NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides his thoughts on the Australian and Global economy.
For the week ended September 12, NAB data showed a -2.5% year-on-year fall in overall consumption spending.
During these extraordinary times we have taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.
For the week ended September 12, NAB data showed a -2.5% year-on-year fall in overall consumption spending. Heavy falls in VIC (-15.4%) – in lockdown areas (-19.2%) and non-lockdown areas (-3.8%) – continue to weigh heavily on the national result. That said, spending also fell in the ACT and was weaker (but positive) in all other states as well. Across key sectors, Retail is still above last year, though it has eased noticeably relative to last week. The slide in Hospitality spend looks to have levelled out, but at very weak levels.
Total payment inflows into NAB merchants grew 5.6% in 6-week rolling year-on-year terms in the period ending September 12. While this represented the fastest rate of growth since mid-June and the first time growth was positive across all business sizes since late-March, large increase in Jobkeeper payments received last week have distorted the data somewhat. Hospitality, Transport, Postal & Warehousing, and Mining are still very weak (but better than last week). Retail, Other Services, Construction, Manufacturing, Arts & Recreation Services, and Healthcare are strongest, with inflows into these industries growing at double-digit levels in the most recent 6-week period.
For further details, please see NAB Data Insights 17 September 2020 Report
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