The Aussie dollar came within kissing distance of 66 US cents on Friday
Author
Ray Attrill
“Ray has 30 years experience as an economist and market strategist, obtained in roles working in London, Sydney and New York.”
Ray Attrill is Head of FX Strategy within the Fixed income, Currencies and Commodities division of National Australia Bank.
In this role, he advises the bank’s dealing rooms and institutional and corporate clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.
Ray has 30 years experience as an economist and market strategist, obtained in roles working in London, Sydney and New York. Prior to joining NAB in 2012, he held a similar role at BNP Paribas, based in New York.
He previously amassed considerable experience in research and strategy, being a joint founding partner for 4CAST limited, a leading independent economic and financial market research company. Prior to that, he worked for many years in senior roles at MMS International, also a leading on-line market research provider.
He holds both Master and Bachelor of Science degrees in economics from the London School of Economics.
Recently Published Articles
Markets Today – Flatline
UK best Eurozone on the PMI front in Thanksgiving- thinned markets
Markets Today – The Core
Subdued start to the week ahead of US CPI tonight
Markets Today – Doom and Gloom
Oil prices down again as demand pessimism deepens
The AUD in October 2023
Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.
Markets Today – Talk Talk
Japanese Yen slumps after only minor BoJ policy tweaks
Markets Today – Close but no Cigar
Close but no cigar – US 10 year bonds traded to as high as 4.99% on Friday
Markets Today – Wait and See
Higher US yields and 'risk-off' tone see AUD's hard-fought gains undone
Markets Today – Curse Of The Curves
US CPI reverses much of the earlier week market moves
Markets Today – Hong Kong Garden
Lower US bond yields and softer US dollar lift AUD back above 0.64
Markets Today – Closing Time
Todays Podcast UK gilts lead global bond yields higher, Italy and France also up a lot, budget news hurts Treasuries recoil ~10bps from new (4.685%) high ahead of expected government shutdown tomorrow This plus reduced UAW pay demands, news of possible Xi-Biden meet, boosts US equity sentiment, AUD/USD recovers more than 1% of recent losses […]
Markets Today – The Price You Pay
US equity and FX markets have for once pushed the bond market vigilantes out of the spotlight, albeit the weakness in stocks and strength in the USD doubtless owes something to the lagged impact of the earlier run up in Treasury yields to post 2007 highs
Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)
The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come.
Markets Today – I’ll Oil Wells Love You
Ahead of US CPI tonight, oil prices have ratcheted higher as OPEC+ cuts continue to bite
Markets Today – Top of the World
A rise in Services activity last month confirms the US economy still sits firmly on top of the world
Markets Today – The Best
Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried
The AUD in August 2023
The AUD have an ‘average’ August in terms of its monthly hi-lo range, albeit it fell to a near 10-month beneath 64 cents
Markets Today – ‘Aint No Mountain High Enough (or is there?)
Overnight, the BoE’s Pill references ‘Matterhorn’ versus ‘Table Top Mountain’ approaches to monetary policy
Markets Today – Waltzing Matilda(s)
Aussie retail sales were stronger than expected in July, but World Cup fever was a factor says NAB’s Ray Attrill
Markets Today – Artificial Light
Caution prevails in front of Jackson Hole; stocks down, bond yields back up, AUD back lower
Markets Today – Doom Loop
It’s been onwards and upwards for global bond yields overnight, and AUD has spent time below 64 cents
Markets Today – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
A stark contrast Tuesday between strong US retail sales and very weak China data
Markets Today – Soft Parade
Bond sell-off reverses on softer US payrolls
Markets Today – Schadenfreude
BoE lifts Bank Rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, to limited market reaction. US payrolls tonight
The AUD in July 2023
US, China and local inflation news drove much of the AUD volatility in July
Markets Today – Big in Japan (or perhaps not)
Friday’s BoJ announcements made a bigger initial impression on global bond markets than FX
Markets Today – Devil Inside
AUD approaches 0.68, buoyed by China stimulus news and RMB gains
Markets Today – Against the Grain
Quiet start to week with no market fall-out from weekend Russia news. Weaker Yuan a focus.
Markets Today – Fifty Fifty
The BoE surprises market with 50bps, Norges Bank less so with its 50bps. SNB opts for a ‘hawkish' 25bps
Markets Today – King of the World
AUD ends a big if short local week at the top of the G10 currency pile, AUD/USD +2% w/w
Markets Today – Two of a Kind
Fed pauses as expected but ‘dot plot’ adds two, not one, more rate rises to 2023
Markets Today – When Bad Does Good
Jump in US jobless claims supports lowers US yields and US$; S&P500 back in bull market
Markets Today – Rebel Without a Pause?
Markets go into today’s RBA decision ascribing a roughly 65% chance to a pause
The AUD in May 2023
The AUD fell below 65 cents in May, in doing so re-establishing a more ‘normal’ monthly trading range after two months of highly compressed volatility.
Markets Today – Pause for Thought
The AUD had fallen to a new post November 2022 following more disappointing China data
Markets Today – The Price You Pay
Still no sign of breakthrough on US debt ceiling talks, souring risk sentiment.
Markets Today – Comeback Kid
Markets were spoked on Friday by an unexpected rise in US consumer inafltion expectations
Markets Today – Moderation
Markets are showing relief that the key US CPI release overnight was not higher than expected
Markets Today – Dead Man’s Curve
Latest US yield curve movements are giving an even stronger signal of imminent US recession
The AUD in April 2023
After reducing to just a 2.2 cents range in March, April’s AUD/USD range was little different – 2.3 cents
Markets Today – First (Republic) Time
Us equities haven fallen sharply, bond yields are lower and AUD/USD is back near 0.66, ahead of CPI this morning.
Markets Today – Shake it up
The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations
Markets Today – Empire State of Mind
The uplift in US bond yields continued overnight, supporting the US dollar but not hurting equities
Markets Today – False Claims
There were no major surprises in Friday’s US NFP report, unlike the prior days weekly jobless claims data.
Markets Today – Stick or Twist
Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today
The AUD in March 2023
Following two months of well above-average ranges, the AUD/USD range reduced to just 2.2 cents in March, though the currency did hit a 4-month low of 0.6565.
Markets Today – Everything’s Gonna be Alright
Bond yields are sharply higher overnight, improved sentiment towards the banking sector one key driver
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.
Markets today – ECB sticks to its guns (sort of)
The ECB delivered on its 50bps rate promise but scraps forward guidance. Meanwhile the US’ First Republic Bank gets a $30bn deposit injection from other banks
Markets Today – Panic on the dance floor
Banking sector turmoil is back to the fore driving all markets, today centred on Credit Suisse.
Markets Today: I Feel Better
The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.
Markets Today: (No) Resistance
The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.
The AUD in February 2023
AUD performance in February was an almost exact mirror image of January, AUD/USD trading back down to near 67 cents from above 0.71 cents, having risen from sub-0.67 to above 0.71 in January.
Markets Today: Mixed messages yet a clear one from bond yields
NY Fed’s Williams stressing importance of financial conditions in policy reaction function..
Markets Today: All quiet but for the sound of central bankers
NY Fed’s Williams stressing importance of financial conditions in policy reaction function..
Markets Today: Will the RBA join the push to go higher?
The RBA this afternoon and Powell interview in Washington tonight are today’s main draw cards.
Markets Today: Fed up and the fight ain’t over
Fed hikes by 25bps, signals ‘ongoing rate increases’ will be appropriate..
The AUD in January 2023
AUD/USD began the year at 0.6802 and ended January at 0.7056, a 2.5 cents or 3.7% gain.
Markets Today: Year of the Rabbit. Ready for the bounce?
5% Netflix post-earnings pop helps drive best day for S&P500 in two weeks
Markets Today: Overreaction to Aussie jobs numbers, none to US debt ceiling
USD softer despite ‘risk-off’ market tone.
MT: Big questions for BoJ and BoE, with no easy answers
US out for MLK day holiday. S&P futures little changed
Markets Today: Aussie Retail Therapy & US Inflation-Watch
Ahead of CPI tonight US Treasuries (and bonds globally) have rallied, 10-year US notes off 5bps (3bps of that seen in the Tokyo session) and 2s down just under 2bps.
Markets Today: Early year optimism
Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
BoJ stuns markets with a 0% YCC tolerance band widening…
The AUD in December 2022
AUD/USD ended Dec 2022 much as it started. For 2022 overall, AUD/USD lost 6.2% which was the the second biggest annual range of the past decade, exceeded only in the 2020 first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
The BoJ thus takes out our award for the most unpredictable central bank of 2022.
Markets Today: Hawks fly over frigid Europe
Hawkish ECB rhetoric post 50bps rate rise spooks risk markets
MT: US equities bounce ahead of a divided Fed
A distinctly cautious air prevails in front of tonight’s all-important US CPI release and tomorrow’s FOMC.
The AUD in November 2022
The AUD ended the month in the ascendency, boosted by a less hawkish than feared Fed Chair Powell speech, forcing a broad USD retreat.
MT: China calms down, European inflation eases
China vaccination push sees Hang Seng gains extended to 5%+ by the close
MT: Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil
The single biggest piece of market-moving economic news overnight has come via the US S&P Global PMIs, which slumped to 47.6 from 50.4, well below the 50.0 consensus.
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.
Markets Today: False Hopes?
US CPI, US political gridlock (maybe) and China covid policy tweaks...
Markets Today: Downturns, mid-terms, no U-turns
The NAB Business Survey showed Conditions falling just one point to +22 to remain at very elevated levels, above the pre-pandemic highs for the series.
MT: No Pivot from the Fed, but markets bounce about
FOMC Statement hints at reduced pace of tightening ahead…
The AUD in October 2022
Australia specific influences on AUD once again played second fiddle to broader USD volatility and swings in risk sentiment.
MT: Why do so many expect the Fed to slow down?
Last night’s first Federal Budget under Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers contained no fireworks, falling fully in line with pre-Budget media briefings.
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.
Markets Today: Tails(s) Wag Dog(s)
The selloff in bonds has seen a ‘reversal of the reversal’.
Markets Today: Less jobs before Fed stops
UK markets remain at the epicentre of global market volatility
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.
The AUD in September 2022
The AUD/USD high of 0.6916 came on the 13th and the low of 0.6363 on the 29th (last day of the month).
Markets Today: UK ticked off by IMF, BoE goes back to QE
Bank of England has pledged to buy up to £5bn of longer dated gilts each day for up to 13 days (£65bn total) with a motive of protecting the UK pension industry.
Markets Today: The pound hammered, will it last?
Epicentre of current market turmoil shifts across the Atlantic to UK on Friday
Markets Today: Central bank overload
BoE, SNB and Norges Bank follow the Fed’s +75bps with 50bps, 75bps, 50bps respectively
Markets Today: 0.75% hike by the Fed, no bluff
Fed hikes 75bps as expected, looks for 125bps in ’22 then 25bps more in ‘23
MT: Prepare for a volatile week of Banks and Holidays
Last week will be marked out as one of the more tumultuous for financial markets since the early days of the pandemic, says NAB's Ray Attrill.
Markets Today: Heading higher and taking longer
Volatility has come roaring back in Thursday’s offshore session.
Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet
Today’s podcast Overview Rumours of inflation’s demise much exaggerated US CPI shocks to the upside: stocks, bonds take fright USD bounces back, AUD and NZD both down by more than 2% Next week’s Fed debate now seen to be between 75 and 100bps (83bps priced) German ZEW survey readings slumps while US NFIB Business Optimism […]
MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.
The AUD in August 2022
The AUD/USD spent August oscillating around the 70 US cents mark but spent much more time below than above.
Markets Today: Investors respond to Powell comments
Fed chair Jay Powell’s address to the Kansas Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday was short and as far as equity market investors were concerned, bitter not sweet.
MT: Business activity falls, but not enough to slow the Fed
Composite PMI sub-50 everywhere in the world bar UK; US worst of all.
Markets Today: Fed still trying to show they won’t give in
Following yesterday’s FOMC Minutes overnight we’ve heard from FOMC members wanting the Funds Rate up to 3.75-4.0% this year and questioning why you’d want to drag rate rises out into next year.
Markets Today: Slow boat from China
Oil prices have fallen to their lowest since early February 2022 with falls of around 4% in part due to weaker China demand.
Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.
MT: The quick path to credible disinflation and other stories
A few hours on from Nancy Pelosi leaving Taiwan and markets have almost forgotten she ever came. Equity market have recovered their poise, a tech sector rally seeing the NASDAQ close at its highest level since 4 May.
MT: When is a recession not really a recession?
ECB’s Visco says “there is a risk of a recession” and that ECB policy can’t drive down gas prices.
Markets Today: Then there was one (turbine)
Kremlin confirms 20% cut of gas to Europe from Wednesday. Gas up 9%
Markets Today: Gas to Europe unlikely this week
Oil is the standout mover, Brent +$4.50 and WTI crude +$4.60 on reports Saudi Arabia won’t be pumping any more oil
Markets Today: US Inflation rises, everything is in play
Bank of Canada surprises with ‘front-loaded’ 100bps rate rise
MT: Healthy jobs data bad news for the economy
US June non-farm payroll employment 372k vs. 265k expected.
Markets Today: Significant risk, still?
Higher US yields together with a further drop in the EUR sees the USD in DXY terms now at its highest since September 2002.
The AUD in June 2022
The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.7170, made a high of 0.7283 on June 3 and fell to its monthly low of 0.6851 on June 15.
Markets Today: Is bad news good news these days?
It was a great day for US stocks on Friday, with two-thirds of the mid-month sell-off now retraced.
Markets Today: Powell admits recession is possible
Recession or hard landing fears have taken a firmer hold on most markets in the past 24 hours.
Markets Today: Is the RBA preparing to go harder?
The RBA is front and centre in local markets this morning.
Markets Today: A big step to the soft landing few believe will happen
Fed delivers 75bps rate rise, sees 50 or 75 most likely at next meeting
Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial
Announcing the end of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as of July 1, the ECB also pre-announced a 25bps rise in interest rates out of its July meeting with a further rise planned out of the Sept meeting.
Markets Today: RBA, far from business as usual
RBA surprises (most) for second month running with 50bps Cash Rate rise to 0.85%
The AUD in May 2022
AUD/USD hit a near two-year low of 0.6829 on May 13 after hitting its highest May prints earlier in the month (0.7266, seen on both May 4 and 5).
Markets Today: A piggy bank backed recovery
After having moved briefly into bear market territory the previous Friday, last Friday saw the S&P500 up by its largest weekly gain so far this year.
Markets Today: New Australian government, same global concerns
The S&P500 falls into bear market terrain Friday before late day pull-up
Markets Today: Equities bomb as investors are reminded of inflation
The S&P500 high to low fall since the early January high puts it down 19% year to date and although not officially in bear market territory yet, looks to be only a matter of time.
Markets Today: Powell knocks mega-rise prospects on the head
Powell comments that 75bps isn’t something the FOMC is actively considering and that 50bps is on the table for the next couple of meetings
Markets Today: Breaking the Three Percent Barrier
US 10-year Treasuries have just breached the psychological 3% barrier for the first time since late November 2018 in what has been a further bear steepening of the US curve
The AUD in April 2022
Sentiment toward the AUD went from hero to zero in April.
Markets Today: Russia turns off gas for Poland and Bulgaria
The World Bank has warned the war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s (referencing the 1973 oil embargo).
Markets Today: European bond yields rise sharply
Markets are a little easier to understand today. Bond yields are back on the rise, given inflation expectations and more hawkish rhetoric from central banks.
Markets Today: Bond yields and equities both rise sharply
It’s not something that will continue for long, but US bond yields have risen sharply today, and so have equities. Which one will give in first?
Markets Today: Big hikes, more inflation, but bonds settle down
Despite 50 basis point hikes by the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ over the last 24 hours, bond yields haven’t moved a great deal.
Markets Today: Rates push ever higher as food prices soar
No respite from rising Treasury yields – 10s up another 4bps to 2.70% +32bps on week further hurting tech. stocks/NASDAQ vs other indices and boosting USD DXY index to 100.
Markets Today: Fed to slash balance sheet sooner rather than later
FOMC Minutes reveal plans for much faster and more aggressive balance sheet reduction than 2017-2019
The AUD in March 2022
AUD volatility picked up in March, almost all accounted for by Global factors.
Markets Today: Europe boosted by peace hopes
Last night’s Federal Budget contained few surprises and won’t be a big influence on markets this morning.
Markets Today: Powell talking faster than fast
US bond yields march higher pre and post Powell speech
Markets Today: Peace hopes and understanding
AUD/USD closed above 0.74 for the first time this year, cementing its position as the world’s strongest G10 currency year to date.
Markets Today: China hit by COVID and Russian relationship
A switch of market focus from Ukraine to China (and Hong Kong)
Markets Today: Risk on, but so too is the war
War still rages, but Eurozone stocks and EUR roar back to life
Markets Today: Day 12 brought more volatility, the search for safety
Germany rejects proposed US, EU embargo on Russian oil imports
The AUD in February 2022
Despite being the month when Russia invaded Ukraine, the high-low range in AUD/USD was less than in January.
Markets Today: A swift response to the Ukrainian crisis
Markets are opening up to headlines that ‘Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on ‘special alert’.
Markets Today: Putting the Squeeze on Putin’s ‘Squalid Venture’
Biden announces range of sanctions on Russia, but not including SWIFT.
Markets Today: Biden’s sanctions first step against Putin’s ‘invasion’
Restrained market reactions so far (bar oil) to Russia-Ukraine developments…
Markets Today: Oil rising whilst Putin sits tight
The standout data point overnight was US Retail Sales, which came in well above consensus expectations.
Markets Today: Putin on the brink, Fed ‘out of sync’
The S&P is back in the red (-0.5%) following reports of satellite images being circulated purportedly showing Russian troops leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions.
Markets Today: Bond sell-off on hold ahead of US inflation numbers
Lots of central bank speak from Fed, BoC, ECB and BoE today
Markets Today: Markets still guessing the path of inflation
Inflation and related central bank thinking remains by far the bigger influence on market sentiment
The AUD in January 2022
It was an eventful start to the year, AUD/USD tracing out a range from a high of 0.7314 (Jan 13) to a low of 0.6965 (Jan 30)
Markets Today: Aussie dollar loses break point
AUD below 0.70 to lowest since mid-July 2020 – month end could be a factor
Markets Today: The aftermath of the Fed
Shares attempts a recovery but US equities back in negative territory in afternoon trade
Markets Today: Ukraine fears creates a risk off sell off
Geopolitics has had an influence on markets today, but the influence of the Fed should still not be underestimated.
Markets Today: Fed ready to fight inflation on two fronts
Latest flurry ahead of January 25-26 FOMC suggests March rates lift off expected.
The AUD in December 2021
AUD/USD made its low point for the year on Dec.3 at 0.6993 – the pair’s only foray below 0.7000 in 2021.
Markets Today: Europe’s cold cold Christmas
Commodity market news overnight is a fresh surge in European gas prices
Markets Today: UK empties the glass, but markets still half full
Limited market reactions to ‘as expected’ US CPI – 6.8% headline highest since June 1982
Markets Today: Transmission and inflation – the two concerns
Risk tone deteriorates in front of US CPI tonight, lack of positive new news on Omicron
Markets Today: Omicron’s not so bad, markets hope
Markets continue to travel with optimism that Omicron will not have the severity of prior variants in terms of health outcomes, even if it is more transmissible.
Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
The US CDC has just identified the first case of Omicron in the United States – joining the UK, Switzerland and Brazil overnight – at a time when US infection rates of the delta variant had already started creeping back up.
The AUD in November 2021
The overwhelming negative influence late in the month was the emergence of the Omicron covid-19 variant and doubts over the efficacy of existing vaccines against this strain and all that might imply for the global economic re-opening process.
Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
Global markets have seen a modest retracement of many of last Friday’s violent ‘risk-off’ moves, with equities higher in Europe, so too US government yields up, as too is oil, but in all cases to nowhere near Friday’s closing levels.
Markets Today: Happy tales from Euroland
Eurozone PMIs spring upside surprise, supporting EUR and holding USD in check
Markets Today: US dollar rises as Powell stays put
Ahead of a speech by President Biden later today on the economy and inflation, we got news that Jay Powell is to be re-appointed to a second term as Fed chair.
Markets Today: US facing higher prices, more quits, falling sentiment
US stocks had a positive day on Friday, so further recouping some of last Tuesday and Wednesday’s pre and post CPI weakness
Markets Today: Have a little faith
The US has been out for Veterans Day, though stock markets have been open and have recouped a little of their pre and post US CPI losses
Markets Today: Markets out of steam on inflation day
Risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse with the first S&P down day in nine.
Markets Today: Tighter but taking time
No surprises from the FOMC in its formal policy pronouncement, the Fed announcing a November start to the QE tapering process at the as-expected pace of $15bn per month.
Markets Today: RBA more uncertain than the cup winner
Stock mostly firmer at start of new month, Europe faring better than US where S&P 500 ends +0.2%
The AUD in October 2021
The RBA’s failure to buy the bond in the days following the Q3 CPI report convinced the market the YCC target at least in current form, was set to be formally abandoned out of the 2 November Board meeting.
Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal
Friday’s main economic events, namely the ‘flash’ PMIs, tell us that there is little reason to fear stagnation, for the time being at least, given still elevated levels for all readings across Europe and the US.
Markets Today: Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high
The biggest moves across Global Markets have been seen in the US rates market, where break-even inflation rates have jumped by a full 10 basis points at both 5 and 10 years.
Markets Today: Earnings anything but a damp squid
If the market is rethinking how soon the Fed might lift rates, there was nothing from incoming Fed speakers overnight to support this view.
Markets Today: Have inflation concerns peaked?
The sun has been shining on risk sentiment, commodity prices and commodity currencies overnight
Markets Today: IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation
The ‘Quit Rate’ is the highest on record, reflective of the ease which workers are switching jobs, in part at least for better pay or conditions elsewhere.
Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?
Words from politicians of various stripes have gone a little way to alleviating two of the major concerns currently plaguing global markets, namely the ongoing energy crisis centred on Europe and the looming deadline for lifting or scrapping the US debt ceiling
Markets Today: Stagflation consternation as OPEC sticks to the plan
NSW meeting the 70% full vaccination target may be announced as early today (more likely tomorrow) in which case it may well attract more local media headlines than the RBA meeting.
The AUD in September 2021
Forces acting on the AUD (and other commodity linked currencies) independent of USD strength in September were largely China related.
Markets Today: China secures fuel at all costs
US equity losses accelerate into Thursday’s close; worse month for S&P500 since March 2020
Markets Today: Is reflation back? Commodities push even higher
10yr Treasuries spend time above 1.50%. Neither equities nor USD seem to care….
Markets Today: Add the US debt ceiling to the list of concerns
Week ends quietly after Evergrande/FOMC related volatility earlier in the week
Markets Today: Not yet, but soon says the Fed
Fed tees up November taper announcement, subject to reasonably good Sep. employment report
Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears
A torrid day for Hong Kong’s hang Seng index yesterday, driven by sharp fall in property sector stocks and led by a 16% fall in Evergrande ahead of Thursday’s bond coupon payment day, spilled over to the global arena on Monday with equities down sharply, bond yields lower and safe haven currencies in the ascendancy.
Markets Today: Bank of Canada on pause, ECB unlikely to do the same
US equity markets slip for second day, bigger falls in Europe amid more cautious mood. NY Fed’s Williams re-enforces markets views post-Jackson Hole, August payrolls.
Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks
US markets being out for the Labor Day holiday hasn’t prevented global equity markets forging ahead. The US dollar has recouped a little of its (further) losses seen post last Friday’s US payrolls report and since AUD and NZD have been the two biggest beneficiaries of USD slippage of late, no great surprise they have lost a little more than most other currencies overnight.
Markets Today: Only currencies making moves ahead of US jobs numbers
In what have been predictably quiet bond and equity markets ahead of US payrolls tonight, currencies are continuing to enjoy their week in the sun.
The AUD in August 2021
Almost, but not quite, a round-trip for AUD/USD in August.
Markets Today: Falling production, higher prices turns sentiment around
Month end flows interrupt week-long USD depreciation trend but AUD and NZD have done enough work to suggest a base is now in after failing to take a hit from weak China PMI data.
Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Mid-morning in Friday’s US trading day, Bob Kaplan said he may rethink his call for the Fed to quickly start to taper its $120 billion per month in bond purchases if it looks like the spread of the coronavirus delta variant is slowing economic growth. This didn’t have a big impact on bonds, but we can date the start of the run-up in US equity indices and a pull back in the USD to his comments hitting the screens, testament to the ongoing sensitivity the currency and risk markets are exhibiting to the question of when QE tapering starts.
Markets Today: Central banks holding back
Following a fair amount of volatility in the immediate wake of the FOMC Minutes US equities are lower, bond yields and the USD are lower, the latter allowing the AUD some relief after posting a new year-to-date low of 0.7229 in the run up to the Minutes, but the gains are already proving hard to hold.
Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
The much weaker than expected China data, lack of encouraging covid news over the weekend – no more so than in Australia – and the news out of Afghanistan which adds another dimension to ever-present geopolitical concerns (in this case, international terrorism) perennially cited as a risk to positive market sentiment – haven’t prevented the S&P 500 closing at a new record high.
Markets Today: On the road to nowhere
Quiet night but S&P 500 ekes out a third successive record daily close. Stronger than expected US PPI a reminder that supply chain disruptions are still with us.
Markets Today: Will US CPI give markets the direction they are looking for?
US Senate passes $550bn Infrastructure bill as expected but still a road ahead for passage by House. No positive covid developments overnight, but markets behaving as though there were. New record high for Eurostoxx 50, S&P500 closes flat, NASDAQ pressured by higher bond yields.
The AUD in July 2021
The AUD failed to benefit from the generally weaker USD, in contrast to all other major currencies which rose during the last week of July. From mid-month, a very sharp fall-back in iron ore prices, albeit a commodity with a very fickle and sometimes non-existent short term relationship with the AUD, drew attention
Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors
For the first time, we are now seeing contagion from the sell-off in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese shares, to global markets – the NASDAQ in particular, ending the day down 1.2% in front of the earnings results from Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.
Markets Today: Strong earnings, cautious ECB and NZ’s first day without QE
Monday’s delta blues are once again talking back-seat in driving markets, the winning streak in the major US stock indices extending to a third day as incoming quarterly earnings reports for the most part continue to beat expectations, the S&P500 closing within 0.4% of last Mondays record high.
Markets Today: Markets recover, but why?
The Delta variant continues to spread, vaccination rates have slowed, and case numbers are rising.
Markets Today: Delta’s day off
A swift turnaround in market sentiment on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill provides some of the reasons.
Markets Today: Fed minutes trumped by ECB strategy review
The FOMC minutes did little for cautious markets. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the outcome of the ECB’s Strategic Review should hold more interest.
Markets Today: Freedom Day for the UK and D-Day for the RBA
What follows the QE2 in September? NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market is expecting a flexible target, but that we can expect a ripple of surprises from the RBA today.
The AUD in June 2021
The AUD traded in a wider range in June relative to May
Markets Today: Lock down means no RBA lowdown
The impact of the latest lockdown and Biden’s stimulus backflip. NAB’s Ray Attrill on two bits of news for markets to respond to this morning.
Markets Today: Biden whittles down infrastructure plan to win support
Equities driven higher by Biden’s infrastructure plan deal. NAB’s Gavin Friend says bond markets were unmoved by Fed speakers suggesting higher inflation for longer and rate rises sooner.
Markets Today: Fed cools things down, words from the RBA later
The global reflation trade is not dead, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as Fed speakers help markets further unwind their response to last week’s FOMC.
Markets Today: NZ GDP, Aussie employment both punch the lights out but currencies fall
The US dollar continued to rise yesterday, after the hawkish comments from the Fed.
Markets Today: Fed speeds up rate hike roadmap
At the FOMC meeting this morning the Fed upped their growth and inflation forecasts, with the dot plots pointing to rate rises as soon as 2023.
Markets Today: Oil nudges higher
Oil has hit a two-year high.
Markets Today: Goldilocks loses a little of her shine
If non-farm payrolls gave markets a Goldilocks moment on Friday then maybe markets are already starting to question whether it was exactly what was needed.
The AUD in May 2021
May was the lowest volatility month so far in 2021.
Markets Today: Month end comes early for some
It was an early start to month-end on Friday, with the US and UK off on holiday today.
Markets Today: More central bankers wanting to ease off the pedal
Three central bankers argued for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy overnight.
Markets Today: China gets Yuan up on the dollar
The US dollar has fallen again with rises in the Euro and a shift up in the Yuan, but will it stick?
Markets Today: Long ways to go, says Powell
“long ways to go” is the Fed’s Jerome Powell’s take on the path to recovery for the American economy and the reason that rates won’t be lifting anytime soon.
Markets Today: Reflation reigns for now
Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data.
Markets Today: Rumoured US tax grab
Shares in the US have fallen on news of a planned sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans.
Markets Today: Markets cautious over speed of recovery
There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now.
Markets Today: Topsy turvey response to a good news day
The news was largely positive overnight.
Markets Today: US CPI today
It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 12 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Markets lacklustre
It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 6 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: US bounce pushes equities to record highs
US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data.
Markets Today: Biden the builder
US 10 year Treasury yields hit a 14 month high overnight, as the US dollar rose higher.
Currency spotlight: Euro
This podcast focuses on the Euro - it's drivers and outlook.
Markets Today: ECB to buy faster, US job claims slowing
Asset markets continue to be drawn by bond markets.
Markets Today: Another big share flip
Shares have reverted to a focus on tech in the US with a sharp rise in tech stocks.
Markets Today: US – strong jobs numbers, $1.9 trillion injection almost there
The US senate has passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, so it will almost certainly become law this week.
Currency spotlight: AUD/USD
The AUD/USD in 2021 – the story so far and what lies ahead?
Markets Today: Australia’s growth, China’s warning
All eyes will be on Australia’s GDP read this morning, which Ray Attrill says is expected to be close to 3% growth QoQ, driven by consumer spending.
The AUD in February 2021
After what in the end turned out to be a month of consolidation for the AUD in January, with a monthly range of a little over two cents and the close only about half a cent lower than the open, February proved to be a much more volatile month.
Markets Today: Multi-year highs for the Aussie Dollar and Sterling, whilst US yields shoot higher
There was a big rise in the Aussie dollar and the pound on Friday, both reaching multi-year highs.
Markets Today: US – more shopping, higher producer prices
There was a strong bounce back in US retail sales in January.
Markets Today: US rest day can’t stop reflation
America has been off work for Presidents Day, but that hasn’t stopped markets optimistically looking to a world where COVID-19 isn’t centre stage.
Markets Today: Powell’s slow road
It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours with only slight market moves
Markets Today: China’s credit surprise boosts Euro. Here’s why.
The Euro gained on two fronts overnight.
Markets Today: New Zealand – first out?
New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels.
Markets Today: Vaccine delays throw dampener on recovery timelines
Markets turned sharply to a risk-off mood at the end of last week, on the realisation that vaccine roll outs will take longer than hoped whilst infections are growing.
Markets Today: ECB sticks with bond buying plans
The ECB changed nothing overnight, with President Lagarde saying risks remained on the downside.
Markets Today: America goes gaga as Janet Yellen acts big
It’s Inauguration Day, or it will be when Wednesday eventually ticks round in the US.
Markets Today: How much stimulus is too much?
Bond yields continue to rise in the US as markets prepare for an expected multi-trillion dollar stimulus package from the President-elect.
The AUD in December 2020
A month ago, we remarked that it was hard to recall a month where AUD/USD made its low point on the first trading day of the month and its high on the last, as was the case in November.
Markets Today: A Blue Wave into 2021
The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off pretty much where we left off.
Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in
You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine.
Markets Today: Imminent fiscal deal
There's rising hopes that a US fiscal stimulus deal is imminent.
Markets Today: Vaccine optimism dimmed by new strain
The markets lost some of their mojo today.
Markets Today: 60 percent chance of a UK-EU trade deal
US equities reached new highs again on Friday even though the jobs numbers were lower than anticipated.
Markets Today: More US stimulus talk; less Brexit hope
The pound has taken a sharp hit as Brexit talks don’t seem to have progressed much at all.
The AUD in November 2020
It’s hard to recall a month when AUD/USD made its low point on the first trading day of the month and its high on the last.
Markets Today: Month-end rebalancing
The US dollar was losing ground for most of the session before a sudden reversal that knocked the Euro off a multi-year high.
Markets Today: Not much to be thankful for
It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and markets have been cautious ahead of the holidays.
Markets Today: Vaccine vs infections – the only news that seems to matter
Last week was a volatile one, but markets enthusiasm stemming from the hope of a vaccine led the charge, with some shifting of focus on equity markets.
Markets Today: Vaccine rally continues but central banks more guarded
Even though the markets continue to respond positively to the hope of a vaccine, central bankers seem to be taking a more cautious tone.
Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore
The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate.
Markets Today: Divided they stand
US equities have climbed as the US goes through Wednesday without a clear winner in the election.
Markets Today: Markets turn green on hope of a blue victory
Markets flipped from Friday’s share and bond sell-off, with more optimism a day or two out from what is expected to be a Biden victory.
The AUD in October 2020
AUD/USD traded a more subdued range in October than in September (less than 2 ½ cents versus more than 4 cents in September).
Markets Today: Markets running scared at start of Halloween week
Last week finished with US stocks down, the US dollar down and the price of bonds down.
Markets Today: Look who’s talking (x2)
Talks are back on.
Markets Today: Deal or no deal, transatlantic edition
Markets are waiting to see the outcome of two on again off again decisions, both with sizeable economic consequences.
Markets Today: Trump talks it up. Will Lowe talk it down?
Philip Lowe, the Governor of the RBA, is talking this morning.
Markets Today: Aussie down with Renminbi; Barrett trumps stimulus on Columbus Day
The US Senate is seemingly preoccupied with pushing through Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court nominee, casting aside any bandwidth for fiscal stimulus talks.
Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID
As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to the US economy.
The AUD in September 2020
It was quite a fall from grace for AUD/USD in September.
Markets Today: One big October surprise
Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White House as soon as today. So, do the markets take back some of their risk concerns, and focus on the positives of the situation?
Markets Today: Fiscal stalemate and long tunnel vision
Equities in the US rose overnight despite a stalemate on the fiscal stimulus package.
Markets Today: No more heroes anymore
Despite a big jump in confidence in the Conference Board numbers for the US, there’s not much optimism in the markets today.
Markets Today: Courting support ahead of election debates
COVID19 cases continue to rise in Europe, with numbers in the UK and France now well above the first wave.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar falls as risk sentiment deteriorates
NAB had forecast that the Aussie dollar would reach 74 US cents by the end of the year. It did earlier this month but, as global risk sentiment rises, it is rapidly losing ground.
Markets Today: Equities fall; bond yields weaken
Concerns over the impact of a second wave in the US and Europe seem to be gathering momentum, driving investors to government bonds and safe-haven currencies.
Markets Today: equities still rise
The US dollar managed a slight recovery which has also seen continued growth in US equities.
The AUD in August 2020
August proved to be a big month for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: US dollar falls as Fed’s policy sinks in
The US dollar bore the brunt of Friday’s reflective thinking on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
Markets Today: Powell’s ‘average’ address
Jerome Powell used his virtual address to the Jackson Hole Symposium to announce the Fed’s strategy of targeting an ‘average’ 2% inflation rate
Markets Today: Choppy waters with a flash of hope for Germany
The US dollar is down again with equities up and touching new highs again.
Markets Today: Europe slows down
Europe’s PMI’s disappointed markets on Friday, whereas the US numbers were better than expected.
Markets Today: FOMC minutes fail to map out direction
There was disappointment from investors after the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting were released.
Markets Today: Aussie flies higher
The US dollar continues to fall, pushing the Aussie dollar higher this morning.
Markets Today: US equities head for highs
US equities continue to race upwards, at or near record highs.
Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs
The latest JOLTs (job openings) showed there are 5.9 million jobs available, more than expected, but it didn’t give markets any kick.
Markets Today: The big US slowdown, Trump talks election delays
The US dollar continued to slide, with a fall in shares and US Treasury yields, as GDP numbers showed the extent of the shock to the US economy in Q2.
Markets Today: Gold bubbles higher; mighty dollar falls further
Gold has reached a record high, whilst the US dollar continues to slide.
Markets Today: Markets tumble; optimism turns to Europe
It's been a classic risk-off session so far, at least in the second half.
Markets Today: Europe shines brighter
The Aussie dollar rose over 1.7 percent, helped by the gain in the Euro after leaders there reached an agreement on a European Rescue Plan.
Markets Today: China news and virus news
Markets opted to take the positive news on Friday, sending shares higher and the US dollar lower.
The AUD in June 2020
Intra-month range extremes for AUD/USD in June came in the first ten days of the month.
Markets Today: Confidence vs COVID – the battle continues
Markets are split between the confidence things might be getting better versus the realisation that in the US southern states infection rates (and fatalities) are getting worse.
Markets Today: Look out for the cloud in the silver lining
Everyone is seeing the silver lining, but clouds could be forming.
Markets Today: lifeboats for Hong Kong; vaccine for COVID
The overnight session started on a sour note over increasing concerns about Hong Kong.
Markets Today: Taking stock on a no-bad news day
There’s a little positive sentiment pushing shares higher again today and helping the US dollar gain on the Yen and Swiss Franc.
Markets Today: Markets torn
Last week was a choppy week as markets tried to balance out positive economic news against rising concerns about COVID-19 infections.
Markets Today: Back to work but not for everyone
Markets continue to be jittery, with news of reopenings offset by concern over rising infection rates.
Markets Today: Fed goes further
Globally equities had been dampened on Monday morning but equities are back on the rise in the US.
Markets Today: investors run for cover
There’s been a swift move to bonds and safe haven currencies since the Fed’s message yesterday that it would take a couple of years at least for life to return to normal.
Markets Today: Is the US bouncing back sooner than expected?
Equity markets continue to rise and the US dollar continues to weaken with increasing risk-on sentiment.
Markets Today: ECB extends its shopping spree
The ECB announced it will extend its bond buying program by a further €600b.
Markets Today: The rise and rise of the Aussie dollar
The Australian dollar has climbed even higher this morning, reaching 68 US cents.
Markets Today: Hong Kong returns to pre-COVID protests
The unrest in Hong Kong is likely to impact the Australian dollar.
Markets Today: Equities hit by China’s clashes with the US
Market sentiment was tempered somewhat by rising rhetoric between the US and China.
Markets Today: Taking a deep breath
Markets have controlled their excitement after the burst of optimism over a potential COVID-19 vaccine.
Markets Today: Powell’s negative tone talks down markets
The Fed’s Governor Jerome Powell took a very sombre tone about the response to the COVID-19 crisis.
Markets Today: AUD falls despite continued recovery hopes
When we’ve had positive risk sentiment in the past we’ve tended to see a stronger Aussie dollar but that’s not the case today.
Markets Today: Bad start to a potentially rocky month
May got off to a bad start on Friday with falls in equities and the Aussie dollar the worst currency on the day.
Markets Today: Month-end; fewer jobs
Month-end has seen a broad sell-off of the US dollar.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar pushing ahead
The Aussie dollar has been steadily rising, now around 65 US cents.
Markets Today: Shares rise, oil calmer & EU prepares next steps
Oil prices have recovered somewhat and equities have risen again.
Markets Today: oil prices fall heavily into negative territory
WTI lurched into negative territory with a vengeance.
Markets Today: Buying credit and cutting oil
The US Fed has extended its QE shopping list, agreeing to buy junk bonds from corporations suffering the impacts of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: Equities rise as Europe’s curves flatten
Optimism is being driven by the infection and fatality curves for COVID-19 in Europe and the US.
Markets Today: Bad start to the quarter
The quarter has started with big falls again on equity markets and lower Treasury yields, whilst oil prices continue to be driven downwards.
The AUD in March 2020
The AUD/USD collapsed in March to its lowest levels since 2003. Read our summary of what impacted the course of the AUD/USD during the month.
Markets Today: See you on the other side
Scott Morrison’s job retention program helped equities yesterday but doesn’t explain the rise in the US and Europe.
Markets Today: US equities rise on stimulus
US equities rose sharply overnight despite the news unemployment claims in the US have risen to 3.2 million for the week to March 21.
Markets Today: Unlimited QE
The US Fed announces unlimited QE.
Markets Today: what’s driving today’s sea of green?
Oil has shot up in price, with equities rising too and there’s a bit more interest in government bonds.
Market’s today: Aussie’s new low & US ‘Helicopter’ money
The Aussie dollar has fallen below the post GFC low.
Markets Today: Oil price battle will add to volatility
The rush to bonds continued on Friday, hitting new lows for Treasury yields, even as equities in the US saw a last-minute push and actually finished the week up a little.
The AUD in February 2020
Intensification of concerns about the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus culminated in new 11-year lows for AUD/USD at 0.6435 on the last day of the month.
Markets Today: Markets rest hope on government stimulus
Equities and the US dollar have bounced back even if bond yields remain low.
Markets Today: RBA ready to cut; G7 phone call helps markets
Central bankers and finance ministers are hooking-up on a conference call later today to discuss a coordinated response to the impact of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: rout resumes on fears of the unknown
Thursday proved to be a very volatile day towards the end of a very volatile week.
Markets Today: Sharp moves as COVID-19 concern reaches fever pitch
The extent of the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea, Europe and numerous other countries, has driven a major fallout in markets overnight.
Markets Today: Markets latch on to falling infection rates
Markets are cautiously hoping the worst of the coronavirus is over.
Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits
The markets slipped momentarily into risk-off as the number of COVID-19 infections jumped in volume, but concern slipped back a little as it became clear that the way cases were being measured had changed.
Markets Today: Powell talks shares down; Aussie rises
Trump tweeted as Jerome Powell spoke saying shares were falling the more he spoke.
Markets Today: Virus hits equities
Coronavirus continues to cause concerns, hitting all asset classes overnight, including US and European equities.
Markets Today: Markets rethink corona risk
US stocks have rebounded after a day when they were hit hard over concerns on the spread of the coronavirus.
NAB FX Update: the early-year view of the AUD in 2020
Our Head of FX Research shares his views on how the AUD will perform against the USD in the first half of 2020 – listen now.
Markets Today: Equities race higher on trade optimism
The rally in US equities continued at the end of the week, with the optimism spreading to Europe.
Markets Today: Retail numbers push US equities even higher
US equities rose higher still on the back of the latest US retail numbers.
Markets Today: China not a currency manipulator
There are reports the US Treasury Department will no-longer consider China a currency manipulator.
Markets Today: Are we set for a year of higher growth?
In our first podcast of 2020, Ray Attrill discusses the week’s economic news and the broader prospects for the year ahead.
Markets Today: Dazed and confused
We’re ending the week with risk sentiment at its best level of the year.
Markets Today: Better
It’s been a particularly bad 24 hours for the AUD (if you aren’t an Australian exporter, that is).
Markets Today: From uncertainty to positivity? The Year Ahead.
With renewed hopes for a Brexit deal and a truce at least on the US China dispute, could 2020 be a year of strong growth?
Markets Today: Slow day with steepening yields & softer pound
Not much movement in currencies or equities.
Markets Today: Are shares heading for a melt up?
There’s been feverish activity in equity markets over the last 24 hours as investors respond to the US-China trade deal and the removal of Brexit uncertainty (for now).
Markets Today: More interest in trade deal than impeachment
The markets continue to ignore the US impeachment proceedings.
Markets Today: Good jobs news – bad for a trade deal?
Jobs numbers from the US on Friday were well above expectations and we saw a swift response in the markets.
Markets Today: Pound Rises, Oil Shoots Up, Trump Leaves Early
Oil has been the big mover overnight ahead of the OPEC summit.
Markets Today: Markets positive on US data
For once US markets have been driven not by trade talks, but by hard numbers.
Markets Today: Trade hope sends stocks high
The hope that something will happen soon between the US and china has sent US equities to new highs.
Markets Today: Will Human Rights Bill scupper a trade deal?
Markets adopted a mild risk-off mood overnight.
Markets Today: AUD fall continues, bond yields down as trade delay persists
The Aussie dollar fell sharply yesterday on the back of disappointing jobs numbers, followed by weaker than anticipated activity data from China.
Markets Today: Simply irresistible
The fact Trump wasn’t entirely keen on giving up existing tariffs hasn’t stopped investors from pushing equity prices higher.
Markets Today: No time, no place, no momentum
Market sentiment has done a complete U-turn.
Markets Today: Shocking shopping statistics
Yesterday’s retail numbers showed Australians are cutting back on their shopping habits.
Markets Today: Phase 2 deal unlikely
There’s a risk-off mood today.
Markets Today: Aussie CPI today, Fed tomorrow
Australia’s CPI read today and US GDP numbers tonight.
Markets Today: Fed easing, trade hopes rising, Brexit stalling
A rate cut is anticipated by the Fed and there’s further hope a phase one deal will be signed by the US and China.
Markets Today: Au revoir Draghi, Bonjour UK election
Mario Draghi is preparing to chair his last ECB meeting, with no expectation he will move rates.
Markets Today: Brexit & tariff Déjà vu
Two familiar stories dominated the markets overnight.
Markets Today: Brexit vibe is positive
The pound has risen again as negotiations continue into the night (again) over a Brexit deal.
Markets Today: GBP higher on Brexit midnight mercy dash
The pound is riding higher on the back of optimism.
Markets Today: Deals falling off the table
Even though trade talks are still going ahead between the US and China this week, what little hope of any sort of outcome, seems to be rapidly diminishing.
Markets Today: US Services sector slips & rate cut hopes rise
In the US the non-manufacturing ISM read came in a lot lower than expected.
Markets Today: RBA takes aim
The markets have reacted firmly to news from the RBA yesterday.
Markets Today: Will jobless numbers push the RBA to cut sooner?
There’s rising expectation the RBA will cut interest rates at their next meeting.
Markets Today: Oil attack hits supplies
Attacks on the world’s largest oil refinery has hit global supplies hard.
Markets Today: QE is back at the ECB
The ECB is to reintroduce quantitative easing.
Markets Today: Trade war impacts as ECB prepares to pull out the stops
US payrolls numbers disappointed a little on Friday and China’s trade numbers over the weekend demonstrated what impact the trade war is having.
Markets Today: China’s olive branch supports risk-on mood
In the US, the dollar, equities and bond yields have all risen on the news that China would rather talk than retaliate.
Markets Today: trade war ratchets up
China’s official response to President Trump’s latest round of import tariffs sent markets into a spin on Friday.
Markets Today: US & Europe manufacturing weak
Markit PMIs show US manufacturing has contracted, whilst in Europe it remains in a slump but hasn’t fallen as far as anticipated.
Markets Today: Markets retreat as Conte goes
The markets retreated from yesterday’s optimism.
FX podcast: revised AUD outlook
In this month’s FX Podcast, Ray Attrill and Phil Dobbie discuss NAB’s revised outlook for the AUD.
Markets Today: Bond yields & equities dive
It’s far from a quiet day in markets.
Markets Today: Argentina election shock & HK airport closure
There’s a continued risk-off mood in the markets today, not helped by protestors forcing the closure of Hong Kong Airport and a surprise defeat of Argentina’s President Macri in primary elections at the weekend.
Markets Today: Market prices US-China trade escalation
There was a swift market reaction to President Trump’s announcement of further tariffs on imports from China
Markets Today: Fed cuts as expected but markets still react
There was some short-term market reaction during Powell's press conference.
Markets Today: Hard Brexit or quick election?
The pound took another hit today, now at its lowest level since March 2017.
Markets Today: Heading for a half percent cut?
Could the Fed be careering to a half percent rate cut at the end of the month?
FX Podcast: FED likely to cut rates; what’s next for the AUD?
Ray Attrill discusses whats next for the AUD as it returns above 0.70 USD.
Markets Today: China trade slows
China reported disappointing import numbers at the close on Friday.
Markets Today: Powell ignores payroll
Jerome Powell has sent the markets back to where they were before the non-farm payrolls data last week.
Markets Today: Tariffs bite
Ray Attrill explains how the latest small business survey data in the US shows signs that tariffs on Chinese imports might be starting to make their mark.
Markets Today: Record highs on equities; bond yields fall
US equities took an early mark on record highs, whilst bond yields fell further.
Markets Today: RBA in Darwin adding heat to the economy
The RBA meets in Darwin today and is expected to cut interest rates.
Markets Today: glimmer of hope for Europe
European markets reacted to better than expected PMI numbers on Friday
Markets Today: After the Fed
The market continues to respond to the Dovish Fed statement yesterday with a rally in US equities, falls in Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar.
Markets Today: Draghi dovish; China talks hopeful
There’s been a lot of movement in equities and bonds.
Markets Today: All eyes on Portugal, the Gulf & US
What picture will Mario Draghi paint of the European economy at the ECB forum today and what does he intend to do about it?
Strategic FX update: June 2019
In this month’s currency podcast, our Head of FX Strategy discusses some changes to NAB’s FX AUD forecasts.
Markets Today: Pipeline sanctions threat as Trump turns focus to Europe
News of President Trump threatening sanctions on Germany had an immediate impact on the Euro.
Markets Today: Markets react to end of Mexican stand off
There’s a ‘risk on’ mood in the markets this morning after Friday’s u-turn by the US President over Mexican tariffs.
Markets Today: Too much oil, hope for Mexico and ECB on hold?
Markets are hopeful that a deal will be reached between the US and Mexico, and tariffs will be avoided.
Markets Today: RBA rate cut, Fed to follow
The RBA is expected to cut interest rates today, but more interesting will be what Philip Lowe says this evening.
Markets Today: Treasury yields fall further as rate cut expectations rise
Treasury yields have continued their downward direction indicating growing expectations for a Fed rate cut – possibly three.
Markets Today: Party for two
Consumer confidence in the US hit a six month high, yet there’s a continued flight to bonds, pushing Treasury yields to the lowest level since September 2017.
Markets Today: EU votes, Tories squabble, Trump golfs
Markets calmed a great deal on Friday.
Markets Today: Cold war
There have been significant moves overnight, with the US dollar losing ground against the Yen and Swiss Franc.
Markets Today: FOMC patient, May stubborn, Trump determined
In the FOMC minutes the Fed reiterated its pledge to wait and see on interest rates.
Markets Today: Huawei on hold & Lowe goes lower
US equities have been boosted by a brief reprieve on Huawei trading restrictions.
Strategic FX update: May 2019
Join NAB's Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill as he sits down with Phil Dobbie to discuss his outlook for the FX market.
Markets Today: Soft in the centre
Friday’s headline US GDP numbers was surprisingly strong.
Markets Today: US equities ride high
Earnings results have pushed US equities to record highs.
Markets Today: US blanket ban on Iranian oil
The Trump administration announces an end to waivers for nations buying Iranian oil.
Strategic FX update: April 2019
Join NAB's Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill as he sits down with Phil Dobbie to discuss the recent release of NAB's updated FX forecasts.
Markets Today: US bank earnings disappoint
The week’s got off to a quiet start.
Markets Today: Black hole brighter than May’s future?
What did the RBA’s Guy Debelle say yesterday to spur the Aussie dollar on so much?
Markets Today: All tomorrow’s parties
It’s been a quiet 24 hours that has seen stocks lose some of their gains of last week.
Markets Today: Waiting on the payroll
US payrolls data is out this evening (Australia time) and, unless something else is brewing, markets tend to tread water in anticipation.
Markets Today: Soft parade
There was continued optimism in the markets overnight with more strong data reads from China and the US.
Markets Today: Drowning (Wo)Man
The UK Prime Minister will table her Withdrawal Agreement again tonight.
Markets Today: Hope supports shares & the AUD
The US stock market has rebounded helping the Aussie dollar.
Markets Today: Fed loses its dots
The US Fed has revised its growth forecasts for this year and next, and removed all dot points for rate moves this year.
Markets Today: A little bit longer
Why are the Aussie and New Zealand dollars amongst the worst performers overnight?
Markets Today: Goodbye to a no-deal Brexit
And signs that the European economy might be levelling off rather than falling.
Markets Today: Do the evolution
Friday saw quite a shocking miss on US non-farm payrolls.
Markets Today: Service with a smile
It’s been a strong 24 hours for data releases.
Markets Today: Markets fizzle on false hope
Markets in the US and Asia buoyed by news that a deal between the US and China was close.
Markets Today: Simply the best
Trump’s walkout of the meeting with Kim Jong Un dominated had little interest to the markets.
Markets Today: Powell’s adjustments, May’s delay
A boost for the pound and mixed data from the US.
Markets Today: Average inflation & deal hopes
The markets were buoyed at the end of last week by hopes that some sort of trade deal with China was closer.
Markets Today: Fed minutes, UK defections & Aussie jobs
Have the Fed clarified its position after an apparent U-turn at their last meeting?
Markets Today: Dirty laundry
The US dollar is now sitting at its strongest level of 2019 in DXY terms.
Markets Today: Lowe sends Aussie lower
Words from the RBA’s Governor Lowe send the Aussie dollar spiralling downward yesterday.
Markets Today: Goldilocks is on her own
On the face of it, the US looks like it's enjoying a Goldilocks economy right now: there’s growth, employment is strong and inflation is low.
Market’s Today: Writing’s on the wall
Negativity on the state of the global economy has managed to overshadow positive earning results from US companies.
Markets Today: IMF’s glass half empty, Xi warning on social stability
On a quiet day on the markets (due to Martin Luther King Day in the US) the main focus has been, again on Brexit.
Markets Today: A longer Brexit (maybe), a boost for US banks & a bad night for the AUD
Theresa May has won the confidence vote in her government, so she can battle on with Brexit.
Markets Today: Brexit vote defeat, confidence vote & a Sterling hit
Theresa May’s government faced a massive defeat in Parliament with a 230 vote loss on their Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Markets Today: Shutdown, slowdown and voted down
The US government shutdown is now in its 25th day but the direction of the global economy is a bigger concern.
Markets Today: Optimism despite shutdowns, recession prospects & a meaningless vote
The shutdown impacting parts of the US government remains, the passing of Theresa May’s meaningful vote on Brexit seems unlikely and negative data from Europe has some wondering whether the region is already in recession.
Markets Today: Powell sitting, waiting, wishing
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s comments at the Economic Club in Washington supports risk sentiment.
Markets Today: FOMC Minutes, Fed speak feeds the mood
FOMC Minutes just released show Fed more dovish than post Dec-18-19 meeting statement/presser suggested
Markets Today: Talks with China “going very well”
US-China trade talks extended into a 3rd day.
Markets Today: The dollar is dying
Positive sentiment in the US on Friday and in the APAC session yesterday has carried through into overnight markets notwithstanding a downside surprise in the US non-manufacturing ISM report.
Markets Today: Good things come in threes
It was far from a quiet Christmas period, with volatility driven by data, trade concerns, a government shutdown and a very different attitude coming from the US Fed.
The AUD in December 2018
December witnessed the widest AUD/USD monthly range of the year (3.77 cents).
Markets Today: 2018 in Review
2018 has been a year of surprises. In the final podcast for the year, the team discuss the year that was and what to expect in 2019.
Markets Today: Fed not dovish enough?
Does the message from the US Fed set the right tone given sensitivities in the markets right now?
Markets Today: Driving down for Christmas?
US shares were pummelled on Friday as fears of a global slowdown widen.
Markets Today: These foolish things
US equities have had a shot in the arm following a Wall Street Journal report that China might open up access to their domestic markets for foreign companies.
The Aussie dollar – finding its feet in 2019
Our outlook for the Australian dollar looks at the global forces that shape the currency’s fate.
Markets Today: Weak jobs data, trade tensions & a Brexit to nowhere
The markets reacted sharply to weaker than expected payrolls data from the United States.
Markets Today: China’s Q&A, May’s legal advice & Australia’s GDP
Chinese authorities issued a Q&A which seems to have buoyed markets a little.
Markets Today: Flatter curves, the Tariff Man & a government in contempt
Risk sentiment has turned sour all of a sudden, with flattening yield curves preying heavily on the concerns of investors.
Markets Today: Burning down the house
US stocks take a big hit. The Aussie and New Zealand dollars seem to have come off the worst out of the major currencies with a rise in uncertainty, whereas Sterling has risen.
Markets Today: Fed turns dovish in an uncertain world
The US dollar and Treasury yields fell on Friday as Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said they were close to being neutral on interest rates.
Markets Today: May’s first hurdle. Step two is survival.
Uncertainty on whether the UK Cabinet would pass May’s Brexit deal played heavily on the pound overnight but it rebounded when the deal was approved.
Markets Today: The cutter
Is the bear market in oil about to turn?
Markets Today: (Dominic and the) hand jive
As Americans head out to the polls the markets are left guessing whether it’ll be a good or bad result for President Trump.
Markets Today: Fireworks
Sanctions are stepped up against Iran today. Plus, the latest on Brexit.
US mid-terms: why should we care?
What will the US mid-term election results mean for the AUD?
Markets Today: Get back
It’s a big week for global markets as well as the AUD.
Markets Today: China boosts business. May’s last stand?
The Chinese stock market performed well on the back of yesterday’s proposals from the government and the PBoC. And there’s increasing questions over whether the UK PM should stand-down.
Markets Today: State of independence
AUD (and NZD) this week look set to remain in the hands of broader USD and Emerging Market (EM) moves.
Markets Today: bad mood rising
US shares are racing ahead again on earnings results and further evidence of a strong US economy.
Markets Today: Running to the Brexit cliff
The pound has fallen sharply as the currency markets opened on the news that a Brexit deal this week is looking very unlikely.
Markets Today: Is it all downhill from here?
Overnight saw a big sell-off of US and European stocks.
Markets Today: Rainy days and Mondays
Strong US payrolls data on Friday saw bond yields push higher.
Markets Today: Aussie down and staying there
The rising US dollar is playing havoc on emerging market currencies and the Aussie has got tied up in the bad news.
Markets Today: Indonesia and Italy spoil the party
Italy’s travails continue and heightening oil prices are causing problems for Indonesia.
Markets Today: Waiting for the FOMC, NAFTA & Brexit
The markets are quiet ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, there seems to be a further waiting game on Brexit and NAFTA.
Markets Today: May throws back the gauntlet; China ups sticks
The pound took a hit on Friday. Ray Attrill discusses whether we can expect it to sink further this week, and what that could mean for the Aussie dollar, which also fell slightly at the end of last week.
Australian Markets Weekly – AUD still in tariff and EM cross hairs
In this Weekly, we set out our latest thoughts on the Australian dollar.
Markets Today: Cold shoulder
The US President is keeping everyone guessing on further tariffs on Chinese imports.
Markets Today: Turkish delight
Quite a few moving points to what has been a reasonably volatile night in markets.
Markets Today: You ain’t seen nothing yet
President Trump has threatened to sharply escalate the US trade war with China.
Markets Today: Waiting in vain
There’s a risk-off mood in the markets this morning.
Markets Today: Baby you can drive my car
Equities and currencies in emerging markets took a tumble overnight, hurting the Aussie and Kiwi dollars in the process.
Markets Today: Stars
US equities hit record highs on Friday.
Markets Today: Malcolm moves on. The market impact.
Ray discusses the possible scenarios that could play out in Australian politics today and what the market impact will be – it’s already hit the Aussie dollar quite markedly.
Markets Today: Pipes of peace
Speculation the US and China will strike a deal on trade around November has given markets some reason for optimism.
Markets Today: The widening US v rest of the world divide
The US dollar and equities are on the rise and EM currencies teetering on the edge of a bearish market.
Australian Markets Weekly – NZD & AUD at the whim of Trump
The weekly highlights the outlook for the NZD and AUD.
Markets Today: Breakdown
The crisis in Turkey’s currency is having ramifications far afield.
Markets Today: Cold Turkey
The Russian Rouble and the Turkish Lira hit hard over US sanctions.
Markets Today: What’s happening with the Yuan?
The Renminbi rose today and, demonstrating its dependency, the Australian dollar followed suit.
Markets Today: the thrill is gone
The Yuan has served to undermine all of the gains in the AUD generated by yesterday’s good employment report.
Markets Today: May caves in, Trump takes sides and China woos Europe
Trump in Helsinki and the EU in Beijing didn’t really move markets but the dissent in the UK has weakened the pound.
Markets Today: Know your enemy
China’s M2 money supply grew less than expected on Friday.
Markets Today: Trump laps up history
Whilst Trump is overseas, the stock market has rebounded from yesterday’s falls, whilst Brent Crude continues to fall.
AUD/USD in the 0.70-75 bucket
AUD/USD is now expected to be largely contained within a 0.70-0.75 trading range.
Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain
The next battle for Theresa May is in Brussels – will the EU accept her proposal, at least as a starting point? Plus, US ‘poised’ to release $200bn China tariff list, puncturing risk-positive offshore sentiment.
The AUD in June & FY 17-18
In June, the AUD/USD saw a new year-to-date low – a level last seen in May 2017 | Over the fiscal year the AUD/US traded between a high of 0.8136 and a low of 0.7311.
Markets Today: May presents cake as US wage growth crumbles
Theresa May has presented her Brexit strategy with the full support of her cabinet, apparently.
Markets Today: China’s currency conundrum; trade tariff timing
On an otherwise quiet day there was some volatility in the Yuan on reports that China is happy with a weakening currency.
Markets today: Pump up the volume and see off Seehofer
Not the quietest start to the week.
Markets Today: back to life
Oil prices pushed higher.
Markets Today: Anything you can do
Trade talks between the US and China took a turn for the worse at the end of last week, with the Trump administration issuing a list of $50 billion worth of products that would be hit with a 25 percent tariff.
Markets Today: Fed Up
The US federal Reserve lifted interest rates this morning, as expected.
Markets Today: Trump’s one – on – Un just hours away
Can we expect any market reaction to the Singapore Summit? Also, the response to the spat between Trump and Trudeau, the disappointing manufacturing data from the UK and the start of a busy week for central banks and Brexit talks.
Markets Today: G7; Brexit; North Korea – Deal or No Deal?
Leaders going into G7 seem to be holding their positions firm on trade tariffs and the Iran Nuclear Deal. So much so, it’s unlikely the markets will pay too much attention.
Markets Today: Strong enough
After the excitement of Parmageddon last week, followed by the sudden enforcement of steel and aluminium tariffs on Trump’s supposed allies, the markets can at last look forward to a more traditional week where data and central bank policy drives the agenda.
Markets Today: Did Parmageddon go too far? Inflation next to watch for
The markets have retreated somewhat from yesterday’s tumultuous response to uncertainty over who will govern Italy, and their stance on the Euro and EU membership.
Markets Today: Conte out, oil down, talks on
The breaking news this morning is that Italy’s premier designate Guiseppe Conte has stepped aside, unwilling to form a government.
Markets Today: Truce
Steven Mnuchin says the trade war with China is on-hold, for now, after the agreement that will see China supposedly buying more from the US, but not the reported extra $200 billion worth.
Markets Today: European bonds hit by Italian populism
In Italy, the populist parties aiming for a coalition Italian government are said to be demanding a €250bn debt write down by the ECB.
Markets Today: Trump blows hot and cold on tariffs
Trump seems to be offering a lifeline to Chinese telecoms company ZTE, whilst threatening car manufacturers with a 20 percent import tariff.
Markets Today: Iran makes oil bumpy, weaker CPI pushes yields lower – Preview
It’s been a bumpy day for oil following Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran Deal. But it’s today’s weaker than expected US CPI data that has had the most influence, driving down Treasury yields and giving a boost to share prices.
Markets Today: Last night’s Budget and Trump’s hard exit from Iran deal
The US to reinstate tough economic sanctions against Iran, with the threat of secondary sanctions against those who continue to support the regime. Plus last night’s Budget, Theresa May’s split cabinet and the risk of another election in Italy.
Markets Today: Soaring dollar as US leaves the pack behind
Suggestions the move reflects the US economy gaining momentum, whilst other economies are failing to keep pace.
Markets Today: Markets not drawn on peace promise, yet
Why such little reaction to Friday’s historic peace promise? NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests why it failed to move the markets, and looks to this week’s major influences.
Markets Today: Cautious Man
The Euro and European bond yields took a blow today as the European Central Bank failed to commit to a timetable for the ending of quantitative easing.
Markets Today: 10 year Treasuries pass the 3% mark
US 10-year treasury yields have moved passed 3 percent, boosting the US dollar and sending the Aussie dollar careering downwards.
Markets Today: High Hopes
Will the Syria missile strikes hit the markets today. @NAB’s Ray Attrill says not on today’s edition of #TheMorningCall podcast
Markets Today: Big Love
US equities and commodity currencies boosted by President Xi’s calming talk overnight – but @NAB’s Ray Attrill warns we can continue to expect periodic risk off sentiment.
Markets Today: Every Day is a Winding Road
US shares back up as trade war fears ease again, even though China threatens currency devaluation as a tool against tariffs. @NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil Dobbie on today’s Morning Call podcast.
Markets Today: Beast of Burden
On #TheMorningCall from @NAB, the US dollar recovers a little and stocks rise as investors hope tariff talk is more rhetoric than action. Plus, payroll figures tonight.
Markets Today: Wrecking Ball
Markets took a hit on Friday - what caused it and will it continue today? Phil Dobbie asks NAB's Ray Attrill if its trade wars, spending, staff changes or old fashioned over-valuation?
Markets Today: 22 March 2018
It will be no surprise that the Fed has lifted interest rates this morning. Perhaps the tone was more hawkish than expected in Jay Powell’s first meeting as Fed chair.
Markets Today: Slip Slidin’ Away
USD slightly extends Thursday’s gains, AUD makes new YTD low of 0.7710, -1.1% on the day.
AUD/EUR Forecast
AUD/EUR continues to approach its two-year lows.
AUD/GBP Forecast
NAB’s positive view of GBP and forecast decline in AUD/GBP is in the immediate term.
Markets Today: On the Wings of a Dove
On #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we could be a favoured state that avoids steel tariffs.
Markets Today: Bigmouth strikes again
Australian GDP, Lowe speaks as does Fed’s Brainard. ADP and Bank of Canada tonight.
Markets Today: 1 March 2018
A Brexit breakdown pummels the pound – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we can expect the pound to fall further as the UK & EU draw lines in the sand.
Markets Today: 26 February 2018
Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what impact the news could have on the markets this week, after a rally on equities at the end of last week.
Markets Today: Meddle
US stocks retreat on Russia meddling, steel/aluminium tariff reports, but still make it ‘6 from 6’ up days.
Markets Today: Love Resurrection
The US dollar is on the slide again. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill the volatility remains ahead of US CPI figures tonight.
Markets Today: Devil inside
The jump in US annual average hourly earnings in January, to 2.9% from an upwards revised 2.7% in December, stole the limelight on Friday albeit there were a number of extenuating circumstances suggesting the number shouldn’t be taken completely at face value.
Markets Today: 31 January 2018
US stocks are weaker for a second day running, the S&P down a little 1% heading into the close, and the VIX is up to 15 from 11 at the end of last week.
Markets Today: Everything is Awesome
A full Senate vote to ratify the deal struck a few hours ago to re-open the US government is scheduled for 4:30pm Washington time (8:30am AEDT).
Markets Today: Closedown
The US Senate on Friday failed to muster the 60 votes necessary to pass a stop-gap funding measure that would have averted the partial government shutdown that instead went into effect at one minute past midnight on Friday.
Markets Today: Hold On
The Bank of Canada delivered on an almost universal expectation for a 25-point rate hike last night.
Markets Today: You can’t keep a good man down
Mixed performance from FX, with EUR/USD recovering from earlier falls but commodity currencies taking a minor hit from a mini-USD revival and easing in commodity prices.
Markets Today: Zombie
Zombie was one of the Cranberries’ biggest hits and though written about what O’Riordan described as the seemingly interminable fight for Irish independence, it’s a fitting description of the US dollar, which more and more resembles a dead man walking.
Markets Today: Where Is The Love?
Friday was a case of another day, another US dollar slide (plus new record closing highs for both the S&P500 and NASDAQ, but that almost goes without saying these days).
Markets Today: How Big How Blue How Beautiful
Before I went to bed last night, the working title for today’s edition was Queen’s ‘Another one Bites The Dust’.
Markets Today: All I Want(ed) For Christmas
Stocks, the US dollar and Treasury yields all rose in afternoon NY trade Friday, seemingly in anticipation of Congressional tax writers announcing a reconciled tax plan capable of being voted on by both Houses this week.
Markets Today: The Waiting
Tom Petty described The Waiting as a song about waiting for your dreams and not knowing if they will come true.
Markets Today: Russian Roulette
My colleague and Markets Today co-conspirator Tapas Strickland has to date had a monopoly on Rhianna songs, but since he’s just arrived at NAB in London to spend time gaining international experience, I figure the Barbadian songstress catalogue is now fair game for use by the rest of us (not that there are many of her songs left to choose from).
Markets Today: Who Are You?
A relatively quiet start to the week following a relatively quiet holiday-impacted end to the last one.
Markets Today: Risky Business
Tangerine Dream, the German electronic music group, provided the soundtrack for Risky Business, the 1983 Romantic Comedy starring Tom Cruise and Rebecca de Mornay. The group have produced over 100 albums since forming in 1967.
Markets Today: Get Back Up
A rather uninspired song title (from a band whose name might not make it through the filters) from your somewhat sleep-deprived scribe (Lorde concert at the Opera House on a school-night, and at my age).
Markets Today: Shot down in flames (and R.I.P)
Two song titles in deference to the untimely death of AC/DC founding member Malcom Young at the weekend at just 64.
Markets Today: Talk of the Town
Frankfurt is the town and the great and the good of the global central banking fraternity will be the doing the talking later today at an ECB sponsored conference on central bank communication.
Markets Today: Bits and Pieces
A somewhat bitty, non-descript market offshore on Friday with asset markets not all marching to the same tune.
Markets Today: Jive Talkin’
Jive Talking: “To speak in an exaggerated, teasing, or misleading way”. I can’t believe we haven’t used this Bee Gees classic once in the year that has almost passed since the result of a certain election.
Markets Today: Barcelona
Two factors drove much of Friday’s offshore market activity. One was a Bloomberg source report suggesting that President Trump was inclined to nominate Jerome (‘Jay’) Powell to be the new Fed chair.
Markets Today: Taylor?
US bond yields ended the NY session on the day’s highs.
Markets Today: Milk it
Milk It is from Nirvana’s third album ‘In Utero’ and starts with the line ‘I am my own parasite, I don't need a host to live’. It references Kurt Cobain’s frustration with fame and drug addiction.
Markets Today: Six Degrees of Separation
It's now six from seven in terms of core US CPI undershooting expectations (six months at 0.1% including Friday’s September print and just one at the 0.2% consensus estimate that has prevailed for each of these seven months).
Markets Today: Beautiful Noise
Neil Diamonds’ Beautiful Noise was the working title for today’s missive following the latest US payrolls s report on Friday.
Markets Today: Waiting
The challenge meted out by some of my colleagues yesterday (many of whom are probably still in bed) was to incorporate as many songs from the now late great Tom Petty into this daily missive.
Markets Today: Dear Prudence
Fed chair Janet Yellen spoke last night and opined that it would be ‘Imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation hits 2%’
Markets Today: Hung Up
Hung parliaments on current voting tallies in general elections in New Zealand on Saturday and Germany on Sunday have taken bites out of the NZD and EUR at Monday’s market re-open.
Markets Today: Rocket Man
US President Trump’s 40 minute address to the UN, in which he described N. Korea leader Kim Jong UN as “Rocket man on a suicide mission for himself and his regime” has given us a (predictable) song title but frankly not much else.
Markets Today: Senses Working Overtime
GBP and CAD pull back on latest BoC and BoE utterances, helping USD move ahead again aided too by modestly higher US Treasury yields (10s +2bps to 2.23%). This pulls AUD comfortably back below 0.80. It has already traded - intra-day - through last week’s 0.7956 low.
Markets Today: Oranges and Lemons
The ancient English nursery rhyme was used allegorically in George Orwell’s 1984 to foreshadow the death of true knowledge (and so the advent of fake news, some 50 years before the Simpsons in 2001 foretold of Donald Trump’s ascendency to the US Presidency).
Markets Today: Play It Safe
The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc top the FX leader board while the AUD is close to the bottom at 0.7884.
Markets Today: The Price You Pay
The NASDAQ rose by an impressive 0.64. In commodities USD slippage helped gold gain $4 to $1287.7 (up $20 on the week).
Markets Today: It’s oh so quiet
It’s been a slow start to the week, not just because of yesterday’s NSW bank holiday (it’s not exactly the centre of the universe is it, much as some of us might like to believe otherwise?).
Markets Today: Fed Up
DJ Khaled didn’t have the folks in Washington’s Eccles Building in mind when he composed ‘Fed Up’ in 2009, but December 2017 Fed rate hike pricing pushed up from around 40% to 50% on Friday.
Markets Today: It Takes (more than) Two
The British Pound has been knocked off its recent lofty perch.
Markets Today: Burning down the (White) house
In G10 FX, AUD and SEK were the only two currencies to buck the trend of a falling US dollar.
Markets Today: Stay
Markets have largely paused for breath overnight, with US Treasury yields flat-lining and the US dollar ever so slightly firmer.
Markets Today: Long way down
For an avowed AUD bear, Friday was about as depressing a day as it has been all year.
Markets Today: On the Wings of a Dove (really?)
The Canadian dollar is the standout winner in FX markets after the Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% to 0.75% as widely expected but didn’t deliver the ‘dovish hike’ some were expecting.
Markets Today: Love Plus One
In German chancellor Angela Merkel’s words, the G20 accord issued on Saturday night didn’t even attempt to paper over the differences between the United States and the other 19 G20 members.
Markets Today: It Only Takes A Minute
The AUD is a little softer this morning, thanks largely to comments from RBA Board member Ian Harper in a Dow Jones interview published around 7pm last night.
Markets Today: Where Is The Love?
The narrow DXY US dollar index ended Q2 recording its biggest quarterly loss since Q3 2010.
Markets Today: Blame Canada
The late great Robin Williams sang this theme song to the 1999 South Park movie at the Academy Awards, penned by Matt Stone and Trey Parker, in which Sheila blames Canada for the kids’ bad language (and more besides) after watching the expletive-ridden Canadian movie Terrence and Phillip: (expletive deleted) of Fire.
Markets Today: Quiet Houses
Some very refined harmonies from Seattle indie folk band Fleet Foxes to start the week.
Markets Today: Mayday
US bond markets have been treading water in front of the two day FOMC meeting that commences tonight, 10s stuck around 2.2%, while the Australian dollar has been spent most of its time meandering within a narrow 0.7420-0.7445 range.
Markets Today: Life’s a gas
The T.Rex 1971 classic is doubtless before most readers’ time but not this one unfortunately, growing up with the first (and still the best) U.K. glam-rockers.
Markets Today: I can’t stand up for falling down
Almost certainly neither Sam and Dave nor Elvis Costello had inflation or inflation expectations in mind when the recorded this track, though for the record US CPI was running a little shy of3% when Sam and Dave first recorded the song in 1967, and over 20% in the UK when Elvis Costello covered it in 1980.
Markets Today: When Doves Cry
Not a big night for markets.
Markets Today: “Let’s Love France”
There wasn’t a whole lot of market movement on Friday in the wake of the April US employment report showing a 211k rise in non-farm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.5%.
Markets Today: The Price You Pay
News of North Korea conducting another (apparently failed) ballistic missile test crossed the wires about 30 minutes prior to the NY close.
Markets Today: French Kissin’
The final results of the first round of voting in the French presidential election aren't yet confirmed.
Markets Today: 15 Minutes of Fame
A fair bit of news to digest overnight, and some market price action across currencies, bonds and equities to accompany it.
Markets Today: Talk is cheap
Plenty of news, both economic and geopolitical, since we broke for Easter, the net market impact of which has frankly been quite modest.
Markets Today: Rebel Without a Pause
US employment data fell below expectations on Friday, hitting the markets harder than the escalating problems in Syria.
Markets Today: Hello Friday
We haven’t seen a whole lot of market price action overnight, with the US dollar marginally higher, as are US bonds yields but by less than one basis point.
Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.
R.I.P. Chuck Berry. And R.I.P. anti-protectionism, after the weekend G20 meeting communique omitted reference to avoiding protectionism, reflecting the new reality of the USA’s position
Markets Today: Three Times a Lady
Janet and Co. has spoken and like the Commodores before them, re-affirmed that three is the magic number.
Markets Today: Workin’ 9 to 5
298,000 more of them were doing just that last month according to ADP.
Markets Today: All Cried Out
Fed chair Janet Yellen sang from the same script as her FOMC colleagues before her on Friday and confirmed that ‘fairly soon’ really does means March. Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer later chimed in with “If there has been a conscious effort” to boost expectations of a rate rise, “I’m about to join it”.
Markets Today: Forward March
Something of a return to the good old days in the last 24 hours, when an infolding economic calendar and rhetoric from Fed officials counted for more than what the leader of the free world had to say.
Markets Today: Home on the range
Another quiet end to a quiet week but with the U.S. dollar grinding out small gains despite further slippage in US bond yields (10s -6bps) and a fairly flat U.S. stock market (albeit new record closing highs for the S&P and the Dow).
Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing
Just over a week ago, President Trump promised a ‘phenomenal’ tax announcement in 2-3 weeks, so as the clock ticks down to some form of announcement, market inertia is set to reign.
Markets Today: Crawling back to you
The message in American band Daughtry’s 2011 song later covered (with aplomb) by the Arctic Monkeys is, according to the writer, “Your significant other is in the right and just like she said it would happen, you come crawling back”
Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)
A bit of early 19th century opera to kick off the week (don’t fret, I’m sure we’ll be back in rock & roll mode for the rest of the week).
Markets Today: Little Red Rooster
A glance at Friday’s New York opening and closing levels for major FX rates tells us that the latest flurry of US data, including a slightly softer than expected Q4 GDP print and downside miss on headline durable goods orders, came and went without much fanfare. US yields dropped on the 1.9% headline GDP print while currencies and stocks did very little.
Markets Today: Jungle
Sydney music producer Flume claimed the top spot in Triple Js 2016 Hottest 100 yesterday, but many will consider the moral victor to have been Melbournian busker Tash Sultana for her brilliant ‘Jungle’.
Markets Today: Twice if you’re lucky
Never underestimate the ability of markets to discount the same news twice. Or in the case of the US dollar, the ability to ignore a relevant piece of news one day only to react with alarm to it a day or two later.
Markets Today: A hard rain’s a-gonna fall
Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 44th President of the United States (45th if you count Grover Cleveland as both the 22nd and 24th President) will capture the world’s attention on Friday.
Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)
US small business owners tend to be Republican, and those who are member of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) overwhelmingly so. Thus optimism among NFIB members surged to its highest level since 2004 in December and with the monthly increase, from 98.4 to 105.8, the largest since 1980.
Markets Today: Don’t Let Me Down
China’s capture of a US Navy Drone showed that the US dollar is not infallible.
Markets Today: Ding dong merrily on high
Shock and awe is how one London based analyst described the Saudi’s decision to cut oil production even further at the weekend.
Australian Markets Weekly – 5 December 2016
NAB economists continue to monitor recent disappointing momentum in indicators of the NSW economy, employment and – until Friday – also in retail sales.
Markets Today: Poor Wages
An early song from English progressive rock band Barclay James Harvest. No, it’s not on my playlist either.
Markets Today: Vienna
Oil prices shot up when OPEC announced that a deal had been reached in Vienna, giving special dispensation to Iran, but overall cuts across the group.
Markets Today: Blurred Lines
Oil remains a keen focus with prices back up around $1 a barrel.
Markets Today: Higher Ground
Oil prices, of course, have a massive bearing on the rate of inflation throughout the world. That's why the outcome of OPEC talks this week are crucial.
Markets Today: Big Jet Plane
The song by Angus and Julia Stone (my absolute favourite Sydney band) made number 1 on Triple J’s Hottest 100 songs of 2010 and was responsible for propelling them on to the international stage. Big jet planes were also responsible for the 4.8% jump in US October durable goods orders reported last night and which […]
Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same
A key question this week, for the AUD at least, is whether local exporters will continue to stand aside expectant of still better levels to initiate longer dated hedges and/or whether local real money will now look to lift hedge ratios.
Markets Today: Back to reality
Following the severe earthquake this morning in South Island NZ, the Wellington CBD is out of action including the BNZ Harbour Quays building. BNZ Markets will be operating from Auckland / Christchurch and DR sites.
Markets Today: Panic in Detroit
Modest dollar strength and higher Treasury yields was the initial response to the US payrolls data but proved fleeting.
Markets Today: Down in Mexico
US Equities are off, the VIX is up, the US dollar is lower, US Treasury yields are lower and the Mexican Peso/Japanese Yen cross (-2.5%) is still proving to the be the FX market’s weapon of choice when it comes to reflecting sentiment regarding the prospect of Donald Trump.
Markets Today: The Fear
In the hour after it was announced that Hillary Clinton’s e-mails were the subject of a new FBI probe, USD/JPY dropped from Y105.50 to Y104.50, the S&P dropped 20 points or 1% with the VIX spiking by 19% and 10-year Treasuries dropped 2bps from 1.85% to 1.83%.
Markets Today: Fresh Fruit
Seven years on from their 1974 classic ‘Whiter Shade of Pale’, Procol Harem’s light-hearted ode to the health benefits of fruit is set for a test today. Healthy on the body fruit may be, but possibly not on the hip pocket in Q3 according to our economists.
Markets Today: 80
Auction clearance rates in Australia this weekend hit 80% - not just in Sydney and Melbourne but nationally and for the first time since early 2015.
Markets Today: O Canada!
The revelation by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz following an as-expected unchanged monetary policy decision that the Bank ‘had actively discussed the possibility’ of further monetary policy easing at Wednesday’s meeting.
Markets Today: Under (high) pressure
In contrast Janet Yellen’s speech in Boston did - primarily in the form of higher Treasury yields at the longer end of the curve and with that late-day support for U.S. dollar. NY Fed President Bill Dudley said he expects a rate rise this year on current forecasts.
Markets Today: Crash and Burn
Friday night’s US payrolls report underwhelmed for the second month running, showing a 151k employment gain.
Markets Today: Beautiful Lies
Last night’s US non-manufacturing ISM report was certainly something to behold, with not only the headline read of 57.1 more than reversing the August drip.
Markets Today: Psycho Killer
If Janet Yellen has been in the recording studio at the time, David Byrne might well have been directing his lyrics in her direction.
Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World
Four hours before an estimate 100 million Americans tune in to watch the two wannabe leaders of the free world go head to head, and a Bloomberg poll published around 7pm Australian Eastern Time last night shows Clinton and Trump tied on 46%.
Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?
Not a huge amount to say about Friday’s offshore markets (unlike Saturday night’s AFL preliminary final), characterised by a give-back of some of the post-FOMC stock market euphoria, fractionally lower US bonds yields and a slightly stronger dollar.
Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics
August U.S. CPI data turned out to be the driver of much of Friday night’s market price action. The 0.3% rise in the core CPI series pushed annual growth up to 2.3% from 2.2% - matching its post-recession cycle high and versus the 2.2% expected.
Markets Today: From zero to hero
During the US dollar’s recent revival associated with deteriorating global risk sentiment and steepening yield curves, the commodity currencies – in particular the AUD and NZD – have been the hardest hit.
Markets Today: Spinning Around
If anyone harboured thoughts that global markets weren’t completely in the thrall of the ‘could they, would they?’ debate about the Fed’s 2016 intentions, they were disabused of the notion from the US get-go on Friday.
Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent
In offshore markets depleted by the absence of the United States off for Labor Day, latest UK economic data and gyrations in the oil price captured most of the overnight headlines.
Markets Today: None the wiser
The August US employment report turned out to be something of a Goldilocks affair.
Markets Today: Make a new plan, Stan…
As we went home yesterday evening, there was pretty keen anticipation of a forthcoming Bloomberg TV interview with Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer.
Markets Today: September Song
Janet Yellen’s Friday morning appearance at Jackson Hole proved not to be the damp squib that many were expecting.
Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson
Only on line one and I already feel like I’m making this up, such is the state of market torpor in front of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and as Sothern England basks in 30 degree summer sunshine – and uncharacteristically not for the first time this year.
Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing
Friday looks to have shown FX traders to be the smartest guys in the room. Traditionally referred to as the ‘last market to clear’ (and so giving FX analysts such as this scribe a career) the dollar had put on a strong showing during the APAC session.
Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back
The previous Friday’s strong US payrolls report has become a somewhat hazy memory after a much softer than expected retail sales report on Friday that challenged prevailing confidence that the US consumer has entered Q3 in rude health.
Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?
In delivering only 25bps cut to the OCR and which was more than 100% discounted ahead of time and the RBNZ’s latest 90-day bill track only implying one more cut, the NZD has predictably bounced sharply. It up just over 1% as we go to press.
Markets Today: Working Man
There wasn’t much not to like about Friday’s July US payrolls report, the 255k rise in headline payrolls enhanced by 18k worth of upward revision to May and June and meaning that well over half a million more Americans are in work compared to just two months ago.
Markets Today: It’s not so bad, it’s not so bad
Dido’s chorus to Eminem’s brilliant ‘Stan’ sums up last night’s US data and which was just about the only talking point in offshore markets last night.
Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want
It was a toss-up this morning between the Rolling Stones classic and “You Can’t Hold a Good Man Down” by James and Bobby Purify (et al), both in reference (or deference) to the performance of the Aussie dollar in the aftermath of yesterday’s RBA rate cut.
Markets Today: Crying Shame
News of the (now failed) attempted military coup attempt in Turkey started filtering though about half an hour before the US stock market close, too late to have much impact on cash indices which closed fairly flat but early enough to see the S&P500 futures lose 0.4% after the NYSE close
Markets Today: Career Opportunities
he US non-farm payrolls headline rise of 287k comfortably exceeded expectations (180k) but wasn’t backed up by the subsidiary details in the report with the unemployment rate higher, small net downward revision to the prior two months payrolls and hourly earnings up just 0.1%.
Markets Today: Selling England by the pound
Genesis’ 1973 album laments the loss of English folk culture and increasing American influence. 43 years on, England can now have back as much of the former as it cares for, but has to hope it can look forward to even more of the latter.
Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E
Lows for the day on Friday in all things GBP and AUD and highs for the USD and US Treasury prices came early to mid-afternoon Australian time almost as soon as it became clear the UK had voted for Brexit.
Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now
Pink Floyd’s 1979 song featured on The Wall tells the story of a couple who have treated each other very badly yet are devastated at the prospect of their relationship ending. This seems somewhat appropriate with us now just 9 hours away from polling getting underway in the UK EU referendum.
Markets Today: Thursday
Markets being what they are, last Thursday’s tragic news of the slaying of UK MP Jo Cox, campaigning on behalf of the ‘remain’ side in front of Thursday’s EU referendum, elicited a strong positive response in all things Sterling, as well as supporting risk sentiment more broadly.
Markets Today: The Fear
Friday night, Sterling was hit hard soon after London had shut shop for the week, on the publication of an (internet) poll by ORB of over 2000 respondents for the UK Independent newspaper, showing a 55/45 split in favour of ‘Leave’.
Markets Today: Low
Rebel One being BTMFJ who were reported to be on the verge of rescinding their JGB Primary Dealership and Rebel Two being Commerzbank, reported to be considering storing cash in vaults rather than pay the ECB for the privilege of depositing excess cash with them.
Markets Today: Rebellion
We are now seeing signs in other parts of the world of rebellion by private sector banks aimed at circumventing the deleterious effects of negative central bank policy rates and government bond yields.
Markets Today: Life’s a gas
Be grateful for small mercies. It’s a good job this 1971 T.Rex classic popped into my head as I was alighting at Wynyard station this morning, or else you might have been subjected to the ultra-cringe-worthy 1968 Dolly Parton ditty, “I’ll oil well love you” (I kid you not).
Markets Today: Money’s (not) too tight to mention
The rising US dollar in Friday’s APAC session gathered fresh momentum from incoming US data.
Markets Today: China Matters
In a shock revelation, the Dallas Fed has published a note on its website saying that the impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades.
Markets Today: Smash & Grab
No, the title is not a summation of Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison’s first Budget handed down last night. Rather it looks to be the most apt description of market price action – in FX at least – apropos the smart overnight session reversal in the fortunes of the Japanese Yen and the Euro.
Markets Today: Debbie Downer
The 2004 Saturday Night Live fictional character, recently brought back to life in song on Cortney Barnett's brilliant debut album, would have been in her element on Friday.
Markets Today: Down down (prices are down)
So it is that following yesterday’s CPI report, NAB altered its 3 May RBA call to now expect a 25bs reduction in the Cash Rate (to 1.75%).
Markets Today: Stay
The Eurostoxx 50 ended 0.75% down and the S&P 500 -0.18%.
Markets Today: No dice
Regardless of whether an agreement yesterday by major producers to freeze oil production would have had any meaningful impact on oil prices beyond the psychological boost it might have provided.
Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar
A fairly uneventful offshore session on Friday saw US stocks recover some of Thursday’s losses, bond yields pushing back higher while the US dollar was softer across the board.
Markets Today: Send in the Clowns
Sorry, I couldn’t resist the title seeing as how Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker are all about to jump up on stage together.
Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night
Local market’s finished up on Tuesday in a distinctly ‘risk-off’ frame of mind, and that sentiment has extended throughout the European and US sessions
Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy
There was nothing not to like about Friday’s US data deluge. Payrolls just beat expectations at 215k vs. 205k with trivial revisions.
Markets Today: Afterglow
Equities and non-US dollar currencies continue to bask in the afterglow of Janet Yellen’s Tuesday night speech.
Markets Today: Must try harder
Before the official start of the 4-day Easter break, there was a bit of good news about the US economy.
Markets Today: Friday (already) on my mind
Following a tumultuous Wednesday and Thursday, markets went out with something of a whimper on Friday.
Markets Today: Love you till Tuesday
Any excuse playing homage to David Bowie (originally unreleased promotional film shot in 1969, in case you wondered).
Markets Today: Take It Easy
We weren’t alone on Friday thinking that the risks heading into the US employment report were for a disappointing headline non-farm payrolls print
Markets Today: Free falling
Chicken Little would have been in his element today. The sky may not be falling, but plenty else is.
Markets Today: Weasel words
Plenty of official hand-wringing regarding downside risks to global growth and which was reflected in the communique issued on Saturday after the 2-day G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Shanghai.
Markets Today: You’ve lost that loving feeling
Risk markets have turned turtle overnight despite some reassuring words on monetary policy.
Markets Today: Shanghai Surprise?
The 1986 film flop starring Madonna and Sean Penn cost $17mn to make and grossed just $2.3mn at the US box office.
Markets Today: Pushmi-pullyu
If we had to try and summarise the best part of three hours of testimony before Congress by Fed chair Janet Yellen in one sentence, it would be something like “Janet fails to go full dove”.
Markets Today: Monkey Business
Welcome to and best wishes for the Year of the Monkey.
Markets Today: Dollar dumped on Dudley, data
There’s still two hours to go until the New York close, but foreign exchange markets are having their biggest night of the year so far.
Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?
Oil having been the main driver of most of the market price action of the past two weeks, it was Friday’s near 10% rebound that was the catalyst for much of Friday’s retracements.
Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)
Flipping through the Eagles song list on the way in, none of the many great Glenn Frey-penned tracks struck me as particularly applicable titles to describe overnight markets.
Markets Today: Groundhog day
In a redux of the previous Friday, slumping oil prices were the primary catalyst for the latest pressure on commodity and emerging market currencies and global risk assets, alongside safe-haven support for Treasuries.
Markets Today: Dollar days
Less than hard-core Bowie aficionados can be forgiven for not immediately humming this track, which features on the Blackstar album released two days before his untimely death.
Markets Today: This is not America
‘Under Pressure’ was a particularly apt title to yesterday’s daily from my colleague Rodrigo by way of homage to the late great David Bowie.
Markets Today: Riders on the storm
On another day, news of a near 300k rise in US payrolls, still quite benign earnings growth and a steady but near-full employment unemployment rate (5.0%), might have sent equities and the dollar to the moon and bond yield higher.
Markets Today: Back to Black
Heading into Wednesday’s New York close, the S&P 500 is showing a gain of about 1.2% on the day, which equates to a rise of just 0.2% year to date.
Market’s today: Freaky Friday
Friday was one of the four ‘triple witching’ occasions of 2015 (expiration of stock index futures, index options and individual share options) –sometimes known as freaky Friday.
Markets Today: Zirp Rip
Nine and a half years on from the last Fed rate hike and seven years on from when interest rates were first set at the effective zero lower bound (0-0.25%) the Fed has seen fit to sound the death knell for ZIRP, lifting the target rate for the fed funds rate to a range of 0.25-0.5%.
Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’
Unlike the rest of us who are now waiting to see what Janet Yellen delivers this time tomorrow, RBA Governor Governor Glenn Stevens has gone early, the AFR publishing its now traditional end-of-year interview with him overnight.
Markets Today: Not So Super Mario
The violent upwards reaction in all things euro in response to a set of ECB decisions that underwhelmed expectations.
Markets Today: On your marks…..
US markets were open on Friday, though more in body than spirit. The major indices were little changed.
Markets Today: Black Friday
In the 1975 Steely Dan classic, the song Black Friday refers to a 24 September 1869 ploy by a group of wealthy US investors to corner the gold market and drive the price higher, but who were subsequently foiled when the government got wind and released $4 million worth of gold onto the market.
Markets Today: It’s all relative
It’s 100 years ago today that Albert Einstein formally presented the results of his eight year study into gravity – the general theory of relativity. Good on you Albert.
Markets Today: Oil Drilled
Hat tip to one our London traders for plagiarising today’s title.
Markets Today: No Copper Bottom
It is a bit odd coming in to see hard commodity prices under the pump (including a $2 drop in iron ore prices, new cycle lows for copper and oil off another buck) but the AUD at the top of the G10 FX leader board.
Markets Today: Super Mario (briefly) strikes again
Welcome to Friday the thirteenth. Cautious is advised for anyone suffering from triskaidekaphobia.
Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom
Friday’s US payrolls report delivered across-the-board strength and markets responded to script, the dollar and bond yields both sharply higher but equity markets not sure whether to embrace the more positive US growth signals or fear the seemingly near-inevitably of December Fed ‘lift-off’.
Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?
Global concerns and the potential negative feedback loop to the US economy and inflation have been dialled down. At the same, concerns about the strength of the labour market have been somewhat dialled up, the Fed noting that “the pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady”.
Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off
Watching the tears streaming down the face of Pumas head coach Daniel Hourcade a couple of hours ago, ‘Don’t Cry For Me Argentine’ was the obvious title for today’s missive, but it’s already looking a little overused in the Twitter-sphere.
Markets Today: Friday on my mind
Though there isn’t too much to say about last night’s markets and after the local market yesterday was, within 15 minutes of the China data, already checking out the coming weekend’s weather forecast.
Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy
Friday was largely a lower beta replica of Thursday and where, recall, the higher US core CPI and further drop in US jobless claims were the key market drivers. Momentum carried though to Friday’s session, and wasn’t undermined by US industrial/manufacturing production data that was soft.
Markets Today: Core, Blimey
Much of Wednesday’s market price action in currencies, equities and bonds has been reversed. The exceptions here are the commodity currency trio of NZD, CAD and AUD which for the most part are continuing to resist the allure of a weaker US dollar.
Markets Today: No quarter
Led Zeppelin (1973) for the benefit of a generation younger than this scribe (i.e. most of you).
Markets Today: From hero to zero
In the five days through this Monday, the AUD had been the best performing major currency, rallying by just shy of 4% against the US dollar.
Markets Today: A veritable smorgasbord awaits
With the whole of North America on holiday (albeit US stock markets were open) it has been a predictably quiet night.
Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style
AUD was the best performing G10 currency on Friday, and GBP the worse, the latter initially suffering on some dismal UK trade figures and which contrast starkly with the Eurozone’s current account surplus status.
Markets Today: Fix fixation (Redux)
The rapid reversal in post-August 11 Emerging Market and commodity currency weakness continued with a vengeance overnight.
Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)
The IMF is hogging the news headlines overnight, though markets have long since given up seeing much information value in the now customary 6-monthly downward revisions to its global and country-specific growth forecasts.
Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça
At the start of a new quarter, markets are struggling for a clear frame of reference, not yet sure whether bad economic news is good news for risk if it keeps the Fed at bay for longer, or is bad news because it serves to amplify concerns about the overall health of the global economy.
Markets Today: Recession, what recession?
The US ADP employment report last night printed +200k, seemingly confirming that the US economy continues to create more than enough jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate trending down to – and through – the so-called NAIRU rate (below which further labour market strength risks accelerating inflation)
Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?
The RBNZ has just delivered a universally expected 25-point cut to the OCR (to 2.75%) and says both that some further easing seems likely and that further currency deprecation is appropriate. This takes a bite out of pre-RBNZ NZD strength.
Markets Today: (Fed) fright night
In the wake Friday’s US employment report that overall could be judged to be consistent with the FOMC’s stated desire to see ‘some further improvement in the labor market’, risk markets took fresh fright.
Markets Today: Not much the wiser
European and U.S markets on Friday failed to key off the 4.82% rise in the Shanghai Composite, in contrast to Thursday. The proximity to the weekend Jackson Hole talk-fest looks to have been a factor keeping trading subdued.
Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”
Feeding off Monday’s 8.5%plunge in the Shanghai index and not much else, US stock markets have just closed with the S&P500 down 3.92%, the NASDAQ -3.81% and the Dow 3.56%. This masks much more extreme intraday volatility and which saw indices down more than 5% earlier in the US session.
Markets Today: Lightning bolts
Despite the best efforts of policy makers of late to downplay the significance of the first Fed rate rise relative to what happens after that, global markets remain in the midst of rate rise ructions.
Markets Today: All that, and now it’s China PMI time again
It has been a very eventful night, with US equities ending in a (deep) sea of red with the main indices all off over 2%, bond yields lower and the US dollar weaker across the board led by a rally of more than 1% in the Euro.
Markets Today: US data nonchalance
News wise, it has actually been quite an eventful night – tragically so in Thailand where a bomb blast in the centre of Bangkok during Monday’s evening rush hour is reported to have killed least 19 people and injured more than 120.
Markets Today: So last week
An uneventful end to the week on Friday but one where mild upside surprises in US industrial production and PPI helped deliver slightly higher US treasury yields out to 10 years and a marginally firmer dollar.
Markets Today: AUD starts defying latest China and US economic news
On Friday the US dollar failed to sustain the gains seen in the immediate aftermath of a US employment report best described as solid but not spectacular. This meant that the AUD finished the week up at 0.7420 having been as low as 0.7260 earlier in the week.
Markets Today: Walking on sunshine
Anglo-American pop band Katrina and the Waves - Walking on Sunshine - is 30 years old this year and the rights to the song were sold to Bertelsmann last night for a cool £10mn. The song still generates over £1mn. a year in royalties and endorsements.
Markets Today: ECI Friday
Most of Friday’s market price action emanated from the US Q2 Employment Cost Index, which at just +0.2% Q/Q (not annualised) was the lowest quarterly change since records began in 1996. The market was looking for +0.6% after +0.7% in Q1.
Markets Today: So So
Two words, both beginning with ‘so’ - solid and some - marked the FOMC statement out as very subtly more hawkish than its recent predecessors.
Markets Today: EM FX and AUD under the pump
Price wise, there was not a lot to note in Friday’s offshore markets, much of the day’s price action having occurred during the Asia-Pacific session (in FX at least).
Markets Today: Fed fears fading? Not in EM they’re not
In what has been an otherwise quiet night bereft on tier-1 economic news, the highlight has arguably been comment from St Louis Fed president James Bullard.
Markets Today: Relative calm restored
Friday was pretty quiet, in FX especially, after US CPI data failed to surprise, following a slow Asia session where activity was constrained by end-of-Ramadan holidays in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Gold was one of the biggest movers on the night, -$11.25 to a new 5-year low of $1134.14
Markets Today: Guilt by association
News wise, nothing bad has happened in or to Australia since we went home last night. Yet the AUD sits almost a full cent lower than where we left it.
Markets Today: Take it or leave it
According to the Guardian’s European correspondent, ‘extensive mental waterboarding’ is how one official described the rough ride being given to Greek PM Alex Tsipras by EU President Donald Tusk, German chancellor Merkel and French President Françoise Hollande.
Markets Today: Homework submitted, verdict awaited
“New Greek proposals received by Europgroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem, important for institutions to consider these in their assessment”. So tweets Dijsselbloem’s spokesman Michel Reins.
Markets Today: 61% say No
Ahead of Sunday’s referendum, that is now in process of delivering a decisive ‘No’ vote (to the terms and conditions under which Greece’s creditors would have extended the now-expired second bailout).
Markets Today: Circling the wagons
An overall disappointing US payrolls report, the ‘lowlight’ of which was an unexpectedly flat monthly read on average hourly earnings and which, together with a 0.1% downward revision to May, served to pull annual earnings growth down to 2.0% from 2.3%.
Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down
om Petty’s 1989 classic is appropriately recast as an “Ode to Alex” (Tsipras) after the Greek Prime Minister says he won’t back down on his referendum decision and that both he and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis confirmed they are campaigning for a ‘No’ vote in Sunday’s poll.
Markets Today: Four legs good, two legs bad
Not much happened Friday amid an absence of US data and with no significant developments - at least not in public view - ahead of Monday’s all-important EU Summit.
Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)
A fairly big slug of US economic data last night – admittedly not all of its top drawer – collectively added up to progress, on the real economy at least, towards the commencement of Fed tightening in coming months.
Markets Today: Greek nonchalance
Given the news that greeted the incoming Asia-Pacific market on Monday morning – that talks between Greece and her creditors in Brussels on Sunday had collapsed after just 45 minutes
Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon
After markets last week ended with a whimper rather than a bang, things have already heated up this morning with news on Sunday evening from Brussels that the latest talks aimed at bridging the differences between Greece and her creditors have collapsed.
Weekly Market Video Wrap: 12 June 2015
NAB Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill shares a market update for the week ending 12 June 2015
Markets Today: Wheeler dealer
To the evident delight of a section of the offshore hedge fund community, the RBNZ has just delivered on its recently instated easing bias, with a 25-point cut to the OCR to 3.25% and accompanied by a statement that further easing may be appropriate.
Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?
The first port of call for some Australian market participants this morning, returning to work after a three day weekend and having just caught up on Friday’s all-important US employment report, might be to their IT department to complain the prices on their screens are all wrong.
Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)
Incoming US economic data continues to rule the roost, last night’s batch encompassing the manufacturing ISM (strong), construction spending (very strong) personal income (strong), spending (weak) and the personal consumption deflators (weak).
Markets Today: Four more sleeps
US revised Q1 GDP came in at -0.7% so not quite as weak as the -0.9% expected (and note any upward revision from a review of seasonal adjustment methodology will not arrive until the Q2 estimate is first released in late July).
Markets Today: .007 proves Bond bearish (and USD bullish)
If US April core CPI had printed just .007% lower than the 0.256% it actually did, it would have been rounded down to 0.2% on the month not up to 0.3%, and arguably most of Friday's market price action wouldn't have occurred.
Markets Today: 7th Heaven
They might not exactly be skipping across Martin Place to work this morning, but there should be at least a small smile on the faces of RBA Board members that the Aussie dollar is trading back on a ‘7’ handle, following a night during which the US dollar had been bid across the board.
Markets Today: ASIC warns of trouble as NZ acts on tax cheats
Friday was a case of another day, another set of disappointing US economic release. The latest was a trifecta encompassing industrial production and the Empire Manufacturing survey.
Weekly Market Video Wrap: 15 May 2015
NAB Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill, shares a market update for the week ending 15 May 2015
Markets Today: Crying in their Cornflakes
Currencies are really where it's at this morning, with the US dollar smartly lower across the board and with losses led by the Aussie and Kiwi dollars.
Markets Today: GBP/NZD still on fire
Lacking fresh data or major events, it’s been a relatively subdued offshore trading session where with a couple of currency exceptions
Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week
The April US employment report proved to be a ‘Goldilocks’ affair for markets, not strong enough to detract from the view a first Fed tightening probably won’t happen at least before September
Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events
The US Treasury bond yield back-up continued on Friday, but this time not led by Europe, where the 10yr Bund yield was up just 0.7bp to 0.373% in a holiday thinned European May Day .
Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?
Eurozone markets have been cheered by reports that Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has been removed from the debt-deal negotiation table by his prime minister. Varoufakis’ hard-ball tactics have been a source of huge frustration for the Brussels group of international creditors.
Markets Today: When less is more
Almost without irony, we have to report that Friday’s US durable goods orders report was sufficiently weak to power US stock indices to new record highs, such was the ‘zero for longer’ interpretation of the data. Not the better than expected +4% headline read-out, but the core numbers for capital goods that exclude both (exceptionally strong) Boeing aircraft orders and also relatively strong auto orders.
Markets Today: Door to lower rates still wide open
Glenn Stevens spoke last night, and some of his words clearly resonated in FX market if less so in interest rate markets.
Australian Markets Weekly: AUD valuation metrics – what’s fair?
The RBA may be right to suggest that a lower AUD would promote more balanced growth, but its claim that the AUD remains overvalued rings hollow.
NAB Weekly Economics & Market Update
Financial markets weekly video update week ending 7th November 2014
FOMC Fireworks
Some quite explosive overnight price action and which has followed directly from the publication of the September FOMC meeting minutes. This has seen US equities jump by almost a percent.
A Tale of Two Numbers
The juxtaposition of another significant downside Eurozone data surprise (German IFO) and a major upside surprise for US New Home Sales has – unsurprisingly – pushed the EUR below 1.28 against the US dollar for the first time since 10 July 2013.