Gerard Burg

Gerard Burg

Senior Economist

“He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting trends in emerging Asian economies”

Gerard has over a decade of experience as a professional economist, currently specialising in international economic research. He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting trends in emerging Asian economies, with a particular emphasis on China. He is also a member of the bank’s commodities research team, focusing on trends in iron ore and coal markets.

Gerard joined NAB in 2005, and previously focused on risk analysis across a range of industry sectors in Australia and abroad. He had particular expertise in areas such as Mining, Manufacturing, Healthcare and Retail, including the development of research into online retail sales. Prior to joining NAB, he was an economist with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, focusing on commodities and energy research.

He holds Bachelors degrees in Economics (with Honours) and Commerce from the Australian National University.


NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall significantly in Q4 2019.

Pork shortfall to maintain higher inflation in the near term.

India’s economy needs a stimulatory kick start, with no guarantees of recovery.

China’s industrial sector struggling ahead of the latest round of trade measures.

In US dollar terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 1.8% quarter on quarter in Q3 2019.

China’s economy is continuing to slow, even before the latest round of US tariffs (and China’s retaliation), meaning there’s further downside risk.

US dollar NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecasted to increase by 2.1% yoy in Q3 2019, however underlying trends remain highly mixed. Higher export prices for LNG and iron ore (despite more recent spot price falls) are the key contributors, while both thermal and metallurgical coal are weaker, as are most base metals.

How successful has China’s deleveraging program been in managing the country’s debt?

Growth slowed in Q2 but policy support should see it stabilise.

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index has been on the up in recent quarters, in large part due to iron ore prices.

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.

Policy makers ready to stimulate as signs of weakness grow.

Can China weaponise rare earths to open a new front in the trade war?

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