The modest recovery in industry unlikely to continue, China is moving away from the ‘old economy’

• Indicators of China’s industrial sector were somewhat improved in November, with both industrial production and fixed asset investment showing stronger growth following recent lows in September. The pickup in investment came despite a further contraction in real estate investment.

• We don’t anticipate a strengthening in industrial growth to continue – it is worth noting that both major industrial surveys remain in negative territory – as China’s economy continues to transition to consumption based growth.

• Trends in the retail sector remain strong – with real retail sales growth at 11% yoy in November – signalling the stronger performance of China’s services sector. November also saw Singles’ Day – the world’s largest online shopping day, with total sales over six times that of the US Cyber Monday.

• Trade data continued to highlight the weaker industrial growth trends – with both import and export values declining year-on-year.  China’s trade surplus was lower in November – due to month-on-month increase in imports – but remained at historically high levels.

• In November, the IMF announced that China’s currency will be included in the Special Drawing Rights basket – commencing in October 2016. Its share – at 10.9% – will be larger than both the Japanese Yen and British Pound in the new basket. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on demand for the Yuan and on global capital flows –however this move may provide a signal of international support for the reform agenda proposed by China’s leadership.

For further details, please see the attached document:

China’s economy at a glance – December (PDF, 507KB)