 2021

Mid-morning in Friday’s US trading day, Bob Kaplan said he may rethink his call for the Fed to quickly start to taper its $120 billion per month in bond purchases if it looks like the spread of the coronavirus delta variant is slowing economic growth. This didn’t have a big impact on bonds, but we can date the start of the run-up in US equity indices and a pull back in the USD to his comments hitting the screens, testament to the ongoing sensitivity the currency and risk markets are exhibiting to the question of when QE tapering starts.

Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Markets Today: Central banks holding back

Markets Today: Central banks holding back

19 August 2021

Following a fair amount of volatility in the immediate wake of the FOMC Minutes US equities are lower, bond yields and the USD are lower, the latter allowing the AUD some relief after posting a new year-to-date low of 0.7229 in the run up to the Minutes, but the gains are already proving hard to hold.

Markets Today: Central banks holding back
Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

17 August 2021

The much weaker than expected China data, lack of encouraging covid news over the weekend – no more so than in Australia – and the news out of Afghanistan which adds another dimension to ever-present geopolitical concerns (in this case, international terrorism) perennially cited as a risk to positive market sentiment – haven’t prevented the S&P 500 closing at a new record high.

Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
Markets Today:  On the road to nowhere

Markets Today: On the road to nowhere

13 August 2021

Quiet night but S&P 500 ekes out a third successive record daily close. Stronger than expected US PPI a reminder that supply chain disruptions are still with us.

Markets Today:  On the road to nowhere
The AUD in July 2021

The AUD in July 2021

2 August 2021

The AUD failed to benefit from the generally weaker USD, in contrast to all other major currencies which rose during the last week of July. From mid-month, a very sharp fall-back in iron ore prices, albeit a commodity with a very fickle and sometimes non-existent short term relationship with the AUD, drew attention

The AUD in July 2021
Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors

Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors

28 July 2021

For the first time, we are now seeing contagion from the sell-off in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese shares, to global markets – the NASDAQ in particular, ending the day down 1.2% in front of the earnings results from Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.

Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors
The AUD in February 2021

The AUD in February 2021

1 March 2021

After what in the end turned out to be a month of consolidation for the AUD in January, with a monthly range of a little over two cents and the close only about half a cent lower than the open, February proved to be a much more volatile month.

The AUD in February 2021
The AUD in December 2020

The AUD in December 2020

11 January 2021

A month ago, we remarked that it was hard to recall a month where AUD/USD made its low point on the first trading day of the month and its high on the last, as was the case in November.

The AUD in December 2020
Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in

Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in

22 December 2020

You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine.

Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in
The AUD in November 2020

The AUD in November 2020

2 December 2020

It’s hard to recall a month when AUD/USD made its low point on the first trading day of the month and its high on the last.

The AUD in November 2020
Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore

Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore

10 November 2020

The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate.

Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore
The AUD in October 2020

The AUD in October 2020

2 November 2020

AUD/USD traded a more subdued range in October than in September (less than 2 ½ cents versus more than 4 cents in September).

The AUD in October 2020
Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID

Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID

6 October 2020

As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to the US economy.

Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID
Markets Today: One big October surprise

Markets Today: One big October surprise

5 October 2020

Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White House as soon as today. So, do the markets take back some of their risk concerns, and focus on the positives of the situation?

Markets Today: One big October surprise