Overview

• Consumer spending, according to NAB’s transaction data, continued to grow modestly in September, rising 0.3% m/m. Estimated spending in August was also revised up, now showing an increase of 1.4% m/m. Retail spending was in line with the overall result at 0.4% m/m.
• Discretionary spending rose slightly in the month, while there was a rebound in non-discretionary spending after a small fall in August. Both categories remain higher in three-month average terms.
• Business credits picked up 0.8% m/m in September, or 0.7% when excluding mining and agriculture.

Comments from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster

“Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with growth in September following on from fairly strong nominal growth in prior months.”

“Higher fuel prices have contributed to spending but growth remains positive when fuel is excluded. On the other hand, some discretionary categories have been declining, including arts, recreation & travel, and transport services.”

“For Q3 as a whole, our transaction data suggests total spending rose around 3% in nominal terms. Even allowing for the impact of inflation, this suggests real consumption growth may have remained surprisingly resilient through the quarter despite the pressures on household budgets.”

For further details please see NAB Monthly Data Insights (September 2023)