Overview

• Consumer spending, according to NAB’s transaction data, rose by 0.1% m/m in November. Estimated spending in October was also revised up, now showing a smaller decrease of -0.6% m/m. Retail spending also rose in November, up 1.0% m/m.
• Discretionary spending rose in the month, while there was a fall in in non-discretionary spending driven by fuel. Both categories remain higher in three-month average and year-on-year terms.
• Business credits picked up 1.2% m/m in November, or 1.4% when excluding mining and agriculture.

Comments from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster

“Our monthly transaction data showed a pickup in spending in November, particularly in retail where the Black Friday sales clearly played a role. Before seasonal adjustment, our data suggest a 10% increase in goods retail spending, up from the 8.4% increase in November 2022.”

“Total spending was broadly unchanged in the month but this partly reflected falling fuel prices, with spending across discretionary categories picking up in the month.”

“Nonetheless, we know that household budgets are under pressure and some of the extra spending in November will likely translate into softer spending in December.”

For further details please see NAB Monthly Data Insights (November 2023)