October 1, 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights 1 October 2020

While still contracting, Vic (-7.4%) spending falls have moderated, with an improvement in non-lockdown areas.

During these extraordinary times we have taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.

For the week ended September 26, NAB data showed a relatively flat (-0.2%) year-on-year fall in overall consumption spending. While still contracting, Vic (-7.4%) spending falls have moderated, with an improvement in non-lockdown areas (+8.4%) and lockdown areas (-12.5%) stabilising. Spending also fell in the ACT, and QLD, with other states remaining in growth territory. Across key sectors, retail trade is still above last year, and health and social assistance are also strongly positive. The slide in hospitality spend looks to have levelled out, but remain at very weak levels.

Total payment inflows into NAB merchants grew +5.2% in 6-week rolling year-on-year terms in the period ending September 26, continuing the growth trend reported in our last update. JobKeeper payments have likely inflated the  growth rate. Removing the JobKeeper payments, the growth in payment inflows is around +3.6%.  Hospitality, Transport, Postal & Warehousing remain weak. Other Services, Arts & Recreation Services, Manufacturing, Retail, Construction, and Healthcare are strongest. Mining has rebounded since the last report with growth of +8.8% but Wholesale Trade reversed its growth trajectory (-6.2%).

For further details, please see NAB Data Insights 1 October 2020 Report