China Economic Update: October 2019
Taking flight: China is changing the global tourism market.
Key highlights
- There have been dramatic changes to the global tourism industry over the past two decades, as China has emerged as a major source of international travellers. A range of factors have contributed to this trend, including the growing wealth levels of Chinese residents, increasing transport linkages with international markets and an easing in international visa requirements for Chinese tourists. The long term growth potential for Chinese tourism is enormous, however the near term outlook is uncertain – given the income effects of the US-China trade war and possible policy responses.
- China is unlikely to be able to deploy its tourism industry as a major weapon in the US-China trade war, given the far smaller role Chinese tourists play in the US tourism sector than they do in many Asian economies.
- The long term potential for growth in Chinese international tourism is considerable. Estimates suggest that just under 9% of China’s population hold a passport – compared with around 40% of US citizens and 76% of the British population. Even a marginal increase in this share would allow a vast number of additional foreign tourists.
For further details, please see the NAB China Economic Update – October 2019
About the Author
Gerard has over a decade of experience as a professional economist, currently specialising in international economic research. He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting trends in emerging Asian economies, with a particular emphasis on China. He is also a member of the bank’s commodities research team, focusing on trends in iron ore and coal markets.
Gerard joined NAB in 2005, and previously focused on risk analysis across a range of industry sectors in Australia and abroad. He had particular expertise in areas such as Mining, Manufacturing, Healthcare and Retail, including the development of research into online retail sales. Prior to joining NAB, he was an economist with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, focusing on commodities and energy research.
He holds Bachelors degrees in Economics (with Honours) and Commerce from the Australian National University.
