NAB Online Retail Sales Index: January 2017
Online sales slightly faster over the year, contracts in the month
Key points
- The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted -0.5% (mom, s.a.) in January, much slower than the revised previous month (0.5%,mom, s.a.). Year on year growth accelerated from 11.1% in December to 11.7% in January. The revised trend estimate for online retail sales continues to slow, currently at 0.5%, down from 0.6% last month.
- ABS data on traditional retailers showed month on month seasonally adjusted grew 0.5% in December, with year on year growth of 3.7%.
- We estimate that Australian consumers have spent around $21.83 billion over the last 12 months to January 2017. This is equivalent to 7.2% of spending at traditional bricks & mortar retailers as measured by the ABS in the 12 months to December 2016.
- The January year on year result was partly due to an improvement in slowing in two larger spend share categories – Homeware and Appliances (17.8% yoy Jan vs 15.6% yoy Dec), and Groceries and Liquor (6.1% yoy vs 3.3% yoy), along with smaller spend share categories of Personal and Recreational Goods (13.8% yoy vs 12.3% yoy) and Department Stores (4.6% yoy vs 1.4% yoy).
- Categories to slow include larger spend share categories of Media (16.1% yoy vs 20.5% yoy) and Fashion (7.1% yoy vs 7.3% yoy), and smaller share categories of Food Catering (25.3% vs 34.9% yoy), and Daily Deals (3.5% yoy vs 6.2% yoy). Games and Toys remained weak despite improving in January (-0.9% yoy vs -2.2% yoy).
- SME sales represents just over a third of all online sales. In the month, SME sales rebounded (+0.9%,mom s.a.) after a weak December result (-1.1%). Year on year growth for SMEs (19.7%) was also considerably stronger than Corporates (11.7%).
For further details, please see the attached document.
About the Author
Brien is an Economist at NAB and is involved predominantly in the area of industry insight using risk metrics. Brien’s chief responsibilities are Industry Ratings and analysis that provides industry insights.
He is a regular attendee on Sector boards and contributor to Risk appetite statements.
Prior to NAB Economics Brien was involved in the NAB Credit Risk area, in the development and monitoring quantitative credit risk assessment models.
Before life at NAB, Brien was an Associate Lecturer in Economics at LaTrobe University, teaching in areas related to economic development focussing on Asia, and the international business environment.
