August 15, 2019

FX podcast: revised AUD outlook

In this month’s FX Podcast, Ray Attrill and Phil Dobbie discuss NAB’s revised outlook for the AUD.


  • On the premise that the Chinese Yuan will rise further above 7 against the USD in coming months in an environment where global growth and commodities are likely to struggle, weaker AUD levels are justified and we have revised down significantly our forecasts for AUD/USD.
  • Some reprieve for the AUD/GBP and AUD/EUR is likely as markets come to terms with the realisation that even if an October 31st no-deal Brexit can be avoided, an early UK general election probably can’t. GBP could easily fall by 10% or more in the coming few months.
  • In a generally less risk positive environment, AUD/JPY is now seen incapable of trading back consistently above ¥75 anytime soon.
  • We retain our view for higher AUD/NZD cross targeting 1.07 by year end.

Listen now!

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