Overview

• Over the past three months, we observed broad growth in spending, (+1.3%, 3m/3m), although this was slightly slower than the three-month-average growth in the December quarter (+1.7%).
• NAB’s transaction data suggests that consumer spending grew moderately in March (0.1%, m/m) after an upwardly revised 0.4% in February (was -0.3% previously published). Reasonably strong growth in retail goods, and essential services was partially offset by a fall in services spending, especially hospitality, and vehicle services.
• Monthly consumer spending by state was generally positive except for NSW and QLD, which may somewhat reflect the impact on spending in those states from Cyclone Alfred. 
• While spending on retail trade grew (+0.2% m/m) at a rate slightly above broader consumption, this eased from the rapid growth recorded in February. Total retail increased 0.6% in the three months to March, and 6.5% in year-on-year terms. Cafes & restaurants fell 1.4% in the month, reversing the rise in February.
• Unlike most other segments, non-discretionary spending accelerated slightly in monthly terms while discretionary spending fell 0.4%.
• Business credits fell in March (-2.3%) after rising by 0.6% in February. Business credits have increased by 9.8% over the past 12 months, or 9.0% excluding mining and agriculture.

Monthly Consumer Spending

• Total spending rose 0.1% m/m in March, with February growth revised to 0.4% (from -0.3%). Overall, total consumer spending increased 1.3% in 3-month average terms and 6.5% over the past 12 months.
• Spending on retail trade slowed to 0.2% m/m following stronger, revised growth in February (0.7%), with March weakness strongly influenced by the result for cafés and restaurants (-1.4% m/m).
• The   fall in vehicles & fuel spend continued in March (down 1.5%), along with other spending. This was offset by strong monthly growth for essential services.
• For services, growth in utilities, transport, and comms was offset by falls in hospitality, arts, and construction. Spending on retail goods offset a fall in vehicles and fuel. Discretionary spending fell in the month (-0.4%) while non-discretionary spending accelerated slightly to 0.7%.

For further details please see NAB Monthly Data Insights (March 2025)