After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.
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Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.
Markets Today – We Found Love
Fed's Waller inches open the US rate cut door
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Insights, Trends & Case Studies
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too
Markets Today – Route Sixty Six
The Aussie dollar came within kissing distance of 66 US cents on Friday
Markets Today – Flatline
UK best Eurozone on the PMI front in Thanksgiving- thinned markets
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Todays podcast US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.
Markets Today – Feel Good Time
US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.
Markets Today – I get knocked down, but I get up again
Another choppy night on bond markets with 10yr yields on net little changed and the curve twist flattening slightly.
Markets Today – Sour Candy
A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
It was a busy 24 hours for data flow globally. Yields partially retraced yesterday’s post-CPI bond rally, while equities have held onto gains.
Markets Today – Slow
US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.
Markets Today – The Core
Subdued start to the week ahead of US CPI tonight
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer
Markets Today – Torn
Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.
Markets Today – Doom and Gloom
Oil prices down again as demand pessimism deepens
Markets Today – Just Give Me a Reason
Quiet data wise, but some notable moves in markets.
Markets Today – When the Night Falls Quiet
It was a quiet start to the week for news flow, which was mostly reflected in market movements, though yields are generally higher.
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.
Markets Today – Crazy in love
Risk-on continues in the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as investors price the aggressive monetary hiking cycle as being closer to the end.
Markets Today – On Hold
The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.
Markets Today – Talk Talk
Japanese Yen slumps after only minor BoJ policy tweaks
Markets Today – Shake It Off (Taylor’s Version)
Risk sentiment started the week on firmer footing. Equities are higher, the US dollar is lower, and US yields were higher. Brent oil lost 3%, back below $88 a barrel.
Markets Today – Muddy Waters
European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.
Markets Today – European Disappointment
Weaker European PMIs, and potentially some unwind of yesterday’s move, have seen a stronger US dollar the main mover overnight, up 0.7% on the DXY.
Markets Today – Close but no Cigar
Close but no cigar – US 10 year bonds traded to as high as 4.99% on Friday
Markets Today – Carefully
Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment
Markets Today – Wait and See
Higher US yields and 'risk-off' tone see AUD's hard-fought gains undone
Markets Today – Here I Go Again
Strong US retail sales sees yields rocket – 10yr yield +14bps to 4.84%
Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful
Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]
Podcast
Markets Today – Curse Of The Curves
US CPI reverses much of the earlier week market moves
Markets Today – Be Alright
Global markets were relatively stable overnight ahead of tonight’s key risk event of US CPI.
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.
Markets Today – Work It
Stronger than expected payrolls data initially saw yields sharply higher, equities lower, and the USD stronger, though with the unemployment rate steady and earnings growth moderating, those moves were retraced.
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.
Markets Today – Breathe
The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.
Markets Today – Pour It Up
The sell-off in global bonds continued with fresh cycle highs being set for longer-term yields. The
Markets Today – Calm before the storm
US equities start the new week in a sedated manner while European counterparts record sharp declines. Front end yields have a led a bear flattening of the UST curve and the USD is a tad softer
Markets Today – Livin’ On a Prayer
The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.
Markets Today – As high as it gets?
Todays podcast ECB opts to hike, but taken as dovish with guidance read as a peak in rates Euro -0.8% and European yields are lower US Retail Sales data stronger in August, though offset by revisions AU Employment bounced in August Coming up: China Activity & MLF rate, NZ Manufacturing PMI, US UMich confidence […]
Markets Today – Snooze
It was a subdued market reaction to the highly anticipated US CPI print.
Markets Today – I’ll Oil Wells Love You
Ahead of US CPI tonight, oil prices have ratcheted higher as OPEC+ cuts continue to bite
Markets Today – Breathe
Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]
Markets Today – Nothing Gonna Break my Stride
US equities manage a marginal gain on Friday, but lower over the week and yields edge higher.
Markets Today – Slow Ride
Yields are generally lower globally after a boost to US 2-year yields from lower jobless claims proved short-lived while equities declined.
Markets Today – Top of the World
A rise in Services activity last month confirms the US economy still sits firmly on top of the world
AMW – Labour Markets – Progress on rebalancing labour markets in the US and Australia
In this Weekly, we take stock of progress rebalancing labour markets in the US and Australia, finding significant progress has been made on a range of indicators even without a sizeable lift in unemployment rates
Markets Today – Constant Repeat
A softer Caixin Services PMI soured the mood yesterday, with the USD broadly stronger and the AUD the worst G10 performer
Markets Today – Holiday
It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.
Markets Today – The Best
Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried
Markets Today – ‘Aint No Mountain High Enough (or is there?)
Overnight, the BoE’s Pill references ‘Matterhorn’ versus ‘Table Top Mountain’ approaches to monetary policy
Markets Today – Hot and Cold
US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.
Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers
Softer US consumer confidence and a JOLTs report suggesting ongoing rebalancing in the labour market saw the US dollar and US yields lower, while equities were higher.
Markets Today – Waltzing Matilda(s)
Aussie retail sales were stronger than expected in July, but World Cup fever was a factor says NAB’s Ray Attrill
Markets Today – Play it Safe
Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.
Markets Today – Artificial Light
Caution prevails in front of Jackson Hole; stocks down, bond yields back up, AUD back lower
Markets Today – Falling
Yields were generally lower globally as PMI data came in softer than expectations, with deterioration most pronounced in German Services. The AUD was stronger, as were US equities, with tech leading once again ahead of much anticipated earnings from Nvidia.
Markets Today – Marking Time
US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.
Markets Today – Back to the Grind
US yields resumed their grind higher to start the new week, though there was little news to speak of, while US equities where higher.
Markets Today – I Got You Babe
Yields lower on Friday, but still close to recent cycle highs
Markets Today – Doom Loop
It’s been onwards and upwards for global bond yields overnight, and AUD has spent time below 64 cents
Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried
Todays podcast FOMC Minutes show concern about upside risks to inflation US yields higher led by 5bp rise in 10yr Equities were lower, S&P500 -0.8% with declines late in the session Asia equities weighed by China concerns AUD -0.5% against a broadly stronger dollar at 0.6421 Coming up: AU Employment, NZ PPI, JN Machinery Orders, […]
Markets Today – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
A stark contrast Tuesday between strong US retail sales and very weak China data
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD
Markets Today – No Green Light
A higher-than-expected US PPI print contributed to higher yields, while equities ended the week on a muted note.
Markets Today – I Ain’t Worried
US Core CPI just 0.160% m/m and 3m annualised rate now 3.1%
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.
Markets Today – Sour Candy
Risk appetite has been weighed over the past 24 hours by a trio of soft China data, a surprise ‘windfall’ tax on bank profits in Italy, and a downgrade of a number of small and mid-sized banks by Moody’s.
Markets Today – Holiday
Northern hemisphere summer holidays and a lack of data has seen markets treading water ahead of US CPI figures on Thursday.
Markets Today – Soft Parade
Bond sell-off reverses on softer US payrolls
Markets Today – Schadenfreude
BoE lifts Bank Rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, to limited market reaction. US payrolls tonight
Markets Today – Higher Ground
Yields rise, US 10yr hits 4.12% before easing back to 4.08%, highest since Nov 2022
Markets Today – Pump It
The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
Markets were generally quiet to start to week ahead of key risk events later in the week (BoE Thursday, US ISM Services Thursday, US Payrolls Friday).
Markets Today – Big in Japan (or perhaps not)
Friday’s BoJ announcements made a bigger initial impression on global bond markets than FX
Markets Today – Better than you
Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.
Markets Today – The Last Time (or not)
The US FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25-5.50% as universally expected.
Markets Today – Devil Inside
AUD approaches 0.68, buoyed by China stimulus news and RMB gains
Markets Today – Shivers
Weak European PMIs have seen yields fall, though moves in US Treasuries retraced latter in the day.
Markets Today – The Waiting
US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.
Markets Today – Workin’ For A Livin’
US yields higher with Jobless Claims lower than expected
Markets Today – You’re the Voice
Central bankers globally seem to have switched to a more measured tone recently. Overnight tapas
Markets Today – Slow and low
Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.
Markets Today – Paradise
Yields tumbled and risk assets soared as US CPI came in much softer than expected
Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.
Markets Today – Maybe Next Time
The RBA met yesterday and held rates steady. Other than that, it was a very quiet 24 hours characterised by thin trading alongside the US 4 July holiday.
Markets Today – Should I Stay or Should I Go
A quiet night overnight given shortened pre-holiday trade in the US ahead of Independence Day today.
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.
Markets Today – I Knew You Were Trouble
Fed, ECB, BoE heads reiterate hawkish views; BoJ reiterates dovish stance
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.
Markets Today – Against the Grain
Quiet start to week with no market fall-out from weekend Russia news. Weaker Yuan a focus.
Markets Today – PMI Slowdown
PMIs on Friday showed Eurozone output growth close to stalling, seeing Europe lead yields lower and the euro fall.
Markets Today – Fifty Fifty
The BoE surprises market with 50bps, Norges Bank less so with its 50bps. SNB opts for a ‘hawkish' 25bps
Markets Today – No relief
Powell added little new information in House testimony, but the US dollar was weaker and equities were lower. UK CPI data surprised higher ahead of the BoE later today
Markets Today – Weather With You
Soft risk sentiment overall last night which was mostly China driven.
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.
Markets Today – King of the World
AUD ends a big if short local week at the top of the G10 currency pile, AUD/USD +2% w/w
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.
Markets Today – Two of a Kind
Fed pauses as expected but ‘dot plot’ adds two, not one, more rate rises to 2023
Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?
US CPI was in line with expectations, adding to confidence the FOMC will skip at tomorrow’s meeting even as yields pushed higher. Strong UK labour market saw UK yields surge.
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.
Markets Today – When Bad Does Good
Jump in US jobless claims supports lowers US yields and US$; S&P500 back in bull market
Markets Today – My [Hikes] Will Go On
The BoC shocked markets overnight, hiking by 25bps to 4.75%.
Markets Today – Consequences
It has been a quiet 24 hours in markets with generally small market movements, while the Australian dollar held onto its gains following yesterday RBA rate hike, 0.8% higher against the US dollar.
Markets Today – Rebel Without a Pause?
Markets go into today’s RBA decision ascribing a roughly 65% chance to a pause
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.
Markets Today – Mr Brightside
A positive night for risk sentiment with equities up (S&P500 +1.0%; Eurostoxx50 +0.9%), USD down (DXY -0.7%), and yields lower (US 10yr -3.8bps to 3.60% and 2yr -6.4bps to 4.34%).
Markets Today – Pause for Thought
The AUD had fallen to a new post November 2022 following more disappointing China data
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.
Markets Today – Holiday
Public Holidays in the US, UK and Germany made for a very quiet night as far as market moves are concerned.
Markets Today – Now That I Found You
US equities were higher on Friday as hopes grew of a debt ceiling deal, ahead of news on the weekend that an agreement in principle had indeed been found. US data was strong and Fed tightening expectations firmed.
Markets Today – Diamond in the rough
The US dollar extended its positive streak and yields globally were higher despite mixed economic data as AI-related tech saw US equites higher
Markets Today – The Price You Pay
Still no sign of breakthrough on US debt ceiling talks, souring risk sentiment.
Markets Today – Tug of War
The absence of a debt ceiling deal weighs on risk sentiment even as Biden calls talks ‘productive,’ while global PMIs reaffirm the stark divergence between services and goods.
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
A quiet start to the week with little in the way of significant market moves.
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.
19 May 2023 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
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Markets Today – High Hopes
Hopes for a deal on the debt ceiling improved.
Markets Today – Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive
Positive soundbites from Biden and McCarthy give hope a debt deal can be reached.
Markets Today – Far Away
A flurry of global economic data but relatively modest market movements.
Markets Today – Waiting on the World to Change
A quiet start to the week with little in the way of new news or top-tier data.
Markets Today – Comeback Kid
Markets were spoked on Friday by an unexpected rise in US consumer inafltion expectations
Markets Today – Tough Medicine
The Bank of England raised rates by 25bp as expected, while softer data out of China and the US weighed on risk sentiment
Markets Today – Moderation
Markets are showing relief that the key US CPI release overnight was not higher than expected
Markets Today – Tread water
Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.
Markets Today – No imminent crunch
US and EU equities have closed with modest gains while core yields extended Friday’s rise. The Fed Senior Loan Officer revealed a modest deterioration in lending standards alongside a drop in demand for loans, so no evidence of an imminent credit crunch. The USD is little changed with NZD leading a modest outperformance by pro-growth currencies.
Markets Today – Waiting for Godot
Payrolls more than solid enough, challenging views of imminent rate cuts
Markets Today – Dead Man’s Curve
Latest US yield curve movements are giving an even stronger signal of imminent US recession
Markets Today – Could this be enough?
US yields were lower and the dollar stronger with the FOMC increasing rates by 25bp as expected and dropping the expectation for further hikes.
Markets Today – Dance Monkey
Big moves in markets overnight as US regional bank worries reignited, signs of catering in European loan demand, and a sharp fall in US job openings.
Markets Today – Resolution
US yields are higher and the dollar stronger with little fallout from the failure of First Republic, being acquired by JP Morgan in an FDIC-supported deal.
Markets Today – A lot to digest
The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.
Markets Today – Where’s North from Here?
Softer US growth but stubbornly sticky prices has seen US yields higher, while US equities recorded their biggest gain since January.
Markets Today – No Help Coming
The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.
Markets Today – First (Republic) Time
Us equities haven fallen sharply, bond yields are lower and AUD/USD is back near 0.66, ahead of CPI this morning.
Markets Today – Titanium
A quiet end to a choppy week, with some intra-day volatility following stronger than expected PMIs.
Markets Today – The Reason
Weaker second-tier US data has helped push global yields lower, while disappointing earnings by Tesla (-9.7%) and talk of margin compression dragged down equities.
Markets Today – Shake it up
The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations
Markets Today – Some like it hot
A quiet overnight session despite the plethora of earnings reports.
Markets Today – Empire State of Mind
The uplift in US bond yields continued overnight, supporting the US dollar but not hurting equities
Markets Today – Is it really so bad?
Stronger than expected US data pushed US yields higher and supported a broadly stronger US dollar on Friday.
Markets Today – Love Is In The Air
Todays podcast Soft US PPI helps drive a risk-on rally Adds to views the US Fed is almost done USD falls, and AUD and NZD outperform Yields mixed, equities up ahead of earnings Coming up: US Retail Sales, US Bank Earnings “Love is in the air, everywhere I look around; Love is in the air, […]
Markets Today – Good, but good enough?
US treasuries retraced most of their post-CPI rally overnight with core CPI coming in as expected.
Markets Today – Waiting for you
It was a quiet session overnight ahead of key risk events later in the week (US CPI is on Wednesday and bank earnings are on Friday, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan).
Markets Today – False Claims
There were no major surprises in Friday’s US NFP report, unlike the prior days weekly jobless claims data.
Markets Today – Could this be the slowing we’ve been waiting for?
Softer US data saw recession concerns to the fore, with yields lower over the day but some safe-haven dynamics supporting the USD.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.
Markets Today – Stick or Twist
Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today
Markets Today – Love so soft
A softer than expected US Core PCE Deflator (0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% expected) helped push yields lower on Friday (US 10yr -8.1bps to 3.47%).
Markets Today – What’s old is new again
It’s a third successive day of relative calm across markets, though an upside surprise to German CPI has seen European yields push higher.
Markets Today – It’s All Good
The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.
Markets Today – Relative Calm
There has been little top-level news flow over the past 24 hours, which has seen markets relatively calm by the standards of recent weeks.
Markets Today – Everything’s Gonna be Alright
Bond yields are sharply higher overnight, improved sentiment towards the banking sector one key driver
Markets Today – Night of hunters
Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.
Markets Today – Janet
After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%, continued QT, and kept the existing dot plot which pencils in one further hike to 5.00-5.25%. Market reaction was dovish, but was not risk on.
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Todays podcast VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]
Markets Today – So Yesterday
It was another fairly volatile day following the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse, though overall the deal seems to have found some cautious acceptance.
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.
Markets today – ECB sticks to its guns (sort of)
The ECB delivered on its 50bps rate promise but scraps forward guidance. Meanwhile the US’ First Republic Bank gets a $30bn deposit injection from other banks
Markets Today – Panic on the dance floor
Banking sector turmoil is back to the fore driving all markets, today centred on Credit Suisse.
Markets Today – Are we out of the woods yet?
Bond yields rose sharply on the developing assessment of turmoil in US banking, helped by but largely overshadowing a stubbornly strong US CPI.
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.
Markets Today: All for the lack of tuppence
The collapse of SVB, the 16th largest bank in the US with $209bn in assets (as at 31 Dec 2022), shook markets on Thursday and Friday. That
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.
Markets Today – Get Set
Markets broadly held onto Tuesday’s wild moves, which were driven by US Fed Chair Powell’s Senate Testimony. Overnight Powell spoke again to the House.
Markets Today: Warning Sign
The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.
Markets Today: Hawkish Holzmann
Hawkish comments from ECB’s Holzmann send European yields higher in an otherwise quiet night for news flow
Markets Today: I Feel Better
The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.
3 March 2023 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: (No) Resistance
The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.
Markets Today: 99 Luftballons
The US 10yr finally breached 4.00% for the first time since November, following five days of resistance. A hot German CPI and renewed price pressure in the Manufacturing ISM drove, while risk assets were mixed given the strong China PMIs yesterday
Markets Today: I won’t back down
Upside surprises to European inflation out of Spain and France have seen ECB pricing and European yields push higher, with some bleed through into the US. Elsewhere, US equities are little changed, shrugging off soft consumer confidence data, but are and on track for a monthly decline of more than 2%.
Markets Today: You’ve Got a Friend in Me
A quiet start to the week with no top-tier data. The biggest piece of news was the EU and UK agreeing to a new Northern Ireland trade agreement, now termed the Windsor Agreement.
Markets Today: Too Hot
The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.
Markets Today: Edgy
US equities stage a late recovery, but remain edgy
Markets Today: Wages Day
In Australia yesterday, WPI wages data showed less wages pressure than feared. WPI grew 0.8% q/q and 3.3% y/y, 0.2ppts below the market consensus and RBA expectations.
Markets Today: Resilience and hope drives bond yields higher
The flow of economic data surprises has continued overnight and this time it was a uniformly stronger than expected performance of the services sector across major Developed Market economies.
Markets Today: US back to work for PMI day
President Biden visited Ukraine, where he pledged ‘unwavering support’ for the country as the Russia’s invasion nears the one-year mark.
Markets Today: All quiet for Presidents Day
It was mostly quiet on Friday and on the weekend, with an initial push higher in yields and sell-off in equities largely reversing later in the session.
Markets Today: Americans and Aussies spend, whilst UK prices slide
US retail sales soared in January jumping 3% well above the consensus, 2.0% and Sales ex-autos jumped by 2.3%, more than double the consensus, 0.9%.
MT: Resilient inflation pushes yields higher and sends stocks in a spin
As for the data itself, US CPI was ever so slightly above consensus.
Markets Today: Fireworks for Inflation Day
The main takeaway being that Americans anticipate income growth to slow and inflation to stay elevated.
Markets Today: Canada’s turn to surprise on jobs
Headlines of impending Ueda nomination for BoJ Governor see volatile yen..
Markets Today: Mixed messages yet a clear one from bond yields
NY Fed’s Williams stressing importance of financial conditions in policy reaction function..
Markets Today: All quiet but for the sound of central bankers
NY Fed’s Williams stressing importance of financial conditions in policy reaction function..
Markets Today: Hawkish RBA, open Powell
Powell then also noted how the strength in the labour market underscores why the Fed thinks it could take time to bring inflation down.
Markets Today: Will the RBA join the push to go higher?
The RBA this afternoon and Powell interview in Washington tonight are today’s main draw cards.
Markets Today: Do more jobs mean more work for central banks?
Fed pricing has shot back up following Payrolls and the ISM to almost fully pricing a 25bps March hike and then a follow up May hike (there is now 40bps priced across the two meetings, up from 30bps the day prior).
Markets Today: We don’t believe you
Big moves overnight with the BoE and ECB feeding the market narrative that the end of the tightening phase may be nearing.
Markets Today: Fed up and the fight ain’t over
Fed hikes by 25bps, signals ‘ongoing rate increases’ will be appropriate..
Markets Today: Slower US wages growth gives hope for a Fed pause
First to US wage data overnight. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is closely watched by the Fed as it compositionally adjusts wages growth..
31 January 2023 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: ECB still faces inflation and output challenges
Market pricing for ECB meetings increased, helping European yields higher across the curve.
Markets Today: A big week for earnings and central banks
The S&P 500 Index closed 0.25% higher on Friday, finishing the week 2.5% higher.
Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism
Since Australia Day the two biggest pieces of news were the BoC explicitly signalling a pause to the hiking cycle on Wednesday after hiking by 25bps, and US Q4 GDP which although beating expectations had a soft underbelly (2.9% annualised vs. 2.6% expected; but private domestic just 0.2%).
Markets Today: US stocks hit by reality check, Aussie CPI today
European and US PMIs were the main data flow overnight.
Markets Today: Thin trade before a flurry of PMIs
Tech stocks lead gains in US equities. NASDAQ up just under 2%.
Markets Today: Year of the Rabbit. Ready for the bounce?
5% Netflix post-earnings pop helps drive best day for S&P500 in two weeks
Markets Today: Overreaction to Aussie jobs numbers, none to US debt ceiling
USD softer despite ‘risk-off’ market tone.
Markets Today: Central banks hold out despite weaker data
Very weak US retail and industrial production adds to the tumble in yields
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.
MT: Big questions for BoJ and BoE, with no easy answers
US out for MLK day holiday. S&P futures little changed
Markets Today: Quietly confident
US equities managed to claw back into the green on Friday to extend the strong start to the year.
Markets Today: Heading in the right direction
US CPI cools as expected, but with even more encouraging details.
Markets Today: Aussie Retail Therapy & US Inflation-Watch
Ahead of CPI tonight US Treasuries (and bonds globally) have rallied, 10-year US notes off 5bps (3bps of that seen in the Tokyo session) and 2s down just under 2bps.
Markets Today: Early year optimism
Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
BoJ stuns markets with a 0% YCC tolerance band widening…
Markets Today: Big in Japan
The BoJ thus takes out our award for the most unpredictable central bank of 2022.
Markets Today: Last minutes before Christmas
Equity sentiment has not been helped by a decent sell-off in core global bonds.
MT: US services slide; China promises a J-curve recovery
Recession risks were highlighted on Friday with the US S&P Global Services PMI again in contractionary territory.
16 December 2022 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Hawks fly over frigid Europe
Hawkish ECB rhetoric post 50bps rate rise spooks risk markets
Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.
MT: Christmas comes early with cooler US inflation
CPI comes in cool at 0.1% m/m and 7.1% y/y, two tenths below consensus
MT: US equities bounce ahead of a divided Fed
A distinctly cautious air prevails in front of tonight’s all-important US CPI release and tomorrow’s FOMC.
MT: US producer prices spark inflation worries ahead of the Fed
Solid US PPI cements apprehension ahead of the US CPI & FOMC
MT: Slight risk bounce as US markets “clutch at straws”
It was a quiet night for markets devoid of any top-tier data or news flow ahead of key risk events next week (of US CPI, FOMC, ECB).
Markets Today: Bouncebackability
The Bank of Canada rose 50bps, the sixth consecutive increase, and took the target rate to 4.25%.
MT: No surprises from RBA but BoC on a knife-edge
The RBA increased interest rates by 25bp to 3.1% and continues to guide that “the Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead".
Markets Today: Fed’s terminal rate, heading higher?
WSJ’s Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos wrote overnight if CPI on Tuesday comes in hot then the Fed could consider another 50bp increase in February.
Markets Today: The Central Bank Dilemma – is it working?
The dollar was softer and US yields lower over the past week as markets both pared terminal rate pricing and priced in more cuts from mid 2023.
MT: What did markets like about Powell’s speech?
Markets hold, and more importantly extend yesterday’s post-Powell moves.
Markets Today: Powell slightly less than very hawkish
Markets were relatively muted ahead of Powell’s remarks with US yields and the Dollar were tracking a little higher and equities a little weaker.
MT: China calms down, European inflation eases
China vaccination push sees Hang Seng gains extended to 5%+ by the close
Markets Today: ECB minutes, little action, no spoilers
In a quitter session, relative to recent times, the risk positive vibes have extended into a third consecutive day with higher global equity markets, lower global rates and a weaker USD.
MT: Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil
The single biggest piece of market-moving economic news overnight has come via the US S&P Global PMIs, which slumped to 47.6 from 50.4, well below the 50.0 consensus.
Markets Today: One more pivot before Thanksgiving
US equity investors are certainly looking at the glass half full ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow with all major equity indices showing decent gains on the day.
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.
Markets Today: A rare dull day
Latest Fed speak from Boston Fed President Collins, suggests 75bps is still in play for December, noting markets price around 52bps for the December meeting.
Markets Today: Tighter than ever
US yields are higher and the dollar stronger in a modest and reversal of some of last week’s post CPI moves as Fed speakers remain stubborn that rates will continue to go higher to get to a level that is sufficiently restrictive.
MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?
Fed speakers were clear that a pause is not imminent and there is more to do, even as they may move at a slower pace, while stronger US retail sales numbers showed resilience in spending, providing some small counter to the burst of optimism after softer-than-expected US inflation data last week.
Markets Today: A step too far
It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD
Markets Today: A slight reality check
The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.
Markets Today: False Hopes?
US CPI, US political gridlock (maybe) and China covid policy tweaks...
Markets Today: A welcome relief
It has been a super risk positive night courtesy of a big downward surprise in the US CPI release.
Markets Today: Inflation Day
Republican ‘red wave’ failed to materialise, but still expect slim House majority
Markets Today: Downturns, mid-terms, no U-turns
The NAB Business Survey showed Conditions falling just one point to +22 to remain at very elevated levels, above the pre-pandemic highs for the series.
Markets Today: An end to China’s Zero COVID, or not?
Speculation about China reopening continues to add some market volatility with WSJ reporting Chinese leaders were considering reopening steps getting some notice.
MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again
Risk appetite soared on Friday as Chinese whispers swept markets last week that China had put together a ‘conditional re-opening plan’, reportedly mapping out a material re-opening by March 2023.
Markets Today: A Tale of Two Britains
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting continues to reverberate through markets.
MT: No Pivot from the Fed, but markets bounce about
FOMC Statement hints at reduced pace of tightening ahead…
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.
Markets Today: The Bank That Stops Inflation, eventually
NAB has pencilled in a 25bp hike, we also think there is a real risk that the RBA hikes by 50bps, and that this risk is higher than the 22% chance that markets are currently pricing.
MT: Will markets be spooked by scary central banks?
Big gains in US equities on Friday help extend rally for a second week
MT: ECB slowing to a crawl now? More recession and pivot talk
The ECB meeting was the big event for markets last night and as expected the Bank delivered a 75bps hike, but it sounded less committal on future rate hikes.
Markets Today: Cries of ‘Pivot!’ as BoC slows hikes
Yields are generally lower globally as the earlier run up in expectations for central bank tightening are pared a little further. A hike of ‘only’ 50bp from the BoC helping that sentiment.
MT: Why do so many expect the Fed to slow down?
Last night’s first Federal Budget under Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers contained no fireworks, falling fully in line with pre-Budget media briefings.
Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM
The UK has a new PM in Rishi Sunak, and gilts have rallied in response. UK 10yr gilt yields were 31bp lower at 3.75%. That’s 90bp off their peak of 4.64%, but still about 60bp above their level before the Truss Premiership.
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.
Markets Today: The battle for Britain
Terminal Fed Funds pricing have lifted to 5.00% by March 2023 from 4.92% last week and continue to price a 75bp hike at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and a 75% chance of a follow up 75bp at the December meeting.
Markets Today: Full reversal, for today
Yields rose to fresh cycle highs and risk appetite soured. US equities were lower, halting a 2-day rally despite relatively upbeat earnings from the likes of Netflix and United Airlines.
Markets Today: Tails(s) Wag Dog(s)
The selloff in bonds has seen a ‘reversal of the reversal’.
Markets Today: Brits Big U Turn, America Buys the Dip
Another big UK fiscal U-turn and positive earnings from BofA boosted global risk appetite last night.
Markets Today: Where does it end?
Rise in 1y ahead US inflation expectations spooks markets
MT: Massive swings as US inflation stays high
Volatile overnight session sees risk on, risk off then risk on again
Markets Today: Less jobs before Fed stops
UK markets remain at the epicentre of global market volatility
Markets Today: Don’t panic Mr. Bailey
Bailey in Washington says bond purchases will end as scheduled on Friday
Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.
Markets Today: Tight labour, hawkish banks, angry Putin
It was ‘good news is bad news’ for US Payrolls which were a touch better than expected and seen as too solid to support a pivot narrative.
Markets Today: Even less pivot hope, from Paris
In Australia there are two macro developments worth watching, Seek new job ads and Consumption imports in the August trade balance.
MT: Pivot talk killed by resilient services ISM read
Another volatile session in markets; US equities opened lower, not helped by anticipated news of a bigger oil cut supply agreement by OPEC +.
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.
MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in
A surprise U-turn by the UK government on the fiscal package and a weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) have driven a large fall in global yields.
Markets Today: No slowdown yet: Euro inflation and US core PCE
US equites fall on Friday to close out a 3rd consecutive negative quarter
MT: UK calmer, US stocks fall, yields rising, hawkish Fed/ECB
In a positive development the OBR will provide preliminary costings of the UK’s fiscal package on 7 October, instead of the previously signalled deadline of November 23 (the same day as the Budget).
Markets Today: UK ticked off by IMF, BoE goes back to QE
Bank of England has pledged to buy up to £5bn of longer dated gilts each day for up to 13 days (£65bn total) with a motive of protecting the UK pension industry.
MT: US dollar and bond yields continue to rise, till when?
UK rates continue to push higher
Markets Today: Unruly Britannia
Fallout from UK mini-budget continues.
Markets Today: The pound hammered, will it last?
Epicentre of current market turmoil shifts across the Atlantic to UK on Friday
Markets Today: Central bank overload
BoE, SNB and Norges Bank follow the Fed’s +75bps with 50bps, 75bps, 50bps respectively
Markets Today: 0.75% hike by the Fed, no bluff
Fed hikes 75bps as expected, looks for 125bps in ’22 then 25bps more in ‘23
MT: Fed to push higher, Putin pushing for referendums
A sourer tone took hold over the past 24 hours, with equities lower and haven currencies, including the dollar, stronger.
Markets Today: Fears the Fed will ‘keep at it’ for a while yet
US yields continued to push higher ahead of the FOMC
MT: Prepare for a volatile week of Banks and Holidays
Last week will be marked out as one of the more tumultuous for financial markets since the early days of the pandemic, says NAB's Ray Attrill.
Markets Today: Heading higher and taking longer
Volatility has come roaring back in Thursday’s offshore session.
Markets Today: The day after. No big bounce.
After recording hefty losses post the US CPI release on Tuesday, US equity markets closed with modest gains.
Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet
Today’s podcast Overview Rumours of inflation’s demise much exaggerated US CPI shocks to the upside: stocks, bonds take fright USD bounces back, AUD and NZD both down by more than 2% Next week’s Fed debate now seen to be between 75 and 100bps (83bps priced) German ZEW survey readings slumps while US NFIB Business Optimism […]
Markets Today: The risk of rising risk sentiment
Positive risk sentiment ahead of US CPI tonight.
Markets Today: Fed still pushing, BoE pushes back
Risk appetite improves despite hawkish Fed talk
9 September 2022 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates
It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation
Markets Today: High hopes of smaller hikes
A volatile night where earlier price action in Asia was largely reversed.
Markets Today: More work for Fed, UK’s massive Truss Fund
A broad rise in core global yields has been the big news overnight, fuelled by a better-than-expected US ISM report and news UK PM Truss is planning a huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus.
MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.
Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment
A goldilocks payrolls report failed to support risk assets on Friday, with equities and the USD quickly reversing on news that Russia was not restarting gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline
2 September 2022 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
MT: Will strong jobs numbers add to the Fed’s battle?
The bond sell-off shows no signs of abating with a stronger than expected US ISM Manufacturing helping to drive the US 10yr yield up.
Markets Today: Euro inflation hits new high
August has been a terrible month for balance fund investors with no diversification gains from holding a portfolio of equities and bonds.
Markets Today: More good news, that’s actually bad news
Goldman’s noted inflation could hit 22.4% y/y in the UK in early 2023 if gas prices don’t moderate and if there is little in the way of cost of living relief.
Markets Today: Aussie yields push higher
Following a negative lead from Asia, US and EU equities have begun the new week on the back foot.
This morning’s happy birthday call
After clocking 5.5 million podcast plays and 15,000 daily listeners, NAB’s Morning Call is celebrating six years of market highlights, with even more expert analysis to come.
Podcast
Markets Today: Investors respond to Powell comments
Fed chair Jay Powell’s address to the Kansas Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday was short and as far as equity market investors were concerned, bitter not sweet.
Markets Today: Peering into Jackson hole
Another day spent in anticipation of Powell’s speech tonight
Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe
Another night devoid of top-tier data or news flow. The past week has been a bit like Waiting for Godot with markets apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
MT: Business activity falls, but not enough to slow the Fed
Composite PMI sub-50 everywhere in the world bar UK; US worst of all.
Markets Today: European gas prices push ever higher
Markets are apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday
Markets Today: Shopping to the very end
NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.
Markets Today: Fed still trying to show they won’t give in
Following yesterday’s FOMC Minutes overnight we’ve heard from FOMC members wanting the Funds Rate up to 3.75-4.0% this year and questioning why you’d want to drag rate rises out into next year.
Markets Today: UK’s sticker shock inflation drives caution
In Australia, wages data for the 3 months to May disappointed most forecasters, though the result was in line with the RBA August SoMP (and NAB) forecast.
AMW: Hot inflation, what does this mean for CPI?
This week we expand on the hot inflation reads seen in the NAB Business Survey and what this may mean for CPI pressures in Australia, particularly for Q3.
Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ
After a negative start, US equities managed to end the day in positive territory supported by better than expected earnings reports from retailers.
Markets Today: Slow boat from China
Oil prices have fallen to their lowest since early February 2022 with falls of around 4% in part due to weaker China demand.
MT: A positive outlook, apart from the downturn
Equities continued their relentless rise, brushing off the inflation expectations data and hawkish Fed rhetoric
Markets Today: Not convinced by the Fed
The San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly warned it is too early to ‘declare victory’ over inflation.
Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?
It was all about US CPI overnight with markets reacting sharply to a lower than expected print with Equity and FX markets taking the CPI miss as a positive signal, taking some pressure off the Fed and a sign that inflation has peaked.
Markets Today: Inflation Day
There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.
Markets Today: Markets in Limbo
China is continuing its military drills around Taiwan, but that hasn’t impacted markets apart from gold (+0.7% to 1,787.61) retaining some slight geopolitical risk premium.
Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.
Markets Today: Uncertainty reigns, except in Britain.
As widely expected, the BoE lifted the cash rate by 50bps and retained the option to act forcefully in the future, the Bank now officially sees a recession in the horizon.
MT: The quick path to credible disinflation and other stories
A few hours on from Nancy Pelosi leaving Taiwan and markets have almost forgotten she ever came. Equity market have recovered their poise, a tech sector rally seeing the NASDAQ close at its highest level since 4 May.
MT: Pelosi in Taiwan, Fed nowhere near almost done
In Australia, the RBA met yesterday and raised the official cash rate by 50bps to 1.85% as expected, the third consecutive 50bps increase to be at its highest level since April 2016.
MT: Recession signs, RBA to hike, grains from Odessa
Data releases over the past 24 hours have provided further evidence the global economy is slowing. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI confirmed that China’s reopening rebound is over.
MT: No inflation slowdown, just wishful thinking
US economic data on Friday underscored the inflation challenge facing the Fed
MT: When is a recession not really a recession?
ECB’s Visco says “there is a risk of a recession” and that ECB policy can’t drive down gas prices.
Markets Today: Fed hikes 75bp, no forward guidance
The Fed delivered a unanimous 75bp hike as widely anticipated.
Livestock in focus
Podcast: Livestock solutions 101 - to help take advantage of a strong outlook.
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MT: Shares down, consumers change focus
More price increases are likely for food and grocery. If they continue to rise in Q3 and Q4, it is hard to see US core inflation numbers moderate sufficiently for the Fed to pivot.
Markets Today: Then there was one (turbine)
Kremlin confirms 20% cut of gas to Europe from Wednesday. Gas up 9%
Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA
A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.
Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero
The ECB hiked rates by a more-than-expected 50bps, taking the deposit rate back to 0% and ending its negative interest rate policy that has been in place since 2014
MT: Gas will trickle, Draghi will go, ECB will hike
Draghi’s government looks set to fall after three key parties failed to support him in a confidence vote which could complicate the ECB plans to deliver details on its new anti-fragmentation tool.
Markets Today: Markets set for a tougher ECB
ECB now seen hiking by 50bps tomorrow and then again in September
Markets Today: Gas to Europe unlikely this week
Oil is the standout mover, Brent +$4.50 and WTI crude +$4.60 on reports Saudi Arabia won’t be pumping any more oil
Markets Today: A Good Friday but a crunch week for Europe
Risk sentiment rallied on Friday with a better than expected US retail sales print and positive earnings from Citigroup lifting equities
Markets Today: Aussies Take Up Jobs as Draghi Tries to Quit
Australian employment data yesterday was showed a tighter labour market than the RBA had been expecting with the unemployment rate plummeting four tenths to 3.5% , a new 48-year low.
Markets Today: US Inflation rises, everything is in play
Bank of Canada surprises with ‘front-loaded’ 100bps rate rise
Markets Today: Freaking out over inflation
Risk off again overnight as recession fears intensify
MT: China flares up, Putin flexes more, US Dollar higher
Risk off ahead of a big week for data, partly driven mainly by China virus news
MT: Healthy jobs data bad news for the economy
US June non-farm payroll employment 372k vs. 265k expected.
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope, except for Boris
Risk sentiment improved over the past 24 hours.
Markets Today: Significant risk, still?
Higher US yields together with a further drop in the EUR sees the USD in DXY terms now at its highest since September 2002.
MT: Oil Dives, Bonds Rally and Recession Fears grow
Brent oil prices are down 17% since 14 June and have the potential to drive some welcome relief on headline inflation prints.
Markets Today: Australia, faring better than most
Europe remains stuck in the middle between the Russia/Ukraine crisis and a weakening global economy
Markets Today: Independence Day: Recession Resurgence
After a dismal first half, US equities start H2-22 with a positive tone
Markets Today: Understanding how little we understand
Core global yields have been the big market movers overnight with European bonds leading the decline in yields.
Markets Today: Less US confidence, tough talking ECB
Weaker US consumer confidence dents equities
Markets Today: Heading for a choppy end to Q2
US equity markets have begun the new week on the back foot with a clear lack of conviction.
Markets Today: Is bad news good news these days?
It was a great day for US stocks on Friday, with two-thirds of the mid-month sell-off now retraced.
Markets Today: Unconditional commitment, come what may
Despite softer PMIs and still-hawkish messaging from the Fed, US equities managed to turn around intraday.
Markets Today: Powell admits recession is possible
Recession or hard landing fears have taken a firmer hold on most markets in the past 24 hours.
Markets Today: Brighter days ahead
Some relief in equities with a strong bounce back from last week’s decline
Markets Today: Is the RBA preparing to go harder?
The RBA is front and centre in local markets this morning.
Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric
US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.
Markets Today: Markets go cuckoo as the Swiss clock a half percent hike
The Bank of England rose rate by 25bps and left its options wide open on future moves
Markets Today: A big step to the soft landing few believe will happen
Fed delivers 75bps rate rise, sees 50 or 75 most likely at next meeting
Markets Today: The day before the dots
Ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting we have seen an increase in market volatility across Equity, Rates and FX.
Markets Today: Markets Panic after US inflation surprise
A hot US CPI report and signs of inflation expectations de-anchoring on Friday has seen yields surge, risk assets sell off, and recession talk rise.
Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial
Announcing the end of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as of July 1, the ECB also pre-announced a 25bps rise in interest rates out of its July meeting with a further rise planned out of the Sept meeting.
Markets Today: Oil jumps, shares fall, inflation forecasts worsen
Rise in oil prices fuels inflationary concerns and the need for central banks to increase their hawkishness.
Markets Today: RBA, far from business as usual
RBA surprises (most) for second month running with 50bps Cash Rate rise to 0.85%
Markets Today: Rates jump, Boris’ near miss, RBA today
Yields rose notably in what was a quiet night for data and events.
Markets Today: Get ready for RBA, ECB and US CPI
Markets took the strong US payroll gains on Friday as affirming the near-term path for continued Fed tightening.
Markets Today: More oil, weaker jobs growth. Equities live on hope.
A positive day for risk sentiment ahead of US Payrolls tonight on no new news
Markets Today: Rates boosted as US data support aggressive Fed hikes
Reaction to a strong set of US data releases has been the main story overnight
Markets Today: EU sanctions, more in the pipeline?
Inflation is back in focus with European inflation at its highest ever level of 8.1% y/y helping rates extend yesterday’s selloff.
Markets Today: German inflation concerns, but equity markets refuse to freak out
Brent oil recorded its 8-consecutive day of price increases, supported by expectations of a China reopening in addition to the expected EU Russian oil ban.
Markets Today: A piggy bank backed recovery
After having moved briefly into bear market territory the previous Friday, last Friday saw the S&P500 up by its largest weekly gain so far this year.
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Markets Today: Equities and bonds markets divided
US equities had a strong night with the S&P500 +2.0% and NASDAQ 2.7%.
Markets Today: Markets accept rate hikes if they tame inflation
The market found some relief on the notion that the FOMC Minutes revealed a broad consensus for 50bps hikes in June and July and the possibility for a pause later in the year.
Markets Today: Markets Snap Out of It
Monday’s upbeat sentiment was short-lived with falls in equities and yields overnight.
Markets Today: Hope springs eternal, well, for today anyway
A more positive risk backdrop begins the new week. US equities are higher, the S&P500 up 1.9%, extending a turnaround after dipping into bear market territory intraday on Friday.
Markets Today: New Australian government, same global concerns
The S&P500 falls into bear market terrain Friday before late day pull-up
Markets Today: Who can slow down the slowdown?
Although employment growth disappointed yesterday, and along with wages data from earlier in the week, remains consistent with a rate rise of 25bp by the RBA in June.
Markets Today: Equities bomb as investors are reminded of inflation
The S&P500 high to low fall since the early January high puts it down 19% year to date and although not officially in bear market territory yet, looks to be only a matter of time.
Markets Today: China reopening, Americans shopping, Brits working
The UK's unemployment rate fell to it's lowest level since 1974 and along with a further pickup in average earnings growth, now see money markets pricing 125bps of BOE rate hikes by December.
Markets Today: Markets tossed back and forth in a sea of uncertainty
The biggest news overnight is commodities, oil prices are up, which threatens to prolong the inflation narrative.
Markets Today: One day when fears eased, for a bit
US Consumer Sentiment fell further than expected to be at its lowest level since August 2011 and with consumer confidence so low, the risk of recession is rising.
Markets Today: A world of worry
Risk assets remained out of favour as concerns over inflation and recession risk continued to dominate.
Markets Today: US inflation numbers hit shares, bond markets more restrained
Another volatile session in markets with an upward surprise in the April US inflation data release adding an extra layer of uncertainty
Markets Today: A momentary lapse of reason
Decline in inflation expectations drive core global bond yields lower with further fall in oil prices helping the move.
Markets Today: Stocks dive over fears of the perfect storm
The ongoing theme of mounting growth concerns against a backdrop of central bank tightening is continuing to drive market movements.
Markets Today: Are markets running scared?
The current debate in Markets is whether the Fed would be willing to let the economy slip into recession to tame inflation.
Markets Today: Market whiplash as sentiment takes a hit
Inflation is now forecast to peak at over 10% this year in the UK
Markets Today: Powell knocks mega-rise prospects on the head
Powell comments that 75bps isn’t something the FOMC is actively considering and that 50bps is on the table for the next couple of meetings
Markets Today: RBA loses a little patience
The RBA yesterday increased the cash rate target by 25bp to 0.35% and said it will do what is necessary to return inflation to the band
Markets Today: Breaking the Three Percent Barrier
US 10-year Treasuries have just breached the psychological 3% barrier for the first time since late November 2018 in what has been a further bear steepening of the US curve
Markets Today: The week central banks get serious
The NASDAQ recorded its worst monthly performance in more than a decade.
Markets Today: A fall in US GDP doesn’t signify recession, yet
A wild ride in FX markets over the past 24 hours
Markets Today: RBA will hike next week
News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.
Markets Today: Russia turns off gas for Poland and Bulgaria
The World Bank has warned the war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s (referencing the 1973 oil embargo).
Markets Today: Front end Fed and China’s quest for the impossible
There’s been a strong risk-off sentiment to the start of the week.
Markets Today: European bond yields rise sharply
Markets are a little easier to understand today. Bond yields are back on the rise, given inflation expectations and more hawkish rhetoric from central banks.
Markets Today: A temporary change in direction
Bond yields have fallen sharply overnight, but that doesn’t mean inflation expectations are going away, or does it?
Markets Today: Bond yields and equities both rise sharply
It’s not something that will continue for long, but US bond yields have risen sharply today, and so have equities. Which one will give in first?
Markets Today: A whiff of moderation as Fed hurtles to 50 point hike
Global yields continued their March higher over the Easter period with the US 10yr yield hitting a fresh cycle of 2.88%, its highest since 2018.
Markets Today: Big hikes, more inflation, but bonds settle down
Despite 50 basis point hikes by the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ over the last 24 hours, bond yields haven’t moved a great deal.
Markets Today: A very slight glimmer of hope on inflation
US inflation rose as expected, but there’s still been a reaction in the bond markets.
Markets Today: Stocks hit as yields rise higher still
Bond yields continue to climb with risk assets now coming under pressures.
Markets Today: Rates push ever higher as food prices soar
No respite from rising Treasury yields – 10s up another 4bps to 2.70% +32bps on week further hurting tech. stocks/NASDAQ vs other indices and boosting USD DXY index to 100.
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Markets Today: Consumers still spending despite all the hike talk
The reaction to the Fed minutes early yesterday morning continued to dominate markets overnight.
Markets Today: Fed to slash balance sheet sooner rather than later
FOMC Minutes reveal plans for much faster and more aggressive balance sheet reduction than 2017-2019
Markets Today: No patience left at RBA
RBA’s April meeting yesterday left policy on hold at 0.1% but underwent a substantial rewrite to the post meeting statement.
Markets Today: Crimes, curves and patience
Talk of Europe restricting Russian oil and gas has re-surfaced, driving oil prices higher
Markets Today: Fed ready for a big move, ECB staring inflation in the face
Eurozone inflation printed a new record high with ECB hawks calling for policy action.
Markets Today: Biden dips into reserves, Putin demands Roubles from today
The main news overnight is the US decision to release 1m barrels a day for 6 months from their strategic petroleum reserve
Markets Today: Peace hopes fade, European inflation soars
ECB Lagarde warning of supply and uncertainty shocks from the Ukraine war.
Markets Today: Europe boosted by peace hopes
Last night’s Federal Budget contained few surprises and won’t be a big influence on markets this morning.
Markets Today: The divided story of rate expectations
It has been a nervous start to the new week with big moves seen in rates, oil and FX markets.
Markets Today: Ditching bonds like they are going out of fashion
Economists outdo each other for Fed hikes with Citi calling four 50 basis point hikes back to back
Markets Today: American markets doing well because they are not Europe
Investors are showing a preference for US equities with all three major indices enjoying a decent rebound after yesterday’s decline.
Markets Today: Markets support the Fed’s balancing act
Yields continue to rise with US 10yr now +9.6bps to 2.39%.
Markets Today: Powell talking faster than fast
US bond yields march higher pre and post Powell speech
Markets Today: Peace hopes and understanding
AUD/USD closed above 0.74 for the first time this year, cementing its position as the world’s strongest G10 currency year to date.
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Markets Today: BoE far more cautious than the Fed
Russia makes USD bond payments, adding to a sense of hope on Russia/Ukraine
Markets Today: A far from transitory Fed
US Fed lifts cash rate 25bps, as expected
Markets Today: China hit by COVID and Russian relationship
A switch of market focus from Ukraine to China (and Hong Kong)
Markets Today: Will China pick a side?
Yields have soared even as commodity prices have fallen.
Markets Today: Getting close to the edge
Friday was a day of contrasting fortunes for US and EU equity markets.
Markets Today: ECB taper talk, while Lavrov tells-tales
The ECB has surprised markets with an accelerated QE unwinding plan
Markets Today: Risk on, but so too is the war
War still rages, but Eurozone stocks and EUR roar back to life
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope
Markets remain volatile unable to confidently price implications from the news flow given the complex state of the global economy
Markets Today: Day 12 brought more volatility, the search for safety
Germany rejects proposed US, EU embargo on Russian oil imports
Markets Today: Oil keeps increasing, Aussie rises above the confusion
Risk sentiment was hammered on Friday with sharp falls in stocks and a large rally in bonds
Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices
EU considering further measures against Russia overnight which would allow them to impose tariffs and quotas to Russian exports, further disrupting global trade.
Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting
Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories
Markets Today: Ukraine war ratchets up risk
Risk sentiment craters (S&P500 -1.3%) as the Russia/Ukraine situation has no sign of ending
Markets Today: Moderate contagion, so far
News from Ukraine remain bleak with Russia Ukraine talks yielding no resolution while fighting rages on.
Markets Today: A swift response to the Ukrainian crisis
Markets are opening up to headlines that ‘Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on ‘special alert’.
Markets Today: Putting the Squeeze on Putin’s ‘Squalid Venture’
Biden announces range of sanctions on Russia, but not including SWIFT.
Markets Today: Don’t Panic!
Ukraine/Russia tensions continue, no further military escalation apart from cyberattacks
Markets Today: Biden’s sanctions first step against Putin’s ‘invasion’
Restrained market reactions so far (bar oil) to Russia-Ukraine developments…
Markets Today: Putin supports Donbass powder keg
Geopolitical tension lifted overnight with President Putin formally recognising the two Ukrainian breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and signing aid and cooperation agreements.
Markets Today: More war talk adds to a storm of uncertainty
US President Biden is convinced Russia has decided to attack Ukraine
Markets Today: Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words
Yesterday’s glimpses of risk off vibes have intensified over the past 24 hours with Russia Ukraine tensions the main culprit.
Markets Today: Oil rising whilst Putin sits tight
The standout data point overnight was US Retail Sales, which came in well above consensus expectations.
Markets Today: Risk-on as Putin backs-off (a bit)
President Putin spoke to the media saying that "of course" Russia does not want war in Europe, but then added that his security concerns must be addressed and taken seriously .
Markets Today: Putin on the brink, Fed ‘out of sync’
The S&P is back in the red (-0.5%) following reports of satellite images being circulated purportedly showing Russian troops leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions.
Markets Today: High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?
Russia/Ukraine headlines weighed heavily on risk sentiment late Friday with the US again warning Russia could invade at any time.
Markets Today: High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?
US inflation comes in hot again with core measures showing wides-spread inflation pressures
Markets Today: Bond sell-off on hold ahead of US inflation numbers
Lots of central bank speak from Fed, BoC, ECB and BoE today
Markets Today: China pushes back green agenda, UK heading for recession?
The key question as yields march higher is how high can they go in this cycle?
Markets Today: Markets still guessing the path of inflation
Inflation and related central bank thinking remains by far the bigger influence on market sentiment
Markets Today: US kept working through Omicron peak
US economy brushes Omicron aside with a strong January Labour market report
Markets Today: Tight squeeze or a gentle touch
European yields soar as ECB pivots more hawkish – Lagarde fails to rule out hiking in 2022
Markets Today: A tale of two central banks
Equities recovery continued overnight with both European and US markets extending recent gains.
Markets Today: Markets still at odds with RBA and ECB. Who’s right?
The US economy is travelling with some momentum along side a tight labour market and still elevated inflationary pressures
Markets Today: RBA to join the rate-rise race?
Bostic retracts his 50bps comment, states “is not my preferred policy action” for March
Markets Today: Aussie dollar loses break point
AUD below 0.70 to lowest since mid-July 2020 – month end could be a factor
Markets Today: The aftermath of the Fed
Shares attempts a recovery but US equities back in negative territory in afternoon trade
Markets Today: Fed confirms move to post-pandemic policy
Hawkish hold by the FOMC/Powell sees yields rip higher and equities reverse earlier gains
Markets Today: Ukraine fears creates a risk off sell off
Geopolitics has had an influence on markets today, but the influence of the Fed should still not be underestimated.
Markets Today: Turnaround in bonds ahead of FOMC this week
Bond yields retreated at the end of last week even though the assumption remains that the Fed will signal a March hike.
Markets Today: Fed ready to fight inflation on two fronts
Latest flurry ahead of January 25-26 FOMC suggests March rates lift off expected.
Markets Today: Looking ahead to a better 2022
US and EU equities rebound overnight with mostly positive Omicron news lifting sentiment while company specific news have also helped the cause.
Markets Today: Europe’s cold cold Christmas
Commodity market news overnight is a fresh surge in European gas prices
Markets Today: A very cautious Christmas
Expect a cautious start to the week with the Netherlands going into lockdown on Sunday
Markets Today: BoE lifts rates despite everything
Against the consensus view for an unchanged outcome, the BoE unexpectedly also raised rates by 15bps to 0.25%.
Markets Today: Fed’s turbo taper and dots surprise
The FOMC delivered a hawkish tilt for Christmas with the Fed dot plot showing three rate hikes in 2022 while also accelerating the taper profile.
Markets Today: It’s all about dots and jabs
US PPI beat expectations fuelling hawkish FOMC expectations
Markets Today: A little more caution on a lot less news
Slight risk aversion to start the week with equities down, yields down and US dollar up
Markets Today: UK empties the glass, but markets still half full
Limited market reactions to ‘as expected’ US CPI – 6.8% headline highest since June 1982
Markets Today: Transmission and inflation – the two concerns
Risk tone deteriorates in front of US CPI tonight, lack of positive new news on Omicron
Markets Today: Banks to sit on their hands, UK to cover their faces
After a solid run in the previous two days, equities are taking a breather with European shares closing lower amid concerns over the need for a new round of covid restrictions.
Markets Today: Omicron’s not so bad, markets hope
Markets continue to travel with optimism that Omicron will not have the severity of prior variants in terms of health outcomes, even if it is more transmissible.
Markets Today: China and Omicron hopes drive a bounce back
Positive Omicron reports coming from South Africa alongside an encouraging preliminary assessment from Dr Fauci over the weekend boosted sentiment with overnight news of policy easing in China, an additional bonus.
Markets today: Too tight too quickly?
As we start a new week, Omicron headlines were positive on Saturday which may add to some stabilisation in risk sentiment.
Markets Today: There’s a certain uncertainty
Risk sentiment recovered overnight with virus/vaccine news flow being net positive
Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
The US CDC has just identified the first case of Omicron in the United States – joining the UK, Switzerland and Brazil overnight – at a time when US infection rates of the delta variant had already started creeping back up.
Markets Today: Who are you and what have you done with Jerome Powell?
It has been a volatile session overnight driven by differing headlines around vaccine efficacy, capped off by very significant hawkish tilt by US Fed Chair Powell in Senate Testimony.
Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
Global markets have seen a modest retracement of many of last Friday’s violent ‘risk-off’ moves, with equities higher in Europe, so too US government yields up, as too is oil, but in all cases to nowhere near Friday’s closing levels.
Markets Today: Did the markets overreact to Omicron news?
Omicron uncertainty triggers a rethink on the global economic outlook
Markets Today: Talking turkey on central bank thinking
BoE’s Bailey still guiding that rates will need to be higher ahead of the Dec MPC meet.
Markets Today: Is the US getting too hot to handle?
Dovish Fed Official (Daly) flips to looking at accelerating tapering and to hikes in 2022
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Markets Today: Happy tales from Euroland
Eurozone PMIs spring upside surprise, supporting EUR and holding USD in check
Markets Today: US dollar rises as Powell stays put
Ahead of a speech by President Biden later today on the economy and inflation, we got news that Jay Powell is to be re-appointed to a second term as Fed chair.
Markets Today: A speedy taper and European tantrums
Rising COVID infections around Europe and news that Austria will go into lockdown rattled markets on Friday with 10y Bunds leading a decline in core global bond yields.
Markets Today: US continues a slow recovery, Europe’s mounting issues
Fed speak was not market moving, but it is worth noting it is mostly turning slightly hawkish.
Markets Today: Caution after UK inflation surprise. Will Aussie wages ratchet up?
Some in the market were positioned for an upside surprise in Australian wages data, but that wasn’t forthcoming, with the data bang in line with expectations at 2.2% y/y, back to pre-pandemic levels.
17 November 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
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Markets Today: Tills ring in the USA, jobs bounce back in the UK
Trio of strong data with US Retail, US Industrial Production, and UK Jobs all beating
Markets Today: Europe’s caution, China’s hope
Data, supply and hawkish CB talk push core yields higher
Markets Today: US facing higher prices, more quits, falling sentiment
US stocks had a positive day on Friday, so further recouping some of last Tuesday and Wednesday’s pre and post CPI weakness
Markets Today: Have a little faith
The US has been out for Veterans Day, though stock markets have been open and have recouped a little of their pre and post US CPI losses
11 November 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
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Markets Today: Eye-popping inflation doesn’t faze the Fed
US CPI jumped in October with annual readings printing at new multi-decade highs, the broad base acceleration in prices challenges the transitory narrative and increases the pressure on a patient Fed.
Markets Today: Markets out of steam on inflation day
Risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse with the first S&P down day in nine.
Markets Today: Taking a breather
US equities close slightly higher while Europe starts the new week on the back foot.
Markets Today: Bond markets wrapped up in a ball of confusion
There was a mixed market reaction to the better than expected US Payrolls print on Friday with equities up, yields down and the USD lower.
Markets Today: Bank of England Backs Down
The BoE shocked markets overnight with its thunderous silence.
Markets Today: Tighter but taking time
No surprises from the FOMC in its formal policy pronouncement, the Fed announcing a November start to the QE tapering process at the as-expected pace of $15bn per month.
Markets Today: Central banks still grappling with what to do about inflation
Global yields fall at the short end in the wake of the RBA’s dovishness yesterday.
Markets Today: RBA more uncertain than the cup winner
Stock mostly firmer at start of new month, Europe faring better than US where S&P 500 ends +0.2%
Markets Today: Going bond crazy
US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.
Markets Today: Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again
US equity continue to march to their own beat, oblivious to softer data releases and volatility in rates markets driven by Central Bank policy uncertainty.
Markets Today: Going bond crazy
A volatile night for rates markets with short-end rates shooting up driven by hawkish signals from yesterday’s Aussie Q3 CPI and Bank of Canada meeting, but longer-end rates tumbling after the UK budget showed a sharply lower debt profile.
27 October 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
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Markets Today: Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high
US and European equities have ended the day in positive territory, supported by solid earnings reports and better than expected US data releases.
Markets Today: Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend
Inflation fears continued to build amid the backdrop of a strong Q3 earnings season which is showing firms have some pricing power to pass on higher transitory inflation
Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal
Friday’s main economic events, namely the ‘flash’ PMIs, tell us that there is little reason to fear stagnation, for the time being at least, given still elevated levels for all readings across Europe and the US.
Markets Today: Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high
The biggest moves across Global Markets have been seen in the US rates market, where break-even inflation rates have jumped by a full 10 basis points at both 5 and 10 years.
Markets Today: The inflation debate heats up
The S&P 500 has extended its winning streak to a sixth day with mixed earnings and a subdued Fed Beige report not enough to derail the positive vibes
Markets Today: Earnings anything but a damp squid
If the market is rethinking how soon the Fed might lift rates, there was nothing from incoming Fed speakers overnight to support this view.
19 October 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
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Markets Today: Inflation and slowdowns. Isn’t there a word for that?
Although the US is less exposed to the energy crunch, supply bottle necks are still affecting its economy, particularly in sectors there is a shortage of workers, raw materials, and chips.
Markets Today: Shares rising despite everything.
Inflation fears are clearly lifting, with the latest driven by the rise in energy prices.
Markets Today: Have inflation concerns peaked?
The sun has been shining on risk sentiment, commodity prices and commodity currencies overnight
14 October 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
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Markets Today: Wages, fuel, supply chains and a not-so-transitory inflation number
With markets having aggressively pushed Fed pricing into 2022, it is likely there is some thought that such a tightening will weigh on demand earlier.
Markets Today: IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation
The ‘Quit Rate’ is the highest on record, reflective of the ease which workers are switching jobs, in part at least for better pay or conditions elsewhere.
Markets Today: Energy prices rise further, central banks more hawkish
The rise in energy prices is fuelling concerns that the transitory lift in inflation seen in the wake of the pandemic may prove to be longer lasting.
Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention
US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.
Markets Today: Everyone seems happy to kick the can
Risk asset have enjoyed a solid rebound overnight following news that the US Senate had reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December.
Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?
Words from politicians of various stripes have gone a little way to alleviating two of the major concerns currently plaguing global markets, namely the ongoing energy crisis centred on Europe and the looming deadline for lifting or scrapping the US debt ceiling
Markets Today: Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates
European and US equities rebounded overnight with a stronger than expected US Services ISM supporting the view that it’s all good, notwithstanding the ongoing rise in energy prices and supply bottlenecks.
5 October 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
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Markets Today: Hospital
US equities finish last week strongly with positive trial results from Merck's Covid treatment drug helping sentiment.
Markets Today: China secures fuel at all costs
US equity losses accelerate into Thursday’s close; worse month for S&P500 since March 2020
Markets Today: Markets calmer, but US budget deadline looms
Equities made an unconvincing “buy the dip” bounce as yields consolidated their recent moves.
Markets Today: Dangerous Powell, markets run for cover
Fed talk overnight tilted hawkish with the Fed’s Bullard advocating for two hikes in 2022 and also flagging the case for balance sheet unwind after tapering ends.
28 September 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
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Markets Today: Is reflation back? Commodities push even higher
10yr Treasuries spend time above 1.50%. Neither equities nor USD seem to care….
Markets Today: Add the US debt ceiling to the list of concerns
Week ends quietly after Evergrande/FOMC related volatility earlier in the week
Markets Today: Optimism. But why?
BoE meeting more hawkish than expected, seen opening door to hikes by year’s end.
Markets Today: Not yet, but soon says the Fed
Fed tees up November taper announcement, subject to reasonably good Sep. employment report
Markets Today: Waiting on Evergrande, the Fed & oil inventories
US equities fail to bounce after Monday, with the S&P500 down -0.1 ahead of the FOMC.
Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears
A torrid day for Hong Kong’s hang Seng index yesterday, driven by sharp fall in property sector stocks and led by a 16% fall in Evergrande ahead of Thursday’s bond coupon payment day, spilled over to the global arena on Monday with equities down sharply, bond yields lower and safe haven currencies in the ascendancy.
Markets Today: Just another cautious Monday
Caution is in the air ahead of the FOMC this week where market moves on Friday tiled towards a mildly hawkish outcome.
Markets Today: Lots of movement, not much direction
There have been quite a lot of moving parts to the price action overnight.
Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?
The lift in equities appears to be a case of ‘buy the dip’ with an absence of any positive news flow apart from the very second-tier Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey which surprised sharply to the upside.
Markets Today: Has US inflation peaked?
The market was looking for an ease in US CPI readings and in the end the figures delivered a bit more than expected
Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down
It has been a slow start to the week with little in the way of market moves outside of commodities. Markets overall appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI figures tonight and the FOMC next week . The S&P500 swung between small gains and losses to finish up 0.2% after five consecutive days of losses, helped along by energy stocks.
Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious
After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy
Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering
As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.
Markets Today: Bank of Canada on pause, ECB unlikely to do the same
US equity markets slip for second day, bigger falls in Europe amid more cautious mood. NY Fed’s Williams re-enforces markets views post-Jackson Hole, August payrolls.
Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.
7 September 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
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Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks
US markets being out for the Labor Day holiday hasn’t prevented global equity markets forging ahead. The US dollar has recouped a little of its (further) losses seen post last Friday’s US payrolls report and since AUD and NZD have been the two biggest beneficiaries of USD slippage of late, no great surprise they have lost a little more than most other currencies overnight.
Markets Today: Far from substantial progress, but just a temporary setback?
US payrolls came in softer than the consensus (235k vs. 733k expected), but a soft print was widely expected given the weakness seen in high frequency indicators such as HomeBase. The surprise for markets was more on Average Hourly Earnings which were stronger than expected
3 September 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Only currencies making moves ahead of US jobs numbers
In what have been predictably quiet bond and equity markets ahead of US payrolls tonight, currencies are continuing to enjoy their week in the sun.
Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).
Markets Today: Falling production, higher prices turns sentiment around
Month end flows interrupt week-long USD depreciation trend but AUD and NZD have done enough work to suggest a base is now in after failing to take a hit from weak China PMI data.
31 August 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls
A quiet night with markets continuing to bask in the glow of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The explicit de linking of tapering to rate rises has allowed equity markets to rally, while yields have moved lower. The S&P500 rose 0.4% overnight and is up 1.3% since Jackson Hole on Friday.
Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence
The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.
Markets Today: Kabul blasts hit sentiment, markets hold for Powell’s taper talk
Cautiousness has crept back into markets on the eve of Jackson Hole. Twin suicide attacks outside of Kabul airport has seen 12 US service members killed along with at least 60 Afghans. Coming up today, Fed Chair Powell gives his key mark address at Jackson Hole.
Markets Today: High hopes keep getting higher
In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.
Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar
Another day of equity gains and commodities prices. Markets are still basking in the glow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine having received regulatory approval on Monday. China’s delta outbreak also appears to be under control with two consecutive days of no new domestic cases.
Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news
Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.
Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Mid-morning in Friday’s US trading day, Bob Kaplan said he may rethink his call for the Fed to quickly start to taper its $120 billion per month in bond purchases if it looks like the spread of the coronavirus delta variant is slowing economic growth. This didn’t have a big impact on bonds, but we can date the start of the run-up in US equity indices and a pull back in the USD to his comments hitting the screens, testament to the ongoing sensitivity the currency and risk markets are exhibiting to the question of when QE tapering starts.
Markets Today: Commodities fall, VIX jumps, Aussie hit hard as growth concerns rise
US equities recover into the close calming market sentiment. Spike in VIX and rotation into defensive/tech stock point to a cautionary tale. European equities cannot escape the negative vibes from Asia
19 July 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Central banks holding back
Following a fair amount of volatility in the immediate wake of the FOMC Minutes US equities are lower, bond yields and the USD are lower, the latter allowing the AUD some relief after posting a new year-to-date low of 0.7229 in the run up to the Minutes, but the gains are already proving hard to hold.
Markets Today: Will RBNZ still hike rates today, even in a lockdown?
The negative vibes from our APAC session extended overnight with softer than expected US data releases not helping the cause. US retail sales were broadly softer, and the NAHB housing market index also came in weaker than expected.
17 July 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
The much weaker than expected China data, lack of encouraging covid news over the weekend – no more so than in Australia – and the news out of Afghanistan which adds another dimension to ever-present geopolitical concerns (in this case, international terrorism) perennially cited as a risk to positive market sentiment – haven’t prevented the S&P 500 closing at a new record high.
Markets Today: Back to uncertainty
US consumer sentiment plunges to below pre-pandemic levels with yields tumbling (US 10yr -8.2bps), but equities steady to higher with the S&P500 +0.2% to a new record high. For bonds, the plunge in consumer sentiment is an amber signal for the near-term, which if realised in real activity may impact on the timing and form of tapering and puts the focus squarely on retail sales on Tuesday
Markets Today: On the road to nowhere
Quiet night but S&P 500 ekes out a third successive record daily close. Stronger than expected US PPI a reminder that supply chain disruptions are still with us.
Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it
US inflation moderates, taking the pressure down a notch and playing into the Fed’s transitory narrative. It’s no surprise to see yields and the USD lower in the wake. The US 10yr fell 1.5bps to 1.33%, though CPI was the catalyst for a larger fall after it reached an intra-day high of 1.3743%.
Markets Today: Will US CPI give markets the direction they are looking for?
US Senate passes $550bn Infrastructure bill as expected but still a road ahead for passage by House. No positive covid developments overnight, but markets behaving as though there were. New record high for Eurostoxx 50, S&P500 closes flat, NASDAQ pressured by higher bond yields.
Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed
Markets opened with a cautious mood to start the week , reflecting on both the stellar US payrolls report on Friday and the surge in the delta variant which has seen China tighten restrictions and Israel contemplate another lockdown. The Fed’s Bostic was the first voter to speak post payrolls, indicating that the Fed should taper after one or two more payroll prints.
Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.
Markets Today: Watch Germany go
The S&P500 (+0.6%) hit another record high ahead of US Payrolls later tonight. Payrolls of course key to the Fed’s decision on the timing and pace of tapering (see Coming Up for details). Market moves elsewhere were more limited
Markets Today: Jobs boost for NZ, whilst US jobs fail to pick up
Mixed US data and hawkish take on Fed Clarida shake markets. ADP is a big miss, US ISM a big hit.
Markets Today: A tale of two central banks, both focused on a strong recovery
The antipodean central banks are taking an optimistic view of the recovery with the RBA pushing ahead with its tapering of asset purchases (despite the protracted Sydney lockdown) and the RBNZ has as good as said the central bank will lift rates in August.
Markets Today: More caution on manufacturing undershoot
US equity markets have begun the new week in a tentative manner with a nervous feeling in the air. A slightly softer, but still elevated ISM print added fuel to peak growth concerns and the UST curve bull flattened.
Markets Today: Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?
Lots of economic data to digest on Friday but none of which had a major impact on markets, while Saturday’s China official PMI data showing a further (and bigger than expected) fall in its Manufacturing Index threatens to play with the grain of recent AUD underperformance.
Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks
US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.
Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
A couple of comments from the Fed chair during the post-FOMC meeting Statement have been responsible for most of the market price action, notably, Powell’s remarks “we’re some ways away from substantial progress on jobs” and that “the Fed is nowhere near considering raising rates”.
Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors
For the first time, we are now seeing contagion from the sell-off in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese shares, to global markets – the NASDAQ in particular, ending the day down 1.2% in front of the earnings results from Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.
Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.
Markets Today: High hopes, big concerns and fewer babies
Strong earnings continue to outweigh Delta concerns with the S&P500 reaching a new record high, So far 87% of companies reporting have beaten expectations and if maintained would be the strongest earnings beat since 2008.
Markets Today: Strong earnings, cautious ECB and NZ’s first day without QE
Monday’s delta blues are once again talking back-seat in driving markets, the winning streak in the major US stock indices extending to a third day as incoming quarterly earnings reports for the most part continue to beat expectations, the S&P500 closing within 0.4% of last Mondays record high.
Markets Today: Risk back on with rebound expectations
Strong earnings have swept away Delta concerns in the US with 85% of companies reporting so far beating expectations.
Markets Today: Markets Hit by the Delta Blues
Markets have dipped sharply on the back of rising COVID cases.
Markets Today: OPEC drip feeds more oil
The Aussie dollar is under pressure because of global market uncertainty over COVID says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast.
Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason
There’s more caution in the markets today, even though numbers out of Australia, the US and China were better than expected. There’s a bit of battle fatigue hitting the market says NAB’s David de Garis.
Markets Today: More inflation, RBNZ moves first
More inflation signals with the RBNZ moving towards rate rises. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there are no signs that other central banks will be following in a hurry.
Markets Today: Another US inflation surprise. Still transitory?
US inflation has surprised again, up even higher than last month. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the indications are that it’s still transitory.
Markets Today: Stocks high on earning hopes; times changing for ECB
Following a positive lead from Asia, US and EU equities have kick started the new week with a positive tone.
Markets Today: Delta’s day off
A swift turnaround in market sentiment on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill provides some of the reasons.
Markets Today: 2 percent or not 2 percent, that is the question
The ECB’S new strategy has driven the Euro higher in a market which has generally been driven down by COVID concerns. NAB’s David de Garis explains what’s changed in the ECB’s 2% inflation target.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 8 July 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: Fed minutes trumped by ECB strategy review
The FOMC minutes did little for cautious markets. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the outcome of the ECB’s Strategic Review should hold more interest.
7 July 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets cautious on numerous fronts; RBA focuses on data not dates
The RBA is focused on data not dates, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s Morning Call. It’s data from the US and Germany that’s added caution to markets overnight, along with rising concerns about China.
Markets Today: Freedom Day for the UK and D-Day for the RBA
What follows the QE2 in September? NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market is expecting a flexible target, but that we can expect a ripple of surprises from the RBA today.
Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks
The Fed will not see the need to act swiftly after Friday’s payrolls numbers, but it will be a different story for thew RBA tomorrow. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 2 July 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: The last day of treading water
Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.
Markets Today: Ignoring the talk, waiting for the facts
It’s been a scratchy session, says NAB’s David de Garis, as markets shy away from sharp moves ahead of Friday’s payrolls data from the US.
Markets Today: Confidence rising but so is the Delta strain
Reopening and vaccines are helping economies, but the Delta variant is still a concern for markets says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, explaining today’s sideways moves.
29 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Tody: Reflation retreats a little as virus spreads
Risk appetite retreats a little ahead of the non-farm payrolls on Friday and with the Delta strain delaying the reopening of economies, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland on today’s Morning Call podcast.
Markets Today: Lock down means no RBA lowdown
The impact of the latest lockdown and Biden’s stimulus backflip. NAB’s Ray Attrill on two bits of news for markets to respond to this morning.
25 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Biden whittles down infrastructure plan to win support
Equities driven higher by Biden’s infrastructure plan deal. NAB’s Gavin Friend says bond markets were unmoved by Fed speakers suggesting higher inflation for longer and rate rises sooner.
FX and your business podcast: 24 June 2021
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Markets Today: The crawl back is done, reflation takes over
Bond yields are back to where they were before the FOMC meeting, says NABs David de Garis, with the focus now back on the reflation trade.
Markets Today: Fed cools things down, words from the RBA later
The global reflation trade is not dead, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as Fed speakers help markets further unwind their response to last week’s FOMC.
22 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
Markets Today: Swift turnaround as markets rethink FOMC response
Last week’s post FOMC sell-off was overdone, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland on today’s Morning Call podcast, evidenced by a big reversal overnight. Although markets remain jittery.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar caught in the storm
The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week hitting a two-month high after the surprisingly bullish outlook from the Fed, but is the Aussie dollar paying too high a price?
FX and your business weekly podcast: 18 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: NZ GDP, Aussie employment both punch the lights out but currencies fall
The US dollar continued to rise yesterday, after the hawkish comments from the Fed.
Markets Today: Fed speeds up rate hike roadmap
At the FOMC meeting this morning the Fed upped their growth and inflation forecasts, with the dot plots pointing to rate rises as soon as 2023.
Markets Today: Retail sales numbers add to caution ahead of the FOMC
The FOMC meeting is tonight and markets are being cautious, with little movement in bonds or equities. A weaker than expected set of retail sales numbers has added to the uncertainty.
15 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Oil nudges higher
Oil has hit a two-year high.
Markets Today: Market unphased by US CPI
US CPI was a higher than expected but the Market seems to have taken it largely in its stride.
10 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Inflation – mixed signals and opinions
Bond yields have fallen further overnight, in some cases to levels not seen for several months.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 9 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: Markets going nowhere yet US job openings boom
Bond yields are pushing lower and market volatility is easing.
Markets Today: Goldilocks loses a little of her shine
If non-farm payrolls gave markets a Goldilocks moment on Friday then maybe markets are already starting to question whether it was exactly what was needed.
Markets Today: US jobs numbers hit the sweet spot
Not too good, not too bad, that seems to have been the market response to the non-farm payrolls numbers out of the US on Friday.
Markets Today: Taper torment
There was speculation that the Fed would taper sooner rather than later.
Markets Today: Beige Book highlights ‘brisk rise’ in input costs
If there’s one takeout from the Fed’s Beige Book overnight, aside from the continued improvement in the US recovery, it was the rising concern about input costs.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 2 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements
Markets Today: No surprises from the RBA
The RBA didn’t steer from its earlier stance that it was too soon to be looking at any changes in policy right now.
1 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: China wants to curb the Yuan & grow the family
The rising Yuan is clearly a concern for the PBoC who announced measures to tackle it, whilst Chinese authorities are now permitting families to have three children.
Markets Today: Month end comes early for some
It was an early start to month-end on Friday, with the US and UK off on holiday today.
Markets Today: More central bankers wanting to ease off the pedal
Three central bankers argued for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy overnight.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 26 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: RBNZ talks it up, Europe talks it down
The RBNZ surprised many yesterday by indicating there could be an interest rate rise as soon as next year.
26 May 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: China gets Yuan up on the dollar
The US dollar has fallen again with rises in the Euro and a shift up in the Yuan, but will it stick?
Markets Today: Low volumes, more risk, less inflation concern
Equities are back on the rise and bond yields are falling, slightly, as investors seem to have accepted the line of most central banks that inflation is only transitory.
Markets Today: Lagarde’s tapering reluctance
The Euro lost ground on Friday as President Lagarde refused to commit to any schedule for talking tapering.
Markets Today: Another turnaround Thursday
Equities bounced back in the US and Europe as markets re-evaluated the comments about the timing of tapering in this week’s FOMC minutes.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 19 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Fed taper talk pushes yields higher
The FOMC minutes gave away more than expected with the Fed suggesting it might be appropriate at some point to discuss a plan to adjust the pace of asset purchases if the economic recovery continues.
Markets Today: US dollar heading to 2018 lows
It’s been a mixed session for US equities overnight whilst bonds headed sideways.
18 May 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Uncertain markets change direction again
US shares fell as investors once again weighed up inflation concerns.
Markets Today: Inflation, confidence and retail
Share markets are riding high again in the US despite a triple whammy of disappointing reports.
14 May 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Fewer jobless claims
USA equities came bouncing back after yesterday’s sharp response to the higher than anticipated CPI numbers.
Markets Today: The inflation shock we were warned about
US CPI numbers came in on the high side and markets have reacted swiftly with equities falling sharply and the bond sell-off pushing Treasury yields up.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 15 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements. This week's podcast includes a focus on inflation and FX implications .
Markets Today: Vertigo and inflation fears
The risk off mood is being driven by increasing inflation concerns.
Markets Today: Inflation, hugs and shrinking deficits
Inflation expectations continues to influence markets.
Markets Today: Does the US jobs shortfall vindicate the Fed’s cautious approach?
US non-farm payrolls markedly undershot market expectations on Friday with just 266k more people in work versus the expectation of close to one million.
Markets Today: Let’s not get carried away
The Bank of England has upped its forecasts for the growth of the UK economy this year – from 5 percent a few months ago, up to 7.25 percent.
Markets Today: Will the BoE taper before the Fed?
The Fed’s board continues to talk down the prospect of tapering, pushing the argument that price rises will be transitory.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 5 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Yellen’s rates call surprises
Janet Yellen surprised the markets uggesting it might be necessary to raise interest rates to stop the economy from overheating.
Markets Today: Demand beating supply
Demand is outstripping supply on both sides of the Atlantic.
Markets Today: A bad end to a solid month
Markets turned a little sour at the end of the week.
Markets Today: The price of supply chain disruption
It’s been a choppy session for US stocks, even though the news on the economy was largely positive and earnings results have been strong.
Markets Today: Long ways to go, says Powell
“long ways to go” is the Fed’s Jerome Powell’s take on the path to recovery for the American economy and the reason that rates won’t be lifting anytime soon.
28 April 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Treading water
Markets are treading water ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow morning.
Markets Today: Reflation reigns for now
Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 26 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Risk on, for how long?
Markets were on a positive frame of mind at the end of the week,
Markets Today: Rumoured US tax grab
Shares in the US have fallen on news of a planned sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans.
Markets Today: Hawkish Bank of Canada boosts Canadian dollar
The Canadian dollar has been boosted by the Bank of Canada markedly increasing their growth forecasts for this year
Markets Today: Markets cautious over speed of recovery
There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now.
20 April 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Wall St pulls back during quiet session
US equities dipped a little overnight, pulling back from record highs.
12 months on from COVID-19: NAB Markets podcast
What's the economic and financial markets landscape 12 Months on from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic?
FX and your business weekly podcast: 19 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Bitcoin stalls but US economy set to rip
There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace.
Markets Today: Topsy turvey response to a good news day
The news was largely positive overnight.
Markets Today: Earnings up; oil shoots higher.
Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market.
Markets Today: Vaccine slow down & inflation sign
It’s been a session with mixed messages.
Markets Today: US CPI today
It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 12 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: New highs, fast jabs & more inflation brush off
Equities in the US finished Friday on new highs.
Markets Today: Vaccine concerns
Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50.
Markets Today: Markets lacklustre
It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time.
Markets Today: Consolidating and vaccinating
There were no significant market moves overnight.
6 April 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
FX and your business weekly podcast: 6 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: US bounce pushes equities to record highs
US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data.
Markets Today: Markets rally ahead of Biden’s talk
President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen are about to give the details of their long-awaited infrastructure spending plan.
31 March 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Biden the builder
US 10 year Treasury yields hit a 14 month high overnight, as the US dollar rose higher.
Markets Today: Open for business
Early in the session the fire-sale of $20 billion of stocks held by Archegos Capital was all everyone was talking about.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 29 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Block trades and blocked trade
There was quite a bit of optimism in the air on Friday as we career towards the end of the month and the end of the quarter this week.
Currency spotlight: NZD
This podcast focuses on the New Zealand dollar – what’s been happening and what lies ahead for the rest of the year.
Markets Today: Mixed sentiment sees markets move sideways
It’s been another mixed session.
Markets Today: vaccine wrangles add to delay concerns
Even though countries are pressing ahead with vaccine role outs, the speed of recovery might be slower than envisaged.
Markets Today: Oil price spills over COVID recovery concerns
Market sentiment has switched in the last 24 hours, with concerns that the economic recovery from COVID-19 might be slower than anticipated.
Markets Today: US bond yields fall; risk sentiment boosts equities
There were big rises in US shares overnight, with the NASDAQ rising 1.7% in this session, helped by a moderate fall in Treasury yields.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 22 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: SLR and all that
The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March.
Currency spotlight: Yen
This podcast focuses on the Japanese Yen – what’s been happening over the last 12 months and NAB’s forecast.
Markets Today: Fed pushes bond yields up
There was more reaction to the FOMC meeting with bond yields rising sharply.
Markets Today: Strong market reaction as Fed changes nothing
The Fed has upped its growth expectations for the US economy, driven by the fiscal support and the vaccine rollout.
Markets Today: Slow movement, soft data
There wasn’t much movement in shares, bond yields or currencies overnight, despite weaker retail numbers out of the US.
Markets Today: Clots slow down the EU vaccine rollout
The fear of blood clots from injections means use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been suspended in an increasing number of European countries.
16 March 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
FX business focus: retail
A new podcast that looks at what strategies clients used to manage the recent foreign exchange market volatility.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 15 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Yields higher, jabs faster, inflation expectations lower
Bonds yields rose sharply again on Friday, with 10 year Treasuries reaching their highest level since February last year.
Currency spotlight: Euro
This podcast focuses on the Euro - it's drivers and outlook.
Markets Today: ECB to buy faster, US job claims slowing
Asset markets continue to be drawn by bond markets.
Markets Today: Low US inflation
The story of the day was the softer US inflation numbers which saw yields pull back and helped stocks rise.
Markets Today: Another big share flip
Shares have reverted to a focus on tech in the US with a sharp rise in tech stocks.
FX business focus: importing
A podcast that explores how Australian importers managed their foreign exchange strategies during and post the global pandemic.
Markets Today: Turning away from tech as yields push higher
US Treasury yields pushed steadily higher overnight, reaching 1.6 percent for 10 year Treasuries.
Markets Today: US – strong jobs numbers, $1.9 trillion injection almost there
The US senate has passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, so it will almost certainly become law this week.
Markets Today: bond yields climb again
Bond yields are on the rise, in the US and in Australia – for very similar reasons.
4 March 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Bond yield rising sharply
Bond yield have been rising sharply overnight.
Markets Today: Australia’s growth, China’s warning
All eyes will be on Australia’s GDP read this morning, which Ray Attrill says is expected to be close to 3% growth QoQ, driven by consumer spending.
2 March 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
FX business focus: Agribusiness
A new podcast that looks at what strategies agribusiness clients used to manage recent foreign exchange market volatility.
Markets Today: RBA buys up ahead of today’s meeting
The RBA might have left itself with very little to say today, having upped their bond buying in response to the sharp rise in yields last week.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 1 March 2021
A new weekly podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Bond yields switch direction as volatility continues
Friday saw a reversal in the bond sell-offs earlier in the week, seeing 10 year yields in the US falling back top 1.4%.
Markets Today: A big bond sell-off
Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out of fashion.
25 February 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: The battle to be king of the doves
Central bankers are fighting amongst themselves as to who can sound the most dovish.
Markets Today: Will the RBA play catch up?
Many believe the RBA didn’t go far enough on Monday, buying up a $1 billion of bond purchases in the face of sharply rising bond yields.
23 February 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Bond yields go crazy, Aussie dollar hits another multi-year high
Australian 10 year bond yields have nudged 1.65 percent for the first time since May 2019.
Markets Today: Multi-year highs for the Aussie Dollar and Sterling, whilst US yields shoot higher
There was a big rise in the Aussie dollar and the pound on Friday, both reaching multi-year highs.
Markets Today: US equities fall; pound rises
There have been big falls in US equities overnight after higher than anticipated jobless claims, showing its not a smooth recovery for the US.
Markets Today: US – more shopping, higher producer prices
There was a strong bounce back in US retail sales in January.
Markets Today: Treasury yields rise sharply as reflation rolls on
Equities were mixed in the US overnight, but the S&P 500 did manage to claw out a new record high, whilst the NASDAQ fell.
16 February 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: US rest day can’t stop reflation
America has been off work for Presidents Day, but that hasn’t stopped markets optimistically looking to a world where COVID-19 isn’t centre stage.
Markets Today: All the ex-President’s men
There’s absolutely no surprise that Donald Trump has been acquitted in Washington,
Markets Today: Powell’s slow road
It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours with only slight market moves
Markets Today: Markets bide their time
Markets have been fairly subdued on the back of soft inflation numbers in the US, and as investors hold off for any revelations from Jerome Powell as he addresses the Economic Club of New York.
Markets Today: China’s credit surprise boosts Euro. Here’s why.
The Euro gained on two fronts overnight.
Markets Today: Yellen denies great inflation expectations
Janet Yellen shrugged off concerns about the Biden stimulus package unleashing inflation on the US economy.
Markets Today: Inflation debate over Biden’s stimulus as jobs growth disappoints
Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers in the US surprised on the downside.
Markets Today: UK & US blossom while Europe struggles
The UK and the US are well ahead of Europe on vaccine rollouts, and that seems to be the major focus of markets right now.
Markets Today: New Zealand – first out?
New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels.
Markets Today: Philip Lowe set to explain the dovish RBA stance
All eyes and ears will be on Philip Lowe’s speech today, following the very dovish outlook from the RBA yesterday.
2 February 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Moving on from GameStop, back to abnormality
In normal times an episode like the Reddit induced short squeeze would eventually see markets return to normal.
Markets Today: Reddit warriors, vaccine nationalism and Morrison’s budget repair
Equities were hit hard on Friday as the Reddit warriors made their mark.
Markets Today: Reddit Rebels shut out; US growth slows
US equities have bounced back after a day influenced by speculative trading on retail platforms with investors spurred on by chatter on Reddit.
Markets Today: Big falls in shares ahead of a dovish Fed
The markets have so far been unmoved by the FOMC announcement, perhaps because it said so little.
Markets Today: Asian equities hit, US stimulus delayed, Aussie inflation today
The IMF has upped their forecasts for global growth but, as Tapas Strickland suggests on this morning’s podcast, markets don’t tend to pay a lot of attention to these numbers
Markets Today: Vaccine delays throw dampener on recovery timelines
Markets turned sharply to a risk-off mood at the end of last week, on the realisation that vaccine roll outs will take longer than hoped whilst infections are growing.
Markets Today: ECB sticks with bond buying plans
The ECB changed nothing overnight, with President Lagarde saying risks remained on the downside.
Markets Today: Inauguration Day highs
New highs on the NASDAQ and S&P500.
Markets Today: America goes gaga as Janet Yellen acts big
It’s Inauguration Day, or it will be when Wednesday eventually ticks round in the US.
Markets Today: Trump’s last day – how much will Biden undo?
Markets are looking through the prospect on any unrest on inauguration day, but the more immediate question is what will the President do today?
Markets Today: Is Biden’s honeymoon over already?
Markets responded at the end of the week to Joe Biden’s proposals for stimulating the US economy.
Markets Today: Bond yields rise as Powell puts paid to tapering
Bond yields were already on the rise before Fed chairman Jerome Powell talked down the likelihood of any easing in bond purchases this year.
14 January 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Bond yields fall on less taper talk
An ensuing impeachment of the US President continues to be of little concern to the markets.
Markets Today: Treasury appetite is still strong
With yields rising there’s been a question mark over whether the appetite for treasury bonds is falling.
12 January 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: How much stimulus is too much?
Bond yields continue to rise in the US as markets prepare for an expected multi-trillion dollar stimulus package from the President-elect.
Markets Today: A Blue Wave into 2021
The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off pretty much where we left off.
Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in
You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine.
21 December 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: US deal imminent. UK marooned. Brexit all at sea
There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours.
Markets Today: One minute to midnight on US & UK-EU deals
The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at the point of no return.
Markets Today: Imminent fiscal deal
There's rising hopes that a US fiscal stimulus deal is imminent.
Markets Today: Hope springs eternal, on both sides of the Atlantic
Equities have climbed higher in the US and Europe on the hopes two deals will be struck this week.
Markets Today: Vaccine optimism dimmed by new strain
The markets lost some of their mojo today.
Markets Today: US in warp speed whilst UK dithers
The inoculation program in the US has ambitious targets.
Markets Today: UK-EU no deal looms
Even though a hard deadline has been set for Sunday for the UK-EU trade deal, there’s no guarantee it will all end there.
10 December 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: A big day for Europe
Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson have been meeting over dinner to discuss the progress of the UK-EU trade deal.
Markets Today: UK trade talks to get an injection, but the prognosis is not good
The UK has started injecting people with the COVID vaccine. If only they could inject compromise in the UK and EU negotiators who remain a long way from reaching a deal.
Markets Today: UK & EU leaders to hold last ditch meeting, pound is choppy
The UK-EU trade deal really is going right down to the wire – and the wire itself keeps getting pushed back.
Markets Today: 60 percent chance of a UK-EU trade deal
US equities reached new highs again on Friday even though the jobs numbers were lower than anticipated.
Markets Today: One deal down, two to go
OPEC+ has struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, rather than letting the production cuts fall off a cliff.
3 December 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: More US stimulus talk; less Brexit hope
The pound has taken a sharp hit as Brexit talks don’t seem to have progressed much at all.
Markets Today: China’s PMI high, Australia’s GDP bounce, the Brexit tunnel, OPEC delays and a US stimulus deal?
There’s a positive vibe about this morning, pushing equities higher and Treasury yields have seen a sharp rise too.
1 December 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Month-end rebalancing
The US dollar was losing ground for most of the session before a sudden reversal that knocked the Euro off a multi-year high.
Markets Today: Gone fishing
The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel.
Markets Today: Lane’s credit concerns
The ECB’s Philip Lane expressed concern about the tightening of credit standards which could impede the European recovery.
Markets Today: Not much to be thankful for
It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and markets have been cautious ahead of the holidays.
Markets Today: Trump relents, oil climbs and Dow hits new high
New positivity with the Dow breaking 30,000 for the first time, due in part to hopes for; a vaccine and a peaceful transition for the Biden administration.
24 November 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: More positive vaccine news, but equities are cautious
Astra Zeneca announced the results of their trials, with efficacy up to 90 percent with a drug that is cheaper to produce and easier to distribute.
Markets Today: Revised Aussie growth forecast and a Fed-Treasury spat
NAB has revised its forecasts for growth in the Australia economy.
20 November 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Insight
Markets Today: Lockdown jitters
The markets are more focused on the short-term economic hit of lockdowns than the longer-term vaccine fuelled positive outlook.
Markets Today: Lockdowns & infections overshadow more vaccine news
Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news.
Markets Today: Markets take a breather, but standby for more vaccine news
There was no new vaccine news overnight and the markets seemed a little disappointed by that, with equities down and a move to government bonds.
17 November 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: And another one
Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness.
Markets Today: Vaccine vs infections – the only news that seems to matter
Last week was a volatile one, but markets enthusiasm stemming from the hope of a vaccine led the charge, with some shifting of focus on equity markets.
Markets Today: Markets realise there’s tumult before a vaccine
This week’s earlier optimism over a possible vaccine for COVID-19 has disappeared completely, with equities falling and bond prices rising.
The Forward View – Global: November 2020
After two steps forward, European lockdowns are a step back for the recovery.
Podcast
Markets Today: Vaccine rally continues but central banks more guarded
Even though the markets continue to respond positively to the hope of a vaccine, central bankers seem to be taking a more cautious tone.
Markets Today: Tech hit by vaccine and antitrust moves. RBNZ today, less dovish perhaps?
Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoing impacts from COVID-19, with structural differences highlighting the need for the fiscal stimulus that now seems unlikely to happen this year.
Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore
The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate.
Markets Today: A blue wave is still possible, after two months of ‘no
There’s still an outside chance that in January the Democrats could take control of the Senate.
Markets Today: Fiscal stimulus desperately needed
Markets have adopted a risk-on stance with the hope that there'll be fiscal stimulus to counter the impacts of COVID-19.
5 November 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Divided they stand
US equities have climbed as the US goes through Wednesday without a clear winner in the election.
Markets Today: Lowe goes heavy, US stocks run hot on Biden hope
The RBA announced cuts to interest rates and a $100bn bond buying program yesterday.
Markets Today: Markets turn green on hope of a blue victory
Markets flipped from Friday’s share and bond sell-off, with more optimism a day or two out from what is expected to be a Biden victory.
Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November
After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers.
Markets Today: Markets bounce back – for now
Markets turned around again with equities rising sharply.
29 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets hit hard
Markets have been hit by concerns over COVID-19 and the US election aftermath.
Markets Today: Is the Biden Trump gap closing?
There’s a risk that next week’s US election is more contestable than we might have considered a week ago.
27 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: COVID concerns get classic risk-off treatment
Markets are displaying classic risk-off moves today – with equities down, bond prices up and the US dollar the safe haven currency of choice.
Markets Today: Markets running scared at start of Halloween week
Last week finished with US stocks down, the US dollar down and the price of bonds down.
Markets Today: Trump’s last stand
In a few hours Joe Biden and Donald Trump go head to head in the last election debate.
22 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Look who’s talking (x2)
Talks are back on.
Markets Today: Still wishing and hoping on stimulus deal
Equities are higher in the US today.
20 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Deal or no deal, transatlantic edition
Markets are waiting to see the outcome of two on again off again decisions, both with sizeable economic consequences.
Markets Today: A calm Friday, but it could be a volatile week
After a fairly volatile week markets were calmer on Friday on the back of positive retail numbers from the US.
16 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Risk off mood as virus cases rise
There’s a strong risk off mood in the air, which has pushed the US dollar higher and hit stocks.
Markets Today: Trump talks it up. Will Lowe talk it down?
Philip Lowe, the Governor of the RBA, is talking this morning.
Markets Today: The Aussie coal ban and earnings caution
The Aussie dollar has taken a hit twice in the last twenty-four hours.
Markets Today: Aussie down with Renminbi; Barrett trumps stimulus on Columbus Day
The US Senate is seemingly preoccupied with pushing through Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court nominee, casting aside any bandwidth for fiscal stimulus talks.
12 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
Listen to the full podcast now. If listening on a mobile device, click listen in browse.
Podcast
Markets Today: US dollar sinks along with Trump’s hopes
The US dollar hit a two and a half year low on Friday, whilst the Chinese Yuan showed big gains.
Markets Today: Markets cling on to stimulus hopes, but maybe after a Biden victory
Donald Trump continues to talk about a stimulus deal, even though he said it had been shelved.
Markets Today: Markets bounce back on stimulus hopes
There’s been a market rebound on the hope that some sort of stimulus deal in the US is still possible before the election.
Markets Today: Markets take a hit as Trump ditches stimulus talks
There’s been a strong reaction in the equity and currency markets to Donald Trump’s sudden decision to stop talks about a fiscal stimulus, even though he tweeted about the need for it whilst in hospital over the weekend.
Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID
As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to the US economy.
Markets Today: One big October surprise
Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White House as soon as today. So, do the markets take back some of their risk concerns, and focus on the positives of the situation?
Markets Today: Fiscal stalemate and long tunnel vision
Equities in the US rose overnight despite a stalemate on the fiscal stimulus package.
Markets Today: Strong US data; no room for Chicken Lickens
Equities have been helped by some strong data from the US and continued hope on a stimulus deal.
Markets Today: No more heroes anymore
Despite a big jump in confidence in the Conference Board numbers for the US, there’s not much optimism in the markets today.
Markets Today: Taxing issues don’t hold back risk sentiment
US and European equities rose sharply, with rising confidence seeing a fall in the US dollar and a rise in the Aussie.
28 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Courting support ahead of election debates
COVID19 cases continue to rise in Europe, with numbers in the UK and France now well above the first wave.
25 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Are bailouts bygones?
Equities were rising again in the US overnight on the hopes that a stimulus deal would be struck between the GOP and Democrats, but as optimism turned to reality, prices fell, the US dollar regained some of its strength and bond yields weakened.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar falls as risk sentiment deteriorates
NAB had forecast that the Aussie dollar would reach 74 US cents by the end of the year. It did earlier this month but, as global risk sentiment rises, it is rapidly losing ground.
Markets Today: Powell asks for support, Debelle hints at easing, NAB revises rates forecasts
In the US Jerome Powell spelt out very clearly in his testimony before Congress that more fiscal stimulus was needed and had been assumed by many board members in their policy predictions.
22 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Equities fall; bond yields weaken
Concerns over the impact of a second wave in the US and Europe seem to be gathering momentum, driving investors to government bonds and safe-haven currencies.
Markets Today: A word from your central bank
What more can central banks do to help stabilise the global economy?
18 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Equities fall again
It’s been a topsy turvy session overnight.
Markets Today: Fed says 3 years near zero
US interest rates will be lower for longer – that’s the takeout from today’s FOMC meeting.
Markets Today: China shops, RBA waits, FOMC meets
US equities are on the rise again driven by a flurry of M&A activity, alongside vaccine hopes and reasonable activity numbers from China.
Markets Today: Vaccine by year end
Shares climbed in the US on the hope Pfizer will have a vaccine ready by the end of the year.
14 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: 6 months on – a still uncertain future
It’s just over six months since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and we’re still unsure about how it will all end.
11 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Pound pummelled
The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement.
The Forward View – Global: September 2020
Economic rebound in Q3, but signs that growth momentum is slowing.
Podcast
Markets Today: Equities bounce back ahead of ECB meeting
There’s been a rebound in risk sentiment.
Markets Today: US equities hit again
US equities have had a third session with substantial falls.
Monthly Business Survey: August 2020
Conditions soften, while Confidence is still weak.
Podcast
Markets Today: Brexit brinkmanship
A drop in the pound was the only significant market move overnight.
Markets Today: US jobs coming back but “harder from here”
US jobs data on Friday helped the equities market to regain a little composure as it fell for the second day.
Markets Today: Equities hit
There have been massive falls in US equities, particularly tech stocks.
3 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Markets Today: equities still rise
The US dollar managed a slight recovery which has also seen continued growth in US equities.
Markets Today: Europe’s prices drop; US shares rise
Deflation in Europe comes as no surprise but the markets are still adjusting to the shift in the Fed’s monetary policy.
Markets Today: Aussie and NZ dollar flying high
The Australian and NZ dollars reached two-year highs in the overnight session.
31 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: US dollar falls as Fed’s policy sinks in
The US dollar bore the brunt of Friday’s reflective thinking on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
Markets Today: Powell’s ‘average’ address
Jerome Powell used his virtual address to the Jackson Hole Symposium to announce the Fed’s strategy of targeting an ‘average’ 2% inflation rate
Markets Today: High hopes and higher equities
There’s continued optimism in the markets with equities reaching new highs again.
Markets Today: Choppy waters with a flash of hope for Germany
The US dollar is down again with equities up and touching new highs again.
Markets Today: Looking on the bright side of life
US equities reached new highs again, with big gains also in Europe.
Markets Today: Europe slows down
Europe’s PMI’s disappointed markets on Friday, whereas the US numbers were better than expected.
Markets Today: Equity highs, then PMIs
US equities continue to rise, even though the jobless claims numbers rose last week.
20 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: FOMC minutes fail to map out direction
There was disappointment from investors after the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting were released.
Markets Today: Stocking up and moving up
US stocks continue to rise to record highs, helped today by strong housing starts and building permits.
Markets Today: Aussie flies higher
The US dollar continues to fall, pushing the Aussie dollar higher this morning.
17 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: No trade talks; Democrats swing into action
US-China trade talks have been called off for the foreseeable future with little market impact.
Markets Today: Jobs, stimulus and bond yields
Jobs data is confusing right now. How much is it influenced by government stimulus activity?
13 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: US equities head for highs
US equities continue to race upwards, at or near record highs.
Markets Today: Russian roulette
Markets in Europe seem to have been encouraged by the news that Russia is to start vaccinating key workers in the next few weeks.
Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs
The latest JOLTs (job openings) showed there are 5.9 million jobs available, more than expected, but it didn’t give markets any kick.
Markets Today: Get set for TikTok tit for tat
Trump’s executive orders hit technology stocks in the US and China on Friday.
Markets Today: Go it alone on stimulus
President Trump has indicated if no stimulus deal is reached he’ll use his executive powers.
6 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Is gold indestructible?
Gold has broken the $2,000/ounce mark, so is it making a run for it?
Markets Today: Gold’s new high; bond yields head lower
Treasury bond yields are reaching new lows which has heightened the appetite for gold.
4 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Manufacturing climbs
There was a lot of optimism in the markets overnight, driven by strong manufacturing numbers in the US and Europe.
Markets Today: Lockdowns abound; still no US fiscal deal
The Australian economy will take a hit from the stage four lockdown in Melbourne, but it’s not alone.
Markets Today: The big US slowdown, Trump talks election delays
The US dollar continued to slide, with a fall in shares and US Treasury yields, as GDP numbers showed the extent of the shock to the US economy in Q2.
30 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Powell’s “tough situation” yet equities push higher again
“We’re in a tough situation” – that was the response from Jerome Powell to one question during the FOMC press conference this morning.
Markets Today: US heads for fiscal cliff as confidence slides
The US is no nearer to reaching agreement on their fiscal stimulus package.
Markets Today: Gold bubbles higher; mighty dollar falls further
Gold has reached a record high, whilst the US dollar continues to slide.
27 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Will Congress keep the money rolling-in?
The US dollar lost a lot of ground last week as Congress argued over the shape and form of the next recovery package.
Markets Today: Markets tumble; optimism turns to Europe
It's been a classic risk-off session so far, at least in the second half.
23 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
A large deterioration in the budget position and a pessimistic economic outlook. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: race to splash the cash
Europe's done it, Australia's done it. Now it's the US' turn to extend their fiscal support, and the deadline is looming.
Markets Today: Europe shines brighter
The Aussie dollar rose over 1.7 percent, helped by the gain in the Euro after leaders there reached an agreement on a European Rescue Plan.
Markets Today: Extending JobKeeper and vaccine hope
Scott Morrison will unveil changes to the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs today
20 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: A recovery plan in need of rescue
After three days debating the size and shape of the European Recovery Plan, EU leaders failed to reach an agreement.
Markets Today: Jobs, jobs, jobs
There's been a lot of employment numbers out over the last 24 hours – for the US, the UK and Australia.
16 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The Forward View – Global: July 2020
Global recovery continues but virus outbreaks a major risk.
Insight
Markets Today: Finding the shape of the new abnormal
There’s another possibly shape – the W recovery.
The Forward View – Australia: July 2020
Extent of the fall in Q2 GDP revised sharply down – as is 2020. But pain still large and long lasting. With new virus uncertainties.
Insight
Markets Today: European plan hopes boost the Euro
The Euro’s rise is based on hopes that European leaders will reach a consensus on their rescue package this week.
Markets Today: Vaccine hopes then China tensions
Equities in the US spent most of the session rising, driven by the news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s experimental vaccine has being fast tracked in the US.
Markets Today: China news and virus news
Markets opted to take the positive news on Friday, sending shares higher and the US dollar lower.
Markets Today: Confidence vs COVID – the battle continues
Markets are split between the confidence things might be getting better versus the realisation that in the US southern states infection rates (and fatalities) are getting worse.
9 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: UK Government goes Dutch on lunch
The UK government going halves on lunch if you eat out in the first half of the week.
Markets Today: Wait and see
There isn’t an immense amount of confidence about how quickly economies will recover.
Markets Today: Look out for the cloud in the silver lining
Everyone is seeing the silver lining, but clouds could be forming.
6 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Split between the economy, virus and China
Which way will the markets be pulled this week?
Markets Today: Roaring back, a bit
The US President declares the economy is roaring back following 4.8 million new jobs in June.
2 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: lifeboats for Hong Kong; vaccine for COVID
The overnight session started on a sour note over increasing concerns about Hong Kong.
Markets Today: virus ‘out of control’ yet equities still rise
Dr Fauci has declared the virus as ‘out of control’ in the US and more measures need to be brought in to contain it.
Markets Today: Taking stock on a no-bad news day
There’s a little positive sentiment pushing shares higher again today and helping the US dollar gain on the Yen and Swiss Franc.
29 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Business View Podcast: 2020 in focus – leadership and resilience
Podcast: How businesses can lead post COVID-19.
Podcast
Markets Today: Virus numbers cause concern
Rising infection rates in US southern states hit equities hard on Friday.
25 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Easing Volcker
The easing of banks’ investment rules contained in the so-called ‘Volcker Rule’ has helped to boost stocks.
Markets Today: COVID-19 woes, forecast downgrades & oil concerns
Markets have been hit with a triple whammy – disturbing COVID-19 numbers emerging from the United States, a worse than expected downgrade to global growth forecasts and a big rise in oil inventories.
Markets Today: PMIs boosts sentiment
There’s a lot of positive sentiment again today, with US equities on the up and the NASDAQ reaching a new high.
Markets Today: PMIs to help show shape of the recovery
In a day that’s been light on news, markets have had a chance to take a more positive outlook, pushing equities higher and the US dollar lower.
22 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets torn
Last week was a choppy week as markets tried to balance out positive economic news against rising concerns about COVID-19 infections.
Markets Today: Back to work but not for everyone
Markets continue to be jittery, with news of reopenings offset by concern over rising infection rates.
18 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: How many jobs will go?
Australia’s latest unemployment numbers are out this morning and the rate is expected to rise.
Markets Today: US retail bounce; Trump’s next trillion
Market sentiment is higher again this morning from a surprise rebound in US retail sales, coupled with talk of a $1 trillion infrastructure program from the Trump administration.
Markets Today: Fed goes further
Globally equities had been dampened on Monday morning but equities are back on the rise in the US.
15 June 2020- Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: The impact of lockdown easing
The markets lost a chunk of optimism last week.
Markets Today: investors run for cover
There’s been a swift move to bonds and safe haven currencies since the Fed’s message yesterday that it would take a couple of years at least for life to return to normal.
11 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020
The trend improvement in consumption-based spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it may be levelling off and even slowing a little.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: June 2020
Long climb back to ‘normal’ levels of global activity has started.
Insight
Markets Today: Fed not pulling back till 2022
The US Fed has reiterated that they will do whatever it takes to protect the US economy, with inflation expected to remain below 2 percent through to 2022.
The Forward View – Australia: June 2020
A small fall in GDP in Q1 expected to be followed by a very large fall in Q2 – followed by an extended period of recovery.
Podcast
Markets Today: Easing off the peddle
The rally in equities has stalled for now – except for the NASDAQ.
Markets Today: Is the US bouncing back sooner than expected?
Equity markets continue to rise and the US dollar continues to weaken with increasing risk-on sentiment.
Markets Today: ECB extends its shopping spree
The ECB announced it will extend its bond buying program by a further €600b.
4 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: The recession we only just had to have
Australia has entered a recession but, as Josh Frydenberg was quick to point out yesterday, the Q1 fall in GDP was miniscule compared to most of the rest of the world.
Markets Today: Aussie rises further
It’s all good news as far as the markets are concerned, pushing the Aussie dollar even higher.
Markets Today: The rise and rise of the Aussie dollar
The Australian dollar has climbed even higher this morning, reaching 68 US cents.
1 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Less shock, more ore
We’re seeing iron ore prices rise largely because of concerns over supply from Brazil.
Markets Today: Optimism knocked back by Trump announcement
US equities continued to rally as investors looked for signs the economy would be getting back on track. But then …
NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020
The overall trend in consumption spending continues to improve, but in 4-week moving average terms is down 7.8% over the same time last year and 5.8% since the start of 2020.
Insight
28 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster unpacks the latest consumption data and the results are encouraging.
Podcast
Business View Podcast: 2020 in focus – the road ahead
New podcast: NAB CEO and Group Chief Economist on how Australia will rise again.
Podcast
Markets Today: China goes cold on Aussie coal
The Australian dollar has lost ground as China threatened to ban imports of Australian coal.
Markets Today: Markets catch reopening fever
There’s a strong risk-on mood in the markets this morning.
Markets Today: Equities rebound despite “new cold war”
Equities have staged a broad-based rebound and are expected to continue as markets reopen in the US and UK.
Podcast
25 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Hong Kong returns to pre-COVID protests
The unrest in Hong Kong is likely to impact the Australian dollar.
Markets Today: Equities hit by China’s clashes with the US
Market sentiment was tempered somewhat by rising rhetoric between the US and China.
21 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets accentuate the positive
It’s been another positive session, driving equities higher and giving another boost to the Australian dollar.
Markets Today: Taking a deep breath
Markets have controlled their excitement after the burst of optimism over a potential COVID-19 vaccine.
18 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets go vaccine crazy
There’s been big increases in equity markets and bond yields on news of a successful stage one vaccine trial in the US.
Markets Today: Back to work & back to the trade war
The US President has said the US needs to get back to work, vaccine or not.
Markets Today: Job woes, US tensions & China’s rebound
The US and Australia have both reported dour job numbers, although markets were braced to expect it.
14 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The Forward View – Global: May 2020
A massive contraction in global activity has occurred due to COVID-19.
Markets Today: Powell’s negative tone talks down markets
The Fed’s Governor Jerome Powell took a very sombre tone about the response to the COVID-19 crisis.
The Forward View – Australia: May 2020
Our forecasts are broadly unchanged – we still expect a fall of 8.5% in GDP in H1 2020 before a rebound in growth in Q4.
Markets Today: Markets worried over longer lockdowns
There’s been a swift reversal in sentiment.
Markets Today: AUD falls despite continued recovery hopes
When we’ve had positive risk sentiment in the past we’ve tended to see a stronger Aussie dollar but that’s not the case today.
Markets Today: Markets ignore 20.5 million US job losses
The non-farm payrolls data on Friday showed 20.5 million new job losses in one month in the US and yet equities rose
Markets Today: Fed fund futures turn negative
Future contracts for Fed funds turned negative for the first time.
7 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Lifting lockdowns but the debt remains
Two questions remain over the COVID-19 crisis: when is it safe to lift lockdowns and what will the debt-impact be on the economy?
Markets Today: Germany’s judges challenge ECB
The Euro and Italian bonds took a hit with German judges challenging the ECB on its QE activity.
Markets Today: Airlines take a beating; German judges to rule on QE
Airline stocks have taken a heavy hit after Warren Buffet’s decision to bail out at the weekend.
4 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Bad start to a potentially rocky month
May got off to a bad start on Friday with falls in equities and the Aussie dollar the worst currency on the day.
Markets Today: Month-end; fewer jobs
Month-end has seen a broad sell-off of the US dollar.
30 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Fed hints for more fiscal support
Fed warns of considerable medium-term risk.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar pushing ahead
The Aussie dollar has been steadily rising, now around 65 US cents.
Private View Podcast: global shock, local impact
Listen to new podcast: COVID-19 investment trends.
Podcast
Agri View Podcast: global shock, local impact
New podcast: Agribusiness a surprising bright spot in COVID-19.
Podcast
Small Business View Podcast: global shock, local impact
New podcast: How small businesses are surviving COVID-19.
Podcast
28 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets dreaming of post lockdown utopia
Again, it seems markets are ignoring the bad data of which there’s plenty.
Markets Today: Markets not entirely convinced on the V
There’s still talk of a v-shaped recovery in the US.
Markets Today: Bad news abounds but markets are positive
US unemployment registrations have added another 4.4 million, European PMIs hit record lows and the EU failed to reach an agreement on how to fund a recovery package for Europe.
23 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Shares rise, oil calmer & EU prepares next steps
Oil prices have recovered somewhat and equities have risen again.
Markets Today: Oil rout spills over
Oil rout sours risk sentiment across the board.
Markets Today: oil prices fall heavily into negative territory
WTI lurched into negative territory with a vengeance.
20 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about China's latest GDP, and the medium to long term impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Markets Today: Signs of a China bounce-back adds to optimism
Industrial production numbers from China on Friday gave investors hope.
Markets Today: More US jobless
Another 5.2 million jobless in the US.
16 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest labour force figures, inflation, and the impact of Coronavirus on net migration. Listen now.
Podcast
The Forward View – Global: April 2020
Global economy in its worst post-WW2 recession, recovery timing uncertain.
Markets Today: Markets might’ve overaccentuated the positive
March data out of the US is bad and the share market has taken it badly.
The Forward View – Australia: April 2020
Unprecedented sharp recession coming as a result of COVID-19. Sharp deterioration in employment and prolonged high unemployment.
Insight
Markets Today: V-shaped optimism drives shares higher
Australia joined the bull run in the share market yesterday, clocking up 20.7 percent growth since March 23.
Markets Today: Buying credit and cutting oil
The US Fed has extended its QE shopping list, agreeing to buy junk bonds from corporations suffering the impacts of the coronavirus.
9 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the JobKeeper package passed yesterday, unemployment forcasts and how industries are faring. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: EU fiddles whilst equities rise
There’s more optimism today that countries are reaching the peak of COVID-19, which is pushing US equities higher.
Markets Today: Equities rise as Europe’s curves flatten
Optimism is being driven by the infection and fatality curves for COVID-19 in Europe and the US.
Markets Today: Monumental hope from markets
Equities have bounced back in a big way on hope that countries will start to ease restrictions and get more people back to work.
6 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about our future GDP and the impact on different industries Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Are we turning a very long & slow corner?
Hope is a rare commodity these days – unlike oil.
Markets Today: Oil talk and jobless surge
Oil shot up in price overnight.
2 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the JobKeeper package and unemployment forecasts. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Bad start to the quarter
The quarter has started with big falls again on equity markets and lower Treasury yields, whilst oil prices continue to be driven downwards.
Markets Today: US & Europe – two sides of the same coin
Equities in Europe are on the rise. Equities in the US are on the slide.
Markets Today: See you on the other side
Scott Morrison’s job retention program helped equities yesterday but doesn’t explain the rise in the US and Europe.
30 March 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the short and longer term impacts of Coronavirus on the economy. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Hibernation, but for how long?
Other parts of the world are getting ready for a lockdown that could last a few months.
Markets Today: US equities rise on stimulus
US equities rose sharply overnight despite the news unemployment claims in the US have risen to 3.2 million for the week to March 21.
Markets Today: Flying blind, destination unknown
Equities are on the rise in the US and Europe.
Markets Today: brief respite on hopes of US stimulus deal
Markets reversed a little overnight with US and European equities rising.
Markets Today: Unlimited QE
The US Fed announces unlimited QE.
Markets Today: Lockdowns adding to market turmoil
It’s likely prices will fall further as more countries and regions go into lockdown.
Markets Today: what’s driving today’s sea of green?
Oil has shot up in price, with equities rising too and there’s a bit more interest in government bonds.
Markets Today: Another day of extremes
Big falls in equities and oil, as well as widespread selling of government bonds, even gold is being ditched.
Market’s today: Aussie’s new low & US ‘Helicopter’ money
The Aussie dollar has fallen below the post GFC low.
Markets Today: another black day
Despite extreme measures by the Fed yesterday and the return of QE, markets were far from impressed.
Markets Today: RBNZ latest to cut in global moves
The RBNZ has slashed rates this morning to a quarter percent.
Markets Today: Markets in turmoil
Markets are in free fall as containment measures impact heavily on business.
The Forward View – Global: March 2020
World growth to be hit hard in H1 2020 – at least – due to Coronavirus.
Markets Today: pandemic & an emergency cut
The Bank of England and UK government launched a coordinated approach on tackling COVID-19 headwinds, with an emergency rate cut and fresh fiscal stimulus.
The Forward View – Australia: March 2020
Soft Economy likely to be hard hit by COVID-19. Outlook heavily dependent on severity and how long disruption effects of the virus last.
Markets Today: waiting on stimulus news
Markets have bounced back a little even though the battle over oil seems to be getting worse.
Markets Today: Oil plunge sparks Black Monday
There has been a massive fall in oil prices.
Markets Today: Oil price battle will add to volatility
The rush to bonds continued on Friday, hitting new lows for Treasury yields, even as equities in the US saw a last-minute push and actually finished the week up a little.
Markets Today: And back to the safe havens
Markets have switched back to risk-off mood.
Markets Today: Markets rest hope on government stimulus
Equities and the US dollar have bounced back even if bond yields remain low.
Markets Today: Fed emergency cut doesn’t halt the carnage
The US Fed dropped interest rates by 50 basis points in an emergency cut.
Markets Today: RBA ready to cut; G7 phone call helps markets
Central bankers and finance ministers are hooking-up on a conference call later today to discuss a coordinated response to the impact of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: China’s manufacturing crumbles
Friday marked a bad end to a tumultuous week for the markets, with equities, commodities and bond yields all hit hard.
Markets Today: rout resumes on fears of the unknown
Thursday proved to be a very volatile day towards the end of a very volatile week.
Markets Today: Markets grab a short breather
The markets attempted a bit of a rebound earlier but it hasn’t lasted long.
Markets Today: Further falls on virus news
Markets continue to respond to news reports highlighting the (admittedly slow) spread of COVID-19.
Markets Today: Sharp moves as COVID-19 concern reaches fever pitch
The extent of the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea, Europe and numerous other countries, has driven a major fallout in markets overnight.
Markets Today: COVID-19 spreads further; core bond yields fall
There was a strong risk-off mood on Friday due to the spread of the COVID-19 infections and the impact it's having on the global economy.
Markets Today: COVID-19 jitters hit Asian currencies
Asian currencies have born the brunt of rising concerns over the spread of COVID-19 beyond the Chinese mainland.
Markets Today: markets do an about-turn
The markets have spun around again,with renewed optimism and not much lingering concern from Apple’s revenue warning yesterday.
Markets Today: Apple sparks concern over virus impact
Markets have returned to adopting a more cautious approach to the impact of COVID-19, after Apple said it didn’t expect to meet its forward guidance.
Markets Today: Japan’s pre-virus nose-dive
Nobody was expecting anything other than a bad GDP read from Japan but it was worse than bad.
Markets Today: Markets latch on to falling infection rates
Markets are cautiously hoping the worst of the coronavirus is over.
Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits
The markets slipped momentarily into risk-off as the number of COVID-19 infections jumped in volume, but concern slipped back a little as it became clear that the way cases were being measured had changed.
The Forward View – Global: February 2020
Coronavirus to deliver a shock to global growth.
Markets Today: Virus contagion eases, stocks hit new highs
The markets are continuing to discount the impact of the coronavirus.
The Forward View – Australia: February 2020
We have adjusted down 2020 GDP by 0.5% due to bushfires & Coronavirus impacts, but boosted for 2021. RBA forecasts a big stretch.
Markets Today: Powell talks shares down; Aussie rises
Trump tweeted as Jerome Powell spoke saying shares were falling the more he spoke.
Markets Today: Caution as China gets back to work
There seems to be hope of an early recovery to the impacts of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: virus concerns blitz strong US jobs report
Ordinarily these numbers would be a cause for optimism in the markets, yet concerns of the impact of the coronavirus are having the opposite impact.
Markets Today: China cuts tariffs, Aussie retail pushes rate cuts back
The sun continues to shine on the equity market with the S&P500 making a new record higher, +0.3% to 3,344.
Markets Today: Markets reading the numbers and preying on hope
As this week wears on the combination of more positive news is able to lift markets, even while the Coronavirus continues to show no signs of slowing down.
Markets Today: And then the rebound, for now
Since Monday the markets have dived, then climbed back again.
Markets Today: US equities back
US equities bounced back today – perhaps because there wasn’t a lot of new news on the coronavirus but also because US ISM numbers exceeding expectations.
Markets Today: Australia paying price on virus concerns
The Australian dollar – and emerging markets more broadly – were hit by further concerns over the spread of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: Virus hits equities
Coronavirus continues to cause concerns, hitting all asset classes overnight, including US and European equities.
Markets Today: FOMC on hold; BoE go next
The least surprising news today is the decision by the FOMC to keep rates on hold in the US.
Markets Today: Markets rethink corona risk
US stocks have rebounded after a day when they were hit hard over concerns on the spread of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: Spreading virus extends risks
The Australian dollar has fallen more than one percent today as concern continues over the spread of the Corona virus.
Markets Today: RBA rate cut might be delayed
Markets push back the timing of a rate cut from the RBA.
Markets Today: Corona concerns & Trump targets Europe
US equity markets have regained composure but will news of a lockdown of the Wuhan district fan further volatility?
Markets Today: Trump talks it up but US equities stall
Whilst President Trump was self-aggrandising at Davos, US equities stalled.
Markets Today: All Quiet until Trump Talks
The US was on holiday Monday so it’s been a quiet session all round.
Markets Today: Equities race higher on trade optimism
The rally in US equities continued at the end of the week, with the optimism spreading to Europe.
Markets Today: Retail numbers push US equities even higher
US equities rose higher still on the back of the latest US retail numbers.
Markets Today: new highs again for equities
Equities have posted further gains and new record highs.
Markets Today: Big beautiful monster of a deal day
The US and China will sign the phase one trade deal tonight.
Markets Today: China not a currency manipulator
There are reports the US Treasury Department will no-longer consider China a currency manipulator.
Markets Today: Are we set for a year of higher growth?
In our first podcast of 2020, Ray Attrill discusses the week’s economic news and the broader prospects for the year ahead.
Markets Today: From uncertainty to positivity? The Year Ahead.
With renewed hopes for a Brexit deal and a truce at least on the US China dispute, could 2020 be a year of strong growth?
Markets Today: Good Aussie jobs numbers add to positive vibe
The AUD held its position after the better-than-expected Australian Labour numbers yesterday.
Markets Today: Slow day with steepening yields & softer pound
Not much movement in currencies or equities.
Markets Today: Brexit risk returns
The pound took a hammering after Boris Johnson indicated the end of 2020 will be a firm deadline for Brexit, deal or no deal.
Markets Today: Are shares heading for a melt up?
There’s been feverish activity in equity markets over the last 24 hours as investors respond to the US-China trade deal and the removal of Brexit uncertainty (for now).
Markets Today: A double whammy – markets still cautious
Two of the biggest obstacles to global economic growth have seemingly been removed, or at least sidestepped for a while.
Markets Today: D-day for trade talks & UK government
Two significant deadlines today means, whatever happens, we can expect some volatility.
Markets Today: Aussie rises; Fed holds
The Fed has announced no moves on rates in the US, with no expectations for cuts in 2020.
2020 revealed: NAB’s Chief Economist on next year’s business outlook
What does next year hold for Australian business owners? Listen to our podcast for NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster’s 2020 vision on the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Markets Today: More interest in trade deal than impeachment
The markets continue to ignore the US impeachment proceedings.
Markets Today: A quiet day
Markets have been calm overnight, in wait and see mode ahead of a series of more important events this week.
Markets Today: Good jobs news – bad for a trade deal?
Jobs numbers from the US on Friday were well above expectations and we saw a swift response in the markets.
Markets Today: Aussie retail slowdown, ongoing trade uncertainty and US jobs numbers to come
All eyes tonight will be on the US non-farm payrolls data.
Markets Today: Pound Rises, Oil Shoots Up, Trump Leaves Early
Oil has been the big mover overnight ahead of the OPEC summit.
Markets Today: President Out-Trumps Himself at NATO
President Trump has upset markets further today suggesting that the trade deal with China might be left till after the US election, a year away.
Markets Today: Trump threatens more tariffs as China’s manufacturing grows, US slows
The markets were spooked overnight by threats of further tariffs from the US President if a trade resolution isn’t reached.
Markets Today: RBA week, oil volatility, Merkel’s coalition in danger
It’s an important week for Australian markets, with a slew of data today, GDP released on Wednesday and the RBA meeting between them.
Markets Today: China angry on US Hong Kong Bill, but will it impact the trade deal?
President Trump has signed the Hong Kong human rights act.
Markets Today: Markets positive on US data
For once US markets have been driven not by trade talks, but by hard numbers.
Markets Today: Lowe on QE; US equities up
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said QE wouldn’t happen in Australia until interest rates got down to 0.25%.
Markets Today: Trade hope sends stocks high
The hope that something will happen soon between the US and china has sent US equities to new highs.
Markets Today: New week, new hope
There was renewed hope a phase one trade deal could be reached between the US and China by Christmas.
Markets Today: Markets ignore impeachment
The markets anticipate the next development in the US-China trade talks.
Markets Today: Will Human Rights Bill scupper a trade deal?
Markets adopted a mild risk-off mood overnight.
Markets Today: RBA considered a cut
The markets are still waiting for developments on the US China trade talks.
Markets Today: China uncertain, Boris boosted
Sterling has been the biggest mover as Boris Johnson pulls ahead in the polls.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2019
High cost of water dries up basin profit margins.
Markets Today: Markets living on high hope
US equities finished last week on new highs on the hope the phase one trade deal between the US and China is close.
Markets Today: AUD fall continues, bond yields down as trade delay persists
The Aussie dollar fell sharply yesterday on the back of disappointing jobs numbers, followed by weaker than anticipated activity data from China.
Markets Today: The Kiwi flies, Powell stands still
The NZ dollar saw the biggest currency move over the last 24 hours.
Markets Today: President talks but gives nothing away
The US President offered nothing new about where trade talks are at and the markets little moved.
Markets Today: Brexit pact boosts pound
Sterling bounced higher today, shortly after GDP figures showed the UK had narrowly missed a recession.
Markets Today: Simply irresistible
The fact Trump wasn’t entirely keen on giving up existing tariffs hasn’t stopped investors from pushing equity prices higher.
Markets Today: Stock market up big
Shares rose higher on further hope that trade talks with China will see a roll back in existing tariffs.
Markets Today: No time, no place, no momentum
Market sentiment has done a complete U-turn.
Markets Today: High hopes & gentle turning point
With nothing concrete to go on, markets continue to factor-in optimism over the US-China trade talks.
Markets Today: Shocking shopping statistics
Yesterday’s retail numbers showed Australians are cutting back on their shopping habits.
Markets Today: high on jobs growth
US equities hit new highs again on Friday.
Markets Today: Phase 2 deal unlikely
There’s a risk-off mood today.
Markets Today: Fed – cut and hold
The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates as expected.
Markets Today: Aussie CPI today, Fed tomorrow
Australia’s CPI read today and US GDP numbers tonight.
Markets Today: US stocks flying high on hope
US stocks are on the rise as optimism for a trade deal intensifies.
Markets Today: Fed easing, trade hopes rising, Brexit stalling
A rate cut is anticipated by the Fed and there’s further hope a phase one deal will be signed by the US and China.
Markets Today: pound hit by election hope
The pound weakened as Boris Johnson calls for an election on December 12th.
Markets Today: Au revoir Draghi, Bonjour UK election
Mario Draghi is preparing to chair his last ECB meeting, with no expectation he will move rates.
Markets Today: Brexit Bill proceeds, then stops!
The market reaction has not been favourable to the latest Brexit events.
Markets Today: Brexit & tariff Déjà vu
Two familiar stories dominated the markets overnight.
Markets Today: Brexit & US-China deal optimism
The pound has already weakened on the latest Brexit delay.
Markets Today: Brexit see-saw & Aussie employment bonus
The early market response to a new Brexit deal and Aussie employment numbers.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2019
Wheat crop cops sharp downgrade amid tough spring.
Markets Today: Brexit vibe is positive
The pound has risen again as negotiations continue into the night (again) over a Brexit deal.
Markets Today: GBP higher on Brexit midnight mercy dash
The pound is riding higher on the back of optimism.
Markets Today: More talk before truce
There’s a little apprehension in the markets this morning because the US China trade deal might not be a done deal.
Markets Today: Double Deal – did the markets overreact?
The markets finished last week on a high.
Markets Today: Two big slugs of positivity
US-China trade talks and Brexit negotiations both look like some sort of deal could be reached.
Markets Today: Markets respond to a glimmer of hope
There’s a risk on mood in the markets today.
Markets Today: Deals falling off the table
Even though trade talks are still going ahead between the US and China this week, what little hope of any sort of outcome, seems to be rapidly diminishing.
Markets Today: The waiting games – trade, Brexit & Syria
Markets are more preoccupied with the outcome of the US-China trade talks this week.
Markets Today: Something for everyone
There was something for everyone in Friday night’s US employment report.
Markets Today: US Services sector slips & rate cut hopes rise
In the US the non-manufacturing ISM read came in a lot lower than expected.
Markets Today: Q4 off to a bad start
It’s a sea of red for global equities and US bond yields.
Markets Today: RBA takes aim
The markets have reacted firmly to news from the RBA yesterday.
Markets Today: Markets brush off yesterday’s news
US equities are on the rise as markets brush off concerns over the lack of progress on US China trade talks
Markets Today: US equity delisting threat
US equities felt the heat on Friday with news that the Trump administration was looking at new ways of limiting investment in China.
Markets Today: USD close to two year high
The US dollar index (DXY) reached over 99.3, close to a two-year high.
Markets Today: New trade hope
The markets reacted positively to indications from President Trump that a trade deal with China could be close.
Markets Today: Impeachment talk knocks markets
Impeachment proceedings against the US President has hit equities, bond yields and oil prices hard.
Markets Today: will Lowe signal RBA rate cut?
RBA Governor Philip Lowe is talking in Armidale later today.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2019
Seasonal conditions and declining winter crop forecasts reflect drop in NAB Rural Commodities Index.
Markets Today: Trump pours cold water on trade hopes
Hopes of a quick resolution to the US China trade dispute seem as unlikely as ever.
Markets Today: Will jobless numbers push the RBA to cut sooner?
There’s rising expectation the RBA will cut interest rates at their next meeting.
Markets Today: Fed turns hawkish
The Federal Reserve cut rates but didn’t give a clear indication of further cuts or promise the return of QE.
Markets Today: Oil slides as production returns
Oil prices fell sharply on news Saudi oil production will be back in full by the end of the month.
Markets Today: Saudi aftermath – winners & losers
Brent Crude rose 20 percent at the market open on Monday morning, the biggest single move since the invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
Markets Today: Oil attack hits supplies
Attacks on the world’s largest oil refinery has hit global supplies hard.
Markets Today: QE is back at the ECB
The ECB is to reintroduce quantitative easing.
Markets Today: Draghi’s (almost) last stand
A stimulus boost from the ECB is widely anticipated.
Markets Today: Bond yields rising
Globally yields are on the rise again.
Markets Today: Bonds sold off
Bond yields have paved down across the world, driven by a sell-off in German bunds.
Markets Today: Trade war impacts as ECB prepares to pull out the stops
US payrolls numbers disappointed a little on Friday and China’s trade numbers over the weekend demonstrated what impact the trade war is having.
Markets Today: Talks back on, bonds sell off
There’s been big moves on equities and bonds today as talks between the US and China appear to be back on.
Markets Today: USD weaker on HK, UK & Italy’s positive news
The US dollar is weaker today on the back of positive developments in other parts of the world.
Markets Today: US manufacturing shows cracks, Brexit delays & Aussie GDP today
Very soon it’s likely that the UK parliament will take the first step to delaying Brexit, allowing for yet more negotiating time with the EU.
Markets Today: Is a pre-Brexit election looming?
Boris Johnson stood outside No. 10 Downing Street earlier, saying he didn’t want an election before the Brexit deadline.
Markets Today: New month, new tariffs, new uncertainty
In the US new tariffs on Chinese imports kicked in over the weekend,.
Markets Today: China’s olive branch supports risk-on mood
In the US, the dollar, equities and bond yields have all risen on the news that China would rather talk than retaliate.
Markets Today: proroguing to Brexit
UK politics has turned even more toxic with Prime Minister Boris Johnson suspending parliament from September 12, for five weeks.
Markets Today: Markets fall after yesterday’s false hope
Markets have taken a hit as much of yesterday’s optimism subsides.
Markets Today: trade war turnaround & Germany downturn
The markets have done a complete u-turn overnight on the back of positive news on the US China trade talks and some wins from the G7 summit, including proposals to reform WTO rules and a potential US Iran meeting.
Markets Today: trade war ratchets up
China’s official response to President Trump’s latest round of import tariffs sent markets into a spin on Friday.
Markets Today: US & Europe manufacturing weak
Markit PMIs show US manufacturing has contracted, whilst in Europe it remains in a slump but hasn’t fallen as far as anticipated.
Markets Today: A divided Fed & a failed bond auction
The FOMC minutes released highlight the divisions in the Fed at their last meeting.
Markets Today: Markets retreat as Conte goes
The markets retreated from yesterday’s optimism.
Markets Today: USD, equities & bond yields rise
A wave of positivity seems to have hit the markets.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2019
Resilient cattle and lamb prices sustain flat NAB Rural Commodities Index.
Markets Today: Germany to spend
The surprise news on Friday were reports that the German government might relax some of its spending rules to splash out and prevent a recession.
Markets Today: China’s retaliation & Europe’s big bazooka add to bond rally
An ECB Governing Council member suggests markets hadn’t priced in the extent of the stimulus measures coming next month.
FX podcast: revised AUD outlook
In this month’s FX Podcast, Ray Attrill and Phil Dobbie discuss NAB’s revised outlook for the AUD.
Markets Today: Bond yields & equities dive
It’s far from a quiet day in markets.
Markets Today: Tariff delays bring swift response
There’s been a sharp turnaround in market sentiment as the US announced delays to the extra tariffs on Chinese imports for certain consumer-sensitive products.
Markets Today: Argentina election shock & HK airport closure
There’s a continued risk-off mood in the markets today, not helped by protestors forcing the closure of Hong Kong Airport and a surprise defeat of Argentina’s President Macri in primary elections at the weekend.
Markets Today: Forecasts revised as trade tensions rise
The US President hinted that a resumption of trade talks with China wasn’t a done deal, adding uncertainty in an already shaky market.
Markets Today: China fixes whilst US fiddles
Are the markets more concerned about the relative strength of the Chinese currency than they are about tariffs?
Markets Today: Germany & NZ send markets on a rollercoaster
It’s been a hectic 24 hours, with shares falling them climbing back, with bond yields doing the same.
Markets Today: China helps the bounce back
US stocks have bounced back and the US dollar has picked up against the Yen.
Markets Today: Market Frenzy on Chinese trade response
Markets continued in risk-off mood as China announced its response to President Trump’s threat of extended import tariffs.
Markets Today: Market prices US-China trade escalation
There was a swift market reaction to President Trump’s announcement of further tariffs on imports from China
Markets Today: Trump goes all the way on China tariffs
A tweet from President Trump promising a 10% tariff on the remainder of imports from China has sent the markets into a tailspin.
Markets Today: Fed cuts as expected but markets still react
There was some short-term market reaction during Powell's press conference.
Markets Today: Fed decision, Aussie & European inflation, & the falling pound
Get ready for a busy 24 hours.
Markets Today: Hard Brexit or quick election?
The pound took another hit today, now at its lowest level since March 2017.
Markets Today: Stronger earnings, surprising GDP, no grand deal
The US finished on a high last week.
Markets Today: Draghi ignores the freefall – for now
The latest IFO readings have shown a sharp downturn.
Markets Today: European manufacturing weakens
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs are well down, hitting a seven-year low in Germany.
Markets Today: China trade talks next week
US shares were doing well ahead of the news that trade talks would resume between the US and China next week.
Markets Today: Tying up loose ends before recess
The race is on to try and get through stuff before the summer recess in the US and Europe.
Markets Today: Cuts out of context
There was a reversal of fortunes on Friday as the NY Fed clarified comments from their President John Williams the day before.
Markets Today: Heading for a half percent cut?
Could the Fed be careering to a half percent rate cut at the end of the month?
Markets Today: A darker shade of beige
The Fed’s Beige Book is out this morning.
FX Podcast: FED likely to cut rates; what’s next for the AUD?
Ray Attrill discusses whats next for the AUD as it returns above 0.70 USD.
Markets Today: Mixed US data
US retail sales were strong but t’s not all good news.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2019
The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 0.5% in June.
Markets Today: China’s stimulus helps
China's industrial production numbers were far better than anticipated.
Markets Today: China trade slows
China reported disappointing import numbers at the close on Friday.
Markets Today: rising inflation doesn’t budge Powell
Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t alter his stance despite signs of inflation picking up in the US.
Markets Today: Powell ignores payroll
Jerome Powell has sent the markets back to where they were before the non-farm payrolls data last week.
Markets Today: Tariffs bite
Ray Attrill explains how the latest small business survey data in the US shows signs that tariffs on Chinese imports might be starting to make their mark.
Markets Today: Markets on hold
There were no big movements on US equities or bonds overnight, as markets wait to see what Jerome Powell has to say in his Congressional testimonies mid-week.
Markets Today: Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
The US payrolls data was stronger than expected on Friday.
Markets Today: Trade slow; yields lower
Trading has been thin as US markets closed for the 4th July holiday.
Markets Today: Record highs on equities; bond yields fall
US equities took an early mark on record highs, whilst bond yields fell further.
Markets Today: Carney’s shipwreck
Global bond yields have fallen after BoE Governor Mark Carney warned of a shipwreck to the global economy if trade tensions intensify.
Markets Today: RBA in Darwin adding heat to the economy
The RBA meets in Darwin today and is expected to cut interest rates.
Markets Today: G20 Boom Boom Pow? Unlikely
The markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Trump-Xi meeting at the weekend culminated in some sort of truce.
Markets Today: False hope on G20?
Markets seem to indicate a little optimism on the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 this weekend.
Markets Today: Bond yields bounce back
Will interest rates in the UK go up or down?
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2019
Cattle markets and southern rain stabilises NAB's Rural Commodities Index
Markets Today: Record low yields in Europe
Risk adversity drives yields to record lows in Europe.
Markets Today: Trump warns Iran
Even an executive order declaring more sanctions against Iran did little to influence markets.
Markets Today: glimmer of hope for Europe
European markets reacted to better than expected PMI numbers on Friday
Markets Today: After the Fed
The market continues to respond to the Dovish Fed statement yesterday with a rally in US equities, falls in Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar.
Markets Today: The Fed, Lowe, BoJ & Bojo
The Fed has kept rates on hold but have kept the door wide open for future rate cuts.
Markets Today: Draghi dovish; China talks hopeful
There’s been a lot of movement in equities and bonds.
Markets Today: All eyes on Portugal, the Gulf & US
What picture will Mario Draghi paint of the European economy at the ECB forum today and what does he intend to do about it?
Markets Today: Lower inflation, yields & rates
There are rate meetings for the FOMC, Bank of Japan and Bank of England this week, as well as the ECB Forum opening in Portugal tonight.
Strategic FX update: June 2019
In this month’s currency podcast, our Head of FX Strategy discusses some changes to NAB’s FX AUD forecasts.
Markets Today: Rate cut expectations rise; Gulf unrest grows
The Aussie dollar was the worst performing of the major currencies overnight following yesterday’s unemployment numbers.
Markets Today: Pipeline sanctions threat as Trump turns focus to Europe
News of President Trump threatening sanctions on Germany had an immediate impact on the Euro.
Markets Today: China’s stimulus boosts equities – for a bit
China is doing what it can to boost infrastructure investment.
Markets Today: Markets react to end of Mexican stand off
There’s a ‘risk on’ mood in the markets this morning after Friday’s u-turn by the US President over Mexican tariffs.
Markets Today: An optimistic ECB despite everything
The Euro rose today after the ECB spoke little of new measures to combat the economic downturn.
Markets Today: Too much oil, hope for Mexico and ECB on hold?
Markets are hopeful that a deal will be reached between the US and Mexico, and tariffs will be avoided.
Markets Today: Powell’s balancing act; Lowe hints at more cuts
There’s been a sharp rise in US equities after comments from the Fed’s Jerome Powell, signalling rate cuts are likely.
Markets Today: RBA rate cut, Fed to follow
The RBA is expected to cut interest rates today, but more interesting will be what Philip Lowe says this evening.
Markets Today: Trade battles drives further uncertainty
The market continues to adjust to the expectation that the US-China trade spat won’t disappear in a hurry.
Markets Today: Treasury yields fall further as rate cut expectations rise
Treasury yields have continued their downward direction indicating growing expectations for a Fed rate cut – possibly three.
Markets Today: More risk off, rate cut talk & downward revisions
How far do US stocks need to fall before the President takes note and tries to resolve the US-China dispute?
Markets Today: Party for two
Consumer confidence in the US hit a six month high, yet there’s a continued flight to bonds, pushing Treasury yields to the lowest level since September 2017.
Markets Today: EU election aftermath
There are repercussions being felt across the continent following the election.
Markets Today: EU votes, Tories squabble, Trump golfs
Markets calmed a great deal on Friday.
Markets Today: Cold war
There have been significant moves overnight, with the US dollar losing ground against the Yen and Swiss Franc.
Markets Today: FOMC patient, May stubborn, Trump determined
In the FOMC minutes the Fed reiterated its pledge to wait and see on interest rates.
Markets Today: Huawei on hold & Lowe goes lower
US equities have been boosted by a brief reprieve on Huawei trading restrictions.
Strategic FX update: May 2019
Join NAB's Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill as he sits down with Phil Dobbie to discuss his outlook for the FX market.
Markets Today: Will Powell and Lowe hint at rate cuts today?
Bond yields have risen slightly ahead of Jerome Powell’s talk today - will he give a strong hint a rate cut is coming? And will Philip Lowe from the RBA be doing the same?
Markets Today: An election surprise
Following the Coalition’s surprise victory on Saturday night, we’re already seeing a rise in the Aussie dollar.
Markets Today: US against the rest
Overnight we saw rising US share indices and a strengthening dollar.
Markets Today: Markets buoyed by reports of auto tariff delay
US and European equities are up again on reports President Trump is delaying auto-tariffs due to kick in this weekend.
Markets Today: ‘Turnaround Tuesday’
In Europe they’ve nicknamed last night as 'Turnaround Tuesday as stocks regained much of their losses.
Markets Today: Markets hit as China bites back
Stocks, currencies, bonds and commodities have all felt the impact as China responds to US tariffs.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.1% in April, largely reflecting higher cattle, lamb, dairy and cotton prices, offsetting further declines in grain.
Markets Today: US China trade dispute intensifies
The US President has threatened further tariffs on China over the weekend, on top of those imposed on Friday.
Markets Today: Tariff deadline hours away
The imposition of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports is just hours away.
Markets Today: Markets resting on hope of a tariff delay
US equities have partially reversed their declines.
Markets Today: No deals, no rate cut & little Euro-growth
US equities have been knocked again as increased tariffs from the US on Chinese imports are looking more likely than not.
Markets Today: Will the RBA cut rates today?
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the RBA could cut interest rates today.
FX podcast – RBA Alert: AUD sub 70? Are you ready?
David De Garis discusses what to expect at tomorrow's RBA meeting.
Markets Today: US week-end tariff spat
The US President has been on Twitter in the last few hours threatening to lift tariffs on China by the end of the week
Markets Today: One day after the Fed
The market continues to react to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s ‘transitory’ remark on low inflation yesterday.
Markets Today: Powell’s tightrope walk on inflation
Markets moved sharply during Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Markets Today: the world waits for the Fed
It’s less than a day before the FOMC meets and Jerome Powell talks to the press.
Markets Today: US spending rises, inflation softer
It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours as markets wait for word from the Fed later in the week.
Markets Today: Soft in the centre
Friday’s headline US GDP numbers was surprisingly strong.
Markets Today: Is a RBA rate cut even more likely?
It’s been a dovish couple of days for central banks.
Markets Today: US equities ride high
Earnings results have pushed US equities to record highs.
Markets Today: US blanket ban on Iranian oil
The Trump administration announces an end to waivers for nations buying Iranian oil.
Markets Today: What Chinese slowdown?
China delivered some more positive results in the last 24 hours.
Markets Today: Credit where credit is due
The OECD suggests China’s stimulus measures may only offer short term benefits but the markets are happy to ignore the long term impacts.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2019
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 2.7% in March, largely reflecting lower cattle, grain and fruit prices.
Markets Today: China numbers boosts risk appetite
Last week finished on a positive note, sparked by a strong bounce back in credit growth in China, together with very strong export numbers.
Markets Today: Near half century low for US jobless claims
The US dollar was helped overnight with surprisingly low jobless claims numbers in the US.
Markets Today: Black hole brighter than May’s future?
What did the RBA’s Guy Debelle say yesterday to spur the Aussie dollar on so much?
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 0.2% in February – “above water” only due to strong gains in fruit and vegetables, dairy and to a lesser extent wool and sugar.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: February 2019
We forecast that ABS retail trade for February will grow for a second consecutive month, following a weak Christmas period and a subdued January ABS print.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: January 2019
We forecast that ABS retail trade will return to growth – albeit modestly – in January 2019.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2019
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was up 0.5% in December but down 1.1% in January.
Markets Today: stronger equities, weaker bond yields
The dovish tone set by the Fed yesterday has seen renewed vigour in the US equity markets helped by further strong earnings.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2018
Conditions end the year on a concerning low.
Markets Today: Europe’s weakening economy
European PMIs came out weaker than expected. That, together with a downbeat Mario Draghi, saw the Euro weaken.
Market’s Today: Writing’s on the wall
Negativity on the state of the global economy has managed to overshadow positive earning results from US companies.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2018
This month we continue our podcast series to accompany the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index. It’s a short, 10 minute podcast, designed to give you a quick summary of the major drivers of the index this month. To listen, just click the link below.
China economic update: 2019 podcast
Get up to speed on the key themes for the Chinese economy in 2019 with our latest podcast.
Markets Today: IMF’s glass half empty, Xi warning on social stability
On a quiet day on the markets (due to Martin Luther King Day in the US) the main focus has been, again on Brexit.
Markets Today: China to go shopping, UK to vote again?
There was renewed hope at the tail end of last week the answer to the US China trade dispute isn’t far away.
Markets Today: Delays, good and bad
There’s still no sign of an end to the US China trade dispute as the end of the cease-fire period draws closer.
Markets Today: A longer Brexit (maybe), a boost for US banks & a bad night for the AUD
Theresa May has won the confidence vote in her government, so she can battle on with Brexit.
Markets Today: Brexit vote defeat, confidence vote & a Sterling hit
Theresa May’s government faced a massive defeat in Parliament with a 230 vote loss on their Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Markets Today: Shutdown, slowdown and voted down
The US government shutdown is now in its 25th day but the direction of the global economy is a bigger concern.
Markets Today: Optimism despite shutdowns, recession prospects & a meaningless vote
The shutdown impacting parts of the US government remains, the passing of Theresa May’s meaningful vote on Brexit seems unlikely and negative data from Europe has some wondering whether the region is already in recession.
Markets Today: Good things come in threes
It was far from a quiet Christmas period, with volatility driven by data, trade concerns, a government shutdown and a very different attitude coming from the US Fed.
Markets Today: 2018 in Review
2018 has been a year of surprises. In the final podcast for the year, the team discuss the year that was and what to expect in 2019.
Markets Today: (If you’re not in it for love) I’m outta here!
US stocks have fallen markedly since the Fed meeting yesterday, with the dollar also taking a hit and the yield curve flattening a little.
Markets Today: Fed not dovish enough?
Does the message from the US Fed set the right tone given sensitivities in the markets right now?
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index November 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index rose 0.6% in November on a month-on-month basis, repeating its 0.6% (revised) increase in October.
Markets Today: Oil lower, Euro economy weaker
Oil fell even further overnight.
Markets Today: A sea of red
Equities, oil and bond yields are all down.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: December 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 2.0% on a month on month basis in November, mirroring a 2.0% gain in October.
Markets Today: Driving down for Christmas?
US shares were pummelled on Friday as fears of a global slowdown widen.
Markets Today: ECB ends QE on a dovish note
Mario Draghi’s fear of growing downside risks didn’t do too much damage to the Euro.
Markets Today: These foolish things
US equities have had a shot in the arm following a Wall Street Journal report that China might open up access to their domestic markets for foreign companies.
Markets Today: China Car tariffs reversed & a government shutdown
A positive reaction to reports China might drop tariffs on US car imports reversed by threats from President Trump about a possible government shutdown if he doesn’t get the funding to build the wall.
Podcast: NAB Monthly Business Survey, November 2018
The latest NAB business survey shows further weakness in business conditions.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: November 2018
Both business conditions and confidence continued their downward trend in November.
Markets Today: Pound pummelled as May delays
The pound has taken a hit on the increased uncertainty on where Brexit is heading.
Markets Today: Weak jobs data, trade tensions & a Brexit to nowhere
The markets reacted sharply to weaker than expected payrolls data from the United States.
Markets Today: Markets dive on Huawei arrest & OPEC indecision
There were big falls in equities in the US and across Europe overnight, with rises in bonds, the Yen, Gold and the Swiss Franc reinforcing the risk-off mood.
Markets Today: China’s Q&A, May’s legal advice & Australia’s GDP
Chinese authorities issued a Q&A which seems to have buoyed markets a little.
Markets Today: Flatter curves, the Tariff Man & a government in contempt
Risk sentiment has turned sour all of a sudden, with flattening yield curves preying heavily on the concerns of investors.
Markets Today: Is US-China deal euphoria hiding the real picture?
Equities were boosted overnight by the positive (temporary) deal between the US and China.
Podcast: NAB Monthly Business Survey, October 2018
Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks through the findings in the latest NAB Business Survey.
Wheat Growers’ Podcast: Harvest crop condition and markets
As harvest gets started, hear from growers and traders across the country on the first NAB Growers’ Podcast.
Podcast: Greece Referendum Fallout
In this special edition podcast, Peter Jolly, NAB Global Head of Research, and Peter Hartley, NAB Business Markets - Foreign Exchange, discuss the latest developments in the Greece referendum fallout.