Author

Gerard Burg

“He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting trends in emerging Asian economies”

Gerard has over a decade of experience as a professional economist, currently specialising in international economic research. He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting trends in emerging Asian economies, with a particular emphasis on China. He is also a member of the bank’s commodities research team, focusing on trends in iron ore and coal markets.

Gerard joined NAB in 2005, and previously focused on risk analysis across a range of industry sectors in Australia and abroad. He had particular expertise in areas such as Mining, Manufacturing, Healthcare and Retail, including the development of research into online retail sales. Prior to joining NAB, he was an economist with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, focusing on commodities and energy research.

He holds Bachelors degrees in Economics (with Honours) and Commerce from the Australian National University.

Recently Published Articles

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019

15 November 2019

Most of China’s indicators relatively weak year-on-year, however, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the start of the October has made this harder to gauge.

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

14 August 2019

US dollar NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecasted to increase by 2.1% yoy in Q3 2019, however underlying trends remain highly mixed. Higher export prices for LNG and iron ore (despite more recent spot price falls) are the key contributors, while both thermal and metallurgical coal are weaker, as are most base metals.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

24 June 2019

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019
China Economic Update: June 2017

China Economic Update: June 2017

5 July 2017

In May, international ratings agency Moody’s announced a downgrade for China’s sovereign credit rating, citing the country’s rising debt as a key factor in this decision.

China Economic Update: June 2017
China Economic Update: February 2017

China Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

From a political perspective, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP reflected US sentiment against globalisation, particularly in the mid-west rust belt.

China Economic Update: February 2017
China Economic Update: November 2016

China Economic Update: November 2016

29 November 2016

Since the middle of 2015, the seven-day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has been unusually stable – when compared with the extreme volatility in this market over the preceding five years.

China Economic Update: November 2016
China Economic Update: September 2016

China Economic Update: September 2016

16 September 2016

The rust belt region has continued to underperform in recent times – as service focussed provinces have driven a greater share of China’s growth. In 2015, the three rust belt provinces were among the four weakest growing regions.

China Economic Update: September 2016
China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016

China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016

12 August 2016

A rebound in real estate investment, new construction activity and industrial demand for related products – such as steel and cement – helped to underpin economic growth in the first half of 2016.

China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016
China Economic Update:  July 2016

China Economic Update: July 2016

15 July 2016

Despite decades of change, China’s State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are a specific segment of the economy that still requires substantial reform.

China Economic Update:  July 2016
China Economic Update: 20 June 2016

China Economic Update: 20 June 2016

20 June 2016

China’s longer term growth prospects are dependent on a range of economic reforms – critical to supporting the broad based productivity growth necessary to offset the negative demographic effects from the country’s declining working aged population.

China Economic Update: 20 June 2016
China Economic Update:  March 2016

China Economic Update: March 2016

15 March 2016

Casting a wider net over China’s total debt Last month, we highlighted China’s debt as one of the key concerns around its economy in 2016. Debt levels have risen sharply since the Global Financial Crisis, particularly outside the traditional banking system – where the scale of borrowings is frequently under-estimated. This month, we’re digging a […]

China Economic Update:  March 2016
China Economic Update – December 2015

China Economic Update – December 2015

16 December 2015

China’s online retail sales have rapidly expanded in recent years, as rising disposable incomes and growing internet penetration have supported the sector’s growth.

China Economic Update – December 2015
Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for

Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for

16 December 2015

The Indian market offers great potential for Australian exporters. Already the world’s third largest economy and growing by over 7% annually, India looks set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in the next 7 years.

Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for
China’s economy at a glance – October

China’s economy at a glance – October

20 October 2015

China’s latest national accounts data showed a slowing trend for China’s economy in the September quarter falling below the annual growth target for the first time this year. As a result, we are revising our forecasts for China’s growth.

China’s economy at a glance – October
China Economic Update: October 2015

China Economic Update: October 2015

15 October 2015

China moving the international standard – already planned but delayed – could show that the transition in China’s economic growth model has progressed further than previously understood.

China Economic Update: October 2015
China’s economy at a glance – September

China’s economy at a glance – September

14 September 2015

Short term disruptions add some uncertainty to extent of China’s economic slowdown. China’s 2014 GDP was revised lower in September – with growth down to 7.3% (compared with 7.4% previously) – due to weaker growth in services.

China’s economy at a glance – September
China Economic Update – August 2015

China Economic Update – August 2015

11 August 2015

China’s auto industry may be reaching its domestic limit, but is not yet ready to take on the world. The industry has experienced spectacular growth over the last decade – reflecting in part a broader evolution in China’s industrial sector over this period. At a national level, China has lost competitiveness to a range of emerging economies in Asia.

China Economic Update – August 2015
China Economic Update – 7 July 2015

China Economic Update – 7 July 2015

7 July 2015

Opening the capital account will further internationalise the Yuan and monetary policy. This report is the second of two looking into capital account liberalisation in China. This report looks at the international implications of this reform.

China Economic Update – 7 July 2015
China Economic Update – 15 June 2015

China Economic Update – 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

An open capital account will end financial repression but still a slow path to reform. This report is the first of two looking into capital account liberalisation in China. This report looks at the domestic implications of this reform.

China Economic Update – 15 June 2015
China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015

China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015

16 June 2015

China’s partial economic indicators broadly stable in May, but weak enough for the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). In June, PBoC cut their economic growth forecast for 2015 from 7.1% to 7.0%. For now, our economic forecasts remain unchanged.

China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015
Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015

2 June 2015

The changing composition of China’s growth model – towards services rather than heavy industry – means it is less commodity intensive than in the past.

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015
China Economic Update – 12 May 2015

China Economic Update – 12 May 2015

12 May 2015

Increasing productivity is one of China’s most critical challenges over the next few decades and education is a key factor in raising the average level of productivity.

China Economic Update – 12 May 2015
China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015

China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015

15 April 2015

China’s economy expanded by 7.0% in Q1 2015, down from 7.3% in Q4 2014. This was the weakest rate of growth since March 2009 – when China was at its lowest point during the GFC. Our forecasts are unchanged – with China’s economy to grow by 7.1% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2016.

China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015
China Economic Update – 2 April 2015

China Economic Update – 2 April 2015

2 April 2015

China’s rapid industrialisation over the past few decades has provided considerable economic benefit for Australia – as a strong increase in trade and investment has increased the integration between the two countries, even before the recently negotiated free trade agreement.

China Economic Update – 2 April 2015
China Economic Update – 18 March 2015

China Economic Update – 18 March 2015

19 March 2015

In early February 2015, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50 basis points. This was the first broad based cut to the RRR since May 2012 and it could release around RMB 612 billion in liquidity. The PBoC was quick to downplay the significance of this change.

China Economic Update – 18 March 2015
China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015

China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015

12 March 2015

The annual meeting of China’s parliament commenced in early March. From an economic perspective, the key announcement was the lowered growth target – to ‘about 7%’ from ‘about 7.5%’ in 2014. Our forecasts remain unchanged – at 7.1% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2016

China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015
China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015

China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015

23 February 2015

Due to the Chinese New Year holiday period, there are limited partial economic indicators for January each year. That said, the data available points to a soft start – PMI measures are weak, imports slowed, inflation continues to soften and credit growth contracted.

China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015
Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015

13 February 2015

Based on adjusted World Steel data, global steel production rose by 3.5% in 2014 to total 1.64 billion tonnes. Prices for metallurgical coal have remained comparatively stable since March 2014. Spot prices for thermal coal have continued to drift lower.

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015
China Economic Update – 12 February 2015

China Economic Update – 12 February 2015

12 February 2015

In 2014, China’s crude oil imports came to US$228 billion – accounting for almost 19% of the country’s total imports by value and around 2.5% of total GDP. Sustained lower oil prices will therefore reduce China’s financial outflows, providing a significant boost to the economy.

China Economic Update – 12 February 2015
China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015

China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015

20 January 2015

China’s economy continues on its gradual transition, away from a manufacturing hub towards a modern, consumption based economy. One signal of this trend is the increasing share of China’s services sector (tertiary industries), averaging 48% of GDP in 2014 (up from 47% in 2013).

China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015
China Economic Update – 15 January 2015

China Economic Update – 15 January 2015

15 January 2015

In October 2014, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that China had overtaken the United States to become the world’s largest economy. This was the first time since 1872 that the US was not considered the world’s largest economy, when it overtook the United Kingdom.

China Economic Update – 15 January 2015
China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014

China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014

15 December 2014

There is a growing expectation that China’s Central Economic Work Conference will lower China’s economic growth target for 2015 – down from this year’s ‘about 7.5%’ to 7.0% – however this change may not be officially announced until the National People’s Congress meets next March.

China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014
China Economic Update – December 2014

China Economic Update – December 2014

10 December 2014

In late November, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) surprised markets with cuts to benchmark interest rates. These changes were the first in over two years – the PBoC had held rates stable since early July 2012.

China Economic Update – December 2014
China Economic Comment – November 2014

China Economic Comment – November 2014

17 November 2014

Twelve months ago, China’s Government announced its reform agenda, following on from the Third Plenum. So far, progress on these reforms has been limited, primarily in social policies such as loosening the Hukou system – which we have argued could go further – and the One Child Policy.

China Economic Comment – November 2014
China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014

China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014

14 November 2014

The cooler economic conditions experienced in the third quarter could continue into Q4 and further into 2015, reflecting the continued reluctance of Chinese policy makers to implement broad based stimulus. China’s industrial production growth also slowed slightly in October.

China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014

10 November 2014

China’s third quarter National Accounts showed the economy grew by its slowest rate since March 2009. From a bulk commodity perspective, key parts of China’s economy remain comparatively weak. Industrial production has slowed in recent months.

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014
China Economic Update – 22 October 2014

China Economic Update – 22 October 2014

23 October 2014

China’s latest economic data was a mixed bag – with many measures comparatively negative (against the trends of recent years) but stronger than somewhat pessimistic market expectations. While year-on-year GDP growth was at a five year low, the growth rate remaining above 7% will likely…

China Economic Update – 22 October 2014
China Economic Comment – October 2014

China Economic Comment – October 2014

15 October 2014

China’s changing healthcare needs require major changes to the system to avoid economic pain. The population is ageing and life expectancy is rising. With these two trends, demand for healthcare services is set to increase – particularly given the growing incidence of non-communicable diseases.

China Economic Comment – October 2014
China Economic Comment – September 2014

China Economic Comment – September 2014

22 September 2014

Conditions in China’s real estate sector have slowed considerably across 2014. The sector has been a key contributor to economic growth in recent years and a slowing trend will impose greater pressure on other parts of the economy to provide growth momentum, particularly if the Government aims to maintain its current growth target.

China Economic Comment – September 2014
China Economic Update – 15 September 2014

China Economic Update – 15 September 2014

16 September 2014

Weaker than expected industrial production data is likely to generate headlines this month. However these results are not as negative as they may seem – reflecting in part the impact of stimulus in Q3 2013.

China Economic Update – 15 September 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014

7 August 2014

Economic trends in China –the key consumer for bulk commodities –are mixed, with stabilising trends in the industrial sector (having slowed across Q1) in contrast to a slowing trend in the real estate sector (a major consumer of steel). Global steel production has continued to increase.

Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014
China Economic Comment – July 2014

China Economic Comment – July 2014

23 July 2014

The growth in China’s economy over the past thirty years has been extremely impressive, overtaking Japan in 2009 to become the world’s second largest economy. However when measured on a per capita basis, China’s economy still remains comparatively small – within the ‘middle income’ band.

China Economic Comment – July 2014
China Economic Update – 17 July 2014

China Economic Update – 17 July 2014

18 July 2014

In late June, China’s politburo agreed to fiscal and taxation reforms that were outlined at last year’s Third Plenum, setting a deadline for implementation at the end of 2016. These reforms should provide greater transparency and predictability of local government revenues.

China Economic Update – 17 July 2014
China Economic Comment – June 2014

China Economic Comment – June 2014

24 June 2014

As China’s economy has grown over the past decade, so too has China’s overseas investment. This has become a highly controversial issue in a number of countries, in part due to the difficulties faced by firms and individuals when attempting to invest in China

China Economic Comment – June 2014
China Economic Update – 16 June 2014

China Economic Update – 16 June 2014

19 June 2014

Partial economic indicators suggest that China’s economy has stabilised in recent months. These trends remain in line with our expectations, meaning that our forecasts for economic growth remain unchanged at 7.3% in 2014 and 7% in 2015.

China Economic Update – 16 June 2014
China Economic Comment – May 2014

China Economic Comment – May 2014

26 May 2014

China’s steel industry is the largest in the world and a key consumer of Australian commodity exports. The industry has been suffering in recent times due to excess capacity, weak profitability and its role in the air pollution crisis, prompting Government plans to rationalise the sector...

China Economic Comment – May 2014
China Economic Update – 13 May 2014

China Economic Update – 13 May 2014

26 May 2014

Partial economic indicators continue to highlight softening trends in China, evident since the latter part of 2013. These trends remain in line with our expectations, and as such, our forecasts for Chinese economic growth are unchanged at 7.3% in 2014 (before slowing to 7% in 2015).

China Economic Update – 13 May 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014

7 May 2014

Trends for bulk commodity prices were mixed in April, with relative stability (at very weak levels) for both thermal and metallurgical coal, while iron ore briefly recovered from the low levels in March, before retreating again.

Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014
China Economic Comment – April 2014

China Economic Comment – April 2014

7 May 2014

There have been concerns around China’s residential property market for a number of years, with bearish observers repeatedly describing the market as a bubble. In March 2014, these fears were elevated by the collapse of the Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Company.

China Economic Comment – April 2014
China Economic Update – 17 April 2014

China Economic Update – 17 April 2014

22 April 2014

There were few surprises in the latest Chinese data release, with the weakening trends evident since the latter part of last year continuing into the first quarter of 2014, with slower economic growth, comparatively soft industrial production and investment data continuing

China Economic Update – 17 April 2014
China: Special Update – 19 March 2014

China: Special Update – 19 March 2014

27 March 2014

Early this month saw China’s first onshore corporate default, when a Shanghai based solar company defaulted on its bond repayments of RMB 89.8 million (around US$14.7 million). This has been followed this week with a collapse of an unlisted private property development company.

China: Special Update – 19 March 2014
China Economic Comment – March 2014

China Economic Comment – March 2014

27 March 2014

In early March, China recorded its first domestic corporate bond default when the Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Company failed to make a RMB 89.8 million interest payment, having narrowly avoided a similar outcome in January 2013.

China Economic Comment – March 2014
China Economic Update – 14 March 2014

China Economic Update – 14 March 2014

17 March 2014

At the start of this month’s National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang confirmed China’s growth target at ‘about 7.5%’ in 2014, but noted that reform was the Government’s top priority.

China Economic Update – 14 March 2014
China Economic Update – 20 February 2014

China Economic Update – 20 February 2014

20 February 2014

Concerns have been raised by the rapid growth in local government liabilities in recent years, with questions around the stability and security of China’s sub-sovereign debt, and the risk that a potential default could trigger a broader financial crisis.

China Economic Update – 20 February 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014

6 February 2014

Bulk commodity prices softened in January, driven by the end of the restocking phase and seasonally weak steel production - which contributed to weaker demand trends for coal and iron ore. Expanding rail freight capacity in China could impact the country’s demand for seaborne coal

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014
China Economic Comment – January 2014

China Economic Comment – January 2014

23 January 2014

One of the key challenges in 2014 for China’s Central Government will be how it addresses the ongoing issue of air pollution across the country. Rising levels of smog and hazardous PM 2.5 particles have increased public health concerns.

China Economic Comment – January 2014
China Economic Update – 21 January 2014

China Economic Update – 21 January 2014

22 January 2014

China’s latest National Accounts data shows that the economy grew by 1.8% quarter on quarter in December, and 7.7% year on year - representing a marginal slowdown from the September quarter (when yoy growth was 7.8%).

China Economic Update – 21 January 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013

1 November 2013

Online sales growth edges up in September – to +0.3% mom (from even weaker sales in August). Sales trends mixed by category. In the year to September 2013, Australia’s online retail spending totaled $14.3 billion. This is equivalent to 6.3% of the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013

29 October 2013

Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013

21 October 2013

The Manufacturing Activity Index was largely unchanged in Q3 – with positive trends for business confidence offset by negative ones for labour and purchase costs and final product prices. The index implies a slight increase quarterly manufacturing activity - at around +0.4%.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013

30 September 2013

In the year to August 2013, Australians spent $14.2 bn on online retail. This level is equivalent to 6.3% of spending with traditional bricks & mortar retailer (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food to create a like-for-like comparison) in the year to July 2013.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013

1 August 2013

Online sales growth slowed to +14% yoy in June - the second slowest rate recorded. Fewer Fridays and a lack of product launches may have contributed to subdued growth. In the twelve months to June 2013, Australian online retail spending totalled $13.9 billion.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013

2 July 2013

For the year to May 2013, Australians spent around $13.7 billion with online retailers. This is equivalent to 6.1% of the spending in the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food for a like-to-like comparison) in the year to April 2013.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013

24 April 2013

The Manufacturing Activity Index improved in Q1, up to neutral levels – driven largely by less negative levels for business confidence. The index implies no growth in quarterly manufacturing activity – which would represent a slowdown according to recent official data.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013

3 April 2013

Online Retail Sales Index weaker in February. Sales grew by +19% yoy in the month, the weakest growth rate since May 2012. For the twelve months ending February 2013, Australia’s online retail spending totaled $13.1 billion. This level is equivalent to around 5.9% of Australia’s …

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012

5 February 2013

Online Retail Sales Index dipped in December (from Nov peak) – a seasonal trend around Christmas. Sales up 23% yoy, but slowing implying a ‘weaker online’ December. In 2012, Australia’s online retail spending was $12.8 billion. This level is around 5.8% of the size of Australia’s.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012

9 January 2013

Online Retail Sales Index surges ahead of Christmas, but year-on-year growth only edged higher to 27%. In the twelve months to November 2012, Australians spent around $12.6 billion on online retail. This level is equivalent to 5.7% of the scale of traditional bricks & mortar retail

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012
Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012

Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012

23 October 2012

The Manufacturing Activity Index was unchanged in Q3 – despite diverging trends in the index components – remaining at negative levels. The index indicates further falls in Manufacturing growth in the quarter, which remains burdened by global economic trends and the strength of the dollar

Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012