Overview

• Consumer spending, according to NAB’s transaction data, was broadly flat in March, with growth revised up to a small positive for February to see total spending up 1.5% across Q1 as a whole.
• Retail spending declined 0.5% in the month (in seasonally adjusted terms), led by goods categories.
• Business credits rose 0.6% m/m, or 0.7% excluding mining and agriculture.

Comments from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster

“Our monthly transaction data suggest spending was broadly steady in March but still shows a reasonable rise across the first quarter of the year overall.”

“Retail spending appears to have declined in seasonally adjusted terms in the month, but prices may be playing a role here especially as inflation eases.”

“We know consumers remain under pressure and we expect that to show up in subdued spending through the first half of the year before easing inflation starts to more materially support real incomes later in 2024.”

For further details please see NAB Monthly Data Insights (March 2024)