Overview

• Consumer spending, according to NAB’s transaction data, declined by 1.3% m/m in October. Estimated spending in September was, however, revised up, now showing an increase of 1.3% m/m. Retail spending also declined in October, by -0.7% m/m overall.
• Discretionary and non-discretionary spending fell in the month. Both categories remain higher in three-month average and year-on-year terms.
• Business credits picked up 0.9% m/m in October, or 1.2% when excluding mining and agriculture.

Comments from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster

“Our monthly transaction data showed a fall in spending in October across a number of categories including retail as well as a range of services sectors.”

“There are some significant changes in seasonal spending patterns that may be contributing to these results, including possibly some consumers delaying spending ahead of the Black Friday sales in November.”

“Still, households remain under pressure and we will be watching closely to see how spending evolves, especially given the recent rise in interest rates and the resilience of inflation.”

For further details please see NAB Monthly Data Insights (October 2023)